How will we know when our coronavirus curve has peaked?

China’s tabulation, per Wikipedia. We want something simpler, something that says when hospitals get relief.

By Joe America

I’ve read some of the projections done on the coronavirus lifespan but they are complex and all over the place because there are so many unknowns, so many variables.

I’ve been tracking the Department of Health’s daily reports and compiling a record of some key numbers. It seems to me, these can be used to determine when the lifespan curve has peaked and Philippine hospitals start to feel relief.

Let’s start by considering two statistics.

First, there is the matter of demand for beds, which we can track by looking at the daily increase in Persons Under Investigation, Admitted to hospitals (PUI-A). These are people who hospitals say need special care. They can’t just sit at home in isolation. The number of people admitted is growing each day, and that daily growth represents the current “Demand for Beds”.

  • Demand for Beds: the daily increase in PUI-A

Second, there is the matter of beds being cleared. That happens one of two ways. Patients recover or patients die. A bed is available.

  • Beds Cleared: the daily increase in beds available when patients recover or die

When the number of Beds Cleared exceeds the Demand for Beds, and holds for a period of time, say a week, we have reached or passed the peak of the pressure on hospitals. It’s all downhill from there.

Lets look at the facts. Here is a chart showing Growth of the PUI-A population. It’s going up because we are on the upslope of the virus build-up. Each day’s increase represents an additional demand on the health system.

Here is the chart of patients recovering and dying. Both are cumulative and going up because the population of cases is increasing. Put simply and setting the humanitarian aspect aside, beds are being cleared faster as a statistical outcome of a larger patient population.

Here is a chart showing the daily increase in PUI-A (the demand) and the cumulative total of recoveries plus deaths (beds cleared) since March 16.

The volatility of both numbers makes any kind of daily ratio meaningless. The volatility of the dailies can be smoothed by taking a moving five-day average, both for PUI demand and beds cleared, starting with March 20. The demand for beds, five-day average, on March 20 is 66. The beds freed is an average of 3.  The percentage of beds cleared to demand is 4.85%.

We can do the moving five-day average for the rest of the month. Here’s what the trend looks like, graphed:

The demand for beds is outpacing the clearing of beds (we’re less than 100%) and there has been a downtick as patient inflows have accelerated.

With a building patient population, the number of deaths and recoveries also build. It is rather a race as to when beds cleared can handle any additional new patients coming in.

That’s the point at the top of the coronavirus demand curve.

Right now, we have a long way to go.

We also have an index we can track to see how we are doing. For the record, I consider March 3 to be the virus start-up in the Philippines. So we are almost a month in.

 

Comments
93 Responses to “How will we know when our coronavirus curve has peaked?”
  1. karlgarcia says:

    Not in the next two to three weeks.
    It is good that all my worries about faulty test kits fron China are proven wrong, that may accelerate the number of positive cases making demand for beds out pacing those who recovered.

    Ps

    I do not like what is happening namely: LGUS turning bacj non residents.
    People attacking health workers

    The makeshift hispitals must be rushed to accomodate those the hospitals can no linger handle.

    • People attacked doctors in early 19th century Berlin cholera epidemics.

      OK the century before that people were still tried for withcraft, even real doctors.

      • kasambahay says:

        as well, some health workers in pinas have been kicked out of rented accommodations, landlords feared of being infected. apparently, 12 filipino doctors have already died of coronavirus, them being over 60yrs and with previous health condition, asthma mostly.

        methink, landlords are probly seeking higher rental. I would not be surprised if landlords are holding out for incoming chinese health workers and entourage, assuming they’re big spenders.

        • kasambahay says:

          and even today, well documented yan, paramedics and health care workers are being attacked by the very people they came to help: health workers got shoved, spat at, threatened and grabbed by the collar. even hospital staff are threatened as well, chairs thrown at them, yelled at, their work computers pulled off the wall and stomped on.

          demographics are changing fast and people seeking medical help are not always sane, some are high on drugs and very aggressive, very agitated a mere glance would set them.

          security guards are becoming common sight in hospital wards, and hospital staff are taught how to ward off aggression from the public.

