The odds are that Mar Roxas will be the next president

sal

My bookie Sal

Whenever I do forecasts, I check with my bookie Sal, currently of Manila by way of Las Vegas and Macau. He’s a pro at probabilities. He claims he is Sicilian and chances are he is right. The scars are real.

It is not commonly known, but Vegas is the place where more people pray than anywhere on earth except Rome and Manila. Every time gamblers put down their chips they offer up a few words of the faith. Sal tipped me on that.

I sent Sal the latest Pulse Asia survey showing how possible candidates for president of the Philippines stack up. Here’s the main table of survey results:

pulse asia dec 14

The survey shows Jejomar Binay as the lead candidate but Sal was not at all impressed.

“Binay is done!” Sal said. “His goose is cooked.”

“How do you figure?” I asked, as I’ve never seen him this confident except when running out the odds on Pacquiao beating some American chump with a glass jaw and no punching power.

“Most of those people will not be on the ballot, so you have to allocate their numbers elsewhere. I figure the only serious candidates are Binay, Poe, Santiago and Roxas. Others may enter the race for ego but the reality will eventually set in that they are just wasting money, and they will pull out.”

“Makes sense, Sal. So those four represent . . . um, 26 + 18 + 12 + 6 . . . or 62% of the votes. So 38% need to be re-allocated.”

“You learn fast, JoeAm.” He smirked for some reason..

“Math major, Sal. I do arithmetic good.” I smirked back. “Would you just divvy them up equally?”

“Oh, no, no, no! Binay is a pariah except among those he’s bought off. He won’t get much at all from the other candidates. He’ll have a hard time holding on to his existing numbers. So divvy the fluff votes among the other three and give a couple of leftovers to Binay.”

“Great, well we have nice even numbers to work with here. Give Binay 2% more and  raise him to 28%. Of the remaining 36, give 12 to Poe, Santiago and Roxas. So we now have Poe at 30, Santiago at 24 and Roxas at 18.”

“You do that on your slide rule?” Sal asked, still smirking.

“Roxas is still losing.”

“Ah, but this is where the shirt hits the fan because there are two immovable objects here.

One, Poe will not enter the race. She knows she is not ready for that brutality. I mean, people will be looking into her love life and demanding her DNA to prove she is not a Marcos love-child or the Wicked Witch of the East in disguise. No money. No backing. Isolated in her independence. She’s perfect for VP.

Two, Santiago will hit a wall. Face it, Filipinos like to laugh at her sex jokes, but they don’t want a lascivious, ranting, unhealthy, elitist woman who quotes Latin as President. She is just a fad. Look at her numbers. No draw among the poor because common people see her as a rather well-fed, arrogant rich lady. I peg her hitting the wall at 25%. She’ll never go any higher than that.”

“You can be so blunt, Sal. But . . . oh, that means Poe’s 30 points go to . . . . AHHHHHHHH!! . . . .  I see! I see! Santiago gets 1 and Roxas gets 29, raising him to . . . um, 18 plus 29 is . . . 47%!”

“Yep.”

“And Binay is stuck at 28 because he is a pariah!”

“You got it, JoeAm. And if Santiago dropped out, Roxas would get elected in a laugher.”

“Damn straight!”

I sat there poring over the numbers again. I knew it would not happen exactly as he laid out, but for sure all those people will not make it on the ballot. The 29 to 1 dividing of Poe’s “votes” is a little extreme. But his point about Binay being maxed out makes sense. And the likelihood that Poe won’t run. And a practical limit to Santiago’s upside. So there is a certain logic to the outcome. A very real mathematical chance.

“Sal, let me bounce some of the names off you for your expert read-out.”

“Fire away, Bucko!”

J: “Estrada.”

S: “Old geezer. A blast from the past. Filipinos have so left those days.”

J: “Escudero.”

S: “Political opportunist. No one trusts him.”

J: “Cayetano.”

S: “Same as Escudero. Trillanes, too. No uplift.”

J: “Marcos.”

S: “Don’t make me laugh. How much did his papa steal?”

J: “Roxas.”

S: “A good guy, actually. And he has learned a lot the hard way. Filipinos are not compassionate. They hammer you into shape. He’s about to be re-discovered.”

J: “Binay.”

S: “I project that his numbers will continue to slide. Call it padding for my odds calculation. He’s so done. He’d have quit a long time ago except he has no shame.”

It seems to me that Sal smirks a lot. And makes a lot of sense, too. All that is missing is the timeline.

“So, Sal, let me cast a scenario to see if it jibes with your thinking.”

“Fire away, JoeAm.” He frowned an earnest frown.

“Binay continues to fade with votes floating to others.  LP picks Roxas and starts making noise; his numbers pick up. Others like Cayetano announce they won’t run, or maybe they stick around but go nowhere. It’s futile; they drop out. Poe announces she won’t run. Roxas and Santiago are neck and neck and passing Binay. But Santiago can’t keep the pace. She is not healthy enough to campaign actively, and too disorganized. She hits her 25% wall. Roxas surges. Mayor Romualdez in Tacloban develops a major case of apoplexy . . .  That about right?”

“Yes, pretty close, and a nice finish, too.” He smiled.

I smiled back.

“Let’s have a drink, Sal. To the Philippines! The land of happy fools . . . rising!”

He winked.

“To the Philippines!”

Comments
123 Responses to “The odds are that Mar Roxas will be the next president”
  1. edgar lores says:

    *******
    Good one!

    Conrado de Quiros claimed to be the kingmaker in the last presidential elections. You may very well claim the title for 2016.

    That’s Joe “Nate Silver” America.

    ***

    P.S. Your bookie Sal looks to me like Frank.
    *****

  2. David Murphy says:

    Enjoyable article on who is likely to win the next presidential election. Now, if you had your choice, who would you want to win?

    • Joe America says:

      Ah, David, I waffle mightily. Today, from all I know, I would pick Mar Roxas because I think the DILG job has placed him in the difficult kinds of situations that a President must deal with. Lots of pressure, lots of criticisms that he must listen to but not necessarily buy into, or get emotional about. I think he is respected by those in government. He follows the straight path and is dedicated to doing work over politicking. I don’t know how tough he is with strong subordinates who are not performing. Can he set them on the right track or not? That is my big question mark.

