(HYPOTHETICAL) PRESIDENTIAL ADDRESS TO THE NATION
(HYPOTHETICAL) PRESIDENTIAL ADDRESS TO THE NATION
By Karl Garcia
“GUMAGAWA NA ANG PILIPINO” | “THE FILIPINO BUILDS”
Magandang gabi, mga kababayan.
Good evening, my fellow Filipinos.
I speak to you tonight not with a memorandum, not with a bill number, not with an acronym from a bureaucracy you have never heard of — but as your President, as a Filipino, and as a father who has asked himself, again and again, what kind of country we are leaving to those who come after us.
For too long, we have accepted that we are a nation of consumers, not producers. We buy the cars. Someone else builds them. We drive the jeepneys. Someone else manufactures the engines. We fill our roads with vehicles from Thailand, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, and China — and we have told ourselves that this is simply the way things are.
Tonight, I tell you: that is not who we are. That is not who we will become.
I. THE COUNTRY WE HAVE BEEN — AND WHY WE WILL NOT STAY THERE
President Manuel Quezon once said that he would rather have a country run imperfectly by Filipinos than perfectly by others. Today, I echo that truth. Our automotive sector has not even been run imperfectly — it has been largely abdicated. We have barely tried to build.
From 2021 to 2025, the Philippines attracted USD 1.52 billion in automotive investment. Thailand: USD 10.32 billion. Indonesia: USD 9.10 billion. Vietnam, twenty years ago with no domestic vehicles, now has VinFast producing EVs for America and Europe — from empty land to a factory in 21 months.
This is national will translated into national action. Bakit hindi tayo nagawa ito? Why have we not done this? Barriers exist, yes — but they are real problems with real solutions.
We have talent, ingenuity, and resilience. The missing element has been coordinated strategy and operational governance. Tonight, we lay the foundation for both.
II. STRATEGIC PATIENCE: THE LESSON FROM KOREA
South Korea once stood where we stand now. In the 1960s, Korean industries were fragile, untested, and globally uncompetitive. Through deliberate, patient, sequenced governance, Korea built a manufacturing powerhouse, integrating industrial planning, infrastructure, education, and finance into a cohesive national vision.
The Philippines can replicate this if we choose systems over ad hoc projects, institutions over personalities, and patience over impulse. Strategic patience is not delay; it is deliberate action.
III. THE PHILIPPINE TRANSFORMATION ROADMAP
Tonight, I present a blueprint for national transformation — a roadmap for industries, jobs, governance, and security.
1. Cluster-Based Industrial Development
Investments will concentrate in strategic clusters — corridors of production, innovation, and export potential.
- Northern Luzon Automotive and Renewable Energy Cluster
- Central Visayas Electronics and Shipbuilding Cluster
- Mindanao Agro-Industrial and Strategic Resource Cluster
Within each cluster, infrastructure, energy, digital connectivity, and workforce development grow together, ensuring cumulative impact across industries. No project stands alone.
2. Phased Industrial Sequencing
Transformation happens in phases, not overnight:
- Phase 1: Critical infrastructure, logistics, and human capital
- Phase 2: Domestic production scaling, supply chain localization
- Phase 3: Global integration and export readiness
Each phase builds upon the last, creating systemic, long-term impact.
3. Education Aligned with Industry
Workers will be ready for every phase, from engineering to logistics to factory management.
- Vocational training in industrial technology
- STEM expansion in public schools
- University-industry partnership programs
Filipinos will lead the production, innovation, and management, not merely follow foreign operations.
4. Institutional Anchors
To survive political cycles, we strengthen:
- NEDA for national development planning
- NSC for security and strategic coordination
- Tri-capital coordination hubs for economic, political, and technological integration
These anchors ensure continuity beyond electoral cycles.
5. Strategic FDI Engagement
We will welcome investors who bring technology, skills, and market access, integrating industrial clusters globally while retaining domestic value.
IV. THE URGENCY OF DIRECT DEMOCRACY
Mga kababayan, a nation that builds must also govern with its citizens actively engaged. People power is not an occasional display of protest; it is a continuous, operational principle.
In 2020, I argued that citizen participation must be institutionalized. By 2024, the urgency is undeniable. Filipinos cannot rely solely on moments of intervention to define democracy. Citizens must have routine, structured, and actionable roles in governance.
A clear example is the Payoyo Petition concerning RA 12064 and RA 12065. Legal experts highlighted a gap: citizens, though constitutionally empowered to participate in lawmaking via initiative, referendum, and recall, rarely have operational pathways to influence laws before enactment.
We will change that.
1. Making Direct Democracy Operational
We will implement fully legal, procedural, and constitutionally consistent mechanisms:
- Citizen assemblies at the barangay and canton level for law deliberation
- Digital platforms enabling structured initiative and referendum proposals
- Randomly selected, demographically representative panels to review national legislation
- Direct citizen input on budget allocation, local development, and cluster strategy
- Transparent tracking of citizen suggestions and government responses
- Mechanisms ensuring recall and accountability for officials failing to uphold public trust
This will make democracy continuous, not episodic — responsive, inclusive, and effective.
V. COMMUNITY POWER: BARANGAYS AND CANTONS
Our nation is defined not only by Manila, Cebu, or Davao, but by over 42,000 barangays. These local nodes are the backbone of governance:
- Delivering services and resolving disputes
- Monitoring local development and environmental compliance
- Contributing to civil and maritime defense
Cantons provide provincial autonomy, while tri-capitals coordinate strategy across:
- Political Capital: Manila
- Economic/Industrial Capital: Cebu/Clark
- Strategic Defense Capital: Davao/Zamboanga
This networked, multi-nodal governance system ensures local autonomy and national coherence, while citizens are actively embedded in policy and operational decisions.
VI. THE ARCHIPELAGO FORTRESS DOCTRINE
Our islands are strength, not vulnerability.
- Dispersed, hardened, technologically enabled units will secure territory
- NSIO (National Strategic Integration Office) ensures strategic cohesion
- MFC (Maritime Fusion Center) fuses intelligence, maritime monitoring, and anti-access assets
- Barangays participate in civil defense, environmental monitoring, and maritime security
The Archipelago Fortress Doctrine turns geography into a strategic defensive advantage.
VII. INDUSTRY, ECONOMY, AND NATIONAL WILL
We will manufacture, not just consume:
- Domestic automotive and shipbuilding
- Modernized agriculture and fisheries
- STEM-driven workforce development
- Clustered supply chains aligned with global markets
The Philippine Automotive Sector Enabling Legislative Package is the first concrete step. This is not for corporations alone — it is for every Filipino who has labored, studied, and dreamed of national self-reliance.
VIII. THE BURDEN OF NOW
I am asked if this is the right moment. We face territorial pressures, fiscal limits, and an approaching election cycle. My answer: when, if not now?
The window to become an ASEAN industrial hub closes by 2030. Delay risks permanent relegation to a consumption-only economy.
The best time to plant a tree was twenty years ago. The second-best time is today. Today is the day we plant.
IX. GEOPOLITICAL AND ECONOMIC STRATEGY
We are strategic partners, not satellites:
- Territorial sovereignty is non-negotiable
- Maritime, industrial, and economic security are integrated
- Citizens are empowered to participate continuously in governance and defense
We will build strength while partnering commercially with the world.
X. THE CALL TO ACTION
I ask Congress, local governments, institutions, and citizens:
Defend our seas. Empower our communities. Build our industries. Participate continuously in governance.
This is a national mission, not partisan politics.
XI. CONCLUSION: THE FILIPINO BUILDS
In 1935, President Quezon told Filipinos they were ready for self-government. Tonight, I declare: Filipinos are ready to build, innovate, defend, and govern.
The engineers are ready. The workers are ready. The capital is ready. The market is ready. Our partners are ready. The citizens are ready to exercise direct, operational democracy.
All that is needed — all that has ever been needed — is the will.
Tonight, we declare that will. We send to Congress the Philippine Automotive Sector Enabling Legislative Package — five bills, one future, one Philippines that builds.
Gumagawa na ang Pilipino. The Filipino builds. Mabuhay ang Pilipinas. Mabuhay ang bawat Pilipino. Long live the Philippines. Long live every Filipino.
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[…] BINI will be on the Coachella stage on two consecutive Fridays. The Philippines is, hopefully, on the road not only to a stronger presence on the world stage, but also to building more opportunities at home through industries like music – and maybe cars? […]
The Society of Honor by Joe America 
Reposting my comment from the previous article:
I finished my analysis of how a Philippines automotive industry might be built and what supporting legislation would be required. The analysis is a complete package, including:
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fo/dkdvxxcbd861ohg2f5dk1/APAu4kfrF_6rRfoK8UPR1aE?rlkey=bbwylv47h4hvrl9lp64pvh9na&st=dz7kzgwv&dl=0
As I mentioned before I used Claude and OpenClaw, fed with industry studies, industry data, historical analysis, corporate investment reports, and government reports from the UN, US, Japan, South Korea. The outputted report artifacts are quite heavy so I appreciate anyone taking the time to read through it but the conclusions are eye-opening and urgent.
As someone who is a manufacturing industry veteran (and spend a good amount of time in the automotive sector), I know well how the OEM (Tier-0) and Supply Chain (Tier-1, Tier-2, Tier-3) supports a great number of jobs whose salaries support even more downstream service jobs (shopping malls, food vendors, transportation providers, dental/medical services, etc. etc.). The Philippines leaders need to stop thinking about specific industries as an end result or end goal but rather target industries that create economic multipliers. I’ve long believed that the tendency to think in terms of “others have car companies, why can’t we have one?” then stopping because things look too complicated is a major reason why the Philippines can’t seem to think strategically. A major industry like a automotive industry is not just a matter of national pride in a domestic car brand, but it is an enabler and pipeliner for hundreds of thousands of jobs.
Five Most Important Takeaways:
1. The Philippines Has a Closing Window — and the Capital to Act
2. The Production Offset Obligation Is the Most Powerful Single Instrument
3. The Philippines Has a Hidden Automotive Superpower It Has Never Deployed
4. Geopolitics Is an Asset, Not Only a Constraint
5. The Filipino People Are the Argument — and the Destination
Cost-Benefit Assessment:
https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/tutavgqxnbacvglnb8wpv/GDP.PNG?rlkey=l8uv79c997df2dqdmrhzjcglh&e=1&st=pmorsyu9&dl=0
Thanks again. I wanted to work on that but nobody does it better.
I ran the following prompt on ChatGPT, uploading files 2, 3 and 4..
the result was this which is extremely interesting:
now I asked for a more detailed (one sentence per section) summary of document 2 by ChatGPT and got this:
for document 3 I got this:
document 4 I will read in detail until this evening..
What I can say is in my studies of post-Đổi Mới Reform (1986-) Vietnam industrial policy, Vietnam’s economic planners study quite closely the Korean Model — the canonical example of compressed industrialization strategy achieving success. In addition the Japanese Model and Taiwanese Models were both studied extensively, and while Vietnam industrial policy is mainly informed by the Korean Model, elements have been taken from the Japanese and Taiwanese Models as well. Crucially the lessons taken were applied to the Vietnamese context to inform where Vietnam may begin not where Vietnam will finish. All the above 3 countries being of the old Sinosphere and sharing a Confucian framework does help in making ideas portable.
Specifically I see evidence of Vietnam replicating the South Korean chaebǒl system within a Vietnamese context. In Vietnamese policy papers POSCO is often cited as a major foundational industry (steel) that enabled the expansion of supporting and higher-value industries. State policy and industrial execution follows accordingly.
