Why the Philippines is virus free, for now

 

See larger chart below

By Joe America

It certainly appears that Philippines has managed to escape the initial spread of the coronavirus. Why is that?

Everyone is still learning about the disease. Let’s look at a few factors that may tell us why the Philippines has not been hit by the spreading disease.

The spread of the disease is statistical. Where has a contagious person been? How many people has the the carrier been close to during the long period (5 to 14 days or more) before symptoms appear? Where do doctors and nurses go when their day is done? How many people does one carrier infect? How many of those infected people are likely to die?

I won’t go over these numbers because they vary depending on where you read and what the test basis for the statistics might be. But, clearly, it is statistical.

Here are some possible reasons the Philippines does not have infection hives:

  • Not many Chinese visit the Philippines compared to other nations. The top tourist destinations for Chinese tourists are Thailand, Japan, Vietnam, South Korea, and Singapore. Outside of Asia, the United States and Italy are prominent. Where have virus hives developed? Below is the current count according to Worldometer. Note the striking correlation with tourist travel.

  • Chinese tourists generally travel in tours, not individually. Chinese mix with Chinese. Cross-talk with Filipinos is infrequent due to the language barrier. Statistically speaking, Chinese are more likely to infect Chinese and return home than infect Filipinos.
  • The Philippine Pogo (gambling) organizations quickly stopped bringing in high-risk employees from infected regions of China. They were protecting their business interests.
  • The Philippine government, and even local governments, and even condominiums and malls, began to carefully  screen people coming in using temperature readings, travel document inspections, and required 14 day quarantine periods for visitors from China. High risk carriers were pushed away.
  • Wuhan, where the disease exploded out, is in Central China. It is a manufacturing hub and technology center. There is no natural linkage between Wuhan and the Philippines. High risk visitors are few.

Here is the Philippine Department of Health’s (DOH’s) count of “Patients under Investigation – Admitted” to hospitals. People with a sore throat, headaches, and fever were admitted and held until testing could be done. The cases built up and then were cleared, one after another.

 

On February 26, DOH reported 38 patient discharges and only one new admission. PUI-A’s dropped to 64.

Is the Philippines free and clear? Absolutely not.

There are still three major risks that could lead to pockets of contagion:

  1. 445 cruise ship passengers have been brought back to the Philippines and quarantined at New Clark City. Three showed symptoms of the disease and have been taken to a hospital. It is a small hive, but it is the most dangerous yet.
  2. Medical and transportation staff can carry the disease home or into public spaces. We presume precautions have been strict to this point.
  3. Spread of the disease to nations other than China would increase risks to Filipinos as language is no longer a barrier and screening at airports becomes ineffective.

DOH says it is ‘ready’, expanding confinement and testing capabilities to more hospitals and having ‘lockdown’ procedures in place should a hive develop. The Philippines has certainly benefitted by being spared early contagion.

Still . . . still . . . I’m personally working the statistics and will until the threat is gone:

  • Avoid crowds
  • Keep distance from people
  • Take care at ATMs, elevators, CRs and other high-risk places
  • Wash hands regularly
  • Keep hands away from face
  • Enjoy home a lot

And I’m certainly not attending the Department of Tourism’s month long sales event that defies all statistical sense in the face of a global disease pandemic.

 

Comments
201 Responses to “Why the Philippines is virus free, for now”
  1. karlgarcia says:

    We might have returning OFWs from Italy, Middle East and South Korea.
    Disinfection in the airport ala Indonesia then quarantine somewhere, that could resolve it temporarily, and worry about the jobs later.

    • kasambahay says:

      apparently, italy is fast getting the hub of covid-19, europe’s equivalent to ground zero. reportedly, most of those that died of the disease in iran had been to italy recently.

      the italians are kissy/touchy sort of people, always kissing check to check, hugging and slapping one another on the back. very demonstrative and affectionate. I notice arabs are same? always kissing check to check even men. no wonder the virus spreads rapidly and killed more.

      • karlgarcia says:

        Watchout French kissing French men, women and tourists.

      • NHerrera says:

        kasambahay, karl: right you both are about cheek-to-cheek or French kissing. Along with that, here are something very concerning about the present status of the covid-19 infections worldwide:

        – just a week or so ago, the countries reported to be infected numbered by the late 20s it is now higher than 55, and the earlier infected countries’ confirmed cases as well as those from the new entrants keep on increasing. As is reported, regionally, the only area not infected is Antartica.

        – WHO a few days ago noted the decreasing number of new confirmed cases in Mainland China, particularly the Hubei Province. But during the last two days, the cases numbers went up again. This news was preceded by a statement from Dr. Liang Wannian, a senior official with China’s National Health Commission, who said during a WHO press conference last week that despite “good news” of decreasing cases and deaths in Wuhan, “the current situation is still grim and complex.”

        – This one is parochial on my part [read: bias]: The American Physical Society March Meeting, a gathering of physicists has been cancelled due to concerns about covid-19 — we are not talking about a meeting of sumo wrestlers here; we are talking of physicists.

        • NHerrera says:

          Here is more.

          One problem with covid-19 is that for healthy young individuals the symptoms can be rather mild or worse, they can be asymptomatic and yet they are already carriers and can pass on the virus to others. A genetic study of the cases in Washington — where one died from the virus — gives some evidence of this. As a result, the suggestion is made that there may be hundreds of undiagnosed cases in the area. Not a comforting thought.

          https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1235505/genetic-clues-hint-at-hidden-virus-cases-in-washington-state#ixzz6FUtFeZXg

        • karlgarcia says:

          Related to my link of cancelled games and concerts.
          Meanwhile Trump initially said Covid is being politicized by the dems now O think he is changing his tune.

        • kasambahay says:

          nherrera, meeting of physicists dont necessarily have to be person to person in a big hall, they can have teleconference or via skype, etc. use modern tech easily available. that way, they’ll save on jet fuel and carbon emission, check in and check out of hotels, etc. all time consuming, mundane and tiresome considering some of physicists are no longer in their twenties! older physicists may have to adapt though, not keen sila on modern tech and prefer face to face meeting where there is food and drinks and freebies.

          • kasambahay says:

            as well, “the suggestion is made that there may be hundreds of undiagnosed cases” . . . if it was moi, I’ll stay focus and concentrate on cases at hand and not worry on the off chance there there maybe other cases. stuff them.

            if the coronavirus kills them, they’ll get buried and become statistics.

            americans know full well that if they have suspicious symptoms like fever and productive cough, they ought to see doctor soonest. or risk dropping dead on the street.

            to be infected, the contact has to be sustained for minimum of 15 minutes, or there is less chance of transmission. a distance of around a meter is preferable, any closer and that’s it! you’re hit!

            I wont worry about those undiagnosed cases po. I already am 100yrs old and my wrinkles dont want to look a day older.

            • NHerrera says:

              I wont worry about those undiagnosed cases po. I already am 100yrs old and my wrinkles dont want to look a day older.

              Hahaha. Yes, worry does add to the wrinkles.

              But if those undiagnosed cases (aka asymptomatic cases) lead to infections of vulnerable ones and these are passed on farther, we do have a problem. But perhaps both of us are being ahead here. Only after all these have panned out, and we have a good statistical base, will we know the extent to which these cases contributed to the spread of the virus. Meantime, I suggest for you not to worry for the sake of the wrinkles. 🙂

              • NHerrera says:

                As this is related to the above, I will throw this in.

                More on covid-19 cases in the US.

