The coronavirus; facts and future.
The facts of the Philippines. [Photo source: The Jerusalem Post]
By Joe America
Let me drop off two resource links. One provides the results of a study of 138 coronavirus victims from Wuhan. It is perhaps the best picture of the knowns and unknowns of the virus we have.
The second is a link to the Department of Health reports on the coronavirus, updated daily except when the DOH is busy or in crisis mode. It provides regional details.
The future of the disease in the Philippines depends a lot on what Filipinos do, and, of course, what their government does.
Steps Filipinos can do are to maintain careful hygiene, keep distance from others, avoid crowds, and otherwise seal the virus off so it stays wherever it is. In otherwords, avoid carriers and don’t become one.
Government can:
- Do more, quicker, and better testing of people (DOH is struggling with this.)
- Provide sanitary access routes to hospitals for people bearing symptoms (avoid crowds like those that gather in hallways waiting for the doctor; I don’t think DOH has adequately addressed this.)
- Provide enough beds, properly sealed off from other patients, and with medical staff properly protected (I am not sure what DOH is doing on this, but don’t have a lot of confidence.)
- Be honest and forthright (DOH demonstrates a tendency to take politically safe routes).
If the virus is contained, great! If it is not, we can expect to see what we see elsewhere:
- Provinces and islands taking steps to protect their populations (Cebu already requires 14 day quarantine of visitors from China; Boracay does not).
- Housing developments instituting protective steps (temperature checks; reviewing travel histories by demanding passport checks; banning high risk visitors).
- Families taking their own protections in hand (already there are runs on food in Singapore; essentially a long-distance self-quarantine approach)
This is all predicated on how severe the matter becomes. It has taken almost three months for Wuhan to reach peak contamination rate, and it will be several months before it runs down. Say six months as a guess of the term we are looking at.
The Philippines has only just begun to deal with the virus.
The economic hit can be anywhere from mild to severe. The real estate leasing market in Manila is already getting soft. It is something to watch and be aware of.
Other than that, have a nice day.
Joe
The Society of Honor by Joe America 
Oh my, saw several videos. (Itinago) and they were scary. As usual the govt. acts like, “too late the hero”.
RITM must outsource local bio companies to mass produce test kits.
Otherwise hospitals will just observe patients for a number of days, send samples to RITM if load to heavy then send out to Oz.
Thanks for the new blog. Very sensible suggestions for personal care and for the Administration in the handling of NCIP.
I noticed in the first link, an article from JAMA, that there is a new label or term for the coronavirus:
NCIP = Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)-Infected Pneumonia
JAMA [Journal of the American Medical Association, a peer-reviewed medical journal] extensively details its medical findings in a cluster of 138 infected by NCIP — housed in hospital in Wuhan. It found, among many others, that 41% of the confirmed cases got the virus from hospital transmission. Attention, DOH.
Thanks for the note that the peak infection rate has been reached. I hinted about this in my analysis some days back: the hint of deceleration of the infection rate by taking the 3-day exponential moving average of the infection rate.
Hospital transmission is why many prefer self quarantine.
NH,
Your numbers show that we are just at the tip of the iceberg and WHO also says so
https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1226607/who-warns-overseas-virus-spread-may-be-tip-of-the-iceberg/amp
Thanks for that link, karl. I picked these parts:
WHO said in recent days there had been “some stabilizing” in the numbers of new cases of the coronavirus in China. But the UN agency cautioned it was too early to say if the virus had peaked.
[Of course, in technical terms, peaking of the infection rate — a speed term — does not mean peaking of the infected cases. So Joe and I are correct, since peaking of the infection cases mean the infection rate has come to zero; it has not yet; and thus, WHO is correct.]
While the virus’ spread outside China appeared to be slow, Ghebreyesus warned it could accelerate. [Yes, in at least absolute terms: 350+ outside China, and 40,000+ in China.]
“Containment remains our objective, but all countries must use the window of opportunity created by the containment strategy to prepare for the virus’s possible arrival,” he said.
