Why Grace Poe should not run for president in 2016
[Photo credit: Canadian Inquirer]
We also read a few weeks ago that the Liberal Party was noodling on a Roxas/Poe tandem for President/Vice President. Well, no wonder. That is the presidential “dream team”, one that would beat Binay soundly baring a manipulated election (refer to JoeAm blog “The Mamasapano hearings as a launch pad to the presidency”).
Here are three reasons it would be a mistake for Grace Poe to run for president in 2016:
(1) Binay would win the election
Grace Poe would do to Mar Roxas . . . nay, to the Philippines . . . what Panfilo Lacson did to her father. Assure that the straight path has no chance.
Let’s be hard with our opinions here and say that Mar Roxas is going to be the Liberal Party’s chosen presidential candidate. It’s been that way for five years now, and it will stay that way. President Aquino will make the LP selection and he is sealed to Roxas by honor-bound appreciation for Roxas stepping aside to let Mr. Aquino move into the Palace. And Mr. Roxas has carried huge loads for Mr. Aquino, from the siege of Zamboanga to clean-up of Mamasapano. Mr. Aquino knows loyalty, for sure. We’ve seen that over and over again. No reason is strong enough, at this stage, to knock Mar Roxas off the table.
We can also be assured that Mar Roxas will not step out of the race a second time. He is in it to win it.
So Grace Poe’s entry in the race will hand the presidency to Binay. She will split the Roxas voting base, and he will split hers.
(2) Poe would end up as damaged goods
A presidential campaign would be very unkind to Senator Poe. She has four serious vulnerabilities that opponents would exploit.
First, chairing a few hearings is not the same as running the Executive branch. Executive branch is staffed with heavyweights of considerable experience and authority managing important activities through some 20 subordinate departments undertaking activities about which Senator Poe knows very little. The government would run the presidency, not the other way around.
- Senator Poe led the Mamasapano hearing as a witch hunt for culprits. She did not display the mature democratic composure needed to both understand and heal:
- Poe failed to acknowledge that Executive branch has the constitutional authority to deal with the security of the Philippines. It is a huge responsibility, keeping the nation safe. Her witch-hunt incited the tabloid press and political players to run riot. It weakened the Office of the President and destabilized the Philippines. She was oblivious to all of this.
- Poe failed to grasp that delegation of responsibility is an essential executive discipline required of the President to handle his many obligations. Her naive view that the President should know everything and not let mistakes happen suggests the Philippines is little more than a one dimensional schoolroom democracy.
- The senator fell into the trap of evaluating military exercises from a civilian point of view, as if battles should be fought in the fields of political hindsight instead of with guns and casualties. The hunt for Marwan was a military success, at high cost. It is an impossible burden to ask the military to put their lives at risk for the nation, then examine their decisions (and operating tactics) under a political microscope. That’s horrid military leadership.
- If she does not understand the authorities and responsibilities of the Office of the President, or delegation, or the military facts of life, how can she be President?
Second, Senator Poe has already established a reputation as a trapo, someone who favors the favored rather than the nation’s well being. Her silence on the Binay corruption scandal illustrates this. Would she pardon VP Binay if he were to end up in jail? He is the godfather of her child, after all. Once mistrust is lodged, it is difficult to remove. Mistrust is lodged and that particular drum will beat loudly during the whole campaign period.
Third, she has established a reputation as a hypocrite, someone who says one thing but does another. In the Senate, she argues for transparency. Yet in her own life and dealings, she is totally hidden, not revealing her secret campaign initiatives, not revealing where she really stands on Binay or the three jailed senators, and operating behind the scenes, behind a curtain of privacy. She has been in attack mode on Purisima in every forum. He’s a little guy. She has been in silent mode on Binay and other large, corrupt fish.
Finally, the rumors on her parentage as a supposed Marcos love child will not go away. This is the Philippines, a land where myths become great truths. Indeed, they become elaborate, elegant truths. She can say what she wants, but people will believe the salacious. It is in the bloodstream of a superstitious, tabloidian, emotional, drama-loving people. And to many Filipinos, Marcos is in HER bloodstream.
Added to these labels – inexperienced, trapo, hypocrite, and love child – would be the stigma of having allowed Binay to win.
Grace Poe: inexperienced, trapo, hypocrite, love child and spoiler.
Make no mistake. That is not what I think of her.
I don’t think she is a Marcos love child, and if she were, I would not care.
Everything else she is, however, is of her own making.
(3) Grace Poe will never get into the presidency if she runs in 2016
Roxas and Poe both running for president will hand Binay the win. When Binay is in office, he will not let go. Whether it is term extension for himself or family members following him, his drive for power and legacy is too intense for him to simply step aside at the end of his term.
Poe would have to sell her soul to the devil, or to Binay, if they are different, to become President.
Should she run as Vice President with Binay, her career is done. Some stains do not wash off in a lifetime.
And, frankly, she would be foolish to listen to any promises he might make to her. Ask former Makati Vice Mayor Mercado about Binay’s promises.
Grace Poe WILL become president in 2022 if she runs for Vice President along side of Mar Roxas
Guaranteed.
If she applies herself diligently, she will emerge in six years with a whole new set of labels: experienced, earnest, dedicated to the Philippines, capable.
Ready.
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[…] “Poe has already established a reputation as a trapo, someone who favors the favored rather than the nation’s well being. Her silence on the Binay corruption scandal illustrates this. Would she pardon VP Binay if he were to end up in jail? He is the godfather of her child, after all. Once mistrust is lodged, it is difficult to remove. Mistrust is lodged and that particular drum will beat loudly during the whole campaign period.” read more […]
The Society of Honor by Joe America 
I find your commentary believable and most discerning. I hope Poe will listen to you. I used to like her a lot but as time goes by she is self-destructing. There’s no doubt she’s a blood child of the great orator, debater, bar topnotcher, and decorated war hero.
Yes, Jenn, I agree. She has missed so many opportunities to distinguish herself as a person of dignity and substance, right for the Philippines. It came to me as I sat down to draft out this blog how empty of “big picture democratic wisdom” her chairmanship was. It was a huge exercise to find a culprit, and there were so many ways the Mamasapano incident could have gone right . . . but didn’t . . . that it ended up throwing mud on everyone, from peace negotiators to SAF to AFP to the President to the cease fire team to MILF to the US. It was rather a massive crabbing exercise, and her accusatory tone set the pace.
I think that by playi g hard to get she has mossed the boat. I was going to vote for her if she ran alongside roxas as his vp. At this point i will vote for robredo or santos should they decide to run.
I think the talk about Leni Robredo is heating up. I don’t see much about Santos, but I don’t follow everybody. 🙂
hi sir. i have started reading your blog after Pnoy’s sona.. it was really educating sometimes intriguing but always a great read.. but on your take about poe’s running for president.. i disagree 100%.. for me i want her to run for president in 2016.. because everybody will see that she is really a ambitious trapo.. i dont want her to run with Mar Roxas.. (God forbid ) that binay wins and poe wins also as VP it will be a just like the good old days.. remember she has a lot of utang na loob to binay & erap.
Santos who?…
Vilma Santos, movie and television entertainer, wife of Senator Recto, Governor of Batangas. She evidently today declined to run as Vice President to Mar Roxas.
Hello again, JoeAm! We don’t always see eye to eye but on this instance, to a tee.
I am not as 100% for Mar Roxas (maybe around 80% to date), but sadly, my quest is NOT TO LET BINAY HAVE THE PRESIDENCY.
I know it is a tall order for Roxas to get the masses on his side, considering his wife will be his biggest Achiles heel here. But yes, Poe will divide the electorate.
And yes, I agree that she didn’t do well with the Mamasapano hearings. There are many things she still has to learn. She has given our Armed Forces a black eye, I don’t think they will be too eager to serve under her at this point.
Yes, 2022 should be a good time for her, considering her children are still quite young and will need their mother to raise them to be productive citizens of this nation.
Good points, jenni. Be sure to comment when we disagree. I’m still learning. I may sound like a know-it-all, but most of that is to get the discussion started.
Do you think Prez Cory Aquino has more than of Sen Grace Poe? Or takot lang kasi mananalo siya. FPJ actually won, di ba pumasok sa isip nyo na dinaya sya. Anong proof ang kailangan. Pag naniwala ka na zero si FPJ sa isang precint… Patingin na sa doctor…
I wasn’t around when Cory was President, but in her speeches, she seemed to have a deeper grasp of nation and sacrifice. I don’t know if she was a part of “trapo” influences as is Grace Poe, based on her close ties to Senator Escudero.
its obvious, joe america is a die hard funs of nonoy aquino, and who ever indorse by Aquino is also lording by joe., however mr joe, your observations is far from the truth, you are dreaming in the middle of the day.
Better to dream than have nightmares, I suppose. Who do you like for President, and why? I presume Grace Poe. But why? What will she bring to the office?
sir, then my question to you is what will the other presidentiables bring? you are trying so hard to prove that grace will do nothing… mar, for how many years in the government has been inept and close to failure, binay cant even answer a college students question… making old people feel loved by giving them cake and plundering on the side. You have underestimated poe, she is one of the few who have brains in the government and with zero record in corruption… i dont know what kind of dream you are having,
You didn’t answer my question, exactly what will Grace Poe bring to the Philippines. All I have heard so far is complaints about the Aquino Administration, rather like yours, and a 20 point plan that was so general as to be contradictory. Like, investing in infrastructure and taking care of the poor whilst cutting taxes. You also talk in generalities, in condemning Roxas and lavishing praise on Poe. Can someone please inform readers what she will BUILD, and have it make some sense? As far as I can tell, she is running a populist campaign, along with Escudero, by complaining. I want to know what she will bring. She has no record of corruption because she has basically no record, at least in the management of large sums of money.
No need to go to personal slights to make your argument. Just inform readers specifically what she will do.
Hey joe why don’t you run for presidency you seem to talk as if you know everything about Philippines you are all talk pure kiaw go back to America and talk about Obama
Hi, Noel. What issues in particular are you referring to that I have erred? I don’t claim fallibility. I do try to be courteous.
I live here permanently and choose not to be a lazy bug crawling across the landscape. Maybe just don’t read if you can’t deal with it.
Check the photo of Rosemarie Sonora and Grace Poe… I don’t see it’s by chance that face are same…
I agree with you.
If grace runs as mar roxas president, grace may win vp but she will be the vp of binay… the matuwid na daan had some small success but known for accomplishing nothing and really all scandalsbare exposed but not a single iota of conviction meaning all blames … and thingsvwhich pnoy should have shown strength bybacceptingvthe mistakes he blamed others… and mar promises to be a copycat of pnoy so many are inclined not to vote for him… just look at the survey figures… if people find pnoy useless and weak, mar is even more so
Would you rather have someone inexperienced and clueless like Grace? She is a liar and opportunist. Read this article from the US Government publishing Office.Search Government Publications
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77 FR 44310 – Quarterly Publication of Individuals, Who Have Chosen To Expatriate, as Required by Section 6039G [PDF 83 KB]
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…JEE-WOO DEAN LEE TONY KWOK CHEN LEE VICTORIA KATIE LEE WENDY WAI SHUM LEUNG KING ANSELM LI ADRIENNE MAY LI JEREMY YUEN LIM LLAMANZARES MARY GRACE POE LO TINA YI-CHUN LOMAX BRITANNIA ROSE LU LUCY KAI YEE LUI ANDREA MAALOUF RACHID FAUZI MAK ARTHUR TAK… More Information
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A corrupt official, and more importantly a President for that matter, who steal billions from our government, is no lesser than a “collaborator” during the war. He is, in short, a TRAITOR to our country….Please add this “word” to your discription of her blood father.
I’m afraid I don’t know who you are talking about edgar. Ferdinand Marcos? You are presuming he is Grace Poe’s father?
Please read this analysis Senator Grace Poe.
Bing should there be a link in your comment?
No, he wants Senator Poe to read the blog article. For her own good . . .
🙂
Here’s what I am seeing in my reliable crystal ball.
1. Binay is heavily tainted thus no good-quality politician will dare soil his/her name running as his vice-president. Binay knows this so his option is look somewhere else and he is presently looking at his protege, the girl from UP now the head of the government housing regulatory body…a nobody.
2. Grace Poe is not that foolish to run as Binay’s vice.
3. Roxas approval rating will not be enough to overcome Binay’s heavy taint so my crystal ball does not have a clear view of the outcome of a Roxas vs. Binay one on one.
4. A Grace Poe-Mar Roxas tandem will be a sure winner.
5. My crystal ball has no clear view of the outcome in a three-way fight between Roxas, Poe, and Binay, except that Binay is going to lose if UNA and the NP does not coalesce.
A couple of places where I mildly disagree.
1) The girl from UP has three things going for her: (1) intelligent, (2) feisty, and (3) attractive. Her lack of experience is of little impact given Binay’s seniority and tutelage. She is better than Dan Quayle, for sure. She’ll never get a better chance to reach the national stage, so there is an upside for her.
3) I think there are things moving in Roxas’ favor. The sterling police work for Pope Francis, his humanity in dealing with the SAF family, his good works at raising the nation’s disaster preparation . . .
4) Yes, but Mar won’t go for VP, I think. He is done with the concessions.
5) NP coalesce with UNA? Never happen. Santiago, Trillanes, Cayetano . . .
Feisty yes, feisty and fiercely loyal to Binay, and why not? The VP recommended her for her position as Pag-ibig President plus her husband’s relative is connected to the Boy Scout business under Senate investigation.
A perfect political tandem…The Patron and The Protege.
Yep. All in the family.
sorry for being dense but who is the girl from UP?
Pag-Ibig Fund president and chief executive officer Darlene Marie Berberabe.
http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/675688/binay-says-berberabe-could-be-his-running-mate
Thanks joe.
i disagree.. Cmon people.. Roxas does not have the masa votes.. Only person that can pull these votes AWAY from Binay is POE.. Again, Roxas has no masa appeal. period.
POE.. The one that gets these votes wins it! Simple!
*******
WHY GRACE SHOULD RUN FOR PRESIDENT IN 2016
1. Grace is the only one who can beat Binay.
1.1. She topped the senatorial elections, handily beating front-runner Legarda and a Binay.
1.2. She will win in Ilocandia because of her rumoured parentage.
1.2.1. While Nancy beat her in Cagayan, Enrile the kingmaker is a spent force and languishing in detention.
1.2.2. While Loren beat her in CAR and Western Visayas, the winning margins were miniscule.
1.3. She will win in the rest of Luzviminda because her foster parents were cinematic royalty, her dad Da King. She is a princess.
2. Grace will go from strength to strength.
2.1. Unlike Cory. Grace is not a political neophyte.
2.2. Unlike Miriam, she is cool and collected.
2.3. Unlike Loren, she has not suffered a political loss and her reputation is unblemished.
2.4. Unlike Nancy, she is considered attractive, a meztiza.
2.5. Unlike Gloria, she is above 5-feet tall and unlikely to compensate by stealing the presidency and the public treasury.
2.6. Unlike Bongbong, she has a Bachelors degree in Political Science from Boston College.
3. Grace has the vigor of youth to serve as president.
3.1. Binay will be a doddering old man in 2016.
3.2. In contrast, Grace will only be 48 in 2016.
3.3. The country needs young blood to lead it.
3.4. Remember JFK and Camelot? Grace will be the modern Princess Urduja.
3.5. She will still be young after she serves a full 6-year term. She won’t be as cantankerous as FVR.
*****
You obviously have lost all respect for Sal. Who is going to back her? What party? Poe/Cayetano for NP? LP instead of Roxas?
