We will lose all of the West Philippine Sea

bajo-de-masinloc-philstar

Apparently ceded to China, a valued fishing ground and shelter for Zambales fishermen. Drilling by China may be underway now. [Photo source: Philstar]

By Andrew Lim

President Duterte does not understand leverage

Don’t blink, the entire West Philippine Sea and its resources will soon be gone. China’s nine-dash line map will be applied, and the fruit of Duterte’s pivot will be economic concessions that may appear substantial on surface but are actually a miniscule percentage of the value of what we will be giving up.

It will be a lopsided trade-off, with the Philippines on the losing end. And it will be irreversible.

Here’s why:

A word we first encounter in school – leverage.

The West Philippine Sea, its air and sea routes and its resources is not leverage – it is the prize; the pot at the end of the rainbow. It is what all the nations embroiled in this issue want to access.

Leverage is economic might, military might, technological prowess, court rulings, world opinion, strong alliances – what you can use to improve your position as you negotiate to protect your interests – in this case the West Philippine Sea.

Duterte does not have much of it; China has all of it. The arbitral ruling is leverage only if you do not go bilateral. The military alliance with the US is leverage, but Duterte chooses to side with China and drive the US away.

Duterte has drum beat “independent foreign policy”. But he seeks money from China at every turn these days – from drug rehab facilities to railways in Mindanao to development money for Basilan.

(A side note on how outdated Duterte is on foreign policy aside from mistaking the FA-50 aircraft as coming from the US instead of South Korea: in a recent speech, he made reference to the submarine-launched ballistic Poseidon missiles of the US in case World War 3 breaks out. Poseidon was phased out long ago in the early nineties and replaced with the Trident missile system.)

Duterte is indeed a “provincial executive” as described by former President Ramos.

Duterte is mad at drugs. He is mad at the US and the West for its concern on human rights but what does he do? He runs to China and Russia, egregious in its own human rights violations, suppression of dissent and use of drugs (for foreign policy, Olympic doping).

Principles do matter, no matter the contradictions you see in a country’s history.

China’s assistance in the construction of drug rehab facilities actually makes it an end to end, seamless integrated operation for them since there is evidence that the Chinese government, through its intelligence services, is covertly supporting the manufacture of illegal drugs in its territory.

Knowing Duterte’s mad man attitude to drugs, they can calibrate the flow of drugs into the country, depending on how cooperative we are with the resources of the West Phililippine Sea.

When Duterte complains that “all the big fish are in China”, the Chinese are probably nodding, “and we supervise them, too.”

The business concessions Duterte will likely bring home after his visit to Beijing – opening of the Chinese market to fruit exports, investments, railways for Mindanao, allowing Filipino fishermen to go back may look huge but it is extremely, extremely small compared to the economic value of the West Phil sea. Even if you peg the potential increased Chinese business ties in billions, the West Philippine Sea is still much much more than that. It is multiples of that.

Needless to say, business ties benefit both parties. But the West Philippine Sea is ours, and it rightfully, wholly belongs to us alone. The aquatic resources are renewable and capable of benefitting several generations of Filipinos.

Business ties with China can be cut abruptly, if relations turn sour. But once China starts exploiting the area for its resources, it cannot be reversed anymore, short of declaring a shooting war.

At the outset, China will play the nice guy, rolling out the red carpet – facilitate business to business partnerships, soft loans, infrastructure projects; it might even roll up a few illegal drug manufacturers to show its support for Duterte’s obsession with the drug wars.

At the right point in time in the future, (say after 2-3 years) China will then turn the screws on us, applying the nine-dash line map, and start exploitation of the West Philippine Sea. When this point arrives, the Philippines will have absolutely no more leverage to contest, oppose or reverse whatever China wants to do. The arbitral ruling is no more; nor is the alliance with the West.

Where does Duterte turn at this point? Can he rely on China’s sense of fairness and equity to obtain our just share? At this point, who dictates what?

China is wrapping Duterte and the country around its finger, deftly calibrating all its options to leverage its position- and Duterte, (egged on by local Maoists he has empowered via appointments to the Cabinet and a peace negotiation that will likely benefit the Maoists more) is powerless to counter it.

Duterte, for all his bluster and big words, is actually enabling China to get all that its dark heart desires, and the losers will be the entire Filipino nation and the generations to come. Duterte is brutal with the Filipino people, but he cannot touch the Chinese.

Say goodbye to the West Philippine Sea.

Comments
328 Responses to “We will lose all of the West Philippine Sea”
  1. ang langit ay pupula, sa timyas ng paglaya..

    o sa mas masahol pang pagka-alipin?

  2. madlanglupa says:

    Two words to describe the next five years: Pax Sinica, and no, this isn’t our peace. This is the peace for the plutocrats where they’ll be reaping clean profits in either way, whether legal or illicit, so that they’ll get the latest gold-plated toilet and show it off to the world.

  3. Adrian says:

    I wonder what’s Duterte’s long term plan. Is he that good playing with US and China? That at the end of the day we still have wps and at the same time no longer dependent with US militarily? Or is he just an egomaniac that when offended turn the tables against you whatever the costs are?

    • His long-term plan might be a Duterte national political dynasty under Chinese patronage.

      Something which Marcos also hoped for under US patronage, which was dropped because it no longer was American policy to support “their SOBs” like before.

      • Adrian says:

        Makes sense. This partly explains unnecessary tirades against the West. If he only wants an “independent foreign policy”, there is no need to antagonize existing allies.

    • madlanglupa says:

      > I wonder what’s Duterte’s long term plan.