Attention, DOH.
I wish to write about these thoughts relevant to the blog.
There are draconian measures imposed by China’s leaders in Hubei province, home to some 60m, particularly in the city of Wuhan, home to 11m. There is the sad state of affairs of some in Wuhan as reported by a Chinese Wuhan journalist — due mainly to the health authorities there being overwhelmed by the work to be done and the shortage of medical facilities with the deluge of cases. There is too the now known fact of the cover-up at the early stage of the virus by the Chinese Authorities, local and national.
While these are very sad and can be criticized harshly by some, they have indeed, in my opinion, bought some time for us and all those outside China with confirmed infected cases. There are lessons to be learned there as well as the actions taken by the other countries.
Now is the time indeed for all good men to act for the common good of humanity.
I may note again that mankind has these three items to contend with going forward: probabilities of
– nuclear warfare,
– effects of climate change,
– a pandemic due to future viruses beyond 2019-nCoV.
GOOD NEWS AND BAD NEWS
From Australia:
Experts from the New South Wales Health Pathology lab in Australia have successfully grown the live coronavirus from NSW patients — rather than synthetic specimens –according to a health ministry statement.
“Health experts around the world will be able to contain the spread of novel coronavirus among the population faster, following a breakthrough by NSW Health researchers,” the statement said.
Australian health minister Brad Hazzard said experts can now help contain the spread of the virus faster, as understanding the epidemiology of the disease is necessary to develop reliable diagnostic testing to identify and contain it.
“Early and accurate diagnosis of infectious and deadly viruses is critical because undiagnosed patients can unknowingly transmit it to others,” Hazzard said.
From the tour ship, The Diamond Princess:
There are 66 newly confirmed coronavirus cases aboard the Diamond Princess ship docked in Yokohama, according to an announcement just made by the ship’s captain Stefano Ravera.
That brings the total number of cases on the ship to 136, nearly doubling the previous total of 70 confirmed cases yesterday.
That is about 3.4% of the ships population of guests and crew.
NH: I may note again that mankind has these three items to contend with going forward: probabilities of
– nuclear warfare,
– effects of climate change,
– a pandemic due to future viruses beyond 2019-nCoV.
NH,
your comment reminded me of two books in particular,
1. the End
2. How to Change Your Mind
sure you can pile more disasters man-made or otherwise to that list, and in the end it still would boil down to you dying, not the world, not anyone else, but you as individual.
You take all possibilities, then winnow down to most probables, and you’re still looking at the reality of life, that nature– the universe– wants to kill you. These “disasters” are all arbitrary, and when whittled to its nub , are mere amalgamations of your eventual fate.
Just two weeks ago Manila was panicking about Taal volcano. In essence, your worry is arbitrary.
That’s the gist of the first book.
the second book, which I just read recently having heard Mike Tyson’s interview on Joe Rogan’s youtube podcast,
When former heavyweight boxing champion Mike Tyson first tried 5-MeO-DMT — also called “the toad” — he said it knocked him off his feet, profoundly changing his life. “I came across this thing called the toad. I smoked this medicine, drug, whatever you want to call it, and I’ve never been the same,” Tyson said on the Joe Rogan Experience podcast last year, viewed by nearly 10 million people. “I look at life differently, I look at people differently. It’s almost like dying and being reborn… It’s inconceivable. I tried to explain it to some people, to my wife, I don’t have the words to explain it. It’s almost like you’re dying, you’re submissive, you’re humble, you’re vulnerable — but you’re invincible still in all.”
One single 50mg vaporized dose — derived from dried venom secreted by the Bufo alvarius toad — often produces hallucinogenic, boundless experiences within one second of inhalation that can last from 7 to 90 minutes, and on average lasts 20 minutes.
from Forbes , “5-MeO-DMT: The 20-Minute Psychoactive Toad Experience That’s Transforming Lives” by
David E. Carpenter
the second book, on the Mind, is how you accept your fate, thus living a life with less worry.