                About a week ago, the news in the US is that the confirmed cases in the US was some 60. Now it has increased to 88. This includes the 44 people evacuated from the Diamond Princess cruise ship in Japan and 3 from the epicenter of the virus in Wuhan, China — these total 47; the rest comes from an additional 19 travel-related cases in America, and 18 person-to-person transmissions, as well as 4 other cases, in Illinois and Rhode Island whose origin is not yet established. There are now two deaths in King County, Washington.

                Here is a bit of trivia: reading through the confirmed cases worldwide, I found that all letters of the English Alphabet are covered in the country listing up to the letter V for Vietnam, except for the letters W, X, Y, Z.

                Another trivia: I quibble with others who call the virus pandemic (a word not being used yet by WHO at this time) as a black swan — low-probability, high impact event. Health experts and scientists in fact say that the probability of a virus pandemic is not low-probability, because of population explosion and the frequent crowding of people in gatherings and air-transport and yes, cruise ships; and the interaction of humans with animals, pets, etc. We hope there will be a lot of learnings from the covid-19 event, especially if it results in great economic impact worldwide (I hope not).

                Again, kasambahay, not to worry. Remember those wrinkles. 🙂

                [My point in the US covid-19 citation is because it is the the top economic powerhouse and if the situation there worsens, we will have both the first and second top world economy tanking; and this will be a case of some worry.]

          • NHerrera says:

            Teleconferencing. Yes to that. And the old physicists should adapt.

            But you know, my experience as a technical man, is that some of this technical meetings are useful to some to be able to sit down with a favorite colleague(s) to have a live person-to-person conversation about a common research item, comparing their findings and going over their notebooks for the equations and maths. You may be surprised that some of these highly regarded physicists are still old school. These physicists-mathematicians are not like the geeks of the cyber-world, as you yourself noted.

  2. NHerrera says:

    Thanks for the update. Your series of coronavirus blog articles with particular focus on the Philippines while including as background the world situation is no doubt useful to the PH readers. Thanks for re-emphasizing the simple personal care things one can do to help oneself as well as fellow Filipinos and foreign guests in the country in the important fight against the coronavirus

    I noted this:

    The Philippine Pogo (gambling) organizations quickly stopped bringing in high-risk employees from infected regions of China. They were protecting their business interests.

    Nothing like the wallet as a good incentive!

    • karlgarcia says:

      The criminal elements in POGO are sent back home too.

    • NHerrera says:

      If I may add, among the reasons why the coronavirus situation in the PH is so far manageable is having at the helm of DOH, an experienced medical doctor, Dr. Duque.

      I am glad PAO’s Dr. Persida Acosta is not at the helm. [The Dr. title in front of his name is for her being a graduate of Doctor of Social Development from the University of the Philippines.]

  3. karlgarcia says:

    I remember that visitor who claimed that we do not understand the situation. That is why we are trying to understand it, by keeping up with the info

  4. Raw says:

    Whistleblower: HHS Staff Who Met Coronavirus Evacuees Had No Training Or Protection
    [HuffPost]
    Sanjana Karanth
    HuffPostFebruary 28, 2020

    A government whistleblower has alleged that federal health employees who interacted with Americans quarantined for potential exposure to coronavirus were not wearing protective gear or given proper medical training, according to several media reports on Thursday.

    Officials from the Department of Health and Human Services sent more than a dozen ill-equipped workers to California earlier this month to receive the Americans evacuated from Wuhan, China, according to the whistleblower’s 24-page complaint filed Wednesday and obtained first by The Washington Post and later by The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal.

    The complaint raises questions about whether the Trump administration has taken adequate precautions in handling the outbreak. The president tried to downplay the danger of a domestic coronavirus outbreak on Wednesday, despite bipartisan concern about the government’s slow response.

    • Micha says:

      It is of course revealing that a religious nut like Mike Pence was put in charge of the federal response to this Covid pandemic.

      No need for scientific or clinical approach. Let’s just bow our heads and pray over and hope that the saving grace of the Lord will miraculously wipe out this plague by summer.

    • kasambahay says:

      I really find that very hard to believe that american officials from the dept of health and human services did not exercise caution and put on protective gears assuming they were doctors, and not civilian admin staff. had said officials been medical doctors, they would not need donald trump to tell them what to do, healthwise. they would just do their job of ‘do no harm’ (their oath) and ensure the virus is contained, not spread around; the people safe, their health and well being not compromised.

      anyhow, para sa akin po, no point questioning whether trump admin is taking adequate protection in handling the outbreak. said question should be directed to health officials, they’re on the frontline and face to face with the disease, not politicians.

      and donald trump ought to be getting his live cue from health chief, constantly and regularly, updated all the time. my opinion lang po.

        • kasambahay says:

          the scope of those undetected americans with the covid-19 will soon be known when they start dropping off dead on the streets, one after another. the virus hits fast and death is just as fast, walking sila one moment, dead the next, unable to breath with multiple organ failure, breathing is main problem, may pulmonary arrest. just 4minutes without air is enough for the body to go into arrest.

          I believe americans are not dumb, they can easily replicate testing kit and made copious copies. they already have the materials readily available, all they have to do is assemble to specification. else they can borrow our doctors and ‘pick their brains’. we have been exposed to the disease earlier and have the experience of dealing with it.

          when push comes to shove, doctors do reach out to contemporaries overseas and dip into knowledge base. bouncing off ideas vs one another and get the best possible outcome.

          • karlgarcia says:

            Acosta redux imminent. Evidence as a result of sloppy Foresnsics.If CSI and the TV show Outbreak were not fiction.

            • kasambahay says:

              acosta is our own mike pence, haha. left out of the loop and itching to get into covid-19 bandwagon kaya, went after ex health chief garin et al na lang si acosta. bringing back dengvax issues.

              • karlgarcia says:

                Hehe Acosta went into this conversation because of your mentioning of dropping dead bodies.
                Acosta= Mike Pence is a good one.

                I scoured for Pence’s HIV policies, I do not agree with going against the use of condoms and just abstain instead.
                That I Will never agree with even if I am Catholic.

  5. popoy says:

    In communications science, it is said the medium is the message, and the message is the massage.

    COV-19 Statistics is a massage providing both comfort and fear. Keep the death numbers low and the number of cases high gives false comfort that COV-19 is not really that dangerous and fatal. On the contrary, keeping the number of cases low to depict effective control of disease SPREAD could mislead the population.

    Negative correlation in stats says INCREASING number of cases while decreasing number of deaths should not be alarming. HIGH death rate in a LOW case scenario should be suspicious or suspect. Which ever and whatever, washing hands and or using hands sanitizer frequently is a good individual safeguard.

    Conversely, a stat positive correlation COULD (I’m not very sure) mean the number deaths and the number of cases should be like horse and carriage running towards the same direction in uniform strength and speed.

    https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/a-silent-epidemic-experts-fear-the-coronavirus-is-spreading-undetected-in-southeast-asia/ar-BB10wj6T?ocid=spartandhp

    • popoy says:

      The notion of causation may not be appropriate. If the CAUSE (number of cases) is big while the EFFECT (number of deaths) is small just for playful analysis, CHANGES in cause and effects volume could be helpful indicator of the progress of the disease.

      • popoy says:

        SINNERS OR SAINTS

        IT’S MAY BE NOT ABOUT SIN.
        It’s mainly about
        virus, statistics, and people.