1.1 If I read the discussion threads right, she has lost a lot of admiration in the social class.
3.5 She is cantankerous already, if your name is Purisima. She took his skipping her hearing personally and has been angry ever since. The flip side of cantankerous is her coddling of Binay, the island of impunity she insists on inhabiting. If she does not speak out, she will get carved up as an “old” politician, no matter her youth in years.
*******
If Mar continues to be seen as a loser, it is not far-fetched that the party might support Grace. The surveys will have a part to play in the lead-up to the election.
True, she may have lost some support, but to many she still looks more attractive than either Binay (too corrupt) or Mar (too weak).
Being a trapo is not necessarily seen as a negative.
Again, politics is all about perception.
*****
*******
Also, the discussion threads are not a reliable indicator of popular will.
*****
Mar is the guy who protected the Pope, man, and brought the Philippines the Business Processing Outsourcing business. He is a hero but his disguise is too good. Mar is the man responsible for Makati’s success more than Binay. See that new Manila skyline? Man, that’s Mar’s work!!! Poe? She’s given the Philippines movie and television ratings.
This is the short take on your mar article right?
Yes, in the blogging profession we call it a “teaser”. 🙂
Great! Some people still give credit to Gloria for the BPO success. I do know it was Mar, serving as the DTI Secretary that time. And Manila’s Skyline? I look forward to your elaboration.
Actually, Roxas was involved in bringing BPO clients to Manila before he went to work for Arroyo. He was at it when he was in investment banking, bridging between Manila and New York. He continued the work as DTI secretary.
Makes sense. I’m from the BPO sector and I can tell you most of us here do not know this. Not even our big bosses who’ve been in the industry for many years. When I tell my colleagues about Mar’s “little” role, they get surprised, they don’t have the slightest idea. I’m still in the discerning stage on who to vote this coming election but I feel strongly grateful to Mar because the BPO industry has given me (and a million others) so much.
Yes, Mar Roxas ought to appeal to the BPO industry to vote for him, that’s about a million votes, plus whatever family members they can round up. One of the things I think about him is that he is so busy working, he doesn’t do any politicking. So the political players take advantage of that. I hope he works as hard at campaigning – assuming he is LP’s bet – as he does at working. Maybe open some eyes.
I agree with you. Mar would never win, that is the fact. If Grace runs, there is a possibility she will win.
*******
Thanks, Felix.
Please see my response to Tol below. In addition, the LP will not support Grace for the presidency. She might still be drafted as the VP candidate… if there is an offer and if she is willing to accept.
*****
Poe is the best option to beat Binay. Roxas is good but low in ratings. Scary is Binay wins
*******
Tol, thanks. My post was written in early March, partly with tongue-in-cheek… as I was playing devil’s advocate. It is healthy to be skeptical. And a lot has happened since then.
All the items — except the main points in 1 and 2 — are true.
Re item 1: In early March, Binay was still leading the surveys. Since then he has been going down hill. It is true that Grace now tops the surveys, but Binay’s numbers will continue to fall. It would be fair to say now that anybody can beat Binay.
Re item 2: Grace has NOT gone from strength to strength. There are doubts, legal doubts, about her citizenship and residency, and some no longer see her as lily-white because of her association with certain people.
My feeling is she will NOT stand as a candidate for the presidency in this election.
I agree a Binay win is scary.
*****
10 months to election, lots can happen
Election run off. I know it needs charter change, but would that solve the scenario where Lacson ruined the chances of FPJ?
You mean the two top candidates that remain compete for the entire vote once again?
That is much better anyway, because then you have a President with the real vote of a majority of the people and therefore more buy-in.
I could dream,but very doable if we want it to happen. My suggestion was shot down, when i mentioned it to a congressman, he told me,no way because that would need charter change. I said ok sir,let us continue with our lunch.
Conceptually, I agree, that would be better. But practically, it is not going to happen in 2016. Incidentally, I was surprised when I learned that President Aquino won with only 42% of the votes. So 58% of the voting public has been working for five years to prove they were not wrong by running down the president, with the exception of a few open minded people.
In a run-off, Mar will definitely win.
Yes, that is true, isn’t it? The problem is the splitting of the votes among too many candidates.
One thing I do see is that Grace Poe may speculate on raiding both Mar’s and Binay’s voting base. In fact her common origins and possible Marcos heritage could appeal to some of the latter who will never vote for someone like Mar and will not care about her being trapo or unprincipled.
That is the crowd that thinks: hey they are all corrupt anyway and all go for their own interests, but as long as something trickles down to us fine. Better someone we somehow understand than someone who will modernize but only for their own business, leaving us just as poor or poorer.
The choices are between the devil and the deep blue sea:
1) Mar will of course continue Daang Matuwid. His clientele do not need to be corrupt, they have their businesses already or serve them. They are the old elite and old upper middle class that monopolize knowledge – which is power – over the tools of the modern world, keeping others out.
Mar may be a modernizer, he may give more people access to the modern world, or he may do everything to keep the monopoly of power in the hands of those that have it – nominally modern.
More business opportunities for Makati people, little for outsiders, unless I am mistaken.
2) Grace Poe can be anything, I think she will do what is necessary to get into power. Same ruthlessness and same instincts as her probable biological father. Her witch hunt went straight for the jugular of the Aquino government. She will do what is necessary for her. In any respect.
3) Binay I don’t know how strong he really is and how stable his base. A guy who is popular with “street people” because he is one of them and they will rather trust a gangster who is perceived as “one of their own” than the “Makati people”. Just like Makati people distrust street people.
Grace Poe is not revealing her cards because she does not want to alienate any potential voters. She will if she wins do what is necessary, harnessing businessmen, technocrats and gangsters. She might be Gloria without the corruption, Marcos without a dictatorship – she could be either the best of several worlds or the worst of several worlds, it is hard to know. If we want to hasten the Tipping Point of the Philippines becoming a modern country with real opportunities at all levels, then we have risks connected with all three candidates mentioned here:
a) Mar could strengthen the monopoly the Ateneo/Makati business crowd has on power. Daang Matuwid but the business stays in the hands of the few with hardly any opportunities for the many. Modern Philippines on the outside but feudal on the inside.
b) Poe would most probably take a technocratic approach, similar to Gloria and her possible father. More business for those that take part in HER system, bad business for some in Makati. Could open up opportunities for some not yet among the top dogs.
c) Binay would take the gangster approach – Marcos was part technocratic and part gangster – and reward those who are on his gang with benefits. Opens up opportunities for the wrong people, Poe would at least give SOME right people opportunities.
Of course Cayetano is not ready – or will never be. There is no perfect president, but given the direction I personally would like the Philippines to go to, I see the following:
A) If Joe can convince me that Mar will open up opportunities for many people and not just be nice to them – which might be difficult considering the crowd behind him, I will be for Mar.
B) If Poe can convince me that she will rein in the greed of the corrupt into legit business and therefore progress – maybe through an amnesty and then harsh punishment for any wrongdoing afterward – I will be for her.
So it is up to Poe and Joe.
I’ll be doing a piece on Roxas next Sunday. I’m trudging through his deeds. I think a lot depends on who his campaign manager is. If it is the same guy who was trying to get him visibility in photo shoots, he’ll bomb. If it is somebody who can package his BPO work, policing for the Pope and storm preparation/relief work as a guy who will build a better Philippines, then he can control his own message in the same way that Poe will try to do. Indeed, Binay could end up getting attacked by both and tank big time.
You see Poe’s silence on Binay and corruption as purposeful plotting. I see it as bowing to people socially stronger than her. If she proves I’m wrong, then I agree she could be a very strong candidate. It really is up to Poe. I would imagine it depends on who will be her money and political backers.
Thanks for the superb analysis.
” I’m trudging through his deeds.” What has he done so far to encourage the growth of small businesses, level the playing field to allow for more wealth creation? BPO is benefitting his crowd, the Makati crowd and those employed by them only.
“You see Poe’s silence on Binay and corruption as purposeful plotting. I see it as bowing to people socially stronger than her. If she proves I’m wrong, then I agree she could be a very strong candidate.” I actually mean the same in my point B) Rein in the greed of the gangsters and channel it into legitimate business like Lee Kuan Yew did to Singapore, which was VERY corrupt before. She might be able to actually get them to, being sly.
Meaning: both Mar and Poe would have to betray their own in small ways to be good.
BPO industry supports transportation workers, construction workers (condos), food/necessity sales, and mall workers. The 1 million workers are a huge percentage of Manila’s growth pains, too. And they are the hope of a rational Philippines.
The big guys benefit from any growth industries in the Philippines because of the structural concentration of wealth. Hard to lay that on Mar Roxas. The BPO industry is a huge deal.
Poe, I agree with the sly, but don’t see the force behind it. I’m happy to be proved wrong.
“The big guys benefit from any growth industries in the Philippines because of the structural concentration of wealth. Hard to lay that on Mar Roxas.”
To be able to level the playing field, the chance is now. Help promote the growth of small- and medium-scale industries all over the country. Thereby make the growth sustainable.
BPO only will work for a short term, when that party has passed, the country will actually be worse off than before if nothing is done to establish alternatives. Just my opinion.
Develop industrial parks, subsidize technological research, strengthen nationwide infrastrure and regional centers. So that wealth is not only in Manila with a few.
Anyway, from your answer it seems Roxas has not done much in the direction I am pointing at and probably will not. Unless of course he surprises, like Poe may.
I’ll look into what he did as Trade secretary under Arroyo, and as legislator. See if he sponsored any small business initiatives. Bam Aquino seems to be the lead guy on that these days. He broke down the Manila port monopoly and is working on “business competitiveness” legislation, which is a positive way to say anti-trust, and ease of doing business.
Eagerly put patiently awaiting your article on Mar Roxas and his work…
I agree that a VP run would be the best career move for Poe: she’s close to being a sure VP winner no matter who wins as President, and would be well positioned to succeed whoever wins.
Roxas has a problem I think you overlook, which is the prevalence of identity politics. Binay plays that game well, and Poe can pull in points from her father’s side. Roxas has a very hard time portraying himself with as someone the masses can identify with and someone that seems in any way like them. That means a great deal… maybe more than it should mean. In a perfect world candidates would be evaluated only or at least primarily in performance, but what should be and what is are often a long way apart.
Very strong point. By my thinking, Poe as VP gives Roxas the identity political spin, onto which he lays his solid work for good governance. It’s why no one else really works as his VP. They don’t bring that. But Poe has to see that as a better strategic move than running herself, or tying in with the (disgraced) Binay.
She might decide not to be a candidate at all, who knows. Let all the boys waste their energy and then move in similar to what Angela Merkel did. Actually she is young enough to just stay in the Senate and wait till 2022, why not just watch and wait?
And have to put up with Nancy and Miriam and Marcos on your committees? No way!!! (Actually, she might. That is an option.)
That would be a factor if people voted for a ticket as a unit, but they often don’t here. Binay didn’t run with Aquino, GMA didn’t run with Estrada. Poe’s identity appeal will help Poe, I don’t know how much it will help Roxas.
Then she should be neutralized as a Presidential or VP candidate. I like Joe’s idea of an NP-LP alliance + Poe. Offer Cayetano DOJ, Poe DILG to have them as strong workhorses.
Trillanes as VP running mate of Mar as part of the NP-LP deal. Why not?
Cue ringing phone. Manny Villar rushes into the room to answer it.
“Manny here.”
“Hello, Manny. Noy here.”
“Yes, Mr. President. What can I do for you today?”
“Can you swing by the Palace sometime this next week?”
“You interested in buying one of my Camella homes?”
“Ha ha, no, not quite. Better than that. I want to build the government for 2016.”
“What time tomorrow works best for you?”
Trillanes makes sense. He could be Mar’s quiet but efficient attack dog in many situations. You can’t have perfect people, but you can put a team together in a complementary way.
Don’t forget that Roxas was elected as the number 1 Senator in 2004 with 19 million votes and the highest ever garnered by a national candidate in any Philippine election. In 2010 he (lost???) to Binay by the narrowest margin so far. As Mr. Palengke, he was popular with the masses, hence the 19M votes. If there were no cheating in 2010, he could have won as vp.
In my opinion, it was the public conditioning (thru paid surveys) of the Binay camp that floated the idea that Roxas would be a weak candidate.
I think we are discounting the fact that we don’t know where the corrupt Philippine media stands on Grace Poe. Think Manny Villar. There is a certain vitriol reserved only for the people who aspire to the highest elected post in our country. Noynoy had his Abnoy blackops, Binay has the mistress. I can imagine a big media campaign that is primarily about where were you Grace? When Da King needed you by his side where were you? When your adoptive father needed people who he can trust why were you sipping margaritas in the US? If the media can build a chasm between the dead king and her adoptive daughter I think that is worth a few points against Grace.
Have you considered political strategy as a profession?
🙂
@giancarloangulo
Political operators of Grace Poe could debunk this charge by saying that she was not called upon by his The King because he knows he has the masses’ votes anyway and would surely win. But when The King died and was apparently cheated on by GMA, she immediately stopped working in the US and leave for the Philippines to continue the fight her father started.
I’d go with the mysterious biological father angle, it’s hard to debunk unless she wants to do a DNA testing.
If she thinks a president should micromanage, she will be prone to do the same. She will have a rude awakening,soon enough.that is if she runs and wins.
I don’t know if she really thinks that – she might just have been playing politics, the expectation by many Filipinos being Presidential Micro-Management. So instead of MBO or MBWA you have PMM as a methodology, if one is to give it a name.
I remember when I was the head of a Filipino overseas association. I organized everything for a party: hall, municipal permits, music etc. – then my own VP and his group criticized me in the review meeting for not doing much during clean-up. The reason was I was tired because I prepared everything. Also I delegated some stuff to my VP and he completely changed the sense of what was agreed on last-minute – “bakit sa akin mo naman binigay!”
In the meeting I was fed up and told them “sige sa susunod kayo ang mag-organize, ako ang maglilinis mag-isa” which was not nice either but understandable. People in the Philippines expect hands-on in the wrong way – micromanagement and doing everything.
Mar directing traffic in Tacloban was for show, but if the people expect it? Governor Joey Salceda of Albay does it like a real manager, coming from a banking background – he delegates, he motivates and checks on progress by regularly going across his province.
The question is – how does she manage in her actual work? What are her achievements when it comes to that, not the political show she put up. Anyone can fill in on this to give a better picture of who she really is?
Remember the MRT challenge. Poe versus Abaya.She rode it during rush hour no body guards and Abaya rode at around noon time complete with bodyguards.How do picture her then? As a show off, or opportunist, or someone with very good intentions?
Thanks for reminding. In that case she showed real hands-on, the way it should be.
If she did it anonymously without reporters, to get a feel how it really is to help her decide, even better. Great kings travelled their countries incognito to understand the people
it was in the news, but to be fair maybe she did not ask them(reporters) to tag along, but yeah, it was a good way how to understand the people?
roxas-poe :they campaign by riding the MRT together going direct to Farmers Market and there you have it: Ms MRT and MR Palengke, then they ride the pedi cab with Mar driving ,because Grace would not want to take chances on a motorbike, so pedi cab na lang, then Mar would try again his traffic management skills, this time with Grace by his side.
……..as a wiseman once said:
“Great kings travelled their countries incognito to understand the people”
The PRMAN said: “What incognito?, that’s a no no for PR.”
Kings had the advantage that they do not need to get elected.
Yeah,correct ka dyan.