      That’s the mystery, despite that he’s at the age when a position of this size would be extremely stressful (most strongmen start at their 40s-50s), and that he claims to be very austere than any of the candidates he defeated. But then, if it’s *not* him who would be reaping what he sowed, it’s someone else who’s going to benefit. Remember, those who bankrolled his campaign aren’t just fans, but also GMA and Marcos cronies, and possibly that Big White Elephant in the room.

      • Adrian says:

        Or he may have already brokered a deal with future leaders who subscribe to the same ideology as him.

      • Ybarra Crisostomo says:

        He’s longterm plan? Reformation. Independent foreign policy is the most talk as of the moment. But it doest mean we will destroy alliance with the USA and became like the kind of North Korea, it is destroying our dependency with them. USA wants us to think that we need their military might so they can hold our throats as if they are our savior. Take this, if we fight for the Panatag Shoal we will surely need USA incase it will go bloody. And it will surely go bloody as China will never surrender that without a figth. The best coarse of action is that to “be friend” the bully. This is to avoid war and to gain mutual benefits in the form of joint exploration. We will be trade partners with China. China really need “allies” and we will filll it. Afterall, they are just beside us. Are you afraid that China will not share with us? They will, they need “allies”. They will spoil us for a time. But we know that this spoiling will not last forever. It’s up to us to take advantage of this.

        • madlanglupa says:

          I would subscribe to Deng Xiaoping’s foreseen warning to the UN of what is to come if China ever becomes a swaggering imperial power. Also, the growing gap between the wealthy and the have-nots in the Middle Kingdom may one day instigate a bigger problem for the CCP mandarins, more than Tienanmen Square in 1989.

          • Pabloinnasidman says:

            Is it not almost inevitable that an increasingly assertive China will eventually encapsulate Philippines into its sphere of control? Already most businesses have strong ties with China, interlectual ties are strengthening fast. The only uncertain parameter is the internal development within China, but if that is continuing more or less in the same direction, Philippines will become part of the Chinese system, in whatever format that might take. China will need Philippine resources within the next decades and is already scheming to get at them. As such, the current happenings might change the timetable with a few years, but the end result will be the same. Time therefore could be better spend to consider what format would acceptable and how to get there.

            • Would you please inform members of this blog of your nationality, location, and interest in Philippine affairs. I know of few Filipinos who advocate for a Chinese connection other than those who see personal gain coming from it. What are the intellectual ties you cite, exactly? I know Jollibee has decided to reduce its capital investment in China by half.

              • Pabloinnasidman says:

                West European and I live here about 30 years. Work as volunteer to improve municipal systems. Have noticed that “native Filipino’s” (well, let’s say those who have their roots here before 1900) are increasingly being marginalized while the businesses and much of the advanced trainings are increasingly in the hands of the Chinese minority who work harder, have better business ethics and access to much more capital while the “native Filipino’s” drift into a Polish Situation. Does this answer your questions, Sir?

              • It does. Thanks. We sometimes get Chinese trolls who pursue an agenda not unlike what you have proposed.

                The naturalized FilipinoChinese businessmen here are not unlike the Chinese who run Singapore, originally outcasts from strife in China, now fully engaged in the Philippines. They are Filipino in loyalty, but could certainly be enticed to align with China for good business deals. The government’s headlong rush to join with China seems to me to betray the promise of the nation as a sovereign state, but if Filipinos don’t see it that way, who am I to complain? I don’t think China cares for native Filipinos as anything but an exploitable resource. If that makes lives better than 20 more years of earnest capitalism, great. I’m skeptical.

            • madlanglupa says:

              If China and its plutocrats should stop acting as a social-imperialist power seeking riches and knowledge in the name of, and for the benefit of the state, and start acting as a responsible state acting on sincerity, then we can deal with them.

              But that is remotely happening.

            • Ric says:

              First off, I am part-Chinese myself, and Chinese in the Philippines are not the same as Chinese on the mainland, nor do they consider themselves to be the same. There are exception but the majority are loyal to the Philippines, or at least indifferent to the issue. Many dislike the PRC’s government, and in some cases the people as well – a Tsinoy friend of mine calls mainland Chinese uncivilized, which is a position that is difficult to disagree with once you’ve seen how mainlanders behave. Indeed many overseas Chinese would agree.

              Second, it’s simply not true that Chinese work harder than Filipinos. Better business sense probably. Better at gaming the system, yes. Better at contractualizing their employees, definitely. And these advantages are self-perpetuating, as they have more capital, enabling them to get even more capital, and so on.

              I always find it a little tiresome when some Chinese claim that Chinese are discriminated against in the Philippines. If they really were being discriminated against we wouldn’t allow them to control 70% of the economy.

        • “USA wants us to think that we need their military might so they can hold our throats as if they are our savior.” Source of this claim? I would imagine it is purely speculative on your part, and therefore a political statement in pursuit of some agenda. You would have to provide evidence of US extraneous intent to have this claim be believed, or factored into thinking. We have quite enough lies and deceits and inventions about without adding to the mix.

          Indeed, the Philippines is free to have any alliance she chooses. Only the Philippines can claim the gains or bear the costs from decisions gone good or bad. The argument is not over that right, but about the potential gains and losses.

          • Ybarra Crisostomo says:

            Speculation. As history books suggest, US save the Philippines from the Spaniards, actually Spain sold us to US. US forces save Philippines from the Japanese because we are their brown brothers, but actually they need are strategic location to effectively bomb Japan. What more? Assuming USA defended us against China on the WPS it would be US being the International Police and the protector of the weak nation. As an independent nation that we are trying to portrait, we will not ask USA for military help, we believe we can settle it on our own. We don’t want that “utang-na-loob”.