Vietnam and South Korea being in the old Sinosphere also have had a rivalry within that sphere. Eventually the Vietnamese king considered himself more legitimate within the Confucian framework than the Chinese suzerain whose court was accused of degrading into decadence. Eventually the Joseon king did the same, in a sort of rivalry. But there was also a historical figure, the exiled Prince Lý Long Tường/Lee Yong Sang (이용상) the last survivor of the Lý Dynasty who taught the Goryeo court how to fight and defeat the Mongol invasions which the Vietnamese had done before multiple times. Prince Lý Long Tường/Lee Yong Sang went on to found the still existent Hwasan Lee Clan which has produced numerous Korean military heroes. The Hwasan Lee Clan, though now smaller, were crucial in bridging relationships between Vietnam and South Korea, turning distrust into cooperation.
There are multiple other threads to pull on that all come together, but the common through line is that South Korea ended up investing the most FDI into Vietnam (along with the US, Taiwan, Japan, China).
1. SK Group invested $1 billion into VinGroup’s VinFast, providing both startup capital and a major credibility signal to other investors who started pouring in.
2. SK On (formerly SK Innovation) has multiple EV battery manufacturing investments in Vietnam.
3. Samsung is the largest investor in Vietnam, giving access to an electronics supply chain and prioritization for Samsung chip fabs.
4. Both Hyundai and Kia are major investors in Vietnam’s CKD and JV operations, which recently achieved 40% local content.
The Philippines elite attitude when it comes to planning is much different and to be frank amounts to waiting around for some richer benefactor to give things for free. How is this any different from what elites look down on poor Filipinos for being so bobo in doing? If things can’t be given for free then elites are fine with skimming an it of tax and excise off the top of imports. EVIDA ended up being a complete giveaway to foreign imports because a small segment of richer Filipinos wanted BEVs. CARS is a flawed and unstable program that no one has apparently noticed only gets as many cars assembled in the Philippines as needed to capture tax concessions. Either way, that won’t give Filipino businesses that have capital lying around confidence to build anything.
Reading Alice in Wonderland by Lewis Carroll to less privileged kids at church this afternoon and came to this famous exchange between Alice and the Cheshire Cat:
https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/449586-alice-would-you-tell-me-please-which-way-i-ought
Without a clear and specific goal consistently applied, any action or path taken will merely lead to an arbitrary “somewhere.” Purpose and deliberate planning along with application are important in ensuring desired outcomes…
I have skimmed over Document 4, the 5 to 10 year Blueprint yesterday.. this is one document I will print out to read the 20 pages meticulously. It somehow reminds me of a business plan but at national level. You will probably see how many people have already downloaded it on Dropbox – I wonder if it is more than a handful, aka 5 people. And I am still skeptical that most Filipino lawmakers will see it as anything more than “plans-plans” to quote Sen Bato.
next I have to – like Germany itself haha – catch up when it comes to all the EV stuff. Or in general understand the automotive industry a bit more – as I just learned about Tier 1-x days ago. Will be with questions tomorrow as today and tomorrow are holidays in Germany. (P.S. edited out the conditionals in the last sentence.. because as Master Yoda said, there is no try, only do)
Unfortunately there is no view/download counter on Dropbox. There is a folder-level bandwidth limit (~20GB/day) which is hard to hit for documents.
Per my analysis the Philippines is basically going to be locked out of participating in the manufacturing side of the BEV transition unless there is entry before 2030. So inaction by Congress and the President will be to the detriment of the economy. Essentially the OFW and BPO income, which I elaborated together with Francis, is what enables the FOREX outflow needed for importing goods that Filipinos want. Both OFW and BPO are on precarious ground for different reasons. I figured if somehow a version of this analysis could get in front of the President he might be able to set some expectations of “support me now” so he can possibly push the plan through if he does choose to either run as a tandem or support the next administration. Imagine pulling 700K Filipinos out of poverty and actually paying engineers a decent salary so they don’t migrate!
My time in the automotive industry was solidly in the pre-BEV era. I am also a fan of automotive sports and have done some amateur street/highway racing myself. I appreciate the sing-song nature of ICE sports cars, which is largely absent in my daily-driver PHEV. My favorite owned car was my old BMW E60 M5 with its raucous S85 V10. However ICE is numbered as a propulsory tech. ICE is also very complicated, requiring highly engineered motors connected to equally highly engineered transmissions and clutches. Things get even more complicated if a vehicle has AWD or 4WD as now multiple transfer cases need to be thrown into the mix.
Contrast with BEVs which are essentially skateboards with a battery pack. Typically on a BEV there is an electric single-motor that drives either the front or rear axel, or dual-motors that independently drive the front and rear axels. Tri-motors are usually configured with two small motors inside the front wheels and a third motor driving the rear wheels. Quad-motors have a small motor inside each wheel. Batteries until quite recently were basically a battery pack made of standard 18650, 2170, 4680 Li-Ion cylindrical batteries (the type laptop battery packs used to use after moving from Ni-MH to Li-Ion before moving to molded Li-Po non-replaceable batteries), All modular, like building a LEGO set.
Actually the most complicated part of a BEV is the Battery Management System (BMS) and the vehicle’s software (which replaces dozens of ECUs on an ICE car). Still, much easier to engineer and build than ICE cars, which is why the Chinese were able to vault so quickly ahead in BEVs. The Chinese had been struggling for years to develop ICE technology (and mostly failing to reach the efficiencies of American, Japanese, and German ICE tech). BEV is a game changer. The biggest Chinese contribution to BEVs is mass-producing clones of more energy-dense (non-cylindrical) automotive battery packs (AFAIK pioneered by LG Chemical) more cheaply, which BYD was the leader in cheaper batteries before they jumped into BEVs.
Now when it comes to VinFast’s strategy, the chassis, monocoque, and styling were all done in-house, as well as the wiring harnesses. I admit the styling on VinFast cars is very nice, which is not a surprise as they hired the top automotive designers in the industry, just like the South Koreans did that transformed Korean cars from being ugly boxes to futuristic and luxurious machines. AFAIK VinES (VinGroup Energy Solutions) sources battery tech licenses from Gotion (China) and Samsung SDI, while having a JV with LG Chemical to produce automotive battery packs. The battery tech and pack production are the main foreign technology transfers VinFast needed. VinFast software still sucks (although re-reviewers said updates have vastly improved the software), but would a Philippines company be able to take the massive criticism VinFast received from reviewers that mostly about the crappy automotive software, take it with humility, and go back with a mindset of self-improvement?
OK as I am pretty much a beginner in these areas, I uploaded document number 4 and asked ChatGPT for this:
and wow it explained it much like Isaac Asimov in his popular science books that made me like science:
I can almost make a Powerpoint presentation out of this but first better read as at least I somewhat understand the 20 pages I am reading now.
Yes AI does help with summarization, though I find ChatGPT can be a bit sycophantic-sounding in its replies at times which can cause the wrong type of bias reinforcement. I much prefer Claude’s much more matter-of-fact style and ability to delve into deeper research, though Claude can trip up as well (it forgot the date for me last week).
I did try to make the research as concise as possible, though I might have made the outputs a bit too concise… I have a tendency to think in terms of the IT-Business Interface as I mainly spend my time in roles within that area (BA, PM, BRM, EA). I forget to broaden out the content for the audience sometimes and probably should’ve included initial definitions of acronyms hehe.
Are there any specific parts of my analysis that you’re having a hard time understanding that I can help explain?
Glad to help!
I now asked ChatGPT to make a slide deck for the public communications (File 8, which I do understand when I read it) in a simplified manner and this came out:
to wit, the following five laws the are proposed:
– Philippine Automotive Resurgence and Electrification Act of 2026 (PAREA) – creating a coordinating agency, basically
– Electric Vehicle Manufacturing Investment Act of 2026 (EVMIA) – creating an investment framework
– Green Public Transport Electrification Fund Act of 2026 (GPTEFA) – making it easier for tricycle and jeepney operators to go electric
– Industrial Power Competitiveness Act of 2026 (IPCA) – making da koryente cheaper forda pactory (couldn’t help this, sorry ha)
– Philippine Automotive Testing and Certification Centre Act of 2026 (PATCCA) – DOST backed (makes sense as DOST has the people for that)
OK, this indeed might work in the Philippine setting – if there is political will to do it.
Now I asked for a summary of impact-analysis (File 6) but not in a way that reads like Wikipedia Simple English, more graduate level and got this:
reminds me of ROI computations I have seen for software projects – I have put what I consider most important in bold font. Awrrightt..
Karl, all this is something I can turn into an article, it would take some weeks to do well but it can be done. The purpose after all is to convince people who might read here to bring this to people who can convince those who make decisions. (P.S. article is coming out on April 26th)
P.P.S. glossary:
– ICE (internal combustion engine) and BEV (battery electric vehicle)
– CARS (Comprehensive Automotive Resurgence Strategy Program) of 2015
– EVIDA (Electric Vehicle Industry Development Act) of 2022
so 1. ASEAN Automotive Investment Report says CARS favors ICE/hybrids and not BEVs (not future proof) even if this is just the part I started to read..
also that it has no “local content escalator” which would develop local suppliers (something Radiowealth did only a little – for speakers and transformers)
and that it utilizes the local market too little, instead of subsidizing that it buys electric vehicles..
The Public Communications/Public Relations bit I had written in that style so it is much more simplified for the layman audience.
***
In the Philippine Automotive Testing and Certification Centre Act (PATCCA) there is provision for vocational training for technicians. I have been thinking more about how TESDA has long been underfunded in the Philippines and what sort of effects it had on Philippines development. Detrimental effects for sure.
I’ve mentioned the example of African American progress and the discourse between Booker T. Washington and W.E.B. Du Bois all the way back when I started here. LCPL_X and I used to talk about that subject on more than one occassion. Anyway in short Washington argued for broad upskilling through vocational training to gain social progress for African Americans through gaining respect from Whites by showing African Americans are just as reliable as White American workers, while Du Bois argued that a halo group of “Talented Tenth” would pull everyone else up by forcing Whites to respect the now-obvious talent of Blacks (i.e. the college educated, the doctors, the sportsmen, the culture makers). Washington argued for pragmatic incrementalism while Du Bois argued for radical integrationism. It turned out, one cannot rely on a “Talented Tenth” as not everyone is born with exceptional talent, which is inherent, but most people can be trained to achieve better outcomes than they otherwise would be if they waited around to be “inspired” by luminaries and exceptions within the socioeconomic group.
The Philippines does not have the same exact circumstances that created the Washington vs Du Bois debate within the African American community, but the Philippines did have a analogous debate that seems to have been forgotten in history but has a profound effect: the Thomasites were applying the Washingtonian Hampton-Tuskegee model of education to the Philippines (Prof. Roland Sintos Coloma, Ohio State University) while at the same time the 1903 Pensionado Act followed the Du Boisian “Talented Tenth” model. The problem was the Thomasite program was ended, while the pensionado program was effectively hijacked by the local elite (the ilustrados, the principalia, the hacendados) who recommended to the Governor-General’s Commission their own children and relatives. I guess what happened to UP’s legacy program being hijacked by the wealthy and the prominent was just a repeat of something that happened before (probably on repeat). Clearly, there needs to be a broadening to upskilling along a more Washingtonian model to lift the remaining Class E out of poverty and to build safety nets for Class D so they are no longer a class of precariats. Btw, W.E.B. Du Bois opposed the Philippine-American War, and then closely watched the development in the Philippines quite closely.
***
Actually the CARS and EVIDA programs are worse than the summary spells out. The reasons why are explained in more detail within the analysis, but to simplify:
The bills in the legislative package does address the above deficiencies though by mandating an escalating local content requirement along with conditioned tax concessions.
