Their own worst enemy: the Binays and the extreme left
Jejomar Binay [Photo credit: GMA News]
By extreme left, I mean communists and ideologues who believe the only path forward is destruction of the current form of democratic institutions. I do not mean those of liberal thought, or those who are genuinely interested in furthering the well-being of laboring Filipinos, inclusively, within the framework of current law.
A friend commented to me recently:
“Is it just my imagination, or has the wind been knocked out of communist groups’ sails?”
Yes it has.
It seems to me that the Binays and the extreme left have misread the situation that developed right after the Mamasapano incident when the Aquino Administration was being rabidly condemned for orchestrating the troubled raid. Public anger and frustration over the President’s failure to attend “the arriving of the coffins” flared and became a wave that the President’s political opponents climbed aboard. It was perfect for them. Leftists, political opponents, crooks, and crabs all piled on.
Then came the Veloso affair. They tried piling on again.
And in the doing, they ran headlong against a wall of incredulity. Of stark disbelief that the President, who was credited by Indonesian officials with having saved Mary Jane Veloso from the firing squad, would be held as the guilty party in a mess caused by drug running.
GABRIELA and other extremists, as well as the Binays, schmoozed up to Mama Veloso. Some egged her into spewing her rage at the wrong person. The President.
The public may be passionate, and may not follow politics closely, but they are not stupid.
The situation now is that the Binays and the extreme left have run out of credibility with an increasingly large share of the mainstream citizenry. They have pumped the credibility tank dry.
Well, actually, the Veloso affair was just the apex of their problem. Or more correctly the nadir. The bottom. The pits.
![Out of touch = whacko [Photo credit: Gabriella]](https://societyofhonor.files.wordpress.com/2015/05/gabriella.jpg)
Whacko = “out of touch, destructive” [Photo credit: Gabriella]
It has been coming for some time as both the Binays and extreme left previously tried stepping on the death of transgender Jeffery Laude to score political points. Then they stepped on 44 of the 67 deaths that took place at Mamasapano. Then they tried stepping on Mary Jane Veloso’s travails, and possible death.
Enough of that and such crude manipulations become rather obvious. And disgusting.
Both the Binays and the leftists have made it a habit to criticize any critic, slandering the CHARACTER of the critic, rather than dealing with the substantive points of the issue. So the Binays have slandered Secretary Roxas, the President, DOJ Secretary de Lima, Ombudman Morales . . . any enforcement agency head or spokesman from BIR to AMLC to COA, Senators Pimentel, Cayetano and Trillanes, Chief Justice Sereno, and lately Senators Guingona and Drilon (for authorizing arrests of people who failed to abide by Senate subpoenas) and Senator Poe (for being popular . . . er, uh . . . inexperienced).
The Binays . . . and the extreme left. . . have made a lot of enemies, because they are attacking upstanding people, not corrupt people. They are attacking people who are doing a difficult job earnestly, and often for little pay or reward.
Good people have friends, lots of them. Some in powerful positions. The Binays have insulted them all.
The Binay complaint of “political agenda” rings hollow when independent, non-political agencies such as the Ombudsman, COA and AMLC get pulled onto the list of institutions having the goal to take down Jejomar Binay’s presidential aspirations.
People come to understand that this is not a nice man. Not a nice family.
Nor are the extreme left who seek to manipulate and destroy rather than build.
So, with credibility shot, the Binays and the leftists have no weapons left. They have nothing positive to promote or say. And when they take shots at the character of their critics, it backfires and stains their own credibility.
The only field of play left open to both is the broad laboring masses, the bed of poverty and struggle, the people who live day to day, think in terms of the next meal, not politics, and hold that all politicians are corrupt. The groups making up the extreme left have little to work with here because their storm troopers are understood to be nothing more than extortionist gangsters.
But the Binays do have clout broadly across the nation. They have it at two levels:
- With the sister city LGU heads, some of whom likely receive payoffs for cuddling up with Makati’s boss. Their endorsements, intimidation and facilitation of vote-buying control large blocks of votes.
- With the laboring masses, who look fondly upon little gifts of candles and candy wrapped in the Binay label. Those who live such stripped down, bare lives are touched by such attentions.
And so we understand clearly where the 2016 election will be fought. It will be fought widely across the land. The prize will be the hearts and minds of those who are already committed to Jejomar Binay, because his gifts show he is earnest, he has been campaigning for years, and he promotes the idea that “those” politicians in Manila are the corrupt ones.
He expects to win by promoting division between economic classes, and between Manila and the rest of the nation.
Jejomar Binay will be president unless two things happen: (1) Sister City mayors are convinced it is in their best interest to advocate for a stable, law-abiding Philippines. (2) A candidate figures out how to overcome the Binays’ lavish attentions bestowed upon the poor.
The Vice President has been working the fertile fields for years. The candidate will have a few short months to change some minds that are not easy to move. I hope he . . . or she . . . is putting together a good game plan.
Addendum
For an elaboration of the real-world problems faced by the leftist groups, please refer to this Society of Honor post by By Ezekiel de Jesus (Mami Kawada Lover): “How the left lost me, and how I lost respect for GABRIELA”
The Society of Honor by Joe America 
Is there a problem with communism here? I will need to dig into that myself. The problem with europe is much more to do with the extreme right these days
Thanks for your posts.
The world media seem indifferent to the presidential build up here as usual. So as with communism here, need to get up to speed.
Communism’s goals per-se (an egalitarian society) aren’t wrong. It’s their methods (dictatorship of the proletariat, suppression of human rights, etc.) that are wrong. Communists are pretty Machiavellian, where they believe that their ends justify the means, but the problem is that many of those means are just not worth it. There’s a reason why the Soviet Union collapsed with glasnost.
A long history. Start with the end of WWII to the present. The central theme is overthrow of government, and the rebels still extort, kill and otherwise pursue their ideological ideals to the extreme. Most of the problem is in Northeast Mindanao, but there are other locales as well. The numbers have diminished, and internal strife has taken its toll. Beyond the communists, there are leftists groups active with protests of this and that, and a congressman or two.
There are only four serious presidential candidates left: Roxas, Poe, Duterte, Binay.
Binay may use Poe to split the Roxas vote, that is what some people suspect. Then the game plan might be to use Duterte and his Federalism Forum partners all over the country to split the Binay vote – the Federalism Forum has many cities from what I have read so far.
An even smarter game plan would be to have Leni Robredo as VP candidate and promise both Poe and Duterte roles in the LP cabinet in exchange for not running and supporting Ro-Ro…
That is all intriguing to think about. I think Poe’s ambitions have gotten larger, though. The Mamasapano hearings may have fed that. I don’t think Duterte will run. He likes control, he’s old, he’s under attack for promoting death squads. He doesn’t have the patience for a cabinet job, I think.
Hmmm. This got posted in Youtube just today…
Hmmmm, indeed.
Because of my Federalism article – and my curiosity about Duterte, I went into three Facebook groups. Now the eagle seems to be his symbol because the stuff his supporters post over there often contains it, some with an obviously Philippine eagle soaring high.
Tapang at malasakit could be his campaign slogan – it fits the picture I have of him so far. Courage and compassion is his image, tough on crime but there for the common people.
I’m slightly disappointed with this article Joe. You didn’t elaborate the true reason why the “extreme left” is losing support: the public has now noticed their double standards: they criticize Aquino, his allies, and the US at the soonest possible opportunity, sometimes the same day an issue comes out, but with Binay and China their reactions are “delayed” at best, and even “delayed” could be considered an understatement. Plus, in the rare instances that the militants do criticize Binay or China, they somehow find ways to place the blame on Aquino. They’ve even said at times that the allegations against Binay are “politically motivated”. Perhaps that’s true to some extent, but what do they call their allegations against Aquino then? Finally, smart Filipinos are finding the disturbing links between Binay and the leftists, and the leftists’ double standards on human rights (rally when an American is involved, or rally when left-leaning people are jailed or killed, while at the same time keeping silent on rapes by non-Americans and NPA killings).