            With regards to the argument on the potential gain or losses, we could point out investments from China as one of the gain, also, the joint exploration with China on the WPS. The losses I could think of is that we will be sharing our natural blessing with someone else.

            • Okay, all speculation. Thanks. Any discussion would be political argument, not aimed at understanding. I find those absolutely fruitless.

              Please indicate your nationality, location and interest in the Philippines. Thanks.

              • Ybarra Crisostomo says:

                Just to point out my observation that the articles are really educational, but the most of the comments are political in nature, even propaganda.

              • When you identify propaganda, perhaps you might point it out. It seems to me that people arrive here to discuss issues earnestly, and I don’t appreciate you suggesting otherwise.

              • Ybarra Crisostomo says:

                Propaganda. Look at the comments just below this.

              • Okay, I fear we are getting off to a bad start here, Ybarra. I am the moral custodian of this blog. You are not. Indeed, you are a newcomer and have arrived as if the wisdom of God were on your word. You have to earn that kind of respect here. It is not granted outright. This is not a chat room. It is a discussion thread. Personal opinions are not propaganda. You can take a point of an opinion and “factualize” it with information that opposes it, but are not free to diminish the contributor as pushing propaganda. That is name calling and that will get you blocked from this discussion if you can’t discern the difference between issue and person. Propaganda is an intent to deceive, and I do not recognize that in the comments to which you refer. I recognize concern about the direction and leadership of the nation.

              • Ybarra Crisostomo says:

                Sorry for the intrusion. You have requested me to point out the comments that I perceive as a propaganda. I pointed it out stating the “comments just below this”. I mean the comments that starts with “impulsive psycho…” and “duterte have no brain…” as I can read them outright upon scrolling.

              • I welcome earnest dialogue. Cruise has been very good about it, challenging our preconceived notions without questioning motive.

                You could challenge the contributor to justify the claim that the President “has no brain” and try to get to the incidents that provoked that assessment. I look at those kinds expressions in the same vein as President Duterte’s profane exasperation at the US in general and President Obama in particular. They reflect real emotions. To resolve it, we’d have to get to a discussion of human rights and their development and intent. That has never happened because people just go defensive and nasty. A constructive dialogue would drill down to try to discover why President Duterte (or the commenter) are so angry.

                Good luck on the latter. I know few who would dare to try to figure out why President Duterte is so angry about the US. I’ve read some guesses, but one would have to face the President himself to do the discovery. His manner does not encourage that, as the journalist who faced a question about the aroma of his wife’s vagina can attest.

            • caliphman says:

              Fact check. MacArthur’s island hopping strategy would have allowed bypassing the Philippines and establishing military bases in Iwo Jima and Okinawa which were the stepping stones for the invasion of Japan. He has been severely criticized by military historians in taking a Philippine detour to serve his own political and persobal agenda costing the lives of more than a hundred thousand of his soldiers. I know it may be difficult for you in your youth but please try and get your facts straight.

        • J. Bondurant says:

          Befriending a bully will only work to your advantage if you can make the bully realize that they’re doing the wrong thing; that they shouldn’t be doing the wrong thing; and that they should permanently stop doing the wrong thing.

        • Ric says:

          Basically you have no evidence whatsoever that China will share with us. You think they will just because “they need allies.” This is naive. And in fact many in the Chinese government have expressed the belief that China does not need allies.

          What we have been saying is that any deal China makes with the Philippines will be disadvantageous to the Philippines. Very naive of you to believe otherwise.

          And personally, as someone who has been a victim of bullying, I take a very dim view of befriending bullies.

          • kim says:

            Yeah, in my experience. You should show bullies that you are not afraid of the bully. That’s the only way to stop the bullies. Befriending just encourages bullying.

        • Ric says:

          http://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/1974414/us-right-china-has-no-allies-because-it-doesnt-need-them

          Read this article to learn what some of the powers that be in China think about “allies”. The article is of course written by a Chinese government-sponsored academic, and reflects a fundamental misunderstanding of what an alliance system means, and the usual Chinese propaganda that China has no hegemonic ambitions, which is of course untrue.

          What China wants is vassals, not allies.

    • Vicente Jr Tongson says:

      Impulsive psycho he is!!!

      • jim brannigan says:

        duterte have no brains he is a soft touch for the chinese he is running over and back to china licking the chinese president arss china robbed the spratly islands and the scarboura shoal and burned the phillipine flag in china for all the world to see the chinese think the phillipine people are all bo bo and will work for peanuts you cant trust no chinese i no i lived with a chinese woman for 8 years then she wanted me to go to china and marry her older sister to bring her to ireland they are very mean and spend noting only what you give them and take all you have the chinese will take all the oil and gas from the phillipine seas worth trillions of dollars with the money they get from the gas and oil they will start up buisness all over the phillipines giving loads of jobs to the chinese people leaving the phillipine people with no jobs and make the phillipines like hatai the poorest counytry in the world the chinese president is only making and idiot out of duterte with his sweet talk promising duterte the sun moon and stars but they are only after the oil and gas in the phillipine seas to make china super rich and make the phillipines super poor the chinese said they owen the phillipines and they will when the chinese take over you wait and see jim from ireland

    • Roman says:

      Duterte is simply an idiot and do not know much. Can you Trust a man who finished HIGH SCHOOL in 7 years? Someone must search how he finished law degree. He does not understand many things that a president needs to know such as economics or diplomacy.
      He is simply a narrow minded person. Can you remember during a debate, he could not answer a question from the moderator and just resorted to name calling like a 13 year old. He is a psychopath and a narcissist. we need to stop this man from inflicting more damages to the PHL. He looks at the mirror all the time and thinks he is a good looking man. In the planet of the apes movie, he can pass the audition and does not need make up anymore.