  2. karlgarcia says:

    This is good news: more testing lesser fear of the unknown.

    https://www.cnnphilippines.com/news/2020/3/30/FDA-rapid-test-kits.html

  3. Germany measures the speed of the epidemic by the number of days it takes for cases to double.

    Northrhine-Westphalia has now reached 9 days while Bremen is at 9 days, Saarland at seven.

    All 13 other states are at 4-6 days. Merkel said 10 days and above means we are winning.

    Suddeutsche Zeitung also publishes whether the rate is slowing, staying or speeding up.

    No speeding up in any state anymore, some still maintain their rate. Getting there.

    Another important measure is cases per 100k people. Hamburg “leads” with 113.

    Northeast German Mecklenburg has 22 per 100k. Bavaria has 101, very unfortunately.

    This of course only works with extensive testing across an entire country.

  4. karlgarcia says:

    @NH,

    I am waiting for your take.

  5. Micha says:

    We don’t even know the accurate number of infected. Asymptomatic carriers could host a dormant virus which could spread in the next winter season.

    40% accuracy of testing kits from China? WTF!

    • kasambahay says:

      that’s not all po, micha. the chinese health workers from china that will soon be coming to help pinas fight coronavirus are, according to health sec duque, not doctors, not manggagamot, and wont be treating filipino patients. the chinese are health advisers kuno and would need to be housed, accommodated and interpreters found for them. the chinese dont speak english and and duque doesnot speak mandarin.

      yay! duque has found himself chinese overlords. duque’s work will be easier now. except that mayhap duque has to cut health budget further to help pay for the living expenses of the chinese health team, also their salaries maybe, plus the cost of the interpreters, allowances and whatnots.

      and with my problematic eyesight, I’m seeing a white elephant tuloy: very expensive to keep and not of much use, haha.

        • kasambahay says:

          ay, hindi nagkaintindihan, may language problem kasi, haha. the chinese probly thought hinarang sila ni duque, when duque meant to say kumusta kayo, may sariling ppes ba kayong dala o do I have to provide yous with our own ppes?

          expect more misunderstanding po.

        • kasambahay says:

          I’m sorry too, china is doing what it does best: deny, deny, deny the truth! belt and road denial of the truth. and here we are, all belted and railroaded, yay!

          previously, china severely muzzled the doctors in wuhan who 1st encountered the deadly bug and tried to suppressed not only vital info but data as well. until now, china’s data are apparently dubious despite claims of transparency.

          and now, china is doing the suppressing to us, i.e, muzzling us. in my opinion, china’s health team coming here will do all to suppress anything unfavorable to china. and they dont even need emergency power to do that, haha.

          spain, italy, czech republic, turkey also raised the inaccuraracy of chinese test kits and have their findings known to the world, would china muzzle them too? news been released that said countries are sending back the faulty kits to china. the question ngayon, did china really donated those kits, or did we buy them? tambakan tayo ng basurang china.

          china’s test kits are “okay”, says a doh brought down on its knees.

          I hope the filipino doctor who 1st raised the inaccuracy of the chinese test kits will not be made to disappear.

            • kasambahay says:

              doh can always backtrack and say it was under enormous pressure to okay the faulty chinese test kits. there is no shame in backtracking, people do, me specially, haha. flipflopping gawain din yan ng supreme court, doh ought to take leaf from the highest court of the land. it’s okay to flipflop and correct mistakes.

              doh sticking to the original finding that the chinese test kits were faulty? for sure a big and powerful nation like china can take a small scratch on the chin, laughing it off with so long buddy, sorry we shipped you the wrong batch. next batch will be correct and not faulty, happy?

              incidentally, jack ma’s donated test kits cannot be used, yet. the uber rich founder of alibaba nagpadala ng test kits na kulang naman ng parts, reagents not supplied with the kits. ano ba ito? do we have to buy reagents from jack ma and so boost jack ma’s business? parang may string attached yata ang donation niya. maybe, pacquiao can buy those reagents and complete the kits donated by his friend, jack ma.

              beggar us is getting kicked in the teeth 2x in a row, asking donation from dubious people and we got sent dubious products, haha.

              I’m afraid to know tuloy the status of the test kits coming from singapore. pls, not 3x in a row, we can only take so much.