      I’ve grown wary of Grace Poe. I see aspects of “trapo” in her that are troublesome. She spoke well today about the good work done by President Aquino and the need to continue the straight path. But she is quiet about Binay and plunderers in the Senate while being harsh on Purisima (she got angry because he did not show up at her hearing the first time). I don’t know if she commands respect from those within Executive or not.

      I’d really like the tandem of Roxas and Poe, with Poe as VP. It would knock the socks off of Binay and any other candidate.

      What’s your take?

      • atong says:

        I’m still on the fence…
        For one, I’d like to see & scrutinize their political platform first.

      • vernon says:

        Hey Joe:

        If it boils down to conscious, honest preference, Roxas may have a more than just a good chance. It all depends on how Poe manages her ambivalence and how the Roxas machinery conducts its campaign. The chance for Roxas to establish his momentum is there.

        A few more Blue Ribbon Sub-Committee hearings re: Binay, et al and his so-called free fall won’t just be a free fall. He’d be gone. I suggest committee members keep a tight watch on the money. You know what I mean.

        Nice take. Really nice. I greatly admire your persistence.

        More power.

        vernon

        • Joe America says:

          You are right on target, I think, vernon. I’m starting to get comfortable with the notion that Binay is on the edge of being irrelevant to the 2016 decision-making. Glad you appreciated the article.

      • Jojo says:

        Nice..But i would prefer a Roxas – Duterte tandem so that Mar would be able to focus more on the economic aspects while Duterte would be able to improve the peace and order, and somehow we can expect/project another 6yrs of stability after Roxas.

        • Joe America says:

          Very good, Jojo. Duterte in charge of DILG would be fascinating. Truly, it would. Roxas should dial him up and ask about that. Duterte as VP and Sec. DILG.

          • Klanne says:

            Hi Joe. But the problem is, de Lima will run as Senator under the admin ticket. Will Duterte and de Lima reconcile?

            • Joe America says:

              I don’t think so. It is deliciously complex, as Roxas and Duterte are friends, De Lima and Roxas are work colleagues, and the decision on de Lima may be outside Roxas’ hands. I don’t foresee reconciliation because De Lima is pretty intense and non-political in pursuing justice. I think it comes from her days as head of the Human Rights Commission. Extra judicial killings are a black mark on the Philippines, in the eyes of Human Rights organizations, and it is essential that the nation crack down.

  3. My vote for ROXAS will not be wasted. He willl win in 2016…

  4. manuel buencamino says:

    Roxas is definitely preferable to Binay or Santiago or Poe so I like your scenario. But I will work hard to get Leni Robredo into the mix, that is until the president names his preferred successor. Once he names his pick I will fall in line but until then it’s open season for all to push for their candidate. Having made my preference clear, allow me some observations.

    It seems your bookie is working on a default scenario, he is counting on Poe to back out for Mar to win. That shows your bookie does have too much in faith in his horse winning the race on his own merits because others have to withdraw or stumble for him to become a frontrunner. Second, the re-allocation scenario. Binay lost votes and so did Mar. The gainers were Poe and Santiago. I don’t know what that means for Mar. But what if Poe runs, and she is being pushed hard by two of the most persuasive political opportunists around namely Chiz Escudero and Serge Osmeña, what happens to your bookie’s scenario?

    The sad thing is, on a personal basis, Binay connects better to people – rich to poor- than Mar does. Maybe it’s a matter of identifying more with Binay than with Mar, I don’t know. It’s just something I’ve observed. Look at it this way, if Binay’s corruption did not come to light, Mar wouldn’t have a chance against him, even with the president’s endorsement. Regarding Mar’s lack of charisma, I once joked to his most avid supporters, very close friends of mine, that Mar would lose even if he ran unopposed. 🙂 for me, X-( for them. Now I know what comics mean when they say “I died.”

    At any rate that does not mean good packaging will not overcome Mar’s inherent handicap. It only means a lot of work to make Mar attractive. If the race comes down to Binay versus Mar and I were on Binay’s black propaganda team, I would have a poster of Korinna Sanchez with the words: “Do you really want her as your First Lady?” / “She could be your First Lady if you don’t vote wisely.” I think that will scare quite a number of voters away. 🙂 As for Poe, I would not play the DNA game. I would simply float the following questions or points: “Where were you when your father was campaigning for the presidency?”/ “You did not even come home from the US to campaign for him but now you are using your dead father’s name, the man you did not bother to help when he was running, as your campaign platform. You even changed your name to Poe when the name you first used when you announced your candidacy for senator, Llamanzares, did not register with the voters. Mahiya ka naman.” But I wouldn’t do that to either of them because, at the end of the day, I think they are good peeps. Although them running against Binay or Miriam would be closer to choosing the lesser evil rather than choosing the good over evil which would not be the case if Leni Robredo was the candidate because Leni versus Binay would be a clear-cut case of good versus evil. 🙂 Anyway, Mar it is if Leni is not picked by the president.

    • The idealist in me can get behind Leni but the realist in me believes she would have a hard time governing for the same reason Grace Poe would also have a hard time. She has not gathered a council of people whom she has a high degree of trust. The ties are still to light/weak. A President like that would be eaten alive by media people whose business is to wreck people’s career/reputation. Think how every pundit seems to have a gripe against a cabinet official. Without a band of brothers the cabinet would be like the latter half of lord of the flies.

      • manuel buencamino says:

        Well, Leni managed to trounce the wife of Luis Villafuerte, the lord of Camarines Sur, getting around 80% of the votes so she knows how to win. Second, she also has a lot of experience in people empowerment, having worked with her husband when he was Naga mayor and now as representative of her district. Third, she has charisma on top of her intelligence, the economics and legal background, the political smarts, and in most important of all, charisma.