  4. jp says:

    Add Benham Rise and the rest of the east.

    • karlgarcia says:

      Yeah we have no equipment to explore rare earth,natural gas,etc if we throw out all other allies. if they creep in to the Pacific,the while world should worry.

      But they (China)were a dud in Africa,they are now trying to move to Venezuela and out of Africa.
      Because Africa had other options like India.

      The last I heard of our India relations was that it was sweet that turned sour because of the Frigate aquisition project.

      • karlgarcia says:

        In other news,Venezuela may default in its debt to China and China is worried that Africa might default too.

        http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/venezuela-china-investment-africa_us_5775ade3e4b04164640f6297

        • karlgarcia says:

          Let us stop for a while.
          China invested in Africa and Venezuela because they have oil,minerals and natural resources,but both are not doing good economically nowadays and may soon default in their debts to China.

          What do we have,?Most of our minerals and natural resources is already going to China, we do not have oil,and if ever they explore oil here,it will also go to them.
          Commodities are not doing well,and no signs of improvement.

          For now,the Employers are saying,no investor is pulling out,and Duterte’s policies are on the right track, what if they start to pull out,what will happen to us? Once our economy falls,China will drop us like a hot potato,especially with what they are experiencing in Africa and Venezuela.

          • @ karl

            I wish PDU30 or anyone of his closest advisors that he listen to would read this comment of yours and think more about this China pivot of his before it’s too late.

            • karlgarcia says:

              Thanks,
              But hearing his Finance secretary tell the credit rating agencies not to listen to political noise,is like telling them that they are stupid.

              I don’t get the anslysts that the hot money outflows just moved to Thailand or Malaysia or somewhere, and they will be back, again downplaying the so-called political noise.

              They are really perception managers straight from the novel,I forgot the title.

              Was it Deliver us from Evil?

              So far,China finds us useful,somehow for their plans for the region and to have their own pivot, I linked sonething about Russia’s own Asian pivot.I guess Duterte is more calculating than most people think.The question now is,is he miscalculating?

              • karlgarcia says:

                Re: Perception Management
                It was also from David Baldacci,and the title was “The Whole Truth”

              • With his current actions, what use is the ace that PNOY gave him (the PCA ruling) that he earnestly thank him for?

                What brilliant chess move is he thinking …this playing the US and the other allied countries, including the UN vs China?

                The kindest thing that I can allow him is that he is just mistakenly thinking of providing a cooling period for the Chinese, a time for them to get over their humiliation and anger over the PCA decision. What if this period will allow the Chinese to perfect their foothold on the whole of the West Philippine Sea and that the best effort done by the previous admin to protect our territory will just go to waste?

                Is the modernization effort initiated by PNOY to go down the drain, too…or worse will it be used against our poor countrymen in the guise of this drug war?

                So many questions and all I can hear for answers are his rambling speeches against Sen. de Lima, the US, UN, his praises for Imee Marcos, and his shaming LGUs who supported Mar now that he is in the position of giving aid to typhoon victims as if the aid comes from his own pocket and not from taxes from the citizens, the credit grabbing by his minions of all previous projects initiated by DPWH etc. and his enablers’ attempts to justify them or instructing us to look for hidden meanings of his daily outbursts.

    • MANILA, Philippines – Japan and Korea have expressed interest in research and exploration of the mineral resource-rich Benham Rise, an underwater volcanic ridge located in the Philippine Sea east of Isabela.

      The Department of Science and Technology (DOST) said yesterday it is hopeful that it could undertake a vital resource mapping over Benham Rise with Japan and Korea.

      Carlos Primo David, executive director of the DOST’s Philippine Council on Industry, Energy and Emerging Technologies Research and Development, said Benham Rise has attracted the interest of experts from the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC) and Korea Institute of Ocean Science and Technology (KIOST) to collaborate on conducting the survey.

      http://www.philstar.com/headlines/2016/02/12/1552155/japan-korea-interested-exploring-benham-rise

  5. edgar lores says:

    *******
    1. Duterte’s tilt-to-China policy is a continuation of GMA’s — with a difference.

    2. GMA flirted with China mostly for personal enrichment, but Duterte is going for a full engagement seemingly for national enrichment.

    3. This is where Andrew’s analysis comes in: we think we are gaining much in opening our legs, to use Mary’s colorful metaphor, but we are actually inviting rape.

    4. As Obama said, Duterte is a colorful guy. The color is mostly red.
    *****

    • karlgarcia says:

      1 to 4-Agreed.

    • If I may, I’d like to expand more on that colorful metaphor. What GMA did and what current President is doing right now only in a greater extent, that is, not only in the power supply (and the failed ZTE deal)…look how he warned the duopoly in the telecom business, if you cannot improve the internet connection, I will give this to China…what other national utilitiy companies will he open with China?

      What is the difference between GMA/PDU30 and the mega pimp…who virtually spread the legs of the mother country inviting the evil ones to rape her for billion or trillions of dollars in commissions and/or business profits that will go their (or their familiy members’ and friends’ read campaign fund contributors like Marcos.GMA) way?

  6. gerverg1885 says:

    China’s real intent on drawing the nine dash line is to block the passage of natural resources, particularly oil, going to Japan but in the process, we were so badly affected. Our fisherfolk could not venture out to sea since the Chinese were driving them back to shore.

