Why China is a Real Threat

Chinese mob attacks Japanese car

At the end of 2012, JoeAm identified four institutions that are interested in undermining the development of a modern Philippines. Here is a status report:

  • The Anti Blog Sites are best ignored as they dissolve in the acids of their bitter view of the Philippines and Filipinos. The positive developments in the Philippines are real. The Antis have been wrong for three years and still can’t summon up the candor to acknowledge that fact. That, my friends, is called denial.
  • China is pursuing its belligerant approach to other nations in Asia. Today’s article addresses this.
  • The Catholic Church is rather like the Republic Party in the US, just off a bitter political loss and trying to reconcile the defeat with their belief that they are the Lords of All Wisdom. JoeAm has written several articles on this topic and is prepared to resume doing his attack writings if the Church again raises its political head to try to drag the Philippine back into the dark ages. For now, he will let the Church partake of introspection in hopes that the CBCP leaders will see that their political engagements are as beneficial as flagellation. 
  • The Chronically Corrupt are on the run thanks to the Aquino Administration’s attack dogs, the Ombudsman and Justice. JoeAm will comment from time to time.


Today’s subject: China.

China is run by committee and, like any large state, has many challenges and internal disagreements on how to move forward. Very clearly, China wants to grow wealthier and provide for her citizens. This makes her a  rising gorilla of consumption and she is feeding her beast lavishly. Acquiring patented secrets through theft, gaining control of most of the earth’s rare-earth metals (essential for electronics), expanding her reach in Latin America and Australia and anywhere she can gain entry.  Scraping rocks from the Philippine mountains for a cheap 2% excise payment.

Chinese rally in protest of Japan’s claim to “Chinese” islands

From the Chinese point of view, this is good progress. Theft of secrets can be rationalized as essential to make up for historical discrimination and punishments. Capturing the market on rare earth metals is good competitive execution. Going after oil and minerals around the globe is essential to feed and raise the living standards of the millions of Chinese moving from poverty to middle class.

Americans or Europeans might not like this rising giant taking over all the choice markets, but they’ve each had their turn in the sunshine. It’s a free world, after all.
The essential question is, does China have the depth and breath of tolerance and respect for others to pursue her aims in a way that avoids violent confrontation?

The two photographs above illustrate the depth of hostility that China is able to work up through State controlled media. China is an emotional nation, as Japan was an emotional nation leading up to World War II. Japan has been punished economically by China this past year for waging dispute over islands. Many Japanese businesses withdrew from Japan, others suffered material damages, physical or financial though boycotts.

The Philippine engagement is mild by comparison, but that does not mean it will stay that way.

This is a bit of a dance, but it is transpiring on the edge of a cliff. One best move carefully.

The great mystery for outsiders is understanding what the REAL policy of China is. When a military officer of substantial rank cites an opinion, is he speaking for the State of China?
When American military officers speak publicly, they are representing the United States, officially. So they speak with care, or not at all.
So what do we hear if we listen to Chinese military men? Here is an excerpt from a fascinating Reuters article, just published, calledSpecial Report: China’s military hawks take the offensive“.
The Air Force Colonel, Dai Xu, is renowned for his regular calls to arms. With China in dispute for much of last year with Japan in the East China Sea and Vietnam and the Philippines in the South China Sea, Dai argued a short, decisive war, like China’s 1962 border clash with India, would deliver long-term peace. He also said Washington would not risk war with China over these territorial spats.
“Since we have decided that the U.S. is bluffing in the East China Sea, we should take this opportunity to respond to these empty provocations with something real,” he wrote in an August 28 commentary published in the Chinese-language edition of the Global Times, a nationalistic tabloid published by the Communist Party organ, the People’s Daily.
“This includes Vietnam, the Philippines and Japan, who are the three running dogs of the United States in Asia,” added Dai, a researcher at Beijing University’s China Centre for Strategic Studies. “We only need to kill one, and it will immediately bring the others to heel.”
Source: Reuters
And what do we THINK when we hear these statements.
“Running dogs?”
It’s physical. Japanese Coast Guard corrals protesters.

“We only need to kill one?”

There is an arrogance, emotionalism and Chinese centrism to these statements that is frightening. One would be remiss to believe this is NOT the official attitude of the Chinese central committee.