        I like Leni Robredo because unlike most politicians she is not afraid of the people. She does not operate in the traditional carrot and stick manner. Instead she believes in governance through people empowerment, drawing the positive energies of an empowered constituency. Someone with that kind of attitude will have no difficulty picking and assembling the right people who will help her govern. Look at Erap and Gloria, they came into the presidency with solid ties and councils and yet…

        As to professional wrecking crews in media and elsewhere, they are only effective in magnifying a leader’s flaws. If they invent, their invented flaws never stand the test of time. A good leader will alway shine at the end. A mediocre leader is vulnerable but Leni is not mediocre, she is excellent so if she becomes president her detractors will have as much success as they have had with PNoy whose ratings have remained stratospheric in comparison to all previous presidents since 1986. And remember, Joker Arroyo once called PNoy’s communications group a bunch of high school kids.

    • Joe America says:

      I can tell you’ve spent about as many hours in the gambling pits as Sal has. And you even sound more sober. Nice perspective. Sal doesn’t really have a horse. Clearly, Poe running or not is a big deal to Roxas. And to Binay. And everybody else. For Roxas to win in that scenario, he’d have to make some mighty fine speeches and find a large sachet of instant charisma. And maybe play hardball with his opponents. One of the question marks I have about him, is he too nice a guy? I don’t want him to be nasty, but I want him to be tough and determined . . .

      • manuel buencamino says:

        Joe,

        Roxas overdid the tough and determined bit several years ago. Media was outraged by his remarks at an anti cha-cha rally in Makati but I loved it, of course. I was writing op-eds for Business Mirror at the time my piece I wrote, the first and only in ten years of writing op-eds for three papers, was censored as not appropriate for a breakfast mainstream paper. I loved that reason too. Here is my commentary on Mar’s tough speech which ended up as a post on my blog: http://www.uniffors.com/?p=1830

        • atong says:

          Mr. Buencamino. Can you publish the rejected letter/note too?
          Perhaps the P.I. word was over the top in the eyes of the editor?

          To me the contents of your piece is ok. If I was the editor-in-chief, I’ll ask you to reconsider the title and perhaps a little bit more meat in the contents and you are okay to go.

          But I’m never going to be ever be one.. will I? 🙂

        • Joe America says:

          Ah, I recall that incident. Thanks for the link. You explained the language hiccough well. I’m pleased to know that he can get fired up in a way that is purposeful without just being a temper tantrum.um. I think the DILG job has taught him how to moderate his frustrations and also ignore a lot of the criticisms. Those are important pragmatic tools for a president.

    • It would be more scary if you post this query- would you like Elenita Binay to be your First Lady? Haha!

  5. Think Sal is underestimating Erap. I have a hunch that the line drawn is Binay + Erap + Bong Bong + Bong versus the voters of Mar + Poe + Santiago + Lacson + Belmonte while Chiz would be divided equally.

    Team Binay
    Binay 26
    Erap 10
    Bong Bong 4
    Revilla 1
    Chiz 3.5
    Team Binay 44.5

    Team Anti Binay
    Poe 18
    MDS 12
    Mar 6
    Cayetano 3
    Lacson 2
    Drilon 2
    Gibo 1
    Belmonte 0.4
    Chiz 3.5
    Gordon 1
    Team Anti Binay 48.9

    What I think is scary is that I have a hunch that MDS has such a big ego that she may run even with little hope of winning. I hope she is rational enough not to do this.

    The lead is slim enough that anyone with at least 2-4% of the vote from team anti binay may yet spoil Mar’s party.

    As for Binay the biggest x factor for him would be Erap.

    The Blackops team of LP should really emphasize the fact that a vote for Binay is a vote for freedom for Bong Revilla/Jinggoy Estrada and Juan Ponce Enrile,

    If I was at Binay’s team I’d be pulling all the stops just to make MDS seem surging. Just get Poe or MDS to run and it is probably game over.

    • Joe America says:

      A most interesting alignment of teams. Yes, Santiago could do a Lacson and split the white hat ticket. And Erap would destroy Binay’s chances. Sal agrees with you that Erap is still a draw for some, but would cap him at 12% in a five-person race. Well, he said 11.8%, but I think he’s quibbling. . .

      • Juana Pilipinas says:

        Erap may be disqualified as a Presidential candidate as early as next month.

        http://www.manilatimes.net/erap-faces-ouster-manila-mayor/148890/

        Binay will push through his candidacy until his legal woes or Carpio-Morales catch up with him. Many hope that he cry, “Ayoko na” soon.

        I am putting my money on Mar Roxas-Leni Robredo team for 2016. I can not vote but I can influence people in my circle who have that right. I can be persuasive and charming. 🙂

        • Joe America says:

          Ha, yes, you can be persuasive and charming. And wield a fine ax, too, I suspect. Or hoe. A Roxas-Robredo team would be powerful. What a wonderful representation of the Philippines. Bright and brighter, straight and straighter. Purposeful and motivational.

  6. manuel buencamino says:

    Interesting numbers on performance ratings:

    Approval
    Binay: Dec 2013 – 80%, Mar 2014- 87%, June 2014 – 81%, Sept 2014- 66%, Nov 2014- 41%
    Mar: Dec 2013 – 71%, Mar 2014- 77%, June 2014 – 69%, Sept 2014- 46%, Nov 2014- 59%
    Disapproval for the same periods:
    Binay : 5%, 2%,4%,10%,23%
    Mar: 11%, 6%, 10%, 17%, 11%

    Trends in last two periods show positive for Mar and negative for Binay

  7. manuel buencamino says:

    I’m also amazed that Miriam beats everybody among the ABC class. But look at her numbers among the D&E classes. And some people believe the D&E classes are the ones who are stupid. 🙂

    • Joe America says:

      Yes, that jerked me up straight. So the qualifications for president among the enlightened classes are sex jokes and a quick lip. You should run. ahahahahahaha

      • manuel buencamino says:

        hahaha. Run as fast and as far away as I can

      • Mike Acuña says:

        Prior to the elections which saw Erap win by a “landscape”, his PR guys launched a book of erap jokes. Many believe the spread of these self-deprecating jokes created a reverse effect on the ridicule heaped on Erap as a dropout, womanizer and alcoholic. The jokes projected him as everyJuan. He won overwhelmingly, though he was later ousted.

        Miriam recently launched her own book of brain-damaged humor and propagates this in her public speeches. She may have hired the same pr manager or she’s plain copycatting. Either way she’s creating a brand using a proven tactic.