The five law package does worry me a bit based on what Karl and Gian have told us here. Karl has worked in the halls of Congress so he knows how things roll there. What I found strange is how laws are deliberated there, with huge printouts being read out monotonously and most people not paying attention – at least in the video I saw. So it seems First, Second and with the Third Reading laws become The Gospel, or go to Hell (Senate) or to Purgatory (bicam)?
Seriously, I see real danger that Congress and Senate will dilute the laws and the IRRs will make them even more diluted, or that they pass two laws and then drag their feet on the other three. With Senators I don’t know who is connected with which conglomerate somehow, but I can already imagine some holding up bills for weeks on end because of surnames they “don’t like” – Aboitiz, Ayala, whoever or wanting someone they are indebted to to get a share.
OK maybe the coordinating agency (I forgot the name) you wanted to have created for that initiative is not that hard to create. For the certification agency I would recommend tapping TÜV Rheinland who are veteran technical certifiers and have a presence in the Philippines already – that is my German suggestion, I swear I have no vested interested whatsoever! I guess I can get to writing an article Senators Hontiveros, Aquino, Pangilinan, Legarda and Sotto will understand.
Won’t even try to make it understandable to the likes of Senators Padilla, Estrada and Bato. They will probably scream “Marcos-dilawan cronyism” anyway. Well Ayala and Aboitiz as names already strike me as the more professional among the “oligarchs”, even if they ain’t anything like Japanese zaibatsu.
Making DOST/DTI work together is a very Japanese MITI concept, Karl and Gian would know how to make it work. We want to find ways to make it work.
My entire coming work week and the week after are devoted to a technical go live (or cutover, I think go live is a very SAP term) so no time really to deal with the documents, but next weekend and the weekend after I will be able to re-read the stuff. I do get the gist of it as:
– involving key Tier-O players from Japan etc. to build BEVs (Battery Electric Vehicles)
– utilizing IMI as THE Filipino Tier-1 supplier with their semiconductor capabilities
– moving certification to the Philippines to shorten the process
– subsidizing (?) electric small vehicles built in the Philippines
– have Petron build a network of charging stations
– import substition policy, force importers to increase local supplier percentage every year
– tie together battery production with nickel mined in the Philippines
– TESDA training for personnel in the factories
It does have the “tightness”, business-wise of Henry Sy selling shoes to customers he shined shoes for, or business plan elements:
– what is one already able to do or what can one easily be able to do additionally? (shoeshining to selling shoes)
– where is there a market for that and is one able to reach that market easily? (shoeshine customers)
– how does one finance the business and when can one expect it to earn money? (for a state program it becomes more of an ROI computation)
I can already hear the DDS screaming “they just want to give Meralco back to the Lopezes” (anti-Leni propaganda, 2022) re electricity subsidy. Let’s expect it.
Well to get the Philippines out of the doldrums transformative and creative thinking needs to be done. Somehow Marcos Jr. needs to find the political will and expend the political capital to achieve this. In order to change a system external energy needs to be applied — otherwise things tend to settle back into an equilibrium. Filipinos need to start thinking about the possibility that the 1960s of “being ahead of XYZ Asian countries” was an aberration, fueled by American investments and war spending subsequently squandered.
The huge posters are called “floor charts,” which was a practice that began in the US Congress around 1902 but only gained popularity in use when C-SPAN (private nonprofit which televises US Congressional proceedings) started its first public television broadcast in 1979. Floor charts are used for a number of reasons; originally floor charts were used to underline points to congressional colleagues, nowadays floor charts are meant to be captured by the camera televising/livestreaming the proceeding, which a laptop screen or even big screen TV might not be legible on. Most Congressional proceedings in the US (and in the Philippines) are not attended by all the congressmen/senators but are rather committee/subcommittee proceedings that generate reports and draft bills to be considered by elects before the floor vote. Thus usually only the committee/subcommittee members themselves (and witnesses if witnesses are called) are the active participants. Basically in the US (and Philippines, Canada, many Latin American countries, and Germany) the committee stage goes first before the floor debate and final floor vote. This is a lot different from the British parliamentary system where the floor debate goes first before the committee discussion, resulting in a lot of chaotic shouting (and sometimes fisticuffs).
I was congressional page (back in high school for a summer to a Republican congressman I later opposed years later. I had to prepare floor charts on a number of occasions. The congressional page program ended around 2010-ish well after I left. I also worked as a youth organizer/volunteer for the former Chairman of the Republican Party of California, who I also later opposed along with his congresswoman wife, hah.
Typically concessions need to be handed out to gain support from holdouts. Pork is a type of concession (that is bad and potentially corrupt). But not all concessions are bad. In the context of this legislative package, a congressman may insist that his/her district receive some of the benefits from the bill, e.g. a factory, which he/she can bring home to sell (politically) to his/her constituents and become an achievement to re-run for office on.
That’s the proposed National Automotive Industry Development Board (NAIDB) to be attached to DTI. Filipino electeds love to sit on agency boards, and love even more to sit on task forces and coordinating agencies… so yeah I think that won’t be a problem here lol.
Vietnam’s RQCD testing lab and VMTC certification agency both worked with TÜV Rheinland, Intertek and SGS S.A. to set up the testing lab and certification processes to comply with ISO standards. All three of those corporations have a major presence in Vietnam within the manufacturing industry as well to create testing and certification processes for other things. I note here that Vietnam hired the three companies to help with and consult in creating the testing and certification processes; the companies don’t actually do the testing themselves so there is an emphasis in knowledge transfer rather than hiring a foreigner to do the heavy lifting of thinking and designing like how stuff is usually done in the Philippines.
Yes, in fact the effect of MITI on the “Japanese Miracle” was a major part of my research that went into this analysis. And by now there are also lessons learned about why MITI ultimately loss prominence when MITI did not adapt to deregulation and the aftermath of baburu keiki — the Japanese asset price bubble crisis.
You may have noticed that in the hypothetical speech by the President to sell the legislation to the Philippines, I had it in terms of doing this for Filipinos, not for being beholden to foreigners (not Americans, not Japanese, not South Korean, not Chinese, not any other). I will relish the above DDS senators being publicly pilloried as pro-commie, pro-China, and anti-Filipino as they deserve to be.
After the 2022 general elections Marcos Jr. had a supermajority in both chambers. I was a bit disappointed when he wasn’t more energetic and allowed the Dutertes to gain power in the 2025 midterms. Perhaps unveiling major, transformative legislation that has material effects for a broad section of Filipinos would do good for Marcos Jr. in the second half of his presidency and set him up to have an ally that will carry on most of his major policy into the next presidency.
Take your time as you need to focus on your go live (we use “go live” as well as “cutover;” or rather the go live is the result of the cutover).
P.S. I just read this yesterday:
Vinfast announced the launching of 3 e-scooters in India. One of the same types (E2W) that I had proposed for the Philippines to build an industry for in my analysis. I had no idea that Vinfast already had a JV factory in Tamil Nadu but apparently, they do. This is a company that is moving fast…
The e-scooters have quick-change batteries that create an ecosystem of third-party battery charging suppliers who an provide that service which augments official battery charging locations. Pull in, pay the battery exchange fee, stick in the spent battery and get a freshly charged battery. These e-scooters will cost $750 (€650) to $1,000 (€850). Amazing.
https://www.autocarindia.com/bike-news/vinfast-looking-to-launch-three-electric-scooters-in-india-439304
Tamil Nadu state is historically a big incubator of new enterprises and is willing to take big bets by giving land leases and government support. Also interesting that despite India having its own e-motorcycle and e-scooter OEMs India has no problem with Vietnam coming in to build a factory because it would bring jobs to Indians, while Vinfast is betting it can compete and thrive with local Indian companies that have pre-existing government support.
Certainly lessons the Philippines can glean from all this.
I will formulate this and other risks I see as “challenges” in my article, which can become a learning curve to a new mindset. Mindsets are best acquired by practicing them or having to practice them. I also see challenges in DTI/DOST not being MITI and Filipino oligarchs not being zaibatsus – but it is way more important for the Philippines for these people to learn/practice a more disciplined mindset than having Filipino idol groups learn KPop discipline..
thanks, there is actually spare time, but things can turn into a rush quickly depending on what happens, plus we have running systems and SLAs on them as well, meaning double whammy for Service Owners like me. So I can’t really do so much when it comes to new stuff during the week.
Re English terms I am not always sure if I am using Germanisms, even as I never call conceptualization “conception” like some Germans do because the word here is Konzeption, which reminds me of some Latinos born and raised in USA allegedly using “embarazar” (impregnate IIRC) for embarass..
I think it would be important that whichever lawmaker wants to steer funds from the legislation to his/her district needs to also support the bill. The phenomenon of LGUs just getting a share of the national wealth with minimal work is a big detriment. If the politician representing the LGU wants to put in minimal work they should get minimal funds. I guess a bigger problem is a lot of Filipino politicians and LGU leaders seem perfectly fine with the minimum share. Hopefully things can still work out. That’s okay. Envy is a powerful motivator. So let those who are lazy envy, then show the how they can also partake in the gains if they “put in the work.”
As for the oligarchs, it is true that Filipino oligarchs are more risk-adverse and a bit lazy even compared to oligarchs elsewhere in Asia. Still I doubt they will stay away from an opportunity to make money if there was a legislative framework that created a stable climate in which they might obtain a new revenue stream. Carrots, just give carrots, but not for free and with conditions.
I tend to see the Filipino tendency to bicker over who gets how much of the cake as the greater danger, because they are not used to seeing the cake get bigger. The solution to that is to make the visionary arc of your narrative clear and vivid, first of course find a way to express it in a language the primary readership here understands. And make it convincing enough for some to take it to the secondary readership that has ways of making it happen.
When I came into my “acceptance era” of Marcos Jr. winning in 2022 and saw that he did have a genuine desire to make the Philippines better, I started my “hope era” — hoping he would use the decisive supermajority in both houses of Congress to enact major legislation that would be transformative. I guess I’ll say my single disappointment is that Marcos Jr. did not do that, then got bogged down when first the Duterte allies were directed to undermine, then Sara Duterte declaring open political warfare when Duterte allies like Quiboloy started getting what was due to them.
A common campaign theme is increasing the material condition of the citizen. That theme is popular in the US and it is popular in the Philippines. I mean that’s basically what the dual-promise of most politicians are in every election cycle (the other side of the dual-promise being “a bit upfront” with a bag of relief goods and a vote bribe).
Having been in manufacturing in general, not just automotive, and having worked for Japanese and South Korean enterprises off and on for years, I do understand the Japanese and Korean thinking “just a bit.” Certain Filipinos might gloat about the declining Japanese and South Korean demographics and the aging population of those countries. That is counter-productive as Filipino gloating often is. The Japanese exited the demographic sweet spot starting in the mid-1990s; the South Koreans in the mid-2010s. The Philippines is early on in its demographic sweet spot, which started in the mid-2010s and will run until the mid-2060s. Like Francis, I do not want to see a Philippines in 2065 that watched its demographic sweet spot exiting with nothing to show for it outside of Metro Manila. And if it’s one thing I know about the Japanese and South Koreans is that they like to earn money (don’t we all). Japan and South Korea which both resist immigration on ethno-nationalist grounds just like the Philippines (though Japan is tip-toeing around loosening immigration a bit in specific zones) still like to earn, which is why they are expanding business operations to other countries via wholly-owned structures or joint ventures. I do not see a reason why the Philippines should not take advantage of this and make some money as well while increasing the material condition of the Filipino with jobs and a better life.