    Japan had been building its military might in anticipation of a shooting war that China could not start because it knows that the US of A is always on alert to help Japan, as well as Australia and New Zealand

    Should Duterte’s plan to ally with China become a reality, the possibility of that country to establish a military base inside the Philippine soil, in the Ilocos provinces, for example, is not remote.

    Their plan is not to help the Philippines; rather, it is to establish a strategic launching pad for their warplanes and missiles pointed to Japan.

    • cruise says:

      why not the tsinenses establish their launching pad in taiwan, or hongkong or macau, their truly own territories? is it because when the bombs start to drop, they don’t want it in their own backyard and let it be in someone’s else backyard? did prrd say it is a military alliance or trade alliance? there is a big difference? let us not make 1 apple + 1 orange equals 2 apples or 2 oranges but 2 fruits. finas will just get two fruits…a military alliance with usa (of course usa is a finas trade ally) and a trade alliance with tsina. let us look at the message. because prrd is saying he is having trade alliance with tsina, he is saying not saying that he is not honoring finas mil agreements with usa. maybe his bark is just his projection of leverage as some analyst have deduced. but i do not know what is in the mind of prrd so i can only guess. maybe he is also teasing us all. i for sure do not want the bombs to drop in finas mainlands, perhaps in the atoll lands far far away from the populace maybe a thought. ah war is hell. and when war is it, anything can happen, geneva convention is only invoked by the losers and not by winners (of course witnesses required)…the rule that prevails is i wanna live…i donna want to die.

  7. Melva says:

    Mr . Andrew Lim’s article is an eye-opener. I hope the Bashers understand every word of it and it’s implications.
    Pls put down your bashing tools and ponder over the article and its message. For the first time, think Filipino. Let us be the leverage.

  8. cruise says:

    i have a stupid proposal for i live in stupidland. it is about unclos…an international body, tsina…oh, a mighty one…usa, oh the mightiest of the mighties…and finas, supposed owner of the panatag shoal, a not so bit player in world politics.
    1. unclos ruled that tsina has no rights to the panatag shoals as finas is the rightful owner.
    2. tsina says it is theirs per their 9-dash line statement, an illegal settler in spratleys…possession is 99 percent ownership while title of ownership is only 1 percent ownership like the illegal settlers in finas who has more rights than the rightful owners of land (poor finoy owner goes to filgov only to be told it is not her problem but the owner’s problem).
    3. usa, a long time ally and friend of finas and great protector of rights, wants somewhat badly a presence in the wps area (has a navy base in singapore) to protect sea line passage in the area.
    4. finas, supposed owner of the beautiful panatag shoals (a big fishpond for finoy fishermen), is in dire need of cash for infrastructure and weapons modernization for the protection of its territory.
    my stupid proposal is…
    FINAS OFFERS TO USA the Panatag shoals for a 75yr lease for use as a USMILBASE in exchange for modern milhardware for finas and a small afp presence in the base with USA shouldering all the reclamation and development costs. (if tsina can develop shoals using finas rocks and soil (although illegally), why can’t usa do it too the legal way).
    the lease offer is a good leverage for finas to usa if usa believes in the unclos ruling and usa really wants to help finas assert her ownership of the area. a signed lease contract agreement is a de facto recognization by usa that true ownership belongs to finas and i firmly believe the eu will also go along with this belief…australia, japan and some asean countries do believe that finas is the rightful owner.
    for this to happen…usa must recognize that it is in its national security interest that her presence in the wps is a must and that finas needs to be treated like how usa treats her allies like japan, south korea, israel or egypt and not as a small kid brother. for mr prrd, this offer of lease will give you the opportunity to test usa true frienship with finas. mr prrd, you are not begging but you are offering a product for the right price and if the price is right then shake hands and rock and roll.
    i look at prrd move for finas to have trade alliance with china is a good move for he is just doing what other nations are doing…trading with china. i hope when prrd talks to the chinese, he should offer the squatters the lease proposal on the squatted land…this will be one defining independent foreign policy…and if the squatter agree then bilateral talks is finas victory.
    so my fellow bloggers, what ye say all…i do believe that one stupid idea and some other stupid ideas can produce a (fucking bloody) good idea. but of course, environmentalists will say the shoal will become an environmental disaster. cheers, isa pa nga.

    • madlanglupa says:

      There are things that China does not have what Americans have, and that is transparency and accountability, checks and balances, and responsibility.

      Wake up and smell the coffee. Your president whom he deals with in exchange for something he thinks would make us all rich may soon end up as the biggest fraud and a backstab in history.

      “If one day China should change her colour and turn into a superpower, if she too should play the tyrant in the world, and everywhere subject others to her bullying, aggression and exploitation, the people of the world should identify her as social-imperialism, expose it, oppose it and work together with the Chinese people to overthrow it.” — Deng Xiaoping, 1974.

      • cruise says:

        the proposal is to have the usa lease panatag shoal from finas. what are the merits of this stupid proposal. but thanks for the thoughts, perhaps it may be tangential merit or demerit.

        • I personally agree with your non stupid proposal but quite not sure about the current rubber stamp Senate and HOR, which need to be considered, also as JP has pointed out, what with fact that it runs counter to PRD’s foreign policy of “China pivot.”

          That proposal would surely offer a strong deterrent against any Chinese military actions directed at us. I just remembered their immediate reaction to the Hague decision – how they paraded their numerous ICBM from Hainan island.