        Her opponents will play up her tantrums, fits of rage and maybe her impaired health. But like Erap and Binay, she’ll continue to play the “poor” card by using her jokes as a foot in the door. The majority of voters are in the D&E.

        This wass instrumental in what started Mar’s decline one week before the 2010 VP elections. Binay’s camp aired a video clip of Mar applauding Gloria Arroyo’s signing of the eVat into law. Said law was perceived by the D & E class as anti-poor although the knowledgeable among us saw that it as bitter but necessary medicine. They were right as it contributed to the country’s current economic status. It didn’t matter that the video was a splice of Mar clapping at the signing of his generics bill into law, since he supported the evat law and I think he co-authored it. That plus the approx. 3 million votes for him that weren’t counted conspired for his ‘seeming’ downfall. An initial forensic examination suggested possible tampering as most of those votes were in Mar’s bailiwick and the political analysts described Binay’s winning margin as the slimmest in a VP race in history.

        Have the the bookies in Vegas factored in vote buying and dirty tricks?

        • Mike Acuña says:

          Mar subsequently filed a protest with the Electoral Tribunal which saw merit in his request for a recount. Such cases have a history of concluding after the term of the related position expires.

        • Joe America says:

          Thanks for the brief on the Binay win, which has suspicious elements. Do you know why Roxas’ complaint has not been resolved after almost 5 years? Binay delay tactics or court negligence or what?

          Senator Santiago seems to have weak draw with the DE class, so she has her work cut out for her.

          Dirty tricks and rampant buying of votes are not factored into the equation. Binay pursues those methods at his own peril, and the risk/benefit is hard to judge.

          • bauwow says:

            Uncle Joe, may your bookie Sal have what we call a “dilang anghel!”

            @Mike, thank you for expounding on the reasons why Mar Roxas “lost” the 2010 VP elections. I still believe he won. How can anyone lose when he was leading comfortably a week before the elections? Some say he relaxed on his campaign to help Noynoy at the homestretch. Also, I have read somewhere before that Binay preferred to go back to manual counting of votes instead of an automated counting. Fishy.

    • atong says:

      I am from the D&E…
      Therefore I am stupid.
      And because Stupid is forever (cit. Mirriam Santiago)
      I am forever!

      Am I making sense at all?
      I am not? ..
      Hmm.. don’t blame me I am stupid

      I’m confused now.. I am lookign at my voters registration card.. Where does it indicate that I am a D&E?

      🙂

  8. Mariano Renato Pacifico says:

    Pulse Asia is a Filipino-run pollster. An organization run by a Filipino reeks of bias wherever they are trained or graduated from. My vegas bookie run by the Lucchese Family is betting Mar Roxas is goot for the Democratic Republic of the Philippine Islands. They are even betting on the stocks of Philippine Press.

    According to Joe Valachi, Gambino’s head political analyst, Binay will be re-elected in the future. Filipinos re-elected the Marcos Family. They re-elected the children of Estrada. They re-elected the political dynasty of the Aquinos. Those who wanted to outlaw and upvote anti-Dynasty are dreamers they will eventually be uprooted. Filipinos love Dynasty because they love drama. That is why Filipinos always name their children after their great parents with a roman numeral suffixes. Because it is Dynasty. They will soon outlaw the naming of children after the Aquinos, Estradas and Binays. Of course, they got it from Kim Jung Un. Where else? Filipinos are copycats. They even plagiarize the constitution of my country, The U.S.A. When my buddy Bill got impeached, it created a insane frenzy of impeachments in the Philippines.

    Mr. Valachi further analyzed that if Mar Roxas wins, it will doom the Philippine Media industry because the Industry makes money out of the miseries of Filipinos and its conspiracy the Industry spins out. Mar Roxas is so straight there would not be conspiracies and corruption in his administration. Filipinos do not buy papers for good news. Filipinos buy papers for bad news. Because Filipinos are crabs.

    On a goot note, Mr. Valachi said Mar Roxas is goot for Filipinos like Benigno Aquino. Both are straight arrows. To bump up the readership and circulation, the Philippine Press will go after the underlings ala Corona-ish and Napoles-ish and all other ishes. Conspiracy sells. Corruption sells more. Corruption at Malacanang sells the most.

    The Luchesse Family is betting if Filipinos became goot citizens, it is not doom for Philippine Press yet. They will pit Mar Roxas with Grace Poe. The first ever marriage in Malacanang and the first ever baby born in Malacanang. Filipinos go into a tizzy. There will be betting games on the sex of the baby … the name of the baby …. who the father is …. who crawled into the bed first ….

    Never a dull moment in the Philippines …. As my doctor always say, “LAUGHTER IS THE BEST MEDICINE” that is why Filipinos longevity has increased because IT IS FUN IN THE PHILIPPINES!

  9. Anne evangelista says:

    I don’t like any of the candidates for the President is the Philippines run out of good leader? So sad we faced so hard times

    • Joe America says:

      For me, I read it differently. Character is so important, and brains. The Philippine government is loaded with smart people, but they are wrapped up in a culture that coddles corruption. I think there are a LOT of people who could do the presidency well. Cayetano. Escudero. Poe. Roxas. Robredo. Villar. Teodoro. Their basic character is sound and we only have to concede to them the right to have a personality different than we imagine, and to make a few decisions we disagree with. Public pressure is enormous, as is the political machinery. I think it is hard for a president to mess around these days, with FOI coming down the pike. And with politics being cut throat. So I see the glass of presidential prospects as full, not empty.

    • Marie says:

      Are you some sort of not reading anything relevant or what?! Check out Mar Roxas’ profile before you go on saying the Philippines don’t have any good presidential candidates because for once in a very long time, we just might have a breakthrough in the form of Mar Roxas

      P.S. Check specifically what he did for the BPO industry of the country. Then what Atty. Leni Robredo’s daughter says about him as they knew him better than you. Then and only then you might want to slap your mouth.

      Good day!

  10. Mariano Renato Pacifico says:

    One thing about Philippine political analytics is nobody is right and nobody is wrong. They can only be proven right when the count is done. They can only be proven wrong when the elected sits on the throne. And the actual winner are the pockets of Philippine Press and the actual losers are the voters. The voters claim they are not at fault but the one they elected. The elected said s/he not resigning, else, it would be tantamount to absconding the will of the people.