One might conceivably argue that this man is just a colonel and does not speak for the State. He speaks for himself. Then one would have to conclude that the Chinese military has poor discipline, and there is nothing to prevent a hothead anywhere from pulling a trigger or pushing a button.

“Oh, it is just bluster. The Chinese are good at the subtleties of international gamesmanship.”

So then we can’t trust China at all, eh?

The most prudent course is to expect that China WILL use military force to take command of islands within Philippine territorial waters. Just as her Navy now resides on Scarborough Shoals with no intention of leaving. That’s 124 nautical miles from Luzon. Pag-asa Island in the middle of the Spratleys, with a vibrant Filipino community, well outside the 200 nautical mile economic zone from Palawan, is perhaps the most dangerous place of contention. It is not like the bare rock at Scarborough.
It would be prudent to draw up alternative ways of reacting to further Chinese aggression.

Sooner rather than later.

When the day arises that China asserts claim, militarily, to occupied Philippine islands, Mr. Aquino must select the best alternative.

It should be well thought out ahead of time. That is my main point here.

You will notice that I did not say “if” the day arises.
Public statements following any incident should be quick. Clear. Firm. Confident. They should not be doubtful or timid or reflective of surprise.

The Philippines would be negligent if it were surprised by any step China might take.

Comments
43 Responses to “Why China is a Real Threat”
  1. Edgar Lores says:

    1. Apart from Latin America and Australia, China has also expanded its reach into darkest Africa.2. Like the Filipino’s uncertain image of its future, China’s emerging image of itself seems to be that of a wannabe superpower.3. When will nations and politicians learn three things?3.1 Newton’s Third Law: For every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction. For every aggressive move that China makes, there will be an equal and opposite countermove. Ultimately, there is no victor, only victims.3.2 Principle of Interdependence: All things – nations, people, flowers and butterflies – are interconnected and interdependent upon each other. It will cause much less in any terms one would care to define – political, economic, world peace or whatever – for China to cooperate with its neighbours and develop mutually beneficial agreements for joint exploitation of resources in disputed areas. As Thich Nhat Hanh explains, we not only exist, we inter-are.3.3 The straight way is sometimes the shortest, the simplest and the best.

  2. Yes. This notion of nationalism has one flaw. The other nations have people, too. They are not "dogs". Being Chinese does not make the Chinese inherently right.

  3. Attila says:

    If the US Navy would have not bean kicked out then this would have never happened. Filipinos should except responsibility for creating this situation. They wanted to be macho and blame the US as a scapegoat for all their problems. Estrada and most of the country that time wanted the US to be out. They got their wish and now got the Chinese. They are incredibly naive and blinded people for not foreseeing this to come. Overall Chinese and Filipino are compatible as oppose to White America. They will just silently give in and come under China. Two system one country. Just like Hong kong and Taiwan. Philippines is next.

  4. That's an interesting point, Attila, that China would not be so bold if the US still had bases here. I'm going to promote that thought, thanks. Given that Estrada is on my list of ancient, rigid egos who are not really working for the betterment of the Philippines. The matter was actually quite contentious at the time, so I'm not sure it is true that most wanted the US out. About half and half I think.I agree with the notion that Philippine culture is more similar to Chinese than American, but I think the Philippines is too far down the Western path, and the economy is doing too well, to do anything but emerge as a responsible independent nation. Eclectic, for sure.

  5. Attila says:

    Rigid egos? That is an understatement. I call it plain stupid. If Subic with Clark would have been there than China wouldn't dare to intrude. Simple is that. When the US moved out a power vacuum was created and the Chinese just took advantage of it. The Filipinos were in lala land celebrating their pride.How many Filipinos would have the guts to acknowledge that. Hmm…maybe ZERO? I guess they don't even mind it after all. It is still better without the Americans, that is what Filipino pride dictates. Filipinos understand that the China is not like the USA they can not bully it. They are powerless with the Chinese so they slowly change tactic to save face. I'm entertained by the stupidity of it.

  6. Cha says:

    That China would not be so bold if the US still had bases here ..Doesn't the US have military bases also in Japan? So what then is the deal with the Chinese feuding with Japan now over the Senkaku Islands?