I do realize that such an ambitious legislation would incur political costs, political capital that Marcos Jr. has in lesser amount now following the 2025 midterms. But what would Marcos Jr. have to lose? His presidency will end when his term runs out anyway in 2028 — this is a choice of continuing his legacy by finally delivering for the Philippines after decades of lost promises. Marcos Jr. can best do that by establishing a new policy, a new direction now, to position his chosen successor (Leni or whoever). In 2023 Marcos Jr. unveiled his “Bagong Pilipinas” initiative, and what is more “New Philippines” than launching the Philippines towards a future in which a Filipino can have genuine pride in his/her country with products sent around the world bearing the stamp “Made in Philippines?”
we had a VW Brasilia in the Philippines BTW, also an interesting case of localized manufacturing back in the 1970s.
is your plan the EV version of that somehow or is that a far-fetched analogy?
Turns out the owner of Radiowealth also produced Sakbayans, which were I guess a CKD version of an Aussie VW model?
Both the Brasilia and Sakbayan were assembled from imported CKD. The Brasilia CKD was manufactured by VW do Brasil. The Sakbayan CKD was initially manufactured by VW Australia, then VW (West Germany), then VW Brasilia (actually it was a completely different car based on the Brasilia). The West German and Brazilian based Sakbayan did have a semi-locally produced body though. But both cars were either fully or mostly CKD. There wasn’t much local manufacturing. The Philippines government still advertise the Toyota and Mitsubishi operations in Santa Rosa as “manufacturing” although it’s more correctly classed as “assembling” because nothing is locally manufactured.
My proposal starts out with CKD for practical reasons, then there is an escalating local content schedule (the production offset mechanism) which mandates progressively higher locally manufactured components. The POM paired with tax incentives would encourage OEMs to either build factories for local manufacture of parts or partner with a local company to do the same. The goal would be to increase the capability to build inside the Philippines, while keeping pesos circulating within the Philippines economy rather than leaving as FOREX. It is a form of technology transfer.
Just dropping this in here as it is relevant to auto manufacturing discussion.
https://business.inquirer.net/583640/philippines-to-produce-first-ever-local-hybrid-evs-with-mitsubishi
Yes I did see this yesterday. The specific Mitsubishi isn’t known yet but it is probably the XForce (aka Outlander) which is mainly produced in Thailand for the SEA market (with some produced in Indonesia and Malaysia as well). AFAIK Thailand is the only country which exports the XForce/Outlander; Indonesian and Malaysian-built XForce/Outlander are for those domestic markets.
However under EVIDA there is no requirement for a production offset mechanism, meaning Mitsubishi would be importing completely knocked down (CKD) kits of pre-manufactured parts for local assembly to capture tax incentives. While having local Filipino workers assemble cars is a good thing in terms of jobs, Toyota and Mitsubishi will only invest as much as they can capture the tax incentives under CARS and EVIDA. Which my proposal seeks to rectify.
there is this video featuring an interview with the head of the Philippine Parts Maker Association:
a feature video about New Energy Vehicles and EV at the Manila International Automobile show:
another video about electric vehicles fast gaining ground in the Philippines:
all important context for the coming article.
I had time earlier to watch the 3 videos you shared. It’s interesting that Bilyonaryo frames the Mitsubishi HEV investment as “made in Philippines” but then the industry folks emphatically used the term “assembled” (the latter which is correct).
I started off this analysis project with the aim to explore fixes to the CARS EO and the EVIDA law. It looks like the HEV investment would be under CARS since technically a HEV still has an ICE component to the drivetrain. Which is all good since the Mitsubishi investment would allow workers on Mitsubishi Philippines’ Santa Rosa assembly plant to continue their work. But that’s 1,400 Mitsubishi assembly workers vs working towards full local manufacturing capability that would support upwards to 700,000 Filipino workers… Toyota Philippines has around 4,000 assembly workers in Santa Rosa as a reference.
The stories are useful to me to connect the analysis with current events, as most of our readers are definitely laymen or better informed laymen at best.
The names of the industry people I might also mention because who knows if someone among our silent readers happens to know one of them.
BTW re EV batteries producing more in the Philippines might also open up the EU as an export market given that there now seems to be a shortage here.
On targeting an article to laymen — definitely.
I do wonder who Marcos Jr. has advising him outside of the more well-known senior advisors. A lot of opportunities seem to have been passed over post-Covid. I have a suspicion some of it has to do with a failure of imagination and to another degree the attacks from the Duterte-aligned side decreasing political bandwidth. Well, in moments of political crisis it may be useful to recapitalize strength through bold action…
On batteries:
A few years ago (2024) Malacañang unveiled that St. Baker (Australia) was building the StB Giga Factory in New Clark. I wonder how that’s going. St. Baker’s subsidiary Novonix specializes in Lithium Iron Phosphate (LFP) batteries, which are the cheaper new-type batteries used in current BEVs and whole-home/on-premise battery storage systems. I looked up which batteries StB Giga Factory New Clark is building and it is of LFP chemistry.
BUT the Philippines’ mineral wealth is mainly in nickel, which can go into Nickel-metal Hydride (NiMH) batteries which are older and less efficient, or Nickel Manganese Cobalt (NMC) and Nickel Cobalt Aluminum (NCA) batteries which are more energy efficient but more expensive than both NiMH and LFP.
Per press releases it looks like StB Giga Factory New Clark’s production will be about 70% for export to Australia, SEA and North America, with 30% being sold to the Philippines domestic market. Okay even if the LFP materials need to be imported (mainly lithium), this still moves the Philippines up the value-added chain. Also nickel is still a major component in most lithium-including EV/storage battery chemistries (but not in LFP). Philippines nickel is co-associated with Philippines iron ore (i.e. the Philippine lateritic iron ore once processed of the primary iron contains nickel as a secondary metal as a processing byproduct). Although almost all Philippines lateritic iron ore is exported in raw form for processing in other countries (Japan and China)… a similar situation to Philippines raw rubber cup latex which is also exported in raw form for out-country processing, tubs of which I always encounter sitting alongside houses during my treks through Mindanao…
I’d say the President is a busy and hard working man. More active than Aquino in many respects. The failings are within the agencies. Tourism a prime example. Fiasco. There is no drive to most agencies. They preen and make time.
I do not prefer “good tsar, bad boyar” scenarios. Responsibility for the Executive department ends up solely being the responsibility of the President, who presently is Marcos Jr.
That being said one can also be generous and recognize that Marcos Jr. faces a number is issues that could undermine his effectiveness, namely: A bit too much restraint lest be accused of being his father, the early breakup of the Marcos-Duterte alliance and subsequent vicious attacks by Duterte allies, increased aggression by China, and an unstable geopolitical climate.
I think Marcos Jr. is doing the best he can given the aforementioned headwinds and I respect that. He surprised me a lot since I disliked him and did not favor him leading up to the 2022 election. But I also hope he can do a bit more. I think the biggest constraint Marcos Jr. feels at the moment is insufficient political capital. So his advisors, and good people who care about the Philippines should help generate that political capital to be placed into his hands and wielded. That’s my hope anyway. A lot if riding on the 2028 election going the right way.
My bias in analysis, which I view as a form of leadership, is to recognize that achievement is best obtained by inspiring good performance rather than discouraging it by taking the wind out of earnest efforts’ jibs. President Aquino was not perfect say thousands of analysts, well who would care to argue with that nonsense? President Marcos has amazed me, and I am greatly thankful for the direction of the amazement, so I’ll not be among those who say “he’s not perfect”. I just tip my hat to him, suggest a direction or two, and say “keep up the good work, Bubba!”
I think it to be fair to identify the possible causes on why Marcos Jr. isn’t more assertive. It’s also fair to say Marcos Jr. is trying to raise the sails and propel the ship of the Philippines to her destination. I’d like to see that more political capital generated to be wind in the sails so to speak. There are many ways to gain that political capital, some which may be more effective and efficient than others. Projecting the future is difficult and hindsight is 20/20. I do have a deep worry about 2028. In my informal polling (of those I know and those I met with), Filipinos who started doubting the Dutertes are starting to warm up to Sara being president in 2028. I sense a great danger if that is in fact the national trend.
I don’t know if he is passive by dint of an intimidating father or what. In a land of loaded guns, one of which is owned by his sister, the other by his VP, his tendency to seek a non-confrontational public path demonstrates a maturity of statesmanship that few are inclined to acquire in our time of cheap shot social media. I share your concern about 2028 and it fries my bacon that Leni Robredo demonstrates a passivity that does nothing to assuage my worries.
The Philippines has no way to provide 100% content to get to 700,000 workers. If Filipino manufacturers can start making quality parts to feed into the assembly, I’m sure it would be at a lower cost and Mitsubishi would welcome it. But there is no skill set, or equipment, or financing to get there. Maybe Mitsubishi will get some of that started. i dunno. The project is good for the Philippines. I’m happy to see it and hope they sell a bazillion cars here.
Toyota, and Mitsubishi to a lesser extent, only assemble from imported CKD kits as many cars as they can capture incentives for. The incentives are quite low… which is why every other American and Japanese auto manufacturer had left the Philippines assembly market. The South Koreans also left after a very short local assembly operation for the same reasons. Toyota remains because Toyota is okay with slim margins. So given the incentive structure no one’s going to make a ton of cars locally. Auto companies would only assemble up until they captured all available incentives which acts effectively a cap.
In any case it’s good that the Santa Rosa assembly plants can continue and the workers there have work to do. Losing jobs is a bad thing.
My recent analysis and proposal however is a rough outline of a plan to get full local manufacturing into the Philippines, to support those up to 700K workers, with an entire parts manufacturer ecosystem, by increasing incentives via changed incentive structure which promotes increasing local content.
P.S. in my analysis 40% local content was targeted. There is no big company in the world that is able to source 100% local content and IP. The local content requirements are not to support the manufacturing directly per se since stuff can simply be imported. Rather local content requirements encourage development of a local ecosystem, e.g. rubber -> tires, nickel -> batteries, that feeds into the industrial process. And later lessons learned can branch out into adjacent applied industries.
View of CEO from Vinfast, which of course is biased by self interest.
“Vietnam will remain the supply base for VinFast’s Philippine market.
VinFast Southeast Asia CEO Antonio Zara says the company has sufficient production capacity in Vietnam, making a local assembly plant unnecessary for now.
He added the Philippines should instead focus on developing its niche in the electric vehicle (EV) value chain, particularly in components, rather than competing directly with regional manufacturing hubs like Indonesia and Thailand. | via Money Talks”
Yes, my analysis separately came to this as half of the conclusion as well — target markets others have not taken yet (electric motorcycles and tricycles), while at the same time building component supply chain. The other half of my analysis focused on building domestic manufacturing capability for the domestic market so that the invested peso stays circulating in the Philippines economy. Where the peso goes, and keeping investment when converted from foreign currency to pesos within the domestic economy, is the actual goal.
Consequently, in order to build export value the local supply chain needs to be set up first. A supply chain that can later pivot to building vehicles for export so there’s no effort lost here; that’s how every other exporting country developed as well by taking care of domestic needs first, then initial exports were essentially surplus.
the amazing thing about Joey’s plan is that it addresses skill set and financing in a way that connects what is already there.
It indeed plans to utilize the likes of Toyota, Mitsubishi etc. to be a driver as the ones utilizing the parts.
I am still digesting the idea and trying to find a way to make it understandable at least to us here so we can vet it.
my I dunno part is about the politics to get there – even if the auto industry guys are no nonsense. It seems the head of the Philippine auto industry something in the Bilyonaryo video is all that, not so sure about the one from the automobile parts manufacturer group.
I don’t know either if there is someone of Vince Dizon’s dedication but with not “gasoline in the blood” as the old school German auto industry says but with a “car battery brain” or whatever. Someone who will DRIVE the whole matter and make sure it doesn’t get lost in the usual swamps of BS over there.