              • kasambahay says:

                and the chinese health team, if they are health team at all and not chinese bureaucrats, ought to get used to being harang. for everyday they come to work, their body temperature will be taken. for the safety of us all.

                our health workers nga, each day they come to work, their body temperature are also being religiously taken.

                I hope the chinese health team dont think it below them to have their temperature taken. not insult yan, just a general precaution that all health workers appreciates.

  6. Bill In Oz says:

    HI Jo,
    What does the ‘demand’ number include ? Is it just public hospital admissions or private hospital admissions as well ?

    Also I am perplexed when I compare the statistics here in Oz with those in the Philippines. Australia with a population of 24 million has 13 deaths caused by COVID 19 with a total of 4250 people diagnosed infected which includes those with only mild symptoms and in isolation at home.
    https://www.covid19data.com.au/
    By contrast in the Philippines there are 1546 people diagnosed with the virus but 78 deaths.( and 42 recovered ) : https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/philippines/

    How can the mortality rate be so different ? This level of mortality should indicate a far higher level of infections in the Philippines.

    I suspect that there are many many people on low incomes who are not seeking any treatment when infected because of the cost of treatment in hospital.

    • Public and private. The Philippines has only now started testing in volume, so expect confirmed cases to shoot up and the death rate to decline. Yes, there are probably a lot of people who won’t seek hospital care.

      • kasambahay says:

        I think, public patients should not be overly worried about medical expenses, sagot ng gobyerno ang medical bills nila habang nasa public hospitals sila at nagpapagamot. even those public hospital outpatients ay may libreng gamot. all they have to do is turn up on appointment day and as usual, wait for hours and hours to be called up. so many public patients, it’s like winning the lotto, still someone has to win it, and their turn will come.

        • The Philippine health system is autocratic at best and cruel at worst, helping the ill to suffer.

        • karlgarcia says:

          Like what we discussed regarding the TB cases, even if it is free, people were still not able to reach their second month of medication for various reasons and one of them is stigma.
          Leprosy come in many forms, they come in the form of TB, AIDS, now COVID.

          People fear the unknown, though testing may reduce or ameliorate those fears, but it came too late for many. Many are being turned away by hospitals from the ERs and just told to Ho home and stay at home.
          Reasons maybe reasonable or not, but this can not be our new normal.

          • karlgarcia says:

            At least we have good news of institutions sheltering the homeless and front liners.
            I guess there is hope for the poor after all..
            Now what about the rich?
            We are worried about the employees, their employers will soon have no money as well.

            We need subsidies for employers,employees, the jobless and the homeless.

            We must learn from this and other than being first world, we must fend for our selves.

            • kasambahay says:

              duterte has emergency power now, he can surely direct money to where it is most needed, and pls not to the pockets of politicians, kapartidos and close allies!

              in his emergency power maiden speech sabi niya there is money, may pera siya, but where is the money? we have yet to see it disburse to the community. money, 5k-8k kuno depending on which area people live, pls let the money be real, not invisible money promised at 4am in the morning only to disappear like mist as the early morning sun rises.

              apparently, list of people recipients are still being made like tanods are very new on the job and has yet to know who is who in their baranggay. god’s nose, tanods have long been listing people in their area, the list updated almost weekly and still they have no list to show?

              still finalising the list pa, always finalising. I hope the list is finished and finalized before coronavirus gets all of them, haha.

  7. Bill In Oz says:

    Joe there is a country far closer to the Philippines which has got this licked : Taiwan !
    Only 306 people diagnosed and only 5 deaths.
    https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/what-taiwan-can-teach-world-fighting-coronavirus-n1153826?fbclid=IwAR0yVUSn_FB286fF2zenxqPwVwyHXJEVmd7ZPz5LphsUS-fesadRapP5sfk#anchor-Bealertandproactive

    Taiwan is just a hours flight from Luzon unlike South Korea.

  8. caliphman says:

    Joe, NH if he is available would be the most valuable contributor to this specific blog. He caught the
    apex at Wuhan earlier than most experts. The problem with using bed statistics is beds after PUIs are among the first to get overcapacity. As it stands Makati Med and St. Luke’s at the Fort gave stopped accepting cases as expected and hospitals throughout should follow. It’s better to get sick earlier than later before healthcare capacity is overwhelmed.