So, you’re correct, NH, there will surely be another disaster just around the corner, one can either panic and worry all the time, or be that Happy Warrior and fight with a smile, knowing full well that all this worry and its your prostate that’ll get you in the end. Lol!
But seriously, these two books go very well together.
I would also note that collagen is good for you (i recommend Great Lakes brand), because as Hippocrates said a long time ago “Let food be thy medicine and medicine be thy food.”
and also (at) Beyond Meat on Twitter, look at what they’re doing.
Both will help avert the current and next pandemic.
1. Collagen (when cooked it’s gelatin)
2. Beyond Meat (plant based protein)
Since there is no literal button to speak off,
We are no longer reminded that US and Russia has more or less 60,000 nukes combined and the rest of the world has less than 20k combined.
But as GWB used to say ” those Nukelar weapons must be kept off the axis”
For us we are hoping that Taiwan and Japan will have to be equipped with missilev defense because without VFA we are no longer just sitting ducks, we are accomodating ducks. Open season.
Sokor’s missile defense must be alien tech, they are so near.
Back to life,
In caring for sick loved ones, you prepair for all the eventualities, but no amount of preparation can prepare you.
Like what Mike Tyson said when you get hit in the face.
karl,
I’d like to touch on 3 things regarding what you said. And attempt to wrap all 3 up together.
I. Bill Gate’s Nuke deal with China
II. Suicide and Euthanasia
III. FREE Porn offered for Diamond Princess quarantinees
1. Bill Gate’s TerraPower nuclear energy deal with China was cancelled due to Trump’s trade war. It was a deal hammered out during the Obama years, first Gates proposed said idea here, but politically— both current energy industry blocking and public fears— just not possible here. So Gates went to Xi and Xi was more than excited to implement.
Peter Janicki’s Omni-Processor , which Bill Gates also helped implement, his idea, Janicki’s know-how. The US military was very interested, though i’m not sure if they are being used now.
2. Taking care of an aged, and/or ill , love one is one thing. If their mind is still there. But when to start seriously thinking about suicide, or if already mentally gone/physically unable, euthanasia is the primary subject so important that the medical field, science and our religions have not given us solace for, nor instruction— though only one religion Jainism does account for it.
Catholic Philippines , i remember people didn’t even think about it, much less planned for this eventuality. West Europe is where they are very open, though some case law is being made here. In the end, coronavirus or not, you have to plan for the possibilities of suicide,
but if unable to, then euthanasia.
3. Camsoda which is a new porn site, social media platform think Patreon & youtube combined, share and make money at the same time, just offered quarantined passengers on the Diamond Princess, free accounts but also since this site works like Uber/Lyft which can encourage traffic towards certain locales , live feed from real celebrities of the website.
Which i’m sure is a publicity ploy, but the relevance is what’s so poetic. That in the end, when you are stuck in a cabin on a cruise ship with people dying, the human contact that is so significant, if you really think about it, REALLY think about it, is exactly this type of contact.
—
1. fear and status quo
2. suicide and euthanasia
3. quarantine and sex
All three are connected, because if you whittle down, this is in essence of what modern panic unveils about the human condition.
1. Love
2. Love
3. Love
Love of what’s familiar makes you content with the status quo, & cause fear of change; Love of the material cause you to think that life is only when someone is tangible nothing more (let them go); Love of flesh, in the end this is the most truthful of the three, that the flesh is not necessary after all.
The third may be a stretch, but there’s some truth there that needs to be distilled that is good, and I’m not talking about just the Free aspect of it, but of content providers rushing to the rescue— whatever said rescue entails.
Maybe that’s the Love part of the third. But i assure you all three connect.
I am no longer shocked of your comments.
But what about the other readers, who may just visit here occasionally.
Oh well, thanks for your thoughts.
