A fragile world teathers in volatility: will there be a World War III?
[Photo source: thesun.co.uk]
by Popoy Del R. Cartanio
Will there be a World War III?
Let readers imagine that opinions not based on research or results of scientific experiments on what is happening in our world today are really believable, of great value and are good bases for predicting events likely to happen in the coming days. Put another way, what media in terms of news and opinions dished out everyday to readers and watchers are good reasons for people everywhere to worry that a big world war could explode any moment. Moreover, it is another angle by which doomsayers or war mongers can make mountains out of molehills and which also die hard Peaceniks can down play as false alarms. This first paragraph might already be overtaken by catastrophic events even before it gets posted. Knock on wood, eh?
In Tagalog mas madali at maigsing sabihin na yung sinasabi sa media na nangyayari sa kapaligiran ay tunay na nagbabadya na bukas makalawa maaring magkagiyera. Sa mga may panahon, nagbabasa, nakikinig, nanunood, nagiisip at sumusubaybay sa internet, mga taong interesado sa nangyayari sa kanyang malawakan kapaligiran ay mayroon sapat na dahilan matakot .
Nakakakilabot isipin pag nakagiyera, nandiyan ang bomba “nuclear” at saka “chemical”. At marami pang makabagong sandata ng pagpatay.
Tignan lang ang mga higanteng bansa na siyang masasangkot sa giyera: Estados Unidos (USA), Great Britain, Canada, Japan, South Korea, Australia, France, Israel; at saka Russia, China, North Korea, Iran, Syria. Puede rin tignan ang mga grupo na maaring magkaisa ang mga miembrong sumali sa giyera tulad ng European Community, ASEAN, Islamic Conference, Organization of American States, at iba pa. Matagal na meron din bumanggit sa media na ang pangatlong pandaigdig na digmaan (WW III) ang siyang gugunaw sa mundo kung magkakaroon ng malawakang paggamit ng bomba nyukliyar, mas nakahihindik bomba kemikal. .
Pero sa magkabilang panig o hanay na mga bansang nagaaway, pag ginamit ng liderato ang sentido kumon para sa makataong pananaw at takot sa hindi maubos maisip na dami ng mamatay sa buong mundo, HINDI puputok baka maipagpaliban pa ang “Third World War.”
To say it in English, if previous world wars could give any indication of a coming “holocaust” war, the signs are there for pundits to see which started after WW II in 1945. After 72 long years, Russia broke from the free world and became China’s bosom buddy. Germany was divided into East and West, Korea and Vietnam into North and South; followed by the Cold War. There was then the Korean War in the 50s. There was also the break up and breakdown of the USSR (Union of Soviet Socialist Republics). Likewise the demolition of the Berlin Wall. Followed by Vietnam, the Israeli continuing war, then Afghanistan, then Syria, Al Qaida, and ISIS insurgency.
In each and every country those were big chunks of national history. However, in the macro world view those were NOT signs of a peaceful WORLD. Those were, in small bundles, characteristics of socio-economic struggle and indications of political instability. All of which undermine progress and work against harmony in the society of nations. Furthermore the events of recent memory are portentous of large scale war. Without delving into details . . . but more like an invitation to dig deeper into the meaning of events and the consequent changes those events had triggered . . . read and cogitate.
ONE : At least in USA and the Philippines–maybe even in Great Britain– political correctness was put on the dock and was found wanting. Political correctness was found anachronous; its usefulness and potency had expired and that called for a full scale make over. Presidential candidates Donald J. Trump of the USA and Rodrigo R. Duterte of the Philippines were the two leading challengers who made mince meat of political correctness with almost victorious belligerence.
To Presidents Trump and Duterte, it could be a new ethos of governance; not a blast but a break from the past of wholesome, placating, respectful, culture-based, jurisprudent and traditionally moral kind of governance. On a scale of 10 for mild to extreme non-dictatorial societal change, it is an unheard of 8 or 9. It is doubtless considered an INSANE adventure to apostles and practitioners of political correctness who believe such recklessness could emasculate ruling elite and could lead to unheard of dire consequences.
