Handwriting On The Wall For Early 2017
Met Museum online collection of artwork. Philippine pendant, 17th-19th century. From rich heritage, we are going where, exactly?
By Popoy del R. Cartanio
It’s only the second month of 2017 and the world so called now the global village faces big problems which never before should frighten anyone. Every new year brings feelings of uncertainties rather than assured progress and peace. From the millennium 16 years had passed with inhabited earth still intact despite occurrences of man-caused or natural calamities. Life seems to have proceeded in improved and sophisticated degrees. This is due PRIMARILY to non-political contributions and advances in STEM (science, technology, engineering and math). Increased global cooperation likewise weighed in to balance peace and harmony among countries.
The new year began with talk of a big war more destructive than WWI and WWII. Former Russian President Mikhail Gorbachev who was catalyst responsible for the demolition of the Berlin Wall and ended the cold war has warned that countries seemed preparing for nuclear war. Stephen K. Bannon who had been appointed member of the powerful US National Security Council by President Trump had been reported earlier to have predicted the impending world war happening in three to five years.
Author Popoy
Not all is also peace and quiet in Europe. The leaders of the three big powers namely, US, China and Russia are girding for a new kind of trilateral relationship which may tackle dangerous behavior of rogue North Korea. Middle East power muscles like Iran, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and other oil nations not to mention Israel constitute delicate variables which could be implicated in any world war.
The Philippines itself had shown hints of good bye to old relations with USA and welcome new friendly relations with Russia. Exchanged state visits between the Philippines President and Japan’s Prime Minister indicate revitalized alliance for war and peace between the two countries. Philippines had also accepted the mantle of leadership for ASEAN whose member countries include Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia, Myanmar, Laos and Brunei. Philippines perforce must demonstrate leadership and competence in regional diplomacy and development.
How the Philippines will traverse 2017 gets its answer from the posturing of the powers-that-be in the government, in media, in NGOs and in other people’s organizations. Their discourse and analysis of the here and now could augur well or be portentous of what’s in store for tomorrow and later. So far my watching, listening and reading here and there tells me unfortunately that there is preponderance of shallow analysis (napakababaw) of seminal actors and political events.
For example, to believe and indicate support for the unprecedented political action of the elected President against illegal drugs powered by alleged extra-judicial killings as justified because of the overwhelming votes of more than 16 million voters could be spurious or weak logic. Unless facts are checked and verification are done as to how the President was truthfully voted into power the claims and justification do not wash. It could likely be that in a corrupt polity that political power resides somewhere else not among the voters. Not voters but political power has-beens or cultist religion were the ones choosing the winners.
COMELEC and media can find that out: how secret money, apart from legal campaign contributions raised are reported and how the loyalty votes (the Ilocano, Pampanga fiefdoms and religious block voting) were delivered could belie the semblance of the democratic process in choosing leaders through popular elections.
The founding fathers of the USA in their wisdom may have seen and provided remedies against subtle aberration of the election process by enshrining in their Constitution the role of electoral college. Ideally (not provided by the current Philippine Constitution), as an example, an overwhelming win in some towns of provinces or whole region under control and influence of a family dynasty should not prevail over the votes delivered in the country’s whole 18 regions. Who won in majority of the Barangays should be the more representative and authentic decision of the people.
Events which are continuing to the rest of 2017 and even beyond; after they began during the last two weeks could be high intensity earthquakes for President Rodrigo Duterte’s person and those of his cabinet members with even after shocks adversely affecting the large majority of the population. To name some in random order: (1) PNP and the murder of the Korean businessman inside the Police National Headquarters, (2) Waking up from deep sleep of the Catholic Church on the issue of EJK, (3) the completion (not the end) of the peace talk and cancellation of the cease fire truce both by the CPP-NDP-NPPA and Philippines government, (4) failed visit of UN official to monitor the drug war, (5) the burial of late President Marcos to the Heroes Cemetery; (6) the investigation and report of the AI (Amnesty International) about EJK (extra judicial killings) as a crime of genocide as sufficient case for trial by the International Criminal Court, and for sanctions by the International Court of Justice, (7) the sudden stoppage or suspension of the anti-illegal drug program and activities; (8) the irreparable verdict by the President of the PNP as a damaged institution; (9) continuing operations against Muslim rebels in Mindanao, (10) continuing loss of lives of AFP soldiers to operations of the NPA, (11) the expected resurgence of guerrilla war against the Communists New Peoples Army and (12) etc., etc.