I appreciate your elaboration. My main point was that both Binay and the extreme left have run out of options, and Binay’s main strength will soon come under attack. I should have referenced your article in mine, now that I think about it. Huge omission. I’ll do that, I think, as an addendum.
If I had a desired outcome from the article, it would be that leftists groups give up on the extremist stands and methods and try to actually help people within the system, and that the presidential candidates would go after the poorer classes aggressively, to take that strength away from Binay.
Sorry to disappoint. There will always be hits and misses until I rise to the level of perfection. 🙂
>If I had a desired outcome from the article, it would be that leftists groups give up on the extremist stands and methods and try to actually help people within the system
This. I’m aware that they actually do so at the moment (Kabataan and KATRIBU, among others, have outreach programs), but these are just sideshows and their true agenda is rallying. I also fear that during these outreach programs they could be brainwashing innocent people with their ideology. Hopefully my last sentence will be proven wrong, because I will support them all the way if they will just stick to uplifting the poor through more peaceful means.
Oh yeah, you spelled the women’s activist group wrong. It’s GABRIELA and not Gabriella.
Okay, thanks for the catch on that.
We got it, though… hehe…this from a typo expert…
Hahaha, you going into satire to beat MRP?
How I wish….No one could beat MRP’s absurd satires
HAHAHA, you are getting very good already . . . if not satire, very slick . . .
*******
There should be symbols of resistance against a Binay takeover.
Since you list 5 well-known members of the family, I suggest something similar to the Nazi salute but with the elbow bent and the right hand at chest height, the palm facing outward as if to say, “STOP!” Stop the Binays!
This should be adopted on the March Against Binay rally on June 2.
*****
Perfect.
Might be too white for some people. Make the man browner, or his nose flatter like mine.
History tidbit I read somewhere: one of the first things the Katipunan allegedly did was to chop of the noses of many Spanish-looking santos in churches..
Ha, talk to Edgar about that. It’s his salute. Mine would use the bird . . . but not Duterte’s.
But I regress . . .
🙂
I remember that gesture as, “Talk to the hand” or “Wax on, wax off.” 🙂
Joe,
Binay’s ratings have been sliding down steadily since the Blue Ribbon investigations began. If he does not arrest the slide, the race will be wide-open come the last quarter of this year.
His solid support base is around 20%, basically the minimum starting point for anybody who wants to run for president. Binay is now in the high twenties, that means he has dropped a lot. However, I think the resistance becomes stronger as one gets closer to one’s base. Those closest to the base are more difficult to sway than those who were among the supporters found in the higher percentages. So all hope is not lost.
When you point to sister cities, you are basically conceding the power of command votes. Well GMA relied on command votes for the 2007 and 2010 elections and that didn’t get her very far. The sister cities did not help the 2013 UNA senatorial slate either, except for Nancy.
Computerization has also undermined command votes because it eliminated dagdag-bawas an operation possible only with the collusion of local powerhouses, the commanders of votes.
As to the labor or masa class, I am optimistic that they are not as short sighted as we assume. Binay has lost support across the board. I think whatever support he has from them at this point is because information takes a little longer to reach them. No one will vote for a crook and so Binay must pump up the general perception that all politicians are crooks anyway. That way he can contrast himself to the other crooks as the crook that cares
I’m curious as to how advertising is carried out here. Are negative ads done? Can people other than candidates buy ad space and run attack ads? Binay is such a huge target for those.
I appreciate the optimistic view. My main worry now is a split of the “good” vote. If it were just Roxas against Binay, I think Binay would be toast.
I am with you on the notion of splitting of the votes, whether from one side or the other. Viewing this from a Game perspective, it will test the strategic/ tactical skills of the Players. Reminds one of the strategy and deception games of the Allies in WWII on the timing (in spite of bad weather) at Normandy and the deception game to land at Calais.
Indeed it does. Smoke and mirrors, inscrutable Filipinos . . .
You can’t openly attack the competition in ads, meaning you can’t mention their name, but you can insinuate. As when Marcos had radio spots about a housewife’s place being in the kitchen, or Cayetano’s TVC saying how things can be when a place isn’t corrupt.
But why do attack ads when you can get media personalities to do it for you? You even get the added bonus of the “contrary opinions” coming from “objective” third parties.
I see. Thanks for the explanation. So the attack ads have to be clever. That is doable, I think.
For the most part, Filipino politicians would like to be able to claim that they take the high road when it comes to campaigns. But there’s no stopping “supporters” who go “rogue” and go “off-message” with “independently-produced” materials maligning the competition. So, yes, people other than candidates can buy space and ad time.
I don’t know if the local ad industry’s self-regulating body already has jurisdiction over internet advertising so that’s another avenue for attack ads. It wouldn’t surprise me if a few such materials get “leaked” to social media and get “shared” among “friends”, at which point they then become “legitimate news stories” that can be picked up and get additional mileage thru “legit” news organizations.
In other news, there is now a world-wide shortage of quotation marks….
I love the little critters myself . . . the quotations marks, that is . . .
I have yet to see a negative campaign ad in the Philippines the way they are run in the US, Joe. Negative campaign ads are just too unpalatable for the Pinoy taste.
Most negative ads are done through social media. And then mainstream media picks it up. People buy print ad space to propagate negatives but I don’t think they do it on TV and radio. I recall radio ads during the ’86 snap elections where, without naming Cory, two people were discussing whether or not the nation could be entrusted to an inexperienced woman. Manolo Quezon posted a sample of those ’86 radio ads. But I don’t recall negative ads on TV or radio during the 2010 or 2013 elections. Maybe there is a Comelec ban against negative ads?
If you don’t know, we are lost! 🙂
I find comfort in your comment. I am one of those who give reasonable weight to the surveys of SWS and Pulse Asia.
Along with the absolute number, the trend is important. Also in reading the numbers, as the survey companies themselves always say, there is one-standard deviation error of about 3% which comes from a respondent sample size of about 1200.
Thus if A gets 24 and B gets 28, in a rather “extreme” correction, one can add 3 to B’s 24 getting 27; and subtract 3 from B’s 28 and get 25 — and so we may say A and B are at par. A less extreme variation is just vary one number, and let the other stay. Thus, varying A towards B, gives A = 27 against B=28; and conclude they are reasonably at par. Sorry, for expanding on an obvious.
I am looking forward to the survey results of SWS and PA for the second quarter which should come by mid-July. Let use see what happens.
I think Binay’s “clown car” of bumbling spokespersons (including daughters Nancy and Abigail) deserve special mention as contributors to his degrading credibility. JV Bautista’s “advice” today for Grace Poe not to side with the people who cheated her father even while they welcome the cheating’s mastermind to their fold is a doozy.
Sometimes when I watch TV commercials and see grown adults behaving quite foolishly, I wonder as to why they do that. Ah, the money. When I watch those clowns represent absolutely the worst in human values, I wonder what God they pray to, and why they do it. Lots of money. Seeking power. They are a despicable lot, and you are right, they contribute to the degrading credibility.
Can somebody please publish the names of all Makati’s sister cities and their mayors, so citizens of these cities will know which and who are the sister cities of their own sister Makati City.
The stronger the overall blogging community in the Philippines, the stronger the force for progressive change. It is an easy and also interesting way to engage for Philippine well-being.
Thanks Joe!
Sure, Bing. Kind of you to say so.
#BinayResign
#NoToBinay
#ImpeachBinay
#JailBinay https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=1106544799359150&set=p.1106544799359150&type=1&theater
Jejo should do a Budd Dwyer. It would be honorable. Pan to Binay children bawling. This way they’d clench the presidency, Senate and the Makati-nians (The Itch). As we know all those with itchy fingers are from Makati.
The Binays should not run 2016 so are the PDAF and DAP crooks. The Philippine Media is sooooo focused on Binays ONLY. They are silent on PDAF and DAP crooks who are also in the running for 2016. Obviously the Philippine Media wanted PDAF-DAP crooks to run 2016.
There were PDAF crooks, and a lot of them are in jail. Who are the DAP crooks? It was an economic program that routed money from corrupt programs to good programs, so it was actually “anti-corrupt”. That it violated the constitution was a technical matter. The SC agreed the program had good results.
