Maritime Policing in the Philippines with CAP Marines (International Affairs and Civil Affairs combined, with some PSYOPS too)
Analysis and Opinion
By Lance Corporal X
That’s Private Robert E. Lee Witt taking a dip in the waters of Melanesia during WWII. That character reminds me of Jim Caviezel’s two other film roles as Catch in Angel Eyes and Jesus in Mel Gibson’s The Passion of the Christ. Both renovative and redeemed. That is also how I feel about CAP Marines. Maybe I’m idealizing them because I feel like they really fought for something, and didn’t just do their time in Vietnam. They owned those villages, and the villagers owned them back, as family. Marines today look up to them with a certain level of nostalgia we tend to associate with individual Marines, like Smedley Butler or Chesty Puller. CAP Marines fought the good fight, thus basked in the light of God. Just like Pvt. Witt.
But enough about feelings, we’re here to talk about CAP Marines in the Philippines. Not to fight against the NPA, this isn’t about counter-insurgency. Instead it’s about maritime policing. The Philippines is beset with issues of bad governance and corruption, but most pressing IMHO is maritime policing. Protection of fisheries and enforcement of disaster-prone coastal areas. Because the Philippines is an archipelago. Had there been robust maritime policing, China would have never acquired illegally dredged sand to make its man-made islands. Responsible for maritime policing are PNP-Maritime Group (MG) and Philippine Coast Guard (PCG). There are gaps between PNP-MG and PCG for sure where US Marines can fill, albeit only as supporting role.
To be sure, there are no more CAP Marines, they are a product of a bygone era. A wisp. They tried to revive it during GWOT ( link here: https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2004/02/the-marines-charm-offensive-in-iraq.html ) early on, but something was just lost in translation. Like you’re not supposed to do it backwards, bottom-up instead of top-down. Whatever the reason it never took, CAP Marines was never replicated. Take a look at the graphs below. CAP Marines were for Phases 0 to 3, if you do it at Phase 4, you’re doing it ass backwards. There’s just no affinity or common ground at that point. That’s why the CAP Marine idea is perfect right now for the Philippines. On the ground level. US Marines can augment for Filipino maritime policing, since PNP-MG and PCG I’m sure have no CAP Marine programs in place. Which requires persistent continuity. So, it’s a perfect trade off, the Philippines gets a more robust maritime policing asset. While the US Marines get to experiment with new things vis a vis China.
The best place to start are the islands facing the Benham Rise. Spread out a company of US Marines, tack on a few Filipino Marines or PNP-MG, to ensure legality. For the US Marines, this will be a fact finding, feasibility mission for how Expeditionary Advanced Base Operations/Stand-In Forces (EABO/SIF) doctrine will unfold in case there’s war with China. They’ll be prosecuting contested logistics scenarios as well as intelligence gathering for Benham Rise countering China’s incursions both military and commercial. Reconnaissance/counter-reconnaissance operations (RXR) is what they call it. Then as augmentees to Philippine maritime policing they will support police and coast guards in their real world missions. I’m not really sure what goes on in these islands next to Benham Rise, but let’s say it’s illegal fishing and it’s necessity.
US Marines can provide communications capabilities that can network the islands, making for enforcement sustainable and persistent. But also because squads of US Marines are spread out in these individual islands a better picture of the needs of the populace would be better documented. The company of US Marines tasked in ownership of these islands, will take notes of these needs and they’ll contact Civil Affairs, who will engage with American resources to provide for those needs. There’s US Marine combat engineers, there’s US Navy seabees, there’s even US Air Force civil engineers who deploy just to build stuff. You want a fresh water well here, you want another basketball court there, the sky’s the limit. Or other works that will generate sustainable mariculture as proposed by TSOH Matriarch JP (link: https://joeam.com/2024/08/22/mariculture-in-the-west-phillippines-sea/ ).
If the CAP Marine idea takes root in east Luzon’s coastal region. The next suitable islands would be those between Samar & Leyte. Or between Panay & Palawan. Or both. Additional two companies of US Marines. Again , I’m not familiar with those islands. But let’s say the issue is dying mangrove forests or blight in sea grass which support sea life. Or maybe it’s poaching of sea turtles and sharks to satiate China’s hunger for exotic foods. Or just general pollution of the seas by Filipinos. On top of Civil Affairs, CAP Marines will also have access to Public Affairs (and PSYOPS) Marines who will be at their disposal. These Marines can create TikTok videos of mangrove plants dancing with sea grass, and make the kids love them. I don’t really know how they work. But Public Affairs ( & PSYOPS) Marines can bring attention to issues, and gently influence residents towards better behavior. And in the case of demand from China (this includes land animals too like Pangolins), US Marines can counter potential Filipinos supplying China with positive propaganda and influence them to do something that’s more beneficial.
Nudge Filipinos gently into protecting their sea life and seas. And not succumb to exploitative tendencies when it comes to their environment, especially as demanded by China. I don’t really know much about Public Affairs (and PSYOPS), but I do know they are about influencing behavior and providing good useful information. And creating narratives.
Then expand it to Mindanao, both the Sulu Sea and the Celebes Sea. US Marines will learn plenty about smuggling there, I’m sure, to inform their studies in contested logistics. So we’ve seen where CAP Marines can leverage Civil Affairs resources in Luzon, then in the Visayas how they can apprise Public Affairs (and PSYOPS) in order to inform and influence the populace for the better. For Mindanao, CAP Marines will rely more on International Affairs Marines. Because the focus there should be advocacy for Sama-Badjao people who live and ply the waters of the Sulu and Celebes Seas. International Affairs Marines will coordinate between the Philippines and Indonesia (and possibly Malaysia too). Presence in the Sulu and Celebes Seas is also crucial vis a vis China. Maybe Sama-Badjaos can also become official guides for Marines, just as CAP Marines in Vietnam had local guides of their own. But more for environment protection. Also, like Negritos, Sama-Badjaos can also advice US Marines in how to survive and thrive in the maritime environment. This is while learning about smuggling there too, because that informs lessons being sought right now on contested logistics.
(here’s the source of the maps: https://muir-way.com/cdn/shop/files/Philippines_1952_Relief_Map.jpg )
CAP Marines as your Stand-In Force will generate good works via Civil Affairs. But more importantly, they will generate a collective narrative for the Philippines via Public Affairs (and PSYOPS). TSOH Historian Ireneo once reported how complex the National Village truly is (link: https://joeam.com/2020/09/09/the-national-village/ ), that’s where International Affairs Marines will have to map out the Philippines for CAP Marines so they have a daily understanding as well as the big picture of all the players in Philippine body politic, lightly engaging in it sure , whilst keeping it as far away from their mission. That part will be tricky. I propose Sama-Badjao as something US Marines can advocate for , not just for morale like something that they can fight for, but also as means to converge International Affairs (IA) Marines, Public Affairs (PA) Marines (and PSYOPS Marines) and Civil Affairs (CA) Marines with CAP Marines. Because if US Marines can lift up the Sama-Badjao, not only economically and culturally, but in spirit promoting their hunter-gatherer traditions and ensuring it continues on. Well, that’s martime policing in a nutshell. Protecting the maritime environment.
In conclusion, we know that China has the first-mover advantage here. And who knows how the war will turn out if it turns out at all. But right now, US Marines can do maritime policing with the Philippines, while at the same time doing their EABO/SIF/RXR missions. Right now, the US Marines can help create that grand Filipino narrative that all Filipinos can be part of. Right now, Filipinos can help US Marines in advocating for their most downtrodden peoples. It’s a win-win-win, and with minimum funding too, in comparison to missiles and drones. Because if there’s any main lessons learned from CAP Marines in Vietnam, it’s that young wide eyed Marines can deliver and with less access to funding too. Creativity was their main asset which stems from their culture, Marine Corps culture, doing more with less. If there’s anything I know about US Marines, it is that they don’t have to be IA, CA, PA or even PSYOPS Marines, US Marines will spread their culture whether you like it or not. It’s just what we do. But I gotta feeling you’ll like it. Because what’s not to like. We’re trying to bask in the light of God here.
Who cares what China’s gonna do later, we’ll cross that road when we have to (that’s why US Marines are doing EABO/SIF/RXR), now we create a freer and stronger Philippines, not in armaments but in people. Because that’s going to be a bigger problem for China.
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[…] So what I’m proposing here is very similar to my CAP Marines in the Philippines blog: https://joeam.com/2024/11/04/maritime-policing-in-the-philippines-with-cap-marines-international-aff… But instead of connecting CAP Marine village via satellite communications and drones, […]
The Society of Honor by Joe America 
Nice, but eventually this has to be implemented.
https://www.eeas.europa.eu/delegations/philippines/interconnecting-national-maritime-agencies-strengthen-maritime-security-and-safety-and-sustainable_en
Closing the event, Martin Cauchi-Inglott, CRIMARIO project director said: “Philippines has been at the forefront of welcoming IORIS to the region, the action even commencing with intensity when COVID was at its peak. Philippines is now set to lead the way in taking ownership of IORIS, allowing itself to drive the process internally, and bridge to external partners whenever it deems necessary. My hearty congratulations go to these most professional maritime agencies coming on board.”
The event was organised by CRIMARIO, an EU funded project established in 2015 to contribute to enhancing maritime domain awareness, and which now addresses maritime security and safety threats, in collaboration with the Philippines National Coast Watch Center, an inter-agency body that provides strategic direction and formulates and promulgates policy guidelines on maritime issues and security in the country.
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Nice. i’ve not heard of them, karl. Let me Google more on them. seems no connections to military then?
Partnerships with the EU is good, but there is the “tyranny of distance.” There is also the European preoccupation with the Russian threat in the European theater.
President Biden did a lot of great work pulling allies together in the Pacific, who all have concerns in regards to the Chinese threat. To be honest, I was surprised when the South Koreans and Japanese agreed with Biden to put aside their grievances in the face of the greater threat of PRC aggression.
http://breakingdefense.com/2024/10/philippines-us-japanese-coast-guards-to-boost-cooperation-after-quad-meet/
https://apnews.com/article/philippines-korea-yoon-marcos-security-strategic-07ff92e4f6030232739142a1829b2acb
The US remains the facilitator of regional engagements and partnerships by leveraging US bilateral relationships with individual countries in order to expand the network of countries who can cooperate based on shared concerns. Which is a good thing.
This doesn’t seem to be military, almost similar to NOAA as I’m understanding this. so its just simply in the data that they’ll be of use, Joey. sorta like how INMARSAT helped locate last location for MH370 Malaysian airlines. cuz i’m sure lots of gov’t military satellites caught the whereabouts of this flight, but cannot divulge cuz sources/methods would be compromised, and has no military bearing, so an open sourse type data stream would be useful for stuff like whats going on in Benham Rise or Celebes seas.
here’s more on INMARSAT, https://www.inmarsat.com/en/news/latest-news/aviation/2014/inmarsat-statement-malaysia-airlines-flight-mh370.html
The partnerships I linked are civilian coast guard partnerships LCpl. More and more Asian countries are interested in having their coast guards have interoperability, information sharing, and joint coast guard patrols with other countries who face the threat from the PRC.
As for satellites, military satellites have their place since they can be flown to specific orbits to take specific images or vacuum signals intelligence, but civilian satellites are getting increasingly powerful. The Pentagon has acknowledged that civilian satellites nowadays often get info before the government even has it. Companies like Maxar and Planet Labs have been immensely critical in the defense of Ukraine for example. Anyone can buy imaging from Maxar and Planet Labs. You can go to their service right now actually and buy the up to date intel for Benham Rise and Celebes Sea if you want.
I just recently found out that US Coast Guard go around training with other nations Coast Guards and that they have ships specific for this task. it was a twitter flame war on whether Coast Guard was considered military, and inserted myself in, to which I said no dudes only when theres a war then they fall under US Navy. wherein some Coastie corrected me. even pointing out that they had a service academy themselves. Also like the US Navy , Filipinos were recruited to fill US Coast Guards ranks.
As to the open source resources, all great. get info from everywhere, and this IORIS karl shared as hub for all things maritime there, makes a lot of sense.
Well yes, the USCG is a military branch (one of 8 uniformed services). In fact the USCG is the oldest military branch. However in the context of peacetime, the USCG operates as a law enforcement agency outside of the Pentagon. In fact, the USCG is the third oldest law enforcement agency in the US after the US Postal Inspection Service and US Marshals Service. Prior to the GWOT and the creation of the Department of Homeland Security, the USCG was under the Department of Transportation and before that was founded under the Department of the Treasury (as the Revenue Cutter Service to enforce customs and tariffs).
To your other point, here’s more information:
https://www.navy.mil/Press-Office/News-Stories/Article/2239576/the-lasting-legacy-of-the-subic-bay-sailors/
https://www.history.navy.mil/research/library/online-reading-room/title-list-alphabetically/f/filipinos-in-the-united-states-navy.html
Most Tagalog Fil-Ams descended from those who immigrated during the Insular to Commonwealth period, and during the Martial Law period. However in Southern California most Fil-Ams are Ilokanos especially in San Diego, as many Ilokanos joined the US Navy through the Navy Philippine Enlistment Program (PEP), and later qualified for citizenship under the Nationality Act of 1940. PEP ended in 1992, as there was no longer a Naval Station Subic Bay for Filipinos to enlist into the US Navy.
More than THANKS for this information, Joe America! Long live CAP Marines! Down with Communist China’s imperialist greed! Gemino H. Abad
Sent from Yahoo Mail for iPhone
Instead of hunting NPA I was thinking more on advocacy and working with folks like: https://www.savephilippineseas.org/who-we-are as well as gov’t both national and local there, Gemino.
I’m not supportive of a CAP Marines or CAP Marines-esque partnership. Firstly it would blur the civilian-military divide and further militarize policing in the Philippines, which is already quite problematic with PNP officials proudly adorning their uniforms with military-style titles. Secondly as an American taxpayer though I’m on the liberal side, I do not support sending the limited resources of the American volunteer military overseas to provide functions that usurp the „host“ country’s own civilian apparatus; America is not in the mood for overseas nation building after the 2 decade adventure of attempting to build Iraq and Afghanistan into modern countries and conservative Americans would oppose this idea even more. Thirdly engaging in such projects would just further fuel the Russian-PRC axis‘ argument that the US is the „world’s policeman,“ which has negative connotations. While the US civilian agencies can certainly provide training and assist (and they do), it is not the responsibility of the US or any other countries to fulfill basic government functions of the Philippines.
The US is a Nation of Laws even if it is sometimes imperfectly applied across the spectrum. Out of English Common Law, two of the most important concepts that safeguard one’s personal human rights are the principles of habeas corpus and posse comitatus. Habeas corpus refers to one’s rights to be brought before a civilian court to determine if one’s detention is lawful. In effect habeas corpus safeguards against summary justice without due process. Posse comitatus refers to supremacy of civilian law enforcement and court processes, forbidding the usage of the military unless civilian law is suspended in such cases as declaration of martial law. Posse comitatus safeguards against single individuals or a group of individuals using the military to enforce decrees which have no basis in law. Indeed, these principles are enshrined in the US Third Amendment which declares among other things, that „No Soldier shall, in time of peace be quartered in any house, without the consent of the Owner, nor in time of war, but in a manner to be prescribed by law.“ US law makes no distinction between whether that law is upheld in the US domestically, or abroad.
Due to these principles, the US contracted out to civilian PMCs and civilian contractors to do the bulk of nation building in Iraq and Afghanistan. Well, we all know the results of that nation building. $8 trillion USD, 20 years lost, 2 generations of servicepeople served, two nations that constantly backstabbed and crapped on American generosity until they got in trouble when the US withdrew. How convenient. The only people who benefited were Iraq and Afghanistan’s equivalents of dynasties and warlords, along with the civilian contractors both Western and local that milked the firehose of cash flowing into those countries. In the end there were no results, only a big bill due for the US adding to the deficit, while the educated classes who hoped for a better future in those countries live in terror under the new regimes of warlords.
However, the US can assist other countries in training and improving skills for local militaries and civilian law enforcement. The most prominent examples on the military side pertaining to the Philippines is USSOCOM advisors training the AFP special operators to finally weaken NPA and Islamic terrorists in Mindanao once and for all. The contingent of USSOCOM advisors was very small but very focused, thus ultimately the AFP found great success. The other way the US can help is by continuing and expanding civilian law enforcement partnerships, such as what the US Coast Guard (a civilian law enforcement agency outside of wartime activation by the US Congress into the US Navy) does with engagements around the world including with the Philippines Coast Guard.
https://www.uscg.mil/About/Partnerships/
From the USCG’s website:
1.) International Maritime Organization (IMO):
„Preserve And Uphold (Partner) Nation’s Prosperity And Economic Security“
2.) Regional Fisheries Management Organizations:
„Preserve And Uphold (Partner) Nation’s Prosperity And Economic Security“
Furthermore, many Filipinos are proud of the Philippines warts and all, and rightfully so. I’d think that most Filipinos would strongly prefer that policing, maritime or not be done and led by Filipinos. This is why EDCA worked out in the end on the military side. No longer did Filipinos see the US as pushing Filipinos around and not taking into account Philippine national interests; rather EDCA is a partnership of respect with the Philippines taking the lead with her own sovereignty. Maritime policing of Philippines fisheries and sovereign borders should be be with Filipinos proudly taking the lead, and all evidences points to this being the case.
Weren’t reasons similar to the ones you mentioned among the motivations of the USA for never quite officially admitting to having colonies in the period where it did have them, for instance having Guam under the Navy Department?
Though to its credit, the USA quickly built up self-government in the Philippines with the Philippine Assembly from 1907 onwards, the Senate from 1916 onwards, etc. and didn’t change the laws of the country from Spanish times.
It would now be ridiculous to blame the USA for not introducing better laws in the Philippines, especially if it came from the usual suspects.
I am happy, though, that US military justice ignored the US Supreme Court when it came to the Nuremberg trials, as the example set with the leading Nazis was one West Germany would never have been able to set, and they would have cause trouble alive.
Hindsight is always 20/20, of course.
Well the situation with US territories such as Guam, American Samoa and Puerto Rico are complicated. Mostly the reasons for limbo preventing these territories from being admitted as full states is the same reason why the District of Columbia has not been admitted as a state — the Republicans are afraid the Americans in these territories will vote Democratic and thus take away their minoritarian advantage that’s baked into the US Constitution. This Republican opposition increased after Nixon’s Southern Strategy in 1968 and onward as the Republican Party became older and more White while the Democratic Party has become more of a multi-ethnic coalition. IMO these territories should be admitted as states because keeping them as territories is antithetical to the entire reason why the American Colonies rebelled in the first place, which is lack of representation.