        Is there a punisher and BEINGS
        being punished in this cataclysmic
        possibly connected global
        tragedy in the making?

        When, who, where, how is the content
        and process unfolding of COV-19?
        Asking WHY could be a semblance
        of political and racial bigotry.

        Homo sapiens dealt with such
        phenomenon before but survived extinction.
        Pundits and charlatans would
        put a spin (like this, eh?) to explain
        the physics of current deathly events.

  6. karlgarcia says:

    Hope they were at least screened in the airport,

    https://ph.news.yahoo.com/sokor-tourists-located-mactan-153200591.html

    • kasambahay says:

      it’s understandable po if sokor tourists were trying to hide out sa kabisayaan and wait out the virurs. hirap kasi sa bayan nila, marami na ang namatay duon sa covid-19. they have better chances of being alive dito, and hopefully none of them were sick.

      under surveillance na po sila, they wont escape the eagle eyes of cebu governor gwen garcia. and they had better not wander over to my remote village, we have poison darts and trip wires ready for strangers right where sa may atabay, dry water well, haha.

  7. josephivo says:

    Isn’t the only question of “when?”. I cann’t see any significant difference between the Philippines and all the countries with infections.

    One carrier infects 2 new ones on average. Do the math. But notice the “on average” too. A little bad luck and 1 infects 10 new patients.

    Mitigation tips are the only important information, effect and likelihood of this effect.
    e.g.: reduce sugar, sugar is a heavy burden for the immune system, importance unknown.

    • Yes, I do think it is a matter of time and when it erupts in the Philippine, it will explode because of crowded conditions everywhere.

      • kasambahay says:

        the beauty of being uber poor is that isolated sila, inadvertently quarantined. cannot afford overseas vacation, cannot afford to shop in high end malls, have lesser to no chance sila of getting in contact with the virus.

        all the uber poor can do is dream about overseas travel, shop for supplies in rundown local markets and tiangge. their kids play in neglected basketball courts in tattered clothes and wearing stinelas that have seen better days. poor folks stay home and watch teleseryes maybe from abs-cbn and exchange opinions about anything and everything under the sun. with less to no money to spend, they rarely go to concerts and barely go to cinemas, so watching t.v. na lang po sila.

        tourists rarely see them or go near them for fear of being mugged, also fear of contacting skin diseases as if poverty is contagious. virus carrying tourists rarely visit slums, esteros are not tourist attraction. but if tourists get lost in the slums and esteros, they’d be gawked at and made to feel uncomfortable, off the beaten track kasi. and lost tourists quickly get away from such eyesores.

        tanods and barangay chiefs know all in their district, strangers and anyone not known will be questioned and send away.

        in a way, the uber poor are lucky, never the twain shall meet sila with the dreadful virus.

        • Good points. It’s the middle ground that is vulnerable, I supposed. Those packed into trains and jeepneys. The working dead, to put a grim pun to it.

          • kasambahay says:

            bosses should tell workers to stay home if unwell and not risk it. if feverish and coughing, best for them to make appointment and see doctors, or call thier local barangay chief who’ll organize safe transport for them to go to hospital, where doctors are notified before hand and preparation is made for earlier admittance with no unnecessary delay in processing.

            workers should not be penalize for staying home when sick, their pay ducked.

          • NHerrera says:

            I agree. I just want to add that the “uber” poor sometimes have put their life savings, carabaos and land to send a family member abroad as a nurse or seaman — who may be going home with the virus. So I hope that the DOH are good enough to put particular focus in the testing of these prized citizens of their poor towns and persuade these workers not to rush home to their waiting and eager family and town folks until safe. For once they infect these poor town folks, facilities may not be as available when needed as in the cities — thus causing the faster spread of the virus.

            • Yes. The nation is a powder keg, I fear.

              • sonny says:

                Joe, I believe your favorite island is well-poised to shoo away unwanted intruders, only one access point. I don’t know about the shoreline, though. 🙂

              • The shoreline is problematic because other islands are close. When Yolanda shut all the roads in, gas was smuggled in, no problem. Double the price, but the generator ran.

            • karlgarcia says:

              That is a big problem in those places where only the politicians are rich and the rest are poor, I hope they would not so be welcoming of OFWs from known countries with coved cases, did not go under quarantine.

  8. karlgarcia says:

    We only cancelled mall sales for now, not yet basketball games and other games with huge audiences,concerts, etc.
    Maybe in a few days we will.

  9. Micha says:

    There are already 56 countries, as of the last count, that have reported cases of this pandemic. In the US, thousands may have already been infected but remain untracked and untested. Federal agencies tasked with public health better contain this outbreak before it really gets out of hand.

    Mike Pence is an evangelical Christian who denies and is hostile to scientific knowledge. While he was governor of Indiana, he oversaw an HIV crisis that was so severe that at its peak, 20 new cases of HIV were diagnosed every week. He is one of those who regard AIDS epidemic as God’s punishment for gays and lesbians.

    He is also a climate change denier and would have installed theocracy in the US if he will have his way.

    Now he is made the czar of a task force against this Covid outbreak.

    “As television news channels devoted wall-to-wall coverage to the coronavirus, government public health officials were nowhere to be seen. Sources told CNN that all media appearances have to now be cleared with Pence’s office. The move could deprive Americans of sober, science-based advice from some of the best public health experts in the world.”

    But what do we know, Trump seeks a ‘miracle’ as virus fears mount :

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/28/politics/donald-trump-coronavirus-miracle-stock-markets/index.html

    • NHerrera says:

      China, the second largest world economy, during the early stage, through the local officials — but now known to be known by high party leadership — tried to suppress the information on covid-19, labeling the medical doctors as rumor or fear-mongering. Now we have the US, the largest economy, its government officials behaving like this — shades indeed — of China, which Pompeo criticized for suppressing important information on covid-19. Now we may have Pence as the suppressor or massager of evidence-based or science-based information if he remains true to form especially if we add-in his unbending loyalty to Trump. His marching orders may have been: protect the stock market from negative information about the virus. [My opinion.]

    • karlgarcia says:

      Like climate change, the corona virus is said to be a hoax says you know who.

      More than 30% of Americans believe that Corona Beer is the cause of Corona Beerus acording to a survey thankfullly not by the SWS, but maybe the productikn staff of Family Feud.

  10. NHerrera says:

    These two charts from BBC may be useful here.

    The first explains why at this time even competent medical practitioners are not able to give a good one-number of the fatality ratio of the covid-19, but a range: 0.5% to 4.0%, with a best but rough guess of 1%. An important related item is a measure of the spread of the disease — the range being an average of 1.5 to 3.5 people being infected by the carrier of the virus, with a rough best guess of 2.5.

    In contrast, being better understood with a large data base, here are the numbers [fatality rate, avg number of persons infected by a sick person] for

    Spanish flu [ref 1918 epidemic] = (10%, 2)
    Seasonal flu = (0.1%, 1)
    Common cold = (0.01%, 2)

    * And from the note above, covid-19, best guess at this time = (1%, 2.5)

    The second chart gives a picture of the factors accounting for the vulnerability of those infected.

  11. karlgarcia says:

    Teleworking and tele commuting soon will be a must in Pinas.
    That also solves the traffic.
    First our infra must improve.

    • karlgarcia says:

      Improve all infra including electric, water and telco first
      before intersisland bridges.

      • sonny says:

        Karl, I believe NEDA has oversight on water resources. Guess who is chairman of the Board. None other than our favorite executive.