    Mariano says IT IS THE FAULT OF THE U.P.-GRADUATES THAT RUN THE PHILIPPINE MEDIA. The voters based on their selection of politicians on biased paid U.P. graduates that run the Philippine Media, SWS and Pulse Asia.

    Of course, the Filipinos has a penchant for graduates from Ateneo, la Salle and U.P. candidates. They vote for them. And the most crooks are graduates from U.P. more especially those that speaks country-club English with Gentlemen’s Club demeanors.

    So, I’d rather be foul-mouth and honest than having English demeanors that steal your pockets.

    Journalist: “Sir, why do you run for elected office?”
    Candidate: “That is where the money is”
    Journalist: “Of course, yes, of course. Thank you for having me here.”

  11. I shudder every time a see another picture of Binay and Poe together. The latest was FPJ’s death anniversary. Poe’s relationship with Binay and Erap gives me the heebie-jeebies. Will she let Erap and Binay off the hook if she is voted as President?

    I do not know Poe well so I am not being judgmental. I just have this unease and mild anxiety about her emanating from her silence about Binay and Erap’s corruption. Is her “utang na loob” greater than her integrity?

    Please enlighten me.

    • Joe America says:

      I can’t enlighten you. I share your unease.

    • Juana Pilipinas says:

      *I see

      • parengtony says:

        First off, where am I coming from…

        My current choice is Grace Poe and I think she will win if she runs.

        A. My current choice is Grace Poe –

        She seems intelligent, hard working, down to earth, and highly principled like FPJ. At this time the only major criticism of her is her perceived closeness to a) Erap and b) Binay as well as the very crude allegation that c) Ferdinand Marcos is her biological father. —

        a) Based on the extremely limited personal knowledge of Erap as a politican, an elected official, and as a distant associate in the business of politics, I am of the belief that Erap was a way better president than his predecessor FVR and his successor GMA. Corollarily,
        I also strongly believe that Erap will not impose on the daughter of his best friend if she becomes president.

        b) As to Binay, if and when Grace declares her candidacy, this foregoing issue becomes academic.

        c) The “Marcos is her biological father” is nothing more than an sly innuendo as it is completely unfounded.

        B. Grace Poe will win if she runs for president in 2016. My interpretation of Joe’s survey data is bolder but not without basis:

        Binay’s 26% will continue to fall;
        Grace’s 18% will continue to rise;
        Mirriam (12%) will not run and will reaffirm her endorsement of Grace Poe-Duterte tandem;
        Erap (10%) will not run and will endorse Grace Poe as Erap categorically stated in Neil Cruz’s Inquirer column today.
        Escudero (7%) will not run and will endorse Grace Poe.

        So, it will not matter whether it’s a 2-way (Binay vs Grace), 3-way (Binay, Grace, Mar), or 4-way fight, Grace will come out victorious.

        From the perspective of socio economic classes A-B-C ( about 4 million votes), D (about 24 million votes), and E (about 12 million votes), the following may be reasonably argued:

        1. Grace- with help from Mirriam- and Mar will share the bulk of ABC votes.
        2. Binay- with Erap gone to Grace – will lose D and E votes to Grace.

    • Bert says:

      I know Binay is not off the hook, but Erap? I wonder.

  12. Pinoyputi says:

    I read a lot of wishful thinking. And opposite to a lot of your commenters I don’t believe Mar stands a change. Just like Binay the momentum works against him. Sure, he is intelligent, handsome and rich. But he only got it right with Ruby, it took him a few bagyo’s, to learn. Crime situation got worse. He lacks a decent PR person. Intelligent but a little dumb and slow.
    I don’t have a preferred choice, it would have been Robredo but he got in a deadly accident. For Poe too, there are to many questions, but i believe she will run. She and Miriam got the upwards momentum. But then again it is still more than a year to go. Why don’t you set up your own betting poll. I’ll start reading the tea leaves and win. 😀

    • Joe America says:

      Yes, there may be wishful thinking, and there may be different aspects to Mar Roxas than what you or I might see. I’m not sure who he has guiding his PR, if anyone at all. I don’t like the “be like Robredo” approach unless that is natural for Mar. It seems like it is not, and so he gets awkward photos taken. I’d rather see him in a business suit than shirt sleeves once in a while. Like the investment banker he used to be, that is an important part of a public image, I think. My aim in the blog was to figure out the numbers in some future context. It could all get blown out of the water if Poe did decide to run (what do your tea leaves say?). But I do see some limits on Binay’s draw, and on Santiago’s. So I don’t think Roxas’ 6% puts him out of the running at all.

      • Pinoyputi says:

        The tea leaves tell me, she’ll run.

        • Joe America says:

          That has a potential bad and ironic twist to it. If it is not on the LP ticket, that means she splits the “good guy” votes, like Lacson did to her father, with the greater possibility that Binay will win. As Arroyo won. If she were to run on the LP ticket, then that is a different matter.

          • parengtony says:

            In the case of 2004, Lacson was the spoiler for FPJ so Arroyo was gifted with the opening to cheat her way to victory. In 2016 only Grace Poe can grab the D and E votes (90% of the votes) from Binay. Certainly not Mar as was proven in the 2010 VP elections. If neither Grace nor Erap runs in 2016, Binay is a sure winner.

          • Pinoyputi says:

            True, but read link below. Erap will support Poe against Binay. My leaves don’t tell yet who will be up for her VP position. Bye bye Binay, except when the Joker (Manny) comes in play. If Poe is smart, she gets him for VP. He won’t do anything anyway except run the sport commission
            http://opinion.inquirer.net/80948/erap-to-support-poe-against-binay

          • Bert says:

            I think Pres. Noynoy will go for a winner in the 2016 presidential race for some obvious reasons. If Mar Roxas ratings does not budge to an upward trajectory which I think it will not, the president will opt for somebody else who can assure him of continuing with his clean program of government but definitely not Binay since Binay is a damaged product already. This will depend on how solid is his hold on the Liberal Party stalwarts, though it would be foolish for the party to hold on and insists on someone that is not winnable. If it does, then Binay will be it. And so, it is possible that the LP and the president will consider Grace Poe to be their standard bearer, having no one else aside from her approaching near the ratings of Binay.