As to having large portions of Guam under the Navy, this is a different issue mostly pertaining to American land past the Mason-Dixon line having large swaths of federal ownership. During the late 1800s colonial fever in certain parts of the US Congress, military government of the newly obtained ex-Spanish territories was a given until there was a handover to civilian government. The huge bases in Guam and the Northern Marianas were built on what’s always been federal land, not private civilian land, and follow the same pattern as US military bases in the Western Continental US and Hawaii.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_lands
From my historical viewpoint how the US set up local civilian government in the Philippines is similar to the pattern of civilian government during the Insular Period following the Military Government is quite similar to how the Western states were originally organized. I think at the time there was a full belief for a brief period that the ex-Spanish territories would be admitted as full states. But as the Congress changed hands the American people could not stomach accepting new states while at the time as the federalistas in the Philippines lost power to the nacionalistas, the US felt stuck as holding colonies would be going against the idealism of America as a land of represented people. Which is probably one of the reasons the US seemed to enthusiastically support the formation of the Commonwealth. Of course there is always American Exceptionalism in play which was especially strong during that period, so the US wrongly saw Filipinos as “little brown brothers” to be “taught” how to become independent. By the 1980s when I was in school, we were taught that the pre-Commonwealth colonial project was the wrong thing to do as it didn’t respect people’s right of self determination.
As to the Nuremberg trials and postwar Nazi/Fascist prosecutions, at that time Germany and Italy were still under the Allied military government. It doesn’t clash with American ideas of civil law because in effect Germany and Italy were under a form of martial law. President Woodrow Wilson has previously warned of continual war in Europe following WWI and I think the US was tired of constant European wars, and were in the position as the only unscathed economy to enforce American goals for peace. I think the world was better off for it, though in the recent decade Russia has been undermining that peace. I’m glad Moldova rejected Russian influence the other day, and I hope Georgia will prevail also.
At around time stamp 51:00 he talks about calling in air strikes in Marawi. he’s Marine Raider (MARSO).
firstly, CAP Marines would only be helping out (and training) not really enforcing. the enforcement will be done by PNP-MG and PCG. secondly, its not nation building per se (though the larger vision is to connect the Philippines), think US Marines as Team Rubicon here slash helping out PNP-MG/PCG, it such a small foot print that in the bigger scheme of things a squad of US Marines here and there won’t really be a big deal. at least for the US tax payer, think about all the other programs worth billions that have little ROI really pocketed mostly by govt contractors. that’s US taxpayer R&D money.
thirdly, basic maritime policing will ideally be done by Filipinos, with US Marines simply helping out in comms and satellite data both open source and classified. much of the US Marines part in this is actually non-tangibles. in culture building , not nation building, Joey. China/Russia will bitch no matter what. China has presence in many US ports already albeit non-military and Russia via Wagner is in South America and Africa.
“US law makes no distinction between whether that law is upheld in the US domestically, or abroad.” That’s why i’m channeling CAP Marines of Vietnam, Joey. cuz they did this, although upon the invitation of South Vietnam. so theres presedence. its been done.
“However, the US can assist other countries in training and improving skills for local militaries and civilian law enforcement. “ training and improving of skills (as well as augmenting resources) will be the main thrust here. nothing more. cuz US Marines also gotta do EABO/SIF, so they have priorities specific to US Marine Corps and US Navy tasking. I’m thinking a single battalion can do this. nothing more.
oooops… Marine Raider (MARSOC)
ps.—- I don’t think he’s suppose to be talking about this.
but then again, its been written about all over the place, starting here:
Hah, my father knows this Marine’s father. Small world. He’s also related to my godbrother, who’s a captain in the USAF.
It seems that we have differing ideas of what “CAP Marines” mean. CAP Marines in the Vietnam War were not a policing operation. It was a territory holding operation. In effect it was also a propaganda operation to counter communist influence. The VC were brutal, much more brutal to villagers than the few instances of ARVN misidentification of communist sympathizers were. In fact, my two eldest uncles on my mother’s side (aged 17 and 15 at the time) were summarily executed in the town square by the VC as an example when my grandfather, the treasurer of Kontum province resisted their encroachment around Kontum and demands that the communities under my grandfather’s protection join/supply the VC. What happened to my family in Kontum is by no means unique. This happened everywhere the closer to the front lines during the Vietnam War. This is why I bristle a bit at the characterization that CAP Marines needed to save villagers from ARVN. Sure sometimes mistakes were made, just like the numerous mistakes the US made, it’s war. But the communist propaganda in the end overpowered the vast good that was done. There was also a distinction between Buddhist and Catholic villages and towns in South Vietnam. The Catholics were mostly vehemently anti-communist and the most effective ARVN soldiers, while the Buddhists had split views and often had communist sympathizers in their own families. My family are Catholics so it’s obvious which side we were on. CAP Marines failed because goals became undefined as the marine platoons “went native” and due to lack of defined, achievable goals.
I can support assistance and training by US military advisors, which would not be what CAP Marines were. It’s an unwritten rule that sometimes military advisors get into firefights together with the local platoons they are embedded in. Of course the US maintains the right to self defense if attacked or if the civilian population nearby is under imminent threat, which is what happened in Marawi with the US advisors.
But see the thing is the US military already has contingents of military advisors in the Philippines by invitation of the President of the Philippines. Not sure how “CAP Marines” would add to the benefit calculus. I’d say continue partner building and advising. No to semi-permanent or permanent installments that will inevitably lead to mission creep, and can create bad feelings among Filipino partners who may see that shift in mission as America bossing around the Philippines.
What also can be done is to shore up the capabilities of the PA Corps of Engineers and PN Combat Engineers. A lot of civilian building projects can generate good will among the local population, while also providing opportunity for units of more than one nation to work together to build camaraderie. Of course a lot of civilian projects have direct military applications in times of war, such as the same skills being used to build military fortifications.
I’d also like focus to be on the US Marines and PMC to do more exercises pertaining to the new doctrine of quickly setting up fires, shoot, breakdown, scoot. Continual training together prepares one for the real deal down the road, until the training becomes like clockwork and second nature. Heavy emphasis will be on missile forces and artillery in any Pacific War. That’s what the US Marines are focusing on now, augmented by drones and unmanned systems to gather intelligence. It’s a great opportunity for the PMC to learn as well, even more of an opportunity if the US is paying for the training exercises and providing the equipment.
Of utmost importance is how the forces of different countries can integrate together in times of war. This is why the early focus of NATO was to standardize weapon systems and small arms calibers, and why we have the “NATO Standard.” There is no time to standardize when a full blown war is happening already. Logistics are eased when partners use the same ammunition and equipment. This is also the reason why “Major non-NATO allies” often also use the NATO standard.
karl, is this guy saying the Philippines pays the US for these deployments? This is way above my pay grade, I thought the Philippines is just paying for armaments or as part of some loan scheme, etc. please clarify if you’re familiar with this. am not.
ps —- I don’t know how that would be related to this:
Saw that comment on Joe’s Twitter. I think it’s an AI bot judging from its other posts.
That being said, what the bot said is most likely completely wrong and probably based on speculation from bad data points. Any common sense person would conclude that the Philippines, and indeed any nation hosting US bases greatly benefits economically even if the host nation does pay for some things (usually on the civilian side). For the Philippines, even more so now that the EDCA is more in line with US agreements with other countries in terms of partnership and respect. Plus the AFP just doesn’t have funds to buy enough new modern equipment, so part of the EDCA deal that’s unwritten is that the US will “forget” assets, weapons, ammo, equipment at the EDCA bases, which of course the Philippines controls with full Filipino sovereignty. This is to get around diplomatically as to not unduly antagonize China. For years China has been using grey zone tactics to bully the Philippines so I find it interesting that the Philippines + US figured out our own version of undeniably in order to rearm the AFP.
Defense funding is regularly given by the US to the Philippines for specific purposes. This is separate from EDCA.
LOL. makes sense i’d not look into it, though most bots I’m familiar with in twitter are usually in bikini or their undies. half of my followers are this. lol.
I’m with you re funding it should be a one way street, where the Philippines part for ROI is simply to resist or counter China. that’s it. from US with love.
The bikini ones are Chinese crypto scammers.
Well it’s not exactly a one way street. Yes, the US is providing funding and the US is a generous partner, but a more capable Philippines is also in the national interest of both the US and the Philippines. Almost all US donations advance one or more things in these areas: increasing economic resilience of the partner, defense enhancements that are in line with US national interest (and often in the interest of the partner as well), promoting trade, promoting human rights and the rule of law.
This is the point, or 1/3 of the point, of this article. start populating the seas around Benham Rise, so you block Chinese fishermen cuz that’s how they do this. How it starts. Then CCP “protects” Benham Rise et al for their fishermen illegally there, and Philippines is assed out. again. China’s hungry, it wants to gobble up the Philippines, so Filipinos need to be in these seas. not just PNP-MG or PCG or even US Marines but Filipinos out there claiming these seas by simply being there. with cameras, even live stream if possible. CAP Marines can totally help in this. They are looking at this thinking, YES! block China. don’t just give it to them w/out a fight.
The goal does look good, even as I can hardly comment on the details as I don’t have a clue about this kind of stuff. Looking at what happened to the idea of WPS joint patrols, your idea might need other diplomatic packaging.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Relations_between_France_and_NATO is what I am reminded of when I look at US-Philippine defence relations. There is a similar element of not wanting to look too “dominated.” But diplomacy isn’t our pay grade for sure.
The French are famously prideful people despite the US “saving” them in two world wars. Granted, the postwar period saw the US briefly as the sole superpower and America used force of will to refashion the global order. I guess in my historical reading, de Gaulle felt that France should have a higher position rather than having the US as “first among equals.” The French were also upset that the US basically strong armed France into letting go of her major colonies during the US push for decolonization, which the French thought they can go back to owning. A quite old type of Germanic type of pride I’d add.
Gaullisme still informs French thinking to this day if their military and foreign dealings. The French military has an ethos of self-sufficiency, partners be damned, which reflects in their military equipment and force design. This behavior can also be seen during the invasion of Ukraine, where Macron made many bombastic offers to try to one-up Germany and the US, which brought a lot of mockery upon Germany although if one looks at the numbers Germany has provided much more assistance to Ukraine than France has. Macron even started copying Zelenskyy’s dress and mannerisms (complete with the scraggly beard) to look tougher. Recently the US authorized upwards to 100 F-16 transfers, so what did the French do? France said they will transfer 20 Mirage 2000s, which are quite obsolete by now. Well, have to allow the French to have their pride I suppose.
I think leaders in the Philippines besides the anomaly of Duterte recognize the weakened state of the AFP and that they need US and allied help. The innate Filipino low-grade nationalism and decades of anti-US NPA propaganda makes the majority of regular Filipinos hold a very confused form of nationalism IMHO. I think the EDCA agreement was a perfect solution to the national security issues while balancing with the concerns (misinformed or not) of regular Filipinos. EDCA is more in line with modern US agreements with let’s say Germany, Italy, UK, Greenland, Japan, South Korea. You’re right it’s all about diplomatic packaging and the diplomats on both sides did a good job here crafting the EDCA during Aquino’s time.
Seems like my comment got thrown into auto-moderation again 😅
Your proposal must have roomn for stopping blast fishing. Rich or poor must be informed and stopped.
http://www.oneocean.org/overseas/may99/a_closer_look_at_blast_fishing_in_the_philippines.html
karl, I’m thinking this will be the perfect mission for PAO/PSYOPS Marines. like all the anti-smoking ads in the 90s that got a lot of people to quit smoking but got into vaping instead. but this is more Mad Men type mission. with the wider focus on positive plus on the culture, not just sales but maybe ridicule of said practice.
About the Maritime Inter-agency exercise.
https://region11.bfar.da.gov.ph/2024/10/21/joint-maritime-exercise-tests-inter-agency-response-and-cooperation-against-maritime-crime/
Sharing my articles
https://maritimereview.ph/roadmaps-and-programs-part-1-of-4/
Against this backdrop, the National Coast Watch Center is being inaugurated to serve as the national maritime single point of contact for maritime security coordination. The Philippine National Coast Watch Center (NCWC) is an inter-agency maritime surveillance and coordinated response facility established through Executive Order 57 signed by President Benigno Simeon Aquino III last 06-September-2011. It is established as a coordinating and implementing mechanism in a whole-of-government approach to address current and future maritime safety, security, and environmental protection challenges in the Philippines.
Mission of the Center. The mission of the NCWC is to coordinate and implement the whole of government efforts to protect the Philippine national interests against security threats, enforce national sovereignty and sovereign rights, and fulfill international responsibilities and obligations throughout the maritime jurisdiction of the country.
Purpose of the Center. The main purpose for the establishment of the NCWC is to promote maritime safety, enforce maritime laws, protect the marine environment and contribute to economic development.
Functions of the Center. Pursuant to EO 57 and EO 82, the Center shall have the following functions:
https://maritimereview.ph/strengthening-our-inter-agency-cooperation-to-protect-our-national-interests/
We share the same Maritime Space. A recent meeting of PN FOIC and the commandant of the PCG forged an agreement to complement one another in fulfilling their mission. Here are some of the pronouncements:
We are not competitors. We share the same maritime space. The problems in the maritime area are the same problem(s) (we face),” FOIC VADM Giovanni Bacordo PN said during the visit of Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) Commandant, ADM George Ursabia, at the Navy headquarters in Naval Station Jose Andrada along Roxas Boulevard, Manila on Tuesday, 11-November-2020.
ADM Ursabia, meanwhile, said the PCG needs the help of the Navy and maritime agencies, such as the Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources (BFAR), in protecting the country’s waters. “There are a lot of users in the sea but there are also a lot of violators to the sea and our job is to ensure safety, security, and a clean ocean and seas. Hence, we really need the PN (Philippine Navy) and other agencies such as BFAR, (Bureau of) Customs, and others, to help us achieve this. This meeting will be a start and we are looking forward (to) strengthen our partnership,” he said. ADM Ursabia expressed his appreciation for the two maritime organization’s continued “harmonious relationship.”[2]
DND, PCG ready to protect PH waters. Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana said that the country’s security sector would “always be ready” to protect the maritime industry from any threats, as he stressed that the administration’s resolve to promote economic development and protect the natural resources in the Philippine waters.
“The Department of National Defense earnestly supports our maritime industry by ensuring maritime security and by contributing to an environment that is conducive [to] trade and commerce [growth],” SND Lorenzana said, based on the statement read by DND Undersecretary Arnel Duco.
SND Lorenzana also added the DND is “fully supportive” of the Maritime Industry Development Plan (MIDP) 2019 to 2028, which he deemed as the “first-ever comprehensive plan that aims to chart the future of our maritime industry.”
“With MIDP, various government agencies such as the Philippine Coast Guard (PCG), the Philippine National Police (PNP), the Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources (BFAR), and the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP), with the Philippine Navy, address maritime terrorism, piracy, armed robbery at sea, transnational crimes, illegal fishing, and marine environmental degradation,” the Defense Chief said.
While the PCG, through its representative, PCG deputy commandant for operations Vice Admiral Leopoldo Laroya, said the “complex problem” of security risks in the Philippine waters will not cease unless the government can address its “roots and causes.” He noted the illegal gas exploitation and unregulated fishing in the Philippine Rise, the reclamation activities of China in the disputed West Philippine Sea, maritime terrorism, kidnapping, human trafficking, and smuggling of goods in southwest Mindanao. VADM Laroya, nevertheless, ensured that the PCG would exhaust all means to pursue a “safe, clean and secure maritime environment, by means of “sustained vigilance and strict monitoring efforts.”[3]
Latest developments of the NMP. A newly updated resolution on the National Marine Policy (NMP) strengthens the collaboration between the government and private sector for the long-term improvement of the maritime industry.
The resolution, submitted to President Rodrigo Duterte as represented by Executive Secretary Salvador Medialdea during the 2020 National Marine Summit on October 29 and 30, was unanimously drafted, approved, and adopted by industry leaders for the sustainable development of the country’s maritime assets and interests.
Among the many provisions of NMP includes the allocation of public investments for the development of ports and other coastal infrastructures, procurement of maritime safety and security systems to save lives and properties at sea and prevent maritime accidents, establishing a community-based marine and coastal management systems, and formulation of the “Bantay Dagat Bill.”[4]
https://maritimereview.ph/our-national-security-interests/
National Security Policy 2017-2022 is a declaration of the government’s commitment to continuously develop a national security system that is rules-based, able to effectively respond not only to security threats but also to opportunities beneficial to the national interest. Enhancing the process, scope, and organizational cohesiveness of the national security system is imperative for the Government, with the support of the Filipino people, to act in coherence with the National Security Agenda.
National Security. Our National Security Strategy defines national security as a “state or condition wherein the nation’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, the people’s well-being, core values, way of life, and the State and its institutions, are protected and enhanced.”
Our National Security Interest can be achieved by:
Developing a dynamic, inclusive, and sustainable economy;
Ensuring maritime and airspace security;
Safeguarding national sovereignty and territorial integrity;
Promoting human and ecological security.
In order to attain these end-states, there is a need to build a credible deterrence capability in defense, law enforcement, and enhance mutual defense arrangements with other countries.
Security Sector Reform (SSR)
Unfortunately, the security establishments have human rights abuse records, especially during Martial law. Today, the endless insurgencies still seem endless.
What is SSR?
SSR is the political and technical process of improving state and human security by making security provision, management, and oversight more effective and more accountable, within a framework of democratic civilian control, rule of law, and respect for human rights.
SSR concerns all state and non-state actors involved in security provision, management, and oversight; and emphasizes the links between their roles, responsibilities, and actions. SSR also involves aspects of justice provision, management, and oversight because security and justice are closely related.
SSR can include a wide range of different reform activities covering all political and technical aspects of security, including among others, legislative initiatives; policy-making; awareness-raising and public information campaigns; management and administrative capacity building; infrastructure development; and improved training and equipment.