        • karlgarcia says:

          Neda has oversight over our whole economy.
          They are a powerful institution with no power vested in them.

        • karlgarcia says:

          To be more technical about it congress has the power of oversight, but alas they use it well that the power of the purse us left on the individual purses of some or most of them, they overlooked it.

          • karlgarcia says:

            No checks and balances, only balancing of checks.

          • sonny says:

            Thanks, Karl. Didn’t know the powerless part.

            • sonny says:

              Found this dated material (2013) on PH water resource:
              (very interesting development roadmap laid by ADB; how useful? your thoughts?)

              Click to access philippines-water-supply-sector-assessment.pdf

              • karlgarcia says:

                With get back to it, in my daily life in the place I live the traffic is hell because of a project that was reported to have no coordination between the Lgus,DPWH ,Maynilad and the homeowners associations.

                All our roads have to destroyed if we want an honest to goodness sewerage system.
                Until now a water source for metro Manila is still a big debate, to dam or not to dam.

                Desalination offers from Israel the masters of desalination are still being overlooked.

              • karlgarcia says:

                A very comprehensive study.
                As in every study, it needs money to be fully implemented.

                Rapid urbanization, population growth, climate change, environmental degradation, water is our life blood literally.

              • karlgarcia says:

                Unc,
                Allow me to share.

            • karlgarcia says:

              Actuallly all big ticket projects has to get their aproval that is a big deal, I just say they are blicked from unleashing that power with lack of personnel, being bypassed, etc.

  12. The main lesson we learned from China (and Diamond Princess) re new coronavirus is that if you herd people in one place, you invariably create more of the virus.

    So set policy wherein infected people instead shelter in place, and if worst gets worst, stay and die inside your place of residence. Though the gov’t and helpful groups should deliver food, medicine, etc. but as drop-offs, no contact.

    That’s that.

    Yesterday I went to observe Sonoran toad poison smoking ceremony. This is related to my new found interest in psychedelics. Very interesting night, as observer only not participant (i don’t think i ever will). But because the folks there did yoga, meditation and were into New Age stuff,

    I posed a question: Will smoking toad poison help your immune system, specifically new coronavirus?

    Answer: Nope (this stuff is purely for the brain cells, sure indirectly most likely it helps , healthy mind means healthy body, but it stops there).

    After that short answer is where the interesting conversation happened. I won’t bore you with details, karl. 😉 BUT,

    Two main take-aways: Deep breathing and Vibration. Two things that may or may not help avert infection or the spread thereof of the virus, but worth doing regardless IMHO.

    The non-medical presumption here based on everyones Google-based knowledge of the virus is that, unlike other virus that infect the lungs, this particular coronavirus opens shop in your lower lungs. Where it multiplies.

    Also the assumption that people don’t really use their lower part of the lungs, most breathe shallow.

    Solutions (there were others, but these two IMHO everyone here can do , no problem),

    1). Breathe in, fill your lungs, then when you think its full, fill it up some more; then breathe out slowly; repeat. ideally you should be increasing your in-take everytime, then control exhale slower than inhale. Fill your lungs to the bottom. Idea here is that you use your lower lungs, thus disrupt the virus as it takes shelter there.

    2). Then once you get comfortable with the breathing, include the OHM in your exhale. This is to cause vibration in your lungs and your body, but imagine vibrating your lower lungs. it’s the same OHM from the Beatles song ‘Across the Universe’, Jai Guru Deva Ohm. OHM your exhale, focus on the vibration, exaggerate said vibration, feel it in your lower lung.

    there you go, simple, fill your lungs and OHM.

    This may or may not help, but like i said, won’t hurt to try it. SO,

    Do it, it can’t hurt, only help.

    p.s. ~ Micha , i thought Bernie would at least be close to Biden last night? what’s your prediction for Super Tuesday?

    • The lung ‘preparation’ is superb, thanks. I’ve been doing cardiovascular to build lung strength, but I think your therapy recommendation will push beyond that.

    • Micha says:

      @LcplX

      Hillary won SCarolina in 2016 by about, something like, 50 percentage points against Sanders so it’s hardly surprising Biden carried those votes as well.

      Bernie’s strength is in the midwest and the coastal states (east and west).

      Granting there won’t be shenanigans from the Tom Perez controlled DNC like what Wasserman-Shultz did in 2016, Bernie is going to clinch the nomination and will do very well on super Tuesday. He’s polling on top in California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Utah, Vermont, Virginia, and, surprisingly, even in Texas.

      • Bernie as president would be fun to watch. I hope his heart will stand the stress. Is AOC old enough to be his VP? Hmmmmmm.

        • Thanks, Micha! makes sense.

          Joe, AOC is too young, I want her in Congress to pass more legislation like opening up psychedelics for further studies. Tulsi Gabbard should be Bernie’s choice, especially w/ her lawsuit against Hillary, she’ll be the perfect anti-establishment Dem choice.

          With Bernie’s heart , a Tulsi Gabbard as number one will make people feel good.

          NH, i’ve known of Ohm for awhile, but never really bothered being consistent with it. But i thought it genius for the coronavirus scare, it’s something to do whether it actually helps jury’s still out. But make sense to me, disrupting the part of the lung where the virus spreads.

      • Micha?!!!

        What the hell happened tonight???

        Looks like I’m voting for Trump again…

        • Micha says:

          With Butt Guy and Klob dropping out, they consolidated delegate count for Sleepy Joe but Bernie still has the overall lead.

          Wall Street Democrats are in full panic mode and are throwing everything at Bernie including the kitchen sink. This is going to be a slog down the wire. Interesting to see the next debate with only Biden, Bloomberg, and Bernie on the stage.

          As always, corrupt Establishment Democrats would rather lose to Trump than win with Bernie.

          If they continue to rig the primary, Trump is going to make mincemeat of Sleepy Joe in the general

        • Micha says:

          “On the eve of Super Tuesday, the comedy of corruption that is the Democratic primaries kicked into high gear, when Barack Obama reportedly initiated a coordinated effort — via a series of phone calls — to consolidate moderate support behind one Joe Biden.

          The former VP’s two centrist opponents – Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar – obediently suspended their campaigns and endorsed Biden almost immediately. Next, every member of the DNC’s establishment elite, donor class, and the national security sector – including war criminals John Brennan and James Comey — let it be known than Joe was their guy too.

          Judging the effectiveness of this series of strategic maneuvers ultimately depends on the DNC’s goal. If their top priority was to deeply wound the Sanders campaign, Super Tuesday was a raging success. If the Democrats were hoping to remove Donald Trump from office, they all but ensured that won’t happen now.”

          https://www.thesportsgeek.com/news/democrats-circle-the-wagons-around-joe-biden-for-super-tuesday/

          • Looks like March 15 debate is just Bernie and Biden. I know the Dems have had a gentlemans agreement on kids glove, but Bernie has to use the same attacks that Trump will eventually use, if only to show that realistically Biden’s skeletons will come to light.

            I think Super Tuesday is a legit win for the Dems, but its due partly to blinders on. If they watch FOX news, and other similar channels, the Dems would know that there’s something wicked this way comes for Biden, w/ his son in the middle of it.

            Or maybe that’s the plan, Biden takes out Bernie; then Hillary takes out Biden. Kinda like Avengers Endgame, Dr. Stranger does his circle thingy and Hillary comes out with guns blazing, thus taking out Thanos Trump.