One thing is sure. For reason of self preservation, President Noynoy will surely go for someone who can be a sure winner. As things look now, neither Roxas nor Binay can be considered sure winner. As Joe said, Roxas can be deodorized, but still that would not make him a sure winner for sure. and any deodorant will not work on Binay, IMO. In a fair/clean election fight I don’t think the president will make a gamble. My bottom dollar goes to whoever the president chooses…a sure winner.
I don’t like Mar at all, but having him run with Grace as VP would be a lesser evil. Mar’s incompetent, but maybe he’ll change if he becomes president? At least he isn’t corrupt. Would rather have him (or Poe) over Binay or Duterte.
What specifically leads you to believe Roxas is incompetent? Maybe I can incorporate that in the blog I’m writing.
Travel around the Philippines, see the relatively new and improved airports/ports. Those were started/planned during Mar’s short stint in the DOTC. What we get in the media is the MRT3 controversy/LTO controversy that is actually rooted in the onerous one sided contracts that were signed during the FVR/GMA times.
When I was in UP the reds were saying that GMA added the most to the Government Debt. What they failed to state was GMA was doing bond swaps/ bond exchanges. She was exchanging 18% debt with 16% then with 14% if memory serves me right she even went to as low as 12%. This kind of manipulation is what we have to guard against. We never hear of the ports/airports that were improved during PNoy’s admin and Mar’s time in DOTC but we get to hear of the MRT3 and the like.
When we see Yolanda we do not hear of how much preparation against disasters Robredo/Roxas initiated years before the Yolanda superstorm.
In modern sports there is a concept of process over results. What our media/analysts lack here is a view of the process. This is why the senate mamasampano hearings sounded like a witch hunt. People viewed the results and were vaguely checking the process which I believe is more important.
Sorry for the mish mash of stuff. Having a mild headache.
Take two aspirins or two beers and one nap.
The mish mash is interesting because I believe Roxas does have a package to sell, but putting it together will require a pro. For example, the massive, elegant, professional work done to secure the Pope. That should be credited to Roxas. And the significant improvements in storm readiness. And the Manila skyline. So I think you are correct. People are seeing what HAS BEEN shown by a shallow media, not WHAT COULD BE SHOWN by a strong campaign. I also like some of Roxas’ quotes. Like his put down of Nancy Binay in the senate when she challenged his character, and his poke back at Binay when he said Roxas being out of the loop on Masapano was a reflection of Roxas’ mamagement ability. Just because he has been busy diligently working does not mean that in campaign mode he will be wandering around with nothing to say.
The prospect of a presidential pardon for any of Sen. Poe’s friends (who may land in jail if found guilty in the PDAF scam) is a huge deterrent to my voting for her for any elective position in election of 2016.
The video (or was it a photo published on the front page of the Inquirer) of Sen Grace Poe (taken during one of the early hearings on the PDAF) stretching her body length from the ground level of the Senate floor up towards the gallery to give Sen Jinggoy a hug, spoke a thousand words. I could almost sense from a thousand miles away, the reassurance given to Sen Jinggoy that he had nothing to worry about when the questioning of witnesses comes around . Sure enough, when it was Sen. Grace’s turn to question Dennis Cunanan (one of the witnesses against Sen. Jinggoy) she went after Cunanan with witchlike tenacity until she was able to insinuate doubt on his credibility by dragging in Cunanan’s brother’s expensive house being used by Dennis.
The other concerns that bother me are the kind of people she would appoint to cabinet positions. Most likely users and abusers of presidential powers and incompetents. As scary as a Binay presidency. Heaven forbid.
Speculations but highly probable. Comparison to Binay is a bit a stretch.
Ah, you have taken my point and sharpened it. Very good.
What about the photo of Sen. Grace and Ongpin during Sen. Chiz’ wedding? I think it speaks a lot also….
Yes it does. It’s what led me to see her as not different than the established trapo, but a part of the culture of impunity. I think the rebels in the senate now (the people who are working for laws and not friends) are mainly Bam Aquino, and Sonny Angara on good days. I don’t know if Cayetano is a rebel or not. Possibly not. Senator Poe is a huge question mark, as to what she is about.
I have a different view of the topic.
On her running for president:
1. She’s a friend to both Binay and Mar camps. Hence, regardless of whoever wins, Mar or Jojo, either way she will be a spoiler once she decides to run. She will not do it.
2. And her running is not an assurance for a Binay win because, like Mar, she will also get masa vote from Jojo. The number of masa votes she will corral from Binay combined with the number of masa votes Mar will get could hurt Jojo in the end.
3. In the case of Mar, with Poe running, it will be a three ring circus that his camp want to avoid if possible. I have no idea of the influence or impact of women and youth votes but I would tend to believe that these sectors will go heavy for Mar if there is no Poe in the equation.
4. In a three-way fight, she will not win and she knew it. With heavyweights Mar and Jojo jockeying she don’t stand a chance. And worse, she will get all the blame for the result regardless of who wins.
On her running for vice-president:
1. If Grace Poe runs as VP to Mar Roxas, we’re going to have a pres. and vice-pres. from the same ticket. It’s a Dream Team never before seen in national politics. The only question is if whether or not she is willing to do a Mar Roxas move by giving way to Mar.
2. If she runs with the devil, este, Binay, most likely she will win and even assure Jojo Binay’s clear passage to Malacanang. The Binay-Poe combination would be the representation of Erap and FPJ team. Formidable. The only question is, if whether or not she is willing to do a Jojo Binay move by going second fiddle to him like what he did with Erap.
3. Even on this category, she will think twice about running because she will greatly affect and change the outcome of the election.
Bottom line, I don’t see her running for either pres. or vice-pres. I’m looking at her preparing for 2022, though.
Very very interesting analysis, jameboy. I found no points to object to at all . . .
Thanks for the insights.
You have elaborated my instinctive feeling, shortly mentioned in a post above to Joe.
She is cunning and ruthless like her possible biological father and might do it that way.
Sterling Seagrave and Primitivo Mijares both wrote about Makoy, it would be much like him.
As I reflect more on this, I wonder if sitting in the Senate for six years will really get Grace Poe what she needs, which is executive experience within government. If I were her (I’m not, in case no one noticed), I’d say to Mar Roxas, “Okay, I will run side by side with you, but only on condition that I receive the DILG secretarial position as a member of your cabinet.” DILG is the perfect slot for the future president. Engaged in major events beside the president, close to the LGU heads, visible. It is rather as Clinton was to Obama as Secretary of State.
Sitting in the senate for too long and a person becomes like Senator Santiago, all smoke, no fire. All sizzle, no steak.
“Sitting in the senate for too long and a person becomes like Senator Santiago, all smoke, no fire. All sizzle, no steak.” Cayetano has enough meat on him to become a good steak.
Still too rare at the moment though, he still needs some cooking.
2022 he will be medium rare.
His lack of public traction is because people view him as an overblown attorney. Other than Taguig City, he is not recognized as a leader. What a difference it would be if he had six years in a meaningful Executive assignment where he could prove he is not just another noisy lawyer. But he does not seem to have the temperament for that. All hat, no cowboy, six-shooter mouth.
At lease President Aquino had his mother and father standing in as testimony to his character.
(I like Cayetano actually, but I need to characterize how most likely see him. And he was over the top on the BBL, which, I think, as people moderate their panic and grief and anger, does not represent him well.)
Come to think of it, NP is rather out of government, other than legislative seats. If I were Manny Villar, I’d figure 2016 is a way to get my party into government in 2022. Thus, I’d negotiate to back LP if “my people” get cabinet slots. Rather the same way Poe could play it. Face it, LP needs support and is in a position to give something up to get it. Binay is not the only guy who can play power politics.
The old coalition between compradors and patriots, between the spiritual descendants of Filipino-Chinese and Filipino-Spanish subcultures. Against the very corrupt Raja Binay.
The datus and rajas will find their way to the top eventually because the street likes them, but they still have some modernizing to do, they would ruin everything at the moment. The patriots are waning and should gracefully realize that the times that bred them are over.
“Executive assignment where he could prove he is not just another noisy lawyer. But he does not seem to have the temperament for that. ” He could be good if he learns patience and perseverance to temper his brilliance. REAL hard work could be the way for him.
“At lease President Aquino had his mother and father standing in as testimony to his character.” Cayetano’s father was a brilliant Senator, but similar to the great Claro M. Recto in terms of being more on top rhetoric than in actual work done.
Most interesting. Then it would seem fairly clear as to what Senator Cayetano needs to do to break out for a 2022 run. The mind boggles at the hypotheticals, Cayetano as DOJ head, De Lima to Foreign Affairs.
NP would have to overcome the baser instincts that all Filipino factions have.
If you ask me, the convenient strategy would be to let Mar, Poe or Binay fail then use it to grab power. Hope they think more of the nation this time than of themselves.
The next question would be should we trust her in the DILG? For me I’d take a disastrous DILG stint to a disastrous 6 year stint in the top job.
Good proposal. With her slyness she can handle the Moros. Cayetano as DOJ head to clean up energetically, not DILG, he would clash with the Moros all the time.
@Jameboy, if Grace reads your comment -she will probably run for VP. I’m just curious why you don’t see her running for either President or VP, when you stated that a Mar-Poe is a dream team.
The answer to your question is all there in my post.
I am disappointed with Poe for keeping mum about her corrupt friends like Binay, Estrada, etc. She may not continue Daang Matuwid if and when elected as president. i could see that her administration will be, “friends trump country”.
That is it exactly. She is “old school” politics in a fresh face. Culture of impunity. Friends over country.
And Mar is IMHO old school “comprador” politics with a fresh face. So you have the old Filipino conflict between the comprador and the bandit cum datu cultures all over again, with their origins in Filipino-Chinese, Filipino Latin patriot/bandido and native subcultures.
I make no secret that the latter of the two is closer to my personal and clan experience. The thing is, how can one harness the best of all three subcultures. The comprador culture is good for globalization, definitely. The patriot/bandit subculture is good for keeping the worst parts of globalization at bay. The native subculture has a certain sly cleverness to it, the cleverness and strength of underdogs. How to find a synthesis?
Malaysia found a way to harness Malay slyness, Chinese business attitude and Tamil industry/cleverness to a common purpose very succesfully inspite of traditional conflicts. Synthesis is finding the best from all and putting it together while minimizing the negative. Estrada synthesized bandido and datu subcultures. Marcos synthesized comprador and patriot/bandido subcultures, Gloria as well.
Cayetano tries to synthesize comprador and patriot subcultures – a new generation, Grace Poe tries to synthesize comprador and datu subcultures with a small dose of bandido subculture without the outdated patriotism, a new generation on its way to a synthesis of all three subcultures, on their way to a truly modern Philippines. My vision of a modern Philippines is with a comprador culture plus elements of gentrified and civilized patriot/bandido and datu subculture.
The model favored by Joe is more like Singapore, with the comprador subculture lording over it all, obviously that model is more palatable to Americans who are all at heart businessmen cum missionaries, sometimes with a little bit of cowboy thrown in. But that may not work in the long run, the patriot/bandido subculture which is steadily losing it’s grip over power is increasingly allying with the underdog datu subculture, Cayetano being the only one who tries to be patriot and comprador like the Ayalas.
Duterte is a Christian datu with a bandido/patriot touch who harnesses the compradors and the tribal and Muslim datus in a pragmatic manner in Davao. Governor Joey Salceda of Albay is a gentrified patriot/bandido cum datu who has learned comprador skills, having been a bank manager before. The really smart guys know their limits and stay in the local arena where they know the game and can handle all the players with aplomb.
The national arena is very tough to handle, the compradors rule in Makati, the patriot/bandidos are strong in military, police and state apparatus, even though the Northerners (Ilocanos and Igorots) came in as a totally new force due to Marcos. Datus like Binay have concentrated on public services, come on he was in waste management, a euphemism for Mafia in Tony Soprano’s New Jersey, he is an underdog who has become a dangerous top dog. A calculating witch/bitch like Grace Poe might be able to handle all of them – bandido/patriots like Erap and datus like Binay – harness and civilize them. Mar would not be able to do that, compradors are civilized but he might be too civilized for those forces. Noynoy also was, he handled it well considering the challenges. Abangan…
Danding Cojuanco = comprador + bandit. Chavit Singson = bandit + datu. Jesse Robredo = gentle patriot and caring datu with a very slight touch of comprador. My newly developed and synthesized model can classify nearly any Filipino leader. And analyze all the politics.
Noynoy is patriot plus comprador, natural enemy of bandits and datus. Cost him a lot of energy to handle both groups. Still hasn’t jailed the datu just under him – Binay, he is smart enough to know the cost of doing THAT.
Ramos = Ilocano, patriot and military datu with enough professionalism to understand and harness compradors like he did in the 90s. Over the hill and a bit crazy now, unfortunately.
Ilocanos moreover have a natural orderliness and an inherent economic common sense.
Mar is comprador, but hopefully he manages to find some of the patriot/bandit and datu traits his grandfather President Manuel Roxas had. In a gentrified, civilized way to lead both groups into a better future and finally unite the country to a common purpose.
Then he will be the best president since Ramos and Magsaysay. Maybe he could harness Poe to do the job of knocking heads for him. They COULD be a dream team then.
I have come to the same conclusion as Joe via my model and analysis: Mar/Poe would be a dream team to continue the direction the Philippine barangay (tribal ship) has taken under Noynoy, even correct the course to lead to a better future.
Whether the future looks more like Singapore, like Malaysia or like Indonesia is up to them. But they are the best choice considering all other options.
Together they can unite and tame all three aspects of Filipino culture – comprador, bandit and datu – with a strong modern comprador focus and using the tamed aspects of bandit and datu culture as added strength. You have to use what you have to succeed.
Best analysis ever, but how to translate to explain the voters what their choices are?
Most of that will work subliminally. The Filipino is very subliminal in his choices.
The scenario catalyzed by Joe, Steve and giancarloangulo and synthesized by me is:
– NP+LP+Poe alliance
– Mar for President (comprador crowd, sell him as the gentle datu Joe already described)
– Trillanes for VP (patriot with datu and civilized bandit aspects that will appeal to many)
– Cayetano as head of DOJ
– Poe as head of DILG
Hire good PR people to subliminally emphasize the aspects I have analyzed to the crowd.
I hope Grace Poe will read this blog and will come to her senses. If she does come to her senses and run as VP for Roxas … then wow, the future of the Philippines will be like if not better than PNoy`s Presidency.
and the thieves and the thugs that are already in prison will continue to be in prison and hopefully more will be added.
Very well said, ella. A bit more of that excellent analysis of yours I think I’m beginning to be convinced. I’m not a fan of Roxas, but with that kind of logical take, how can I resist?
kindly elucidate on comprador. I don’t feel like googling, because you say it best.
Comprador means businessman. In colonial Philippine history they were first the Chinese then the Chinese mestizos, in today’s Philippines they are mostly in Makati. Not all Chinese anymore but in spirit the descendants of these. Local politicians like Aguinaldo are often a mixture of comprador and patriot/bandit, Aguinaldo was part Chinese. Rizal was a mixture of comprador (Mercado was his original surname and he had Chinese blood) and patriot without any bandit in him. Bonifacio was a patriot/bandit cum datu with some Latin blood, his Katipunan was founded in Tondo after all, he as warehouse head for a German company certainly had access to smuggling and Katipunan used factories in Tondo to produce arms after hours. Antonio Luna was an intellectual patriot/bandit with comprador wealth and definite Latin and Ilocano blood. Allegedly Aguinaldo had both Boni and Luna killed, part of the old power struggle between compradors and patriot/bandits plus datus.