These 11 specific events I am very sure have been explicated on the pages of Manila and ASEAN newspapers, in TSOH blog, even in BALITA Toronto as the main news source of Fil-Canadians in Ontario. THESE ARE EVENTS, not judgments and criticisms but red flags and wake up calls.
These events cry for focus and study and rehab of policy and action. But the important summative view is that all of them tells something very negative on the administration of Philippines’ President Duterte. And could presume the unraveling of unintegrated pieces of the Duterte program of government.
All events listed could bring about suggestions of incompetence in policy formulation and policy execution. It even suggests extreme need for the bureaucracy for orientation training in the whole gamut of governance paradigm circumscribing clarity and action on : National Goals into National Objectives into National Policy into Programs into Projects into Activities into Tasks. The warning bells are contained in the waffles of a seamless and fluid General Appropriations Act (GAA) first enacted by the current administration. The parts of the GAA should be highly integrated, SOLID.
For example into the paradigm labyrinth of the Illegal Drug Problem, the application of Capital Punishment and EJK should be contrasted and evaluated minutely against eradication of illegal drug production. When there thrive trees that bear poisoned fruits that do not kill eaters outright but inflict untold sufferings, will killing eaters solve the policy problem? Should it not consider efficacious and effective to COMLETELY ERADICATE production by killing the poison bearing trees instead of the eaters.
It should be noted that simplifying issues through its little parts leads to understanding of a complex whole which in the case of illegal drugs also includes importation, transportation and physical distribution.
About training to do a good job, does civilian administration really does NOT know why in the military new recruits and regular troops jointly have regular exercises on many aspects of combat and battle to acquire and maintain competence? The makings of a public service technocrat comes from training and re-training on Macro Problem Solving techniques.
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Republished concurrently here with permission from BALITA Toronto (February 15-28, 2017 Issue). Ed.
The Society of Honor by Joe America 
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1. Indeed, there is much to look forward to in 2017, if “forward” is the right word.
2. As far as I can recall, two proposals have been discussed here to overcome the problem of first-past-the-post or simple plurality voting:
o. Runoff voting (two-round system)
o Preferential voting (one-round system)
2.1. The idea of using the results of barangay votes as some sort of electoral college is new. It’s certainly worthy of study. However, just off the cuff, I believe the tentacles of the dynasties reach down to the barangay level, and we might see the same distortions in the election results as we see in the electoral college, mainly that the winner may not be representative of the popular votes.
Some things to note:
o There is an uneven minimum required number of residents per barangay: 5,000 in Metro Manila and in highly urbanized cities and just 2,000 in other cities and municipalities
o Manila has 2% of the number of barangays but has only 1.7% of the population.
o Region 8 (Eastern Visayas) has 10% of the number of barangays (4,390 out of 42,028) but only 4.40% of the population.
2.2. Runoff voting is costly and preferential voting is complex. Given a choice, I prefer the latter.
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If there would be a choice between runoff and preferrential, I think the sigle round preferential nothwithstanding its complexities would still be simpler and less costly than the two-round system.
The operation of the preference voting system requires that the parties or individual candidates, have representatives at polling booths to hand out “How to vote Cards” showing voters how to allocate their preferences if they want to follow the recommendation of their preferred party or individual candidate.
This sounds complex.But from experience it is relatively straight forward. It just needs the people on the ground.Here they are all volunteers – loyal party members. But I guess in the Philippines some folks would wind up being paid to assist in this way by party bosses
Nice point about sample ballots.
Then the possibility or risk of voting by “example” might happen in the start.
But there will always be risks.
We too have sample ballots, maybe some voters just copy the sample ballots, if they do not have their own lists.
In a nutshell.
Popoy, your “Handwriting on the Wall” blog is a related to a previous blog on the Pushback by the Institutions. That is, if the clock can be turned back, your blog could have nicely preceded Joe’s Pushback Blog. I may add that, though not to a scale desired(yet), there is some sort of self-correction in the evolution of events.