Ah yes, about Great Britain or UK. On political correctness, it must be admitted, it’s a bit of a stretch. It was NOT encouraged or brought about by government or its leaders. It was a significant segment of the population who voted for BREXIT. It’s like a contextual repudiation of causes blamed for bad results, for bad effects on a large number of the common citizens. It was an affront to the noble purpose of a conglomerate that ensures for members mutually beneficial relationship. Belonging to the EC (European Community) was not it at all, according to BREXIT. In fine, many Britons who voted for exit believed by experience that UK membership to EC was not good for them at all.
Attempts at correcting political correctness could snowball not only in Europe and North America. After the elections in the Netherlands, watch the coming elections in France. Other smaller countries could follow suit. China and Russia seemed successful in toppling their ideological correctness. China’s Cultural Revolution had a stealthy make-over to morph into mutant capitalism. USSR disintegrated; Russia’s Gorbachevian perestroika and glasnost made Russia what it is now under President Putin.
The extreme view behind the falling out of political correctness seems to be its growing divisive nature as reflected by the saying that over time, the poor get poorer while the rich get stinking richer. The shameless divide between the clean haves and the unwashed have nots has become abysmal. Very likely a pundit may write: “It’s not economics stupid!” Rather “it’s gruesome national politics.”
TWO – The tinderboxes of war: The world remembers with relief the Bush’s Father and Son Gambit in the Middle East: Iraq’s Desert Storm and Baghdad’s “shock and awe” were dud tinderboxes. A few countries NOW may not be totally so, but could be candidate tinderboxes like North Korea, Syria, Afghanistan, Israel, Palestine, Ukraine, Georgia of the former USSR, etc. These countries if left alone to solve their own internal conflicts or against each other are not likely to cause WW III. Also, for example, the Kashmir lingering border wounds between India and Pakistan, both engaged in a nuclear arms race, could remain continental and may not trigger a global war.
These tinderboxes with their re-invigorated bilateral relations with world power countries, however, may complicate matters. If non-aligned countries realign with either the free world or the so called non-democratic countries and foreign affairs loses its diplomatic and humane content, then good bye world peace este, mankind.
THREE – the changed process and content of INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS: Well, the opposing view is that is not happening at all; not yet, but SUBTLE CHANGES could be happening in broad daylight within a narrow context. If the process is diplomacy and the content is permanent national interest as the simplified definition of international relations, recent events then should suggest something of interest to opinion writers or bloggers.
Lately from newsbreaks from around the world, can we infer from actuations of world leaders that their country’s ambassadors may have been lowered to the stature of liaison officers and their embassies mere outposts not unlike the desert outposts of the French Foreign Legion?
This example is minuscule, but America for generations will not forget the recent blow to its greatness. What happened to American public servants in its Benghasi outpost will be indelible to international relations history for a long long time. Have the Americans forgotten the hostage taking in their Teheran outpost during the watch of President James Carter?
FOUR — the unheard high pitch noise of war: Can it be said that the high pitch noise of war can only be heard by the dogs of war? The Group of Eight (G8 turned G7) and the Group of Twenty (G20) are still there waiting in the wings ready to perform their noble (or is it ignored?) role as the UN’s double to make the world stay in even keel. But on matters of world peace and security, the new US President Donald J. Trump may have introduced if not imposed an initiative for world peace or its conflagration. President Trump was talking ONE ON ONE to country’s leaders with clout and influence.
In basketball parlance, it’s not zone defense but a man to man guarding. Playing man to man for a whole game, it’s a relentless mental and physical effort which is tiring and exhausting. Since his move to the White House, President Trump has talked to international and national leaders man to man(woman) in reverse chronological order: the President of China, the Prime Minister of Germany, the King of Jordan, President of Egypt, Prime Minister of Iraq, President of Peru, the Prime Minister of Israel, the Prime Minister of Australia, the Prime Minister of Canada, the Prime Minister of Japan, and the Prime Minister of the UK. Read the list backwards to have a measure of the tensile strength of USA’s bilateral relations with these countries. Still uncertain to happen is a meeting between Presidents Trump and Putin.
Alin ba talaga ang magiging dahilan, mitsa o gatilyo ng pagbabago sa kapayapaan sa mundo: yung pagbomba chemical na pumatay ng maraming bata sa Syria o yung Tugon ni President Trump na tomahawk missiles sa airport sa Syria?