            Thanks, Micha!

            p.s.~ I see Bill Oz is back from a very long hiatus. Welcome back!

            Los Angeles county where I’m at has now called for a state of emergency. I have lots of Vitamin C, but have since foregone Vitamin D (as per kasambahay causes diarrhea), but its been 75 degrees here and sunny, so i’ve been sunning myself everyday. Plus the Ohm breathing exercises, i’m sure the virus will take one good look at me and move on to weaker prey.

            Vitamin C i’ve upped to 1000 mg, from 500 mg. Though i also have Turmeric w/ honey for tea or coffee.

          • I think what a lot of Americans want is normalcy after several years of strident shouting at one another. Sanders may have the best policies for equalizing wealth and going green, but that is a polarization from Trump at the other end of the spectrum. Stocks blasted upward with Biden upsetting Sanders in several key states, and demolishing Warren. Biden is the old normal. He’s a likable guy, and the polls I’ve read say he will beat Trump. He’ll have the weight of the democratic establishment behind him. It won’t be Joe alone doing battle. So I’m not sure I share your conclusion that all is lost. Maybe for you, that’s true. But not mainstream America.

            • Joe,

              Glad the breathing is helping. As for me I’m experiencing , something akin to altered state of consciousness, i’ve got my eyes closed and focusing (really focusing) on the vibration. I’m not sure if it’s from the Ohm stuff, but i’m feeling a little invincible of late, thus have been going to chinese restaurants which seem now deserted here, one or two other persons maybe, but enjoying the solitude.

              Now if I become absent in the next weeks, i probably have Coronavirus.

              As for Joe Biden. Maybe you’re right, Joe, but the whole Ukraine stuff will re-surface since they skipped it during the impeachment. it’s there just waiting to be re-visited, and knowing Trump he’ll re-visit it bigly— I hope Bernie brings it up, so at least the Dems will have a fair shot at Trump, better to re-visit this episode now than later, I think. We’ll see , March 15 will be big. all or nothing.

              • The Ukraine thing pales in comparison to Trump’s dealings and statements supporting Russia, so Old Joe will be fine. He gets chippy as well as Trump does, so it would be a fun campaign.

            • Micha says:

              Most of the southern states that Biden won last night are Trump/Republican territory so he’s got no chance in the general there. We’ll most likely see a Trump repeat in the midwest and rust belt states too. Our own Lance Corporal says he will be voting for Trump if Biden is the nominee.

              Issues of corruption from Ukraine-gate will be feasted on by Don Donald – his base will be revved up charging hypocrisy.

              So no, if Democratic Establishment insist on nominating Biden, it will be 99% guaranteed Trump will get his second term.

    • NHerrera says:

      Lance, that breathing technique is also useful for those who may have a bit of an insomnia some nights. It helps me.

    • karlgarcia says:

      Noted Lcx,
      I was not in the mood the last time.
      Sorry for being cranky.

  13. popoy says:

    so sorry my bad! had this posted in the previous blog

    popoy says:
    March 2, 2020 at 9:03 am

    February 27, 2020 FAILED TO POST BECAUSE EMAIL ID hitches

    The eche bucheche of hoarse dogs barking in the dark.

    Sad, VERY SAD, almost idiotic not being able to OPERATIONALISE GNP.
    “Gross national product (GNP) is an estimate of total value of all the FINAL PRODUCTS AND SERVICES turned out in a given period by the means of production owned by a country’s residents.”

    Our farmers as producers need to produce more rice. We need FACTORIES to produce more goods, More Goods, dumbflickets (permanent plebes in economic development). We are in pridefull EXCESS of heroes in the name of SERVICES provided by LABOR in all aspects of human skills and professions to foreign countries amid SCARCITY for our own basic needs. GOODS and SERVICES in sufficiency and abundance is what the GOOD LIFE in a country is all about.

    The country might already be a resounding success in macro economics PGNP (Pinoy Gross National Plunder) which defines as the total value in USD of thievery and plunder from corruption as outputs of total services provided by members and followers of elected officials and political family dynasties in the private as well as public sector.

    In the sixties, as the country leads Asia in producing educated citizenry, there was warning in the academe: Education is not a PRE-CONDITION for National Development. Mis-education and corrupt acculturation of the youth stigmatize and vaporise their role as Hopes of the fatherland.

    So? Therefore what? During the last 15 years how much GOODS annually, did the country produced? A pittance? Forget for the moment the amount of SERVICES contributed by OFW heroes. Think, imagine how much of the total Annual General Appropriations Act in trillion pesos WENT TO CORRUPTION? 40% ?, 60 or 70% ? Insomniac Rip Van Winkle has slept for 20 years. A country can snooze for 5 scores in noodle land.

  14. karlgarcia says:

  15. karlgarcia says:

  16. karlgarcia says:

  17. karlgarcia says:

  18. karlgarcia says:

  19. josephivo says:

    Did the dramatic improvement in air quality in China save more lives than Corona killed?

    Or, how to stay balanced, absorb and evaluate all relevant information? A pity that the fact based academic analysis by a reputed scholar will come years after the crisis.

    • kasambahay says:

      josephivo, it’s common occurrence po, and almost the norm that fact based academic analysis come yrs after the crisis.

      it is in all profession that findings must be published and must pass muster of peers before then: the legions of peers tasked with quality control, and not falsehood, where every detail is checked and authenticated, all citations noted, nothing plagiarized, or segments stolen. only those painstakingly peer reviewed analysis made it to publication. and like any publications there will be corrections made, grammar and others, and the final draft gets to the publisher.

      and once okayed for publication, said article has to stay in que and wait for its turn to be published. for there may well be other articles already in the que and waiting publication as well.

      but if you want to jump the que and know publications before they are published, you can always attend forums conducted by like minded peers where they discuss theories and findings, analysis and whatnot. post forums, there is questions and answers and then smorgasbord as always. bring notebook, questioning mind and healthy dose of skepticism. no one enjoys answering questions and sharing info than academics. just be aware though that academics can be tight lipped on sensitive issues.

      or you can contact academics via email, etc. most have internet presence.

      • kasambahay says:

        p.s. it takes around 2yrs before a peer reviewed article made it to publication and found in academic journals worldwide.

      • josephivo says:

        Yap, I know. I just tried to call attention to the fact that currently all we have are just opinions or partial-, biased- and often irrelevant facts.

        And a few (nano-?)seconds into the big bang it was difficult to predict how matter would evolve. Comparing with other epidemies it seems that we are still in the flat initial stages, the slope and reach of the explosion difficult to guess. But to get a better feeling what actions to plan it would be nice to now the worst- and best case scenarios, this way one could better plan his actions as a risk taker or as a risk avoider.

        • kasambahay says:

          stay tune po and keep updating plan if you have any. and be prepared to update yet again for the only thing predictable about the virus is it’s unpredictability, so little is known of it. hard to fight an enemy you cannot see.

          this blog has plenty say po and worth noting talaga about how to keep ourselves safe vs the deadly virus. best and worst case scenarios is open to one’s imagination po, some worst than others.

          if in doubt, see your doctor and ask to be tested. I did! I’m negative! and I asked a lot of questions all the while I was at the clinic, 35minutes worth of questions and answers. plus, I got prescription for painkiller (just in case), freebie hand sanitizer, few face masks and ph number to call in case of emergency. doctor took all my baseline data too, in case I get sick in the future. cheers.