NP: mostly patriots without bandits. Cayetano = modern patriot + comprador. Santiago = crazy parrot patriot and intellectual. Trillanes – highly functioning military datu + patriot with civilized aspects of a bandit.
UNA: mostly datus. Binay = datu and bandit. Estrada = patriot/bandit turned into a datu.
LP: mostly compradors. Noynoy = heavily traumatized patriot+comprador. Mar = comprador with possible potential as a gentle datu and patriot, his grandpa aspects of that plus bandit.
Compradors, patriot/bandits and datus are the spiritual descendants of Filipino-Chinese, Filipino-Spanish and native subcultures that have struggled for power several centuries. You are I think a patriot with a bandit streak who learned from the compradors – your MBA.
I am a patriot with partially tamed bandit and datu aspects who learned from the compradors since I went abroad. In todays world josephivo described you need their skills.
Kaalaman ng comprador, pasyon ng patriota at pagkatuso ng mga datu – iyong ang tanging kombinasyon na kailangan ng sambayanan para maging matatag and mayaman sa globalisadong mundo. Iyon ang maari nating maging kinabukasan.
you never disappoint, so I will partially tame the bandido in me. will do it like Antonio Banderas from Zorro to the Mambo King. Salud!
Tame the bandit, but keep the spirit alive. It is good to have it, I know being a sili-eating Bikolano. But in today’s businesslike world, the best and sharpest weapon is the mind.
As a sili-eating Bikolano, how will you compartmentalize Leni Robredo, the wife of Jesse Robredo = gentle patriot and caring datu with a very slight touch of comprador.
There’s a ripplefor her to seek the Presidency or even just as VP to perhaps Mar Roxas? Why do you keep on focusing on Grace Poe? Leni Robredo is a congresswoman but before that, she was a lawyer working for the PAO (lawyering for the poor and the needy).
Leni Robredo might be good. Similar to the late Jesse Robredo in terms of classification. Not yet one of the big players though.
Plus in the ethnic politics of the Philippines, Bikolanos never had a chance for President, don’t think there was even a VP at any time. My scenario of Mar-Trillanes running together is ethnically more sound. Bisaya plus Tagalog. Bisaya + Bikol does not cover enough.
The late Sen Raul Roco comes to mind.
Leni Robredo, as a newbie, even with the death of Jesse, dismantled the Villafuerte dynasty. She handily won over Nelly Villafuerte, the matriarch of the Villafuerte clan. True, there had been no Bikolano who became a President or a VP but we would have had the best President for the Philippines in Raul Roco if he did not pass away. We have senators from there like Honasan & Escudero.
And also one of the richest woman in the world, Loida Nicolas Lewis from Bicol.
@ chit navarro
If I may add, Madam Lewis & children would be a most intriguing family. 🙂
Wiki could never crafted that insightful view, for sure, so thanks for requesting enlightenment. We got it.
Yes Joe, we got it . We need not go very far.
Wonderful characterization of the main parties and the players.
You, Karl Garcia and sonny being platinum catalysts I must give credit to.
Definitely not me, PiE. I’m marrried to one. However that counts. 🙂
A Platinum credit card with unlimited credit would also be nice.
Binay is a modern-day version of the corrupt, devious Raja Humabon of Sugbu.
His datus are those whom he buys with his nationwide patronage system.
How about Duterte?
I already wrote it above: a Christian datu cum bandit with some patriotism and a pragmatic approach to compradors, controlling the them and the datus under him like a modern-day rajah of Davao. More of a local patriot than a national one.
Similar in spirit to Raja Mangubat in the Amaya teleserye.
For now, Duterte seems counterintuitive because of the press he is painted to be. From this distance, even just juxtaposing these: he is a lawyer by choice, maintaining a modicum of success in keeping out the “barbarians” at his gate, I see him as a dark horse for the presidency now and kingmaker in the future. Consider this too: Davao has many things going for it: almost 1.5 million citizens, 182 barangays, the largest (in area, read – natural potential) city of the country, thriving hub of commerce, trade, industry; to all appearances, an extremely viable manpower training center, i.e. these are no small constituencies. I wouldn’t be surprised if the young Sen Aquino chooses to synergize with this kind of dynamic base, given his illustrious academic and family background (Aquino/Aguirre)!
@sonny
Sonny.
Allow me to relate Davao to this:
https://joeam.com/2015/02/26/when-will-the-philippines-reach-a-tipping-point/#comment-111374
When you say “Davao” and “182 barangays” I know you can only mean Davao City which is located in Davao del Sur.
http://j.mp/mun-12ds
i7sharp
Yes, i7sharp, just the city.
I see you’re using the same map from Nat Geographic Mag of 1986. That is the most useful map (front and back) of the Philippines. I wonder if Nat Geographic sells reprints. Worth whatever they are charging.
Grace Poe is an intelligent and educated trapo with pol sci degree. She is not the principled and independent woman we thought she is, embodying FPJ cinematic persona. Like most of us, she can’t just forget utang na loob, no matter her long U. S. residence and education.
It does seem that more people are seeing her that way.
Good job, Joe!
I really have serious doubts about Grace Poe’s sincerity in serving the people. I can’t quite put a finger on it but there is this nagging feeling in me when I read stuff about her.
She is interested in serving herself. Much like Angela Merkel whom I compared her to, except that Angie is held in check by a now matured German political system.
Having said that, Poe and Mar would complement each other as VP and President.
misspelled my mail address, that is why the color above is different. It’s still me…
In my model, Grace Poe is like a devious Rani in a wayang kulit play, like the ones described by Edgar Lores. With no purpose, except her own power play.
Thank you, Jose. I share your doubts, based on what I’ve seen . . . or not seen . . .
As an addendum to my last post, while I said that I don’t see Grace Poe running in 2016, I’m not discounting the possibility of an unexpected event that may change her mind and jump in the race.
Right now, based on a survey conducted in the last quarter of 2014, the three best leaders to succeed PNoy includes Poe alongside Binay and Roxas. That alone is proof that she’s with the pack leaders and it will be no surprise if she decides to make it official. However, that alone is not enough for her to forge ahead.
And while we’re at it let’s continue to gauge the three in terms of what they can offer or what they can bring to the Office of the President, just in case. I think we can honestly say that among the three, Binay has the advantage in terms of the executive experience for having managed Makati as mayor for a decade or two or more. And being vice-president he definitely gained more insights on the national complexity of the chief executive and commander in chief position. On the other hand, Roxas has the administrative savvy for serving in various administrative and Cabinet positions in the past administrations. That and his legislative experience in both the House and the Senate gives him the heads up to the entire machinery of governance and what it takes to run it smoothly.
And Poe? She had the charisma, the popularity and pedigree. But I think the charisma she has is not one like Erap’s. Her charisma, I think, does not transcend all social classes. It is confined within those of her parents’ circle or colleagues and admirers and of course the fans. The fact that Erap and Binay appears to be the men the masa would die for is proof that Poe has yet to seep in in the consciousness of the meek and the poor. At least not yet. The same with popularity. I would even dare say that her popularity is just like Noynoy’s. Both gets to be popular not because of themselves or their accomplishments but because of their parents legacy and influence. The only difference was Noynoy has years of legislative experience than her and the dramatic or timely exit (death) of Cory that enabled him to jump in front in the last few months of the election.
I don’t know If the death of Susan Roces will provoke the same sentiments she can capitalize on and beat everybody to the punch.
Binay’s executive experience seems to me to be how to game the system to gain power and wealth, and that seems like poor presidential credentials. Poe has the aura of Fernando but it is hard to say if that will stick when she comes under attack for coddling Binay and being a lightweight, as far as experience is concerned. The next few popularity surveys will be most interesting.
Binay’s executive experience seems to me to be how to game the system to gain power and wealth, and that seems like poor presidential credentials.
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I agree but the masa and the voting public in general don’t seem to care for that aspect. The Robin Hood-complex (steal from the rich and give to the poor) and the victim mentality is very much alive. Just look at Erap and Gloria Arroyo’s resurrection from ignominy. And that’s pretty dangerous if not entirely embarrassing. 🙂
True. I concede that point. There is a class divide in the Philippines, and the votes belong with the masa.
Now I have the teaser for my underdog article, and it’s main idea has germinated:
“Underdogs develop a lot of talents that make them stronger, but to put them to productive use, they have to overcome their sense of victimhood.” Example: Manny Villar.
Excellent, excellent.
I would like to believe that the voting masa has now matured and become wiser, especially those in the provinces. Mainly due to the influence of social media – with their families overseas and active in social media -facebook, internet, e-mail – the masa now can now have a better understanding of who is out there to serve or to steal.
The next Presidential election will be won through social media… and it will be the administration’s bet.
I hope so, I flood my FB account with short comments (long posts tend to drive them to early bedtimes) to encourage the youth, my cousins and my godchildren to read and share instead of jokes and quotations about love, courtship and foodies… even messaged them in PM, all I got is a very short “yes po”… haisst .. hope they wake up soon, before 2016, that is.
Help, I need fresh air, oxygen, new trees, not more of the eternal plastic bags you see all over recycled or not. We will not find new healthy trees in the smog of Manila.
Who are the progressive governors or Robredo type majors?
Governor Joey Sarte Salceda of Albay comes to mind – a former bank manager who applies goal-oriented management to his province. He will, being realistic and very home-bound, never leave the job he is doing extremely well now. With much heart.
@jameboy, with all the years of as Mayor of Makati, and etc … what he has mastered or he has become expert in being a thief … he learned to manipulate all the rules and laws in spending tax payers monies that he pocketed most of them.
ella,
I’m just reading the headlines, so to speak. Binay could have been guilty of those allegations but the problem is, they’re just that allegations. There have been investigations in the past and nothing came out of it. Of course it’s not proof of his innocence but he seems to always extricate himself from controversial situations and come up on top every time. His ability to wiggle himself out and present himself as victim of political vendetta could be the reason why he’s popular with the masa.
“His ability to wiggle himself out and present himself as victim of political vendetta could be the reason why he’s popular with the masa.” His attitude and his origins – and his features – make the masa think “he is one of us THEY are trying to keep down as always”.
Actually their is some grain of truth in that, even though I think HE actually deserves to be kept down, the undertone of some comments regarding Binay is not always that nice.
And the ‘underdog’ image as victim seems to be his modus operandi because that is how the masa think and feel. Exactly just like what Erap did.
Except that Erap was more bark than bite, if we are to stay with the dogs. Binay can bite.
For those of us who watched the early hearings on the Parking garage, it is not allegation. It was proved, bidding was rigged, prices paid by taxpayers were exorbitant (P32,000 for P8,000 toilet bowls), and reasons used to explain the high price were lies (green building, world class, special foundations). The filing before the ombudsman has gone off the front pages, possibly to return in a month or two in the form of official charges, and these matters for sure can’t be hidden once the campaign starts.
The desperation of the Binays is palpable.
Those who are for Binay will however see it this way: “everybody is corrupt, the Makati crowd just hides it better, unlike Binay they are well-dressed hypocrites”. Do not underestimate the power of groupthink and clearly defined enemies. “Damn Chinese, they cheat better than we do and then point their finger at us” is the exact phrase I once heard from a former Kabataang Barangay (Marcos youth) leader I met abroad.
As the Society’s Chief of Wildlife, I know the different species out there very well.
Before, VP Binay was able to wiggle out of his legal battles that’s why he has always challenged them to bring this to court because he has the money to pay. But now, his money and power were not enough to stop the arraignment of the wife in the reopening of the graft cases against her. She was arraigned very recently.
Now that the judges / justices/ etc. have seen that the executive branch can really flex its muscle to terminate them from service and forfeit their benefits, it is harder for him (VP Binay) to find a seller for his money. And now that the Ombudsman have started the ball rolling, do you think it will stop in his favour? He will be gone come election time.
I hope so, chit…Investigations done by the Ombudsman included the VP but later, he was excluded in the charges, is that because the VP can only be charged through impeachment and can only be tried in the Senate after that? He still has a lot of supporters in the HOR; election is just around the corner, will it prosper so “he will be gone come election time”… not so sure about the procedure in impeaching a VP, will CJ Sereno preside in the Senate trial, if and when, Speaker Belmonte do a Villar-like impeachment of the then President Estrada, or the “lightning” one done to the former CJ Corona (to preempt the status ante order from the SC like what they did for the impeachment attempts of former Ombudsman Gutierrez) to hasten the proceedings.
Mar is my man, but he needs a lot of help, more effort has to be done to expose the
a) corruption of Binay (and his Sandiganbayan-aided cover up) and
b) the silence of Poe regarding this VP and her fellow senators now detained for plunder.
The masa are not watching the Senate sub-committe hearings; they prefer Showtime, Eat Bulaga and telenovelas not to mention showbiz intrigues and scandals, even the Mamasapano supposedly “covert” operation now being openly analyzed in detail by the Senate, HOR and the tabloid media.
I’m missing this lively exchange of ideas, BIR deadlines are distracting me, so bear with me for my disorganized pondering, and here’s hoping no more typos.
Hahaha, paragraph three, you dropped the e on committee, but I had to use spell-check to find it.
Hurry up with that tax stuff. I wrote my check to the IRS in the USA, shipped it off via LBC five days ago and they cashed it already. Greedy money grubbers . . .
Be sure to catch Thursday’s blog. It is a rebuttal to my “Poe should not run” blog. I get nailed big time. 🙂
LOL.. I just hope our taxes will be used judiciously by our respective governments.
I found another – it should be “status quo ante” (or whatever Latin terms the SC, lawyers and doctors use)
I see one of my favorite commenters @ raissa blog has found your site, welcome here, NHerrera, so good to see your comments.
Will wait for that Poe rebuttal, by edgar lores?… My mind is “almost” made up. Mar is my man. It will take a convincing rebuttal to change my mind… unless another event will occur which will usher in another winnable, worthy one.
Thought your vindictive justice blog refer to the “selective, vindictive justice” label that they keep on sticking to the Pinoy admin… will read that on my lunchtime break…
Thanks, Joe
oops, 2Bfair will do the rebuttal… I overlooked the sidebar for upcoming blogs….
The rebuttal is by 2BFair. Well worth reading.
I do believe that President Aquino does from time to time execute vindictive justice. But he is mainly the object of others’ vindictiveness.
Good. 🙂 And kudos for publishing it.
Grace Poe does not need demolishing, neither does Binay. Actually giving them too much credit makes them stronger and can help them play the victim card to the masa. Not wise.
Insightful but I am reserving my decision until Poe finally announces her decision but I have to say that she is a contender.
First, Philippine politics to be very volatile. New issues or changes or even death (as in Cory Aquino’s case) can make all the difference in the presidency.
Second, Poe is indeed young and still needs more experience but she gives hope to the people that other politicians lack. Issues concerning rampant corruption in the country has turn majority, if not all, of the people into cynics when it comes to politicians. Poe’s lack of experience in politics presents her in a way wherein she is free from corruption.
Her critics would often raise her silence on the Binay hearing as her being trapo but I think her non attendance is more similar to avoiding being labeled as grandstanding. Yes it is an important issue to participate in, but with the decorum or lack thereof often shown by the trio, I do understand her hesitation. Also a lot of other senators admittedly have also been absent from the said hearing. Plus I think the best way to address the charges of corruption against Binay is for a citizen to file a case. The Senate is not a court thus whatever hearing they conduct will not lead to an arrest or removal from office. The hearing on Binay has been dragging for so long, that people have forgotten that it needs to end so a report can be submitted and maybe used for filing a case against the vice-president.