    Good luck and Godspeed.

  9. Bill in Oz,

    Looks like they are using the anti-malaria plus zinc treatment in NY, with positive results!

    Here,

    “Last Wednesday, we published the success story from Dr. Vladimir Zelenko, a board-certified family practitioner in New York, after he successfully treated 350 coronavirus patients with 100 percent success using a cocktail of drugs: hydroxychloroquine, in combination with azithromycin (Z-Pak), an antibiotic to treat secondary infections, and zinc sulfate. Dr. Zelenko said he saw the symptom of shortness of breath resolved within four to six hours after treatment.

    Now, Dr. Zelenko provides updates on the treatment after he successfully treated 699 COVID-19 patients in New York. In an exclusive interview with former New York Mayor, Rudy Giuliani, Dr. Vladmir Zelenko shares the results of his latest study, which showed that out of his 699 patients treated, zero patients died, zero patients intubated, and four hospitalizations.

    Dr. Zelenko said the whole treatment costs only $20 over a period of 5 days with 100% success. He defines success as “Not to die.” Dr. Zelenko first posted his Facebook video message last week calling on President Trump to “advise the country that they should be taking this medication.”

    There are many other success stories about hydroxychloroquine across the country. Last week, Dr. William Grace, an oncologist at Lenox Hill Hospital in New York City, said they’ve not had a single death in their hospital because of hydroxychloroquine. “Thanks to hydroxychloroquine, we have not had a death in our hospital,’ Dr. Grace said.”

    https://techstartups.com/2020/03/28/dr-vladimir-zelenko-now-treated-699-coronavirus-patients-100-success-using-hydroxychloroquine-sulfate-zinc-z-pak-update/

  10. karlgarcia says:

    https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1250885/positive-retests-raise-questions-about-virus-remaining-in-body

    How long does COVID stay n the system quick google searches says 14 days tops.
    But there are cases in China, South Korea, Japan,etc where discharged patients test positive again.

    Another thing to be studied by all the experts,already. overwhelmed experts.

  11. Bill In Oz says:

    Here in Australia Some think I am being ‘obsessive’ on this issue.
    And I have no detailed idea of how things are panning out in the Philippines
    But I wish to see you all stay alive & healthy.
    And that applies even to those who are not my friends.
    Unfortunately here is a lot of blatantly wrong information being posted on social media
    Which will lead to us being infected and maybe getting very ill.
    If you meet the asymptomatic Corona 19 carrier.
    There are a lot of them in every country.
    If you still doubt the need for face masks etc read over this :
    https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2020/03/31/states-counties-cities-personal-you-are-on-self-rescue-now/

  12. Bill in Oz says:

    Here is something new to throw into the discussion : https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-31/qantas-baggage-handlers-test-positive-to-coronavirus-in-sa/12107258

    Today we found out that 6 baggage handlers at Adelaide airport have tested positive. There are not many flights per day now – 90% reduction in fact ! But we have had Australians flying home on special flights from Italy, France, the UK, the uSA and South America.

    And baggage handlers handled their suitcases etc when it was unloaded and sent to the airport carousels for passengers to collect.

    So it seems that this virus can survive on such materials through the long flights back from overseas.

    Are airlines still flying in the Philippines ? If so I wonder how much the virus is being spread vai this route of transmission ?

    • karlgarcia says:

      There are no international and domestic flights now, Bill.

      • Bill In Oz says:

        We still have some international flights arriving with Aussies evacuated from wherever they were beforehand or from Cruise ships. 200 Aussies off a cruise ship arrived on the weekend from Italy on a special flight. All went into quarantine for 14 days. But their baggage was dealt with by local baggage handers at the airport.

  13. josephivo says:

    Miss number of beds created per day. Beds requiring technical equipment and specialized staff and plain beds with generalists.

    Miss the parameter “triage”. Who do we let in and who do we send home, who gets specialized care, who general care. The criteria will shift when the pressure gets higher.

    Will eventually the burden shift to barangay health centers?

    • josephivo says:

      All the graphs and info I’ve seen so far are for developed countries with more or less robust healthcare systems. Can they be extrapolated to more crowded, less developed countries?