          Let’s look on their heightened military capabilities which they have displayed for the world to see:

          http://thediplomat.com/2015/09/heres-what-you-need-to-know-about-chinas-grand-military-parade/

          ….the parade featured a variety of missiles from the Dong Feng (DF, East Wind) series such as the DF-15B short-range ballistic missile (SRBM), the DF-16 medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM), the DF-21C MRBM, the DF-5B intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), the DF-31 A ICBM, the DF-10 land-attack cruise missile (LACM), and the DF-26 intermediate range ballistic missile (IRBM).

          The DF-26 IRBM is allegedly capable of striking U.S. military installations on Guam (as well as medium-sized maritime targets) and the DF-16 MRBM can purportedly reach Okinawa. One of the ICBMs displayed – the DF-5B – is apparently equipped with multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicles (MIRVs), while the DF-31A boosts a maneuverable reentry vehicle (MARV) capable of shifting targets in flights. Notably absent from the parade grounds was China’s newest ICBM – the DF-41 (See: “China Tests New Missile Capable of Hitting Entire United States”).

          • It will take years to convert Panatag shoals or even the Pag-asa Island (off Palawan) into a US military base. It is a win-win strategy, which will take possible nuclear threats a little farther away from the rest of our archipelago where millions reside.

            In the meantime, we have EDCA.

            https://joeam.com/2016/03/20/the-edca-bases/

            • cruise says:

              it is definitely years before the panatag shoals will be developed but the mere fact that usa signs a lease (if) is already some kind of giving the tsinenses a second thought (that panatag is really finas property). at least usa will defend her temp territory, walang sanang parang sabah perpetual lease. the reason i propose this idea is to have prrd other options of testing the bond of us-fil alliance. if usa refuses and says too hot a potato, what does that mean, does usa believe in the unclos ruling…it’s a test. like a poker bluff, which usa needs to call to show her voiced out interest for finas (hindi lang sa isip at salita, kundi pati sa gawa).
              if i am a leader and there is problem, my staff should give me several options with the pros n cons, advantages, doability and its corresponding risk. no solution is full proof. whatever solution one decides should also live with the risk associated with it. and i as a leader will just say go ahead with option x.

              • karlgarcia says:

                You just don’t dig the ocean floor when you reclaim,many mountains out there will be quarried like hell, and this will most probably be mountains from the philippines.
                We will be losers,no matter who leases it.And someone will be laughing all the way to the bank.

                Now,I wonder where Dubai gets all the landfill for all their reclamations.

          • karlgarcia says:

            MGPG,

            That DF-41 can erase the US from the map within 30 minutes???

            https://www.rt.com/news/340359-china-test-ballistic-missile/

            Where is the next trip of Duterte, to North Korea?

            • Because of the favorable balance of trade with the US, China was awash with cash for decades now, they are the major creditor of the US, with plenty left over they could play around with which they did, by upgrading and modernizing their military capabilities.

              If not for the Greek debacle, they are super super rich and powerful, but the losses from the stocks and their moves to protect their currency, are but only a bucket in their ocean… They are building trains in most parts of Asia and offered to build a nuclear reactor for Britain.

              What did the world unleash? It managed to awaken the sleeping dragon?

              One thing I know and believe, God is more powerful than anyone or any nation.

            • cruise says:

              and i also believe that usa have the same capability to erase tsina from the map within 30 minutes. with the hi-tech, intel would perhaps predict a launch to take place and if it does actually gets up, usa will not take it with its pants down. the button will be pushed…assured mutual destruction (amd)..then…tama nga si prrd…see you in heaven.
              what makes the two at peace…both have amd capabilties and trade. if money and goods exchanges…there will be people to rule and there will be super powers. if missiles are exchanged, then earth will be back to square one…the beginning of another cycle.

            • madlanglupa says:

              Just to point out that RT is Putin’s mouthpiece, so they can make up almost everything.

    • Juana Pilipinas says:

      “FINAS OFFERS TO USA the Panatag shoals for a 75yr lease for use as a USMILBASE in exchange for modern mil hardware for finds and a small afp presence in the base with USA shouldering all the reclamation and development costs.”

      Sounds like a win-win situation. The US will have a base to conduct their mission of protecting shipping lanes and PH get $ and protection from Chinese encroachment.

      The problem is: 92% of Filipinos trust the US (Pew Research Center) but Filipinos gave a trust rating of -24 to China (recent SWS poll). Yes, that is a negative number. Filipinos would entertain your proposal but it runs counter to PRD’s foreign policy of “China pivot.” Could he be talked into leasing a piece of PH to US when he wants to stop joint military exercises because he does not want to upset China?

      “i look at prrd move for finds to have trade alliance with china is a good move for he is just doing what other nations are doing…trading with china.”

      You mean formalize the illegal dumping of made in China products in PH? It might stop the rampant smuggling and PH could get some money from tariffs, if PRD could pull it off. I do not foresee any international problem arising from PH legally trading with China.

      • cruise says:

        i am glad that someone agrees with the idea. it is true that this idea is counter to his china pivot (surely on the trade side but i am not fully convinced yet that it is also on military alliance perspective…buying arms, yes but that does not mean neccessarilly mutual defense) and i new that. but not knowing what aces that prrd has to play with usa, this idea came up. maybe he did not know of this idea and perhaps his military and defense advisers will read about this and discuss the merits of the idea. if usa gives very good carrots and forget the stick, it will probably appease prrd, usa should understand what irks prrd…he was trying to solve a finas problem in a finas way but some sectors see it the wrong way. of course death as a side effect of the solution is not good. it occurs because of lack of training and information. other causes of deaths are witness cleansing, drug swindling, drug personality vendetta and other reasons. those people who know the procedure are alive…if media and celebrities will help in the information campaign to people to just follow what police operatives instruct during police operations so when suspects are confronted by police they just follow what the police will say perhaps deaths will be lessened. when ninja and rogue cops get sentenced for their crimes, i feel some change of attitude will occur. like what a famous leader said it may be bloody in the beginning, there may be bumps of up and downs in between, in the end happiness will be achieved…i hope…

      • chemrock says:

        Correct me if I’m wrong. I thought Philippines own only the economic rights to the area around Panatag Shoal, which is not the same as territorial ownership. You can’t lease out what you don’t own.