Third. I am reserving judgment on Poe being a “friends over country” type. As we all know Philippines is a utang na loob culture. I’ve observed that regardless of which politician is seated, there will always be an influence of “utang na loob” be it from a kumare, kumpare or even businessmen since support and donations are often given during elections. The said concept is predicated in sharing and giving however once abused it turns it into a source of greed and powerplay. Poe so far has not shown any favors to anyone to be honest. Her critics are only speculating because she is quiet. But sometimes when you have nothing good to say , it is better to stay silent lest your words be twisted and misinterpreted.
She still has a long way to go in terms of experience and when compared to other politicians, but she has a fresh start and clean slate and people have voted for less before.
Superb counterpoint, Carol. Elegant. You are patient and considerate to hold that others may have reasons that we simply can’t see. I make that argument in defense of President Aquino often enough. If I try to wedge my size 12 feet into Ms. Poe’s petite shoes, I can comprehend that it is not really that easy to be forthright, and because of that, be close to both the Binay’s and high values. But she cannot avoid acts, because even silence is a decision, an act. And what seems like a high deed, chairing a committee that ostensibly is out to find the truth about 44 deaths, but not 67, and in the finding, rips the nation’s defense fabric to shreds and adds fuel to the fire of destabilization, is also a deed. Like a good mission that went bad, her investigation had consequences she did not anticipate, and so she, too, gets hauled before the court of critical judgment. Right here.
How much better if the committee had started with the simple assumptions that we are one nation, all out to do our best, rather than start with the assumption that someone really screwed up, and we are going to find him and make him apologize.
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Speaking of trees, I wonder if we are missing the forest for the trees.
In the next presidential election, there are two basic questions:
1. Who is the best candidate to serve as president?
2. Who is the best candidate to beat Binay?
The answer to both questions may be the same — or it may not.
Since Binay is still the front-runner, it can be assumed that the answer to both questions is NOT the same.
Granting the assumption, a third question arises: Which question is more important?
To me, the answer to the second question is more important than the first and has greater priority. You know why. (If you don’t know why or disagree, carry on.)
But there is a caveat to that greater priority… and it is that the alternative candidate to Binay must not be worst than Binay.
Between Mar and Grace, who has a better chance to win?
(I discount Cayetano’s chance of success as less than a snowball in hell; Miriam is sick in body and in mind; and Lacson and Duterte are thugs (or bandido’s in PinoyInEurope’s taxonomy. By the way, the term bandido is too pejorative; would suggest mandirigma or gerero… that is warrior in English. Or expand the taxonomy because bandido is appropriate in certain respects, like for Cojuangdo and GMA.) Further, I would not place Trillanes one heartbeat away from the presidency.)
In re-framing the question to answer, the evaluation approach or strategy, of necessity, must change.
It is not enough that we look at individual qualities and qualifications. These become secondary. Thus, winnability becomes the main criterion.
*****
I would argue that there is a third consideration:
3) The circumstances of time and life’s cycle and history and events, call it practicalities.
President Aquino’s . . . um . . . devotion to Mar Roxas for a favor granted exists, independent of who is the best candidate and who can beat Binay. And Mar Roxas’ time is now. Not 2022.
So perhaps the forest is very pragmatic, and the given is, okay, with Roxas as a primary candidate, what do we do to secure the best future for the Philippines, figuring that the best future is a future without Binay as President?
Any number of people can lead the Philippines competently. Roxas, Poe, Cayetano, Escudero, Villar, Teodoro . . . an oligarch or two . . .
So if it is Roxas, by fate of circumstance, who is the primary candidate, we need to make it a two candidate race, as three will split the good guy votes. To do that, we need to take care of other people. We need to give the key people, particularly Cayetano and Poe, big jobs in the Roxas government, and then let them loose in 2022, to win or lose depending on their achievements in office.
It really is like a corporation would work. Raise the top people up where their work can be seen and a legitimate succession candidate can be chosen.
In 2016, Roxas has always been the succession candidate.
Hi, Joe America. I just registered in your Blog. I hope I can contribute here from time to time.
As edgar lores frames it, I agree with him that “winnability becomes the main criterion.” He already took out the other candidates for reasons he stated. If we accept the the pruning out of these others, then that effectively gives us Poe or Roxas. And that brings us the winnabilty criterion. But to put in some of your views, perhaps we can explore how we can swing it for Mar as against Poe for 2016. I suppose Blogs like this helps on that score.
Well, hello, friend from a parallel universe. Pop through the worm hole anytime you wish. I always find your comments rich with reason and tainted now and then with good humor.
Winability as of today seems to be with Poe (see survey link posted above by Mark Anthony Bolivar Andrade). It of course could shift depending on who the money and political backers are of different candidates. And who is inclined to back out and who is inclined to go for the win, no matter what.
In that latter category, Binay seems 100% committed by ego, Roxas 95% committed by circumstance, and Poe 85% committed by the people. Either Poe or Roxas can win if the good vote is not too finely divided among too many candidates, and the Philippines I suspect would be in good hands either way. I may see Poe as a management lightweight, but she is smart, and she can get determined. I would expect to agree with about 90% of her decisions, but not those if she decided to pardon crooks, or if she engaged in witch hunts over deeds that unify the nation and point it in a positive direction.
Thanks for the kind words.
With respect to the private survey in the link posted by Mark Anthony Bolivar Andrade, the numbers especially with respect to Binay and Poe are plausible — the relentless negative comments against Binay and the still generally fresh view of Poe (compared to the view of social media such as your and Raissa’s blogs where we look at both sides of her). The numbers, using Pulse Asia numbers against this recent numbers are really quite marked: Binay/Poe = 26/18 versus Binay/Poe = 23/29, respectively.
I have to pinch myself, though, as a reminder that this private survey may not be of the quality of PA or SWS. Also, survey methodology and quality being equal, a 1000 respondent survey gives a plus/minus error of 3%; a 300 respondent survey an error of 6%. Thus, for example, if I am Poe’s adviser hiring a good survey company, I may ask the company for a 300 respondent survey (for quick feedback) almost every month from now on to gauge the direction or trend. There is the PA/SWS to confirm later.
The volatility in these survey numbers seem to be characteristic in the Philippines. There are just too many variables; it is early days yet.
PA and SWS usually comes out with quarterly surveys. Towards the end of March and the end of June we may see confirmation of trends.
They are plausible, aren’t they? Important point. Only pseudo-intellectuals would fault-find with Poe, I suppose. 🙂 Still, possibly it is for her own good to reflect on how to unify the nation rather than divide it. How to build confidence rather than take it away. How to assure stability rather than promote instability. A superior leader would be able to do those things.
“It really is like a corporation would work. Raise the top people up where their work can be seen and a legitimate succession candidate can be chosen.” Correct.
And keep possible contenders and complainers bound into the system of power – harness their ambition into useful work while making them keep watch on one another for you.
To compare it with Amaya: Raja Mangubat had his two warriors Songil and Paratawag as deputies, they kept each other busy and in check and then competed after his death.
You are skilled at polishing rough stones. ahahaha With words.
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Granted there is a third consideration. But there could be a fourth and a fifth consideration as well.
True, Mar may be the presumptive heir of the President, but nothing in politics is pre-ordained.
I have said that politics is all about perception. I will amend that to say that politics is all about perception and numbers.
Accordingly, is Mar perceived to be the best candidate? And, more importantly, does he have the numbers?
True again. in the corporate world succession to the top jobs often come from within. But in recent times an outsider can often take up the chief executive reins. An outsider, an outlier, can succeed in both meanings of the term — that is, to be a successor and to attain success.
We should not allow indifferent fate to happen to us. This is an ignominious Filipino trait. We must. where we can, dictate fate.
*****
Enormous challenge. How to dictate Leni Robredo onto the national stage. Awesome challenge.
Of, if Poe is the masa’s designated winner – a fate of sorts – how do we dictate to her the terms by which she runs and promises us things, like whether or not she will free jailed members of the class of impunity, and how she will deal with China and the BBL?
This is so difficult when the tabloid press simply can’t get beyond conflict and emotion. And the empowered use them to speak to the masa and bypass the people with values and a vested interest in a healthy, fair Philippines.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joey_Salceda might have more of a chance – proven track record as governor of Albay and professional bank management background, LP member, Noynoys classmate under Gloria herself. Strong but controlled and a pro.
Don’t know if he wants to leave his home province though, it makes a difference that he cares a lot and the people like him. Dark enough though to get the masa, businesslike and “Chinese” enough to appeal to the business sector. Worth thinking about.
And a Scorpio. I admit to this bit of superstition. These guys are allegedly very quiet, efficient and thorough – no nonsense.
Represents the new upper middle class I wrote about in the Tipping Point article.
Runs the province in a corporate way, with KSOs that are constantly monitored.
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Agree with the difficulties. Grace might even pardon the godfather of her child when he is convicted of plunder.
So many if’s. Eternal vigilance is the price… and all that.
*****
“By the way, the term bandido is too pejorative; would suggest mandirigma or gerero… that is warrior in English.” Good inspiration Edgar. I propose to keep the three dimensions:
1. comprador (business-oriented = originally Filipino-Chinese esprit)
2. patriotic (nation-oriented = originally Filipino-Spanish esprit)
3. datu (native-oriented = Malay leadership esprit)
then have the following additional dimensions which are implied by bandit:
a. thief
b. warrior
plus the following dimensions regarding who they do it for:
i. people
ii. self
iii. ego
So Duterte is an ego- and people-driven local patriot datu and a warrior.
Lacson is a self-driven national patriotic datu and warrior.
GMA = self- and ego-driven, thieving mixture of patriot + comprador + datu.
Marcos = people- and self-driven, patriot + comprador + datu, thief and warrior.
Late Robredo = people-driven mixture of patriot and datu with some comprador.
It would be up to a real pro to add criteria to measure each of these dimensions exactly.
Edgar: in the beginning I thought you were pedantic, now I see you as very PRECISE. 🙂
Some see me as sweeping generalizer: I prefer to say that I am the master of big pictures.
Joe I found too unemotional/Nordic at first: I now see him as a dispassioned analytical type.
******
Pedantic is good. Precise is even better.
*****
Plus we could add a dimension regarding the leadership style:
A. Authoritarian
B. Managerial
C. Consensus-based
Leni Robredo: consensus-based.
Marcos: authoritarian
GMA: authoritarian + managerial
Duterte: authoritarian + consensus-based (within Davao)
Binay: authoritarian + consensus-based (within his “gang”)
Mar: Managerial + probably consensus-based
Noynoy: Authoritarian + managerial
Cayetano: Authoritarian + managerial
Poe: managerial and consensus-based (in a sly sort of way)
And then you can define how the leadership is carried out by the dimensions:
– familistic
– institutional
– pragmatic
Noynoy is institutional with a familistic touch (Purisima), sometimes pragmatic (PDAF)
Mar is probably the most institutional with strong pragmatism in emergencies
Duterte is mainly pragmatic, only slightly familistic (Sara)
Binay is pragmatic and very familistic
Marcos was pragmatic with a focus on creating institutions and familistic in business
GMA: more institutional than Ferdie, very familistic, sometimes pragmatic
i agree with edgar expound on this please
Will take time to ferment a little more and make a clearer model. Besides my telco with remote RSA access should have started just 8 minutes ago, just waiting for the customer to call me. Which reminds me, gotta mail my Afro-Venezuelan teammate to be ready.
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PinoyInEurope,
A new post to explain and clarify the taxonomy?
*****
Just decided to change thief into wheeler-dealer, removing value judgement.
Jabba the Hutt is a wheeler-dealer, Han Solo a wheeler-dealer, patriot and warrior.
1. Who is the best candidate to serve as president?
2. Who is the best candidate to beat Binay?
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Did question no. 2 just answered question no. 1?
If you are pro-Binay, of course, the answer is yes. But if you’re not or you’re still undecided you will answer in the negative.
Question no. 2 presupposes that Binay is the man to beat. That could be true if we’re going to use popularity surveys in which he seems to be leading as basis. However, we have to remember that he had a split decision last time with Mar Roxas over the vice presidency office. The expected rematch, regardless of what’s out there is expected to be tight just like the first one. And that’s because they are no longer running as spare tires. Everything is on the line now and at this point nothing is a slam dunk because anything can happen that could tip the balance away from whoever is leading the pack.
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Jameboy,
Sorry, I meant to reply to you sooner but got sidetracked.
The two questions are posed on the basis of two assumptions.
1. The first assumption is that a Binay win in 2016 will be the worst thing that can happen to the country.
1.1. If you are pro-Binay, you have answered question1… and question 2 becomes irrelevant.
1.2. If you are Binay phobic as I am, then the answer to question 2 is the correct answer to question 1… providing the caveat is satisfied.
1.2.1. I am of the opinion that providing an answer to question 1 on its own is non-meritorious and non-strategic for both the forthcoming election as well as the country.
2. The second assumption is that Binay is the man to beat.
2.1. This assumption is made, as you correctly point out, on the basis of electoral surveys.
2.2. You are further right to point out that the Roxas-Binay rivalry has been a close contest. And both rivals have been praised and condemned with (a) faint praise and (b) allegations of misconduct. Right now, I would say that Binay is covered with more mud than Roxas because the allegations against him (and his family) are of the criminal kind.
2.3. Truth be told, as JoeAm has opined, Binay should NOT be in the running at all. (We are a permissive society with low ethical standards.)
2.4. The assumption is also made on the basis of Nancy’s senatorial win. Make no mistake. The groundwork, the network, the machinery for a Binay win is in place… and it is formidable as attested to by Nancy’s win, a nobody with no senatorial qualifications in her own right. (Again, we are an undiscriminating society with low standards for government officials.)
2.5. Mar, as DILG secretary, has had the opportunity to form a counter network. We do not know whether he has seized the opportunity.
2.6. If the rivals are now not running as spare tires as you aptly put it, I am of the opinion that the thread on Roxas is worst for wear even though Binay’s is covered with mud. Again, my opinion is based (a) on the glacial rise of Mar’s standing in the polls, and (b) his uneven performance .
*****
“The assumption is also made on the basis of Nancy’s senatorial win. Make no mistake. The groundwork, the network, the machinery for a Binay win is in place… and it is formidable as attested to by Nancy’s win, a nobody with no senatorial qualifications in her own right.”
The senatorial election was held before the hearings on the BInay corruption came into the fore. At that time, the sister-city acts were in place. So the sister-city mayors have paid their dues to the VP by helping in the election of Nancy.
Now, for the presidential election, WALA NANG UTANG NA LOOB ang mga sister-city mayors..nakabayad na sila kay Nancy. so that machinery/network is GONE… and the corruption saga continues…
MAR ROXAS, on the other hand, is currenlty the DILG secretary and has been in close coordination with local government officials – mayors, councilors, police, etc. Of course, the network is established and is there. But he (Mar) does not have to shout to the whole country about it. He has to show that he is working because it is not yet time for campaigning. Should he decide to be the next President, he will be one.
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Chit,
The senatorial elections was just a test run of the Binay machinery. The Utang Na Loob has not been extinguished. Far from it.
Why?
Because the Utang, the Debt, was incurred for the presidency which is the ultimate prize… and the presidency has NOT been won.
Therefore the spoils upon which the Debt has been premised have NOT been gained, and therefore the promised spoils have not been awarded.
The Debt has yet to be redeemed.