  7. Anonymous says:

    China is taking care of itself: it has its own agenda, its own plans for its future and its billion-plus population. It might be a 50-year or a 100-year economic development plan; it might be a $100 billion-a-year-arms-modernization-plan, it might be any other plan formulated by its communist governing body.Whatever the Chinese plan might be, we can only hope that another country have had the foresight to have initiated a counter-plan to offset the current, and future, implementation of such a Chinese plan. The Philippines, of course, do not have such a counter-plan – it has so far not emerged from the corruption/bribery stage of its development.Chinese sovereignty now includes three (3) million square kilometers of ocean and seas as codified in the 1992 Maritime Law adopted by the National People’s Congress. This includes, among others, the East China Sea and the South China Sea. Chinese strategic maritime frontiers are also described as extending far into the Pacific Ocean. As I have posted in another blog site, under the so-called three island chains strategy, China established blue-water presence in 2010 in the the first island chain, which runs from Japan to Taiwan, and the Philippines. The goal for 2025 will be to establish the second island chain from Sakhalin to the west pacific islands; in 2050, the third island chain from the Aleutian islands to Antarctica will be established.So, for the Philippines, it looks like it’s over, bar the shouting. China has already a well-entrenched advance column in the form of CPP NPA and others so vehemently opposed to the US bases then and are now agitating for the abrogation of the VFA. For the majority of Filipinos, learning to speak Mandarin (or some other Chinese dialect) is the only option left.joedelacruise

  8. J says:

    I remember being one of the first to call that China would turn assertive ( http://thenutbox.wordpress.com/2011/04/29/chinas-invasion-tag-and-the-need-for-back-up-on-the-spratlys/ ), even though many on Twitter ganged up on me and said China is more concerned with economics so won't be a trouble-maker. But the thing is, there's no one actor within China that determines how that country moves forward. It's structures are so loose and there are just too many actors there, that China's action is often a result of the interaction/power dynamics among those actors.For instance, we all know that the PLA had been generally tamed after Tianamen and the CPP was able to control policy, but after Jiang's attempt to destabilize Hu's regime, Hu had to depend on the PLA to keep his post. This has in turn empowered the PLA, leading to its ability to be more vocal within policy circles. This, I think, is the cause of China's dumping of its "peaceful rise" doctrine in favor of a more assertive foreign policy in the disputed islands and seas.Also, corruption scandals have made the CPP vulnerable; hence its inability to assert its primacy and giving the PLA more leverage. You will notice that the disastrous anti-Japan protests, which were arguably state-sanctioned, happened after the Bo scandal.Taking all these into consideration, dealing with China should always be calibrated, taking into consideration the fact that it is NOT a monolithic actor. This is a tough thing to crack, but such is statescraft.PS: Anti-blog site as too insignificant to be considered a threat to the PH, IMO.

  9. Gadzooks. Good counter-point. Maybe that is why Secretary Clinton was a little more explicit on Japan than the Philippines, saying clearly that Japan has administrative responsibility for the islands.

  10. Say Hey, Joe. Nice name and interesting post. I think the counterbalance is the US "pivot". The flash point is perhaps Pag-asa Island, way off in the middle of China's self-determined international territory covering the Spratleys and populated by a sizable Filipino population. Another flash point will be when Chinese Oil rigs start to go up within 200 nautical miles of the Philippines.There are many ways to define "defense", the key word for the US/Philippine treaty. The US considers drones a defensive act. Philippine military maneuvers to eject an occupying state could also be termed defensive. It is fascinating to think of the NPA as a communist front. We are back to the Huk rebellion again.

  11. Yes, I may have picked up on the fractionalized leadership from reading your blog. My brain is a relentless fog some days. This is all a little scary, frankly, the abrasive aggression and rationalizations coming from China. "Running Dogs". There is a racist undercurrent to the characterization of anyone who opposes China's will as dogs. I keep the Antis on my list for personal enjoyment, to bludgeon and make jokes of. They are for sure no threat.