          • popoy says:

            Posted in Facebook:

            14 days quarantine for COVID-19

            Here’s what you will need to survive a 14-day coronavirus home quarantine

            Your checklist should include alcohol-based hand sanitizer, medicines and non-perishable food items.

            By Milton Canadian Champion

            Fri., Feb. 28, 2020timer1 min. read
            Imagine being stuck at home in quarantine due to the new coronavirus or some other pandemic. It could happen. Are you ready?

            According to health officials, this is what you will need:
            • Alcohol-based hand sanitizer that’s between 60 and 90 per cent alcohol
            • Medicines for headaches, coughs and fever
            • Thermometer
            • Anti-diarrheal medication
            • Drinks with electrolytes TO CONTINUE . . . .
            Beyond that, also keep the following in mind:
            • Have a supply of your prescription medication ready to avoid possible delays during an outbreak or pandemic.
            • Get a couple of weeks’ supply of non-perishable food items, such as canned meats, fish, soups, beans and vegetables. Don’t forget bottled water as well.
            • Think about your pets as well, and make sure to have enough pet food and litter.
            • Keep a stock of household necessities, such as soap, shampoo, toothpaste, toilet paper and more.
            • Keep some cash on hand in the event of an emergency.
            01 032020 March 01, 2020

            Addendum From popoy = fully working fully charged cellphones, laptops, TV.

            • kasambahay says:

              popoy, thanks from me, also.

              • popoy says:

                You are welcome guys. Kaya lang, marami sa mga Pinoy eh walalng pambili. Kailangan provide sana ng gobiernosa mga afectadong lugar.

              • kasambahay says:

                necessity is mother of inventions po, popoy and dont worry too much about those on self quarantine na walang pambili ng mga gamit. they can sanitize their hands simply by washing them with soap and water. for them to stack up on food supply simply means stacking up on rice which they do regularly anyway. clean water to drink, sa probinsya there’s water in the well, bottled water in the cities. they can also stack up on dried fish, daing, and salted fish like “ginamos”. may kamote, mais, gulay at may manok sa bakuran. I think very survivable yang self quarantine.

                those quarantined on order of the govt have supplies given to them plus accommodation and medical care provided.

  20. NHerrera says:

    Re-Democratic Candidate Sanders and the times the American live in.

    In a Washington Post article, there is a revealing chart which shows the median male income of a typical middle-income male worker with a family of four versus the major expenses of the family (housing, health care, transportation, education).

    “His income in 1985 can cover these major expenses on 30 weeks of salary. The excess being used for food, clothing and entertainment, etc. By 2018 it took 53 weeks. Which is a problem, there being 52 weeks in a year.” This in spite of the growth of US GDP and the stock market indices.

    That, I believe, may substantially explain the attraction to Sanders Campaign Juggernaut as well as Trump’s. That is, their promises to their supporters.

    • NHerrera says:

      As one wrote, Sanders and Trump are two side of the same coin.

    • NHerrera says:

      And, by the way, there is nothing like a cartoon to bring home a point. Here is my cartoon of the day. Nice sketch, nice color as well.

      • karlgarcia says:

        Sonny mentioned Yurivo, when dud they stop making Chevrolets in Cebu?

        • sonny says:

          As far as I know, the assembly plant was in Manila/Quezon City area only. Cebu is new to me. I remember the models I saw: ’55, ’56, maybe ’57. So I’m guessing, their arrangement with GM was gone by ’59 or earlier. My classmates who were into cars have since passed. Another car hobbyist classmate is incommunicado to our reunions. Speaking of manufacturing, one classmate started as chem engr to an IBM supplier. After some years he went independent and set up his own metal finishing shop. Now he is a supplier of car seat-belts. My calculation, his company grosses $35-50 million a year. His hobby is collecting cars and he hobnobs with the likes of Jay Leno, also car collector. Lesson: big difference between a society with an industrial culture & infrastructure & viable government and one without. IMO.

          • karlgarcia says:

            Thanks, unc.

          • karlgarcia says:

            https://www.automology.com/cars-made-in-the-philippines-really/

            Were you aware that the first-generation Chevrolet Camaros were made here? General Motors was quite the assembly powerhouse here back in the day, producing not just Chevrolets but also Buicks, Pontiacs, and Opels, just to name a few. These GM products were made by Yutivo Sons Hardware Corporation.

            Other GM cars made in the Philippines were the Buick Electra, Pontiac Parisienne, Vauxhall Victor and Viva, Opel Rekords and a couple of Holdens, with the Torana being one of the most popular models.

            • sonny says:

              Thanks for the info, Neph.

              I got to hitch rides w/ friends & classmates who owned Electras, Le Sabres, Opels, Holdens, Vauxhalls, biggest thrill was ride on Chrysler with push-button transmission. Going to school walking through school parking lots was like an auto show. 🙂

              • sonny says:

                P.S.
                Back then too, there were two kinds of taxis, the 15 & 5 (Toyota Corona) and the 20 & 10 (Mercedes Benz, et al). VW Beetles were assembled(?) by DMG Motors (Guevarra). I think the Toyota Corollas were marketed in the PH to gather test data for its road-worthiness.

              • karlgarcia says:

                Wow! Me too I just enjoy looking at the cars of the neighbors until they rev their engines at midnight, I so hate that.

              • popoy says:

                Ancient as I am, I remember the days seeing textile factories in Metro Manila and provincial environs as labor queueing in 3 shifts to enter textile factories. What happened to them? Has BOI in DOTI started some kind of virus? What kind of virus infected industrialization and manufacturing in the glorious fifties and early sixties?

              • popoy says:

                Karl and etcetera, forgive me, if I may, in the good old days living in affluent or not so classy neighborhood waxes nostalgic even best forgotten memories.

              • karlgarcia says:

                I recall you spent your youth in Makati.
                I guess the garments went to Bangladesh.

              • sonny says:

                @popoy

                … then Plaza Miranda bombing happened; then martial law; then marcos; then sh*t hit the fan! before these events the Constitution worked “fine” …

  21. Jun Buelva says:

    Joe, don’t you think the virus is only more menacing in the cold clime countries?

    • As I understand it, the virus prefers cool temperatures. But countries in warm climates are getting outbreaks, Singapore being an example.

      • kasambahay says:

        guys, the anomaly of cold clime is that people stay indoor, close all windows and doors to keep cold out, huddle close together around heaters and fireplaces and stay under thick and warm blankets. as well, room temperature is kept constantly warm at around 18-20 degree celsius. and with all that people in close proximity with one another would provide better environs for the virus to spread at leisure, thrive and propagate.

        maybe, it’s best if we keep open mind about cold climate. in alaska, the inuuits (eskimos) are not dropping dead, same with scandinavia and the antarctica.

        instead in warm iran and italy, coronavirus is incubating and spreading with gusto, their death toll is rising.

        • Bill In Oz says:

          Italy & Iran are freezing not warm !

          I think the low disease level in ‘warm’ countries is due to sunlight exposure & vitamin D3 production.

          Gossip going around in Wintery USA says take lots of Vitamin D3 capsules to ward off this disease…..20,000 IU a day !

          But maybe in the Philippines the tropical sun builds immunity via Vitamin D production in the skin.

          • karlgarcia says:

            Hi Bill!
            With Edgar gone for the Oz way of doing things, I am glad that you are back.