When my article on the plan comes out on that on April 26, let’s have Karl and Gian stress test how the plan can be made workable in the difficult PH setting.
My takeaway was the opposite: The Chamber of Automotive Manufacturers of the Philippines (CAMPI) head seemed to use more marketing-speak, while the Philippine Parts Makers Association (PPMA) head correctly pointed to the possible new opportunities for local assembly.
Btw CAMPI is the organizer of the Philippine International Motor Show that is highlighted in the trade show videos. While CAMPI’s name might suggest it has something to do with “manufacturing,” effectively CAMPI acts as an imports facilitator and lobbyist for pro-import policy (not pro-manufacturing policy) as the org has close ties to BOC and policymakers. Out of 29 CAMPI members (which are the auto companies themselves), only Toyota and Mitsubishi have local assembly operations. 5 of those members are Chinese BEV companies. Recently VinFast became a CAMPI member as well.
https://auto.yugatech.com/news/vinfast-ph-campi-memberhsip/
My proposed plan addresses this import-first policy (that actually occurs across the board in the Philippines economy) with regard to the automotive sector. As more Filipinos are looking to buy cars, SUVs, enclosed modern tricycles, and modern jeepneys, the policy should shift to localization for the Philippine market with the aim for eventual export when there is future surplus. The goal is not only to attract FDI, but to keep the money circulating within the Philippines economy where the circulated pesos can generate compounded growth in adjacent industries and services that are attracted to Filipinos who now have money to spend.
To expound upon the recent OFW and BPO discussions, a lot of the monies earned by OFW and BPO directly go into consumption. On one hand the consumption is good as it keeps families afloat where they would be destitute otherwise. On the other hand since almost all of the consumed goods of value are imported the effect is there is a foreign exchange outflow that otherwise could be further driving the Philippines economy. People don’t realize this but the mercantilistic nature of most Philippine oligarchs means they need to source goods for sale in their retail establishments and malls. Where there is a lack of domestically produced goods the oligarchs need to secure import licenses to import the goods, becoming a de facto import licenses monopoly that further strangles development of domestic industries and enterprises. The imported goods are paid for by money which goes out from the Philippines economy when if there were domestic choices the money would stay within the economy to further grow. Over time increasing family budgets and credit services create more demand for goods, which are sourced abroad, increasing the outflow of money that otherwise serve as domestic capital. In the most simplistic explanation, this cycle is why the Philippines economy seems “stuck.”
My plan seeks to rectify this cycle and “unstuck” the cycle by breaking it, redirecting development back towards the Philippines. What the Philippines has to trade for FDI is cheaper labor, English-proficiency, and resources. If post-WTO China could attract massive FDI and foreign investors accepted 49% minority stakes despite paying for 100% of the investment, why can’t the Philippines? What is lacking are the policies that would enable this change.
thanks, good I didn’t write the article that quickly, and will take that one more weekend to assimilate stuff more. Totally new area for me, but it is always a good thing to learn about something completely new – and putting it together to explain it to others is learning it even more deeply.
Businessmen will make money where the system gives them the most incentive to do so. The example of ABS-CBN who were oligopolists (with GMA) pre-pandemic and are now forced to learn how to be globally competitive as they entered the idol business (actually they fumbled at the start, I guess they thought it would be easier, but did manage to silently regroup and still have a steep learning curve) shows that even “oligarchs” are not by nature rent-seekers.
The balance of payments aspect is also important, and of course domestic market first, Japan’s auto market grew on that base as well.
Another area where ABS-CBN and GMA are attempting to diversify is by licensing local movies and teleseryes to streaming platforms such as Netflix — Netflix is the largest video streaming platform in the Philippines as well.
My Netflix feed has recently been flooded with Filipino content… mostly of inane nature and that I do not want to watch. Still interesting to observe as an indicator of how Netflix perceives the Philippines to be a growth platform in SEA. Netflix has a history of commissioning content based on where they think growth will be driven. Cue in the BINI 3-part documentary series financed by Netflix and produced by ABS-CBN that will be released globally:
https://corporate.abs-cbn.com/newsroom/news-releases/2026/4/10/bini-docuseries-makes-its-netflix-global-debut?lang=en
Netflix also has a history of ruthlessly cutting content, often for somewhat successful series (including a few of my favorite shows), when viewership did not attain a certain level of expectations… so we shall see. I see Pinoy socmed celebrating the recent developments, perhaps prematurely, as the Philippines conquering the world. It’s early days yet…
Pivoting back to industrial policy — the preferred route would be to build something of permeance. Making physical things that can then be sold, bought, and traded is a type of permeance; whereas pop culture is ephemeral and probably (usually) doesn’t have staying power. How many pop stars from 50 years ago are still known today? How about pop stars from 25, or even 10 years ago? The Black Eyed Peas and apl.de.ap were big deals in the 2000s-2010s, but GenZ views apl.de.ap as some kind of out of place tito nowadays… Classic auto clubs still tinker on machines built 50, 70, 80 years ago, which still inspire modern designs and elicit awe from auto show goers.
Focusing on domestic-market first was not only a post-war Japanese policy but it was the policy of post-Korean Armistice South Korea, post-war UK and West Germany. One can look at the automobiles being made in those countries at the time and invariably the machines were of simple construction that focused on affordability and mass-production for the local market. This meant the automotive industry focused on motorcycles (including scooters), 3-wheelers adapted from motorcycles, then moving onto sedans (saloons) and station wagons (estate cars) of simple construction and bare amenities. Only much later once the domestic market was satisfied did those countries focus on the export market — past extractive economies, export means exporting surplus. Focusing on domestic market first keeps the bulk of inflows of capital within the domestic economy, and the export phase is when the value-add and domestic saturation is sufficient to support balance of payments going the other way, capturing further capital inflow. So again here the Philippines is often “doing it backwards,” focusing on replicating the end result without having a deep understand and practiced experience of the preceding steps needed to get to the envious end results…
I enjoy Japanese culture a great deal and the Japanese have a talent for re-purposing old ideas and concepts which have emotional pull into a new context suitable for the present time. Take for example the Imperial Regalia of Japan, commonly known as the Three Sacred Treasures (三種の神器, Sanshu no Jingi). The Three Sacred Treasures are a symbol of the legitimacy of the Japanese monarchy in promoting a harmonious co-existence. During the Japanese Economic Miracle the symbology was updated to the “Three Sacred Appliances”. In the 1950s the Three Sacred Appliances were the refrigerator, washing machine, and black-and-white TV set. In the 1960s the Three Sacred Appliances were the color TV, air conditioning, and cars. This update to the “Three Sacred Appliances” was a Japanese government-industry program to create domestic markets for rapid re-industrialization by promoting higher living standards, modernity, and future-looking lifestyles for Japanese workers. Coinciding low-interest loans and installment programs were also promoted so that Japanese could purchase the production output of Japanese industry. But was it really a new idea? Not really, because the Japanese just adapted what had been done before in the US (e.g. mail-order marketing such as by Sears catalog). Is it really surprising then that South Korea followed the same playbook, China is following the same playbook, and Vietnam is now copying the same playbook as well? Why does the Philippines insist on doing things differently because of some “Filipino specialness” and expecting to arrive at the same conclusions? The playbook is out there to be studied, adapted, and executed.
Weird. Jetpack ate the first link that should go following the first paragraph of my reply:
Seasia Stats: Philippines Tops the List with the Largest Netflix Library in the World
the BINI docuseries first came out on TFC last year before their World Tour so releasing it on Netflix is like BINI joining Hybe’s Weverse fan platform – and ABS-CBN discontinuing their own bini.global fan platform – a measure to make sure the new international fans they hope for due to “Binichella” to be properly served with both the narrative and the platform to interact with their new idols. But yes they also work with Netflix on other platforms.
Well, this might be something the Filipino needs as of now, to feel more like mananakop and not “mananap” anymore – a Cebuano word I learned due to BINI. Just like I learned more or less what “lami” means, or the “oh kalami” which BINI fans are now obsessed with sung by the Visayan members in the latest release.
It reminds me of a Samar woman whose family had been very poor in Manila, as in relocation site dwellers (her brother was a sullen former Kabataang Barangay official, yes that organization that became Sangguniang Kabataan) who told me back in the 1990s how Pinoy association parties in German hotels helped them who were working at embassies or in diplomatic missions, mostly cleaning homes, to feel like they were more than just servants.
That need is something more established cultures with deeper foundations when it comes to power may not have. Let us leave it at that.
I took a look back at the Oktoberfest recently and the stats I got from WHERE most of the money spent there comes from were telling: most of it from Germany, most of that from Bavaria, and most of that from Munich – something like 80%, 70% and 60%. So without industry Oktoberfest wouldn’t earn 1B€ a year.
That is analogous to how Japan secured its export industry via internal demand first. Or that even Sokor has 60% saturation rate for its own music.
The American music producers working in PPop who mentioned that said the saturation is only 5% in the Philippines. The ABC stats you gave me show why it is that way, and the stats from BINI and SB19 show the same – 200K max local captive audience. Some now worrying how to pay for the next concert, I saw online.
full ack. A harsher initial draft of my Pilita and BINIchella article said that PPop might become a form of Hunger Games if the Philippines isn’t careful.
I also think that the People vs Food bashing of BINI was by people who know their own precarity or those utilizing the precarity of others to cause a ruckus. Those who know that BINI have succeeded financially but have a life more precarious than Michael Jackson’s father who had a stable job can be provoked.
because an easy high can sometimes be deceptive while the work of building success and releasing the endorphins when it comes can be more painful.
Or maybe because they don’t have the map to success other more established cultures have and have been talked down to too often to accept other maps?
The goal of my article detailing your plan that will come out on April 26 is to offer one possible map, in a way that they feel hey it isn’t that hard.
Building industries isn’t just something “The White Man” or the Japanese, Koreans and Chinese can do should be the implied message.
Your SEA examples (for many Filipinos, “brown people like us”) are excellent in helping overcome that mental block many Filipinos still have.
They have already overcome the mental block that Filipinos can’t be as organized as Koreans when it comes to idol groups, at least performance-wise.. 😉
P.S. I sent a copy of the education map by barangay to Xiao Chua by chat some time ago and told him one can see the reduccion results in it until today..
..but I also said I remembered UP people who had said maps are a colonial thing, and I said why not use tools that are better para sa bayan?
I really think the stubbornness of some Filipinos is they think using tools others developed would prove “inferiority” which is a very limited viewpoint.
P.P.S. I watched the Dirty Linen teleserye of ABS-CBN in full in 2023. It also has a viu version I found out.
Maybe I should have watched the viu version instead as it was shorter and probably had the love team nonsense they inserted in the teleserye cut out haha.
Deleted the original second answer to rewrite it as more of a gist and less “OA” plus leading to a conclusion and next to-dos.
1. I do respect how the members of BINI and SB19 showed grit and perseverance, and kept correcting their errors – even if it was because of little choice.
2. I also respect how ABS-CBN was able – AS A BUSINESS – to be more enterpreneurial than the typical rent-seekers – even if it was due to loss of franchise.
3. Nr. 1) is personal, Nr. 2) is systems, your approach Joey, called Industriepolitik in German, industry politics, is like system landscape architecture
Possibly very few people in the Philippines think in that big a picture – I often haven’t – so maybe that has to be shown.
Because people and businesses with the energy of 1) and 2) – that I have also seen in Romania BTW – can benefit from 3) a better landscape to work in.
Ah I stand corrected on who financed the BINI documentary — ABS-CBN commissioned and financed the documentary series and the Netflix release is part of ABS-CBN’s overall global content strategy per another press release I just read. Diversifying may end up being a smart strategy for ABS-CBN and it looks like they are a major local media partner for Netflix’s “Next on Netflix (country)” global push. In this case the campaign is “Next on Netflix Philippines.”