Rogue elected officials have three things in common:
1. They are NOG-NOG. Deep brown sun-drenched skin. In short, they are COLOREDS
2. They are graduates from University of the Philippines
3. They struggle with English language, lingua franca of the Colored people
Their faces are all splashed in Philippine Media for all to see.
Those incorruptibles are fair-skin colonist white supremacists. THEY WERE “NEVER INVOLVED IN CORRUPTION OR BRIBING THE COLOREDS”
The Coloreds corruption is blamed on colonial mentality. If it was caused by the colonist, therefore, the colonists were corrupt. WHY IN THE WORLD THE CURRENT COLONIST ARE “HONEST” never involved in corruption or bribing the coloreds?
This is just beyond logic !!!!! A U.P.-mathematician would never ever able to answer. Of course, they know the answer! They just do not want to. They feign ignorance when they do know why!
SO FILIPINOS, PLEASE, STOP ACCUSING THE COLONIST FOR THE COLONIAL MENTALITY. Aboitiz to Zobels are just so honest. OK? Angs to Tys are also honest. They are not accused of any corrutpion. Mercado said it was only the Ayalas that did not give Binay condominium but they never called Ayala to the stand. Not even a picture of Ayala splashed in Inquirer. When White Supremacist say “NO, WE DID NOT” it means NO and worth more than a pile of Affidavits. Affidavits are only good for the coloreds.
ONLY THE NOG-NOG FILIPINOS ARE DISHONEST not because of colonial mentality because it runs in the coloreds blood.
Now, people, please do not accuse me of pro-Tisoy, Anti-Pinoy and pro-colonist.
I can Imagine Ayala before the Senate. Ayala walked in. All Honorable Senators stood up. When Ayala sits, The Honorable SEnators sit. There will be polite questioning. Gone will be the arrogance of Trillanes and his ilk. The arrogance are only for the COLOREDS. Trillanes own color. His own people’s color. The colonized color. Inquirer would be polite in their news report. No intriguing innuendoes. Since politeness, intrigue and innuendoes do not make money, THEY DO NOT REPORT IT AT ALL !!!
In the Philippines browned-skin Nog-Nog Filipinos discriminate their own. Despite their hatred for the colonists, Americans, Spaniards, Japanese and Chinese they adore them glorify them. They even wanted to look like them. Go to their countries to surrender and apply for re-colonization.
I did not do that. I am on Self-Exile.
“In the Philippines browned-skin Nog-Nog Filipinos discriminate their own. Despite their hatred for the colonists, Americans, Spaniards, Japanese and Chinese they adore them glorify them. They even wanted to look like them. GO TO THEIR COUNTRIES TO SURRENDER AND APPLY FOR RE-COLONIZATION.
I DID NOT DO THAT. I AM ON SELF-EXILE.” – Mariano Renato Pacifico
“I went to the former colonizer, USA, to surrender and apply for re-colonization so they can run my life like heaven than by Filipinos like Philippines.” – Mariano Renato Pacifico
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I guess those are some of your fame “satires” that have attracted a number of fans here.
🙊 🙊 🙊
Thank you, jameboy. If only sun-kissed browned skin Filipinos treat me like they treat white American; 2) there is meaningful dignified jobs with leaving wages ….
… I will end my exile.
Well, like all of us who write a lot, we crank out hits and misses. This one did not hit for me either. That just means Mariano is human after all. Contrary to what some of his critics claim.
I DID NOT DO THAT. I AM ON SELF-EXILE in the colonizer’s own land…. 🙊 🙊 🙊
Joe,
What a timely article, I’m engaged in a little tennis match with jameboy back at the ACLU thread, but instead of playing tennis (hit the ball back), he’s falling back on this,
“The only field of play left open to both is the broad laboring masses, the bed of poverty and struggle, the people who live day to day, think in terms of the next meal, not politics, and hold that all politicians are corrupt.”
I can only surmise that jameboy is of the same mind, I’ve only been here 1 month, so I don’t quite have a complete catalogue of everyone’s stance and contributions here–edgar lores and Irineo (among others) I’ve engaged with deeply. So we’ll see what this “leftist” mindset truly has to offer in the form of solutions and ideas.
I wasn’t exposed to the Left there, but I do remember talking to a Tausug academic expressing that he’d much rather deal with the Americans than the Philippine gov’t and the Left, and return to pre-1946 Moro-American relationship–he wanted the Sulu Sultanate (and the rest of Muslim Mindanao) & Sabah to be Guam, but eyeing statehood.
I don’t really get too involved in discussing local politics there, preferring instead to talk about institutions and military infrastructure (vis-a-vis China), but is there a push back from academia and/or the public there towards the Left’s seemingly empty rhetoric? Who’s pushing back?
A lot of the liberal/leftist thinking emerges from the universities, so there is not a lot of push-back from there. The newspapers always feature the protest marches in front the the Embassy, showing tight camera shots to make a diddly gathering seem like a huge international incident. But people seem to have stopped buying it. There is pushback against the media. The main pushback force is social media. Regular people with a brain, connected to each other.
ps, I’ve been following the tennis match. Jameboy is a very intelligent guy who sometimes plays with his intelligence, not unlike Mariano, to frustrate those he debates with. He’s had go-rounds with me, with Edgar, with you . . . probably others . . . and the pattern is the same. Diversions and sly aspersions. I like the guy, myself. We agree on a lot when he is dealing straight, and I stand in awe of his argumentative skills. He could work for Binay any day. (Jameboy, pardon me for talking about you. But you happen to have arisen as the subject.)
I don’t know why he can’t lose arguments. 🙂
LOL! I’ve also read Schopenhauer’s How to Win an Argument: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Art_of_Being_Right
But playing tennis is playing tennis, you don’t switch to playing dodge-ball in the middle of the match.
@LCpl_X Thank you for the link! Binay and his spokespersons must have read Schopenhauer and took all the “stratagems” to heart.
No problem, bauwow,
That’s an awesome read, applicable here and in every day life.
” I’m engaged in a little tennis match with jameboy…..”
========
In tennis, you serve and the other guy tries to return such service all in the effort to score against each other. We engaged in nothing like that.
What we had was buying and selling. You tried to sell and I did not buy. While you obviously want to ‘score’ against me in pushing to sell your idea I did not do the same by destroying what you are selling. I merely expressed the back burner priority situation of your idea not to score but to stop you on your sales talk.
For me, the tennis match was what I had with some ladies (at least the names – Juana, Mary, etc., suggests so) when Joe was away for vacation. It was a heated tennis match that ended in love. 😍
You can rationalize it all you want, jameboy, but you presented a position, one that you could have expounded & defended, but when push came to shove, you tucked tail and ran.
Let’s continue, since this Binay/Left article is related to our discussion on the ACLU, ie. shallow criticism that lack in-depth ideas when prodded further–which is Joe’s point of the Left’s lack of ideas.
“I merely expressed the back burner priority situation of your idea not to score but to stop you on your sales talk.”–jameboy
I’ll give you another shot at this, jameboy:
Can you expound on your above thoughts, re “back burner priority”? What priorities do you think we should focus on then? Are resources, warm bodies, really that meager that only so many solutions can be entertained at any given time?
https://joeam.com/2015/05/21/a-filipino-aclu-and-lawyering-in-the-philippines/#comment-122669
Anyone here watch House of Cards? To me, it emulates politics so well that it’s almost creepy. Politicians bartering behind closed doors, passing laws and compromising, not for the good of the nation but for their own political gains.
It’s like the only thing the citizens are good for is to cast votes and to be used as a mob against one politician or another! Can someone tell me that I’m just being crazy about this?
I haven’t seen House of Cards. There are two kinds of people in life. Those with compassion for all humans, especially the disadvantaged, and those with compassion mainly for themselves. The social institutions seem to reward the latter.
House of Cards (on Netflix) and Game of Thrones (on HBO) are similar. But I think Veep (also HBO) portrays politics here, probably also there, more accurately. Only there’s more at stake there.