            • Bill In Oz says:

              I have been busy Karl the last year or so. Mostly via Facebook now admin’ing a couple of groups. One about weather & Climate; another about our local freeway as a way of improving the safety & management. Mostly at night as my lady now works 4-5 nights week nightshift in an aged care center…
              But the C19 Virus disease is having a big impact globally..I hope the Philippines can escape the chaos that has happened elsewhere..Like South Korea where my lady’s sister lives in Seoul…Ummmm !

              • karlgarcia says:

                I see, your inlaw is in SoKor.
                I now use twitter, before I was avoiding it like the plague.
                It was just fear of the unknown
                This blog is still like home to me.

          • karlgarcia says:

            Winter 2019 in Northern Hemisphere began on
            Sunday, 22 December
            and ends on
            Friday, 20 March 2020
            All dates are in Iran Time.

  22. NHerrera says:

    COVID-19 UPDATE

    Among the virus update, these to me is remarkable:

    – South Korea, Italy and Iran seem to further confirm their being the secondary epicenters of the virus;
    – the scope of country coverage of the confirmed cases has extended to 70 countries from some 50 only a week or so ago [with poor medical and contact tracing facilities in these additional poorer countries, the prospect is not encouraging];
    – the US seems to me an interesting case with a jump from 88 to 103 in the official confirmed cases, and a jump of related deaths from 2 to 6 in just one day.

    On the US case, as in the case of Iran, there seem to be a case of un-accounted for infected cases. From the official numbers above, the fatality rate is 5.8%. If one makes the assumption of the commonly accepted rough fatality rate of 2%, the confirmed cases — including the un-accounted ones — may be about 300 rather than only 103.

    • karlgarcia says:

      Anything on Indonesia?
      What about Vietnam?

    • NHerrera says:

      Some portions of the article in the link below seems repetitive to read, having read a lot by now, but the article gives a comprehensive view to what has to be done. The article from NYT is titled:

      How to Confront the Coronavirus at Every Level

      • kasambahay says:

        good read po, thanks, nherrera. there is enough billionaire philantrophists in this world, I would like to see them donate money for virus research and for vaccination vs coronavirus to be made available, soonest.

    • caliphman says:

      Jeebus. Ever heard of Sampling error? 50 of the suspected cases and 5 of the deaths occurred in a facility for the elderly in Kirkland, Washington.

      • karlgarcia says:

        Additional link to confirm.

        It says here two were not linked to COVID before, and now they are included in the tally.

        https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/03/us-coronavirus-deaths-climb-to-9-as-washington-state-confirms-new-fatalities.html

        Washington state health officials on Tuesday identified three new coronavirus fatalities, including two patients who died on Feb. 26 and weren’t previously linked to COVID-19, bringing the total number of deaths in the U.S. to nine. 
        The two patients who died that day were affiliated with the Life Care Center of Kirkland, where several residents have fallen ill and at least three others have died. One of the patients, a female resident in her 80s, died in her family home. The other patient, a 54-year-old man, was transferred to the Harborview Medical Center in Seattle from Life Care on Feb. 24 and had underlying medical conditions, the hospital said in a statement.

        That brings the total number of deaths in the state and across the U.S. to nine. The total number of confirmed cases in Washington state is now 27, up from 18 on Monday. The state Department of Health said 231 people are being monitored by public health officials.
        “This is a very fluid, fast-moving situation as we aggressively respond to this outbreak,” Dr. Jeff Duchin, health officer for Seattle & King County public health, said in a statement. “People with suspected or confirmed exposure to COVID-19 should reach out to their healthcare provider. As public health professionals we really appreciate clinicians on the front lines of patient care and they are critical to this response.”
        The Life Care Center of Kirkland, a skilled nursing care facility, has become the source of a potential outbreak.
        At least five deaths in the U.S. have been traced back to Life Care, according to Washington state and local health officials. On Saturday, local health officials said about 50 residents and employees of the nursing care facility outside of Seattle were ill with “respiratory symptoms or hospitalized with pneumonia or other respiratory conditions of unknown cause” and were being tested for COVID-19.
        There are now at least 108 confirmed cases of the virus in the U.S., according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and nine deaths. 

        • karlgarcia says:

          Only 1 guy spread it in Washington?

          https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/03/washington-state-risks-seeing-explosion-in-coronavirus-without-dramatic-action-new-analysis-says/

          The genetic sequences of patients in the Seattle-King County region suggest the virus has been circulating there since about mid-January, when the first U.S. patient — a man who returned from Wuhan — was diagnosed, Bedford wrote in the analysis, published online.

          • caliphman says:

            In a nutshell, the Life Care situation shows the failure of Trump, the CDC, and the US CV containment and isolation efforts in dealing with the crisis. The need for massive testing of those who have come in contact with suspected and confirmed virus carriers and not only those traveling from CV hotbeds has long been evident. This virus is ten times deadlier than flue with estimates of 10 percent mortality among the elderly and those with preexisting health issues. Those are ghastly numbers and in line with the 2928 Spanish flu when 500 million were in fected and 50 million succumbed to it.

            • karlgarcia says:

              Thanks! To think that a few days ago, Trump was saying that CV is a hoax and it is just being politicized by the Dems.

  23. popoy says:

    May be something will turn out and be written on the SES (socio-economic status) of unluckily infected or suspected accidental carriers of COVID-19 from one country to another. Ethnicity is starting to creep in the news updates.

  24. NHerrera says:

    THOUGHT OF THE DAY

    My irreverent thought of the day: the US stock market panics; the Fed panics with its rate cut; the stock market panics some more.

    *I am being flippant. In market speak, it has already factored in the expected emergency rate cut by the Fed. That done, the market is back to considering its concerns before the Monday substantial positive whipsaw.

    Besides, covid-19 has not yet learned to play the stock market. 🙂

  25. Bill In Oz says:

    Putting in an Australian angle on this : I suggest that another reason why the Philippines has escaped this epidemic so far, is that there are few Iranians who travel to the Philippines.

    Here is Oz we have a sizeable Iranian community and many went home over the holidays and brought it back here to Australia.

    Unfortunately our dumbnut government did not impose any quarantine restrictions on Iranians coming here until last Sunday ( 29/2/2012 ) roughly 2 weeks to late.

    So now having fended off the Chinese virus disease threat, we are blossoming with Iranian sourced one.

  26. Bill In Oz says:

    PS : And infected Italians & South Koreans are still welcome here. No quarantine restrictions yet. Government only listens to the tourist industry and the airlines who need customers !

  27. popoy says:

    is blog encore useful? Nah if it is not NBA instant slowmo replay.

    popoy says:
    March 3, 2020 at 6:09 pm

    May be something will turn out and be written on the SES (socio-economic status) of unluckily infected or suspected accidental carriers of COVID-19 from one country to another. Ethnicity is starting to creep in the news updates.

    • karlgarcia says:

      I know it would seem harsh to quarantine Chinese from Wuhan and nearby and Iraninuans, but how can you at least have a way to prevent the spread?

      • kasambahay says:

        quarantine has been done since the beginning of time as way of containing disease, lepers sent to leper colonies, etc, and contact kept to minimum.

        containment and quarantine seem to slow the spread of disease until such a time a safe vaccine is created and made available to all.

        been discussed here po, ways of preventing spread of disease among others: using hand sanitizers, keeping hands away from face, avoiding crowded places, wearing suitable face masks, keeping healthy, etc, and most of all kuno, not to panic. cheers.

  28. popoy says:

    DIPLOMATIC Tit for tat; “Ideological Prejudice” tit for tat, look, who from both titters tatters is the one complaining.