  13. Andrew Arevalo says:

    It’s good to see vantage points from you guys but always remember the Iglesia vote. If the numbers stay the same near the elections the Iglesia will surely vote for the “Llamado” or the favorite. If that happens and binay is still on top, then, for sure the votes will go to him and will secure the presidency. By the way, I am still wondering what numbers will come up for a Poe-Robredo tandem?

    • Joe America says:

      So Iglesia goes with the favorite so the favorite, whcn elected, continues to share favor with the church? That makes sense, but seems rather pragmatic or even manipulative for God’s children.

      Sal says the Poe-Robredo tandem has a 0.031% chance of coming to fruition, so it does not make sense to run the odds of winning. 🙂 I personally think it would be a superb team, but I don’t see either lady having the organizational backing or money or daring to pull it off. Poe seems rather reluctant to step in for reasons I can’t quite grasp, unless her loyalty to people is greater than her loyalty to country. That is, if she is a trapo.

    • sitsiritsit says:

      there are stories that iglesia gives support to the “highest bidder.” thus it is important for the candidates to have enough funds to get their support and to those who can give them access to government projects, the judiciary, and armed forces. in a southern tagalog province, some small projects are given to contractors who are members of iglesia.

  14. Felix Zamar says:

    I love the exchange of views here. all proper and good grammar from the A B C class definitely.

    • Joe America says:

      Well, Felix, we also have at least one D&E who is willing to mix and match wits, and quite well, thanks, and I personally don’t place much stock on grammar if the ideas get through. We work at cross cultures and cross language for some, but the bold go where they must. That said, there ARE a lot of smart people hanging around these parts, eh? 🙂 Good of you to stop by with your amusing observation.

  15. Louie Reyes says:

    Hope springs eternal!!
    Now I can finally get some sleep..Thank you, JA.

  16. Juan Masipag says:

    Good day to you Joe! Have been an ardent follower of your blog as well as Ms. Raissa, Anyway I have this gut feeling Mar Roxas (and the Liberal Party) could pull of a surprise win. Considering the work the DILG Secretary has show in the Visayas and the support that will come from Mindanao (due to the peace agreement), the supposed “masa vote” will be negated by the votes coming from these area I have just mentioned. Historically Luzon has always been an opposition hub to an incumbent administration (historically also Luzon is divided when the vote counts) i.e. former presidents has always been keen on getting the Visayas and Mindanao respectively to ensure a comfortable lead. Luzon may make fun of Mar Roxas all they want in the end the people who have felt the faithful and sincere service of our government will eventually deliver the votes for Roxas! I am from Luzon and I will vote for Roxas!

    • Joe America says:

      Very good arguments as to WHY Mar Roxas will rise in popularity. Because he is working hard and earnestly. Get him out of that politically deranged city of Tacloban, and people can see his sincerity and productivity. The main opposing force seems to be a popular need to ridicule him because he is from a rich family. That is rather like racial discrimination to me, overlaying bad motives on a person without considering who he is, as an individual. Or at least it is playing the crab, tearing down someone for our own neediness. I now feel a new blog coming on . . . 🙂

      Good of you to follow here, Juan . . . thanks.

      • atong says:

        Looks like you are describing the D&E class there Mr Joe America? hehehe…

        Generally we the D&E are ones that determine the election results, we outnumber all other classes combined by at least 4 to 1.

        We don’t read the papers, we don’t read blogs like these, we use the internet only for porn, games and facebook to find out what our friends are saying about us.

        We get swayed too easily, especially if money is handed over around election day. We don’t care how the politico got his mansions and 4wds as long as he brings in the artistas to perform at the plaza during fiestas and around election time…

        All the president wannabe has to do is to appease us the D&E and we will give him malacanang!

        • Joe America says:

          atong, you are herein designated the Society’s Chief of D&E Representation. Or the Kingmaker, whichever designation you prefer most. No, no. Never mind. You are herein designated the Kingmaker.

          Choose well.

      • Juan Masipag says:

        A side remark Joe, I also believe that if the good Secretary could dump his wife who I believe is such a BIG excess baggage, he would probably win by a landslide (pun intended) 🙂

        • Joe America says:

          That is another blog just waiting to be written. The Korina stone . . . around his neck . . .

        • Bert says:

          What has Korina done to deserve that kind of treatment? Is distributing slippers to the needy no value at all?

          • Joe America says:

            I’d suggest waiting for Monday’s blog to debate this matter, Bert. I’ll devote the entire blog to Korina Sanchez, as related to the Roxas campaign.

          • Al says:

            if korina really wants to help, she should be giving more to the poor than just slippers. there are also stories that she is too picky when having pictures with the beneficiaries. she is not too accommodating. plus she carelessly commented on national tv that typhoon ruby should hit japan instead since it is more prepared in this type of calamities. and she also insinuated that the report of anderson cooper on the government’s response to the needs of typhoon yolanda’s victims was not accurate when anderson was actually in tacloban while she was sitting in her radio studio.

  17. Well, i was just waiting Mr. Duterte of Davao City to say yes for Presidency this coming 2016 election..He is definitely the last hope of the Philippines..I go for Federalism system of Gov’t.in PH to lessen the corruption.

    • Joe America says:

      You know, Ree, I understand your admiration for Mr. Duterte. He speaks straight and true, and without remorse at times. Which is refreshing when we hear all the spin and tripe coming from the trapos. But his drawback – which he recognizes – is exactly that, an impatience that just does not fit the diplomatic style of national government, which is a lot of powerful people having to get along with one another to get anything done. The head of government needs a management discipline, and a diplomatic discipline, to work through other people, many of whom don’t report to him. And to be circumspect when speaking to the press, so as not to rile China or America or the Oligarchs. So his sledgehammer approach may work badly.

  18. cetootski says:

    I can’t fathom how, in our long history, run-off elections never entered the debate as a solution to our divisive nature. It would solve a lot of our woes while eliminating the “because I just can’t let that guy be president” vote.