“U.S. House Speaker Dennis Hastert indicted on bank-related charges” – ABCNews
http://abc7.com/news/former-speaker-of-the-house-dennis-hastert-indicted/746665/
I AM SHOCKED! It is like this news was bomb-dropped in my consciousness. There never was Senate investigation in public. No name-and-shame ala` The Binays. I THINK THE AMERICANS ARE DOING IT WRONG!
Republic Dennis Hastert should be named-and-shamed and flogged until he loses his DIGNITY. Instead they maintained his DIGNITY up to the last moment. Even dead-men-walking has to be fed low-calorie, sodium-free, fat-free, hormone-free until the U.S. Government fry them.
Wait-a-minute, USA is secular. Philippines is take-no-hostages Roman Catholic. There is something wrong in Catholicism for sure.
Now you’re cookin’.
The Philippine left has been on a self-destructive course since 1986, more or less. If they had a clue they could be a significant force: there are few countries on earth that present as fertile a field for left organizing, but the local left is just not up to the task. One has to wonder if they can read the writing that’s glowing on the wall when their natural audience is snapped up by the likes of Erap and Binay.
Binay, of course… well, like it or not (and I don’t), he is still set to win. He doesn’t need a majority, he just needs more than anyone else, and unless the anti-Binay forces can unite behind a single candidate that isn’t Roxas and craft a message that resonates with the masa, he will get more than anyone else.
Nothing against Roxas, but he’s not going to win.
Excellent point about the Philippines being a fertile field for the left to thrive, but they fail at it because they don’t get much beyond citing Mao and Marx. The terms “imperialists” and “capitalist pigs” aren’t, really, agricultural terms.
I don’t agree on Roxas. He is starting to get the endorsements that will get him off the dime, image wise. I do think that Binay is likely to win if the “good” ticket gets split between Poe, Roxas, and Lacson. But there is a long way to go yet.
Joe, is it possible for two people to have the same handle/account name for this blog? The above comment was under my account name (Percival) but I didn’t post such, nor any single comment in this particular blog topic. Could my account have been hacked?
The prior comment has your e-mail address but did not come from the same computer as this comment.
Where will the presidential candidates get their votes? I will speculate:
-Roxas—–from the A/B voters (and it’s not even solid)
-Binay——from his regular fans…the D/E voters.
-Duterte/Lacson——- from their regular fans, and it’s not much.
-Grace Poe———from the masa
–from the FPJ fans
–from the Binay’s fans
–from the Erap’s voters
–from the Marcos loyalists
–from the C/D/E voters.
This is not rocket science.
.
My bookie Sal stormed out in a huff because he thinks you insulted him. Myself, I’d agree with you, but the race has not started and you presume all is static. It is not, as we have seen in the collapse of Binay’s numbers. I do agree with you that Roxas will draw from A/B, and that the main battleground is C/D/E.
If Mar Roxas and Grace Poe fails to reach an agreement similar to that made between Noynoy and Mar in 2010, without a doubt, Jojo Binay will win the race for the presidency. If the good people failed to reach a compromise the nice people will take over Malacanang in 2016. That’s for sure. 🙈
I strongly believe that PNoy is moving heaven and earth to convince Grace Poe of the wisdom to slide down to VP in favor of Mar Roxas. The President, while out of it, remains to have a stake in the changing of the guard because of his interest to continue the policies and programs he started. Proof of that is Mar’s frequent line nowadays that he will continue PNoy’s Daang Matuwid kind of governance.
I don’t see Mar Roxas sliding down again to give way to Sen. Poe. It’s going to be my-way-or-the-highway for Mar this time. And I understand. Nobody wants to be a perennial spare tire. Second place for the second time is like committing suicide two times. The rope snapped so we repeat. 🙂 Not gonna happen.
Sen. Poe knew that if she decides to run for the presidency it will be Jojo Binay who will preside the first Cabinet meeting of the new president in 2016. She knows that going it by herself will only stabilize Binay’s number because the bulk of the voters for a Roxas-Poe tandem will be divided between them. And let’s not underestimate the polling power of former president Erap Estrada. He is the main reason why Binay, in spite of corruption allegation, is still afloat today. The solid Erap fan base remains on the side of Binay and from all indications will remain there until the last vote is counted in 2016. 🙊
My prognosis? Grace Poe will accept Mar’s offer and they will combine forces with an understanding that in 2022 Mar will go for Grace Poe. 😎
That well could be. Whatever the case, Senator Poe has split with VP Binay. She has joined Senators Pimentel, Cayetano and Trillanes to sign the draft Blue Ribbon Subcommittee report recommending plunder charges against the Binays. Her rationale was the existence of documentary proof without any contradicting testimony. In line with the theme of this blog, I suspect VP Binay made this choice easier for her by criticizing her lack of experience. He really is his own worst enemy. He believes kindness and entitlement run only one direction . . . toward him.
Nope.
Poe’s signature was huge.
Agree, Joe. That was indeed huge for Grace Poe. A huge political move that will benefit only Grace Poe and not the other presidential candidates. Whoever is/are her political handler/s they’re good.
Yes,
Her being the first outside of the Three Original Musketeers of the Senate is big.
She has made herself known. Now the question is to LP or not to LP?
She is adamant about independence. But she can hitch with LP. What is her calculation?
– If I run for President, I have to battle LP, and it will be a huge battle. Is my popularity that certain?
– If I accept the VP slot, I am a likely shoo-in for President, if Roxas does well. Will Roxas do well?
Too tough for me to call, and my booky Sal left for Palawan.
Will Roxas do well?
========
With Poe as his VP? 100% yes. 💣
Joe, you’re not sure Roxas as president will do well? Hmmmn, :).
jameboy, you’re 100% sure Roxas will do well if Poe is his VP. Without Poe, what?
I thought you guys are for Mar Roxas.
I’m an analyst and have analyzed people to the best of my ability, and put the analyses into hypothetical scenarios to make them more relevant for discussion. I have never stated a personal favorite. Someone else concluded that I was for Villar. A year ago, they would have said I was for Poe.
I have said that people may be making a mistake on reading Roxas if they go by the tabloid press, and pointed out that he has a lot going for him. I believe that to be true. And I have guessed about the relative popularity of the candidates, and done some “what ifs”. I have also said that the Philippines has several people who could be good presidents and named them.
I endorse no one.
ps, I was representing Poe’s likely thoughts, not my own.
Ah, okay, Joe, clear enough. So you’re not for Roxas. I believe you. I’m sorry for my wrong impression that you are for Roxas. I just found it strange that with all the good things you’ve written about the qualities of Mar Roxas you still found it “too tough for me to call” when faced with the question “Will Roxas do well?”.
I think Roxas would make a fine president. Not perfect. I think Poe would make a fine president. Not perfect. I think Cayetano would make a fine president. Not perfect. I think Trillanes . . . well, three capable people is enough for now. But there are more. The Philippines has a better roster of candidates than the US, which has a bunch of nut case trapos runnning. Scratch “trapos”. Insert ideologues.
As for Roxas, he has the character. He speaks well. He has little charisma with the poor . . . yet. My reservation is on the management side. Is he as determined and bossy as Aquino, or does he need to be liked, and therefore tending toward indecisive? I can’t get a reading of that because I can’t watch him work. I know his colleagues speak highly of him. A president needs a confident mind and thick skin.
By the way, I think Poe has a confident mind and a thick skin. But she has the managerial experience of a junior officer, unshaped by crisis or criticism.
Ah, okay, Joe, please let’s stop this already. I was wrong in my interpretation of what you said. I’m sorry.
Joe,
I too get confused by the way you write, but I just keep quiet and wait until someone asks for clarification, and if no one asks l will do it myself.
If that can happen to longtime readers like Bert and myself, what more to less frequent visitors.
One more thing,I don’t get why someone out there would even think we are sycophants, he even spelled it as psycophants, we are not yes men here,if we disagree we say so.
If you study the character of Gemini, or Meyers Brigs INFJ, you will find that people of my ilk are fluid and susceptible to new ideas and fields to plow. We see all sides of an argument, and on any given day, will take up one of them. And culturally, I am far from the Filipino need to state an argument and defend it, come hell or high water. The main criticism I get from people is “inconsistent” or “hypocrite” because of that shifty character. I genuinely believe different things on different days. Like most things, it is both a strength and a weakness.