Thanks NH: First thought came to mind: some of the events would Not have happened yet. Second thought: Mental (intangbles) against physical body (tangibles) regarding time travel for example a lottery machine programmed 4 hours late after the draw can make its owner (the Boss) always betting on the winning jackpot numbers. History deals with the past. I emailed PNoy (not interested, no pansin whatsoever at all) on how his administration can use history to stop corruption. It’s about time to permit to corrupt history to stop corruption in business and in government. It is like formulating Einstein’s E=mc2 in social science PD = VB + M where PD stands for Political Dynasty; VB is Vote Buying and M is Mendicancy. The whole thing is hallucinatory and mere deduction unless deep refinements is done by research on the equation variables.
Again, well-said, but in different syntax of the English language. What is evident is that the administration policies are haywire and going wrong. And the logic of the 16M voters does not really hold water anymore, because these do not constitute the majority.
And the approval ratings? Could this mean that if a reelection was organized today he would have more votes? Should election day results trump approval rating during the whole legislation or the first 6 month or…? Let us be careful in “reading” the mood of the country and conclude the electoral system has to change.
Some of the 11 events might reduce his standings (1, 3), some might increase (see * below) and some are opportunities to show his adored “macho leadership” (9,10,11).
*(2: low respect for some clergy, conflict on RH and divorce,
4 &6:” it is our country, keep out arrogant kanos”
5: result of the effective disinformation campaign by Imelda and co.
7: he has shown that he is strong, dares to kill, doesn’t need it anymore
8: we all know the police, it was the least trusted institution, the President confirmed it now)
Approval ratings: This is no longer about the 16 million who voted for Duterte, this may or may not include those who did not vote for Dutete, but is now supportive of Duterte’s programs.
Now that is the public’s mood, if we go back to the presidents mood.
He said he will pardon police if found guilty( though very impossible, only pending cases of 20 years will have a decision during his term).
Now he says that almost half of the institution is corrupt, “corrupt to the core” was his words.
His peace talks termination with the NDF seems to be exaggerated, now there are reports that peace talks will resume.
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I think the point in refining the electoral system is to establish clear majority rule.
Then there is no chance of “misreading” the mood of the country. The will of the majority of the people will be clear, and the elected president can truly claim he has the support of the majority.
The difficulty with majority rule is that it can lead to a tyranny of the majority where, in the Philippines, the majority are the D (60%) and E (30%) classes.
There are ways of guarding against the tyranny of the majority by setting qualifications as to who can vote. I reject these ways as being undemocratic. The theory is one man equals one vote, regardless of status.
What I proposed before was to set qualifications, not for the voters, but for the candidates. In a way, this is also undemocratic in that anyone should be able to run for office. But we have already set some qualifications that candidates must meet — such as age, citizenship, residence, and literacy — so it would be simpler to add more qualifications.
The minimum additional qualifications I propose are:
o Degree in public administration or an equivalent (e.g., law or medical degree)
o Must be in good health
o Must not be dynastic
o Must not have been convicted of a crime
o Must not have surrendered Philippine citizenship at any time
The Constitution states that public officers must “accountable to the people, serve them with utmost responsibility, integrity, loyalty, and efficiency; act with patriotism and justice, and lead modest lives.” I am trying to think of a criterion for “lead modest lives” but cannot come up with any. Perhaps something to do with SALNs?
Other qualifications I can think of are:
o Must not have acted as a lead in a comedy movie or TV production
o Must not have a degree in culinary arts
o Must not have engaged as a pugilist
*****
“Must not have acted as a lead in a comedy movie or TV production”
then almost all who have taken part in House Hearings are disqualified.
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Irineo, right on!
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So people from a skilled working trade background would not be eligible Edgar ? I think in Australia that would have eliminated 6 of our prime ministers never mind most members of parliament..
In the Philippines what you propose would prevent all folks without about 6 years of tertiary education. That is about 99% of the entire population…
Effectively you are suggesting a dictatorship of the certified tertiary educated elite…Guaranteed to generate a violent revolution from those with less certificates ?
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Bill in Oz,
Different countries, different rules.
1. If trade unionism stewardship is the equivalent of a degree in public administration, why not?
2. 99%? Why use the entire population as the base? In 2010, the number of registered voters was 51.2M. The estimated number of tertiary graduates was 4.6M. There were 3.9M tertiary undergraduates. Effectively, 9% of the registered voters were full college graduates.