  12. Philippine government cannot assert itself to spearhead China expansionist ambition in behalf of the world and other 4 claimants to Spraleys. The PhilGov has to starve its children to buy military arsenals which is obviously cannot match Chinese and their citizens' intelligence and patriotism. Flexing its puny muscles definitely is counterproductive. It can make noise to send signals will go to naught as intelligenct countries had known long time ago that these are just specks of island whose perceived natural resources cannot be harnessed for environmental and ecological issues.Philippines cannot even do simple exploratory oil drilling within their territory to "protect" the natural habitat of bottled-nose dolphin over hungry Filipino children. These islands have no economic value to the Filipnos except for the very very few tisoys and tisays and snotty-englischtzes-snobs that can swim with the aquatics. This is investments of no return.What keeps me scratching my head is why only poor unpatriotic Philippines make so much noise of their so-called "sovereginty" when their inhabitants would rather live elsewhere to voluntarily apply for colonization.It is obvious China is clear and present danger, that is if left-behind Filipinos still think that they are biblical descendants of David against Goliath.

  13. Has benign0 Aquino made polls if this is what Filipinos wanted? Has SWS? Asking Filipinos that the government is pawning their futures for these useless specks of island in the name of sovereignty when they allowed Americans and Hong-Kong to over-ride simple investigation of killing and massacre in the PHilippines? It is even a known fact that Chinese businessmen here do not have papers at all. They are not even citizen of the Philippines. Case in point the wife of my best friend and one of the sponsor of my wedding. Her family make shoes. Her father cannot speak tangalog. Yet, despite the widely debated 60 for Filipnos/40 for others her father can manufacture shoes.There are plenty of laws in the PHilippines with all factutom probandum pablum preccion correctional but they are most widely ignored. If ever it is implemented it depends on the weather and phase of the moon.

  14. Americans knows very well they cannot be dragged into war because of Filipinos' perceived miitary strategic and economic importance. That if war breaks out, which is very very unlikely, between China and PHilippines, it is the fault of benign0 Aquino for throwing peebles at China."I am always at a loss at how much to believe of my own stories" – Washington Irving the greatest fabulist, that made me second, that penned "So help me God" in the mouth of George Washington and past and future presidents.

  15. Those Filipios that kicked out the Americans and lived in the U.S. should be brought back home and lead an attack against Chinese."Brilliant" PHilippine Journlaists that promoted the ousting of Americans should lead them.They need not be afraid. They have Hamilton-class Coat Guard Cutters and 6 fireflies against China.

  16. JOe Cruise, have you check the classified ads lately? Companies are wanting employees that speaks preferrably Mandarin and Cantonese to work for Chinese Citizen businessmen that were allowed by benign0 Aquino to operate without oversight to pollute Pasig River.If they cannot check every chinky eyed businessmen for their citizenship, they might as well give up their constitution.

  17. Hey, yo, Mr. J. The Philippine Government has not used "Maoist" since I was born. Now benign0 Aquino is resurrecting it. Or, could it be "brilliant" PHilippine Media's idea? It is best benign0 and his crew ignore the "Maoists" because their leader has turned democratic already.The obvious threat in the PHilippines is not the anti-anything-bloggers, Maoist CPP-NDF. The clear and present danger are clueless Philippine Media, Abu Sayaf and Muslim separationists.

  18. I am afraid to lose this video. I have to post this somewhere if I do not I will lose it. I cannot wait for Angry Maude's blog tomorrow to post this. This video is AWESOME documentary. Please forgive me for liking this video.This is anti-tourism, regardless, I am just lovin' it.http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e_Ht_19N8Uw

  19. brianitus says:

    I watched the news on ABS-CBN earlier. The Shanghai Morning Post calls the Philippines "The Most Romantic Destination." Normally, I'd say "Great! Come on over!" However, knowing how the Chinese military would like to bomb us back to the Stone Age if given the opportunity just to clear up some border issues, I kinda wonder on the kind of tourists we're really getting from that country.

  20. Attila says:

    Chinese can blend in smoothly. The reason is because most Filipinios are not as westernized as many believes. Maybe Renato is right when he refers to them: "except for the very very few tisoys and tisays and snotty-englischtzes-snobs" When I meet with the carga tapas workers or the fisherman and the peasants in my wife's province, I feel I'm meeting people from an other culture and not another version of western culture.