Oh that would be nice. At least structured hierarchies that reduce friction and give everyone a modicum of respect.
I have seen videos on how stubborn Filipino motorists are who violate rules, and act as if MMDA personnel were in the wrong. My way on da highway.
yes and that is why idol groups are not sustainable in the Filipino market alone. As mentioned already, I have seen social media comments that some fans are wondering where to get the money for tickets now that a lot of stuff is getting expensive there.
Both rich SB19 fans and overseas BINI fans (especially US ones) have sponsored concert tickets for poor students just to help sell out concerts, BTW. These are older fans, those who also for instance collected money for a BINI billboard on the highway to Coachella, and an aerial banner flying above the desert.
A lot of group financing in the Philippines is via sponsoring as concerts and merch aren’t enough, so you have BINI in ads for everything from Jolibee to Rexona, and most notably lifestyle stuff like Belo cosmetics, Urban smiles and Baobab (fancy) eyewear. I think 30 sponsorships for BINI; 20 for SB19. Corporate events as well like the Cloudstaff 2025 year end party where BINI performed are common as well. Or sponsored concerts like Puregold PPop Con.
The personal stories of the originally poorest BINI and SB19 members detail exactly how the precariat lives. I wasn’t aware of how bad it was till then. Probably I didn’t notice before when I lived as part of the B class as it seemed “normal” or something.
My article example of Michael Jackson’s father at least having a stable factory job was intentional as many Filipinos get that reference.
re gumagawa ang Pilipino, I would change that. Gumagawa ng ano? Kalokohan, maraming anak?
I would go for something like “pinapanday natin ang hanapbuhay ng sambayanan”. Deep analogies. But those are stylistic choices.
A bit like our present cutover at work. I am tactical while the one in charge of the whole is strategic. Feels almost like a moon landing at times. 😉
Working over a strategic plan like yours is an interesting side quest for me, more than anything I have ever have done at work.
Once in a discussion between friends I had hypothesized something along the lines of: “If Japan made everyone a samurai in order to flatten societal strata and relational networks, the Philippines should make everyone a datu.”
Then I realized that absent the performance conditionalities of the pre-Spanish datu system, many would just want to be a datu over everyone else. Which we can sort of see played out when a bank teller power trips over a bank customer, or when boys maoy (Cebuano for “running amok,” “momentary insanity,” or simply “acting out” but with deeper meaning to murderous berserker rage of a warrior) to prove they are more mighty than the other.
I also took a deep look into the closest parallel cultures in Indonesia and Malaysia whereupon I came to the conclusion that the reinterpretation there was somewhat incomplete as well. Though Indonesia especially tried to reimagine the relational network but it got stuck somewhere during Suharto-era cronyism, while Malaysia’s reimagining has a symbiosis of Malay political access and Chinese-Malaysian capital.
So I’m not quite sure how to reinterpret Philippine culture in a way that would make the culture suitable for modern success. Filipinos abroad who become successful or prominent are adopting the culture of the place they migrated to, not the other way around. Maybe one day a Filipino(s) will figure it out.
A lot of times people want to go to these events perceived as “great” or “rich” just to post a selfie as a form of clout chasing on socmed. When I was broke I certainly had my priorities elsewhere…
I have reservations about whether this type of bulk ticket buying as a form of “support” and “dedication” are helpful to the industry’s growth in the long run. I also heard locally about this, and well, the ones who are into this stuff are usually the weirdos who have excessive “Pinoy Pride” with the plastered 8-rayed suns all over their cars and tattooed prominently on their person. A Philippine habit I think might be unhelpful is the overenthusiasm at times to aggressively push stuff onto others. Fandoms also creep me out…
A factory job in the 1960s was actually just enough to support a family, a house mortgage, and a car, on a single income. Michael Jackson’s poverty had more to do with him being from a large family (10 children). By the time Michael Jackson debuted the Jackson Five were already famous and had regular gigs, so the financial situation was better. The better lesson to be applied would probably be that Joe Jackson had a stable job, however meagerly the salary was spread across his children, and that enabled the Jackson children to pursue musical careers. And also the hard work they put into their careers as well. Yes I am aware that the BINI and SB19 members put a lot of work into their profession as well, but perhaps this can better be explained to fans since a lot of masa seem to think they can go from zero to hero in an instant with no hard work before or in between.
Yeah your suggestion works better. Tagalog and Cebuano both have deeply poetic heritage. Unfortunately my construction is rudimentary like a child lol.
I have been very fortunate to have met mentors who identified potential early on and pushed me to keep moving forward even when I was comfortably complacent. Back then I was quite intimidated sitting across from Designers and Architects, but well, now I am one of the club also somehow haha.
I would say that whether someone is a “soldier,” a “captain,” or a “general,” everyone has a role to play. And it is the job of “generals” to think about how the different moving pieces on the map fit together while the “captains” formulate a plan based on the strategic vision. I chose not to make the plan too granular and stuck with broad objectives mostly and fine focus where something was critical (like the testing center). When stuff gets too mired in minutiae like many Philippine laws, IRRs, and even the *gasp* Constitution are it becomes hard to have flexibility in choosing the path in order to get to the goal, which is static.
in my youth, they had a Filipino flag near their license plate, though that might be because German regulations what you are allowed to put on your car are stricter. Of course they were often with tinikling dancers, a big wooden spoon and fork and/or The Last Supper in their living rooms.
Their groups might have had names similar to “Bayanihan”, “Barangay” or “Kapit-Bahay” – or “Mayon” or “Jesus is Love”.
I wonder if there will be a learning curve about what works and what doesn’t, of the main character syndrome will stay.
There are degrees of engagement similar to the Samar woman who told me the Pinoy association parties in nice clothing and in hotels gave them some dignity, something similar to what the movie https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunday_Beauty_Queen describes, to the for me old hat of in-group rivalries.
I mean there even was infighting between the small Pink groups here in Europe and Germany. The old barangays fighting mindset and calls for unity we are all Filipinos or all Pink or all fans of X – there also have been fights inside BINI and SB19 fandoms on social media that weirded me out.
That the USA official fandom had to tell BINI fans NOT to stalk them, find out their flight numbers, or that the Dubai fandom had to tell them NOT to post sightings in real time or give info about their hotels, and that BINI had a limo service to NOT exit via gate in Dubai all show how weird it can get.
the unofficial documentary about SB19 by the Pinoy Pride influencer Cashual Chuck or the (now) Netflix documentary about BINI do explain the hard work.
Of course one can cherry pick the predestination aspect of Cashual Chuck’s “Kings” episode or the title of BINI’s Chapter One documentary: “Born to Win”.
People can choose not to see what Pacquiao or Eala did to get that far or just see them as miraculously appearing on the horizon.
Of course both the BINI and SB19 narratives have the Filipino DNA in them, the ABS docu has the MMK DNA of struggling women breadwinners the poor relate to.
One can also choose to brush over the 1000x SB19 practiced Go Up choreo or the Korean training BINI got at the start, all in the respective docus.
I get that as the German military Auftragstaktik (capture that hill, how one does it is up to the officer) is also part of German corporate culture. I would freak out Filipino bosses as an employee and Filipino employees as a boss, total cultural mismatch.
Not having auto industry experience in real life means I try to get a feel with how stuff gets done. I am in a way still the kid who likes to look at how construction sites progress, or documentaries about different kinds of factories, or factory tours of customers when I was a consultant.
Well maybe my typing this stuff will make my Youtube algorithm show me documentaries on car supply chains. Abracadabra! Less PPop please.
Just got back from Costco (a warehouse club store) with a side of pork belly. While I was there I ran into a person talking very loudly on videocall with the speakerphone turned to the maximum. He was wearing the below t-shirt with a MAGA hat. I’m guessing he is a more recent immigrant, though young Fil-Ams I grew up with also usually had a “Pinoy Pride” phase. There are more productive ways to show pride in one’s identity than the performative methods.
https://www.etsy.com/listing/1037748126/bayanihan-filipino-flag-tshirt
People may elect/choose leaders but the feedback loop also goes the other way with leaders showing by example, good or bad. When people support something they will likely conform to the group. So whether the leadership is in the music industry or by political means, supporters will go where the leadership cues point to.
I have a funny but absurdist example of this behavior from my recent visit. If you recall my story about the tambay titos who think they are “datus” and “kings” in a “Maharlika Kingdom” that is quite common among rural masa. Well apparently the “maharlika hall” they were building is now half-completed because multiple guys demanded to be “paramount king,” and none accepted to be “auxillary king.” Like so:
https://www.facebook.com/photo/?fbid=3923063814662735&set=pcb.3923064354662681
I thought about this more and I wonder how much of the overseas fandom consists of people who were born/raised overseas or consists of recent immigrants who are still OA. This behavior might seem “normal” in the Philippines and pinoy socmed but it is definitely not normal in the US.
Auftragstaktik which was a Prussian adaptation of the Napoleonic corps command structure was adopted by the US in WWII as Mission Command, then insitutionalized across NATO in the 1970s. Recently the Ukranians have adopted Mission Command as well which revolutionized their military by giving agency to senior enlisted and junior officers as opposed to the massed troops en bloc tactics of the Russians which rely on top-down control. Auftragstaktik/Mission Command is much more flexible in getting results, provided there is a strategic plan to tie together the tactical successes.
I don’t think it is required to have granular understanding of everything; I certainly did not need to have that by the time I was a PM and EA. Subject Matter Experts (SMEs) are the ones who have niche knowledge and provide the advice necessary to make decisions.
My YouTube feed got flooded with Pinoy stuff again. A quick clearing fixes that.
https://www.youtube.com/feed/history
History -> Clear all watch history
or if you prefer, Pause watch history or use Manage all history to remove selected videos from the watch history.
my impression is that A’tin (SB19 fandom) is older and more organized – in fact a Pantayong Pananaw professor, Dr. Atoy Navarro, is in the leadership of A’tin Thailand – of course the group is 3 years older than BINI that makes a difference.
Blooms (BINI fandom) seem to be consolidating some degree of coordination and control with ABS-CBN management recently, as the latter noticed some degree of it was needed. The notice from Team Bloom USA I saw mentioned agreement with management.
All that reminds me of how the Philippine Embassy and overseas associations coordinated for example during Cory’s state visit in West Germany, 1989 – even as I recall a situation where it was German cops who made way for Cory and entourage leaving Aachen cathedral.
And situations where ushers from Pinoy associations had Filipinas refusing to show their ID to them at the Charlemagne hall of Aachen.
Maybe I should ask Xiao Chua for a copy of his doctorate about Black Nazarene devotees to understand all that more.
Been through the specialist’s learning curve of wanting to know as much as I could – which doesn’t work after a while – to finding the right balance of overview and detail I need to communicate to the next level.
nah, still having too much fun.. 😉
..though I am rigorously staying out most social media anyhow to not get too much noise from the national village.
Perhaps it is a consequence of my withdrawal from social media in the early 2010s that I have not experienced directly the toxic developments since then; early 2010s social media seemed quite toxic enough to me at that time.
I am both curious and extremely turned off by online toxic subcultures that in the last decade has leaked into real life when people are increasingly unable to discern virtual reality from reality and fantasy. A lot of these TV drama and idol group fandoms can easily cross from passionate enthusiasm formed in online disinhibition into an intense entitlement that creates harassment of deviating views, gatekeeping, and tribalism that further devolves into in-group tribalism.