3. I am partly suggesting a meritocracy — nurture vs. nature. But there are no guarantees.
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edger, I greatly object to the other qualifications you listed because had those been imposed you would have prevented my idols from becoming Senators — Sotto, Binay (?), Pacquiao.
I would rather you include those who wear toupees.
🙂
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NHerrera, I’m sorry.
Compromise? I agree to drop the third but not the first, mindful of Irineo’s insight
I will take your suggestion under consideration. Nah, approved!
I think wigs act in reverse of tinfoil hats, which protects one “from government surveillance or mind control by extraterrestrial beings.” Wigs encourage government surveillance on others and exert mind control from kubol inmates.
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According to wiki, Nancy B started with Culinary, but graduated with a Tourism degree.
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Thanks, Karl.
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Welcome, Edgar.
Is it necessary to copy existing systems? Why not an out of the box solution? E.g.:
Select the Citizen Electoral College with a random number system. The College gets a boot camp in political matters by a random team of career civil servants and from the academe. Then they go into enclave as the cardinals do and discuss until a majority candidate is found and they can produce white smoke or a twitter message. The system could layered, a provincial college selecting between provincial candidates for the national convention that will select the president.
Parallel the different regions or region clusters could assign random citizen teams could set limits for the budget, taxation rules and discuss the priorities for the coming administration. This is done yearly, the citizen chamber is refreshed 30% every 6 month, new recruits to attend a political boot camp too.
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Ah, innovative thinking!
Sort of like a rolling jury system — let the people decide. The great advantage is active citizen participation year-round rather than just the present triennial voting.
I also like the white-smoke stuff… just make sure it’s not from shabu.
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If I may. Think classical, Go European, devour the pertinence of their Reformation and their Renaissance. Think Modern, be the apostle of STEMG (science, technology, engineering, math, genetics) GO hybrid like the Americans, British, the Japanese and Koreans with their hybrid cars, not copy products in toto like what’s done by the new world taipans. Invent a hybrid government machine derived from the Westminster Model and the US D.C. model. Democracy is a continuing experiment while communism remains a mutant endangered specie continuing its avowed classless struggle.
For hybrid cars to go driverless and fly like oversized drones in the future, the experiment for change must continue. Even just for peoples’ comfort and convenience. As hybrids (genetics must contribute) dedicated work must be done to make more efficient converting electric energy into mechanical energy; to decrease consumption of heat energy (diesel and petrol) to achieve greater mechanical energy. Far fetch may be this analogizing social science with physical science. But think of a senior citizen’s social comfort if he wears Kevlar vest (anti-pull of gravity) that reduces and converts his body weight from 60 kilograms to 60 grams . No need for crutches and wheel chairs, mobility vehicles for the disabled, EH? It’s the form of government I am thinking.
I like the spiritual or superstitious quality of the smoke and almost royal selection. Write it up, eh?
Barangay election results as electoral college? Hmmmn, this is wonderful. I can imagine Leni Robredo, Bongbong Marcos, Grace Poe, Chiz Escudero, etc., campaigning in all the barangays from Appari to Jolo. This is fun.
shooting from the hip: that will spell dying and death to septuagenarian candidates and will need resources affordable only by a two party system and good bye to party list pseudo representatives of particular sectors. That’s the secret efficacy of the US election system now under very close scrutiny.
It’s necessary, Here’s why. If for example Leni Robredo did campaign in Brgy. Singkamas but skips Brgy. Forbes Park, she will get votes in Brgy. Singkamas but zero vote in Brgy. Forbes Park. That simple.
Farther, this barangay electoral voting will eliminate the septuagenarians like Duterte, and Erap, and Binay, etc., and that’s a good thing.
I wrote some pieces before in TSOH. I am thankful the algebra of comments of the Society’s honorables (all of ‘em) I observed to be incrementally and summarily positive. The comments add more than they subtract, enriches more than debilitate the discourse. So I am thankful and when need be, I stand corrected.