        • Bill In Oz says:

          That is my understanding also…Sovereign territorial rights end 12 nautical miles from the nearest inhabited land…Maritime rights over the sea & fishing can extend a lot further..

          • What’s EEZ then…that’s Exclusive Economic Zone, 200 miles from the nearest land mass of claimants. Per SC Senior Justice Carpio, it is defined in our Constitution as part of our territory. We need to take a look abain at the PCA decision.

            • karlgarcia says:

              territorial waters-full sovereignty
              EEZ-sovereign rights
              not our territory

              • karlgarcia says:

                https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Territorial_waters

                Tingnan na nga natin si wiki.
                Mahaba yung desisyon.

              • karlgarcia says:

                An exclusive economic zone extends from the outer limit of the territorial sea to a maximum of 200 nautical miles (370.4 km; 230.2 mi) from the territorial sea baseline, thus it includes the contiguous zone.[3] A coastal nation has control of all economic resources within its exclusive economic zone, including fishing, mining, oil exploration, and any pollution of those resources. However, it cannot prohibit passage or loitering above, on, or under the surface of the sea that is in compliance with the laws and regulations adopted by the coastal State in accordance with the provisions of the UN Convention, within that portion of its exclusive economic zone beyond its territorial sea. Before the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea of 1982, coastal nations arbitrarily extended their territorial waters in an effort to control activities which are now regulated by the exclusive economic zone, such as offshore oil exploration or fishing rights (see Cod Wars). Indeed, the exclusive economic zone is still popularly, though erroneously, called a coastal nation’s territorial waters.

        • It is within PH EEZ and part of the PCA award. isn’t it? Please, tell me why you think PH cannot lease it. The only problem I see is China does not want to honor the arbitration award and with PRD’s China pivot, he probably will not honor it either. cruise’s idea is still good but the probability of it happening is close to nil.

          “In January 2013, the Philippines formally initiated arbitration proceedings against China’s claim on the territories within the “nine-dash line” that include Scarborough Shoal, which the Philippines said is unlawful under the UNCLOS convention.[48] An arbitration tribunal was constituted under Annex VII of UNCLOS and it was decided in July 2013 that the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) would function as registry and provide administrative duties in the proceedings.[49]

          On July 12, 2016, the arbitral tribunal agreed unanimously with the Philippines. In its award, it concluded that there is no evidence that China had historically exercised exclusive control over the waters or resources, hence there was “no legal basis for China to claim historic rights” over the nine-dash line.[50][51] The tribunal also judged that China had caused “severe harm to the coral reef environment”,[52] and that it had violated Philippines’ sovereign rights in its exclusive economic zone by interfering with Philippine fishing and petroleum exploration, for example restricting the traditional fishing rights of Filipino fishermen at Scarborough Shoal.[53] China however rejected the ruling, calling it “ill-founded”.” The Chinese president Xi Jinping insisted that “China’s territorial sovereignty and marine rights in the South China Sea will not be affected by the so-called Philippines South China Sea ruling in any way”, nevertheless China would still be “committed to resolving disputes” with its neighbours.[53][54]”

          https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scarborough_Shoal

          • karlgarcia says:

            Maybe chemrock and Bill can correct me,you can explore and fish there,maybe that’s it.Pangilinan tried to have joint exploratios on Reed Bank,but it became controversial.

            So maybe exploration rights and maritime rights,only.

          • cruise says:

            i am no lawyer, but it is not common sense that you own the maritime rights but for resources only. if the pix has that small land mass, why don’t we own it? parang may kulay ng sabah lease, very subject to interpretation. again, the rule that will prevail is perhaps possession thru strength principle. enforcement of the law requires strength and resolve to enforce the law plus some others…many conquest were backed up by force, whether conquest by christians, by islamist, by colonizers or by barbarians. when conquest is completed pacification laws are made by the strong for their benefit so rule and obedience will be made easy on the weak. the world will be easy to be governed if there is one culture, customs and traditions…it is easier to manage and control…but the reality is we have a multicultural world. my treasure might be your junk, your rights may be my wrongs…that is how diverse people are…weder weder lang…sana mabasa ni prrd itong finas offer to usa of panatag lease, an offer which usa can not refuse and then usa counteroffers finas which finas cannot refuse because it is good for us-finas relations and mil-alliance…friendship prevails i hope. nothing is wrong in bringing up the idea, if something happens along this line well and good, it this idea or similar one does not bear fruit noting is gained nothing is lost, words and ideas are cheap and dreams are free.

            • karlgarcia says:

              Cruise,
              I know there are no right or wrong answers in presenting ideas,but there will always be questions. Thank you for your idea.

            • chemrock says:

              Cruise – about rights and ownership. I made a comment here in some back issues that Singapore won a case against Malaysia in the same tribunal over a tiny island. I mentioned that Philippines and other countries having somewhat similar claims could have taken a lesson. Ownership claim is strong if the country can demonstrate some means of physical admin over the place, like some structures or occupation. Singapore won that case because we own and operated the lighthouse on that island. Philippines leadership spent too much time infighting to take note of what’s going on outside. I would have thought that Philippines would have paid great attention to the Singapore-Malaysia arbitration and preemptively put up some structures in those disputed land masses. Reactively that’s what you guys did by leaving that condemned naval vessel (forgot the name) there.