    • josephivo says:

      In Belgium hospitals have only Covid-19 medicine (pain killers, muscle relaxants…) some for 2 days, the best for 2 weeks. Importing from India getting difficult, throat cutting competition on international markets.

      France is thinking of only allowing foreign supplies if a wartime plan B exists for local production within 10 days in time of crisis.

      The silver lining of it all is that we might learn a lot for the next pandemic.

  14. NHerrera says:

    A COMMENT I HOPE IS USEFUL

    Hi, TSH folks. Still here.

    I had to do something beside “sheltering-in-place” with the wife, among which tasks was to see to getting a Home Quarantine Pass which our village was slow in distributing — a pass which when I need to drive within NCR and stopped by law enforcement officers I can show without hassle [I hope].

    To contribute meaningfully — to respond to the question posed in the current TSH blog — I was planning to show a sketch through the mechanism of Imgur I used before, but I have problems with now, I hope temporarily.

    But one of our contributors [Bill In Oz? in this or the previous blog] link saved me. I copied the URL of the youtube item in that link which I display below. It may be technical gibberish to some readers. That notwithstanding, I find it very useful. Please bear with me:

    1. When most data are in, that is, after the fact, the turning point or the peak becomes clear, but the problem with that is that will be history. What the blog asks is to divine the peak or probable peak before it becomes history.

    2. What we need is a chart that displays the turning point, inflection point towards that peak, better than other charts that we have seen. The youtube video shows that the chart which shows this inflection point better than other charts — which I agree with — is one where,
    – the vertical axis or ordinate is in the logarithm of the daily new confirmed case; and
    – the horizontal axis or abscissa is in the logarithm of the cumulative confirmed cases

    3. Of course, the early sign of the inflection point and whether to call it as definitive is still a judgement thing for the analyst. Better, if the analyst has other supporting data other than just that chart. That said, because of the speed of development, a few days (not weeks) of more data can strengthen this turning point call.

    4. We do not see this yet in in the case of the PH. Neither in the US. At this time. The cases of China and South Korea is instructive as shown in the video.

    • Attacking of health care workers (medical staff and hospital personnel alike) is a sad development. And worthy of discussion, Ireneo mentioned “People attacked doctors in early 19th century Berlin cholera epidemics.”

      But let’s focus on doctors (and nurses) deaths. If kasambahay‘s number is accurate, then the shit has truly hit the fan in the Philippines, 12 is a pretty big number already at this point. I believe 61 for Italy, and 1 or two in the US so far.

      The problem if we’re using their deaths as metrics for how bad situations are developing, we’ll need to figure out if those doctors were in fact infected while performing their duties. if they died because they went to a party, or traveled somewhere recently, then the infection

      didn’t happen in the hospital.

      When people count doctor and nurse deaths its assumed that they died performing their duties, if not we shouldn’t get into the habit of announcing their profession, it’ll only muddle the view.

      it’s like saying 12 Filipino engineers (or lawyers) have died of COVID19, irrelevant! with that said, I am happy to see you finally post, NH— was getting worried a bit. 😉 but my point is doctor and nurse deaths should be closely tallied, but only on-duty deaths.

      • kasambahay says:

        begging your pardon po, corporal, make that 13 doctor deaths now, latest to die of coronavirus is famed filipino pediatrician. duterte in his maiden emergency power speech given at 4am mentioned the dead doctors as heroes that died for their country. mali pala ako, I though the doctors died of coronavirus. ops, died of coronavirus for their country, I’m getting confused here. died in active duty and more to come: doctor and nurses retirees are being called to active duty. more cannon fodder, ill equip and out of prac, says me suntory pickled mind.

        pls dont pay attention to moi, I’m a charlatan and a woodworm and have loaded guns pointed at me, but escaped firing squad. I’m of unsound mind and prone to delusions. military thinks I’m village idiot best left alone. dont want to deprive a poor village of their utmost entertainment.

        hi, coronavirus and me are staring face to face, it goes its way and I go mine. and frontline has no place for charlatans like me. and the mighty virus thinks I’m too common and too unworthy to sully its statistics and reputation.

        anyhow, there is move to publish the names and pics of those that died of coronavirus so all their contacts need not play guessing games and would, supposedly, go on quarantine.

        again, pls read me with a pinch of iodized salt. I’m mega delusional, haha.