Philippine Experience
The Philippines can achieve SSR by:
Increasing Civilian Capacity for Defense Management
Establishing an Active Constituency Supportive of Security Sector Reform
Prudent Budget Preparation & Execution
Supporting a Local Defense Industry
Intelligent & Coherent Policy Development & Execution
A New National Defense Act
National Defense Act
The National Defense Act was formulated by General MacArthur as a reaction to Japanese aggression. The intent was to have an Army by training as much as they can from the reserves. The other major services were created by the succeeding Administrative Code Executive Orders.
To be in consonance with the principles of the 1987 Constitution, the National Defense Act should be re-codified.
However, passing a National Defense and Security Act has been a frustration since the 13th Congress. One Defense pundit submits that before we think about legislating a National Defense Act, we must first have Strategic Thinking.
AFP Modernization
Chinese aggression made our leaders plan for shifting policy to external defense, thus the legislation of an AFP Modernization Act was necessary, but economic shocks and all-out wars against never-ending insurgencies made us shift back to focusing on Internal Defense.
The Procurement law also makes it difficult for AFP Modernization to proceed.
AFP procurement involves classified information most of the time. It may be necessary for Defense purchases to be handled by a procurement body dedicated to the AFP.
Another area of concern is our track record of requirements that make it next to impossible for a local company to manufacture defense equipment. One solution is licensed production. Our local shipbuilders could purchase designs from abroad and build ships locally.
Kalayaan retail bonds as fund source:
Since Malampaya and Selling Bases is just a short-term solution, we need to reconsider the 10 Billion retail bond proposal.
Philippine Defense Reform (PDR)
The PDR spanned through President Arroyo’s term to the end of Pres. Benigno S. Aquino’s term in June 2016.
The program’s key areas of reform were:
Implementation of a policy-driven, multi-year defense planning system;
Improve operational and training capacity;
Improve logistics capacity;
Develop effective personnel management systems;
Plan, program, and execute a multiyear capability upgrade program for the AFP;
Optimize the defense budget and improve management controls;
Create a professional acquisition workforce and establish a centrally managed defense acquisition system;
Increase the capability of the AFP to conduct civil-military operations; and,
Develop accurate baseline data on critical AFP functional areas.
Philippine Defense Transformation
During Pres. Benigno Aquino’s administration, the PDR program was renamed PDT with a slight reconfiguration of goals. It is summarized here in this short read.
Our Maritime Philippines
Through the years, various security threats, lawlessness, crime at seas, and terrorism proliferated and continue to do so.
We have witnessed how the Abu Sayyaf dispatched with impunity, exacerbated by foreign terrorists. Maritime Law Enforcement is such a Herculean task; it calls for an all-government approach. In 2011, then President Benigno Aquino III signed EO number 57 establishing a National Coast Watch System.
The National Coast Watch System (NCWS) is our all-government approach to Maritime Issues and Maritime Security. This System was to be the answer to the absence of interagency cooperation among the various Maritime Agencies.
The Process of developing Maritime Security Policies is very problematic because of our archipelagic and maritime nature. The National Marine Policy which is of importance is shown as Exhibit A. The NMP badly needs updating.
The Effectiveness of the NCWS is hindered by a lack of command and control. Fragmented institutions, asked to coordinate and cooperate, are always in search of a lead agency or even a super body like the IATF for Covid. However, the Maritime Law Enforcement agencies seem to be doing their own thing.
For the lack of command and control issues, it is highly recommended EO 57 be amended to address the absence of command and control. Once there is a lead agency, coordination would definitely run smoother.
Maritime Disasters from boat accidents to large vessels burning and sinking have plagued us through the years. Accidents happen but can be prevented. Much has been said about interagency cooperation and coordination to address perennial overlapping functions among agencies. Several round table discussions among focus groups have formulated strategies and submitted white papers only to have them fall on blind eyes and deaf ears or perhaps our “ningas cogon” quirk took the best of us more often than not.
Presidential Certification of Urgency
Several bills related to Maritime Safety and/or Maritime Governance have been filed and refiled in congress such as:
The creation of a National Transport Safety Board
Maritime Code of the Philippines
Creation of Admiralty Courts
Maritime Administration Act
At present, the current Maritime Administration of our government is thinly spread among fourteen bureaus and agencies under seven departments. The fragmentation of our maritime administration has led to bureaucratic entanglement, turf wars over functional overlaps, and conflicting maritime laws and regulations. The restructuring of maritime administration is the first step in creating one super body consisting of maritime bureaus and agencies.
The creation of a National Transportation and Safety Board is a major step to promote transportation safety by conducting independent safety investigations and by formulating safety improvement recommendations. Similarly, a non-regulatory independent investigative body is also needed to be tasked to handle maritime accidents and safety incident investigations.
The Maritime Code of the Philippines hopes to address the Philippines’ non-implementation of international conventions. The Bill seeks to implement these protocols with MARINA as the lead agency. The Maritime Code will make our local safety laws and regulations coherent with international safety laws.
Lastly, the creation of specialized Maritime Courts will unclog our courts of numerous maritime case backlogs and will speed up the resolution of Maritime-related cases.
Like the National Defense Act Legislation, the Biazons have filed these bills as far back as the 13th Congress. Certifications of urgency from past presidents were badly needed but certain circumstances prevented the bills’ passage.
Maritime Environment
The Philippines was one of six beneficiary ASEAN countries that participated in the technical assistance project of the International Maritime Organization (IMO) and the Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation (Norad). The project had the overall objective of assisting participating countries in protecting the marine environment in the region through accelerating the ratification and implementation of IMO conventions relating to marine environment protection.
The other participating countries were Cambodia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam. The IMO conventions covered by the project were the International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships (Marpol), Ballast Water Management Convention (BWM), Anti-Fouling System Convention (AFS), and the London Convention/Protocol (Anti-Dumping of Waste).
The Philippines has been lagging behind in the ratification and implementation of IMO conventions relating to the prevention of pollution from ships. It took the Philippines 30 years to accede to Marpol, one of the main regulatory pillars for shipping; and eighteen (18) years after acceding to the convention, Congress has yet to pass the legislation that will implement the convention.
One sticky issue confronting the ratification and implementation of maritime conventions pertains to the question of which agency has the mandate to implement maritime regulatory functions.
The Philippines thus created through a Department Order the Inter-agency Coordinating Committee for the Ratification and Implementation of Maritime Conventions (ICCRIMC) which served as the venue for dialogues among the various stakeholders in respect of the benefits and disadvantages of ratifying and implementing the BWM and the AFS conventions.
I hope the Legislative-Executive Development Advisory Council (LEDAC) could meet more often to discuss bills that require certification of urgency including those that will enable us to accede to international conventions and treaties.
What’s the protocol right now, karl, when Chinese civilian vessels fishing goes into Benham Rise etc in Philippine waters? and is there a process in which Filipino fishermen big and small are coordinated to go out, in order to counter Chinese fishermen? thanks. is there a civilian component to populating these waters? or just military/police?
how often is this happening, karl?
Joey : “Maritime policing of Philippines fisheries and sovereign borders should be be with Filipinos proudly taking the lead, and all evidences points to this being the case.”
I’m not arguing the US Marines take the lead here, Joey. as you can see above karl has shared, its herculean sisyphean even for PNP-MG and PCG to cover all the above. so theres room for some help, I’m just adding the cultural awakening portion of it via CAP Marines. but theres no one saying in the Philippines we could use less help here.
Old school policing of borders (sea in the case of Philippines) using manpower is outdated. If the US can’t plug all the holes in her borders using traditional methods, there’s no way the Philippines can no matter how many new patrols vessels the PCG and BFAR can get. Then there’s the question of how to man all those vessels. There’s no detection network set up as well, as even if illegal activity is reported by the time PCG and BFAR gets there, the poachers are long gone.
A smarter way to leverage limited resources (both in manpower and vessels) is to split the Human Resources on a grid, while moving patrol to manned and unmanned (drones) aircraft. Equipped with thermo-optical sensors and FLIR, manned light patrol aircraft can cover a wide area, detect heat signatures and alert nearby authorities to respond. Drones don’t need rest and can keep patrolling as long as they have fuel; many drones are extremely high endurance. With the end of the GWOT, the US has many Predator drones that can be probably de-militarized (removal of weapons) while keeping the thermo-optical sensors and FLIR. That’d be the smart way to go in terms of patrolling borders for illegal activity.
Agreed. drones will be more in use with CAP Marines. I don’t know if Anduril makes sea sensors, but that too if they have ’em. This all will be part of the EABO/SIF mission. more so than maritime policing, but information will trickle down to PNP-MG and PCG i’m sure. force multipliers will be key. of course. Can we cover PAO-PsyOPS now, that’s my original input here. the part more in line to Joe’s 2028 and blog in general. karl can cover the PNP-MG and PCG aspect. I’d like to tackle Ireneo’s and your’s int’l diplomacy too. but my take on diplomacy of all this is new types of arrangement need to be hammered out, sure take in account the old what’s been done, but like Outer Space Treaty etc. new arrangements have to be created.
No, not CAP Marines haha. Traditional civilian maritime policing, but modernized.
Anduril is still a newish/small company and they seem to have their hands full with their other projects. As for GWOT specific intelligence gathering drones that are no longer that useful militarily in contested airspace, there are about 360 older General Atomics Predator drones and over 300 larger/newer Reaper (Predator-B) drones. I’m sure the US would rather give away “gently used” equipment then trashing it. We keep a lot of old stuff in the Arizona boneyards since it looks bad to destroy taxpayer-funded assets.
Let’s say it might take a half dozen de-militarized Predators to patrol Luzon/Bikol, another half dozen for Palawan and Mindoro. Western Visayas/Negros and Central/Eastern Visayas may need a dozen each. Mindanao may need a dozen due to size. Have another dozen to patrol Sulu/Tawi-Tawi and the surrounding offshore seas. That’d be roughly 60 patrol drones keeping eyes on things. Maybe 3/4 of that number may already be sufficient. thermo-optical and FLIR sensors everywhere, watching out for poachers, smugglers, drug runners. I think I mentioned before during extended stays in Cebu, my favorite spot was to watch the sunrise or sunset in Cordova, Mactan across from Cebu City. It was not unusual to observe rice smuggler/drug runners come ashore in small motor bangka, and by the time the police responded (if the police even responded), the criminals were long gone.
Not sure why you’re against drones and AI. I’m against AI in the civilian space because I think it’s 90% hype and generally a waste of resources (Linus Trovalds, the creator of Linux agrees and his opinion usually ends up being correct). The reason why civilian AI fails is because it’s trained on crappy data. Military AI however is completely different, and is excellent since the mission is defined and the data it’s trained on is good data. Drones also reduce human workload. Drones assist humans with gathering broad spectrum information. Humans will still be providing the human touch and connection with analyzing and acting on that information.
Our Coast Guard is civilian.
LCX,
If it is FMF or FMS we pay US.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Foreign_Military_Financing?wprov=sfla1
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign_Military_Sales?wprov=sfla1
What is your plan of financing?
Karl, for partner developing nations, the US usually dispenses military assistance in the form of FMF, which is often later forgiven after being reclassified as grants or restructured into alternative programs such as “debt for nature” to encourage environmental protection.
See the linked recent report by the nonpartisan Congressional Research Service.
https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R40213
Relevant portions:
“Debt Forgiveness
The United States has also forgiven some debts owed by foreign governments and encouraged, with mixed success, other foreign aid donors and international financial institutions to do likewise. In some cases, the decision to forgive foreign aid debts has been based largely on economic grounds as another means to support development efforts by heavily indebted, but reform-minded, countries. The United States has been one of the strongest supporters of the Heavily Indebted Poor Country (HIPC) Initiative and the Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative (MDRI). These initiatives, which began in the late 1990s, include participation of the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, and other international financial institutions in a comprehensive debt workout framework for the world’s poorest and most debt-strapped nations. USAID and the Department of the Treasury have also implemented “debt-for-nature” swaps, in which foreign debt is purchased, sometimes at discounted rates, and restructured into local currency that can be implemented as environmental conservation programs.
The largest and most hotly debated debt forgiveness actions have been implemented for much broader foreign policy reasons with a more strategic purpose. Examples include Poland, during its transition from a communist system and centrally planned economy (1990—$2.46 billion);
Egypt, for making peace with Israel and helping maintain the Arab coalition during the Persian Gulf War (1990- $7 billion); and Jordan, after signing a peace accord with Israel (1994$700 million). Similarly, the United States forgave about $4.1 billion in outstanding Saddam Hussein-era Iraqi debt in November 2004 and helped negotiate an 80% reduction in Iraq’s debt to creditor nations later that month.”
“Loan/Grant Composition
During the past two decades, nearly all foreign aid —military as well as economic-has been provided in grant form. While loans represented 32% of total military and economic assistance between 1962 and 1988, this figure declined substantially beginning in the mid-1980s, until by FY Y2001, loans represented less than 1% of total aid appropriations. The de-emphasis on loan programs came largely in response to the debt problems of developing countries, some of which were attributable to aid loans. Both Congress and the executive branch have generally taken the view that foreign aid should not add to the already existing debt burden carried by these countries. The Trump Administration sought to shift that approach to some degree, but Congress continued its emphasis on grants.”
So in short, most foreign aid to developing nations are either grants. There is a small amount that are forgivable loans if certain conditions are met. A recent example are the “loans” to Ukraine, which will be forgiven anyway. The EU and UK do something similar but not as large scale as the US. This is why I was so exasperated with Duterte snubbing the US and EU, and went to China. China’s assistance are loans that a country can’t hope to pay back, then China demands concessions. US grants are essentially free money. But if a country wants more assistance they need to show they are making good use of the money. Of course allies tend to get more as well.
Duterte did ride on the common anti-yellow narrative that the Philippines under Aquino (and FVR) could have repudiated the debts incurred by Marcos but didn’t. I always found this a bit like classic Pinoy utangero arguments (ginigipit ako!), mixed with Far Left tropes of the “US-IMF”, i.e. the World Bank forcing FVR’s austerity and privatization unto hapless Filipinos. DDS might still have believed the Duterte “vision” (clearly pure fantasy) that China would build a train in Mindanao and many other things, unlike “yellows who built nothing from 1986-2016”. Hopefully, you can expound somewhat on that because the victim narrative of the Filipino Far Left and DDS is so pervasive even in the Philippine mainstream. I lack the details on all that.
My understanding of the debts leftover from Marcos Sr. was that the vast majority of the debts were originally private, commercial bank loans, not intergovernmental or NGO financed development debt. Even in those looser times in the past, it would be hard to imagine any government would lend Marcos Sr. seemingly endless amounts of money while accepting the opaqueness and shell games Marcos Sr., Imelda, and their cronies played. In fact the US Import-Export Bank asked the World Bank and IMF came in later in an attempt to rescue the Philippines’ economy. Over time the Philippines was offered multiple debt restructuring plans in order to get a handle on the debt. Never let facts challenge DDS and the Far Left though. Both are “anti-globalist” which is just another way of blaming all of one’s own problems on an external boogeyman. No sense of responsibility with these people. It’s always someone else’s fault.
Of course we know Imelda had a penchant for propaganda, which included what was termed later as the Marcos “Edifice Complex” of building grand Brutalist structures to show how great the Marcos Sr. dictatorship was. The biggest example of the Edifice Complex follies is the still-inactive Bataan Nuclear Plant. In addition, Imelda fancied herself a businesswoman and manager and run dozens of businesses personally “on behalf of the Filipino people.” I hate to paint Marcos Sr. as a patsy without agency, but he really did seem to be enthralled by his wife’s influence.
Here are some old newspaper investigations after Marcos Sr. fled after EDSA that shed some light upon the origin of the foreign loans:
New York Times, March 16 1986, The Marcos Empire: Gold, Oil, Land and Cash
https://archive.ph/ulH39
Washington Post, January 29 1984, Philippine Debt Stunned Lenders
https://archive.ph/zCYR2
Marcos Sr. apparently loved to invest money (which he borrowed on behalf of the Philippines), yet was not a very good investor. Maybe a symptom of the penchant for “get rich quick” schemes among certain Filipinos. Marcos Sr.’s administration also bailed out the failing businesses of his cronies, by nationalizing those businesses, some of which Imelda personally headed. Of course there was also the siphoning off of Philippines sovereign reserves initially, then siphoning off foreign loans into Swiss bank accounts by converting it into gold and foreign currencies.
As most of the foreign loans that funded all of this financial mismanagement were private, commercial loans, the Philippines could not just escape by repudiating the loans and refusing to pay. To do so would tank the creditworthiness (long term sovereign bond credit ratings done by the private rating agencies Standard & Poor’s, Fitch, Moody’s) of the Philippines government, and remove access to further private loans. From what I know Marcos Sr. leveraged the fact that the Philippines still had a lot of manufacturing at that time (at least the semblance of factories) and mineral wealth to obtain most of those loans. Once the private banks started to catch on, Marcos Sr. made the promise to prioritize debt payments above providing basic government functions (Presidential Decree 1177, 1977). When Marcos Sr. declared the Philippines to be bankrupt (not being able to pay the private loans) in 1983, that’s when the US stepped in to try to rescue the Philippines by convincing the World Bank and IMF to provide favorable terms to covert the private loans into NGO loans.
I’m not clear by FVR remained committed to paying the Marcos Sr. debt. If I recall FVR did re-negotiate the terms at least once. But to not pay the loans, even though they had been taken over by the World Bank and IMF, would destroy the Philippines’ private credit rating (Standard & Poor’s, Fitch, Moody’s), which would keep away private FDI and access to further private loans in case the Philippines needed it. I’m sure FVR had to make some tough decisions.
A lot of these “intellectuals” among DDS and Far Left are either confused or being disingenuous in their argument. I find it interesting they want to steer the Philippines towards obtaining PRC loans, which won’t be forgiven or restructured, and the country obtaining the loan doesn’t even get the economic benefits of the influx of money as it goes to imported Chinese labor and materials.
Marcos Sr. and Imelda Marcos were the ultimate utangero, who were addicted to buying things now and thinking about how to pay it later. Eventually that scheme broke when no one trusted them anymore. Well, many Filipinos in the lower end of the economic spectrum still act this way. One day millionaire spending, along with borrowing money to spend some more, then maybe skipping to another province to escape repayment. In the end it was the Philippines that suffered due to their actions. But as Thomas Jefferson once mused: “The government you elect is the government you deserve.”