The Society of Honor by Joe America 
Who ever was the man they call Aesop, thought us “The Boy Who Cried Wolf” for false alarms.
But I think he is also behind stories of preparedness, wad it the “grasshopper and the ant”?
Too much complacency thru the “Hare and the Tortoise”
He was the one man media machine during his time.
We have false alarms like the numerous bluffs of WW3, which are likes cries of “Wolf”
But we should be prepared like how ants prepares for a storm, and not be too over confident like a hare,here’s looking at you,super powers.( and those who think they can handle them with ease)
FRAGILE WORLD TETHERS IN VOLATILITY
Variation of the theme
The Fragile World due to
1.1 overpopulation
1.2 the big divide from the richest to the poorest
1.3 subjected to terrorism
1.4 depleted resources
1.5 already feeling the harmful effects of Climate Change
Tethers in Volatility due to
2.1 geopolitics at least among the big nuclear powers
2.2 the development and possible use of nuclear and chemical weapons of rogue nations, not to mention the use by the big nuclear powers themselves
2.3 Increased worldwide terrorism especially spawned by ISIS
2.4 Exponential and continued Climate Change as the world continues its CC path with abatement still unfelt, bringing about increasingly strong storms/ hurricanes, flooding, drought, etc.
2.5 in-country grown political and other uncertainties
I’d add to the volatility the breakdown of a demand for reason in favor of emotionalism, the latter fueled by a need for self-actualization, somehow cut off by social media and political poison.
Products of science and technology: chemical and nuclear weapons, exponential growth of computer and internet capabilities bringing about incomparable synergistic emotionalism — fuelled by political poison — with few uplifting ones on the 86400/7 seconds-clock.
Stop this technological world, I want to get off. After I finish my cup of barako coffee. 🙂
Haha, yes, proper priorities!
A world either tethering in volatility or teetering in volatility still makes for a scary image. 😦
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1. Will there a World War III?
1.1. Absolutely. Mankind has not learned a thing and continues to engage in war. We continue to do all the unintelligent things we have done before, like marrying for the wrong reason, killing for little or no reason, and voting a berdugo like Duterte into office.
1.2. Absolutely not. The weapons of mass destruction are too powerful and will destroy all of mankind. We are becoming more intelligent and do superb things, like falling in love and staying in love forever, performing random acts of kindness for little or no reason, and voting a paragon like Robredo into office.
*****
The Yin and Yang of Love: I will not have it another way.
http://articles.mercola.com/sites/articles/archive/2016/02/06/genetically-engineered-trees.aspx
I think mutant trees and mutant fuits and veggies are also scary if the birds spread them all over the world. Scarier than any bio,Chemical or nuclear.
Fear of the unknown is the worst fear.
Something for the environment advocates to study and act on before it is too late. Paging Sen Legarda and staff to research on and act accordingly. Thanks for the link, karl.
You are welcome, I was rsearching on reforestation by planting fast growing trees, but it looked more like a pandoras box than a panacea, which might cause pandemics and pandemonium.
NH,
medyo huli ako sa balita, GMO issue already reached the SC. Nothing specific about trees though, only food.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-philippines-gmo-idUSKCN0W90MK
Thanks karl. No, you are not late on the news, to my mind, because the concern is current.
I posted this with a promise in the preceding piece:
popoy says:
April 16, 2017 at 5:25 pm
Oh my! But really nice. A few hours before the next post like a few minutes before the change hour of a New Year and Metro Manila et al, the cities come alive, light up with whistle bombs and ear drums shattering pyrotechnics
.
http://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/north-korean-missile-blows-up-on-test-launch-as-pence-heads-for-south/ar-BBzSzL6?li=AAadgLE&ocid=spartandhp
Inductives, inductives I call the awareness of explaining brains in TSOH. May be serendipitous in support or debunking a blog deductive of sort: A fragile World on the Brink of Emptying a Fecal Load,.
This is my first comment on the yet to be posted next blog.
Malcolm Gladwell’s “What the Dog Saw” may be inductive when in it somewhere, it claims an MMA dog upon acceptance of defeat lies down legs up and expose its breast and tummy for the victor to chew on while the victor like a real man worthy (I say) of a US Medal of Honor walks away in noble triumph.