True, the Binay corruption hearings have yielded fruit. Binay is now within the crosshairs Ombudsman’s scope. But the pace of investigation and justice is glacial. Will the man be charged before the elections? Will he be detained by then? Or will he still be able to run?
We must assume the worst case and be prepared for the possibility that he will still be able to run. It would be the height of folly to do otherwise.
*****
edgar lores,
Mar Roxas is ready on his rematch with Binay because this time there is one solid agreement who the party will support and carry up to the end. Unless of course Grace Poe decides to rock the boat and be the spoiler. I’m of the opinion she will not.
The survey says Binay is the man to beat and that could be true even though I’m not a big fan of surveys. But if I’m going to bet or vote I’ll pick Mar Roxas. And I’ll pick him because of his credentials, because of him and not because of Binay.
For me, regardless of allegations and accusations against both, either of them are qualified and are competent for the position. They both have the experience, knowledge and intelligence that they can bring to the Office.
The notion that a Binay presidency will be bad or worse or that a Roxas watch will be nice and successful is just an inconsequential drivel. Sorry about that. No one knows what’s going to happen until it happens. But having said that there are really baggages in both candidates that people are rightfully concerned of.
In Binay’s case, with Erap, a convicted plunderer hovering around him like what Freddie Roach does with Pacquiao is not a welcome sign for people who are looking for good governance. And we have yet to talk about Jinggoy, Enrile, et. al. Them that represent the decay in Philippine politics. Of course the allegation of corruption will remain with Jojo even if he captures Malacanang. Not good.
In Roxas case, it’s not about friends with benefits or ex-con connection but the image of a softie which often translates to slowness, too gentle to a fault or simply weak. Not good, too. His image as Mr. Clean is a concern for it might result to a clean or blank slate in terms of performance or accomplishments.
In short, both men are facing formidable challenges not only against each other but also with their own selves.
*******
Inconsequential drivel? Really?
Allow me to quote you:
“Binay’s executive experience seems to me to be how to game the system to gain power and wealth, and that seems like poor presidential credentials.”
*****
You just quoted JoeAm, not me.
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Did I? Sorry!
How about this then?
“And while we’re at it let’s continue to gauge the three in terms of what they can offer or what they can bring to the Office of the President, just in case.”
What’s the purpose of gauging if it’s all “inconsequential drivel”?
*****
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And you did agree with JoeAm on that quote.
*****
Inconsequential drivel because it’s just that. We don’t know what the future holds. We can only guess and until our guesses turns to fact, it’s just a drivel (foolish or senseless talk).
*******
We make comments for a purpose, part of which is to analyze and clarify the present and past in order to influence the future.
People read what we write. And what we write may strike a chord in them, resonate with them, either in a negative way or a positive way. And what resonates with them will mold their thoughts, choices and actions.
(I shouldn’t even have to say this.)
It cannot be inconsequential drivel. If it were, why bother to comment at all?
******
My bookie Sal disagrees and so do my business colleagues. They both peg good risk assessment as a way to make a lot of money. And mis-calculations as a good way to screw up a business . . . or a nation.
Or bad information. Or poor analysis.
I think you took the term out of context. Read back and you’ll realize it’s not about comments per se but about certain ideas that for me is just that. And remember, that is my comments about it.
edgar l.
Now. In the specific example we are discussing, I said an OFW can make a correct electoral choice in spite of the fact that he is a great distance away from home. His physical distance from home “does not matter” in the decision-making process because he can virtually pick up the information he needs.
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And that’s the reason why I said you mixed up distance with exposure to information. Two separate issues you are now trying to connect to justify a weak theory that a
person having been exposed to higher standards, they are more likely to make the correct electoral choices. The same theory I expressed my doubt on as to how likely and credible it is which unfortunately led to a circuitous argument with a sprinkle of thank yous that baffles me.
My examples are very clear and I even wrote that a person who is far away “have a different experience and environment that colors his perception of what’s happening back home.” Proof that distance, unlike what you said, matters. Regardless of whether he can make a correct choice or not distance is a factor in his decision. For clarity and easy comprehension make that ‘presence’ instead of distance.
Your understanding of what I wrote and the subsequent thank yous you gave me only clouded the discussion for you acted like a car driver who go lost but still continue your way instead of stopping and asking for direction.
Now, you talk about “fully concentrated” which, again, you haphazardly assumed is what I meant. Please ask for clarification before you make your own conclusion.
When you are lost by reason of wayward assumption the only thing to do to be able to go back in the discussion is very easy: just ask.
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Jameboy,
There is no mix-up. Again let me give you a definition of mix-up: “a confusion of one thing with another”.
What is the mix-up here? “Distance” and “information”?
I am not confusing one with the other. I am saying that in the Internet age virtual information is accessible wherever you are, all things being equal. That is why distance does not matter.
The mix-up, the confusion, is purely in your mind.
If you go back to my post dated March 9, 2015 at 5:59 pm, there are two parts to my contention:
1. The first part is: OFWs are the main breadwinners and can influence their families in making electoral choices.
2. The second part is: OFWs are likely to make a correct electoral choice because of their exposure to higher standards.
On March 10, 2015 at 7:18 pm, you questioned the second part by saying that it is not likely for an OFW to make a credible correct choice because he is for the most part “out of the country.” You also added, as a first “example”, that OFWs can offer a different perspective in looking on issues from a distance but this does not guarantee a correct choice.
My rebuttal of “distance does not matter” was in response to your first statement and not to your example. By distance I meant physical or geographical distance (as stated in my March 11, 2015 at 4:07 am post.)
You mistakenly assume that my rebuttal also applied to your first example. No, it does not; I made this clear in the 4:07 am post. (It would be illogical for me to apply it to your example. Why? Because my second contention is that geographical distance — the OFWs’ exposure to higher standards — does indeed make a difference.) My first stated reason was that people within the country make incorrect choices all the time. And my second stated reason, given in the aforementioned 4:07 am post, was that virtual info is accessible wherever you are.
So my rebuttal specifically applies to your first statement and its “out of the country” argument, and specifically for those two stated reasons. The rebuttal is NOT a generalized statement.
You took my rebuttal and presented (on March 11, 2015 at 5:31 am) the example of a “full concentration” OFW. I have characterized this example as not illustrative of the argument that “distance does matter.” As I said it is incidental.
My claim that your example supports my contention is true to an extent. Refer to my March 11, 2015 at 11:52 am and 5:11 pm posts.
Now you ask me to request you for a clarification. Why? That is quite improper and impolite. I do not need your permission to make my own conclusions. You say my interpretation is haphazard but do not lay out any reason.
*****
I am saying that in the Internet age virtual information is accessible wherever you are, all things being equal. That is why distance does not matter.
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Don’t just say it give an example showing your idea in concrete form. Look, you cannot even dispute my own examples and what I said about people from far away tending to see things differently with those who are at home. You cannot even dispute that to prove distance doesn’t matter.
Just say you don’t accept it and it would be fine. Or if you have other reason, there’s no shame is having your idea shaken or proven weak. I, too, experience such thing from time to time. I also commit mistakes and I admit it if its really there. Sometimes you are caught flat-footed pushing for an idea that has no legs to stand on, and then, bang!
It’s the hazard of the trade. Okay lang ‘yun. 🙂
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Jameboy,
I gave a concrete example: “Whether you are in Naga or in Sydney, one can arguably access the same sources of information… and be able to make a correct choice.” This shows that you have not been reading and understanding my responses.
As to your first example, I did state that was not covered by my rebuttal in my last post. Again, this shows that you have not been reading and understanding my reasoning.
Rebut my reasoning by reasons and don’t just make unsupported claims.
While you are still at it, are you aware that your second example of the “full concentration” OFW contradicts your first statement that an OFW “out of the country” can hardly make a correct electoral decision?
*****
I am saying that in the Internet age virtual information is accessible wherever you are, all things being equal. That is why distance does not matter.
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That is access to information you are talking about and not about making correct choice. Internet, wherever you are, can reach you. No distance, fine. But it has nothing to do with correct decision. You just have access and you still have to formulate a decision.
Just because you have the info at hand doesn’t mean you can already make correct decision on issues back home, thousands of miles away. It doesn’t work that way.
If it was, thousands or millions of OFWs would have been making correct choices and advising their relatives back home.
And OFWs, the thinking ones, knows that.
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Jameboy,
You say the Internet provides access to information. Then you say “it” — I do not know what you are referring to here, whether the Internet or information, but the last antecedent is the former — “has nothing to do with correct decision.”
Huh?
If the Internet can provide information on an issue you are thinking about and on which you have to make a decision, then that Information becomes fundamental input to your decision-making process.
Information, if you are smart and use it wisely, should enable you to make a better decision, if not the correct decision.
*****
Whether one is in Naga or Sydney you can access information, sure. With regard to being able to make correct choices, that is another matter. Access to info is not an assurance that you’ll make correct choices.
That is the reason I commented in your “original” post where you assumed that since OFW are exposed to high standards, they are more likely to make the correct electoral choices.
I have been reading your posts and it was weak in substance and so full on trivial matters like definitions and thank yous and about ‘telling me’, etc. You are so mixed up that you are nitpicking my statements instead of destroying it by your own logic and reason.
To tell you straight, your theory about OFWs making correct choices because they are exposed to higher standards is the real fallacy. No such thing. The people in the country knows what is really going on. They are living, eating and breathing reality at home. The OFWs you are depending on to make the correct choices are mostly relying on second hand info through TFC and ANC. That is, if they are interested in what’s happening in the country. Most of them are focus on personal/professional matters to be bothered by political circus back home.
That’s my last word on this discussion. Thanks. 🙂
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Running away from logic, hey?
Thank you, too, for the exercise.
*****
Nice analysis. Binay’s VP win was a surprise considering that Mar was leading the surveys before the final leg of the campaign period in 2010. Mar was in fact a very winnable candidate back then. Come 2016, they are vying for the highest position and as you say, anything can happen.
The third question would be:
Who is the administration’s candidate for President?
Because he who holds the rein of power leashes it to favour the chosen one.
And no one can win over an administration candidate.
Look at GMA – she won her 2nd term because she used all the power at her disposal.
FVR won because at the last minute, Pres. Cory decided to support him. MDS would have won, so she says.
Joseph Estrada became the President because he was the VP of Pres. Ramos. He was the administration candidate.
So whoever the current administration supports will definitely become the next President of the Republic.
What are we in power for?
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GMA won because she cheated.
There is some truth to the claim that the administration candidate will win.
There is also some truth that the incumbent vice-president will succeed the sitting president… even though the vice-president is not the administration candidate. Take the cases of (a) Garcia (Nacionalista) and Macapagal (Liberal); and (b) the cited Ramos (Lakas-CMD) and Erap (LAMP – a coalition of LDP. NPC, PMP and PDP).
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The POPULIST is gaining ground against another populist tainted with corruption…
http://politics.com.ph/post/poe-overtakes-binay-in-private-survey-duterte-hot-on-their-heels
Fascinating. Single digits for Roxas. So the survey might have been commissioned by LP or NP or UNA, I would imagine. More likely, LP or NP, as UNA would have cooked the books differently.
Surveys are difficult because it depends on what sample you use and how representative it is of social groups in an entire community. If the classification and estimation of what social groups exist is outdated or wrong in estimating their part, the survey is off mark.
Don’t even have to cook the books on purpose. If you are seeing things from Davao or Tondo you will see more of certain groups than seeing things from Makati or Sarrat.
I wonder if this is Osmena’s survey. It seemed to me he was going to conduct one. I read that some months ago. He, of course, favors Poe and has been encouraging her to run.
It is common practice in Europe to commission surveys and release them if they are favorable. And pay more to hide them if not. Institutions doing surveys are known to have certain tendencies and affiliations.
It would be interesting to know which institution did the survey, who they are allegedly closer to, what methodology they actually used. How the Chi Square test looks like.
ARGGGGHHHHHH! Stop swearing in this blog. “Chi square test!”
f-tests and t-tests and other statistical obscenities.
I once used regression analysis at the bank I worked for to project which branches would do well or poorly, and why. I’ve never seen so many stoned faces around the table, or stone faces, rather. I tucked it into my briefcase never to see the light of day again.
Why is the Filipino expat talents not in the equation in the discussions? There are 12 percent of Overseas Filipinos expat talents abroad, particularly from USA, Europe, Canada and Australia. Who among the possible presidential candidate will tap the enormous potential of kababayan talented global patriotics?
They are now, as you were kind enough to insert them. The difficulty is identifying them. Then qualifying them. Then justifying bringing them “home” when they have chosen to be elsewhere . . . and there are a lot of nationalists about.
Overseas Filipino who want to run for any kind of leadership at home should have IMHO been back “on the ground” for at least 5 years, otherwise they don’t know the lay of the land. Even to be just advisers they should have had business, management or PR experience otherwise forget it. Those who write openly like me are out of the question – no Italian leader wanted to hire Macchiavelli after he wrote “The Prince”. Consiglieri don’t talk or write openly about how the Mafia works after all. So much for that part.
A Presidentiable should have been in the Senate or Cabinet, or at LEAST have been Governor or big city Mayor for a while, but THAT usually does not work IMHO because local/regional and national politics are an entirely different ballgame. Duterte knows why he backed down, he would reach his Peter principle incompetence level if he tried to be President, Gordon was not aware of that. Makes expats even more out of the question.
Yes, excellent set of standards/guidelines. Even business people here who want a role in government (Osmena, Villar) seem go through the senate, as a pre-qualification. It would take a bold overseas Filipino to track a career path into politics, or a bold oligarch here, even. Roxas comes from that line and he gets the national cold shoulder.
Even career military people like Trillanes and Honasan have realized that the way is through the Senate. Ramos was the notable exception in exceptional times.
The Filipino emphasis on rhetoric and image over real hard work is Roxas’s problem. People from the Cabinet are not first choice, Senators are. The new school that like Leni Robredo are few. Ramos was results-oriented, being Protestant. Also an exception.
Because they in general do not register to vote. Although I believe this could be changed with a viral or grassroots campaign or two.
Are dual citizens allowed to vote?
Has the SC ruled on this?
Let’s do some projections:
Total Voting Age Population 2013 62,422,907.00
Estimated Population 2016 100,000,000.00
Estimated Voter for 2016 at 7% growth 66,792,510.49
31,573,506.36 50.58%
Estimated Voter Turnout for 2016 @ 68% 45,418,907.13
Estimated Expat Percentage 12%
Estimated Expat Population 12,000,000.00
Discounting Expats who cant vote for one reason or another:
9,000,000.00
I can’t find a count of Expat turnout so lets prepare 2 scenarios:
Scenario 1: If these Expats already vote then they are already part of the turnout
Percentage of Expats in total vote scenario 1 26%
Scenario 2: If these Expats do not vote then they add to the turnout
Turnout with Expats 54,418,907.00
Percentage of Expats in total vote scenario 2 17%
I’d do a third scenario but my gut tells me that the reality if scenario 2. I believe less than 100,000.00 votes have been cast by expats.
AVERAGE VOTER TURNOUT 2010 64.7
AVERAGE VOTER TURNOUT 2004 75.14
AVERAGE VOTER TURNOUT 1998 68.96
AVERAGE VOTER TURNOUT 1992 65.29
AVERAGE VOTER TURNOUT 4 elections 68.5225
Filipino Expats can practically determine who the next President is.
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overseas_Absentee_Voting_Act
*****
thanks
For the 2004 elections:
The turnout[4] yielded 364,187 registrants where 233,092 went on to vote.
00, 49 and 13hundreds of a Filipino, and do you also know what parts of a Filipino these are?