  21. Anonymous says:

    Joe, it is good that you are thinking of a “counterbalance”. And there should be, I hope, just to assuage everybody’s fear that China, who is practically barking at the front door, will shortly run over the Philippines, flashpoint or no flashpoint. China I expect will “push”, and continue pushing, until it meets the counterbalance that I hope will be there at the proper time. China’s “offshore” includes the Yellow Sea, East China Sea, South China Sea, the Spratly Islands, the sea area around and inside Taiwan and the Ryukyu Islands, and the sea area in the northern Pacific Ocean; and “offshore defense” means not only defense of the aforementioned areas but it also means any area as far as the PLA Navy’s capabilities will allow it to operate. We are or the Philippines is IN China’s “offshore”; any counter action we might initiate will be met with the might of China in defense of its “offshore” or sovereignty.Learn Mandarin, everybody, and learn quick!joedelacruise

  22. Attila, Westerners are more accepting of chinkies than brownies. I cannot quiet put my finger on it. Could it be because they have drop-dead gorgeous looks? Superior genes perhaps? This I can tell you, Hollywood denizens would rather import chinkies and russkies than brownies.

  23. Aha! briantus, this is invasion strategy of the Chinese. First, they inundate us with chinkies. They stay. They put up businesses. Then welcome their chinkie brothers when it is time. Applying for business permit here do not even require a proof of citizenship, so these chinkies can get 100% instead of 60/40% foreign limits.Rest assured briantus chinkies do not want the Philippines as a whole. They just want Spratleys and Scarborough for commercial purposes and natural resources WHICH FILIPINOS WOULDN'T EVEN TOUCH to protect the jindgenous species to entertain the tisoys and tisays scubadiving among the dolphins. Now that is really way expensive and cost plenty of dead children so the tisoys and tisays can have fun. Definitely Americans would rather want the Chinese develop the Spratleys for oil instead of the troublesome Mid-East oil. Because Chinese do not care about the environment. Just this morning Ghuangzou is in a shroud of dark smog that their government ordered smokestacks to shutdown and have their citizens wear masks.Americans have outsourced their polluting industries to China than dam Grand Canyon river for power.

  24. Without Filipinos knowing, Americans may be on the side of the Chinese. Filipios are fickle people. They do not know what they want and what to do.They fought against the Americans. They kicked out Americans and yet they love to go to America. And now, they want AMericans the very Americans that they kicked out to go to war with them. Once Chinese will have backed down, PHilipppnes will fight against the America thrice again.FILIPINOS LOVE TO FIGHT. They want someone to fight for them.

  25. SIDEBAR: Obama's InaugurationDid Obama's illigal immigrant aunt at the inauguration? Just wondering.

  26. Attila says:

    In general white Americans, Europeans including Hungarians like their own kind. It is their preference. Despite the fact that some whites marry those brownies I don't see a change in their taste. The chinkies are popular because they look more like whites. A white Chinese or Korean still look exotic and interesting to most whites. A Malay look would be too different than what they are used to. They symply can not identify with it and they don't know what to do with it. I think it is not racism just preference. I personally don't see that drop-dead gorgeous look with superior genes you talking about. My beautiful wife is very dark with some Aeta blood in her.

  27. Attila says:

    I think you are right that the US is on the side of China already. Why would the US care about the Philippines any more? They are walking on eggshells when they deal with the Filipinos even today. The Philippines had a chance to earn the trust of the USA but they just burned their bridges. It would be just a thankless war for the USA to fight for. Not worth it period.

  28. Attila, if I have not gone to America I would not have loved my own kind and most notably my brown skin and punk'd nose. America taught me to love my skin color. America taught me tolerance towards non-English, struggling in English minorities. Where I work, Hispanics and non-Filipino Asians struggle unabashedly with English. Only Filipinos are conscious and highly-critical of English usage it even has become a measure of intellect. These Filipinos like left-behind Filipinos laugh at Chinese and Indian spoken English. Attila, travel showed me tolerance. Filipinos are still in their own myopic world. Some Filipinos have traveled abroad but not really interacting with the locals and knowing their culture. I LOVE MY BROWN SKIN. I LOVE MY PUNK'D NOSE. I LOE MY THICK LIPS. I do not arrogate and intimidate my English on anyone. I LOVE FILIPINOS. I LOVE MY HERITAGE. Bloggers just do not understand me. I could they understand me? I cannot even understand myself. There are times I am lucid and sober. There are times I am totally out in space. But most of all I LIKE MAKING THINGS UP in other blogs so I can root out those who are really thinking and those who are not and this I found, Attila, there are just so many out there that cannot tell that I am just making stories and they are graudates from Ateneo, la Salle and U.P.