    • NHerrera says:

      **Technical note addendum**

      I may add that once the turning point is identified in that log (new cases) – log (cumulative cases) chart, one can determine the time when that point is reached by going back to the data and checking what date/ time corresponds to that cumulative confirmed cases.

      • I have to turn all this into a metaphor because my brain kinda hurts when I look at numbers, NH.

        So in California, wild fires are a staple more so during Santa Ana winds (from the desert to the sea). fuel is usually dry vegetation , but structures too.

        COVID19 is the wildfire. Dry vegetation are the people. The winds are the variables followed or not followed, like covering face, social distancing. it’s safe to say the Santa Ana winds in the Philippines are ripe, dry vegetation even more so, because lots of unhealthy Filipinos (i don’t think pork fat fights COVID19).

        One of the best ways to fight wildfire, if aircrafts are down or indisposed, it’s backfire.

        My point with backfire, NH, is that fire is still fire (it’s still COVID19) but you’re allowing it to burn (ie. controlled burn) in the hopes of averting a bigger burn. Again there’s an element of sacrifice here, that most nations are not willing to consider as of yet.

        Which brings us to this poem: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bani_Adam

        But the fires gonna rage, NH. We can check back on the date/time of which ridge its crossed but from a wider angle, the wider terrain will have burnt. Winds may have died down say in S. Korea or Japan. But embers we’ll analogize as time travelers, COVID19 outbreaks in the future, thus the folks that skated by

        this cycle, will most likely get it in the next, and so on.

        So firefighters of the wildfires variety are probably better analysts, IMHO.

        p.s. — your “The cases of China and South Korea is instructive as shown in the video”.

        Consider this number too,

        “Some Wuhan residents estimate that the coronavirus death toll could be 26,000, based on the amount of urns being delivered and distributed across the city. Citizens on Chinese social media have said that seven Wuhan funeral homes will likely distribute 3,500 urns per day on average from March 23 to April 4, which marks Qing Ming, the traditional tomb-sweeping festival. By that estimate, 42,000 urns would be given out in the 12-day period.

        By subtracting the expected deaths of roughly 16,000 in Wuhan, based on China’s annual death rate over two and a half months, they estimate that the urns show that the coronavirus outbreak could have resulted in approximately 26,000 deaths. It is currently unclear, however, how many of the urns have been used.”
        https://www.newsweek.com/wuhan-covid-19-death-toll-may-tens-thousands-data-cremations-shipments-urns-suggest-1494914

        Now compare that to the US flu deaths per year (pyramid graphs from the other blog) let’s say 40,000 to 50,000 deaths yearly. the US doesn’t shut down, we just absorb those deaths.

        Thus, my backfire analogy seems fitting here as solution for COVID19. let her burn!

        • NHerrera says:

          Lance,

          Those are useful information. But allow me:

          – In the case of the Wuhan information, I do not know to what extent the approximate timing of the turning point is affected by these information. In math simulation, there may be some error in the abscissa item, but if this is correlated with the ordinate item, the error washes out in the curvature of the chart. In any case, I was answering the blog’s query as to determining the “glimmer” of the peaking that will aid the health authorities and government and the populace.

          – In the case of the flu deaths versus covid deaths, this is a subject almost beaten to death in the current news and in the literature. We have discussed this too in previous blogs. I have nothing to add. Only to say: if all governments worldwide are more concerned and affected by covid than by the flu, there must be something greatly different in the former.

          Thanks for your concern, about my “absence” early in the blog commentary. Take care.

          • The worry i think is mostly in the fact that COVID19 is new, the virus is new– so assumption is that no ones got immunity.

            But it’s already taken its toll in China and although on the low end say 5,000 and the high right now is say let’s round off to 30,000 , that is still considerably low in comparison even with all the above considered, NH.

            The question that needs to be also considered is what is an acceptable loss here. There’s seeing body bags, and then there’s seeing girls prostitute themselves for toilet paper in the streets, again COVID19 vs. the Economy.

            So although i can appreciate your number crunching (like watching Michael Jordan play basketball), but until someone says what is an acceptable loss base on the numbers crunched, i still think its all for naught, NH.