OFW registered voters and turn out in past election has been irrelevant (very small) so even if OFW’s (I am included) constitute 12% of Population they are usually ignored…
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Just a thought: perhaps the influence of OFWs is not in their votes but in their influence of family members back home?
*****
Don’t think so. They are too caught up in the insular mentality, choosing subliminally based on identity and traditional leanings, even if they were abroad too they often snap back into it. Asked my old man WHY he is for Grace Poe, no answer forthcoming until now.
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If one reads the comments in this blog and Raissa’s, one discovers that many commenters are OFWs or ex-OFWs. Having experienced a world outside the narrow confines of their barrios and having seen something better, they have discarded their insular mentality.
As ultimate proof I present — yourself.
*****
Not necessarily better but different – it forces you to think on your feet. I really started to learn when I left the confines of my first immigrant barrio to build my career. Because immigrant barrios can be just as cozy – and stifling – as the barrios back home.
There is a good reason why Braveheart was taken by his uncle to see the world and become a Latin- and French-speaking “barbarian”. It helps shape one’s own view.
Took another “barbarian” from Europe’s mountains to tell me: “you Filipinos seem to always choose the path of least resistance, you included”. Whenever I said something cannot be done his question to me was “why not?”. The guy is dead now, I thank him.
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Thanks. My point was that OFWs and ex-OFWs being the main breadwinners could influence their families in making electoral choices. And having been exposed to higher standards, they are more likely to make the correct electoral choices.
*****
Might be. Although I wrote in my Tipping Point article that “they will run against walls, people will not understand them” – because they cannot visualize what they are saying.
The Ibarra effect. Depends on the authority of the breadwinner. That can differ.
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Granted. It’s hard to generalize. But on anecdotal evidence, I would say the influence of OFWs is not insignificant.
*****
My point was that OFWs and ex-OFWs being the main breadwinners could influence their families in making electoral choices. And having been exposed to higher standards, they are more likely to make the correct electoral choices.
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I don’t know how likely and credible a ‘correct electoral choices’ made by someone who for the most part is out of the country. I think OFWs can offer or suggest a different angle or perspective on election or voting issue for looking on it from a distance but that doesn’t guarantee that it’s going to be the ‘correct choice’.
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It’s not a matter of distance. People within the country make incorrect choices all the time.
*****
It’s not a matter of distance. People within the country make incorrect choices all the time.
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Oh, believe me distance matter and more. With regard to ‘incorrect choices’, who really is to say what is correct? Most of the time an incorrect choice of one is a perfect choice for another.
Like I said, it is best to discuss the issue of election, voting, etc. on another blog dedicated to it.
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Jameboy,
You are fudging the issue.
My original contention was that (ex-)OFWs can (a) influence their family’s vote because they are the breadwinners; and (b) they are more likely to make a correct electoral choice due to being exposed to higher standards.
You disagreed saying that it is not likely or credible for “someone who for the most part is out of the country” to make a correct choice.
My rebuttal was: distance does not matter.
Let us be specific. By distance I meant physical distance. More specifically, I meant geographical distance. Agree?
In the Internet age, all things being equal, physical distance does not matter… because the distance to information is virtually negligible. Whether you are in Naga or in Sydney, one can arguably access the same sources of information… and be able to make a correct choice.
So, sorry, I do not believe you when you say “Oh, believe me distance matter (sic) and more.”
Now you are attempting to shift the issue as to what a “correct decision” consist of. This is another issue altogether. But my input to this issue was: exposure to higher standards — and by that I meant higher standards of public office — makes for a qualitative difference in making a correct decision.
*****
edgar lores
First off, shifting the issue is way off. Never introduced anything new in the discussion than what you talked about. You talked about “People within the country make incorrect choices all the time”, so I have to talk about it and advance a different view regarding the incorrectness or correctness of a choice or decision.
Now with regard to ‘distance’, I again advanced a different view by insinuating that distance matter in that a person who is far away, regardless if he sees the same information or not with those of his relatives in the country, have a different experience and environment that colors his perception of what’s happening back home. He may be thinking clearly and analyze the situation with full concentration than his relatives back home who are hard press to even survive their daily existence.
You mixed up physical distance with exposure to information. We can all read the same thing and see the same event but where and how situated we are affects how we appreciate information perceived. If we are in a war-torn country, any information coming from the Philippine is God-sent and positive. If we are in a prosperous and peaceful environment any news from the country is pathetic or even a source of stress.
Again, there is really no reliable standard to measure whether what an ‘incorrect choice’ is and what is not.
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Jameboy,
Thank you for agreeing with me that “distance does not matter” in making electoral choices.
You say i “mixed up physical distance with exposure to information.”
On the contrary, we were talking about (ex-)OFWs who for the most part are people “out of the country” in your own words. And when I made the following two statements — “It’s not a matter of distance. People within the country make incorrect choices all the time.” — it is quite clear that I was referring to physical distance.
Now as to the correctness or incorrectness of an electoral choice, you say there is no reliable standard.
1. Read the title of this post. Does it not make clear to you that there are reasons, bases, standards for making an electoral choice? It is true to a certain extent that the past and the present of an electoral candidate are not accurate predictors of his future acts, but they are what we base judgments on.
If you do not accept this, then why join the conversation?
We can arrive at a consensus on what constitutes reliable standards, such as (a) educational attainment, (b) job experience, (c) ideological leanings; (d) past and present associations; and (e) yes, higher standards of public office from abroad — just to name five.
3. Let me quote you again on a reason for joining the conversation: “And while we’re at it let’s continue to gauge the three in terms of what they can offer or what they can bring to the Office of the President, just in case.” One meaning of gauge is: “to make conformable to a standard.” (Reference: Dictionary.com)
*****
Seriously, I don’t know where you get that idea. My post was very clear in explaining why distance matter and I even gave some examples to show why. Before thanking me I suggest you do not assume that I agree with you until you can show basis for it.
I should not have use the term ‘gauge’ for it obviously confused you. My bad. Just ignore that word and replace it with ‘assess’ or ‘measure’ or ‘evaluate’.
Yes, you are referring to physical distance which you said, ‘does not matter’. I presented a different view through examples showing it matters.
I think the issue is very and I’m just presenting my understanding of the matter which happens to contradict with yours.
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Jameboy,
If I understand what you write according to the meaning of words in the dictionary, then I am not the one who is confused.
Whether you use “assess”, “measure”, or “evaluate” as a substitute for “gauge”, you are in fact using a yardstick (or criterion) to perform the action indicated by the verb. That yardstick is a standard.
This is one of your examples: “He (referring to a person who is far away) may be thinking clearly and analyze the situation with full concentration than his relatives back home who are hard press to even survive their daily existence.”
Your example does not contradict my contention that physical distance does not matter. In fact, your example supports my contention. That is why I said thank you.
And I thank you again.
*****
First, you quoted somebody and attributed it to me. Now, you want to argue with words definition. I think instead of concentrating with trivial matters why not present an idea of mine which you think is not in accord to what is proper or not true or not right. Or tell me pointblank where you disagree with me and show proof or examples. Clear ones.
With regard to ‘distance’ you said it doesn’t matter. I said it does and gave an examples. It’s like, you said it’s white and I said it’s black and gave samples to prove it. And you come back and tell me I support you and thank me? What is that?
How can I support your contention that distance does not matter when I declared unequivocally and clearly that it matters? Can’t see the difference there? You said no, I said yes. 🙂
Show me, tell me why I ‘support’ your contention. Don’t just assume and thank me.
Lastly, you don’t have to believe what I’m saying. Most of the time I advance a different view or a view coming from another angle. It’s a take it or leave thing, my friend.
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Jameboy,
I am not really arguing with you on word definitions. I am telling you what the words — “gauge”, “assess”, “measure” and “evaluate” — mean according to the dictionary and what one implication of their meanings is… which is the necessity for a yardstick.
Now. In the specific example we are discussing, I said an OFW can make a correct electoral choice in spite of the fact that he is a great distance away from home. His physical distance from home “does not matter” in the decision-making process because he can virtually pick up the information he needs.
When I read your example, my understanding is that the OFW can also make a correct electoral choice in spite of the fact that he is a great distance away from home. In this sense, his physical distance from home “does not matter.” That is why I say you support my contention.
But the reason you give is that he can do this because he can be fully concentrated when he is away from home. This is why you say distance matters.
On reflection, yours is not a good example because the reason is incidental — meaning not true cause and effect — and based on a fallacy. What is the fallacy? You seem to imply that the OFW can only be fully concentrated when he is away from home, and this leads to the presumption that the he cannot be fully concentrated when he is in the home country. That presumption is illogical and untenable.
*****
🙂 🙂 🙂 very precise
There are also OFWs though who probably stay too much in their immigrant barrios and keep their insularity inspite of having been abroad. AND try so hard to be Western that they have to look down on other Filipinos to prove it. You know which guys I mean.
Met similar people in New York, there trying so hard to be brown Americans unthinkingly imitating everything there – while sticking only to themselves – was annoying.
Actually a part of the Makati crowd is like that – pseudo-international but insular.
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That’s true. For some, travelling is not as broadening an experience as it is for others.
The vagaries of human behavior are sometimes beyond understanding.
*****
12 million Filipino expats, 4 million helpers and care takers, 4 million craftsman and woman, 4 million with a career. The first 2 groups are not overly interested in politics, the last 4 show the attitudes you described.
I think that maximum a few hundred thousands will give voting advice at their families back home. And let’s hope that the majority of them gives good advise that is picked up by their families.
That might be true to those OFW’s who are well informed about the affairs of the government back home…
You hit it right on the money @edgar lores.
The OFW’s influence is felt more in their influence to the voting members of their families and extensions. That’s basically one of our advocacies in CPM – voter education through the OFW network.
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Like Carlos Ante? You remember him in Raissa’s blog?
*****
I think there should be an article about election or voting habit of Filipinos so that we can thresh out everything there.
Good suggestion, jameboy. Let me post that on the “idea” list. Thanks.
The original question was, who is Grace Poe? It is hard to really tell. During the common brainstorming, I developed the following model to classify Filipino leaders:
1. comprador (business-oriented = originally Filipino-Chinese esprit)
2. patriotic (nation-oriented = originally Filipino-Spanish esprit)
3. datu (native-oriented = Malay leadership esprit)
PRIMARY LEADERSHIP ATTITUDE
Each leader is a certain mixture of these three attitudes with one predominating:
Compradores
More international and business-oriented in outlook. Often partly Chinese in origin.
Examples: Aguinaldo, Rizal, Makati business people, most LP members, some local politicians like Governor Joey Sarte Salceda of Albay and Chavit Singson
Patriots
Nationalistic and state-oriented, sometimes military. Often Spanish mestizo in origin.
Examples: Bonifacio, Trillanes, Cayetano, most NP members
Datus
Close to the common people in outlook. Malay leadership style. Often populist.
Examples: Estrada, Binay, Duterte, Ferdinand Marcos, Gloria, most UNA members
You will of course have mixed styles, for example:
– Estrada is a patriot turned more into a datu
– Cayetano is a patriot with strong comprador elements
– Mar is a comprador who could have gentle datu elements
– Noynoy is a comprador with strong patriotic elements. His lack of a strong datu element caused him many problems with certain quarters
– Duterte is a datu or even local raja with local patriotic elements
– Ferdinand Marcos was a datu who used patriotic propaganda
– Gloria was a datu who used her comprador knowledge
– Trillanes also has strong military datu elements
LEADERSHIP STYLE DIMENSIONS:
Then one could add the following dimensions to characterize HOW they lead:
Wheeler-dealer: Binay, Chavit Singson, Poe who knows
Warrior: Duterte, Ferdinand Marcos, maybe Cayetano, Trillanes
Authoritarian: Ferdinand Marcos, Gloria, Noynoy, Duterte, maybe Cayetano, Binay
Consensus-based: both Robredos, Governor Joey Salceda, Duterte and possibly Mar and Poe
Managerial: GMA, Cayetano, Governor Joey Salceda, Poe, both Robredos, Mar partly
Familistic: Binay, Ferdinand Marcos, Noynoy occasionally(Purisima), Duterte rarely, Poe ?
Institutional: both Robredos, Salceda, Mar mostly, Binay as needed, Marcos built some
Pragmatic: Mar when needed, Duterte often, Noynoy sometimes, Marcos, Lacson, Poe ?
Independence: Ferdinand Marcos, Gloria, Cayetano, Trillanes, Noynoy mostly, Mar?, Poe?
PRIMARY LEADERSHIP MOTIVATION
Now let us look WHO they primarily do it for. I see three dimensions here:
For the people: both Robredos, Governor Joey Salceda, Noynoy, Trillanes, Mar
For their ego: Duterte, Cayetano, Ferdinand Marcos, Santiago
For themselves: GMA, Lacson, Poe, Chavit, Binay
You have all sorts of combinations as well:
– Marcos did it for his ego mainly but also for the people AND himself
– Cayetano is mainly ego-driven, but will also serve the people
– GMA did it mainly for herself and then for her ego
– Noynoy also did it for his ego – in my opinion
– Mar may have some class selfishness
Now what would be the best leader depends on who you ask, but:
– Better not take a wheeler-dealer. They should do real business.
– Avoid those who are TOO familistic, warrior or authoritarian.
– Managerial, institutional and consensus-based is preferable.
– Independence is important for clear and consistent policy.
– Pragmatism is only OK if the leader is people-driven.
Of course people-driven leaders are the best if the other aspects of their leadership are OK – and if they can relate to all three leadership attitudes in some way even they have one or two main attitudes. How to weigh which factors are more important is a personal judgement.
Can’t have everything and everybody has preferences. What makes me uneasy about Poe is that it is hard to tell who she really is, especially when it comes to wheeler-dealer, pragmatism and familistic aspects. And her independence – although with Mar I also have doubts here.
What is the best mix of comprador, patriot and datu elements and how the balance between consensus-based and authoritarian, managerial and warrior should look like is a question of how one thinks the country should be ruled and how mature the society is. Authoritarian warriors like Marcos or authoritarian managers like GMA are no longer needed nowadays. Managerial, institutional and consensus-based as much as possible, authoritarian, warrior and pragmatic only when needed and in a controlled way. As independent as possible please.
Last but not least, a really unifying leader should be able to win not just the trust of the people who are exactly like him, whether he is comprador, patriot or datu: he should be able to win the trust of a large majority, which is hard given the postcolonial divisions that still exist.
Loyalty to country, good business and equal opportunities for the masses are all necessary, but always a balancing act, so the best leader is one who is able to address all issues clearly. And build a good team to address all aspects. None of those available have yet convinced me.
May I add: IMHO real leadership as service to one’s community only takes place at most at the local and provincial level in the Philippines. But at least it has begun to take root.
Not yet at the national level. Some beginnings coming from Noynoy of course, I admit that.
What makes me uneasy about Poe is that it is hard to tell who she really is, especially when it comes to wheeler-dealer, pragmatism and familistic aspects. And her independence – although with Mar I also have doubts here.
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Who Grace Poe really is, while necessary to establish, appears to be irrelevant with those who made her top the popular surveys or makes her popular. For them, she is the educated and articulate senator and most importantly the daughter of the most beloved Filipino icon in history, FPJ. That’s all about what she really is, so far.
And that is so because she has nothing to show in terms of executive background or experience in heading a government department. She’s more above Cory Aquino in terms of government experience before Cory became president and at par with Noli De Castro in terms of popularity – despite having a blank resume in government experience – before he became a senator.