Rest assured, I read them
What scary in hospital transmission is the health workers who may get infected is not quarantined, they get to go out of the hospital, travel go home then go back, get infected some more then boom!
https://ph.news.yahoo.com/report-138-coronavirus-cases-reveals-150259210.html
health workers dont knowingly infect others. but if infected, the usual applies: contact tracing and on to quarantine; health workers also quarantined. if admitted to hospital, health workers often get prioritized, they dont need to stay in long line like anyone; are treated better: have the best beds with windows to the outside world, and food is better too.
the good news is not all infected will die, some developed immunity after exposure.
being quarantined may give false security. they’re only negative of the virus up to a point.
after quarantine, if they they get in contact with those who have the virus, they can still be infected and may have to go into quarantine (again) or be treated and stay in hospital.
I know it is inadvertent kb, and I agree on post quarantine transmissoon. Those immune can still be carriers. Thanks again
The thing I posted about inter species transmission about birds, bats, rats….
During floods they can spread what they excrete.
There are kids who love to swim on and play with flood water or even bodies of water like Manila bay.
Parents should warn their children and themselves.
“Those immune can still be carriers.” not in my opinion po. example: those vaccinated vs measles become immune to measles, does not mean they become carriers and can infect others with measles.
being immune could well mean your antibodies are alert to foreign invaders (germs and viruses) dahil they have encountered those invaders before and know what do 2nd time around: kill and overwhelm the invaders! is what I mean by immunity.
indeed, those immune have the germs and viruses in thier system, but those are already dead, been subdued and encapsulated by antibodies. dead germs and viruses are much like scars and skeleton and not to be feared.
kids will always be kids and will swim in contaminated flood water.
it’s best to shower, have thorough wash and rinse well after swimming in contaminated water. wash off those microbes.
hospital transmission of infectious and communicable applies to all in the vicinity, not just health workers. patients infect other patients as well as unsuspecting visitors; sekyus, canteen staff, cleaners who cleaned rooms, janitors who cleaned toilets, and those that do hospital laundry, etc. and vice versa.
cross transmission is common occurrence in hospitals. health staff often decontaminate after work, update all their vaccinations and practice standard hygiene.
Understood, I stand corrected in many ways.
Thanks, just continue to correct me if you see me shooting from the hips.
We learn from those who differ without being disagreeable.
anybody, quarantined or non-quarantined who was at ground-zero and/or within the known incubation period who does not develop the symptom profile of the specific virus can be assumed immune from the virus, prima facie. The health workers in contact with known victims get to be tested and certified upon presentation of symptoms. If negative then the worker can be of help to the infected victims, IMO.
Thanks, Uncle Sonny.
You’re welcome, Karl.
I recalled a clear mechanism that our immune system follows is the release of macrophages that engulf the molecules of the foreign infectious agents (viral or bacterial) and literally destroy the foreign bodies. This action accounts for the absence of transmissible material from the immunized health worker.
sonny,
it was on CBC channel interview that I saw,
the woman i guess was one of the first patients from the Diamond Princess (i’m trying to find that interview online, no cigar), she ‘s recovering, but actually never was sick as per her description. She just was coughing which she attributed to walking on deck w/out a jacket.
Of course, I wasn’t gonna bet NH a San Miguel i don’t like losing, but of the 50,000 or so infected cases what is the percentage of that number that feels just a slight cough when infected.
Then as per chemp’s article from the other thread, account for those that died not from the virus per se but from the lack of medical resources and care because of the panic. so just maybe 1,000 units of Vitamin C and 2,000 units of Vitamin D is all that s necessary to combat this virus.
And lots of water, and per Micha’s notes on the other thread maybe a vaporizer. I’ve turned off my Vicks vaporizer, but make it now a point to inhale steam when making my coffee every morning.
This weekend I will go to Chinatown, and get some dim-sum. Since they say its now a ghost town, which is ironic because Chinatown L.A. is actually mostly Vietnamese and Cambodian; whilst most Chinese mainlanders and Taiwan Chinese are in the San Gabriel area— now I won’t go there, Lol!