About the Barangay, proper and competent governance require progressive (not static) knowledge on how it works and how it can evolve into decent human settlements. Okay such and such is the required minimum population. What is the predetermined optimum population size? What is the ideal PSES (political, social, and economic Statistics) characteristics for a viable sub-town? What happens if there is predetermine maximum, and when the maximum is exceeded. If there are say 42,000 Barangays in the country, how many are obscenely well off; how many are shame, shame sickeningly worst off? Consider population density of Barangay Forbes Park (please check) and compare it with Barangay Singkamas in Makati City where there is one person for every 15 square meters and that’s a recall from stats 12 years ago.
The heavily plundered pork barrel and misspent intelligence funds which among real fearful reasons bulldozed the death penalty into atmospheric suspension should have gone to develop and uplift the Barangays. For fiscal year 2017 the total government budget is pesos 3.35 trillion (three thousand three hundred fifty billion pesos TAMA BA?) or US $67.2 billion ( sixty-seven thousand two hundred million million dollars please correct me). If seepage and leakage to corruption is only 20 per cent which is not and probably higher; the obsolete classic electronic calculator may not have the required zeros. If the leakage (still beyond the ambit of REM dreams) will be allocated to the Barangays, Philippine little communities will be like UK, some EC and Scandinavian rural villages.
Serendiptiy – UP Quezon Hall and this piece thanks to joeam.com: https://www.bing.com/news/search?q=The+2017+General+Appropriations+Act+Of+The+Philippine+Government&qpvt=the+2017+general+appropriations+act+of+the+philippine+government&FORM=EWRE
Click to access National%20Capital%20Region.pdf
Barangay Forbes Park-2553
Barangay Singkamas-7426
Barangay Pembo-44 000 plus
population only, not population density.
i could imagine Pembo to be more congested more than singkamas
??? Average size must be close to 2,500 (105 million for 42,000 barangay)
Barangay Forbes is just about the average, most barangays (those that have 5 digits) are outliers.
Karl sometimes only but the comparison is almost cruel, I should not make barangays analogous to jail cells, where floor area is important consideration to preclude the use of hammocks for sleeping space. Moreover, there are bedroom barangays like Makati’s and there are some habitat barangays (of Manila and Quezon City). The amenities requirements are different for decent living.
Very modern and appropriate though when not patients density or spacious wards, a hospital is called, becomes not a barangay but a city.
Karl thanks for checking giving factual numbers.
You are welcome Popoy.
NOT QUITE OFF TOPIC
MANILA – In a resolution filed on Monday, 14 senators virtually blocked a Palace move to withdraw from an international agreement to clear the way for the passage of a bill reviving death penalty in the country.
The resolution expressed the sense of the Senate that any move to withdraw from any treaty that had been concurred in by the Senate will not be valid without their concurrence, as stipulated by the Constitution.
Senator Drilon as author and 13 Senators as co-authors filed the Senate Resolution. Here are the 14 Senators:
01 Angara
02 Aquino IV
03 De Lima
04 Drilon
05 Ejercito
06 Honasan II
07 Hontiveros
08 Lacson
09 Legarda
10 Pangilinan
11 Recto
12 Sotto III
13 Villanueva
14 Zubiri
The other Senators who did not co-author (but some of whom may of course vote for it in senate plenary after debate, if they wish to) are:
01 Binay
02 Cayetano A
03 Escudero
04 Gatchalian
05 Gordon
06 Pacquiao
07 Pimentel
08 Poe
09 Trillanes
10 Villar
Note: I am just a reporter on this one; leaving this without comment.
http://interaksyon.com/article/137041/14-senators-block-palace-move-to-withdraw-from-treaty-vs-death-penalty
Sure looks like push-back to me. I wondered haw Sotto would come down on this. It appears on the side of faith. Poe/Escudero is interesting.
I wonder if Cayetano, Gordon, Pimentel, and Pacquiao are all that will be left in favor of death. This could make the President look weak.
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Is this the handwriting on the wall for Duterte?
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It is, for sure. Add to that his choice of some roily and oily cabinet members, equals a surefire formula for maelstrom. A maelstrom formula of conflict and chaos, instead of the intended peace and order.
Too early to say that, but for sure it is resistance.
Feb 13 Lunes Trece : Is Lunes Trece the anti-thesis of the feared Biyernes Trece?