  29. Chinese are ruffled by Hillary Clinton comment on disputed Japanese islandshttp://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=169816174Hilary Clinton definitely did not mention Spratleys. Are we getting a bum deal? Or we are just irrelevant to the U.S.

  30. Cha says:

    Chinkies? Brownies?More than a decade living in Australia and haven't heard those used to refer to the Chinese and Filipinos. And people say Australians are racist.

  31. If you say those words in underdeveloping Philippines it is cool. If said it in 1stworld country it sure is racist. I've been called names by Ateneans, la Sallites and UPinians and they theought they are fighting against racism …

  32. Attila says:

    Cha:It reminds me of the American blacks who allow themselves to use the N word. You can hear black comedians often using it from Chris Rock to Eddie Murphy and many other Def Comedy Jam performers. Whites are not allowed to use those words or any other derogatory words. This kind of double standard is accepted and understood. When I hear a Filipino using similar words describing his race I know what he really means and I do not take it at face value. If it helps to get a point through in a humorous way I also smile at it without any malice.

  33. What a great quote. I read Washington Irving in high school. Time to dig him out again.

  34. hawr hawr. The point about consistency of values is important. (note to self; apply to self)

  35. Attila says:

    You are cool with me. No need to explain I can understand your humor. I like your style of expressing your thoughts. Just keep up the good work please. I get the feeling that Joe agrees with me on this one.

  36. Cha says:

    To be seen as cool or to aspire to be a decent human being. It's all a matter of choice.You know I get what you are trying to put out there most of the time, Mariano. I get that most of what you say about yourself, your history is really just made up and that you do ll that to make a point. I, too see the same hypocrisy that you see and are fighting against. I may not agree with your methods all the time but I do respect your right to express yourself in the way you want to. But there are boundaries that need not be crossed or else we lose a sense of ourselves and what we are all here trying to achieve. We end up opening the doors for others to give vent to their own hatred and prejudices. And we all lose a part of our humanity.We are all better than this.

  37. @joedelacruise, I have learned the essential Chinese phrases already. I can't spell them, but they sound like:"Knee how ma?" "Whoa eye knee!"

  38. Attila says:

    "Hispanics and non-Filipino Asians struggle unabashedly with English."Without the USA colonial past the Philippines would not have an English speaking population today. There would not be OFW who can work competitively as professionals or even maids around the world. Filipinos would speak Spanish only but still would not even be on the same level as Guatemalans, Salvadorians or Mexicans for the simple reason that they would not be able to come here and cross the border illegally. You are too far away to smuggle through here. Filipinos would be like Indonesian maids. The lowest earners and the least respected. I keep telling you guys that without the Americans you would be much much worst. Look at the East Timorians? They speak only Portuguese and what use they have that language? Not much. No other Asian nation can compete with Filipinos no matter how hard working they are.

  39. Attila says:

    Cha:I think your guards are way too high up. I never met an American or Hungarian who hate Filipinos. On the other hand I did meet Filipinos who are racist towards each other. My "negra" wife told me some juicy stories and help me to see your own "backyard" racism.

  40. brianitus says:

    Chinkee is actor Joey de Leon's daughter, just sayin'. hehehe.Anyway, invasion strategy? Reminds me of my old history books that told of how the Japanese came in just before World War 2. They flocked in as businessmen.Maybe it is inevitable, China will take over the Philippines. I think Nostradamus predicted that. Then again, the man got a number of things wrong, right?

  41. Cha says:

    There are racists everywhere. And we can all sit back and watch and then tell juicy stories to others of what we have seen and heard.Or we can stand up, put our foot down and say No, that's not right.It's all a matter of choice.

  42. HA! HA! HA! I heard that Knee how ma !!! I just do not know what that means …."Po how" I know. It is bad word. It means, "NOT GOOT" seriously !!!!

  43. Knee how ma? = How are you? I think the accent is on the "ma".Whoa eye knee! = I love you! The accent is a strange upward and downward inflection of the "eye". I struggle with it.These are the essentials for any bar in any land.

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