Devotion to DDS, MAGA, anarchism and communism that have co-opted the label “progressivism” display a lot of these markers as well. Invariably the devotion is not to an idea or a piece of work, but a parasocial idolization to the person or group that exceeds normality and becomes a fan’s identity that overrides everything else. Is it escapism or the masking of insecurities, or is it a form of lesser mental illness? Whatever it is these online fandoms really creep me out and goes well beyond older fan groups back in the mailed postcard days. In the postcard and fan letter days there were some abnormally obsessed fans that became stalkers or worse, but I’d gander that those people were outliers compared to what happens now shaped by online subculture.
Another thing is such intense fandoms seem to tend towards forming a diehard core but does not have mass appeal. An indicator of sustained growth of a person, group, or idea is the organic growth outwards. Diehards bulk buying tickets and acting as very aggressive non-official agents doesn’t seem that organic to me and feels like something that at best willed into existence and at worst a form of forcing. Curiously the domestic K-Pop fandom is intense at times but it’s the overseas non-ethnic Korean K-Pop fandom that usually becomes toxic. Is P-Pop following the same pattern except with the overseas fandom consisting of recent Filipino migrants?
I wonder how German enterprises work now. In the American, Japanese and South Korean enterprises I worked for, specialists were expected to know their specialization in addition to knowing everything below that supported their niche. For that reason I passed through a number of specializations before I gained a designer or architect position.
there is probably an entire spectrum, with those called akgae and sasaeng fans in KPop as seriously crazy people.
An extreme (boomer) Michael Jackson fan I knew whose husband always rolled his eyes when she talked about Michael was limited by reality.
even the fans who regularly lay down Michael pictures at the foot of the Munich Orlando di Lasso statue have to walk the talk doing it.
That the OPM subreddit already has EXPLICITLY banned BINI and SB19 fan content in its rules is a warning sign for PPop.
those BINI fans who made their own area on Coachella grounds are probably more like soccer ultras, a bit intense.
The flags in the rows behind BTW are one per BINI member and I think behind the cars are actual tents.
yes I actually mastered the one thing I mainly do now (including supporting stuff, bottom-up actually) before branching out and taking care of other stuff where I mostly coordinate(d) but I did not go through the normal German corporate career path, long story.
So it is only “My Way” (I planned each chartered course, each careful step..) on my resume, the reality (even if my resume IS true, of course) is more “That’s Life” (that’s what all the people say, riding high in April, shot down in May, but I’m gonna change that tune, when I’m back on top, back on top in June) – but I did figure out a way, managed to turn what started as diskarte into a plan.
I haven’t been to Coachella for years; the last time I went was in the late 2000s (I attended the first Coachella in 1999) when one still had to hike across multiple miles just to get to the venue. It’s very commercialized nowadays (and is owned by a MAGA billionaire btw).
From what I hear from the younger kids fans flying flags are usually Mexican, Salvadoran, Venezuelan and so on, when their artists are in the lineup. There are hardly any American flags or fan group flags for Western artists. I guess when one is one of the headliners there is no need for being OA… sort of like when someone is rich, others who are rich just know and those who don’t know, well, it doesn’t matter.
I am very wary of intense fan groups though, especially if they are militant in nature. MAGA very much out of the mainstreaming of an online subculture that precipitated Gamergate. DDS had origins in Jejemon subculture. The current pro-Hamas, pro-Iran discourse of the younger generation grew out of “online communism,” with people who insist on land acknowledgements and acknowledging every single interest group ultimately forget shared humanity and commonality. It feels unhealthy to have one’s life revolve solely around externalities that do not affect one’s person.
the graphic below was a comment to BINI Aiah Arceta from Mactan by a Fil-Canadian fan, and I guess the sentiment is valid. Aiah shared it on her Instagram.
the sense of not being “enough” is what finally drives Pinoy Pride and seeing fellow Filipinos succeed CAN ideally help with self-esteem and getting into the spirit to do more with one’s own life.
I do get how idols can inspire young people, for instance how some young men admire and try to emulate Kobe Bryant’s resolve. Fat old men drinking beer and admiring soccer teams like you at times have here in Germany are another matter altogether.
Pinoy Titos chasing clout as super-Filipinos might be similar to the the latter, the Fil-Canadian quoted above might be more like the former.
P.S. For instance my career improved ever since I wrote here, because I got the feeling that I was contributing at a higher level than the job I actually was in. That kind of spilled over into more confidence on the job. Though I have reduced writing here recently as I feel that it won’t change the reality of my job being, well, not a national policy maker, and we don’t have that many readers either. Though as already mentioned, the EV article will be out on April 26th.
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I look at this comment differently in two ways: 1.) The Fil-Canadian (I’m assuming a guy here) clearly had a hard time assimilating and appears to have a “chip on his shoulder” 2.) BINI Aiah is viewing the comment as a validation from the Philippine-centered side, in possibly an unhealthy way that actually perpetuates Filipino (as in from Philippines) feelings of inferiority. I will briefly explain:
The Fil-Canadian (guy) clearly is of either GenX or elder Millennial generation, because I had the “same” experiences growing up in the 1980s. I recall as a kid in elementary school I also had packed lunches of rice, upo, sayote, ampalaya, tortang talong, daing (bulad). It was “smelly” for a Western nose. I got made fun of. The difference is probably, I punched the kids who made fun of me, and never got fun of again 🙂 Mexican-American, Chinese-American, and Vietnamese-American kids also ate their ethnic food for lunch in White-majority schools, yet most shrugged off teasing. Some others banded together for “protection,” which later became the prominent Asian street gangs of my era. Filipino-Americans were the only ones who sought validation from the White kids and seemed hurt when they weren’t “accepted as Whites.” Later those kids would seek validation from Mexicans, Chinese, Vietnamese, and so on. The classmate I first went with to the Philippines “felt Vietnamese” for years, while amusingly I was interested in learning more about the Philippines. Those kids usually ended up being the Super-Pinoy Titos™ later. The Fil-Am girls I grew up usually adjusted well, as the fairer sex usually do. Younger Millennials and GenX are far more accepting and curious about sharing foods from other cultures so the teasing ceased being a problem in less than 20 years, probably less than 15 years. Unlike when I was in elementary school until graduating senior high school where in a homeroom class of 30 there were maybe a handful of Asians and a handful of Latinos, unless if a kid is in a very rural area, schools are quite diverse nowadays.
Aside from the creepiness of a male fan who is probably in his 40s or 50s, likely divorced and unhappy never having come to grips with how his identity relates to the society surrounding him, “glazing” a much younger BINI Aiah (who is admittedly gorgeous)… Filipinos in the Philippines who highlight these types of validations are not doing something helpful. This sort of “validation” actually perpetuates the inferiority complex on both sides (in the Philippines and abroad). I find that Filipinos are really quick to misunderstand and glom onto validations like these, and I daresay even actively seek such validations as a momentary and fleeting ego-boost that ultimately is not helpful since like a drug the feeling quickly needs to be replaced with further and stronger validation.
In any case this anecdote adds to my sense that P-Pop won’t break out of the unassimilated, unintegrated overseas Filipino community. The type who blithely walks around crowded public spaces carrying on a video call back home with maximum speakerphone volume while talking loudly, not giving a care about the pained annoyance of people around them as their shopping cart blocks the entire aisle. K-Pop exploded in popularity because K-Pop figured out a way to have an internationalist and universal message, which was K-Pop’s main innovation from the niche J-Pop that first generation K-Pop trained under. Yes, K-Pop is highly structured and only now in the fifth generation has more authentic music has come out (as opposed to the “practiced authenticity” of preceeding generations of K-Pop), but K-Pop has always studied the target audience in detail, and they chose a non-Korean audience as that audience. I question which main audience P-Pop is really going for…
Knowing quite a few of guys who are like the quoted Fil-Canadian, most likely he is a Super-Pinoy chasing clout… From feelings of inferiority (which were imposed by the self more than imposed by externality), they usually over-compensate by becoming Super-Pinoys when they feel “rejected” by surrounding society. Even though no one really rejected them to begin with; they had demanded unrealistic, personalized validation from society which is commonly given to boys in the Philippines but does not happen abroad. So in a sense, and consciously or not, they expected Philippines treatment from non-Filipinos when they do not live in the Philippines.
My issue with the tendency towards following idols, athletes, actors or whatever similar figure for inspiration, is those roles require exceptional talent as a prerequisite (in addition to hard work). Most people simply are not born with those specific talents and thus could never achieve what they idolized in their youth… then grow up to be repressed, angry, and unsatisfied people. Mostly that affects men.
But almost all people can be trained to become better at things that do not explicitly require specific talent, which also happens to be the things that collectively raise a society into success…
If a young person displays talent in an area, such as singing and performing, of course they can be encouraged to become a singer or actor. If the child was average in all things yet was told he is the most handsome, smartest, more capable boy, when reality hits once his mother and lola can’t dote on him anymore, well, that’s a disservice to the child’s formation. They’d end up like that Fil-Canadian, the “type” that I know too many of. Heck, my high school friend even somehow graduated Medicinae Doctor with the support of his doctor parents, after being rejected from US med schools and going to the Caribbean, yet his overconfidence caused him to fail the Medical Board exam more than a half-dozen times before he gave up. He is not able to practice as a medical doctor despite having the degree. He’s now a Super-Pinoy. His ate (who is a few months older than me, and I had a big crush on when we were teens) who was accused of being a “loose girl” who partied to much and no one in the family had big hopes for (nor was there much effort invested into her), ironically became adjusted and is now a practicing MD.
That is my goal for my analysis and suggestions as well. To create a new mode of thinking towards the possible that is much better than now, as opposed to the thinking of waiting to catch a lucky break or to get help like it happens in the Philippines within the masa (and arguably ABs as well). I don’t think any American factory worker ever wanted to work in a factory, but the jobs were fairly compensated, allowed for a dignified life, built community and comraderie among fellow union members, and so on. Crucially those union factory jobs allowed families to let their children achieve a fuller potential now that the economic situation had been improved.
Personally, I think it’s a mistake for economic planners to look at top-line numbers or for research professors to research books rather than their subject directly (like meeting/interviewing people). The DEs are not that bobo despite many being formally uneducated. They vote for dynasties because that’s the best choice they can make at the present time, which ended up causing decades of stagnancy since the political arena has not changed much. Give them a better choice and it is likely they will shift over. It is actually those who are relatively comfortable (how many DDS influencers or NPA leaders are actually middle class or rich?) who are the most obstinate in their views and incalcitrant in changing…
Correction:
Younger Millennials and GenX are far more accepting and curious about sharing foods
->
Younger Millennials and GenZ are far more accepting and curious about sharing foods
thanks for that enlightening perspective. My comments:
– so the dynamics of how foreigners were treated over the generations wasn’t much different from over here
– I really assumed based on the tone that the comment was by a woman in her early 20s – from a middle-aged man it is cringe
– the dynamics of the PPop fandoms remind me more and more of Filipino overseas association dynamics I am sick and tired of
– Filipino overseas groups often tend to USE foreigners for something, that same dynamic might keep foreigners in PPop fandoms few
– I did NOT watch ASAP Milano in 2023 or go to the BINI concert in London last year as I dislike the dynamics of majority Pinoy groups
one just has to take one look at most of the Philippine Senate to see the result.
in fact a man who is dutiful and honest can be the butt of jokes in such a society, just see how PNoy was once mocked.
I remember a Turkish origin accounting head in a German steel company (supplier of steel for doors to a major German carmaker BTW) who was the son of a factory worker, and how older steel workers who knew his father greeted him (always in a suit, shiny shoes and perfectly combed hair) in the canteen.
I see this a different way: perhaps the problem is because the politicians on “our side” are simply bad communicators even if they have policies built with good intentions.
Which goes back to my observation about a divided society, a divided country — the “Two Philippines.”