    • Joe America says:

      Yes, force a 50% winner and there can be no excuses or rationalizations as to who selected the President. “We the people did”, not a purchased minority. I had not thought about it until now, but you make good sense.

  19. Steve says:

    I don’t buy it. Roxas is too remote and too elite. Erap will drop, and Binay will get his votes, unless Poe runs. If Poe drops, a lot of her votes – the Poe Sr legacy votes – will go to Binay. Miriam will stubbornly hang in and divert enough votes from the LP candidate to put Binay in office. Unless the LP and other anti-Binay forces can unite behind a single consensus candidate and persuade others to drop out, Binay will still win.

    • Joe America says:

      Your scenario is a reasonable one. It hinges on Aquino’s endorsement and aggressive campaigning not being able to change misconceptions about Roxas, Poe’s decision, and Santiago’s stubbornness. A split LP ticket is a real possibility given behind the scenes factors and political hard-headedness. Sal pegs the split ticket aided win for Binay at 33%, versus a Roxas win at 55%. Poe makes up the difference. Sal says Binay’s crash is far from over and will eventually pick up popular momentum in the DE class.

      • Steve says:

        I’m not so sure that I’d trust Sal’s judgment over my own. I think the value of endorsements is overrated, and I doubt that Aquino’s endorsement would be sufficient to overcome Roxas’ basic inability to generate any kind of traction with the “masa”. This bracket is less concerned with competence (to them an abstract concept with little visible impact on their lives) than with identity politics and name identification. Poe could potentially cut into this voter base, especially if Erap campaigns for her. If Poe doesn’t run, it is difficult to see how Binay loses: he will pull in the FPJ legacy votes and the Estrada/Enrile machinery will be fully on his side. Roxas and Miriam can fight over the ABC vote but neither will make enough inroads in the masa to matter. It should not be forgotten that Binay has been preparing for this a long time, and that he, Estrada, and Enrile are not exactly rookies at campaigning to the masses. A Poe run could split that machine to some extent… but will that happen? The extent to which Poe is influenced by Binay, Estrada, et. al. remains very much unclear. As a career move for Poe, a run as VP makes more sense. She’s a sure winner. If Miriam or Binay wins there’s a solid chance that either will not finish their term. Poe would be almost an automatic front runner next time round and would stand a solid chance at being able to campaign from Malacanang, as GMA did. That might not be what’s best for the country, but you can bet safely that a few people are whispering that refrain into Poe’s ear.

        • Joe America says:

          A fine argument. I think if Poe opted to be Binay’s vice president, though, she would become a pariah, too. And if the Philippines chooses Santiago as president, the nation will lose its continuity on defense and its management cohesion. Check Friday’s blog. But neither of us can read the future, so let us patiently await the unfolding of events.

          I very much appreciate your contrary point of view.

          • Steve says:

            Poe doesn’t have to run as Binay’s VP to win… there are no real political parties here, in the sense that other countries understand political parties, and it’s not uncommon to have a winning President from one faction and VP from another. Poe could easily run with Roxas and end up as Binay’s VP, much as Binay did with Aquino. I agree on Santiago: I appreciate what she does, but I can’t see her as an effective President. I also can’t see her winning, though she could split the non-Binay vote enough to put Binay in office.

            I am no bookie, but I’ve been watching (and occasionally writing about) Philippine politics since Marcos. We will see…

          • Bert says:

            I agree with your assessments, Steve. And if President Noynoy agrees with you, too, then I think he will do the right thing, that is he will choose Grace Poe over Roxas, and hope Grace Poe continues his good government initiatives. Grace Poe the standard bearer of the LP in the election is more than just mere endorsement by the president. If the president is really serious in this issue of good and clean governance, he could not possibly and rightly choose Roxas knowing Roxas, as you said,will lose to Binay.

            Binay is a family friend, and the family might be inclined to see a Binay win, but President Noynoy can’t honestly just say, “I want my successor to continue my good government plan for the country therefore Mar Roxas is my pick…”, knowing that Roxas will lose to Binay. The Filipino people is a smart people and will see through the ruse. It will destroy his legacy that he so painstakingly and meticulously nurtured the past four years of his administration.

  20. mannyvalleramos says:

    Well, everybody has it’s own opinion. Mine is for someone who could really continue the programs of Pnoy. The Liberal Party right now is trying to get the best pair to run against the best opposition. I think most likely Mar Roxas is favored to be their bet. And they prefer Grace Poe as VP. If Grace Poe declines, then Leni Robredo is the best alternate. Because Liberal Party’s commitment on anti-corruption program has a huge impact on the majority of the voters, regardless of Robredo’s inexperience but with a clean name, she will prevail together with Mar Roxas in 2016 election. People are sick and tired of these corrupt officials.

    • Joe America says:

      “People are sick and tired of these corrupt officials.” EXACTLY. That is the mood swing that has developed over the past year. Apathy has eroded. People are fed up with it. I personally like your scenario.

  21. Reality Bites says:

    “Programs of PNoy” — Which programs are those?

    “People are sick and tired of corrupt officials” — Which corrupt officials are those?

    So Joe, Mar Roxas is your favorite, right? “He follows the straight path and is dedicated to doing work over politicking.” That perception is based on what real-world events and facts?

    • Joe America says:

      Well, Reality, I’m inclined to wait for you to put your perspective on the table, as a positive statement, rather than respond to questions that seem loaded like a trap.

  22. Reality Bites says:

    It’s not that complicated, Joe. I am asking if you can provide the following. Straight questions looking for straight answers…..

    1. List PNoy’s programs that he launched and accomplished during these years. Then we can see if they are many, if they are good and if they are the types that would be good for the Philippines if Mar and his LP party were to win.

    2. If people are sick of corrupt officials, which ones are they? Can we see specific names with specific charges and with specific proof?

    3. Which programs, actions, policy successes has Mar launched and achieved which demonstrates his desire and ability to following the straight path?

    4. Which programs, actions and policy successes has Mar launched and achieved which demonstrates his desire and ability to prioritize work over politics?

    These seem to be your assertions and I’m asking what led you to believe in them. It most certainly isn’t a trap if you have good reasons to support your assertions. And why would my views affect your explanations of why and how you came to your previously stated conclusions?

