Manila meltdown. Suicide city.
Never has a city of so many millions so misread an election.
National Capital Region (NCR) residents want change in the 2016 presidential election. They do not want continuity. They do not want a continuation of the current way. They are fed up and in a mood to punish.
Many of the people in that “mood” have jobs. BPO call agents, mall clerks, taxi drivers, police, construction workers, bankers, butchers, bakers and the candlestick maker. Educated people, in the main. Some 90% of them want change . . .
Woe to them, and to us. Woe to the mood of Manila, perhaps the most classic self-punishing meltdown of all time.
Residents blame government for their frustration, for the traffic and the poor electricity and lousy Facebook connection. They hold that DOTC Secretary Abaya is the culprit, public enemy number one. Candidate Roxas is number two. He represents “more of the same.”
They are right that Government is the culprit. I don’t know about Abaya. They are flat-out wrong about Roxas.
The maniacal Manila meltdown is when residents prefer a murderous dictator to stability and growth. When change is seen as a solution.
But is not.
Lots of people are watching. Closely. Investors are watching. And leaders of other governments are watching. They see. They know.
Manila residents are reading the situation wrong. They have it as about wrong as thinking people can get.
Manila residents are right in one sense. The government IS the cause of the problems. But NOT by being incompetent. The national government is the cause of the problems by being COMPETENT. By doing what they were elected to do.
- By running things better than they have ever been run before. Honestly. Productively.
- By operating a stable, growing, multi-dimensional economy that investors have confidence in.
- By building roads and airports that prior administrations neglected to build.
- By operating steadily and maturely against the wind of criticism from political opponents, crooks, leftists and media operators who are not interested in the nation’s well-being, but in their own profits.
- By making mistakes, learning and continuing to push for the well-being of Filipinos at home and around the world.
Media portray Manila as ever in crisis. When Manila is thriving.
Manila is more vibrant, modern and successful than it has ever been in the history of the Philippines. Just look at that skyline. At the new cars. At all the people with real homes instead of shacks. Look at all the jobs!!
Investors . . . very differently than Manila’s frustrated residents . . . LOVE what they see. They LOVE stability. They worship predictability and steadiness. They like to see congestion because it means the city is vibrant, growing, working . . . NOT DEAD IN THE WATER.
Investors hate change. They hate risk and uncertainty. They love growth, and the confidence that they can earn a good return on their investment.
When a radical change artist, a “strong man”, is elected, do you know what those investors are going to do?
Do you know what will happen to the nation’s prized investment grade rating?
Back to junk.
It is not what that “strong man” will do or will not do that matters. It is the FEAR of what he will do that matters. The lack of confidence, the lack of predictability. The lack of assurance that, if investors invest, they will make money.
Better to invest in Viet Nam or Myanmar than into the unknown.
Frankly, I wonder why Manila residents need a strong man to fill their lives with satisfaction anyhow. It doesn’t seem well thought out to me. I mean, a womanizing dirt mouth or an economist!! How hard is that to figure out? Really!
But I digress . . .
These are the facts of what good government produces, in the eyes of investors. The people with money. The people making the jobs happen:
The drivers of these trend lines are CONFIDENCE, smart financial management and steady growth. It started when President Aquino took over. And for six years, the nation has had the kind of stable, productive good governance that investors respect.
As we can see, what goes up can also go down, as it did under President Arroyo from 2003 to 2006.
An autocratic, unpredictable, flip-flopping strong man president would interject risk far greater than anything brought in by President Arroyo. That kind of change brings in fear, not confidence.
Voting for change may make the baker and the butcher happy. They have punished Abaya and the other people they think are behind their troubles.
But as certain as the storms are coming, so, too, will Manila melt down . . . and the credit rating chart step sharply down . . . under a “strong man” presidency.
Uncertainly is a frightful monster to investors.
And economic collapse would not be pretty.
A lot of people would lose their jobs.
And crime would increase. No matter what was promised.
I hope the candlestick maker can at least keep his job.
He is one of the 10% who “gets it”. Stable foundations matter. You can’t build without them.