On the pro-democracy, pro-good goverance side, politicians speak to other ABs in a way I imagine the ilustrados preferred to speak with other ilustrados. They are not speaking with DEs, or even Cs, despite them having the very best of intentions.
So as a Class D tricycle driver putters along on his route listening to the local radyo station, he worries if he can afford petrol and oil much less the fact that he has been putting off the new paint job to abate the rust marching across the tricycle’s frame. The tricycle driver has no time to break down complicated plans, much less consider the plan when he has other things to worry about.
Or the Class E subsistence farmer who up until now has failed to maintain gainful employment in the city and slunk back to the province with his tail between his legs full of feelings of shame, his middle-aged bones starting to feel tired from hard daily work under the sun, with 4 kids to feed and a with an earful of reklamo about “what’s the ulam” from his bungangera of a wife. The subsistence farmer too has no time to even fathom complicated things.
So they gravitate towards politicians and leaders who can tell them “everything is so simple,” “it’s those others’ fault,” “it’s because of colonialism,” and so on.
An enabling law is different from a law forbidding something. People understand proscriptions, which are usually a short “thou shalt not …” Prescriptive commands are much harder to understand and so are prescriptive laws, which enabling laws belong to. A manufacturing strategy so codified is an example of an enabling law.
The complications of local content requirement formulas and schedules, or how much electricity to allocate and where, and how the government should approach G2G and G2B relationships are minutiae that while important, do not mean much to the average Filipino.
The job of an effective politician is to be able to convey necessary yet complicated ideas into simplified, specific examples which inspire and build enthusiasm. We who are educated and operate at a higher trained intellectualism often forget all this.
And another note that illustrates the Philippines is working on building infrastructure. Long way to go, yes. But not empty of effort.
https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/2207819/manila-waters-upper-wawa-dam-project-shortlisted-for-gwa-project-of-the-year#
Joey – I run @floorcharts on X and Floorcharts.com. Love to drop you a line and just hear more about your experience!
@FloorCharts Thank you for your interest but I’ll be frank that aside from serving as a congressional page for a summer in high school (for former GOP Rep. Ed Royce) and working for former CA GOP Party Chairman Shawn Steel (the husband of former GOP Rep. Michelle Steel) during the first half of his tenure as chairman, I’m afraid I wouldn’t be that helpful. As you may know Senate pages and the now-defunct Congressional pages are essentially go-for (IIRC messenger boys, per the old parlance at the start of the programs in the late 1820s) and do not have any official duties. My youth work with the CA GOP was more political in nature, though I also had a chance to watch how political processes in our government work. Later I decided that going into politics was just not for me (I also switched parties). These experiences were also more than 25 years ago. Again my apologies I won’t be of much help here, but I took a look at your work and it is very commendable. I followed you on Bluesky.
somewhat OT: https://x.com/bnstim/status/2040640645988303355 from Tim Hormigos:
Just terrible. I’m reminded of the rubber tappers I often bump into in Mindanao who collect laksas and store it in smelly tubs, not knowing any better so they sell the goma to middlemen because they don’t have a truck that can traverse unreliable roads. Then their children who don’t see any future so they “start families” at a young age, some as young as 16, 14. Imagine the unbelievable human capital that can be tapped instead if proper infrastructure is built and manufacturing jobs brought to those areas. Within 4 years SHS students can be prepared for a vocation in the local manufacturing plant. Their future families now having more economic mobility.
Even a certain degree of improved food logistics would help in places like that. I asked ChatGPT about the history of food logistics in Bavaria and this is what I got:
I wonder if these people will still vote Inday Sara after Duterte didn’t give them the Mindanao Railway he promised. A railway with combined passenger and freight capabilities would indeed be useful. Or Joe’s idea of a major highway across Mindanao which of course should have access roads to everywhere.
So one can either have grain or other depots and storage space close to train stations like Baywa has in Bavaria, or I guess they have something similar close to highways in the Midwest where Joe comes from. Of course once you have proper roads it gets easier to build factories. Maybe even factory towns which nowadays no longer have to look as ugly as Wolfsburg (Volkswagen town) the old US Rust Belt or Warsaw pact factory towns but have schools and all.
P.S. That Munich, Augsburg, and Nuremberg are mentioned as railway junctions for agriculture in the ChatGPT transcript is interesting because the company MAN – Maschinenfabrik Augsburg Nürnberg, the truck and bus maker, has major locations at those nodes.
P.P.S. I did some other research some weeks ago and yes Chicago was the grand template for food logistics.
Infrastructure is sorely lacking outside of Metro Manila and more generally Calabarzon. Even on Cebu (Province) it takes hours to get from southern or northern Cebu to Cebu City. On the Cebu City inset of the attached graphic the areas that have grade school or less educational attainment is actually within walking distance of the glitziest areas of Cebu City… from Ayala Center in Barangay Mabolo to Barangay Lahug it only takes 40 minutes of leisurely walking, not that Filipinos like to walk anyway lol. In Mindanao infrastructure is worse.
I do think increased infrastructure would go a long way in garnering political support. One must remember that DDS are sort of like MAGA. They are mad about something yet can’t quite put their finger on what that something is. A lot of their anger is an accumulation of years of resentment, being ignored, not being helped to make their lives better. In the absence of being unable to identify exactly what it is they are missing, of course they would gravitate towards a charlatan like Duterte who promises to punish their perceived enemies, the elites who look down on them, and punish those enemies for something. Concrete life improvements that can be seen and touched is a lot more powerful than nebulous rage though. If people can see that the government is doing something good for them and their community, people would start to be converted into supporters. Absent of that, why not just take the bag of relief goods and the vote bribes? At least someone is “taking care of them” …
There is my old article about who really knows the Philippines based on a map of the provinces Leni Robredo has been to (all actually) and how many most have been. Of course I grew up in the era when almost nobody went to provinces they were not somehow connected to by family or otherwise and there barely was news from “the provinces” unlike today and Mindanao was almost like the Terra Incognita on old maps. But it is weird that even today there are Manila liberals who wonder why mocking Sara Duterte’s accent has created a backlash. Of course it has, the times when Manila officials mocked Visayans coming there for their accents rudely and openly isn’t too long ago, or the times when Yoyoy Villame decided to become a comedian not a singer because people in Manila laughed every time he just started singing. I recall a Pinoy band in Germany with an excellent Visayan bassist. His (Tagalog) fellow band members mocked his BMW as his carabao, just like that. And of course Heydarian’s tone-deaf comment about “Sub-Saharan Mindanao” (and Mindanao reactions) showed how divided the Philippines still is.
My best friend (who resides in HK) passed by Los Angeles a few weeks back on a business trip so we had a catching up session. Mostly it ends up being an open ended kwentohan. I was on a subject reminiscing about the old verdant lands of Tarlac and Pampanga full of veggies, sugarcane, corn and rice when she suddenly interjected that most of the girls in the nightclubs her father managed in HK were Kapampangan. With an implication that the girls were prostitutes (well they were doing double-duty I guess), and that’s how she sees most Kapampangan young women. I had to remind her that that stereotype is old news already and besides it might offend Kapampangans even if it was sort of true back in the 1990s and 2000s. She’s highly educated (Ateneo) and quite open minded, but don’t we all have a proclivity to forming and holding bias?
Mostly bias and assumptions occur when people have not encountered new things or new people. What’s strange and unknown can be scary. Having experience does help with mutual understanding (and not the type of MU GenZ pinoys talk about lol) and trust.
The urban conyos and pasosyal will probably never meet a poor person who lives in an informal settlement down the street from them, much less a poor jobless person in Mindanao would meet someone from a big city. I dunno, I do think that another transformative program the Philippines can do is to create a civilian corps, sort of like a Peace Corps, but to do good works inside the Philippines. It would be paid and become an outlet for young people still in college or recently graduated. It would help further discourse among Filipinos and break down barriers. When people are afraid of the unknown people tend to create caricatures, or worse, create monsters…
Not directly related, but rather shocking to me. From Gemini citing a recent report: “The Philippines is experiencing a rapid decline in birth rates, reaching a record-low Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of 1.7 children per woman in 2025–2026, dropping below the 2.1 replacement level. This downward trend is driven by increased contraceptive use, changing family preferences, and improved access to family planning.”
The marrying age nowadays is into the mid thirties. In the 90s that was unimaginable.
Ah, huge factor. Thanks. It suggests the teen pregnancies that Joey cites are retreating (provinces and poor kids) and are not what they were 20 years ago.
Yes I’m referring to poorer folks. Even the rural and provincial Filipinos though are having less kids overall, but it isn’t uncommon to “start a family” a a young age, which is a euphemism for “unplanned teen pregnancy.” Perhaps a few generations ago there would be 4-5 unplanned kids. Now it’s perhaps 1-3 among provincials. Overall not great since the demographic sweet spot might pass by without leveraging a young working population properly. Maybe Marcos Jr. will be blamed for it but Marcos Jr. is not the cause. But I hope with legislation such as I proposed something productive can be done.
Factchecking my comment.
Here’s a fact‑checked summary of the situation in the Philippines regarding fertility rates, marriage age, and having children:
✅ 1. Fertility Rate in the Philippines Is Falling
The total fertility rate (TFR) — the average number of children a woman is expected to have in her lifetime — has been declining for decades.
Recent data (2023–2025 period) shows a **record‑low fertility rate of about 1.7 children per woman, well below the replacement level of ~2.1 needed to keep the population stable without migration.
✅ 2. Age at First Marriage Is Increasing
Filipinos are marrying later than in the past.
According to the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA), the median age at first marriage is around 28–30 years old.
For context, earlier decades had younger marriage ages (early‑to‑mid‑20s), but this has risen with social and economic changes.
✅ 3. Age at First Childbirth Is Also Delaying
In general, median age at first birth has historically been around the early‑to‑mid‑20s in past DHS data (e.g., mid‑20s based on earlier surveys).
With later marriages and other socioeconomic factors (education, careers, costs), many women delay childbearing relative to earlier generations — though official recent figures specific to “average age at first birth” may vary by source.
✔ 4. Some People Are Choosing to Have Few or No Children
The fertility decline reflects both smaller desired family size and actual behavior: a large share of women say they want no more children.
Delayed marriage and delayed childbearing contribute to fewer lifetime births simply because there is less biological time to have multiple children.
❓ 5. Childless Adults (by Choice or Delay) — Limited Data
There is no strong, recent national statistic saying what share of Filipinos are childless long‑term because of delayed marriage or choice. However:
Delays in marriage and childbirth are real and tend to reduce total fertility.
Anecdotal social commentary (e.g., on social media) reflects that many people in their 30s are still without children, but that is not an official survey statistic.
Summary
Statement True? Source Evidence
PH fertility rate is low and falling ✅ Yes PSA data shows ~1.7 TFR
Filipinos are marrying late ✅ Yes PSA median age ~28–30
People are having children later 🟡 Likely Social trends + some data on first birth age
Many adults will stay without children ❓ Not yet proven No strong national data on permanent childlessness
—
Bottom line: It is accurate that the Philippines has a low and declining fertility rate and that many people are marrying later (late 20s). These changes, along with preferences for smaller families and socioeconomic factors, contribute to many adults having fewer children — and potentially delaying or foregoing parenthood — but precise figures on the proportion of people permanently childless are not yet established in official surveys.
There was a comment here from a visotor that I missed to factor in overpopulation, maybe this stat is the answer.
I haven’t looked at numbers that closely on this subject but around Millennials and definitely for GenZ, urban Filipinos seem to be putting off marriage for differing reasons. For Millennials it seemed to be economic uncertainty. For GenZ they seem to be afraid of forming relationships from all the scare stories they consume on social media. I was shocked about the long lists of “ideal” traits GenZ wanted in a mate.