For lower socioeconomic (DE) Filipinos, there is a notable pattern of buy now even if it requires utang, then think later. People regularly have “handa” for parties big or small, usually borrowing credit from the local sari sari or neighborhood lender. When it comes time to pay, usually excuses are offered, and if they doesn’t work I’ve seen people go from being on the verge of “tears” to immediately warfreaking on the one who dared to collect the loan. Many messages and reach outs come after months of no contact, some small talk then pivoting to asking “can I borrow 500-2k?” I got one of those messages just today. If someone is particularly close and I feel bad I’ll give a bit, but the borrower would never pay pack. Many times I think, “wow some people have no shame in asking,” as for Americans asking for even a warm meal comes with the feelings of intense shame. There’s a lot of kapal behavior.
Of course not all low income Filipinos are like that. Some try to be responsible, but they are outnumbered by the irresponsible ones who have huge families. The responsible ones also tend to be used and abused, even by their own relatives. It’s not unusual as I shared before to find a single OFW supporting an entire “tribe.” For young (and old haha) women who engage in AFAM hunting, the amount of magastos and hambogera can be shocking. Suddenly they’ll go from having nothing to buying a motorcycle for their local boyfriend, holding an iPhone, living in a luxury apartment, all while many of their foreign “boyfriends” know nothing, because the two can barely communicate in English anyway as the AFAM hunter is illiterate in the local languages to begin with.
I think a lot of this behavior goes back to the old dynamic of giver-receiver during the time of datus. People just don’t have the mindset to equip them with a saver mentality. They will assume that the datu (politician, OFW, AFAM) will continue to provide, and if not they’ll switch allegiance. If no one is there to catch them then well, its trust in God and “bahala na.”
The Far Leftists and DDS seek these vulnerable people out to recruit. It’s always easier to blame someone else for one’s own bad choices. The Far Left and DDS provide easy answers, which continue to propagate because they never actually have power and are held accountable. Well DDS got power for a while and people started wising up, which I think explains for some of their loss in influence as people started blaming them. The Far Left will never capture power, which is why they can continue to shout about easy, magic bullet solutions.
Of course, I don’t think poor Filipinos should hold all the blame. They are often poor, uneducated, feeling like they can’t affect any change as one person so they don’t realize their own personal agency to at least make some small positive changes in their own lives. Often people don’t start changing for the better until they have been completely cut off from all aid, realized they don’t want to suffer anymore, and start taking initiative. I fully believe the dynasts continue to deemphasize education and empowerment to keep people compliant. It’s a toxic spinning wheel and I’m not sure how the wheel can be broken. I don’t have that much faith in most Filipino leaders, so the only choice I see is for non-governmental people and private citizens to keep sharing how life can be better.
History may be “then,” as Joe said, but I can’t help but think that there were many lost chances in the past. All the national sins compound over time and the problem became much worse. Sure we can say that there are better roads and such now compared to around the time Joe and I first went to the Philippines. But those are cosmetic things. For regular Filipinos who are not in OFW or BPO, I feel that life has actually gotten worse.
so true, utang now pay later type of loan to kickstart a business and the moment, I give in, my relatives disappear never to repay loans. blessing in disguise. they dont cross my path again, and I got my blessed peace. I only give what I can afford to lose, so no skin off my nose, really. and now that christmas is coming, some relatives will come out of the woodwork, but the erring ones stay out of sight, hallelujah. and just to put up the pressure, I mention them now and then and their obligation to me they have yet to meet. I feel like machiavelli that maybe I have made their world smaller and made them on the run. but if they ask forgiveness, I’ll probly forgive them and let bygones be bygone, but no more loans for them again.
for filipinos who arent ofw of bpo, they can survive economic doldrums by being on top of their game. finishing education is important for it opens gates to friendships with the haves and those in the know, unveiling a bigger and wider network where jobs can be found. competition is fierce, but a good word put in by a friend can get you an interview, and the rest is up to you. so brush up your best resume ever and talk your way to success. talking should be easy, you’ve done tons of researches and numerous presentations at college/university and you’d become fast on your feet in answering questions, from both your professors and fellow students. and gotten good grades for it, so apply it in real life.
“I mention them now and then and their obligation to me they have yet to meet. “ LOL! kb, you should add that you’ve increased the interest on said loans. lol. then hint on hiring death squads.
thanks for the tip!
congrats, corporal, you have a new president. well, well, well, your country seems to have its own version of D and E voters, haha. lots of them, joe biden did say there are ‘garbage’ in america. I think, philippines and estados unidos will go along fine.
Totally D & E voters, kb. that’s who came out to vote for Trump, at least for black and Hispanic males. I still wanna see the statistics on Filipinos for Trump in NV. cuz those would be casino workers not just medical field i’m assuming.
Most Trump voters are middle class angry White GenX who think they deserve more money, actually. They aren’t poor, otherwise they wouldn’t have money to follow him around in his rallies or go to the capitol on Jan 6.
they didnt go there by their own private jets, did they? I heard there was text sent around, and the next minute, a humongous mob come in droves, gunman included.
elon musk and his alleged one million cash incentive or so for voters . . . in philippines’s own version, that would be hakot crowd, bussed in. flown in, passage assured, aha! there really is such thing as free lunch so come on come all.
I think with our 16 T PHP debt, we will need any moratorium.
https://www.rappler.com/voices/thought-leaders/analysis-urgent-bold-just-effective-program-address-developing-country-debt-crisis/
Supposedly the old Marcos debts that were transferred to World Bank and IMF loans will be repaid by 2025.
The Philippines still has an addiction to foreign loans though, because the Philippines economy just can’t generate enough new money for domestic projects that are needed. I worry that if there is an economic downturn or change in global economy that removes the OFW remittances or BPO income that the Philippines will be line for a lot of economic hurt. Marcos Jr. especially has taken great lengths to pay commitments on time to maintain the Philippines’ international credit rating (this is for private, commercial loans).
There are problems with thinking out projects fully, and with implementation. Both wastes borrowed money. Siphoning off money due to corruption at all levels probably doesn’t help.
I disagree with almost all of the points in that opinion article though, then I realized I had read it before and it was submitted by Walden Bello, who I despise. He’s a classic supposedly “reformed” Far Leftist who blames everyone else except for the mistakes of the successive governments. Once I had seen his remarks praising fellow Far Leftist Hugo Chavéz for “sticking it to the US” and lavishing money on poor Venezuelans to buy votes. Well Venezuela isn’t doing so great right now.
They tried the TRAIN law and more taxes after that and still collection if ever exceeds forecasts they will jump for joy because of their “hard work”.
Still this bureaucracy is full of employees paid by borrowed money. Then we borrow money to pay for borrowed money.
I did not support TRAIN because of the heavy emphasis on regressive excise taxes, though the problem it sought to address must be acknowledged. I just don’t feel comfortable with pushing more of the tax burden onto the poor because it’s easier to go for tariffs and excise taxes, than it is to hire an army of competent CPAs and lawyers to collect the tax owed by the rich. I guess the rich have even bigger armies… But that doesn’t address why the nation is cash poor, which is because most of the people are too poor to pay any useful amount of taxes and there are not enough businesses that generate value-add for export. It’s a consumption society.
I still maintain that the Philippines government should hire you and I. We will make good trouble and cut red tape with a big pair of scissors on day one (or day two). After that we will jump for joy during merienda before getting back to work.
Well, a state that isn’t even able to collect SSS contributions – or back taxes – properly has a major issue in terms of organization. The other issue is the complaint of the Philippine middle class that they pay too much taxes. That is an issue in many countries as the rich can utilize loopholes more easily while the poor have little money. In the Philippines, the middle class might correctly see precious little services rendered for their taxes. Though voting for those who just shift the burden and not those who improve government can’t be the right thing either.
Yes, and that’s why the new middle class went strongly for Duterte and Marcos Jr. They thought Duterte and Marcos Jr. would protect their new, hard fought wealth that is still on shaky financial security. Interestingly, a sizeable portion of the new middle class ended up blaming Marcos Jr. for the effects of Duterte’s policies.
As the new middle class have salaried jobs, it’s simple to collect PIT, SSS and PhilHealth from their paycheck. The poor mostly use cash or barter, and can’t be taxed effectively. The rich have CPAs and lawyers to evade (“cooking” their books) and avoid (loopholes) taxes. And this is why the Philippines will continue to be on the edge of being poor. The rich don’t have sufficient patriotism to pay back into the government and society they benefited from and enables their businesses to prosper, while there is not enough effective tax enforcement to make up for that lack of patriotism. If the carabao is milked long enough without feeding it, the carabao will first become more thin, then it will die.
finance sec recto is hellbent in getting more tax come hell and highwater. he is even imposing 12 per cent vat tax on foreign digital service providers, and sort of confiscating philhealth’s idle stash if money to be used where it is most needed, but has gotten tro, temporary restraining order, from the court. so no, recto cannot dip his hands into philhealth – yet.
as well filipinos, fearing recto will dip into their bank savings, have taken to investing their moneys overseas where recto’s well manicured fingers cannot touch them.
filipinos may complain to the high heavens about the amount of tax they are being charged, but recto has the heavenly mandate to pursue tax evaders and make them cough up the money for tax, or else.
poor people whose income fall below the tax threshold (30K per yr) dont need to pay tax. those who are being paid cash for their services may not feel the need to pay tax as there is no invoice to sum up at the end of financial year, they just have to be careful and prepared, in case the firm they work with caught the attention of the internal revenue, and they may all be forced to cooperate with tax office.
Quite interesting that the Philippines strategy is always to milk those who have less money for taxes, besides Aquino’s attempt on reform. Perhaps the leaders are afraid their campaign benefactors will not contribute next time. If the rich paid even part of their fair share of taxes, the Philippines would already be on better footing to invest in native industry building. But I guess, the rich may just steal back the tax they paid on income they gained from stealing in the first place.
Walden Bello was in Akbayan from 1998-2015.
It’s good that he isn’t in that party anymore.
Walden Bello is a prime example of an entryist. He was quite vocal against President Aquino when Aquino wouldn’t “do all the things™” that Bello demanded, despite Bello being a singular figure with many disagreeing to his positions. I remember he left in a hissy fit and tried to burn the entire Aquino coalition down. Classic pilosopo Filipino Far Leftist who has a lot of flowery words and angry polemics to sway impressionable shallow-thinking people, yet no actual plans, just “trust in my words.” Which brings to mind… Bello is quite popular among the Cebu university student Far Left crowd. The same groups that the deceased attorney Hannah Cesista participated in hung on enthralled to the words of Bello, Ocampo, Joma. Yet Bello, like Ocampo would rather praise the PRC’s greatness and righteousness, make excuses for the PRC’s bad behavior (“they were pushed”), while denigrating the Filipino’s own agency.
walden bello is apparently burgis but pretends to be poor, in order for him to continue on milking the facades of the status quo. maybe.
it is alleged that the wife he lives with is quite rich, a ceo of a certain supermarket chain, and his children are summat privately educated and certainly not starving. who knows? maybe his secret stash of renminbi is more than the wife’s, being all things oppositionist must not only be immensely gratifying but uberly uberly fruitful.
I think the real problem in society are the idle excess elites who cosplay communists or nationalists, because they are bored nihilists.
hear! hear!
The Foreign Military Financing (FMF) program is a US government initiative that funds the purchase of US defense equipment by partner nations. The US government can also execute 44 FMF funds, which means the items are transferred to the recipient country without belonging to it.
Here are some examples of FMF funding:
Let us look at GWOT as reference.
https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/GAOREPORTS-GAO-06-885T/html/GAOREPORTS-GAO-06-885T.htm
Global War on Terrorism: Observations on Funding, Costs, and Future Commitments (18-JUL-06, GAO-06-885T).
The GWOT was a huge folly in US policy that was largely paid for by selling US Bonds, adding an immense amount to the US deficit. I think most Americans, including W. Bush officials, realized a few years in after the major goals had been accomplished that rebuilding two nations that did not want to rebuild was a mistake. But us Americans are hard headed and don’t want to admit we failed in accomplishing undefined goals, so we stuck with it for 20 years because what Americans hate the most is losing wars.
The GWOT also turned the US Military into a COIN force dominated by SOCOM, degrading US institutional knowledge on how to fight “big wars.” So in the end the US has to re-learn everything it forgot. Such is the cycle of Americans, as we did that in the periods prior to WWI and WWII also.
What the US Military is re-learning now is in a peer or near-peer conflict, it is unaffordable to focus on fewer high-end, exquisitely expensive assets. It’s always nice to have the most expensive toys, but one would cry if that got blown up. Instead the US is starting to move towards affordability and “a step ahead of the enemy is good enough.” I’ve been a plane enthusiast since I was a kid, and I love sleek fighter planes as much as any other military observer. I followed the 5th gen developments closely. But with the 6th generation, the USAF is seriously re-examining the NGAD proposal to redo it into an affordable escort fighter rather than a high-end sports car. Bombers will rule again as the era of the Fighter Mafia is ending. The B-21 bomber will probably take on air-to-air roles as it can carry a huge number of AAMs, combined with powerful sensor suites, while the re-imagined NGAD will carry out escort and blocking roles for the bomber “quarterback.” The same goes for the US Army and US Marines, who are now pivoting to more mobile lightly armored forces that focus on artillery both tube and rocket variety. What was learned in the US entry into WWII is now being learned again.
OT, memory lane:
“CAP Marines failed because goals became undefined as the marine platoons “went native” and due to lack of defined, achievable goals.”
Efficacy and measures of success, we’ve already covered, Joey. so will just answer with link here:
https://joeam.com/2024/10/24/all-about-philippine-development/#comment-493174
“This is why I bristle a bit at the characterization that CAP Marines needed to save villagers from ARVN. Sure sometimes mistakes were made, just like the numerous mistakes the US made, it’s war.” I’m thinking those “mistakes” were more plentiful than you’re acknowledging here, Joey. though I’m no Vietnam war expert, much of what i know is from movies, especially the one with Michael J. Fox. But I have met plenty of Vietnam war vets, not just Marines, and this was a common complaint that South Vietnamese especially gov’t military police were really abusive towards other South Vietnamese either sympathetic to communists or just simply out of favor from ruling culture (ie. Catholic , French, etc.). Maybe Joe can shed more light here.
“The Catholics were mostly vehemently anti-communist and the most effective ARVN soldiers, while the Buddhists had split views and often had communist sympathizers in their own families. My family are Catholics so it’s obvious which side we were on. “ I appreciate the exposition on said bias, Joey. In the Philippines , i guess it would be Catholics vs. Muslims, but Moros didn’t really go all in with Filipino communists, though plenty of times they worked together. so I guess the divide is more on ABCDE classes. AB pissing on CDEs. but my point with CAP Marines in Vietnam and what I’m proposing here in Philippines is that modern day CAP Marines would also be with DE Filipinos in those islands.
“It seems that we have differing ideas of what “CAP Marines” mean. CAP Marines in the Vietnam War were not a policing operation. It was a territory holding operation. In effect it was also a propaganda operation to counter communist influence. “ By CAP Marines in Philippines, I mean for them to just help out in maritime policing, but will also be doing EABO/SIF. Stand-in Forces Defined: SIF are small but lethal, low signature, mobile, relatively simple to maintain and sustain forces designed to operate across the competition continuum within a contested area as the leading edge of a maritime defense-in-depth in order to intentionally disrupt the plans of a potential or actual adversary. Depending on the situation, stand-in forces are composed of elements from the Marine Corps, Navy, Coast Guard, special operations forces, interagency, and allies and partners.
“But see the thing is the US military already has contingents of military advisors in the Philippines by invitation of the President of the Philippines. Not sure how “CAP Marines” would add to the benefit calculus.” this would be more population centric, Joey. though maritime policing would augment PNP-MG and PCG, and training and advising therein, the bulk would be to benefit CDE Filipinos in the islands mentioned, eg. disaster preparedness, figuring out how fishermen can counter Chinese fishermen, changing mindsets in regards to illegal fishing like dynamite fishing, and protecting species demanded by the Chinese market, like sea turtles, shark fins , even pangolins. etc. etc. military advisors in general don’t do this, but CAP Marines can.
“No to semi-permanent or permanent installments that will inevitably lead to mission creep, and can create bad feelings among Filipino partners who may see that shift in mission as America bossing around the Philippines.” This is actually also what I’m worried about, bad feelings among Filipinos. but not from the CAP Marines, because that’s the success of CAP Marines in Vietnam, villagers took ’em in as family in turn CAP Marines adopted (protected not just in military sense but familial) villagers. And why I had issues with libbo of US military going into port and Mango Ave. and such, cuz another Pemberton case will screw up my CAP Marines idea. But once the relationship is established, i gotta feeling a Pemberton case won’t really ding it cuz its all the way in islands. so its just a matter of getting it going. as time unfolds, CAP Marines will prove their own worth.
But the success in Vietnam was mostly due to CAP Marines being really young, sometimes a CPL would run a village. so this needs to be replicated keep CAP Marines young that way they’ll interact with locals better. closer knit. and Filipino Marines or PNP attached to CAP Marines in the Philippines should also ideally be as young, like new graduates of PMA so they’ll absorb all the lessons of EABO/SIF as well as maritime policing and culture building for a better Philippines. get them before corruption sets in. as is the norm for all Philippine bureaucrats, to include military and police. youth and persistent presence.
“A lot of civilian building projects can generate good will among the local population, while also providing opportunity for units of more than one nation to work together to build camaraderie.” Totally agree, Joey.
“I’d also like focus to be on the US Marines and PMC to do more exercises pertaining to the new doctrine of quickly setting up fires, shoot, breakdown, scoot. Continual training together prepares one for the real deal down the road,” you can only do so much exercises, Joey. the sinking in of said muscle memory institutionally is dependent on people. US military turn over is a problem, but so too when units rotate theres always new people to know. sure liaisons tend to coordinate for a while but these folks also rotate out. CAP Marines in the Vietnam was all about persistent presence, when they swapped or replaced people they did so 1 or 2 or 3 people at a time, which means there was always connectivity. so copying that, CAP Marines Philippines would also be similarly persistent. so again youth and persistent presence.
“No, not CAP Marines haha. Traditional civilian maritime policing, but modernized.” I’m saying CAP Marines can also bring in this resource. I’d advise providing Philippine military and police with small tech cuz those things will invariably disappear then reappear in black market.