I don’t mind being challenged on the inconsistencies because it helps me work out a proper position on an issue that may be driving me nuts because I am seeing all around it, but not taking a stand.
Thanks again for clarifying.
Joe was trying to illustrate the calculus that Poe is doing right now. The will Roxas do well should be treated as a question Grace Poe is asking herself.
Yes, I’m for Mar Roxas. If it’s a Jojo vs. Mar fight, it’s going to be a tall order for Mar. But the entry of Sen. Grace Poe in the picture change the whole equation. It’s for the better for Mar and worse for Binay because Jojo’s dominance has somewhat stalled by Poe’s resurgence. So, we have to consider that change.
With Poe, Mar’s chances is much, much better than without her. And without them together Binay will remain rock solid, with or without corruption charges. 👀
SBRC still needs 5 signatures.
Here is the list of the Senators who may or may not sign the draft:
1. Sergio Osmeña III
2. Bam Aquino
3. Cynthia Villar
4. Miriam Defensor Santiago
5. Lito Lapid
6. Francis Escudero
7. Pia Cayetano
8. Ferdinand Marcos, Jr.
9. Loren Legarda
10. Nancy Binay
11. JV Ejercito
12. Jinggoy Estrada
13. Gregorio Honasan
I think Nancy, Jinggoy, JV and probably Gringo will not sign it.
I am iffy about Bongbong, Lito and Miriam.
That leaves Bam, Sergio, Cynthia, Chiz, Pia and Loren.
It will be interesting to see who will and will not sign the draft.
Thanks, Juana. I was going to do something similar, but you’ve saved me that work, as your assessment is excellent. Given the mountain of evidence against Binay, and the clear abuse of authority (failure to hold legitimate bids), the signatures for me will say clearly who is for the Philippines as a righteous nation, and who is for the power of impunity, and themselves within it. In shorter words, patriots or snakes.
Bert, my brother and I would get into fistfights as youngsters (him winning all but one), and are still inclined to argue about this or that and endlessly ridicule each other, but we are bound the way families are. No different here.
Yes. “Blood is thicker than water” is universal. That is why I think Pia will sign and Allan will be a factor in her decision. Poe signed so Chiz will (close friends = family). Cynthia and her hubby belongs to NP (so are Cayetano and Trillanes; political party members = family).
If the Senate cannot see who Binay is, then there is little hope for an honorable Philippines.
Wow, it took 10 months for the senate committee to figure out Binay’s flawed character while everyone I know finds Binay already guilty of plunder.
Majority of the people do not understand the due process of the law. No amount of education via radio, TV and other media outlets can change the people’s ignorance to the law at the present time. To educate them, quickly, the best strategy is to charge Binay of plunder and put him behind bars. The senate committee must have the moral consensus to do so in a timely manner. A delayed decision from the committee is not acceptable…. ( to me) 🙂
It took a long time, but for us following, the hearings were priceless. The efforts of the Subcommittee were blocked and denigrated in every way possible. Missing witnesses, accusations of political attack, even a raid on the Senate chambers by Binay’s arrogant henchmen. Best television imaginable. The good guys stuck with it. We got the Ombudsman’s rulings a few weeks ago, again fought by the Binays. It took the committee three hearings to figure out Binay, and the rest of the months were dedicated to uncovering the labyrinth of deceits and scurrilous deeds, from the high school to the hacienda to the Boy Scouts. I have a hard time being critical of such stalwart civic servants.
The Binays are in denial by refusing to accept the truth that he can no longer be President. His financial assets must remain frozen in the bank. The court should further demand from the Binays proof of the origin of his assets. There’s sufficient evidence that it exceeds what could have been lawfully acquired..
An accounting expert should be able to draft this document to the senate committee as hard evidence. There must be emphasis on Binays “unexplained wealth ” during the senate hearing.
the burden of proof should have been upon Binay to prove his unexplained wealth. Sounds like the senate committee bears the burden of proof. lol
The Senate turned information over to the Ombudsman, and the AMLC got involved because of evidence presented. That the Binays presented no material evidence to refute the charges is now coming back at them in Senator Poe’s break from Jejomar Binay (the godfather of one of her children) and signing of the Senate subcommittee’s recommended plunder complaint against the VP. Multiple agencies are involved and gathering information. The heat is definitely being applied, within the laws and rules allowed.
“His financial assets must remain frozen…”
I do not think AMLC found all the dummies, judging by Binay’s extravagance in buying TV ads.
I think the AMLC is still digging. It isn’t over yet. I’m looking at COMELEC rules now and I don’t think they will be of any help whatsoever.
last year , Mercado presented to the senate committee Binays other foreign / dollar accounts ( owned in 1994-1998). AMLC should have been involved from the early stages of this investigation. Also, the 90’s account were not reflected on Binays SALN. Has it been audited? The bank accounts that are currently frozen are only for transactions between 2008 to 2014. there must also another task force working on asset recovery ( returning this money from corruption to the people)
Where’s the audit report on Binays financial statement during the 90’s? So no audit? That could be another reason why Binay is still capable of playing games( showing no remorse) . government agencies should really work harder as a team to put maximum pressure to the Binays- rendering the Binays incapable of financing his candidacy.
On a rational level the result is clear. Two competing philosophies, consequentialism and deontological ethics, the easiest always wins.
Consequentialism is the simplest, the end justifies the means. Some might think: “Binay shares his “blessings”: cake, free everything, money to attend rallies and to vote, how he finances all this, bahalna, and all politicians are corrupt anyhow. Did you get anything from Trilianes or any of the DAP and PDAF thieves, except a lot of noise and posturing?” the most basic logic. And in a similar way: “Duterte has the safest city, the criminal thieves and pushers stealing our money are gone, and who cares how?”
Deontological ethics, actions based on the virtuous character of the agent, are a luxury for class A and B people: “Roxas is the most honest and peaceful man, so he should be our president.” People with these ethical considerations are the exception, so Roxas has no chance. Except….
Filipinos do not always vote 100% rational, emotions play a big part in every decision. So if Roxas wants to have a chance he will have to build on / invent major emotional situations. Just the bare minimum is to team up with Pacquiao and be snapped with Corina in a very romantic situation and while weeping at the grave of a Mamasapano victim promise to take revenge and win Filipinos got talent and bring home Velasco.
Very wise advice to Mr. Roxas, with a nice slice of mischievous humor as punctuation.
I wonder if Mar Roxas can sing.
he can dance: https://www.facebook.com/873153122741239/videos/902224489834102/
🙂
In Bertolt Brecht’s Threepenny Opera – written during the Weimar Republic, a time in Germany very similar in many ways to the present Philippines with enormous poverty, representatives of the old regime all over the place, a tabloid press, easily roused people, many small political parties and a justice system with some very strange decisions – the gangster McHeath says: “First we’ll eat, then we’ll have morality”. Consequentialism.
It is like Duterte who calls his human rights critics hypocrites and blasts de Lima because gangsters get out of jail easily as a response to her trying to go after him – the story goes back to the time she was CHR – I understand his point of view, even if it may be alien to us, because if one knows how Davao was 30 years ago with NPA sparrow units, right-wing death squads of the Alsa Masa and everything in between especiall in the port area of Agdao aka Nicaragdao, one knows the difference and for Duterte the results count.
Of what use are ethics if I am poor and have to scrounge for a living? And besides, I will never forget what my English brother-in-law once told me – he is from a working-class cockney family that made its way up in three generations from his grandfather, slum-dweller in North London to him who was MTV and is a trendscout now – that people who have experienced hunger will always have a deep scar within them and will always act like they are hungry even when they are not. That explains Imelda, that explains the Binays.
The Filipino side of my family also had its struggle towards a better life, so I understand the attitudes and even have residues of these attitudes myself I must guard against always. It is easy for people who do NOT know these situations to judge and condemn. It is better to find ways to avoid people having to grow up in situations of hunger and/or oppression. Then automatically gangster bosses like Binay and Punishers like Duterte will no longer be needed or admired. Now Duterte’s supporters think rationally, not emotionally for sure… But they exist because they feel that no one else will address their concerns in this life.