WHO WERE AFRAID OF THE DEATH PENALTY? How did the fear started? Who/what fanned the flames of fear that led the FIRE Departments to make it ALARM 10 to completely extinguish the fear of death penalty in record time? Go. GO, look for the skeletons and the ashes in the morgues of newspapers, in the preserved tapes of radio and TV archives. Acclaimed then as the world’s fearless and freest press, Philippines’ media could be the hero in bringing out to the world corruption galore in the country.
Is corruption the anti-thesis of capital punishment and vice versa? Death Penalty CURES corruption ditto Corruption CANCELS the death penalty? Then suggesting: Death to the paramount corrupt in government and in business? If an incumbent President says repeatedly like crazy he is not afraid to die for and from whatever while serving the people, WILL the DEATH PENALTY ultimately KILL CORRUPTION not as persons but as HEINOUS IDEA? Thou shalt NOT kill does not seem to apply when evil (corrupt population) is punished through earthquakes, rains and flood and fire along with the innocents as collateral damage. CLM my foot ! N.B. CLM means Criminal Lives Matter might generate income for paid for protesters.
Blogs as the spinal cord of unfettered discourse is more to me the handwriting on the medieval wall (neither of those WALLS in Berlin or New York City). Being smart alecky NOT angry: is the above paragraph in a different English syntax the meaning of which I’d like to know. Have I been dished out my own medicine I am inflicting to others?
SHOULD read: I am inflicting ON others. As a grade five schooler, I should have keep precious my law student Itay had that little dictionary of Idioms and prepositions.
Binay with the group of Pacquiao because of Father Binay;
Villar, because of son in DPWH?
It takes courage to go with Duterte for a devout Catholic, I think. I don’t know their faiths.
I am being uncharitable there on second thought. There is a line one draws on certain things and this may be the case. That said, there is also the case of the House Members. But then there is the general quality difference of those in the Senate versus the House membership, “devout” Catholicism notwithstanding.
By the way, this Drilon Senate Resolution comes about the same time as the my note about Fr. Tabora of Ateneo de Davao, the erstwhile supporter of Duterte.
Yes, and the motives of the others are of course obvious. Trillanes, somehow, I can understand without knowing exactly why.
If true, this could be the perfect storm for the handwriting on the wall for 2017: Bongbong Marcos’ appointment to the DILG by PRD.
http://politics.com.ph/marcos-back-bongbong-head-dilg/
I completely forgot about charter change, this will be tackled by May.
http://www.rappler.com/nation/161317-house-plenary-debate-charter-change-may
Off topic
Well, the Trump-Trudeau meeting has reportedly gone well.
No physical wall need be built between US-Canada. There is also this Women in Business Partnership thingy. Trudeau, Ivanka striking a nice celebrity kind of picture. All things being equal I understand Trump is soft to celebrity types. NAFTA with Canada is different from NAFTA with Mexico.
The last para is a random halo-halo from my mind. 🙂
(I am mindful that item above is a light news compared to the big US news about NSA Flynn resignation, especially since it relates to possible future relations between US and Russia — if one goes by CNN’s Talking Heads.)
Very nice theoretical discussion ongoing.
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/01/what-the-communication-revolution-means-for-global-leaders-today
However the communication revolution has brought about and is still bringing about a fundamental shift in how we get out info.
Thanks for the link RHiro.
Information companies replaced oil conglomerates as the wealthiest entities ths planet.
Very interesting.
Quite welcome.
Theoretical discussions are clearly very important as they serve as a check on the practice of ideas that are important.
Hence how does information get to the leaders of government is clearly crucial.
They make up their belief systems and play a big part in how leaders act out on policies.
I have placed two links that clearly show the dangers of having a totally ignorant leader who lies to manufacture the pretext for policies. To prepare for the world we live in 2017 it would be helpful top try to understand how leaders process information.
Here in the Philippines it is clear that our leader operates at the lower levels of the human brain. Sometimes he appears demented.
Unleashing a reign of terror by state agents who have a monopoly on violence in the name of a quick resolution of illegal drugs shows in practice his incompetence.
But the differing levels of consciousness of Philippine society make it very difficult to explain to the political economy.
The same holds true in the U.S. “It’s Actually Capitalism Stupid” that is at the root of the problem.
http://www.alternet.org/news-amp-politics/john-olivers-trump-vs-truth-brilliantly-explains-why-presidents-greatest-opponent?akid=15203.199266.dZuthL&rd=1&src=newsletter1072173&t=6