“Not sure why you’re against drones and AI. I’m against AI in the civilian space because I think it’s 90% hype and generally a waste of resources (Linus Trovalds, the creator of Linux agrees and his opinion usually ends up being correct).” I’m against it being used for EJKs, Joey. for intel surveillance recon, totally fine. but I’m also against giving Filipinos high speed low drag items cuz they’ll just resell ’em. these items should be easy to account for. and why doing this thru CAP Marines or similar set ups makes sense. like why you don’t open up a public library there, Joe. assume things of value will disappear. cuz people gotta eat in the end.
LCX,
If it is FMF or FMS we pay US.
What is your plan of financing?
=====================
karl, I’m thinking CAP Marines be supplied with pesos as well as water purification tablets just in case, then once you off load them. either with their PMA recent grads or PNP escorts, then they should be on their own. of course after Int’l Affairs Marines have reconned the towns they’ll be setting up shop in. From there, they report back and exchange notes with other squads in other islands and towns and then fine tune. then go thru contested logistics like Joey said from Cordova town he saw rice smugglers in and out. that’s basically contested logistics which is part of their EABO/SIF mission. from there, CAP Marines will make themselves indispensable to the Filipinos in those islands, then expand.
“The GWOT also turned the US Military into a COIN force dominated by SOCOM, degrading US institutional knowledge on how to fight “big wars.” So in the end the US has to re-learn everything it forgot. “ Joey, I think USA is more of an COIN military more than WWI/WWII big lumbering formations. from French-Indian war to Barbary coast pirates, to William Clark from Lewis & Clark, its always been about leveraging indigenous locals. as to institutional knowledge, Marines wrote the Small Wars manual covering the Banana Wars, like an actual manual, but in the end its all about being as close to the population you’re fighting with or fight over, thats always been the constant. Lewis & Clark were both stationed in the frontier when that meant Appalachian mtns then before Jefferson set them to explore the Louisiana purchase from Napoleon, same issues they were complaining about then that they were cooped up in forts preventing them from knowing the population. so in that expedition they went on they both made sure to interact with locals closely. having learnt lessons. i’m sure Roman soldiers probably said something similar. being on the ground and such, is better than cloistered in forts.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Romeo_Brawner_Jr. I’d like to know more about this guy’s lolo, cuz I read the Buffalo soldiers that went there 9th and 10th Cav and 24th and 25th Infantry regiments, had a more nuanced COIN institutional knowledge from the Wild West Indian wars, wherein they leveraged them being black into the population both whites and Indians feeding them information. which they then brought to the Philippines. many even actually switching sides to the Philippines and fought for Filipinos. talk about going native. there was not much standing army then, but states stood up formations, so no institutional knowledge to dip into nor transfer over. But my point is before and after “big wars” you’ll usually have COIN type wars, so not at all that different, same conflict continuum really. you can keep doing COIN whilst training for “big wars” the two are not mutually exclusive.
“What the US Military is re-learning now is in a peer or near-peer conflict, it is unaffordable to focus on fewer high-end, exquisitely expensive assets. It’s always nice to have the most expensive toys, but one would cry if that got blown up.” This i think is the value of EABO/SIF, Joey, where other branches go back to their default settings of aerospace industry or gov’t contracts stuff. for bigger, faster, more expensive stuff. Marines default to grunts, and how the grunts can get stronger and more lethal. which I’m totally for by the way, drones and AI, closer to the ground. but aside from more lethal, US Marines gotta be smarter too. and that’s where CAP Marines come in. all that on the ground stuff, only grunts can offer. not sensors or AI or robots. and it fits perfectly to EABO/SIF, while other Marines or SOCOM train advice Philippine counterparts meaning military and police, CAP Marines do their thing on the ground where the people are. in the islands.
for example, a platoon of CAP Marines of 1 squad for each town below (total of 3 squads) can be deployed like so,
i’m just Google mapping it, but the towns are bonbon, bongliw and bonifacia, all three facing Benham rise. all three based on Google maps are tiny fishing villages.
Oh shit, small world indeed. Joey, would this guy also be related to the dude running for Congress in your parts too then?
Not sure about relation. Vietnamese family names, like other surnames originating from what’s now the Guangdong area of modern China, were originally clan names from thousands of years ago. Because of this, unless someone can definitely trace their lineage (as my family can through documentation), most Vietnamese until the late early modern period of history (early 1800s) adopted the surname of the new ruling dynasty. This is why there are so many Vietnamese with the surname “Nguyen” as that was the last dynasty. The Trans were an earlier dynasty in the 1200s-1400s.
My congressional district was Katie Porter’s, so I voted for Dave Min instead of the commie sympathizer Scott Baugh. Derek Tran is running against Michelle Steel, whose husband is a powerful Republican committeeman (and former CA GOP chairman) and who also has verified PRC ties. The Orange County GOP has fallen from the time I was in the party. They abandoned Reaganism and moved towards having ties with communist countries while claiming they are anti-communist.
The “Banana Wars” were not an exercise of getting to know the local population. It was US political leaders sending soldiers and marines to a foreign country on behalf of American robber barons, and it was wrong, and the effects of the mistakes are still being felt today with regional instability.
The US Military is transitioning from SOCOM-focused COIN back to traditional methods of fighting big wars. SOCOM will have their place, as special forces always have, however the heavy emphasis on SOCOM has seriously degraded US capabilities versus near peer adversaries. That’s why the Pentagon is rapidly changing.
I think you’re misunderstanding what EABO and SIF is. EABO/SIF by my understanding is the complete opposite of CAP Marines. Both EABO/SIF emphasis mobility, which CAP Marines being sedentary is not mobile. EABO is setting up temporary bases to provide long range fires for sea denial and sea control, upwards to temporarily storing fuel/ammo/supplies for replenishing amphibious ships. While SIF is using a small force to act as a tripwire to deter the enemy. An example in the Philippines of SIF are the EDCA bases themselves. China doesn’t know how many American troops are there, and while there won’t be enough troops to prevent a Chinese attack, the PRC sure would know that if they touched even a hair on an American serviceperson temporarily in the Philippines, that would activate the tripwire and bring down the full weight of the US.
There are not enough American forces to spread out to every little island and town to provide civilian policing that is the responsibility of Filipinos to do. There are 228K PNP officers, 150K PA active duty, 10K PMC active duty, 1.2M AFP reserves, and countless Filipinos who don’t have jobs. Those are the agencies that should undertake maritime policing.
Sending a group of young people, with little oversight, with no clear objective, no clear chain of command, into another country ostensibly to “help” the locals seems like a bad idea. I do not agree with this “American and Filipino bros go on an adventure” thing. They might as well become vloggers. Just stay away from being a foreign savior marrying young women who smell money, and who already have a seloso husband with access to M-16s.
LCpl. You admit you’re not a Vietnam War expert, and nor are you from the Vietnamese community that went through it. I’m telling you that the US-centric recollection, while it has some validity, is incomplete as it doesn’t include the allied South Vietnamese nor the enemy NVA/VC perspective. I understand all 3 perspectives so you can imagine that when you keep on trying to beat this dead horse I need to push back. I find it especially interesting that most South Vietnamese vets and counter-insurgency militia are only extremely grateful for US assistance, and did not try to talk bad or look down on the efforts of their partners in the war, while US Vietnam vets have a tendency to look through rose colored glasses regarding their experiences and blame the ARVN despite the ARVN taking the bulk of casualties. CAP Marines in the Vietnam War were an utter failure at achieving the stated goals, therefore it was a failure full-stop. It might feel good to help the little brown folk, but without respecting and understanding local partners, well that’s why the Korean War went badly, and why the Vietnam War went badly. The only difference is the Korean War happened before the age of televised mass media, so the Koreans were able to survive despite objectively the Koreans were worse as they lost the entire country save for Busan early on, and territory fluctuations were wide across the Korean peninsula during the course of the Korean War. In the Vietnam War the front line was mostly stable for most of the war.
Thankfully nowadays the US Military, being the first integrated part of US society, has servicepeople of all races and faiths who can interface directly with the local partners. Just like the Marine in the video you linked, who is the son of Vietnamese refugees, eats similar food to Filipinos, and can more easily understand Filipino culture. I would not be surprised if USSOCOM sent Tagalog and Bisaya speaking soldiers/marines/corpsmen as well to Mindanao.
As I have already shared the many ways why CAP Marines in Vietnam failed, which no romantic stories told by aging soldiers/marines can paper over, why would the US repeat the same mistakes again? If something was successful one would expect the US Military to create a doctrine for it to propagate the doctrine to the next generations of soldiers/marines. Yet the US did not create a CAP Marines doctrine, because it failed in its goal. Soldiers and marines are not sent to war with the primary objective to make friends. The primary objective is to win and hold ground, then move forward until the enemy collapses. If they can make friends along the way then great, but that is a secondary, if not tertiary subgoal way down the priority list. With the US having since transitioned to an all volunteer military after 1973, there are simply not enough troops to spread around. We can be sure any enemy will create mass and focus their attacks on weak salients, so why would our militaries space out the forces where the line would be easily punched through?
Hard disagree with your premise that CAP Marines were successful due to being so young. Those marines were sent out there with no training, no clear objective, and by the way they did not run the village. The village mayor was still very much in charge. It’s also not the job of American soldiers/marines to teach other people how to be better citizens. Now that’s getting into White saviorism/American saviorism, which diminishes respect for the local partner. It is 100% the job of the Philippines to teach and nurture competence among their own people.
Though I agree with the premise of what you’re trying to get at LCpl. But what I’m saying is what you’re proposing is better done by the civilian coast guards and fisheries enforcers. In this regard, the USCG can probably help. I’ve explained the relevant law on why using the US military to provide policing functions is illegal in the US, and it’s illegal in another country whether or not we are “invited” or not. The only time using the US military for policing would be legal is in times of war where martial law is declared for that area, and in this case the President of the Philippines would need to declare martial law himself. The right tool needs to be used for the job. General Jim Mattis had already mused before that without the diplomatic corps and civilian efforts, if the military was sent in he’d need more bullets. Gen. Mattis was referring to the need for civilian government needing to take the lead, because to the hammer of the military everything looks like a nail. Militaries are not trained on how to provide civilian policing functions, they are trained to win wars.
Civilian maritime policing cannot be helped by military, much less US military. There are already partnerships between Philippine and US civilian police agencies for cross-training and sharing ideas. The relevant agencies here for maritime are the PCG and USCG.
Drones would not be used for EJKs, since these will be de-militarized drones used for civilian law enforcement. The reason I brought up de-militarizing GWOT drones is because the sensors the drones have are far more advanced than typical civilian gear, while being small aircraft with small displacement piston engines they can be easily services by small airfields that dot the Philippines. The drones being ex-military can also utilize austere airfields and won’t require building huge new airstrips. Avgas would be simple to procure. Running cost is also cheaper than manned stuff. And can’t beat “free” since the drones are being withdrawn from US military stocks anyway.
its not just me saying CAP Marines was hugely successful, Joey. here:
i’ll address the other points tonight or tomorrow. gotta watch election coverage now.
Let’s focus on something that can actually be done LCpl, rather than argue on fixations like CAP Marines, which I still maintain was a complete failure as it achieved zero of its goals. Like I said, I agree with your premise of your article and the needs you highlighted. I do not agree with using the military, much less the US military to accomplish that which is the responsibility of the civilian side.
Sometimes you really frustrate me, but hugsandkisses buddy haha
I have to defend my thesis, Joey. so I appreciate all your commentaries on this. i’m thankful.
Joey: “LCpl, rather than argue on fixations like CAP Marines, which I still maintain was a complete failure as it achieved zero of its goals. Like I said, I agree with your premise of your article and the needs you highlighted. I do not agree with using the military, much less the US military to accomplish that which is the responsibility of the civilian side.”
US Marines are the only ones I can envision doing this, Joey. Army won’t be able to. the only ones qualified are Green Berets, and they’re too busy doing other things.
“Civilian maritime policing cannot be helped by military, much less US military. There are already partnerships between Philippine and US civilian police agencies for cross-training and sharing ideas. The relevant agencies here for maritime are the PCG and USCG.”
PCG and USCG are already doing joint stuff. which is fine. but as of now theres no relationship that focuses on the population. USCG can’t do anything on the group.
“Gen. Mattis was referring to the need for civilian government needing to take the lead, because to the hammer of the military everything looks like a nail. “
That’s when the conflicts already going on, Joey. and I think Mattis would be correct. but also I think Gen. Mattis would be totally for this CAP Marines Philippines idea, because it’ll keep the CAP Marines tradition alive in the Marine Corps which he’s already a fan of. again there’s no conflict yet, and CAP Marines in the Philippines will not (WILL NOT) be doing the enforcement but only augmenting PNP-MG and PCG.
“Now that’s getting into White saviorism/American saviorism, which diminishes respect for the local partner. It is 100% the job of the Philippines to teach and nurture competence among their own people.”
this I actually kinda agree with you on, Joey. yes it is American saviourism, but at the same time theres Peace Corps and the myriad of American church groups, like Mormons, Jehovah’s Wits, Lutherans, 7th Day Adventists, even Quakers. this saviourism though is a two way street, why when CAP Marines return to Vietnam they are welcomed by their village. both parties involved are saving each other here, joey. you can’t say that for a PCG and USCG training exercise, or AFP to US military , that’s purely professional. only professional. one can even say its a one-way relationship. one dimensional. the Philippines deserves more.
The “Banana Wars” were not an exercise of getting to know the local population. It was US political leaders sending soldiers and marines to a foreign country on behalf of American robber barons, and it was wrong, and the effects of the mistakes are still being felt today with regional instability.
I totally agree with you here, Joey. and Smedley Butlet wrote and saw it the same way. but the lessons learnt on the ground, separate from who sent them or why they were sent original, are what made up the Small Wars manual, which meant like Lewis & Clark figured out for themselves too you have to get to know the local population. which then informed the CAP Marines operations.
Both EABO/SIF emphasis mobility, which CAP Marines being sedentary is not mobile. EABO is setting up temporary bases to provide long range fires for sea denial and sea control,
Joey, that’s why I’m saying on top of their maritime policing missions, that the bulk of them being there would be devoted to EABO/SIF feasibility studies, figuring out how all this really works. they can totally be mobile, that 14 man squad is designed to be broken off, so that platoon in those 3 towns i gave as examples, would be traversing back and forth, as well as to other platoons in other islands. and that mobility will help US Marines better serve the PNP-MG and PCG’s mission. essentially US Marines will be populating and traversing the seas, they’ll also be encourageing Filipinos in those towns to go out and contest Chinese fishermen. so not sedentary AT ALL , Joey.
An example in the Philippines of SIF are the EDCA bases themselves.
that’s actually more of an Expeditionary Advanced Base, Joey. SIF would be CAP Marines, but I concede US Marine Corps isn’t really talking about doing CAP Marines, I’m just writing about that here. its a LCPL_X original.
And i think it’d be because of what you’ve said here…
Sending a group of young people, with little oversight, with no clear objective, no clear chain of command, into another country ostensibly to “help” the locals seems like a bad idea.
The objective will be clear, to augment PNP-MG/PCG maritime policing , then to do EABO/SIF taskings , then to do CAP Marines stuff but in the Philippines (as done in Vietnam). not since Vietnam have they sent young Marines to hold villages, and I would say that’s why we screwed up GWOT. again Lewis & Clark before going on Jefferson’s expedition learnt this in the frontier, you have to get out and interact with the locals, the population. not stay holed up.
With Trump winning, expect minimal support for allies unless they start kneeling down and kissing his ass. I’m sorry buddy, but this idea is more dead in the water as of today. All the new advisors Trump has surrounded himself with are pro-Putin isolationists.
So Trump’s into anything cheap. and this CAP Marines idea is really cost effective. allows US Marines an in. and gets some useful stuff to Filipinos. then technical aid for PNP-MG/PCG. so one thing I know about Trump is he’s a penny pincher, so when he was planning the draw down in Afghanistan, Gen Milley said something like Sir, its much cheaper if we just leave everything behind (kinda like Vietnam). and Trump said Fuck that, those are ours. cuz he’s a penny pincher. I think you’re right about Ukraine though, he’s said that war’s gonna stop. but re China, I do think he’ll listen to US Marines more re EABO/SIF (cuz its cheap), compared to US Navy who want more subs or US Army who want more tanks, US Air Force who want more aerospace products in the billions. again penny pincher is this guy’s approach. but US Space Force is his baby, so we’ll probably see more funding there.
Nice to discuss. Now do you have the majority of the congress and senate support.? Any treaty needs US-PH congress nod.
This addresses the funding concern of the one in twitter. Bot or not.
that’s a good question, karl. I’m not sure how that would play out here whether just one or two committees that get a say or if it gets voted on on the floor of both house and senate over here, then over there but over there would be easier i think cuz the president would have bigger say on the matter. but am not sure how that whole thing works really.
or for instance Syria, where there’d be no treaties at all.
“This addresses the funding concern of the one in twitter. “ But they’re such tiny footprint , karl. that I don’t think theres any worry on funding. I’m assuming here that CAP Marines will just need permission to set up shop in those towns. then logistics wise, this is where EABO/SIF come in. either supplied direct by US Navy ships or by 11th/13th/15th MEUs coming from San Diego and 31st MEUs from Japan, Guam would probably be where the hq of this CAP operation will be. as to the civil affairs structures to be built like storm shelter, cistern for fresh water, etc. etc. seabees and such will be doing this so I’m picturing also coming out from US Navy ships. so all over the horizon stuff, no logistics really coming out of the Philippines. but CAP Marines will be participating in the town market buy food and drinks there. really integrate.
Probably eventually CAP Marines will be in hurricane proof structures built by seabees et al that would double or triple as storm shelters (like the above design), cultural centers during good weather or some sort of community center otherwise with wifi tv etc. etc.
Operation Inherent Resolve.
https://dod.defense.gov/OIR/
ISIS was all Trump’s doing, karl. he usually doesn’t get credit for this. that’s all Kurdish territory now.
Having control of two branches (Executive and Legislature) is useful and makes things more smooth. But despite that the US President has wide ranging powers in the area of foreign policy (in fact, the Executive in the US has sole constitutional power in foreign policy). Congressional treaty ratification has more to do with acknowledging and formalizing the relationship. Any massive transfer of monies would require Congress anyway, such as in the Economic Recovery Act of 1948 (Marshall Plan). I don’t expect assistance to the Philippines to be on the level of needing to rebuild a totally demolished Europe after WWII, so to answer your question it would require the US President to use unilateral drawdown authority mostly to transfer military articles the US already has. To use the example of the current Russian invasion of Ukraine, Biden used drawdown authority, and the Congressional acts to aid Ukraine in fact were used to manufacture new equipment to replace the defense articles that were transferred. In respect to the Philippines, there is already a treaty, the MDT, and any assistance would use the MDT as its basis. I’m not aware of any country where the US has more than two treaties with. Usually the two treaties are mutual defense treaties, and free trade agreements/treaties.