With or without a “chemnuclear” payload, exceeds or short or on target, a test fired missile is TEST-FIRED for bravery or cowardice, for something or for nothing. Hope it’s not a nope in TSOH to read my deductive piece.
And at this moment? I say there you go! It’s speaking in generalizations my bad. Not many hours have passed and I see here goldsmiths of discourse and brains of honor adding reasons to meager conjectures. Thanks for the pros and cons and elaboration, TSOH neurons.
If you mean MMA as in mixed martial arts, lying down can work for brazilian jiu-jitsu masters, just waiting for the attackers to fall victim to their deadly chokes.
Talking about volatility or not, of the local kind — however one assesses it — here is news from PNP:
The PNP National Monitoring Center reported a total of 131 persons killed during operations against illegal drugs from March 1 to April 16 or in the last 47 days. (An average of 2.8 deaths daily during the period.)
Of that number, 39 were killed in the government campaign in the last nine days or from April 7 to 16. This brought the average to four deaths daily.
This statistics is much lower than the approximate 30 deaths daily in the previous period before the temporary stop of the operation. I hope the statistics on drug related deaths reduces to zero while increasing the number placed on rehab.
http://www.philstar.com/headlines/2017/04/17/1691058/39-dead-holy-week-drug-war
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Mike quoted a death toll of 8,626 two blogs ago.
“Your statement rings shallow when we consider the 8,626 people who have been killed violently as of 28 March.”
*****
Thanks edgar. That prompted me to visit Mike’s post that I missed reading:
https://joeam.com/2017/04/12/the-philippines-expendable-in-the-new-world-order/#comment-214362
Thanks very much Mike for that post. Nothing like personal experience about PH social media — before, during and after the 2016 national election.
Police officers coming out now…
http://news.abs-cbn.com/news/04/18/17/filipino-cops-describe-kill-rewards-staged-crime-scenes-in-drug-war
With the number of killed previous surrenderees of Oplan Tokhang,
Oplan Tokhang then was like signing your own death warrant.
The truth of the killings is so horrible, all the fake noise and high-level complacency covering it up becomes pretty horrible stuff. Every enabler is on the side of Satan, I think, and that includes some in the Church, and the Board of Regents of UP.
UP? MRP was right about them.
The complexity of the war in Syria reflects the complexity of today’s world: Two superpowers (USA and Russia) and two regional powers (Turkey and Iran) plus local groups (Kurds and ISIS) come together in a toxic mix of shifting alliances. The only parallel I can think of is the 30 years war.
What came out of the 30 years war from 1618-1648 was the idea of national sovereignty – shaped out of the experience of three major powers (France, Sweden, Austria) interfering in what started as a local conflict between Catholics and Protestants in Bohemia (Prague) and went crazy.
Just like the idea of human rights mainly came out of World War 2 and its humanitarian horrors. Question is, what will the lessons of this new era of bloodshed be? Will the coming G20 in Hamburg this July be able to moderate matters? Historical experience shows – not for long. There always was such a thing as a “Concert of Powers” in Europe, managing to make deals and of course break them. G20 is a global Concert of Powers. Too much tensions between them now.
Irineo,
It is sad to say, when one considers world, regional, and local histories from the years, say, 5000 BC to the present, and the brutality of humans against human. One may say it is one of continuous war interrupted by a short period of peace.
Even Spain, during what is considered the golden age, under King Ferdinand and Queen Isabella — with the latter considered having the better head than the former — it was one of almost continuous wars before and after Ferdinand and Isabella with the then many factions of then unnamed Spanish Peninsula and the Romans, the Moors and the Europeans of France, Germany and Britain with alliances and rivalries involving marriages of a son or daughter here with the daughter or king there. During the time of Isabella and Ferdinand, Spain with Portugal finally brought within its kingdom (?) was the “center of the world” with riches pouring in from the Americas when Isabella gave Columbus the go ahead against hubby’s objection — with supposedly Isabella saying to hubby, I am acting as the sovereign of Aragon while you “dear husband” may be the sovereign of Castile. (The historical note is that Ferdinand and Isabella through their marriage had the double crown of Castile and Aragon. And that Isabella was the great grandson of Pedro the Cruel who killed his mother a la Nero.)