            Are we seriously considering shutting down the whole world for some virus??? that’s nuts! seems to me like suicide. But then again i am sorta rooting for the virus here (on the condition that it doesn’t kill me of course, Lol!), it’s a cleaner world, a more quieter world.

            Maybe coronavirus thinks we are the virus here. And that i certainly agree with.

          • NHerrera says:

            Thanks for the chart — useful technical in-a-nutshell info on the flu vs covid 19.

            Yes, we humans are the virus — from covid19’s point of view. 🙂

    • Superb presentation. People who can do these things astound me. It’s like I watch my son do programming through canned programming tools and he is making much more sophisticated games than I did on Microsoft Basic at age 35, and in 1/10the the time. Still, I can’t imagine trying to get PH data into logarithmic form, and then trying to explain it to anyone so they would take it as believable. I note that two points in the video are important. The number of cases depends on the thoroughness of testing. And it takes a moving average to smooth the daily jerks. He uses a week, I use five days.

      And, still, the model does not project the day the cliff appears, only that one has fallen off it. I’ll continue to track mine to see what it shows. I have always detested statistics, so leave any other machinations to you, scientists, or Sal if he ever sobers up.

      • NHerrera says:

        Your Junior and other young intelligent, perceptive, quick-minded fellows may indeed save the earth for us.

        The use of the word “cliff” is apt. Please note though that the chart is compressed. In details we may see this turn developing — unfortunately one has to be like the radar screen watcher, and look at it several times during the day, and every day, not weeks. Be very watchful, for you may not know when the hour [cliff] cometh …

        Haha. Your broker Sal must be happily drinking himself thinking that the drinks is an alternative aid against the virus while we wait for that medicine or vaccine. 🙂

        • Yes, that is almost precisely how Sal explained it, only yours is clear, his a slur. haha

        • caliphman says:

          Manong, there is no reason why occasionally you cannot post your chart here as the virus spread there progresses. Many of the apex tracking curves for countries where the contagion is more established so comparisons can be made. One variation to do this is to standardize by plotting starting days after the first 100 cases have been reached. Finally , Philippine health statisticians will eventually if they are not already doing so will be publishing charts the way we are discussing so a link to those is all that is required. Keep up the good work.

    • karlgarcia says:

      It is good to know that it is only chores and duties that prevented you from posting NH.
      Young people are joking of things they learned to do for the first time like washing clothes, etc.

      • NHerrera says:

        Yes. Division of labor between my wife and me. I do the heavy lifting and complicated things like cooking the spaghetti and she cooks the sauce; I do the dish washing and she cooks the food, etc. But I have learned to do some cooking: scrambled eggs, and campbell soup — pouring the contents of the can and adding a can of water in a pan and heating the mix. And my favorite quickie — campbell mushroom soup as sauce to pasta, linguine, my favorite for that. 🙂

  15. caliphman says:

    Manong, that is perhaps a so much better indicator than one based on bed capacity and utilization. In an ideal world what should be tracked is actual infections and not just confirmed, i.e. tested, cases. The difficulty is aside from S. Korea, Singapore, Taiwan and Hongkong where the level of contagion was limited enough and testing capacity was adequate to do conract tracing, everywhere else (save China) the use of confirmed cases as an inflection point indicator distorts and lags the actual apex of the infection due to limited testing capacity. In the Philippines lack of testing capacity is even more extreme compared to here in the US, that a false and too early inflection point will be indicated if confirmed cases are the basis for your suggested logarithmic infection growth plots. Why? As testing capacity is reached and exceeded, there will be a false flattening or even a decline in the curve as the sheer volume and still accelerating growth of the contagion outpaces the rate of growth confirmed cases because of testing limitations and delays.

    • NHerrera says:

      What should be tracked is actual infections and not just confirmed, i.e. tested, cases.

      As testing capacity is reached and exceeded, there will be a false flattening or even a decline in the curve as the sheer volume and still accelerating growth of the contagion outpaces the rate of growth confirmed cases because of testing limitations and delays.

      I agree!

      To the extent that we have these realistic data, we should use these for our ordinate-abscissa or nudge or adjust our model/ chart using these realistic parameters. Or lacking these realistic data we should be careful in concluding from the apparent flattening or peaking of the chart.