A Sara Duterte Presidency would threathen termination of the VFA
https://www.onenews.ph/articles/post-vfa-scenarios-finding-new-approaches-to-maintain-the-phl-us-security-alliance
Remember Duterte wanted termination of VFA
oh, I can use this for my next Inday Sara article, karl. thanks. do you think Sara Duterte is pro-China?
Figure her out.
https://www.inquirer.net/412000/sara-duterte-explains-silence-on-west-ph-sea-not-my-role-to-speak-about-it/
BTW I Meant Duterte the former Presdent.
In the two most recent press conferences she does say I’ll talk about foreign policy later not now. So I think she’s still figuring out where to go either pro China or pro USA or some where’s in the middle. but those press conferences she’s very disciplined in not talking about it. she’s very careful when it comes to that for sure, karl. actually she can just keep kicking the can down the road, not really time yet for foreign policy.
Not to be too pessimistic, but with Trump winning again, and with no “adults” to steer foreign policy as they will be replaced with Putin/Xi loving lunatics. The world is going to learn soon enough how much things will hurt without the US being a reliable partner.
In Europe the EU + UK is already scrambling. They had nearly 3 years into the Ukraine invasion to follow Biden’s advice and rearm defense industries, yet did nothing, assuming the US would continue to pay for everything. Germany and France are setting up a bilateral meeting in panick, forgetting to invite the British. Italy has the strongest EU conventional military yet it needs to be increased by at least 60% to meet self-defense needs if NATO falls. The rest of EU is worse. UK’s military is laughable.
In Asia the Japanese, South Koreans, and Australians suddenly realize they might really be alone if China moves forward with aggression against Taiwan and the Philippines, and themselves. Together Asian-Pacific states can win against China but everyone is so used to the US standing by, so they may do nothing and acquiesce.
A sobering day. America will be back, perhaps weaker or stronger I don’t know. It may take 4 years, or maybe 8 years. Trump won’t be around this long. Whether by age or by removal under the 25th Amendment to install Vance. What I do know is the inertia of American institutions will try to slow down the damage that Vance’s Putin aligned puppet masters may try to do. But it will take time.
Here in Europe, I am observing how the Easternmost EU and NATO partners will act, especially Poland, which has the most Ukrainian refugees and a long history towards Russia. But also by now new wealth to defend, like the Baltics. They and the Ukrainians are all far more dynamic than us in Western Europe, who have gotten too comfortable. My German grandmother never spoke of the times of the Berlin blockade that she experienced. But her generation and even my mother’s generation knew what it meant to face a real threat. It is indicative that my mother on a walk in Berlin some years ago showed me the old West Berlin town hall balcony from which Kennedy held his famous “ich bin ein Berliner” speech. Well, I guess there are sometimes old lessons lost that new generations must learn again, for better or for worse.
I can only imagine how JP is feeling right now. Probably in a dark place like I am in.
This is likely the definite end of the American Third Republic. Hopefully after the turmoil the Fourth Republic will rise. Whenever I travel in Europe, I’m often how taken for granted Pax Americana is, with the constant talking down on the US while holding out hands asking for American support. Talks of “strategic autonomy” where Europeans, especially the French, snub their noses at the US while Europe happily trades with two neo-imperialist states, Russia and the PRC. Strong words, yet not matched by taking care of their agreed contribution to alliance defense.
As I alluded to before, Americans are tired. We upheld global security and the world avoided global war for nearly 80 years with little thanks. Everyone got to trade and make money under the watchful eye of the US Armed Forces. For decades there was a supermajority bipartisan consensus that despite the criticism from allies, maintaining peace with American dollars and blood was worth it. Now half of the country completely rejects that notion while liberals are starting to question it. I find it odd that European and Asian allies are not very concerned about their own security, even as successive US Presidents begged allies to contribute the agreed upon 2% GDP to their own security. Western EU economies soared while Middle America cratered economically. As despicable as I find MAGA, their grievances are based on a kernel of truth. And the Europeans know it which is why they are scrambling now.
So the same goes for Asia-Pacific. Australia has let its once decent military crumble. The South Koreans and Japanese enthusiastically support rearming, but it may be too late. The Philippines, well, all I can say is the Philippines is going to probably be in for a lot of hurt due to Filipino leaders not taking domestic economy and military seriously.
At this point after the dust settles I expect Putin and Xi to open up new fronts. Without US military to back up Taiwan, their resistance may fall. The PRC might even eye making the Philippines a puppet state, with a modern day Executive Commission in order to secure WPS oil reserves. Who will be this generation’s MacArthur, Nimitz, Halsey, Kincaid, Sprague to wrestle back the Philippines from the occupiers?
Will the world stand up together to push back against the neo-imperialists? Or is it easier to just bow down to a new, not-so-benevolent hegemon? Americans were willing to pay with blood throughout the decades to fight for our ideals. I wonder if the rest of the world is ready to fight for their ideals as well and pay the required price in the blood of their countrymen. National leaders can bluster and boast all they want, about how their country can stand alone. I’ll believe them when they put actions to their words.
I have confidence the US will get through this. We are a rebellious people. But this assault on our democracy by Putin and nihilistic oligarchs could not come at a worse time. The last time there was a fascist attempted coup, we had FDR firmly in power so were prepared on our entry into WWII. This time the one who will be in power has fascist inclinations himself.
https://joeam.com/2022/05/12/filipinos-and-unity/ was the article I wrote when I had the post-Pink campaign blues. One of the implied messages is that there is NO true unity in advanced societies, rather an endless back and forth.
Hegel and dialectics come to mind even as I didn’t mention it explicitly. I did mention the French dialectic of Royalism, Republic and Bonapartism that is obvious in the novels of Dumas, Hugo, and Balzac. Or the German process of finding democracy with false starts of 1848 and 1919.
The American dialectics between internationalism and isolationism is another matter I didn’t tackle as I have little knowledge of it, though the US did decide to leave Europe after WW1. Or the dialectics of Civil War, Civil Rights Movement, 1990s political correctness until now.
I did mention how Spain went through convulsive conflicts between the “Two Spains” (Goya) of reactionary and liberal tendencies, with the Spanish Civil War as the last major convulsion and Franco as the last “Carlista”, just as some say the last French Royalist was Petain.
If there are two Spains and there is the picture of the Ugly German and the Beautiful German, why can’t there be Two Americas and the Ugly and Beautiful American? For the Philippines, we know who that Pang. is the abbreviation for pangit if used in Pang. Rodrigo Duterte..
Rodrigo, not Sara, LCPL_X don’t get mad please. In the dialectic of the world, we are in a period like the 1930s in many ways, but coming just after the Spanish flu hit post-WW1.
Another American oscillation was between the imperialism of McKinley and Teddy Roosevelt vs Mark Twain et al, and the later Woodrow Wilson policies of giving the Philippines as much autonomy as possible like Senate in 1916..
Though some say the USA supporting Quezon was to prevent more virulent nationalists like the pro-Japan Ricarte (Ricartistas in the 1910s were similar to Dutertistas as many talked tough) from getting too strong but I take Prof. Ileto with more than a grain of salt.
Or the sudden shift to quickly give independence, also related to fear of having too many Filipinos in places like California (Stockton riots, laws against Filipinos or Mexicans marrying white women etc) and Great Depression issues – at least that is one version I know..
I can only imagine how JP is feeling right now. Probably in a dark place like I am in.
I would just say remember 2016 and 2017, it wasn’t really that bad. everyone was crying, but once everyone settled on a Trump presidency it was fairly quiet. though I do feel for Ireneo, cuz Trump is really against NATO again penny pincher thinks they should be paying more not vice versa. But I don’t think Putin will push (he needs to appreciate this Trump gift to him, stopping Putin’s folly any further), Poles are pretty militant now. which means Putin will probably just take a break from being Ivan the Great and Ivan the Terrible. just enjoy ABBA, man. chill. lol.
Rodrigo, not Sara, LCPL_X don’t get mad please.
Did you know Joe Rogan’s really a big fan of Filipino pool players, Ireneo?
As I alluded to before, Americans are tired. We upheld global security and the world avoided global war for nearly 80 years with little thanks.
Totally agree, Joey. this was the main by product of GWOT.
But I’m watching all these analyses on Latino men voting for Trump, but one think i didn’t coming was how this trans issue (which Elon Musk was really vocal about, eg. puberty blockers, hormone therapy to gender affirming surgeries) this was the issue that really made a difference. i thought it was the opening of the southern border. but I do feel like I’m being forced fed LGBTQplus crap every time I’m watching a tv series or movie. I personally don’t care myself, but if I’m gagging in the mouth others at surprise male on male sex scenes I can see being militant about this if I were already against it. cuz it is kinda too much, like some dude with a bulge swimming with women thus winning, I thought it humorous, but if I were Catholic especially conservative lots of Filipinos in NV i heard batted for Trump i too would probably turn on this issue alone. i’d not considered this at all. illegal immigration was my issue. just saw trans/lgbtqplus as a nuissance when I watched shows etc. Dems didn’t really bother to address the nitty gritty of this issue, especially how in EU they’re slamming on the brakes on gender affirming medications and surgeries.
demographics wise, this was Whites last stand of sorts, just so happened Latinos too felt the same way. which kinda makes sense cuz open border they’d have to compete with those illegal immigrants than any other ethnic group. especially in this economy. so inflation and immigration, but LGBTQplus was what brought it home, last straw and camel’s back and all.
The PRC might even eye making the Philippines a puppet state, with a modern day Executive Commission in order to secure WPS oil reserves. Who will be this generation’s MacArthur, Nimitz, Halsey, Kincaid, Sprague to wrestle back the Philippines from the occupiers?
easy question. CAP Marines, joey! i’m just fuckin’ with you. lol.
2nd Gen and up Latinos start to feel that they are White, especially if they have mestizo or majority European ancestry. This has been explained by prominent Latino experts for the last couple of years. It is not the LGBT for Latinos. Latin culture has a similar permissive structure for LGBT that Filipino culture has. Go to any Latino fiesta or parade and its cross dressers, gays and trans galore. Just like Filipino parades and fiestas.
There was the time when French Fries became Freedom Fries because of France being skeptical of GWOT. Germany was more complex as it suddenly had 1/5 of its population raised in a system that taught them “America bad” even as a typical East German woman (preferably hot, blonde and Saxon) born before 1989 might be called Cindy, Candy or Mandy. Though Mandy might be from the working class district of East Berlin and a bit shorter, but I digress..
Still, Schröder kind of played to some groups wanting less dependency on the USA and there was a time one magazine kept writing op-eds shading France (seen by some as too dominant within the EU and maybe even Eurovision Song Contest) so I stopped reading it.
Anyhow, like with Brexit, one should sometimes just give people what they always asked for.
Not that I am personally happy about this, but I am tired of people here in Europe calling “Atlanticists” (pro-Americans) dumbasses. Most of us here are still way too spoiled.
The Bavarian PM prohibited gender pronouns in all state offices some months ago, BTW..
Well Schröder has curious Kremlin and PRC ties himself. What a traitor to the German people. He’s one of the main causes of the predicament Germany finds herself in right now, and why some people still hold him up as a shiny example of a statesman is beyond me.
Many Europeans mocked Madeleine Albright’s observation that the US is the “indispensable nation” as an example of American chauvinism. It seems that many European leaders also have a sense of inferiority complex. Taking gladly with one hand while pointing an accusatory finger with the other. Well Europe is in for a bad trip with the possible withdrawal of the American umbrella. These bad feelings most Americans across parties have regarding helping foreigners is nothing new. It’s been building up for years of American good intentioned generosity, whether that was right or wrong, was denigrated and taken for granted. I guess Europeans forgot who rebuilt Europe and maintained the peace. If it was up to the British and French, they would’ve forced reparations and austerity, just like the first time around after WWI.
You’re right, most Europeans are too spoiled and have gotten rich off of American sacrifice. It’s unconscionable that the UK’s military has been so downsized that they can’t afford anything, while Germany’s military equipment is in disrepair and in a state of low readiness. The French and Italians are doing better, but they focus on quality over quantity, and their quantity is too small.
I think the pronoun war is useless. Trans people make up a minuscule fraction of any population. Most trans people are understanding if someone gets their pronouns wrong. Or they just let it go, let it be. They understand a binary society that descended from Judaeo-Christian ideology isn’t quite ready yet. Hell I can’t figure out pronouns sometimes, but I try. The militant scolds are usually Far Leftists. Go figure. Root of half of the problems along with the other half being Nationalists.
It wasn’t really the trans issue for Latinos. Many prominent Latinos have explained this yesterday and today. The main issue that caused some Latino groups, mostly second generation and up Mexican-Americans, Venezuelans, even Puerto Ricans, to move towards Trump enough to give him an Electoral College win is the same problem that plagues the Filipino. It’s the crab mentality of pulling up the ladder once “I got mine” and kicking even people from the country they came from off the ladder. Latino Trump supporters main issue was they want immigration, as long as it’s the “right” immigrant, even if their own family might have illegals in it. They just don’t think the racists will come after them.
Sure there are some obnoxious trans influencers who were given too much air and became MAGA posters to fear monger. Sure there are some people who use vanity pronouns and angrily demand others get it correct instead of asking kindly that became MAGA examples to hate. But most trans and people who use non-binary pronouns are good people, don’t force other people to conform to their life, and just want to be left alone. The most prominent people out there effectively pushing back obnoxious trans and vanity pronoun users are people in the LGBT community themselves. Don’t condemn an entire category of people for the wrongdoings of a few. The Philippines is way more open with LGBT stuff. In the Philippines I can literally get publicly groped by a trans, and people will laugh as if it’s funny (right before I punch the molester out). That stuff just does not happen in the US. The American LGBT community is much, much more conservative than the Filipino LGBT community. Just like how Filipinos claim Americans are some kind of sex-crazed maniacs, when the fact rests that out of stable relationship/wedlock and teen pregnancies are much less in the US compared to the Philippines.
But most trans and people who use non-binary pronouns are good people, don’t force other people to conform to their life, and just want to be left alone.
I agree with this , Joey, i’m just seeing the stuff coming out of Hollywood is kinda invasive. like whoah, i didn’t wanna see this.
But some commenter on MSNBC the black bald chic i forget her name said there was a lot of ads on trans. and she was just doing cause and effect. but yeah inflation and immigration too, and what you said Hispanics thinking they are white. factors in. but trans issue Dems never bothered addressing. not really. and this was MAGA’s issue on top of everything else. and it was ignored.
If someone doesn’t like what they’re watching they are free not to watch it.
Inflation in the US is at historic lows, and the US inflation is among the lowest in the world with an economy that is the one that rebounded from Covid the highest.
When issues are literally made up out of thin air, not sure how to fight that. There is no trans issue. Trans people make up a fraction of 1% of Americans if one takes out the performative fake trans people who will never transition since they’re not trans.
All of MAGAs issues were invented and fake. It’s all vibes and feelings despite reality being right in front of them. Not a way to behave it to run a country.
even Biden addressed it, but not in the campaign with Harris:
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/health/transgender-surgery-biden.html
beating a dead horse again. Like I said, trans people constitute a tiny fraction of people. They are already persecuted and have few allies. We straight people are the huge majority and it’s ridiculous to feel oppressed by a handful of powerless people. That’s victim narrative and essentially the straight people are oppressing themselves. Let the trans live and let them be alone. I will not accept or believe anything that originated from the Kremlin’s propaganda mouthpiece itself.
That’s not the issue, Joey. not how many it affects, but that its an ethics issue similar to abortion, eg. not only women’s health, but whether or not its right to kill a fetus. same here, is it right to encourage kids towards trans surgery. and I think many Catholics like in abortion. came out for this. hence Latino men. I think that black chic from MSNBC is right. though i’d never considered it until she said it.
Oh dear lord LCpl. I’m telling you it’s an *invented* culture war issue that affects a minuscule part of the population. I do not want the government telling me or my family what the heck I’m supposed to do as long as it’s not hurting anyone fellow human being. I expect others to behave the same way. What’s worse, letting people after careful consultation with multiple childhood psychologists to transition with their parents’ permission, or just let the kid kill themselves? Unless you have friends in the LGBT community, no one knows. And that’s coming from me, a former hardcore gay hater who started talking to LGBT and realizing they are actual human beings.
Could it be that the culture war issue is just the tip of the iceberg? Three things:
1) some of those seen as wokes might just be spoiled, annoying Gen Z parading woke. Or lifestyle folks parading woke as a fashion statement and Woke Hollywood as most visible.
2) those who are left behind by digitalization, etc, might resent the lifestyle folks. They might have old school ways of life that are uncool today, like old working class rituals, video below.
3) There might be a Zeitgeist that sees the learned as out of touch. See video below. Is this justified or are books like Taleb’s Skin in The Game just provocation? Don’t know.
But even stoked resentment needs a source. Like a barbecue fire needs charcoal to burn.
Just asking questions based on my intuition as I know too little about the present USA.
The culture wars were invented by the 1990s Republican Party under Newt Gingrich, when they were out of power following the collapse of Reaganism. Inherently, culture wars are grievance politics even if the grievance is vacuous and undefined. It’s also a tactic that conservatives in the US adopted since making people angry is effective, and because US conservatives have no values, no plans, no agenda for the governed majority except tax cuts for the rich. I was steeped deep in this culture in the 1990s to middle 2000s and was a youth foot soldier for the movement. The movement also started being hatched in the California Republic Party, which had been dealt a crushing blow in the reaction to the extremely racist 1994 California Proposition 187, which was the point Mexican Americans turned California solidly “Blue.” I remember doing door-to-door canvassing in support of that direct democracy initiative, and being cursed at by pretty much every Mexican American I met. Sometimes it’s shocking to remember how far right I was back in my youth, but that was the norm in Orange County, the bastion of the modern Republican Party. Coincidentally, there is a critical Congressional battle here as well as scandalous corruption exposed by the Republicans (literally stealing food from senior citizens), so I’ll see how the County has shifted.