In fact it is depressing that the devout Catholic Isabella brought about the Grand Inquisition where many were killed in the name of religion.
It is a depressing thought as we consider the world, regional and country situations today.
Are we better evolved humans? Not a good thought a day after Easter.
Isabella was the great granddaughter of Pedro the Cruel = Isabella was the great grandson of Pedro the Cruel
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_of_Castile – allegedly he killed his wife.. what is also interesting is that while he was seen as cruel by some, others saw him more favorably: “It became a fashion to speak of him as El Justiciero, the executor of justice (the Lawful).[9] Apologists were found to say that he had killed only men who would not submit themselves to the law or respect the rights of others.”
somehow this kind of debate sounds familiar. I just can’t make the connection.
Irineo, not a debate, but riding on the idea of world-regional-local conflicts — with new country labels, grievances and weapons but something — I believe we read before like stories using essentially the same basic plot.
I specifically meant the debate about whether to call Pedro Cruel or Just…
Where exactly does justice end and cruelty begin? Not easy to answer..
“Apologists were found to say that he had killed only men who would not submit themselves to the law or respect the rights of others.”
Thanks for the note.
Where exactly does justice end and cruelty begin? Not easy to answer..
I agree it is not easy to answer that. A definitely fair court-trial of a heinous criminal — of the kind, say, of having raped and murdered tens of women — being let off on a jail term with no possibility of parole somehow does not agree with my deep feelings. Being given 10 whip lashes everyday of his jail term seems more of a justice to me.
I thought at first that to write about these many fissures threatening to scrape the face of the earth will need so many installments to make sense out of its many profundities. I just dealt superficially with FOUR which produced a sort of chain reactions from neurons of TSOH.
There’s more but no more time for me to concoct a reasoned elaboration. Enough of a “best way”. Set aside the M24 SWS or the AA-12 shotgun to shoot down particular war issues. Be content to use less lethal birdshot 12 gauge shot guns. Focus on the less cerebral approach. Like these.
FIVE : Find the many answers why immigration is the neo-colonialism which subtly can upset the descendants of the original immigrants turned colonialists.
SIX : Speculate on how big religions can mutate into small and big cults of terror righteousness.
SEVEN: Invent the synthesis of failed thesis and dud anti-thesis of poverty and class struggle.
EIGHT: Dream on anti-establishmentarianism (longest English word) as the ultimate ISM of liberty, equality, and fraternity as the bastard offspring of totalitarianism, fascism, nazism, democratarianism or whatever.
NINE: Explore the salience of the evolution of governance from its micro stages of management growing from it mechanistic scientific management into its manipulative human behaviour hybrids. Can this be a bridge which can connect the abysmal dots of war and peace?
TEN : Explore the labyrinthine darkness of the human mind to seek the light for change; personal and societal change. Kim Jong-Un: what makes him so angry with USA? The North Koreans: what make them a compliant and submissive society? Ask the same questions of the Chinese, the Sokors, the Americans, the Filipinos, etc.
Plumb the depths of psychology and sociology on the enigma of war and peace. Be proactive search for a phoenix. After the fall of the Roman Empire without a chemo-nuclear war there was LESS KNOWN 1,000 years of middle (dark ages) interregnum followed by a rebith, renaissance and reformation for a neo-humankind. But be forewarned, in the audacity of hope, what you might get is only pliant audacity.
A limited war to put an end to the threats of that madman in North Korea is the best solution to this problem to that uneasy peace that the world is now enjoying.
The leader’s bullying of his neighbor will not stop unless he is given the hard lessons in peacefully co-existing in a world that do not need someone like him.
Many people all over the world became too tired of the second world war that they will certainly oppose the thought of a third war that is sure to bring misery to almost all the inhabitants of this place we call home.
Quite a good read about the Nokor War
https://personalliberty.com/war-north-korea-probably-look-like/
“Back in 2013 during the last major flare up between the U.S. and North Korea I wrote an extensive analysis on the North Korea wild card and how it could be used by globalists as a catalyst for international economic instability titled Will Globalists Use North Korea To Trigger Catastrophe? As I have warned consistently over the years, like Syria, North Korea is a longstanding chaos box; a big red button that the elites can press any time they wish to instigate a chain of greater geopolitical tensions. The question has always been, will they actually use it?