An inside report/interview on effect of coronavirus on Chinese leadership. Give a listen:
https://relevantradio.com/listen/our-shows/a-closer-look/
Click on podcast panel, lower left hand panel.
Galing talaga ni Tatay Digz
Hind ma ha-hack ng Chinese ang Pilipinas!
Kasi di na kailangan😁
Open access
NEWS ITEM
Two Japanese citizens who had initially tested negative for coronavirus have now been diagnosed with the disease. The two new patients, both men, were evacuated from China to Japan; one is in his 50s and the other in his 40s.
THE TOOLS AND THE OPPORTUNITY TO PERFECT THEIR USE ARE THERE
So why not use them.
Since ancient times tools whether for warfare or something like the lever or wheel have been used when the opportunities present themselves. And look where the further development of the wheel has brought modern man.
In a country with a population as large as China, 1.4 billion and counting, it is understandable to me how modern technology — from facial recognition and drones, etc. — is being used to bear on the surveillance to combat the 2019-nCoV. Which when the battle for the current virus is over will have brought China a wealth of experience for its application to a possible Orwellian World. Already China has some start in using technology in dealing with the Uygur minority in Xinjiang.
the wuhan virus is hybrid po, china does not have template for it, yet. and china being china, it would need to steal ideas from others, spy on others too, steal technologies and blue prints, and make all their own.
china rarely has respect for patents, intellectual properties, etc. watch and see, china’s eye in the skies and ears on the walls, super spies are busy, busy, busy on the lookout for anything useful and worth stealing. methink.
TRIVIA
It strikes me as interesting that if the 7.8 billion people of the world are each provided with a surgical face mask costing some P10 per piece that the cost will only be about US $1.56 billion (= 7.8 x 10/50). And yet since the world had not needed that much face mask, there is such an acute shortage of the item.
VIRUS OUTBREAK PREPAREDNESS
With the rate of worldwide confirmed nCov cases decelerating — with some 45,000 cases in Mainland China and some 500 cases outside of China — WHO is concerned about the prospects for the cases outside China with less preparedness to handle the virus.
The link below,
https://www.ghsindex.org
provides an infographic of the preparedness of countries in terms of the Global Health Security (GHS) Index. One may enter a country in the small horizontal box to see the index. I list below some countries with their corresponding preparedness index score out of maximum of 100 and ranking indices out of 195 countries:
United States: 83.5, 1/95
United Kingdom: 77.9, 2/95
Australia: 75.5, 4/195
Canada: 75.3, 5/195
Thailand: 73.2, 6/195
Sweden: 72.1, 7/195
South Korea: 70.2, 9/195
France: 68.2, 11/195
Germany: 66.0, 14/195
Spain: 65.9, 15/195
Norway: 64.6, 16/195
Malaysia: 62.2, 18/195
Japan: 59.8, 21/195
Singapore: 58.7, 24/195
Indonesia: 56.6, 30/195
South Africa: 54.8, 34/195
Vietnam: 49.1, 50/195
Philippines: 47.6, 53/195
India: 46.5, 57/195
Russia: 44.3, 63/195
Myanmar: 43.4, 72/195
Ethiopia: 40.6, 84/195
Nigeria: 37.8, 96/195
Afghanistan: 32.3, 130/195
Venezuela: 23.0, 176/195
North Korea: 17.5, 193/195
I forgot to include in the list,
China: 48.7, 51/195.
That is between Vietnam and the Philippines in disease outbreak preparedness according to that Global index.
I think because the Philippines has time to work on preparations, it is getting some good preparations in place including regional testing and a quarantine system. We’ll see. The DOH has refined its information tracking and now has an interactive chart at: doh.gov.ph/2019-nCov
That’s good news.
in our country, cooler heads prevailed. doh dipped into knowledge base and consult with overseas colleagues like australia. communicating both ways. unlike china, doh was not secretive and share info. doh chief duque was under immense stress, his aura is bristling. yet he kept a cool head, his doctors kept cool heads as well, all went on with their jobs and showed united front.
if they panic, they kept it to themselves.