I see the word “woke” similarly to how Joe sees it, except I’m more up to date on African American subcultures and was there when the word was coined (late 1980s). “Woke” to an African American means “not asleep,” “aware,” “informed.” African Americans did not use their lingo outside of their communities (code switching). The term “woke” was later adopted by the White gay community, as are many African American urban slang terms. It wasn’t until the early 2000s when upper middle class and wealthy White youth discovered the term and started using it excessively as a vanity word in order to virtue signal, without understanding the meaning. As always, rich White youth tend to be obnoxious in their virtue signalling to gain points in their social circles, yet when the word or term is under attack, they are White so of course they can just withdraw back to their White majority and allow non-White people to bear the blame and be attacked. Same goes for other culture war flashpoint words like “CRT” or “DEI.” African American people can define it, but no one else can even if the others are using it for attack, and African Americans were not the one pushing the terms on everyone else.
The trans and pronoun flashpoint is the same thing within the culture war. For decades trans people have kept to themselves. When I started making LGBT friends after I left the Republican Party, yes the transpeople I met used pronouns, but the important thing is they used it among themselves and did not impose it on others. For most Americans, until the trans issue became a part of the culture war transpeople were considered an oddity who were met with polite “hello” then one would move on with their lives. Around the early 2010s, the pronoun discourse became mainstreamed and the Republicans used it as another culture war attack against transpeople. Of course, most people are raised in a binary gender world inherited from Western values, so even I had a hard time adjusting. But would it hurt anyone to just call people by what they would like to be called just like we use nicknames for people if they prefer that? Once again, it was young affluent White “activists” who are really just performative virtue signalers who caused the issue to blow up with their OA nonsense and trying to force other people rather than let’s say ask nicely so people can prepare to adjust.
I would say that currently there is a Regressive Alliance of conservatives across the world, much of it fueled by Kremlin propaganda which identifies pain points and throws fuel on the fire. From Turkey, to Hungary, Poland (before the change in government), UK, Europeans adopted American culture war issues and are now arguing about it without even understanding the meaning or context, as most Americans don’t even understand it in the first place. There are Japanese and South Korean protestors for “Palestine,” yet they have barely an understanding of the Israel-Palestine issue. Of course, the Philippines which has adopted many American cultural elements readily ate up the culture wars also. I see and hear Filipinos throw around these words and wonder “do they even know what it means?” It doesn’t help that are instances of obnoxious, rich Filipinos like that lesbian (?) restaurant customer berating the waiter captured on social media video for hours about “proper pronouns.” Not shocking that incident happened in Cebu City, which is probably the most Americanized city in the Philippines today where young Cebu City residents follow American online culture closely.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Culture_war#1920s%E2%80%931991:_Origins
Well manufacturing in the US has declined since the advent of economic globalization in the early 1990s, accelerating in the early 2000s. There are just not that many factory workers (“the working man”) left in the US, until recently when Biden has started building many new factories. I’d say for some at least a generation has passed since a family member has had factory work, but there are still fathers and uncles around who tell stories about how factory work was tough but the salary was decent and there were good retirement benefits. So people grew resentful that they now have to live in a dog-eat-dog world rather than work in a factory for decades. Some older factory workers worked from the time they left high school aged 18 until they retired, for the same employer. This provides stability and ability to build a family, and keep family close by. Instead now Americans often need to move across the US to work, fracturing the family and friends network that was previously there. Then people’s memories become hazy fast and they start to have an exaggerated rosy memory of “the good past.” Never mind that all those old factories were build under Democratic Presidents and globalization happened mostly under Republican Presidents. People blame who is in power, even if the problem had started long ago.
Hillary Clinton had a great plan to re-train factory and mine workers back in 2016. I read it. It was well thought out, considerate of local needs for various American states, yet Americans elected Trump 1.0 because they wanted it “now.” I’ve observed that in the states where Biden built new factories (the states that lost manufacturing back in the day), that one can drive past multiple factories under construction, life is much better, communities are flush with money again, yet West Virginia for example still voted for Trump 2.0 by 70%. People’s memories can be long, as is the blame they misplace accusing the wrong person or party. No one really lives that old school manufacturing worker ritual anymore, and hasn’t for probably 3 decades. It’s really a thing that was more prominent back in the 1950s and prior. Most of the American “diners” and “greasy spoons” (casual sit down restaurants similar to a karenderya) are now closed over the decades, with a few chains leftover for nostalgia’s sake though most people don’t remember anymore the working class origins as those establishments have gone upscale.
If the Democrats are out of touch, it’s probably because their big tent got too big and now includes unhelpful people who can’t sway more votes anyway. Like the Far Leftist entryists and communist adjacents. I fully maintain they need to be tossed out of the Democratic Party, just as much as I maintain they need to be tossed out of a Philippine opposition coalition. Even if they actually vote (doubtful), they are few in number yet turn off a larger number of potential supporters with their OA antics. But yes, the Democratic Party is often painted as out of touch, even though Joe Biden, Kamala Harris and many Democratic leaders are working class/middle class origin, while the so-called working class vote for billionaires and the rich who cosplay as the common man. It’s just unbelievable to be honest.
Another source of stoking resentment is the fact that while apolitical religious organizations cannot be taxed under the US Constitution as long as they no not engage in politics, in practice many non-denominational “Christian” churches are the biggest problems in politics yet are not taxed out of fear of backlash. These megachurches provide community for Americans who became uprooted from family and friends due to needing to move for work, and they target the vulnerable. These churches entire operation depends on making their followers angry and hate others in order for the followers to give money, so the pastors can buy private jets, private helicopters, yachts and multiple mansions. In fact the most famous megachurch in the early movement was “Crystal Cathedral” where I live. The former senior pastor was literally an ex-con man, ex-felon, who built one of the biggest televangelism operations in the world. The church complex is beautiful and magnificent. Eventually the grift ran out as the children took over as pastors and their family became more openly greedy. When the church was on the verge of bankruptcy, there was a scandal when elderly followers cooked homemade meals and attempted to deliver it to the senior pastor’s sick wife. He initially sent an empty limousine to pick up the food, then later told people not to cook at all and just give money. Well that was the end of that church, and the Catholic diocese was able to buy the property, saving money it would’ve spent on building the diocesan cathedral. There are many, more up to date grifty megachurches though that replace that one.
There isn’t really an identifiable source of resentment to be honest. Mostly it’s all vibes and “gut feelings,” though if some things can be distilled, it relates to White fear of losing power, and men’s fear of losing power in a world where they are less educated and have less avenues to building a comfortable life like factory work used to offer. Latino Americans and Asian Americans who try to join because they want to be identified as “White” are accepted as useful allies, but I don’t doubt for a moment those people will get oppressed when they are no longer useful.
Lyndon Baines Johnson figured out the root of all societal ills, way back in the 1960s:
“If you can convince the lowest white man he’s better than the best colored man, he won’t notice you’re picking his pocket. Hell, give him somebody to look down on, and he’ll empty his pockets for you.”
And the updated colloquial version of the same:
“When you’re accustomed to privilege, equality feels like oppression.”
Terrific read, Joey. White insecurity in a colored world. Obama insulted white America by being so smart and successful as they struggle to afford a reputable car and gas for it. Harris was additionally offensive for being a woman.
Thanks Joe. Sometimes with a bit of clean up my comments probably are article length themselves, haha.
The irony of the “White backlash,” which you undoubtedly witnessed the seeds of way back in the day under Nixon, is that it was all manufactured by a new generation of wealthy Americans who did not believe in the patriotic duty to give back their Rockefeller Republican forebears held. They instead used race and class warfare to divide the diverse growing middle class back to its base instincts as if those middle class individuals were still scrapping around being the struggling poor in a world of limited resources. I suppose the post-WWII year economy was so good that it birthed multiple generations of greedy, selfish people. The middle class and poor have common interest, yet are easily divided when they feel that there’s not enough resources to go around. Democrats need to go back to “abundance politics,” like FDR did.
The sad fact I’ve come to realize after yesterday is that the US is not ready for a woman President, much less a non-White woman. It might take another generation of diversifying demographics… though with at least 1/3 of GenZ Americans becoming fascist-pilled while another 1/3 are communist-wannabes, I fear for the future. Let’s hope that when Millennials enter their 50s and take on national leadership they can stop this. The oldest members of the Millennial cohort are already in their early 40s.
Education is wasted when comprehension is weak, parents are weak, and emotional discipline is weak.
It’s quite interesting to observe American GenZ end up just like their GenX parents — bored, decadent, nihilistic, selfish, finding someone else to blame for their own mistakes. I once thought like many Millennials with all the misfortune our cohort faced that GenZ would save the country. Well, it appears we have to save the country ourselves.
Symone Sanders issue was it was never addressed, Joey. that’s what I’m trying to say here. Biden at least addressed it. the politics of this is not my issue. hell I agree with you. its the ads, and according to Symone Sanders, they had more trans ads in the swing states. more so than immigration or inflation. so her conclusion is that it played a big part. thus Dems need to revisit this issue in particular.
From a prominent trans voice on Twitter. Most trans people are reasonable, normal people despite their status as a trans person. The problem is not trans. It’s transphobia even if most MAGA have never met a trans person. I myself had to seek out trans friends back when I was in the gaming community 2 decades ago. They are such a small number most people will never meet them. And as I’ve said, the obnoxious ones are bored rich GenZ kids cosplaying as trans, just like they cosplay as commies.
https://x.com/briannawu/status/1854034118624911727
Maybe the Dems could have done what you’re doing, like guys theres nothing to see here. something at least. not ignore it. But that’s Symone Sander’s point. it wasn’t addressed. like it was a none issue. yet MAGA took out more ads on this issue. if Symone Sanders is correct, i’ve not seen these ads.
Still missing the point that every Republican message was manufactured outrage. It was all fake. And people fell for it like idiots.
Just asking questions based on my intuition as I know too little about the present USA.
You’re right actually, Ireneo. Dave Chapelle always gets in trouble for this. but Chappelle’s whole case is how the hell did trans rights get in the front of the line, they should be behind everyone else. and I think Symone Sanders bringing this up is related. Hispanic and black men are also thinking the same as Chapelle. Caitlyn Jenner, etc. I shared this awhile back Chris Beck, Navy SEAL, from male to female to male again, talking about the politics of all this trans stuff. Theres some thing here that the Dems are ignoring. saying its all made up, MAGA are idiots. but people are reacting to it. for me, I don’t really know any one trans, its Hollywood tv and movies which I really don’t mind, i just fast forward cuz i don’t wanna see this stuff. but I can see it triggering people. especially black and Hispanic men.
and here’s Dave Chappelle
While we’re unpacking what went wrong. Also useful to analyze the Filipino/ Filipino-American vote. I’ve read a bunch of article on how NV was gonna be decided by Filipinos, but post-election now I’m not really seeing any numbers on this still. but Heyderian is always talking about Filipino in the Philippines i guess who are pro-Trump but also pro-VP Leni. and how that confounded him. if that trend is true, seems to me they are just tailor fitting personalities to specific countries, eg. Trump is right for USA cuz strength; VP Leni for Philippines cuz stability. i dunno. curious now if Jaya is pro-VP Leni.
It is very different from 2016.
1) we had Merkel over here until 2021. She was enough of a leader with international respect to be a counterweight to Trump.
2) the double whammy of the pandemic and Russian gas supply turned off hit the economy here, plus the coalition after Merkel with Greens in it wasn’t smart enough to at least delay the shutdown of the last nuclear power plants here.
3) the war about as far away from us as LA is from New Mexico, meaning freaking near.
Though yes, the Poles might save the day just like their Winged Husar cavalry regiment once played a pivotal role in driving out the Ottomans from the gates of Vienna. They are not only rich now, they recently bought South Korean tanks. And Sokor is helping build an airport there. The Asian Century is not just about China being all over the place. It already had Japan in Düsseldorf and Vietnamese in Czech Republic and Germany, and now Sokor is also over here.
Bavaria (and BMW) might benefit from new Czech nuclear plants being built just across the border. It is pretty bad for Volkswagen, who are planning to close plants. Though the defense industry might benefit from stuff like the new KF-51 tank being built faster, who knows?
It just makes more sense for Putin to be quiet now and just face east towards pacific and north towards arctic. build that alliance with China and N. Korea. hell move Moscow to Vladivostok. USA though I think will pull out of Europe now. so everyones gonna have to be as badass as Poles right now. even the Spaniards.
NATO will remain for now as it is a treaty organization, and even the USA leaving is unlikely, but the USA can thin out its troop presence, especially in Poland. They didn’t want German NATO troops there, so they are guarding the Baltics – stuff has been serious since a long time already. As long as the USA is in NATO, Article 5 of the NATO treaty applies that an attack on one is an attack on all. There seem to be no reports of Russian drones or fighters overshooting the Polish airspace, for instance. “Accidental” overshoots of Austrian airspace by Yugo Mig-25s allegedly happened at times during the secession of Slovenia from Yugoslavia. Austria is neutral. Long before the war in Ukraine, NATO fighters regularly scrambled Russian fighters “accidentally” crossing into Baltic or North Sea NATO airspace. I think it started around 2015.
Bavarian Prime Minister Markus Söder still said today “we’re on our own now,” and in a jibe at Berlin also said Germany shouldn’t wait for next September to vote as the present coalition at Federal level is a lame duck we can’t afford. Somehow, he is right as Scholz is one of the weakest Chancellors Germany ever had. The German Free Democrats (Liberals) who are part of his coalition have criticized his government so fiercely that they might switch sides soon. Of course, AfD has gained ground in former East Germany. Well, stuff happens when it happens..
After Merkel’s retirement, Scholz has turned out to be a weak disgrace. Never would I imagine a German like him to waffle so much on positions.
The problem though is while the Eastern Europeans are more cognizant of the Russian threat, only Poland has any meaningful capacity and foresight to prepare. The Nordic + Baltic states are also cognizant and have decent defense. UK, Germany, France are still sticking their heads in the sand. Not sure what the Italians are doing. Maybe attending bunga bunga parties.
Could be part of the German civil defense establishment at least has woken up already years ago. The German standard list of emergency supplies was updated before Covid. The emergency warning system, now mobile based unlike the siren system I still experienced drills for in the 1980s (planner agendas for sale in German stationary stores then had the meaning of all siren patterns including ABC-alarm, atomic, biological, chem weapons alarm) was tested widely a number of times before, during and after the pandemic. Reports about the German military being short of parts are good critical journalism. The question is whether the political will is there to fix it. It is just like our railways are falling apart due to lack of maintenance. There are too few Filipino migrants here for the pabaya attitude to have infected Germans..
There was an upgrade of German cybersecurity laws in the early 2010s after China hacked major German ministries. Every German firm now must report breaches to the BSI or Federal Information Security agency, and I believe IT related to critical infrastructure has more duties. Good, as that is a dangerous front. I recall from my informatics studies how Leftist students here made a big deal about how it was formed out of the Central Office for Ciphering (cryptology) of the BND (German Federal Intelligence) in the late 1980s. The 2010s were BTW also when the German military created a cybercommand. Maybe a bit of deep state isn’t bad. Doing their job quietly even as politicians are clueless. It might have been much worse already.
I don’t get why they aren’t on high alert in Berlin. Is Scholz under the influence of Schröder?
Right, the inertia of the mass of state might be what gets our Western institutions through this period of democratic backsliding and rise of dangerous populist demagogues. I just don’t understand why people don’t even have a bit of curiosity as to how government works.
The West as a whole are too comfortable in their modern lives and many have not experienced any real hardship before the Covid pandemic. Comfort and boredom breeds delusions stoke by boredom, which then leads to either malcontent or nihilism. Not sure about over there in Europe recently, but in America nearly the entire White GenX cohort are angry MAGA despite comfortable, even wealthy lives bought by the hard work of their WWII veteran Silent Generation parents. Most of the Jan 6 insurrectionists flew out and stayed in comfortable DC area hotels, some even flew out in private jets and stayed at luxury hotels. It’s like the whole is a giant cosplay for them. The Far Leftists are pretty much the same rich kids that didn’t grow up. While here, us Millennials faced recession after recession at every critical point in life caused by Baby Boomer and GenX greed. I don’t have hope in GenZ. Quite a few GenZ in the US actually have become Nazi-pilled, while another large portion decided they want to be communists. Mind you, these GenZ kids are too afraid to go outside their parents’ McMansions, much less become independent like drive a car. Two coddled generations screwing up everything. I don’t know, maybe Millennials will have the last laugh when Baby Boomer wealth is transferred to them in their inheritances.
George Washington warned against copying the decadence of the old European nobility:
“Arbitrary power is most easily established on the ruins of liberty abused to licentiousness.”
The SPD seems to still have a lot of Schröder acolytes from my afar observation. Scholz himself is a Schröder acolyte as I believe I recall that Schröder was critical in raising Scholz through the SPD ranks. Scholz had publicly “asked” Schröder to divest from his Russian interests after the renewed Ukraine invasion, but I don’t think he has done that yet. He still praises Russia and Putin constantly.
The saddest part about the Bundeswehr is that it has a lot of equipment, mostly modern too. yet due to lack of maintenance most of it has fallen into disrepair and will need major refurbishment. Rheinmetall among other Germany companies have said repeatedly that they are ready for the task of refurbishment, yet here we are almost 3 years into the Ukraine invasion and Scholz hasn’t done much on that regard.
Putin’s going nowhere. He thinks he is winning right now by getting America good, but soon he will realize he has become the junior partner to China’s Xi. Russia’s GDP is less than Italy’s, with a vastly larger country to manage. They are good at psyops, like what they did in this election, but in China decides they want to solve their oil problems by taking Siberia and the Urals instead of dealing with the South China Sea claims, there’s nothing Putin can do. Even if all the Russian Far East troops were still there, and they’re not because they are badly trained and all sent to Ukraine to be used in meat assaults, China would roll through sparsely manned and badly trained troops.
Well, let’s hope the Asian Century is led by the South Koreans and Japanese, and that they remember all the help America gave them to make their countries great and rich.