  16. NHerrera says:

    TRIVIA: AGAIN, PARETO’S 20-80 PRINCIPLE

    I did a little bit of arithmetic. Today, 20% of US States (10 out of 50) accounts for 77% of the confirmed covid19 cases and 81% of the deaths.

    • They are likely states with large Chinese communities.

      • Bill In Oz says:

        Or states with close connections to China.

        • “large Chinese communities” and “close connections to China” ,

          with those two (which I agree with) for all intents and purposes the expansion should’ve been here in California, not NY. I know news of COVID19 here first broke out in the Seattle area, but that seems to have quieted or slowed.

          The explanation for the NY outbreak is that COVID19 went around the opposite way via Europe into the East Coast.

          it’s not like we’re practicing social isolation here more, on the contrary. the only difference i can see is the East Coast especially NYC has a really good public transport (most they say were infected in subways), whereas here in California people like to drive, thus not breathe each others air.

          We’ve been bracing (“bracing”) for 2 weeks now, and still the hospitals here are empty all things considered. The USNS Mercy is now taking in patients in San Pedro, freeing up a lot of spaces, the hospitals are eerily quiet now just waiting for this blitzkrieg coming.

          But right now crickets, and we’re the state that has both of those, “large Chinese communities”, and “close connections to China”. What gives?

          I guess you could also add Trump’s China travel ban early on to possible explanations. https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/proclamation-suspension-entry-immigrants-nonimmigrants-persons-pose-risk-transmitting-2019-novel-coronavirus/

      • NHerrera says:

        The 10 States are New York, New Jersey, California, Michigan, Florida, Massachusetts, Illinois, Washington, Louisiana, and Georgia.

  17. Bill in Oz says:

    Another reason to wear masks. Viral particles can travel up to 27 feet when coughed out by s person, Disturbing news from the Thailand Medical News website discussing new USA research : https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-news-covid-19-prevention-new-study-proves-that-social-distancing-of-1-to-3-meters-is-nothing-but-fake-news-and-misinformation

  18. karlgarcia says:

    China just started to include asymptomatic cases in their report.
    They could not hide it for so long.

    https://m.economictimes.com/news/international/world-news/china-starts-to-report-asymptomatic-coronavirus-cases/articleshow/74925379.cms

    • karlgarcia says:

      Citing classified data, the South China Morning Post said China had found more than 43,000 cases of asymptomatic infection through contact tracing.


      The officials still say there is nothing to worry.
      They just cost a mess in how to manage all of this.
      You can not manage what you can not measure

  19. caliphman says:

    https://brokeassstuart.com/2020/03/30/bay-area-curve-stays-flattened-ucsf-er-stays-quiet/

    Here in the SF bay area, there are indications the shelter-n place are reducing the infection rate. Philippines, pay heed!

  20. Bill In Oz says:

    Good news from Australia !!
    “Ivermectin , an anti-parasitic drug available throughout the world has been found to kill COVID-19 in the lab within 48 hours.

    A Monash University-led study has shown a single dose of the drug Ivermectin could stop the SARS-CoV-2 virus growing in cell culture.

    “We found that even a single dose could essentially remove all viral RNA (effectively removed all genetic material of the virus) by 48 hours and that even at 24 hours there was a really significant reduction in it,” Monash Biomedicine Discovery Institute’s Dr Kylie Wagstaff said on Friday.

    While it’s not known how Ivermectin works on the virus, the drug likely stops the virus dampening the host cells’ ability to clear it.

    The next step is for scientists to determine the correct human dosage, to make sure the level used in vitro is safe for humans.”

    Ivermectin is a common farm drench used widely in Australia to kill intestinal parasites ( worms ) in sheep, cattle & horses. It is available here at all farm supplies stores. Farmers do not even need a prescription !

    I suggest that Philippines health officials investigate this research and try to source some Ivermectin for trial treating COVD 19 patients.

  21. Bill In Oz says:

    Ohhh And the dopey bloody WHO has just decided that we should wear face masks !
    NEWS ! The WHO says “Wear Face Masks ” Maybe they will sack Tedros next for incompetence !

    https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3078437/mask-or-not-mask-who-makes-u-turn-while-us

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