Well, it appears that under the Trump administration the establishment might go for broke. I have not seen U.S. war rhetoric so intense since the second invasion of Iraq, and all over missile tests which have been standard fare for North Korea for many years. With whispers by Trump aides of a possible 50,000 boots on the ground in Syria, and open discussion of preemptive strikes in North Korea, this time kinetic conflict is highly likely.
Yes, we have see such military pressures and posturing before, but this time feels different. Why is an aimless quagmire war with massive potential global financial repercussions more likely under Trump? Because Trump ran under a nationalist conservative banner, and he will forever be labeled a nationalist conservative even if his behavior appears to be more globalist in nature. Rhetoric is often more psychologically powerful in the minds of the masses than action. Therefore, everything Trump does from now on will also be labeled a product of the “nationalist conservative” ideology; including all of his screw-ups. And, with Trump in office the establishment is perfectly happy to pursue actions once considered taboo, because demonizing conservatives and liberty proponents is one of their primary objectives.
Liberty movement activists will gnash their teeth and scream at the top of their lungs that Trump is “not acting like a conservative,” so how can conservative thinking be blamed by extension? But these people just don’t grasp the thought processes of the human mind. No matter how much we try to separate ourselves from the Trump-train if (or when) he goes full-bore globalist, our efforts will be futile. The mainstream media has spent considerable time and effort making sure that all of us are lumped in with the so-called “alt-right.” Remember, I tried to warn the movement about this long before Trump won the election.
Currently, a naval task force is en route to North Korea and its ultimate purpose is not yet clear. Could this be more posturing or a precursor to a strike scenario? I am reminded of the U.S.S. Maddox which was sent to patrol the waters off of Vietnam, the same battleship that reported an attack by North Vietnamese torpedo boats which was used as justification for the initiation if the Vietnam War. As it turned out, no such attack actually occurred.
The presence of a U.S. fleet off North Korea can only be intended to instigate further aggression, not defuse the situation.
So, if war with North Korea is inevitable given the circumstances, what would such a war look like? Here are some elements I think are most important; elements that make the war unwinnable, if winning is even the purpose…
North Korean air defense
The North Koreans spent the better part of the last war with the U.S. being heavily battered by air bombardments. They have had plenty of time since then to consider this problem and prepare. Even the most gung-ho American military minds are forced to admit that using only air based attacks in North Korea is not practical. And where we have been spoiled by steady video streams of laser guided hell dropped on Iraqi and Afghani targets in the past, don’t expect things to go so easily in North Korea.
While North Korea is still rife with economic problems (like every other communist and socialist nation), they still have an industrial base and produce many of their own arms. This includes and extensive missile net backed by a maze of radar systems. Their air force is by all accounts obsolete, but as I have mentioned in the past, advanced missile defense is the wave of the future. It’s cheaper and can render expensive enemy air force and naval units impotent.
North Korea uses an indigenous built surface-to-air missile (SAM) system called the KN-06 which is as capable as some Russian SAM systems. They also field huge numbers of MANPAD (man-portable air defense) units against planes and helicopters attempting to dodge radar defenses at low altitudes. This is layered on top of a vast array of anti-aircraft artillery. And, most of this anti-air apparatus is either mobile or based underground.
What this means is, a ground invasion is the only way to attack North Korea effectively and make room for air units to strike interior targets.
Underground facilities
The Pentagon estimates at least 6,000 to 8,000 underground military facilities in North Korea. New bases are being discovered all the time. While “bunker buster” bombs can possibly damage these facilities, it is unlikely that they would be completely destroyed or rendered ineffective. There is also an estimated 84 large tunnels through mountains on the southern border which would allow an immediate invasion by North Korean ground forces into South Korea. Only four of these tunnels exits have been found and blocked by South Korea.
It is important to remember that underground infrastructure has always been the bane of the modern western military. These facilities will not be taken by air. They will have to be taken the hard way — with ground troops.
North Korean infantry
In 2013 the Department of Defense reported North Korean ground forces at around 950,000. This, of course, does not count their nearly 8 million infantry reserves. They also boast over 200,000 highly trained paramilitary soldiers. North Korea has no means whatsoever to project these forces overseas against the U.S. or anyone else other than South Korea. The only way they can do damage to U.S. forces is if we show up on their doorstep.