Now if Mar Roxas manages to sell what he has accomplished – like improving the PNP – and convince the people he will continue to work on solutions that bring more peace and order, strengthen the rule of law and give people real opportunities, then I think he does NOT have to make any bullshit drama for fools. Filipinos are starting to think more, even if it is in a simple, immediate way – because their concerns are mostly simple and immediate! Duterte talks to them like one talks to adults, CANA (see my civic society blog article) also does, Mindanews also does. Binay talks to them like children or beggars, insults them. A candidate that underestimates the Filipino – many may be simple, but they are not stupid.
“….then I think he does NOT have to make any bullshit drama for fools. “—Irineo on Mar Roxas
Exactly the problem of Mar Roxas. He did make a number of that ‘bullshit drama for fools’ in the past that resulted to the loss of his credibility to the voting public and still suffering from it.
The chismis I am hearing is that if Poe goes for VP, Trillanes will withraw.
As for Leni Robredo is she will not allow the Villafuertes to take her seat in congress.
Those are just chismis,hit or miss.
Roxas must never be underestimated,on second thought let him be underestimated.
I like the 18 year strategy(mentioned in an earlier post) and I do wish Leni starts finding a successor in Naga..
Very interesting tidbits of information, and wholesome hopes.
Lets pause our binay and left bashing and read this hyperbole ful post that made my room dusty.
http://www.rappler.com/thought-leaders/94664-rohingya-boat-people-philippines
Wow. I’m speechless. The heart of the Filipino.
We have been doing it since World War II.(from the Jews, Russians,etc)
Accept 3,000 and 300,000 and more will come. I have no heart for this. My heart is for the Filipinos who are starving also.
I’m reminded of fiestas here, where there is always a plate for those who stop by. No invitation is required.
I think it was Profesoras Carmen Guerrero-Nakpil and Doreen Fernandez – whose stuff about Filipino food I mentioned in the ACLU thread, and who are the most insightful writers on Filipino culture that I know of – who wrote something like this:
Filipino culture is one of tropical abundance, which is why it knows no foresight. Our ancestors had more than enough, welcoming even those who were to conquer them. Another writer (male of course) wrote, somewhat sarcastically, something like this: imagine how the Spaniards who first came to the Visayas must have smelled after crossing the Pacific. Yet the Filipinos welcomed them, not knowing their plans…
One has to decide if the world is made up of humans, each equal, or if there are qualities that put some below others. Is a starving foreigner then worth less than a starving Filipino? NIMBY. No beggars in my back yard. Or does one see desperation and find a way. The Philippines stood up when other nations would not. The nation displayed amazing courage, amazing compassion. Maybe the Philippines is so close to desperation that it is easier to recognize what it is. If it were Filipinos who climbed on a boat to try to get elsewhere, say driven to that by a massive natural disaster, no food, no water, we would expect other nations to do . . . what, exactly?
The world came to our aid during disasters, it is pay back time. We must have ships good for disaster relief , so when the time comes our nearby neighbors need help, will be ready to give back.
Yolanda was a horror, and nation after nation stepped up and chipped in. I drove to Ormoc a few weeks after the storm and could not get a hotel room because the International Red Cross had booked the whole hotel. The place was crawling with white guys. Fleets of international workers and Filipinos set out to repair the electrical grid by Christmas. It was incredible what was going on. Where did all the poles and wire and tin for new roofs come from? Anyone who says the government was not performing is nuts or blind or highly political or have hearts of stone. Schools were back in session quickly, many operating from tin huts given by international donors. The kids were taken care of first. We are one world, in time of need.
Here is a simple logic, Joe. It may suck to you but my logic just the same. If the members of your family are starving and your neighbors who are starving also are trying to enter your house to take part of what meager resources available in your house, are you going to welcome them and let them stay in your house? If your answer is yes, then I think and I accept that you are more human than I am.
Naalok ka na kumain ng taong mukhang kulang pa sa kanya ang kinakain nya?Alam ko formality lang sabihing kain tayo. Formality nga lang ba ito ng mga pinoy o mali ako.
During disasters, I am glad to hear that even those with not enough money give and chip in.
karl, magkaiba tayo ng sinasabi. Iba naman iyong inalok mo ang taong nagugutom na halika, kain ka, kaysa doon sa halika dito ka na sa amin dahil ayaw kang patuluyin ng aking kapitbahay sa bahay nila.
Mali ba?
Hindi naman mali.
Dito sa Europe, pinag-uusapan ang isang distribution quota para sa mga itim na dumarating sa barko, para hindi na kawawa ang Spain at Italy sa dami ng dumarating.
Germany medyo nahihirapan na rin, dahil maraming na-aatract sa benefits dito. Tsaka ginagawa silang drug smuggler at drug dealer ng mga iba-ibang sindikato, siyempre kung saan may pera ang tao marami ring may pambili ng droga, mga refugee sinisilaw sa pera.
Sorry to butt in guys, but I just can’t resist it. if the Rohingya boat people were only voters, Binay could have sent them cakes and promise them a roof above their heads. He is probably re thinking his strategy since Grace Poe officially opposes him. The fact that no one wants to be his VP, his planned alliance with GMA smells of his desperation.
Bert, I don’t know if you misunderstood, but it’s not going to be a permanent arrangement. All those times when we welcomed refugees, they were eventually resettled in other countries willing to take them. That’s why we don’t have a huge population of German Jews, White Russians, and Vietnamese. And I doubt we shoulder all the cost of feeding and housing them. The UN, Red Cross, Red Crescent (since the Rohingya are Muslims) and other friends would probably help, as they have in the past.
Bauwow,
A few days ago the Binay camp adviced Grace to abandon LP because they cheated her father and now the alliance with Lakas-CMD.
Don’t know if I will laugh,cry,shake my head or just slap my forehead.
It’s okay, Lilit, I know where you’re coming from. My point is if we are going to have an official government policy of accepting those boat people and have them stay here in the Philippines, there’s bound to be an avalanche of them coming to the country in the future that could cause serious problems to us just like what are happening to some European countries and in other parts of the world being inundated with the influx of boat people. We should be learning from the experiences of those countries.
But, it’s alright, Lilit. You, Joe, and karl have the pusong mamon for those boat people. Me, my heart is for my country and my people. It’s just a matter of inclination and I hope you guys won’t take it too much against me. Cheers.
All those times when we welcomed refugees, they were eventually resettled in other countries willing to take them. That’s why we don’t have a huge population of German Jews, White Russians, and Vietnamese. And I doubt we shoulder all the cost of feeding and housing them. The UN, Red Cross, Red Crescent (since the Rohingya are Muslims) and other friends would probably help, as they have in the past. – Lilit Trinidad
========
That is true. There is an apparatus tasked to address that problem. It’s not merely a case of starving people entering your house its a humanitarian issue requiring international cooperation and coordination.
With all the hard evidence accumulated, Binay is going to jail.
Bert, Joe, jameboy, giancarloangulo:
I followed the thread started by Bert and the subsequent exchange on Roxas, Poe, and Duterte and I just want to comment on the journey of Poe from 10 months ago when the Pimentel’s BR Subcommittee on the Makati Anomaly started its hearings, the latest being the 21st hearing.
It is easy to say this now, after the fact, but it is plausible that:
– Poe 10 months ago and the weeks and months following, together with his trusted adviser/ handler were ahead of us, and plotted the journey that took us to today?