True, that last line. Sec Locsin says they are working very hard.
looking back, I think, the mistake the chinese whistleblower doctor who 1st noted the existence of the new virus was his failure to inform the overall chinese health minister, and apportion the blame. whistleblower blabbed his findings on the internet instead and that got the attention of local govt officials squarely on him, and the rest is history.
somehow, I refused to believe that the chinese chief health minister is incapable of action, he has access to the best medical minds in the world and could have consulted with overseas colleagues, the americans, the british, germans, etc. all their pooled knowledge could have put earlier dent on the new virus, the containment done sooner and lives could have been saved.
now, WHO stepped in, give name to the new virus, and things are being done to china.
despite being techno hub and on the forefront of discoveries, china can sometimes be parochial.
Excellent points.
I believe Duque is a capable Medical Doctor who has knowledge and experience in the handling of previous pandemic. Thank goodness we don’t have PAO’s Acosta [of Dengvaxia “fame;” no MD she] at the helm, otherwise we should be afraid.
On the name for the coronavirus:
COVID-19 = NCP (novel coronavirus pneumonia) = NCIP (novel coronavirus infected pneumonia) = 2019-nCoV = Wuhan virus
WHO finally named it on Tuesday as COVID-19. I suppose this is the official name now.
Another question worth pondering too, is if the corona virus epidemic had not happened in Wuhan but in ethnic minority enclaves of China, how would the gov’t respond?
p.s.~ i saw an interview of one the Diamond Princess passengers who tested positive, now sequestered in hospital, and all she said was that she had the cough, no fever, nothing serious. What gives?
FOR WHATEVER LESSON MAY BE LEARNED
Taken from an article in BBC. A visual of how COVID-19 has spread in China for a period of 20 days — starting with just 615 in January 23 to 44,724 in February 12. This is a conjecture on my part but such a progression may be different in a country such as the US with different circumstances.
A BIG JUMP IN CONFIRMED CASES OF COVID-19 IN ONE DAY
CNN reports that in one day the number of confirmed cases jumped by about 15,000 and deaths by 242. The total confirmed cases is now 60,015 and total death number is 1357.
This may due to some accounting changes, as the the report says China has added some “clinically diagnosed cases” to the total of the confirmed cases.
It does fit this population density map above. The area near and around the Yellow river looks to be the sweet spot.
OH, BY THE WAY
The confirmed COVID-19 cases went past 50,000 today. Since no one took the bet I posted earlier in an earlier blog article, when the confirmed cases was just about 28,000,
NHerrera says:
February 6, 2020 at 12:01 pm
However, this much I can say with confidence from the prevailing [official] data. In 10 days — that is, by February 16 — the worldwide confirmed cases will be more than 50,000. On this I can bet a bottle of SanMig,
I will go get a bottle of SanMig myself. 🙂
Senile Old Man said Trump tried to save VFA. Another Big fat Lie😂 Anyone who knows Orange Man’s style knows this is exactly what he likes😂
I’m with Orange Man on this one. Don’t need more aid going to such a murderous, tin pot dictatorship.
I’m coming around to agree with you, Charisse. The Philippines does not merit US effort and expense. Your insight into Trump is also ‘spot on’.
ending the american military pact, this would be greatest valentines day gift digong gives the npa. wont be surprised if npa goes on massive nationwide celebration. no more vfa, edca would be next. one down, one to go.
methink, australia also has vfa with our country. wait and see ako, if australia’s vfa will also be made null and void.
Yes all the leftists are celebrating, too. It all seems strategically wrong to me, but I’m all for the confidence people are showing that the PH should ‘stand alone’.
Maybe finally the Internal Security Operations will be teansfered to the Police, as planned.
The AFP modernization law was intended to move internal security matters to the police, with the AFP as a last resort, alas it will never be that way
Perhaps an info helpful to ordinary people. Two important paragraphs squared:
“Scientists are working on a vaccine against COVID-19, but it is unlikely to be developed in time to help the current outbreak. To prevent the spread of the disease, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention asks the public to follow the usual steps to prevent the spread of respiratory viruses.