Since a ground invasion is the only way to proceed with what will obviously be “regime change” in North Korea, U.S. forces will be facing an endless mire of mountain warfare worse than Afghanistan with limited air support options. If it comes down to a war of attrition rather than superior technology, victory will be impossible in North Korea.
The nuclear option
The consensus view among military analysts is that North Korea will never attempt to use nukes offensively because the resulting retaliation by the U.S. would be devastating. However, I think this mindset is a bit simplistic.
I agree that though the mainstream media is bombarding us constantly with images of a psychotic dictatorship, North Korea is not insane enough to use nukes against the U.S. or its allies outright. If such an event did occur, I would immediately suspect the possibility of a false flag because there would be zero gain for North Korea. That said, in the event of a ground invasion into North Korea, the use of nuclear weapons becomes highly advantageous for Pyongyang.
Consider this, with vast numbers of U.S. ground forces operating in the region, nuclear retaliation by the U.S. is simply not going to happen. A pullout of most troops would have to take place. North Korea needs only one nuke strike to destroy a U.S. fleet or hit a large civilian target in South Korea killing potential millions or hit a U.S. troop base in South Korea killing tens of thousands of American soldiers.
Once we commit ground troops into the region, we make a nuclear attack useful to North Korea, when it never would have been useful before. This is why the preemptive strike rhetoric based on a rational of stopping a “more nuclear capable” North Korea is either pure stupidity or an engineered crisis in the making.
The Chinese question
Is China’s strange shift in support of tougher actions against North Korea after Trump’s refusal to label them currency manipulators legitimate? Well, if it is, then I think this would support my longtime assertion that China is not anti-globalist at all, but just another branch of the globalist cabal. This is a discussion for another time, though.
China’s sudden softening of stance against U.S. pressures on North Korea seem to me to be the most blatant signal that an actual war is coming. If China refuses to present military or economic repercussions to act as a deterrent to invasion, then an invasion is likely to happen. This does not mean, though, that a future crisis between the U.S. and China will not be engineered.
In fact, an invasion by America into North Korea opens numerous doors to all kinds of crisis events the establishment can exploit. For example, how many people are naive enough to expect that U.S. air maneuvers will respect Chinese air space restrictions? I hope not many. Having American military units in a war stance so close to the Chinese border is a recipe for disaster, and I am not necessarily referring to military disaster.
War, contrary to popular belief, is not good for the economy. In fact, war is the perfect poison for economic trade and production. The U.S. in particular is utterly dependent on the international use of the dollar as the world reserve currency. Without this status, the American economy is dead in the water. China is a central pillar in global trade and could, with the help of a few other nations, kill the dollars reserve status very quickly.
If you are curious as to why international financiers would be interested in undermining the U.S. economy in such a way, I suggest you read my article The Economic End Game Explained. The greater point is this — a war with North Korea would have nothing to do with North Korea. It would only be a means to a greater end. At bottom, there is little or nothing to be gained by Americans in this kind of conflagration. So we should be asking ourselves who actually would gain from it?”
Indeed, most interesting. I do note that it was reported that the US fleet was actually far from North Korea, so that whole episode needs to be taken apart as to what, why.
The complicity of the media in the rise of totalitarians is also worth studying. I saw the term “majorityism” today, as a threat to democracy. There is also populism and sensationalism and circulation building and anything but sense. The Fourth Estate is not an official institution of democracy, and clearly there is a catering to private interests ahead of public among both PH and US media.
It is interesting, the idea that the US should just ratchet down the noise because North Korea, today, is not much of a threat. I’m inclined to agree with that. In the meantime, work on China to work on NK. Trump is likely to drop one of those megabombs on the NK leadership, I fear.
About the megabomb they tested in Afghanistan, the report said the tunnel system of Nokor and underground bunkers are as formidable as Afghanistan’s.The article said avoid air and ground attacks. In short avoid engaging. The author also down played the military industrial complex by no one gets rich because of war(or something like that), the economics of war is just terrible.It is true, no one wins, I am not sure that no one gets rich .
I can imagine that the underground facilities would be quite elaborate. Why feed your people when you can dig dirt?