– Poe must have weighed the utang-na-loob factor of the Filipino, not only with Binay but Erap, but decided shrewdly like a fast-learner politician to keep her mouth shut on criticisms about Binay to get more facts. No need to make enemies early
– Meantime the SWS/ Pulse Asia survey made a steady climb (with some swings of course, most probably statistical errors) of her rating; and a steady decline of Binays; with the ratings of the others being watched too
– She has made her standard smooth statement of having to get more experience and how she can really help the country with variations of course of the mantra done very well because of her intelligence and command of the language and expert delivery, in both English and Pilipino
– When the SWS/PA showed near parity especially the +/- 3% error associated with the numbers, her plan must have taken a sharp polishing, some changes and timely implementation
– Meantime P-noy, Mar, and LP have their own strategies which happen to intersect with those of Poe/ Advisers and the events rolled very fast indeed with Binay and Advisers accelerating if further with very public show of criticisms of Poe and the subsequent biting, well-thought, well-articulate riposte of Poe
– The latest is her being the fourth to sign the Draft Report of Pimentel’s BR Subcommitte (aside from the Subcom members — Pimentel, Cayetano, Trillanes) on the Makati Anomalies and the statement to go along with
the signature, again well-thought, well-articulated, a mortal wound to any Binay-Poe combination
(Disclosure: I evolved from one being a great fan to dislike to a fan again — though a watchful, more critical fan this time.)
– Poe 10 months ago and the weeks and months following, together with his trusted adviser/ handler were ahead of us, and plotted the journey that took us to today?
========
I”m not ready to acknowledge any expertise or savviness on Sen. Poe’s advisers or whoever they are for even Ms. Poe will admit that everything that happened and is happening with her was brought about by being the daughter of the much beloved FPJ. Remove him from the story we don’t have Grace Poe. Without Cory there wouldn’t be Noynoy. Without Erap, no Jinggoy; without Jojo, no Junjun, Nancy and Abigail. So is with Bongbong, Alan, Bong, Bam, etc.
– Poe must have weighed the utang-na-loob factor of the Filipino, not only with Binay but Erap, but decided shrewdly like a fast-learner politician to keep her mouth shut on criticisms about Binay to get more facts. No need to make enemies early.
========
On her supposed ‘silence’ on Binay, I never bought it even for a second. Silence sometimes is wisdom. Why will she jumped on the bandwagon she has no business with? She’s not pro-Binay why will her silence be taken against her? What’s important was she never even lifted a pinky to even imply she was defending Binay then and now.
On surveys, Jojo Binay’s decline is expected. I personally don’t see his rating improving any longer. He has reached the zenith and it’s all the way down from hereon. But not down the drain. He might still maintain his distance from Mar Roxas but the possibility of Sen. Poe overtaking him is getting real by the day.
And that’s the crux of the matter. Will overtaking Binay to number one cement or change, as the case maybe, Sen. Poe’s view in running for the presidency? If she sees the avalanche in her favor, will Sen. Poe finally decide to turn down the VP offer from Mar and go with it and run for president?
I hope not. 👀
Thanks for sharing a different view. But I would like to comment on this thought:
On her supposed ‘silence’ on Binay, I never bought it even for a second. Silence sometimes is wisdom. Why will she jumped on the bandwagon she has no business with? She’s not pro-Binay why will her silence be taken against her? What’s important was she never even lifted a pinky to even imply she was defending Binay then and now.
=============
Not unusual for a senator-politician, and Poe is one, to aspire for a higher national office such as the Presidency. Jumping on that wagon is thus not unusual; she has the same business to jump in, as others, if she wants to. Votes — needed to continue to be a Senator or to pursue the Presidency — is the politician’s currency. Some potential votes from Binay’s currency are votes as valuable as the votes from her base of supporters. Why lose that additional currency not having accumulated some facts to reasonably make her move, the right timing being a politician’s one favorite tool. Hence the silence then and I am not at all taking that against her. It is rather wisdom or it is being politically shrewd, being a fast-learner, with assistance from some shrewd adviser, I still believe.
I am not yet on the “enemy of my enemy is my friend path”,still Roxas Trillanes, I will go Roxas Poe if Trillanes withraws.If Poe Roxas and Trillanes stays…..I don’t know yet.
for the waiting time.. a little comic relief… some Filipino humor:
Our saving grace — Filipino humor. Nice posters, Irineo.
lol,
Thanks – sa Internet ko lang napulot iyan. Dahil alam kong Chinoy ka, FILIPINO of Chinese origin, heto ang naisip kong bagong screening procedure to identify Mainland Chinese spies in the Philippines. Dapat pag-isipan ng NICA kung gagamitin ito:
1. Put them into an interrogation room, FBI-style.
2. Have someone tell them corny jokes for one hour.
3. Those who laugh or bear it with dignity are clearly Filipino.
4. Those who don’t laugh are either tired Filipinos, well-trained mainland Chinese, or Filipino businessmen of Chinese origin who are thinking of how much money they could have earned in that hour… subject them to additional screening.
5. Those who make a really angry face with very small eyes are mainland Chinese spies – deport immediately, or trade them for Filipino drug mules facing execution in China.
As for Filipinos with Latin origins, there is a joke I have heard from Fil-Ams:
How do you distinguish a young Filipino from a Latino? Simple, you say “que puto” to him.
The Latino will get mad at you, the Pinoy will say “Yo man, why you callin’ me a bread”?
Mar-Poe are moderates
Big D’s are extremists
Teodoro-Trillanes? Naaaaah …. They are constitutional terrorists.
Heeeey, where are The Binays? They neither fall in moderate and extremist ….
I’m not yet a resurrected fan because I am at the stage of wariness rather than watchfulness, but I am happy that she made the break with Binay. Now we simply have to get her to say she will not pardon plunderers. I think she is not a crook, but has the peculiar wiliness of a master politician, or trapo. I also think her executive skills are mediocre, although she has potential to develop them. The Mamasapano report was rather superficial, I think. She would make a fine president, I suspect. As would Roxas.
I think the Philippines will be in good hands in 2016 so long as Poe and Roxas don’t split the vote. It would be a good campaign if we had Binay in jail and Poe and Roxas working for the public’s backing. The campaign would be a filter of competence, in a way.
I agree, especially on the note about “wiliness of a master politician, or trapo.” And also the note on “her executive skills are mediocre, although she has potential to develop them.
She is intelligent and a fast-learner. Now only if those are used mostly for the country and she does not evolve into a 24-carat trapo.
Yep. I think she would work for the country. Her husband is a decent guy, which is a testimony to her values, too. She has something to prove, for her father, as does President Aquino. I do think she can be vindictive (President Aquino can, too), and will engage people like Escudero in her government. He to me is pure trapo. So there is likely to be a trapo side to her. But not a thieving side. It is politics, after all.
ELECTION IS HEATING UP!
Poe signed off Binay
Poe became Foe
Friends became Foes
Poe Foes became Friends
Poe Friends became Foes
Fee Fi Poe Fun
Poe smells the air of election time
Binay Alive, or must he dead
Poe’ll grind his bones to make her win
Yes, the grinding has begun. Poe is good at it. Purisima ticked her off by not attending her committee meeting, “showing her up”. He was ground to dust. Binay then made the mistake of calling her too inexperienced (whilst out the other side of his face trying to recruit her as his VP). She is going to do a rumba on him wearing high heels. It is not going to be pretty.
The rhyme of “time” and “fun” is very slick.
“Hell hath no fury like a woman scorned.” 🙂
Right. We are having some fun here, aren’t we.
About Poe’s riposte to Binay, we hope she balances things and not turn vengeful — this is something I will be on the watch for. JoeAm mentioned her handling of Purisima, a shade of this trait.
Your scholarly lucubrations are wonderfully written in elegant prose approaching the literary, interspersed with mellifluous logic interwoven into facts and packaged in an interesting conversational style, all observing perfect grammar and syntax. I wonder who you are, but I can sense you are very-highly educated, perhaps with a doctorate degree , and a member of the academe, current or former. Keep it up. We are mesmerized by the profound cogitations of a self-effacing expatriate. God bless.
Gadzooks, Dan. Nice vocabulary yourself. I have a Master’s degree and 30 years of project/analytical work for a large corporation. I’ve done a good deal of reading and a lot of writing, including fiction. Words are great fun.
Oh dear, Joe! Ho hum. 🙂 🙂 Tell us something we don’t know, already.
Ha. Numbers are great fun, too! You can write fictions with them.
Lucubrations! Does that mean you are also good with automotive engines Uncle Joe?
I can’t tell a carburetor from a distributor. But I know San Mig is great beer.