Overall the significance of the question of who one really is has been blurred by our frustrating experience with those whom we thought we knew who they are but in reality is not what they present themselves to be.
In short, there is really wisdom in the saying that talks about the proof of the pudding.
@jameboy, you captured my readout exactly. My progression on Poe has gone from enthusiasm and anticipation to disappointment to dismay, and along with it, my confidence and trust quotient has gone from strong to very weak.
” . . . our frustrating experience with those whom we thought we knew who they are but in reality is not what they present themselves to be.” Nails it.
Now what goes down can come up, but she now has to work at it, whereas before, I had gifted it to her.
Perception is reality, until further notice.
(“,)
ewan ko sa inyo. Lahat na lng nang maupi di qualified. Eh di kayo tumakbo malaman nyo.!
PiE,
“Those who write openly like me are out of the question – no Italian leader wanted to hire Macchiavelli after he wrote “The Prince”. Consiglieri don’t talk or write openly about how the Mafia works after all. So much for that part.”
Be in the sidelines, be behind the scenes. In my experience as a just watch and learn guy, for seven or eight years now, public office is not even in my dreams, but in you, I can see a future leader. you have the guts, so have the glory.
Maybe there is an opening in Governor Salceda’s office or the hometown barangay of your folks.
In the interim, keep on sharing, I promise not to get carried away or risk doing stupid stuff.
People who can think of “what-if” scenarios are invaluable in the area of security and using (gathering and interpreting) intel. Yes, I agree with Karl about PiE and this kind of activity in the service of the country. I wouldn’t be surprised if Nicolo Machiavelli did in fact find employment for one or many princes in the land of super intrigue and poisoned potions. I’m sure he wouldn’t blow his cover by telling us about it.
Actually I am quite satisfied with my line of work at the moment, I am not looking for public office or any closeness to politics. Just sharing my thoughts and some part of what I have seen, thanks to Internet. Showing that there are many ways to go from A to B.
Those who are at home have to find their own solutions though – they are the ones who have to live everyday with the country’s problems. I can only suggest ways of finding them. Of course I hope that I can smile a little bit more the next time I visit the old country.
Regarding presidency: I have come to the conclusion that the Philippines is a) too big b) too diverse c) too unruly to be ruled by any one person properly. That is why nobody really fits the bill, it is the system that is IMHO wrong. A federal bicameral parliamentary system would be better. It would give the diverse regions better representation and encourage participation, it has more continuity built into it and responsibility spread on more shoulders. But for the moment, just settle with a President who does the least harm – Mar.
Those who are at home have to find their own solutions though – they are the ones who have to live everyday with the country’s problems. I can only suggest ways of finding them.
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I agree and that should be the case.
It was partly a witch hunt and partly a committee hearing in aid of election…
Instead of putting the correct perspective on the incident it turned out to be a McCarthy type series of hearings..
The police and military had been on the hunt for Marwan and co. since 2005….We are a micro player in the GWOT under the guidance of the U.S.A. These guys were all alumni of the Afghan insurgency under Al Qaeda’s flag…
Why is the Philippines shy about revealing to the Filipino people this fact…
These alumni were off course using the insurgent areas in Mindanao as their safe haven. They were moving freely amongst all these insurgents and brigands…
Even before a warrant of arrest was issued for Marwan he was already a wanted man…
It would be important to note that the second great incubator for the Islamic Jihadists was the American invasion of Iraq and the Al Qaeda led insurgency in the Sunni areas in Iraq…
The alumni from this incubator now form the core of IS. In fact a lot of these jihadists were incarcerated by the U.S. and later released.
Fighting an insurgency is a messy business…They survive by operating in friendly territory…
Winning this kind of warfare requires emptying the areas of friendlies and this creates a massive upheaval of people… The destruction of the Indian tribes in the U.S. was the perfect model for this…Forced deportations and reservations…The British used this effectively during the communist insurgency in Malaysia…..
If anyone is thinking of war as a solution to this mess the fact that Mindanao borders the two main Muslim countries in S.E. Asia, draining the swamp becomes less of a solution….
The Philippines continues to be a mostly delusional society…We all deserve the government we have…
Aquino II himself regrets trusting his version of MI-6 all in the person of Napenas…His version of Men at war had tragic results…
We all share in his failure and it hurts at the mostly needless loss of so many lives…
Even the Americans now admit that the problems in Mindanao is one of banditry and no longer the GWOT…(Global War on Terror)…
In Iraq, the U.S. advisers are working along side Iran’s revolutionary guard in training and advising the war vs ISIS.
The very same revolutionary guard that is aiding Hizbollah in its fight vs Assad’s forces…
It is a mixed bag that is really confusing…
Sorry, I think the Philippines will continue for a long time, to be an area to secure as far as the GWOT is concerned.
Loved the article! Sharing my brief view on Grace Poe regarding her role in 2016:
Here’s why I want Sen. Grace Poe to be my vice president:
1) AT PRESENT, she currently enjoys high approval ratings both as a senator and as a presidentiable. Hurling her into the position prematurely might only do her more harm than good.
2) BUT, if she runs for VP, she expends her current political capital while not wagering it by assuming an extremely challenging – both technically and politically – position. Further, in running for VP (and certainly winning the position), she can spend the time learning, or even mastering both the political and technical aspects of the presidency, while bolstering her credentials for 2022. Now that’s a future to anticipate for the Philippines.
3) FOR NOW, she needs to support a president that does not stray far from her public persona, i.e. her undisputed integrity as a public official.
This is my unsolicited advice for her supporters who want her as our future president, and I think this track might just lead all of us to where we all want to be.
🙂
Thank you for putting in constructive terms what I was driving at. There is a very positive takeaway from this, for Grace Poe. And Mar Roxas. And the Philippines.
Here’s why I want Sen. Grace Poe to be my vice president:
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Right now reigning in the surveys, I think that is the last thing she is thinking, to run as a spare tire. However, I’m also of the opinion that both Mar and Binay’s camp would eventually try to woo her on their side.
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Should have recognized the style. 🙂
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Whose? 🙂
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JoeAm’s.
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My gut is telling me that Sen. Grace Poe will not run for President. She might run for VP though. NO PARTY is a very obvious reason. With UNA carrying BINAY vs LP carrying MAR. NP has no Presidential material. NP can continue their alliance with LP or carry Grace Poe as their standard bearer… In a 3-way fight “BINAY-ROXAS-POE” Binay will win. But ROXAS will win if NP maintains alliance with LP especially if Grace Poe runs as VP for Mar Roxas or will not run at all.
Trillanes or Cayetano can run as VP of Mar Roxas if NP/LP alliance has to be maintained intact come 2016 election… In desperation, Grace will support UNA or even run as VP of Binay. ESCUDERO is running out of choice since he also has no party and may end up supporting BINAY again…
My gut is telling me that Sen. Grace Poe will not run for President. She might run for VP though. NO PARTY is a very obvious reason.
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But you still need a party even if you’re running for VP right?
It is much easier to get a party if she runs for VP – – if you don’t have a party and you wish to run as President – that is quite a challenging task to get a party to back you up…
But when you are leading the surveys, I think parties will come to you instead of you coming to them. 🙂
Yes, very possible, but parties may not be ready to just give her the top post… If I am a party like NACIONALISTA I will entertain Grace Poe if she only run for VP – NP has no Presidentiable anyway – so it is better for NP to stay allied with LP, with that they have better chance of getting majority of Senate and House in 2016 – win or lose in Pres and VP…
If Grace runs I will view her as LACSON back in 2004 who divided the votes of FPJ…
True, parties may not be open on an idea of an outsider taking the top post. That is usually the response one may get from party members who have been nurturing their respective political ambition. However, the party also realizes that winnability is the paramount consideration for the party to stay alive and relevant. Without a strong and credible standard bearer the party would stand to be eaten alive by opponents come election time. It is really a delicate balance that most of the time settled by common sense: the party capitulates and go for whoever will deliver the win regardless if he/she is from within or outside the party.
In the case of Grace Poe, I’m sure all eyes are on her right now. The attention she is getting, however, is not only focus on the possibility of her running for the top post or the second to the top but also the possibility of her not running at all.
For me, if she pass 2016 the better.
The views are so insightful and really really interesting with facts to support. Among the masses here is what I’m seeing from the past elections. One month before the elections “leaders” prepare lists. Two weeks before the election people are checking which list they are on and wants to be on all. The night before election most get their sample ballots in envelops, they’re ready to vote, for those no sample ballot yet they wait.. So down below machinery and funding counts the most.
Grace Poe knows this. I agree Both Mar and Binay camps will woo her hence she will not open her cards and she will keep everyone guessing. Her senate hearings are a show, she’s playing i believe for the people. Very astute of her i think.
Personally she a very good candidate to get us there. But not now, she needs to get her machinery and get much needed executive experience. Mar/Poe tandem win-win for the country.
Amputuan has been released on a mission..
Good analysis.
Thanks, C M.
With the entry of the maverick from the south, the arena is phenomenally rearranging. Similar with the entry of Pacquiao in Las Vegas, it rearranged everything. I see a phenomenal Duterte conquest in 2016.
That could be, for sure.
Grace should just run for vice. to be honest she doesn’t have enough experience to lead our country and people only like her for her father. I still think she will be a good vice president though
I agree. She should run for the vice presidency with roxas as president. Running as president will give way to binay. And she will not become president even in 2022. Ms Poe is so selfish. She should think of the country and not her political ambition. I think that she is the eligitimate child of Marcos. Does she looked like Rosemary?
I don’t really care much about her parentage, Susan. But I do think her apparent inability to give of her self to for the well-being of the nation is indeed born of bad character. Maybe she’ll see the light, who knows. I think she is causing a lot of people to turn against her right now.
Let’s wait for the survey results in September. Maybe, just maybe, for the well-being of the nation, we might see the need for an alternative to defeat Binay—a Saving Grace so to speak. Let’s keep an open mind, keep our emotions in check, because reality bites.
Okie dokie.
Wow this is one of the best analysis I’ve seen so far regarding the 2016 presidential election. I hope Grace Poe will come across this message and consider it. 😎
Thanks, Ian. Welcome to the Society of Honor.
Wrong. Grace poe is number one in both the vice presidentiable and presidentiable surveys. She can beat binay if the race is just between them. Roxas will never win against binay. He has no charisma to win the masa over. He is married to someone hated both by the masa and the thinking class due to her arrogance. By endorsing roxas, pnoy becomes a righteous man because that shows he has delicadeza. Roxas moved aside in the last election for pnoy. So it is just right that pnoy and their party return the favor via endorsement. But endorsing him and supporting him are two different things. Pnoy and his party mates are definitely inlligent to see that roxas does not stand a chance against binay. If they give their support to him, it will all be for naught. It is the same as handing the crown to binay on a silver platter. Other parties not in alliance with binay will be too eager to adopt poe as their standard bearer. They will give her their full support since she is guaranteed to win over binay, therefore putting their party in control for the next six years and roxas’ partymates definitely want this too. They can always support poe “silently” via contributions, lending of logistics, using others as fronts like local officials, etc. A thinking party has already seen this. They are just waiting for the right time. Mr. Roxas, my advise to you is: just proceed as planned. You were already annointed, so go for it. Build your strength. Gather supporters. But, in the correct time, do another sacrifice. Give way to poe. Endorse her. Channel all your strength and supporters to poe. This will add to her votes. This will ensure a victory that binay will not be able to thwart via fraud, cheating, etc. Let the numbers be wide. Something that cannot be ignored so people will be convinced that poe indeed won via landslide. Poe and her allies in turn will look upon you with debt and trust. You will be given a position with responsibility and function that you will excel in. This will make a mark on people. This will pave the way for you to build on your reputation as a good public servant. This will in turn catapult you to the presidency in 2022. Mr. Roxas, do not fight in the 2016 war, you already lost that since as early as 2010. Your insistence will doom our country because your act will guarantee a binay presidency. Oftentimes, doing a good act for your country is more historic and heroic than just being the president. May God guide your kind heart and conscience to help our country.
Thanks for the perspective, SL. I don’t think Roxas will withdraw.
Grace Poe surely wins, if she runs for VP than being president. Being a lady to be head of a state will someway may put her to disadvantage and an advantage for Binay.
Interesting take, jun. I guess I figure the Philippines to be gender-blind as to selecting a president, and more focused on rather simple takes on character and competence. I’m sure Binay favors both Poe and Roxas in the race. Poe on the Roxas ticket would kill Binay and likely assure Poe of the Presidency in 2022.
One wonders why Grace Poe does not find that chain of events appealing.
. . . oh, yeah . . . Escudero . . .
one thing is fore sure, this article has convinced me that mar roxas is far more capable than grace poe. im not to saying grace is not capable at all because she also is. but the question remains: even if grace poe is taken out of the equation, can mar roxas pull-in the votes of the masses? because ive just asked a few people around concepcion marikina and they are voting for poe.
Yes, Sec. Roxas has to run a strong campaign to win. It’s still early.
Lot of the articles on this website has been very interesting. Surely it did influence me and convince me that Mar should be our next president. I benefited from his BPO project. I was once a waiter, then a BPO agent and now an IT. How much more if he becomes President?
I also like the article how Sal analyze the possible outcome of Mar being President in 2016.
From the turn of events Binay is doing the wrong things that affects his survey.
Hope Mar do the right things the right time. I believe they have strategy to do the things to win the Presidential race.
I’m really interested in the next coming months and how everyone provides insights in the turn of events. More power to “Society of Honor”
Kahit VP di ka pwede!!!! Ano ba ang kwalipikasyon mo? Anak ni FPJ at Susan Roces. Tanga to the bones!!!! 20 years in the US tapos babalik ka and expect to be president? Either you are insane or if you win, the Filipinos are insane and the country a basket case.
I like it when you call it that way, Ariel. What an incredible sense of entitlement, as if applause from the peanut gallery were sufficient qualification for the Philippine presidency.
So let’s put someone who has had an undistinguished and lackluster stint in dotc and dilg and has not done anything that merits being president other than being from LP and having the last name Roxas be president? Funny how we should make do with mediocrity when we should be looking for the best choice. I also want to point out that nobody knows how it’s like to be president until you start day 1.
Before yan din ang fear ko na baka nga parang binigay kay Binay ang panalo….pero with so many issues coming out and the responses coming from different sectors parang di na rin yata sya karapatdapat kahit maging VP…
Vic Baldemeca:
By this time I think nobody will care even if Poe don’t nod to ROXAS. She can run whatever position and it will not affect anymore the winnability of Roxas with the pouring support from all over the Philippines outside Philippines included.
My bookie Sal just winked. That’s been his take for some time, when Roxas went from 4% to 10% for doing nothing.
Kahit maglaban laban sila wala na silang pag asa, Si Binay ay kulelat na pero paano naman mananalo si Grce kay Mar ay nawala na ang biglang sikat niya because everybody is disgusted with everything in her.
Yes, I agree. I wrote her fb account that if you want binay out of the picture I strongly suggest roxas/poe tandem. It’ gonna be a bulls eye win. The votes may be divided if they seperate and no one is sure if either one of them wins. If she wants the change she is hoping for the filipino people, she has to let go cheezy at this very crucial time and decide what’s best for the country.
Well analyzed and said… i would like to raise a question to Sen Grace Poe – why the hell in a hurry, and what’s the catch? If you are truly concerned for the people’s welfare, please seek some advice from Atty Leni Robredo, she is wiser to know.
Superb question. What’s the rush? She is rather like an addict who craves popular attention. That’s the only thing I can figure. She got in with the wrong gang, I think.