These include regularly washing hands with soap and water for at least 20 seconds, particularly after using the bathroom, before eating, and after coughing, sneezing or blowing your nose. When sneezing or coughing, cover your mouth with a tissue or your elbow and throw away the tissue immediately. Try not to touch your eyes, nose or mouth with unwashed hands. Stay at home if you are sick, and if you are well, avoid those who are ill. Objects and surfaces should be cleaned and disinfected frequently using spray or wipes.”
“Scientists are working on a vaccine against COVID-19, but it is unlikely to be developed in time to help the current outbreak. To prevent the spread of the disease, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention asks the public to follow the usual steps to prevent the spread of respiratory viruses.
These include regularly washing hands with soap and water for at least 20 seconds, particularly after using the bathroom, before eating, and after coughing, sneezing or blowing your nose. When sneezing or coughing, cover your mouth with a tissue or your elbow and throw away the tissue immediately. Try not to touch your eyes, nose or mouth with unwashed hands. Stay at home if you are sick, and if you are well, avoid those who are ill. Objects and surfaces should be cleaned and disinfected frequently using spray or wipes.”
Read more?
https://www.msn.com/en-ca/health/health-news/what-happens-to-your-body-when-you-get-the-new-coronavirus/ar-BBZWtAs?ocid=spartandhp
THE FIRST INSTANCE OF LOCKDOWN AFTER HUBEI DUE TO COVID-19
A community with a population of 10,000 was lockdown in Vietnam due to a 50-year old father who got the virus from an infected son. The commune is Son Loi in Vinh Phuc province, about 40 kilometers (25 miles) northwest of the capital Hanoi. This brings the confirmed cases to 16 in Vietnam.
Outside of ethical, moral and legal considerations, I suppose each country has to grapple with the concept and act for a lockdown due to the particular circumstances in a community. Fortunately, in this instance the population involved is only 10,000 compared to the 60 million of China’s Hubei province, particularly the 11 million of Wuhan.
MY CONJECTURE AS TO WHY THE REDEFINITION OF “CONFIRMED CASES” OF COVID-19
The mortality or death rate relative to the the confirmed — that is kit-tested — cases for COVID-19 from February 5 to 11 went like this in percentage:
2.1, 2.0 2.1, 2.1, 2.0, 2.1, 2.3, 2.5.
Note that the rate was more less stable at 2.0% – 2.1%. Then on Feb 11, 12 there is the jump to 2.3%, 2.5%. While this was happening the additional confirmed/ tested cases was seen to be declining from some 4000 to about 2000, and counting. On Feb 12, the confirmed/ tested cases was about 45,000.
The Feb 13 total deaths of 1357 when viewed relative to the 45,000 cases with an additional number of, say, 2000 or 47,000 yields the death rate of 2.9% (=1357/47,000 converted to percentage). We then have the progression from the last three above of … 2.1, 2.3, 2.5, 2.9.
Then I would say, hold your horses, what’s happening here. Then someone says we have these numerous of cases which shows the symptoms of the disease — “clinically diagnosed” — but not yet tested or confirmed for COVID-19. Quite understandable since the facilities are overwhelmed. So, voila, the addition of the clinically diagnosed to the confirmed cases.
Oops, incorrect posting again. The above should come after
NHerrera says:
February 13, 2020 at 9:45 am.
The addition of the clinically diagnosed cases to the kit-tested, confirmed cases brings the total to about 60,000. With this the mortality rate comes down to 2.3% (=1357/60,000 converted to %) — which brings the mortality rate back to the previous level.
@NHerrera: 2.3% (=1357/60,000 converted to %)?
You forget to add those that are recovered and dead. Total people: 60.363 + 1370 + 6285 = 68.018 people. 1370 dead is 2.01%
Yes. Thanks for the correction.