  23. Reality Bites says:

    Wow. An inquiry requesting the basis of your conclusions is an “inquisition”?

    And you need to do research in order to know what concrete, meaningful policies were possibly pursued by PNoy, Mar and the LP which makes them successful?

    My statement, I guess…now that I’ve seen your reaction, is that you don’t seem to know why A is better than B and worse than C…or why these policies and platforms are better than other policies and platforms.

    I spent more than an hour reading your latest entries and some of the commentaries and you (and some regulars?) are obviously pro-Roxas. I saw you defending him, praising him and promoting him as the best presidential candidate.

    I don’t like Binay, Estrada, Escudero, Cayetano or any of the main protagonists. Santiago is an outsider, looking in. Poe is a little untested for such a position at his time, it seems to me. So don’t worry — I don’t have an anti-Mar candidate to counter with.

    But I don’t see what Roxas brings to the table that makes him so credible. And I don’t see what PNoy or this batch of LP politicians have brought in these last few years. From what I can tell, they are one of the biggest reasons that the general population is feeling angry. Corruption is now and here…and these are today’s leaders in the here and now.

    So I’m confused as to why this group is being touted as a good solution to the problems that this very group is presiding over…which is what you are seemingly doing. And you can’t explain why? Surprising.

    • Joe America says:

      Well, I’m pleased the blog inspired you to spend time thinking about matters. That is its primary purpose. That said, I find your style offputting because it conveys subtle challenges to motive or capability, which are personal attacks of the kind that I think are unnecessary to the discussion of issue. The subtly snide “surprising” close to your remark is a good example of that.

      Perhaps you are new to the blog. The purpose is not to promote an agenda, other than the well-being of the Philippines. It is to promote discussion, and being provocative (on issues, not personal qualities of those who participate) in furtherance of that aim is a part of the method.

      The purpose of this particular blog is not to sell Mar Roxas, but to show a scenario in which his potential could be misrepresented by the 6% of the “votes” he garnered in the recent survey. It is also aimed at highlighting two key factors determining his success or lack thereof: Poe’s decision whether or not to run, and Santiago’s upside potential. As intended, people have bounced off those postulations, some agreeing with the scenario cast, some not. Some finding relief in the idea that their preferred candidate does have a chance.

      As for the President’s success or lack thereof, that is an important topic. I’ve written many times to that subject and don’t feel compelled to bring that to this discussion. I think we disagree on the matter, and to find any possible way to reconcile that, we’d have to agree on what “metrics” we are going to use to judge his progress. I use economic stability and growth as reflected in rating agency evaluations, the Philippines standing in various global indicators such as corruption (most showing steady improvement), management style (ability to delegate, capability of hires, transparency, methodology of aiming toward numbers), and important achievements (ITLOS filing, Bangsamoro Agreement, shoring up of defense, work to address poverty). I don’t expect perfection and I do expect him to do things differently than I might do them.

      You paint a dire portrait of 2016 presidential possibilities, essentially finding none who meet your high standards. Including Mar Roxas. I suspect we have different metrics there, too. Mine again aren’t to expect perfection, but to expect a straight path administration, stability and earnest governance. In that regard, I would find a number of people worth “supporting”, including Mar Roxas.

      What I would suggest is that you not try to resolve all of these matters in a few blog comments, as they are incredibility intricate. That is why I resisted your “inquisitorial” style. I could not possibly do justice to the questions you posed in the few minutes it takes to do a response to a comment. We would just break down into argument. And I am not inclined to march off to recast the nearly 800 blogs I’ve written to try to satisfy your curiosity.

      I’d suggest you ride along with the blog for a time and join the flows of positive debate, devoid of challenges about personal motivation or capability. Let’s break some of the complex issues into their component parts and you can add your shading to them.

      The finest challenge every contributor faces here is to do that kind of thing respectfully. In that regard, those who read and comment here are highly considerate and skilled. You are welcome to join the discussions any time, on that basis.

  24. Jose Guevarra says:

    Love, love, LOVE this scenario that Sal has painted for you, Joe. Makes me still have hope for the Philippines.

    Will be heading home to Manila tomorrow till the 11th of January. If you happen to be around, hit me up. Would love, love, LOVE to meet the man behind the words!

    • Joe America says:

      Nice thoughts, Jose. I’m glad you find inspiration in the blog. I appreciate the idea of meeting, but my wife has my holidays all figured out already, and I won’t be in Manila. 🙂 I wish you the best for the holidays in snowy Manila. Have a great trip.

  25. Mike Ramos says:

    goodluck…be realistic

  26. bibo says:

    uhhh wheres the mayor from davao?? mayor duterte is considered a dark horse ( my opinion )

    • Joe America says:

      One thing for sure we know about him is that he is unpredictable and inconsistent, but certain that if there is a misunderstanding, it is our fault and he’ll kill us if it continues.

  27. Ibarra Siapno says:

    Hello Joem. From a reliable source, someone told me that Grace will run for Presidency. My friend and their team are preparing to campaign for her. I wonder what would be the statistics then?

  28. Joey ayroso says:

    I don’t believe on survey, its bias. They could not explain what’s the mechanics how they get there survey, what was there basis, none……

  29. crissy says:

    love reading all your pointof views

  30. Joe America says:

    Sal’s smart. He has “the vision.”

Trackbacks
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  1. […] Sal’s projection that Mar Roxas is likely to be the next president of the Philippines (“The odds are that Mar Roxas will be the next president“), how do we imagine Korina Sanchez would work as First […]

  2. […] JoeAm: “Huh? How do you figure? You said she wouldn’t run for president, and Roxas would pick up her votes. Roxas won’t get them!” [Refer to JoeAm’s blog: “The odds are that Mar Roxas will be the next president”] […]

  3. […] The odds are that Mar Roxas will be the next president In this article, we meet JoeAm’s bookie, Sal, a guy with swagger and a very calculating mind. It’s a good thing President Aquino did not cite Sal instead of JoeAm. Let’s just say his confidence needs no further boosting. […]

  4. […] that Joe America, with help of his favorite bookie “Sal”, essayed their prediction that “the odds are that Mar Roxas will be the next president” as early as December 14, […]



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