    In 1946 for one whole year as 7-year old Grade One, everyday I saw this posted on our classroom wall: Do not do unto others what you don’t want others do unto you. Today in 2020, for Grade one pupils only three words will suffice : TIT FOR TAT.

    https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/beijing-responds-after-trump-administration-restricts-chinese-media-outlets-in-us/ar-BB10Ik5y?ocid=spartandhp

    • popoy says:

      This is the kind of happening needing TIT for TAT that’s acceptable (I hope) in the Society of Honor.

      https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/politics/justin-trudeau-surprise-guest-at-citizenship-ceremony-in-nova-scotia/ar-BB10HgCo?ocid=spartandhp

      • popoy says:

        More? Immigrants are like water, they seek their own levels. But lots of things happen to water as it flows to its higher natural level.

        • popoy says:

          More? Don’t want any MORE in this thread anymore? This is the last then.

          In 1956, UP Los Banos (then UPCA) was proud to have the only electron microscope in RP which can see viruses (proteins) that can not be seen in ordinary microscope. If the common cold is caused by a virus, why is there no cold vaccine when FLU also caused by a virus, have a FLU vaccine?

          If humans like some animal specie by nature have virus in their bodies and are virus (protein) carriers, do they need ONLY catalyst virus (like COVID-19) to effect natural population attrition? Are deaths caused by COVID-19 considered deaths caused by natural causes? More? No more na already.

          • karlgarcia says:

            160 or more strains of the rhinovirus are the main culprit for the unsuccessful attempts for a vaccine.

            https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/why-havent-we-cured-the-common-cold-yet/

          • karlgarcia says:

            What does it mean to die of ‘natural causes’?

            It might not seem to mean much at all. But when a death certificate says a person’s death was “natural,” it is really ruling out the involvement of external causes. The person did not take their own life and they were not killed by somebody else or in an accident such as a car crash or drug overdose.

          • sonny says:

            🙂

            Fascinating instrument, re: electron microscope. Had a chance to watch this microscope and examined specimens at 50,000x magnification. This instrument (SEM, scanning electron microscope) can examine both organic and inorganic species. Awesome preparation of objects to be examined: conductive materials are standard, non-conductive materials have to be rendered conductive by spraying metallic vapors or carbon vapors over the specimen so the microscope will work, the instrument works via electricity. Operations were strictly via specialist/technicians. But this was once upon a time in my technical life … (nostalgic sigh)

        • karlgarcia says:

          Your tittering and tattering means that Canada is less prejudiced?

          • karlgarcia says:

            The above link addressed to Micha is exactly that accusing each other of prejudism.
            It means extreme prejudgement.

  29. NHerrera says:

    We now know that the minor epicenters of covid-19 are in South Korea, Iran and Italy.

    Here is a picture from NYT of the situation in the US with 153 confirmed cases and 12 deaths (11 in Washington State and 1 in California) to date:

    https://static01.nyt.com/images/2020/03/03/us/coronavirus-us-cases-map-promo-1583277425489/coronavirus-us-cases-map-promo-1583277425489-threeByTwoSmallAt2X-v3.png?quality=75&auto=webp&disable=upscale

    • karlgarcia says:

      Whoa! Yesterday the tally was 5 for Washington State.

      • NHerrera says:

        Correction: As of 2020-03-05 11:15 Manila Time, number of deaths in the US is only 11 (10 in Washington State, and one in California.) And the number of cases is 59.

      • karlgarcia says:

        Correction to moi
        I misread my comment and it was 9 deaths as of my comment above.(somewhere up there)

    • NHerrera says:

      One has to click the link to see the map. It sort of brings to my mind the super-something primaries for the Democratic Presidential Candidates.

  30. Micha says:

    World Health Organization says coronavirus death rate is 3.4% globally, higher than previously thought, making it worse than the Spanish flu which killed an estimated 17 to 50 million.

    Modern medicine and modern containment method might prevent such scary outcomes but, as with the impending climate crisis, there’s no sense of urgency from those who’s supposed to be in charge.

    • NHerrera says:

      Micha, below is a link indicating the mortality range (10% – 20%) of the Spanish Flu. I quote the first paragraph of that link:

      The global mortality rate from the 1918/1919 pandemic is not known, but it is estimated that 10% to 20% of those who were infected died. With about a third of the world population infected, this case-fatality ratio means that 3% to 6% of the entire global population died. Influenza may have killed as many as 25 million in its first 25 weeks. Older estimates say it killed 40–50 million people while current estimates say 50—100 million people worldwide were killed. This pandemic has been described as “the greatest medical holocaust in history” and may have killed more people than the Black Death.

      http://influenzavirusnet.com/1918-flu-pandemic/mortality.html

      • Micha says:

        “It is estimated that one third of the global population was infected (by Spanish flu), and the World Health Organization estimates that 2–3% of those who were infected died (case-fatality ratio).”

        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu#Around_the_globe

        With the absence of accurate data, estimates vary of course. and it’s largely unimportant to dither on comparisons. The overarching need at the moment is to contain what is turning out to be a global pandemic.

        • NHerrera says:

          The overarching need at the moment is to contain what is turning out to be a global pandemic.

          I agree. This is “dithering” but I still cannot get over the reference to WHO saying 3.4% mortality with reference to covid-19; and the same WHO saying that the mortality of Spanish Flu is 2% – 3%. But further than this last statement, I sayeth not.

  31. NHerrera says:

    The worldwide covid-19 situation and its impact on our prized GDP contributor, our OFWs, is elaborated in this Inquirer Editorial. Indeed if the infection situation worsens, it will be quite a “pain” first of all to our OFWs and their families, and secondly, to our economy.

    https://opinion.inquirer.net/127817/filipino-jobs-on-the-line

  32. Erik says:

    Did Bill Gates & World Economic Forum Predict Coronavirus Outbreak? An Inside Look May Shock You!

    Corona Patent No. US10130701B2
    Owner name: THE PIRBRIGHT INSTITUTE, UNITED KINGDOM

    • I don’t know why y’all are putting so much effort into this blog to sow intrigue, in the case of the video link you dropped here, and which I have removed, claims Bill Gates was complicit in designing the coronavirus.

      That’s not what this blog is about. It is a discussion forum about the Philippines.

  33. NHerrera says:

    This note is an academic one which I wish to share with TSH.

    It concerns the Case Fatality Rate (CFR) of the 1918 Spanish Flu. Here are the bases of my notes, taken from the literature on the subject:

    – 1918 estimated world population: 1.8 billion
    – 500 million estimated Spanish Flu infections
    – 50 million estimated to have died from the SF

    From the above:

    CFR = 10% (= 50/500)
    MR (Mortality Rate, based on entire population) = 2.8% (= 50/1800)

    In contrast WHO reports, from the results of Chinese confirmed cases and associated deaths, that the CFR of covid-19 is 3.4%. I note that some from CDC and other health experts dispute this number, because although the numerator — the deaths — may be accepted, they believe the “effective” confirmed cases may be understated, so the CFR is likely to be lower. CDC’s Fauci estimates it be 2%.

  34. karlgarcia says:

    I think with the suspected local transmission, we may be no longer virus free.

  35. Bill In Oz says:

    Maybe COVID disease cases are being diagnosed wrongly as Dengue Fever infections ?
    New study from Singapore says this :
    https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/warning-singapore-study-shows-that-covid-19-patients-could-be-misdiagnosed-for-dengue-due-to-false-positive-in-dengue-serological-tests

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