NK, freed of totalitarian economics, would be like East Germany, a fertile field of economic development for a United Korea. Humans are really stupid people, I think. The need for tribal loyalty overwhelms sense.
A maverick economist if there could be one could waywardly pursue the notion that economics is an anti-poor social science. Take the leading twenty nations in the UN Human Development Index and compare their poverty statistics with the 20 countries lying at the bottom. Zoom in to the countries of ASEAN like the Philippines, Myanmar, Indonesia, . . .
Compare contents of The Economist and Fortune Magazine. Forget the typical and the average . Contextualize wealth production and poverty epidemics of countries in the margins or periphery. Think or let the mind fly to clouds of doubt about the economics of war. Do the bombs (e.g.MOAB) of war equalize the haves and have-nots? Tell me to stop if this is trolling or breaching gray matter normalcy in blogging.
I tend to think that is wrong, and economics raise the standard of living for most, but safety nets are porus and income distribution is poor.
Regarding the underground facilities I think the US now has the technology to do serious damage. This has been tested in Afghanistan recently. The MOAB, mother of all bombs, wiped out large numbers of Talebans in underground caverns. These bombs don’t need to hit the enemies directly. Their lungs will simply shatter from the pressure.
Yes Chemrock, but that mother of all non nuclear bombs, their lungs will shatter after their ear drums shatter.
karl, thanks for that article of the rather prolific Brandon Smith. I read it with great interest. It cited enough data (accuracy I don’t know) to support his article.
Without diminishing Smith’s article, I have confidence that the US National Security Council have within the members more data and studies approached in various angles about the North Korea conundrum, especially the implication of any action on the US part on the troops now stationed in Sokor and Japan.
The article has enough of the elements that a Tom Clancy can take and make his Jack Ryan novel. It may need 10 Jack Ryan minds though. 🙂
I will miss Tom Clancy,Vince Flynn and Ludlum
Matt Damon, a future US Pres? reaped the fitness benefits of jogging in all his films (I have seen) with Ludlum. NOKORS now I just read is looking for a USA’s James Bond who thwarted or sabotaged their bomb tests.
Matt Damon must hide now, Nokor will be after him. But they might blame the Fast and the Furious.
Here is a new twist, China needs us,more than we need them?
https://www.forbes.com/sites/ralphjennings/2017/04/20/china-needs-the-philippines-more-than-the-philippines-needs-china/#517606ac5f16
China Needs Its Friend The Philippines More Than The Philippines Needs China
“It’s easy to say Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte needs help from China for his country’s development in exchange for laying aside a maritime sovereignty dispute. In October Beijing pledged $24 billion in aid and investment for the country where a quarter of the 102 million people lives in poverty. And after years of friction, Beijing now firmly controls Scarborough Shoal, a major South China Sea fishery coveted by boats based out of the Philippine island Luzon just 220 kilometers away.
But here’s a new reality: China needs the Philippines just as much, maybe more, as the other way around. You can tell by how mildly the Chinese foreign ministry reacted April 7 – just voicing “concern” – after Duterte said he would militarize the Spratly Islands in the same contested sea. Duterte backpedaled over the following week, ending on a milder commitment to improve infrastructure on nine islets held already by the Philippines. China quickly buried its concern, probably not something it would do over concern about, say, Japan or the United States”……..
I don’t think China needs the PH more. I think China is well on her way to having the Philippines, so the issue is moot.
We are Pwned.
Some paraphrased lines.
The ICBM tech that will reach Seattle is still five years away?(Like they said five years ago)
Trump: we wore blindfolds for too long,and this has to stop.
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The article stated that NOKOR allowed a US nuclear weapons expert to observe and review their progress.
Did I read that correctly?
Nostradamus described a 27 year war between the nations of Islam and Christianity (probably 2001-2028) in which events gradually escalate in stages until WWIII. America, initially, is too busy to intervene – perhaps due to the social unrest of economic collapse at home, and other wars already occupying its troops staring down China and Russia…
Read: End Times and 2019 – https://www.amazon.com/End-Times-2019-Calendar-Countdown-ebook/dp/B00BBN94M0
Read: Nostradamus and the Islamic Invasion of Europe – https://www.amazon.com/dp/1546435840
Cheers, David! It is not inconceivable.