I’m sorry to correct you, bauwow, but I think that lucubrations is more related to locomotive engines rather than to automotive. Utubration could be it.
lucumutive and utumutive engines need this so no abrasion
Thank you for the corrections Bert! I guess another word for a mechanic is an utubrationist.
Some good news for Filipinos, bad news for UNA:
http://opinion.inquirer.net/85328/cause-for-celebration
Continue the fight against corruption! Against Binay! Against UNA!
Transparency International is indeed a good gauge of the nation’s progress. 2016 is a critical point. Continue the progress or slide backward?
“If she sees the avalanche in her favor, will Sen. Poe finally decide to turn down the VP offer from Mar and go with it and run for president?
I hope not. 👀”—jameboy
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jameboy,
If Grace Poe sees the avalanche in her favor against Binay and Roxas, why, of course she won’t settle for the VP. Would you if you’re in her place? An avalanche could mean a landslide and so very hard to resist. And so your hope is a hopeless case. If there is an avalanche, you will have no other option but to go with the force of the gravity, or be buried under the rubble, :).
Bert,
Would I resist the presidency if the avalanche is in my favor? Why not? Erap and Noli Boy De Castro did it. Remember those two very popular figures who opted to run as VP in spite of the survey showing them topping the race for the presidency? Or you’re not aware of it? 👳
No, jameboy, I’m not aware of it. But now I’m aware that you seems to be projecting yourself as in the same mold as that of Erap’s and Noli Boy’s. That’s quite interesting.
I’m projecting myself as in the mold of Erap and Noli? That’s not ‘quite interesting’ that’s shocking to read that you made it as a ‘me’ issue when the fact was I’m just following what you said. Didn’t you ask me this?
“If Grace Poe sees the avalanche in her favor against Binay and Roxas, why, of course she won’t settle for the VP. WOULD YOU IF YOU’RE IN HER PLACE?” – Bert
So, I answered your hypothetical question with the same and share something that you admitted you’re not aware of. And that’s what quite interesting, that a simple fact in recent history escaped you. So, you see my hope is not really that hopeless, lol! 😏
All-time high personal optimism. Last Tuesday (5/26/2015), SWS reported that 42 percent of Filipino adults, as surveyed nationwide in March 2015, expect their personal quality of life (QOL) to improve in the next 12 months, and only 5 percent expect it to worsen. (The balance from 100 percent expect their QOL to remain the same.) The implied net personal optimism rate of +37 is the highest in survey history since 1984. Mahar Mangahas
I tell you, the Philippines is about to emerge from decades of confusion and corruption. If 2016 is done right.
half a century… it has been long enough.
A SIMPLISTIC ARGUMENT
In the 2016 Presidential Election, winnability is so important a factor, but so naively obvious that I have to start by asking your indulgence because you may feel insulted by my introducing it. But please indulge me a little bit. I start with 3 propositions as my premisses.
Premisses
1. The election of Binay to the 2016 Presidency is a monumental disaster for the country.
2. There are Candidates, C1, C2, C3 and C4, each one of whom are much better for the country.
3. There is AT LEAST one of the four who is likely to get more votes than Binay.
QUESTION: How does one choose among the four?
I will answer that by the ODD PROCEDURE of complicating the situation first. Suppose we have a reasonable degree of confidence in valuing the four and their probability of getting more votes than Binay. Let these values be V1, V2, V3 and V4; and their corresponding probabilities of getting more votes be P1, P2, P3 and P4. A product of corresponding V’s and P’s is a measure of choice index.
Let me illustrate:
—–V—–P—–VP
C1–60–20%–12
C2–40–40%–16
C3–80–30%–24
C4–90–10%–09
Here, we have Candidate C4 assessed with a Value of 90 based on Integrity, Competence, Experience, Achievement and Age. On the other hand we have C2 who is valued as 40 on the same measure. C4 is assessed to have only a 10% probability of exceeding the votes of Binay, whereas C2 has the probability of 40% of exceeding the votes of Binay. Correspondingly, the VP index of C4 and C2 are 9 and 16 respectively.
There is the Candidate C3 whose VP index is 24. The problem is that although this index (VP product) for C3 is higher at 24 than C2 at 16, the probability of exceeding Binay’s votes is lower for C3 (30%) compared to that of C2 (40%).
ONE CONCLUSION:
We may not be getting the best value, PV index in C2 (value 40, PV index 16) compared to C3 (value 80, PV index 24) but since the probability of exceeding Binay’s vote by C2 (40%) is higher than C3 (30%), TO INSURE that we do not take UNNECESSARY RISK ELECTING BINAY, we MAY just opt to put our votes on C2 — the one with the assessed highest probability of exceeding Binay’s electoral votes.
The qualitative problem we have with, say, Duterte, Roxas or Poe is reasonably captured, in spirit, behind the numerology scheme I described above.
I am pretty sure I have succeeded in mostly lulling my readers to sleep or making them more confused. If so, I beg the indulgence of Joe, the Blog owner and the readers. (Joe, I hope you don’t ban or suspend me for this.)
Let me put illustrative names:
—————V—P—-VP
Duterte—-60–20%–12
Poe——–40–40%–16
Roxas—–80–30%–24
X–———-90–10%–09
You are hereby . . . . promoted to the esteemed position of Society Master of Digital Prestidigitation.
C4 is Roxas, C3 is Poe, C2 is Duterte, and C1 is Lacson. You are going with Duterte, to beat Binay and fatten the fish of Manila Bay!
I did this before looking at your answer. It shows we have a different assessment of Poe’s and Duterte’s character.
Joe, You supply the value judgement; I supply the prob numbers. Try this new numbers from the magician — he had quite a drink when he gave that trick above. I had a good mind to fire him.
————–V—-P—–VP
Lacson—-60–10%–06
Duterte— 40–25%–10
Poe——–80–35%–28
Roxas——90–30%–27
My bookie Sal is quite impressed with your unnamed magician’s moxie. He says that he, personally, would put the P numbers as follows: Lacson 5, Duterte 30, Poe 40, Roxas 25. He says the character profile is perfect.
The result is the same. Poe is tops with Roxas a strong second.
I say, let us give a bottle of beer each to Sal and my magician friend.
🙂 🙂 🙂
Outside of this fool of a magician who plays with numbers, I suppose the message is saner people like those in this society and Raissa’ Blog should continue to push for the highest value candidate who still has a win possibility and not put the winnability element on the pedestal. But in the end if one considers my 3-element premise, especially element 1, come weeks before election, a choice of second best or even third best is the thing to consider — so the mag 8 political disaster does not come about.
I heard Davao markets are now famous for its abundance of fat fish harvested from the Davao Gulf. Duterte could be a good president. Metro Manila has a perennial problem of fat fish supply so I guess I should be going for that extrapolations done by NHerrera and the magician.
The concept to me is somewhat disturbing as I am wary that irritating bloggers might be included in the diet of the fish.
Renato Pacifico has nothing to fear from Duterte, Joe. As we all know, irritating is not in Duterte’s line of fire, :).
Ahahahaha. Clever, so clever. 🙂
That’s funny, Duterte’s quality as a leader was based on, “abundance of fat fish harvested from the Davao Gulf.” Never heard of something like that in gauging someone’s potential of becoming a good president. 😜
And Joe’s retort is not only justified but also a premonition of bad things to come.. People who don’t want a fisherman for president might swim with the fishes later on if the fisherman is elected. Lol! 😃
And while we’re at it, with the fisherman in Malacanang we all might end up talking issues under the sea! 🙂
Yes. When a man draws his own lines, and then assumes great power, he still draws his own lines. No telling which side one will slip to next week.
But seriously, the Duterte push for the presidency, as implied by some members here, is at the moment a weak proposition. For one, he has not even express interest in running. And one reason for that could be his standing in the ratings.
And I’m iffy about Duterte. He could be as corrupt as Binay or even worse. And I cannot imagine myself finding that out when he’s already sitting in Malacanang. 👀
jameboy, be careful with what you’re saying about the guy. You have to always remember that the fish in Manila Bay is as voracious as those in Davao Gulf. Please be warned.