European military-industrial know-how and capacity has greatly withered. Years of malpractice is catching up…
No, this time will be worse. Trump has actually decided he wants to act like a king, while the Supreme Court has explicitly said Presidents can more or less be a king (absolute immunity). Out of 44 main advisors in his first term (the “adults in the room”), 40 had come out to oppose him during this election. His new advisors are billionaire plants to enact the billionaire agenda, or pro-Russian plants sponsored by Musk and Thiel. Vance himself is a plant that owes everything to Thiel and thus will submit. Trump is vulgar, potentially violent, but he’s also inherently lazy. As long as he gets to play king, he will let his new “advisors” do what they want and stamp it with the Presidential seal of authority.
Trump is a penny pincher because he thinks others owe HIM directly. He doesn’t understand that the NATO 2% member dues are a commitment of each member to pay at least 2% GDP to their *own* defense.
Wrong take on Putin. I follow Russian channels and they are all celebrating. Poles wouldn’t be militantly defending themselves and raising the alarm if Putin wasn’t going to push further. Putin wants to remake the Russian Empire. He’s said so multiple times himself, as has Dugin, the crazy man who is “Putin’s whisperer.” Dugin is best buddies with Steve Bannon, Trump’s top advisor.
Wrong take on Putin. I follow Russian channels and they are all celebrating.
Joey, are you saying Putin will push into Germany? Cuz Trump will just double triple Americans in EU if that happens. Putin’s gotta have to sit this out. enjoy this Trump presidency. lick his wounds.
Trump said last time that he’s going to pull out American troops from Germany. He keeps saying it years later. But no matter. The Europeans are going to need to figure it out for themselves for a while, what it feels like without American protection. I’m guessing they will start crap talking US contributions a lot less. I will not enjoy this Trump presidency. He needlessly killed 1.2 million Americans the last time around with Covid pandemic mismanagement and incompetence. One of those dead was my mother and quite a few friends.
Pull out troops now. yes I agree. but if Putin goes in. Trump will stay or go back. Trump’s no Obama, he’ll not turn his back, Joey. challenge will not be left unanswered as was the pattern of Obama’s presidency. in Crimea, in ISIS, in WPS, etc. if challenged directly by Putin, he’ll go back to EU in force.
lol if you believe that to be so
I think Putin knows this to be true also, so he’ll not make any moves while Trump is in office, maybe after. like I said Putin should take the time off to lick his wounds rebuild his military find the corruption that prevented him from accomplishing his goals in Ukraine. face eastward to the Pacific. NATO will be stronger with less US input.
You believe what Putin says?
Trump will be President-in-name-only. The real power will be through Vance as Musk and Thiel’s puppet. Musk and Thiel are aligned with Putin and got exposed conducting secret phone calls with Putin. Putin is aligned with China, North Korea, Iran. If you think that the US will face towards the Pacific, then you’re in for a rude awakening as that does not align with Putin and Xi’s wishes and no strong American President to punch back. This is bad for the Philippines in more ways than one, and if any of us care about the Philippines we should adjust our view given the information presented which is flashing red across the board.
You believe what Putin says?
Joey, it just doesn’t make sense for him to go up against Trump and push past Ukraine right now. one, cuz Ukraine’s got weapons too now. two, cuz Poles are salivating at the thought of Putin going into Germany. so his best bet right now is to stand down, wait for a more permissive US president.
I’m sorry to say that this line of reasoning defies logic and reason. Every President who pushed back against foreign aggression and won wars in the last century were all Democrats, by the way. Democrats walk the walk with national security, Republicans after Reagan have just been tough talkers of whom quite a few got caught making money with Russia or China.
Actually, Poland will protect its border and keep the Russians away from Germany as there isn’t any way Russia can reach Germany nowadays without passing through Poland. Not even from formerly German Kaliningrad, formerly Königsberg, capital of East Prussia. The original Prussians were Baltics BTW and are recognizable by certain surnames quite similar to Lithuanian ones. The Prussians of later were German settlers. Doesn’t happen often that settlers take on the name of the natives. BTW the Poles I have talked to about the war have said that allowing Putin peace just gives him a chance to regroup that he should never get. THAT is how deep Polish distrust of Russia goes. The Ukrainian language is closer to Polish than to Russian I gather. These things count in Europe. The further East you go the more.
Well those who have lived under communism and the Russian Empire never want to be forced back in. As soon as the USSR fell, I don’t recall even one former Eastern Bloc country not running away from Russia as fast as they could. The Polish, Finnish, and Baltics hate the Russians with a passion. They all say that allowing Putin peace allows Russian regroup, which is exactly what they did after the ceasefire in 2014, and have done throughout Russian history.
Western Ukrainian dialect has some Polish influences due to the Ukrainian Cossacks being part of the Polish–Lithuanian Commonwealth for hundreds of years. That’s also why West Ukraine is mostly Catholic while East Ukraine is mostly Orthodox. In terms of language, Ukrainian is an Eastern Slavic language and is more closely related to Belorussian, then Russian is the next linguistic relation. Polish is a Western Slavic language. In any case, Proto-Slavic originated at the crossroads of modern Ukraine, Poland, Belorussia before the proto-language branched off with migrations.
Kievan Rus’, the ancient East Slavic state ruled by the Norse Rurikids, are the people who would later become Ukrainian, Belorussian, Russian. The Russians originated from the Duchy of Moscow, who were Kievan Rus’ outcasts and criminals who settled in the swamps of Muscovy. When the Mongols conquered Kievan Rus’, the Moscovites willingly became the Golden Horde’s vassal and got their title upgraded to “prince.” The Ukrainians were reduced to becoming the Cossacks while they were under Mongol rule. Later when the Golden Horde became weak, Moscow defeated the small contingent of Mongol soldiers present and declared independence. This is also around the time Moscow started to fancy themselves as the original Slavs, though that’s not the case linguistically, and despite Kievan Rus’ still being in written history about 250 years prior. The now-Russians simply declared that they were the original Kievan Rus’ and the Ukrainian Cossacks who had always been there, were not legitimate heirs to Kievan Rus’. Thus started the Russian imperial project that has lasted until now.
Well, a lot of European problems go back a long way. Thousand years grievances, just like in Asia. Sometimes I start to understand why America gets tired of dealing with it.
Democrats walk the walk with national security,
You said it yourself, Joey. That Obama was wrong in Crimea and WPS, I’m just adding ISIS though thats more related to the Arab Spring (in Syria). which I blame on Hillary. But ISIS got to take root, then it was Trump that got rid of them. why the Kurds are there now.
ISIS is not at all related to Arab Spring. Arab Spring was a democracy movement. ISIS existed since the late 1990s and the conditions for their rise was W. Bush’s installing incompetent Iraqi leaders in his nation building project (which had good intentions). The Iraqis ran even though they had superior equipment and numbers. Nothing Obama could’ve done to prevent the Iraqis from running.
Crimea had zero European support besides the usual scolding by the Europeans while expecting the US to do all the work. Even now in the Ukraine-Russia War the US is providing the bulk of support.
Let’s place the blame where it belongs. The Arabs who can’t take care of their own security, and the Europeans who cared more about getting cheap Russian gas than protecting their Eastern flank.
Trump barely did anything with ISIS. The Kurds did the bulk of the fighting.
So you’re saying the Kurds just didn’t fight for Obama? c’mon.
As for ISIS, Syria fell and ISIS took over, Joey. But Obama dragged his feet, allowed them to metastisize. Why it was only during Trump’s time they fell. Trump let loose SOCOM on them. that’s how Kurds won it. Obama didn’t act.
Counter with the fact that Democrats don’t boast. Trump took credit for the work of others (including Obama with the Kurds against ISIS), just like he took credit for Obama’s economy. Let me tell you something, the Kurds hate Trump with a passion. He abandoned them to Assad, the Iranians and Russia.
Crimea had zero European support besides the usual scolding by the Europeans while expecting the US to do all the work. Even now in the Ukraine-Russia War the US is providing the bulk of support.
that’s like the WPS then, because Obama chose to look away.
Why is it the US’s obligation to do everyone else’s work for them? And still get crapped on? The WPS is the responsibility of Filipinos and Filipinos alone. And if the Philippines need help, I’m sure the US would gladly help. But let’s not blame the US as if it’s our sovereign territory to defend. Where the US does all the heavy lifting and still gets blamed for everything. Screw that ungrateful behavior by other countries. That’s what got us into this mess of more and more Americans not giving a damn what happens to other countries.
Sorry bud, usually I laugh when we troll each other but it’s one sided today and I’m angry. I’m going to grab my AR and go shooting.
Let me tell you something, the Kurds hate Trump with a passion. He abandoned them to Assad, the Iranians and Russia.
Remember I’m saying had Hillary kept Syria in tact there would be no ISIS in Syria. Then Obama dragged his feet. Obama did end up helping the Kurds. maybe what 40% to 50% diminished ISIS, then Trump took over, pretty much finishing up what Obama started. so yeah I agree with you Obama should’ve said hey I started that, but all moot cuz his State sec Hillary got Syria going down hill. then ISIS expanded under Obama. which coulda been nipped in the bud. allowed to fester. thus Trump finished it, so credit should go to him, Joey.
I’m going to grab my AR and go shooting.
It’s too dark now, plus its too windy.
It was fine. Wind drift can be compensated for. Both didn’t affect my group. Plus might as well use each firearm once in a while because I’d need to keep them oiled anyway.
This is bad for the Philippines in more ways than one, and if any of us care about the Philippines we should adjust our view given the information presented which is flashing red across the board.
What do you propose?
Well, maybe this is finally the Philippines’ chance to shine, enact good governance, and take security matters more seriously! Hah!
I can drink to that. like a kick in the butt in a manner of speaking.
Symone Sanders is her name, Joey.
oooooooopss… sorry hit the wrong reply. this goes with the trans discussion.
The change in US policy to give the Philippines more autonomy was due to many factors, but the main factor was domestic American opposition to becoming an imperial power as that would be going against American idealism. Some American tycoons of that Gilded Age era felt so strongly in the American ideal that Andrew Carnegie, among others, offered to pay the US Government $20 million to grant the Philippines immediate independence — in 1898 at the conclusion of the Spanish-American War. Some Filipino historians like to place more emphasis on 12 independence missions as being the main cause, but that nationalistic re-writing conveniently disregards the fact that the first independence mission occurred in 1919, while the Jones Act was passed in 1916. The Jones Act’s preamble made explicit the guarantee of independence “as soon as a stable government can be established.”
I don’t think Prof. Ileto’s take is right. One must remember that UP has a curious tendency to produce nationalistic historians who seem to try to rewrite history in a non-neutral, pro-Philippines way. A shame when that penchant leads to exaggerating the basis in truth a bit too far. My take is that the US support of Quezon that led to the independence provisions of the Tydings-McDuffie Act in 1934 was out of genuine admiration for Quezon’s capability, and a recognition that the Philippines was “nearly ready.” A neutral position would be that though the US wanted to be rid of colonies soon in the decade after the Spanish-American War, the US also feared the territories would fall into becoming colonies of European powers if the people were not ready to govern themselves. I don’t think supporting Quezon had much to do with Ricarte, though Ricarte later got his wish of pro-Japanese “help,” when he turned into a Imperial Japanese puppet in the Executive Commission alongside Laurel.
Well, I don’t think the US shifted quickly to give independence within 10 years of the Tydings-McDuffie Act as being mainly caused by things like the Watsonville/Stockton riots, though in the end the riots did cause the language limiting free migration of Filipinos to the US to be inserted. One must remember that traditionally the US Congress passes what we colloquially call “Big Laws” or “Big Acts,” that are many smaller laws that are bundled together into one law. The limit on Filipino migration despite the Philippines being a US territory was due to pressure from farm worker’s unions, whose mostly poor White members were suffering from the Great Depression at the time. Farm owners would hire Filipino sakadas, who didn’t know their labor rights and due to lack of English did not join worker’s unions, and thus were happy to be paid pittance wages (not much has changed, hehe) undercutting American farm laborers.
George Washington warned against foreign entanglements, meaning becoming involved in foreign wars. America was founded as a “frontier” nation and thus has always had an isolationist streak, going back to George Washington. However, that form of isolationism did not mean incuriosity about what goes on in the world. On the contrary, many of the American Founding Fathers were active in the Old World as diplomats or spokesmen for the US to attract European investment.
Prior to WWI, most Americans did not want to be involved. Woodrow Wilson was sympathetic to the British and French, but he had no political capital to join the Entente against the Central Powers. The Zimmermann Telegram and unrestricted U-boat warfare against American trade changed that. The reason for American isolationism prior to WWII was different. During the 1930s with the rise of fascism in Italy and Germany, the German American Bund was quite powerful in disseminating its message among German immigrants and other disaffected White Americans. The US weathered a near fascist takeover (1933 Business Plot) while American Nazis rallied at Madison Square Garden in 1939. Again it took external threats to unite Americans again, after the Attack on Pearl Harbor.
The Civil War, Women’s Suffrage Movement, Civil Rights Movement, and 1990s gay movements were fights over expansion of the rights of the Constitution, primarily the right to equality. Those who oppose expansion of equality are those whose systemic power was threatened. There is the popular saying: “When you’re accustomed to privilege, equality feels like oppression” which is especially poignant in the American context of the original sin of slavery. I discourage the use of “political correctness” as the term has no actual meaning and is an American right-wing invention that has become mainstreamed, as many right wing propagandas do; mostly the term just means “I want to the right to say asshole things without being socially rejected for it.”
The US is geographically large, so it’s more like America has 50 versions of herself, more if subregions of large states and territories are included. The difference between Western Europe and the US’s versions of themselves is while each version of America is quite prideful in its uniqueness and strength, the idealism of America was always the common thread that held everyone together as Americans. What’s happening in the last 4 decades and accelerated by Trumpism is unlike anything America has ever experienced. Grievance politics has traditionally not worked for American politicians, but it has a strong grip on a third of the population. Consequently, that third are those who were directly affected by globalization, which if we are going to admit, was an attempt to transfer American resources (labor, profits) to developing nations in order to maintain global peace through trade. Greedy businessmen and China’s export policies undermined the plan, accelerating grievance. Joe Biden was the first President to have the courage to do something about it, and he has done great work pursuing those policies immediately upon his ascension to the Presidency, but I fear it will all be for nought as its a bit too late. Now it will be undone and accelerate grievance.
Ireneo, do you think these two graphs are still accurate especially after the Trump win? Where do you see things changing. Baltic states for sure will go up i think to match Scandinavian levels. UK will be less accommodating to Russia oligarchs already happening. But all the African/ME immigration (legal or otherwise) I’m sure will nudge conservatives towards Putin than not. Why Wagner is creating havoc in south of Saharan countries driving more folks to EU.
Sandro will save the Philippines.
To Joey’s curation of news, this is kinda relevant:
People are addicted to little glowing screens and the immediate dopamine hit one gets from social media outrage. This has been well documented, and Zuckerberg admitted as much that Facebook tried to clean out fake news but realized outrage makes more money, so they went with the money. All other social media platforms followed. Without carefully curating news and information, the algorithm quickly sucks one into an echo chamber of conspiracy theories. People are too lazy to read. Too lazy to even spend 2 seconds Googling something and checking multiple sources.
Well said.
The triumph of disinformation, opportunism, and greed.
The truest statement here.
In part, it is a side effect of social media algorithms. I have seen especially on YouTube how that works and how fast it works. If I watch a Jurassic World clip, I get more suggested to me, clearly a way to give people what they might want.
I like reading old-school printed papers from time to time as they have a balanced mix of stuff, even about the things I don’t usually click on YouTube or Facebook. The danger of tunnel vision due to social media is ever present even for the well-informed. Tiktok is the worst as it destroys the attention span with its super short clips. That is one app I no longer have. I don’t miss Twitter either with all its flare-ups. I miss a bit the early 90s when my brother and I zapped between the many new cable channels, and our father told us life is about sticking to choices.
I kinda like the youtube algorithms, just my recent Carl Jung watches have already provided me with Stuart Hammeroff, Bruce Greyson, and weirdly Lisa Piccirrillo who does Topology (which is totally different, but kinda related with consciousness stuff weirdly).
But I don’t think its the algorithm per se, Ireneo. like 20 Million just decided to not vote at all, they coulda just done so by mail if it was too much of a bother, Ireneo. cuz Trump actually got less of the popular vote from 74M to 71M. So Dems just decided to stay home and/or not bother voting at all. 20M of them!!!
What happened to them? they came out for Biden but not Kamala, it was the same rhetoric same situation really. where were they?
ooooooops… just read Joe’s comment at the other thread, the above is a rhetorical question, Ireneo. sorry, Joe. (but I do think the algorithm is what you make of it, like ice-cream from Trader Joe’s is so good, but I have to stop at some point and eat my veggies, but yeah I’m gorging on Carl Jung content right now and whatever tangents the algorithm suggests, its like thank you may i have another…)
Ugh. He’ll be just a puppet of his auntie Imee.
Most of Eastern Europe is skeptical of immigrants AND of Russia. Though who favors Russia has other historical and cultural reasons as well, especially with Greece and Bulgaria. Identity counts a lot more in Europe, unlike in the USA, which Americanizes people very quickly.
For Poland being how it is, check this: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Warsaw_Uprising
For Finland, check this out: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Independence_of_Finland
Scandinavia: still Vikings, in a way. Swiss: still a Confederation of citizen militia bearing arms.
Southeastern Europe is borderline tribal. Turks always have been nationalistic and martial.
Germans, unlike Filipinos who memorize without caring, take their lesson plan seriously.
The lesson after WW2 was to not start war again. Will a revised lesson plan be created?
In Western Europe, there are few left from the generation that experienced WW2 as teens at least. My uncle from Dresden, who as a teen was made to clean up the aftermath of the bombing night, died as a paraplegic alcoholic in the 1980s in Hamburg BTW. Deep trauma.
I was talking to my mother during Covid about how spoiled the young acted, while she said that their generation, kids who experienced the hard postwar period, stayed disciplined throughout. Well, they are now getting used to late trains, 40 years ago, people noted just a minute delay. Regarding Eastern Europe, Poland also voted against abortion. These societies are basically what you get if you emerge from a cage you have been in since 1945 in 1989. Fortunately, most of Europe never went for OA American wokeness. Not even super liberal Holland and Nordics.
My uncle from Dresden, who as a teen was made to clean up the aftermath of the bombing night, died as a paraplegic alcoholic in the 1980s in Hamburg BTW. Deep trauma.
I wonder if he saw Kurt Vonnegut here, cuz in his most recent (i think only documentary) that guy was really screwed up. dealt with his trauma thru his writings. Dresden, he kept writing DOD why they had to bomb Dresden.