              That said, it doesn’t mean if you have structures and occupation there, China would not have transgressed. But Philippines case would be that much much stronger

        • Ybarra Crisostomo says:

          You are correct. We don’t own Panatag Shoal, only EEZ. We cannot lease it. The above proposal is not possible. Granting that it is ours and we can lease it for the purpose of protection we are not sure if US will agree with it without some prize. Afterall, we are going for independence, and independence means we can stand on our own, without US, without China.

          • “We are not sure if US will agree with it without some prize (or price?)” The US has three clear positions in the West Philippine sea: (1) Defense treaty with the Philippines, (2) support of international laws and thereby the arbitration ruling of the Hague, and (3) open seas and skies. The US has taken no position on specific claims to territory, or even the PH arguments at the Hague. To overlay speculations about US expectations or intent are purely inventions of your own purpose.

            • Ybarra Crisostomo says:

              In this game, no nation explicitly state it’s position. It would be a fool to do that. War of Pres GWB on Middle East against terrorism or War for Oil? Nations, represented by its leaders, do not reveal their strategies, even China. With regards to US stands on WPS is it really for free seas and skies or for military presence in the area?

              • Free skies and seas. China invites the military presence by rash acts. N Korea, as well. Indeed, recent analyses cite the failure of China’s foreign policies for exactly that reason. Plus the militarization of numerous states that feel China’s overbearing presence.

            • cruise says:

              my purely inventions of my own purpose is to generate healthy discussions and deep thoughts. i think i achieved that purpose and i am happy with it…and thanks for all the thoughts and ideas. if we think it maybe. red red wine make me feel so fine…but i do prefer sanmig.

    • J. Bondurant says:

      The “squatters” of whom you speak don’t want to admit that they’re squatters. They believe they own the territory in which they’re encroaching even if international law proves they’re wrong.

  9. Malou says:

    Impeach si p…ina

  10. The value of the Philippines to China is strategic – one look at the map makes it clear…

    choke point on global shipping and oil supply of Japan, South Korea and Taiwan – US allies..

    Vietnam will be pretty alone against China, Malaysia is more pro-Chinese, Thailand as well.

    Indonesia may move closer to Australia and the US, inevitably in a Southeast Asian Cold War.

    The Philippines is the keystone to Asia – which is the reason Spain and the US colonized it before.

  11. fred ng Maynila says:

    Panalo na tayo sa UN at buong mundo na sumusuporta na sa Pilipinas bigla na lang nag iba ang pangyayari dahil lamang sa bagong Leader na matapang lang magmura at magpapatay ng kapwa niya Filipino na sabihin na dahil sa kampanya niya sa Droga,pero hindi kampanya sa kahirapan.binale wala ang mga pang aapi ng mga negosyante intsik sa mga Pilipino sa mahabang panahon at ang pag-papalayas at pang babastos sa ating mga mangingisda sa west Philippine sea.sabi ni Duterte ako mismo pag nanalo ilalagay ko ang bandera ng Pilipinas sa spratly island na yan.Duwag naman pala at alam niya di siya papatulan ni Obama😀kahit maghapon pa siya magmura.So enjoyin ng mga Pinoy ang one day pinalalayas na kayo ng mga intsik sa mga bahay ninyo dahil diyan na sila titira.weeeh 😀cge pa ng sigaw Duterte Duterte!!!ha ha

  12. Juana Pilipinas says:

    Thank you, andrew, for being a patriotic sentinel and a courageous one too (calling the spade a spade).

    I agree with every word you wrote but most Filipinos feel that they are between a rock and a hard place. Even FVR had been excluded from the Beijing entourage for speaking his mind. It is agonizing to see PH in such quandary. What are Filipinos’ leverage(s) against the wholesale suppression of their rights and freedoms?

  13. Michelle Alonzo says:

    lahat umaayaw sa Komunismo tanging Du30 admin lang pilit yumayakap dito.
    NotoPresidentialSelfInterest and NoToChina

  14. Fred Escobar says:

    I beg you pardon Andrew. It was Trillanes who gave away to the Chinese these disputed area of our traditional fishing grounds for who knows how much. It was just inherited by our President at the start of his term. Do not make conclusions if you don’t have the knowledge about the history of what happened. It all happened under the old administration with the clandestine moves that Trillanes made on his 16 trips to China with NO report whatsoever about what he did in China talking to all these high ranking Chinese officials who are ready and willing to bribe him at their discretion. Now go and research this event to your liking and I hope that blaming this new administration will disappear from your narrow mind. A little knowledge is very dangerous Andrew.

    • karlgarcia says:

      We are all dangerous because we only know a little.

      http://www.gmanetwork.com/news/story/274903/news/nation/back-channels-of-diplomacy-trillanes-mvp-us-talk-to-china-for-phl

      What we know is the Philippine Navy blocked Chinese fishermen in Panatag shoal,and China got mad because it was a Military to Civilian encounter.

      That was the reason that the Coast Guard was removed from the Philippine Navy,a few years prior to comply with international requrements of such encounters.Military to Military. Civilian to civilian. In short demilitarization.

      Tayo pa daw ang bully.
      The thing went ugly.
      The palace denied ever sending Trillanes to China,because what is our DFA for?
      Del Rosario naturally sent an official negotiator.

      Then MVp was somehow involved(this is no longer about the Panatag standoff)
      Philex mining wanted a joint exploration in Reed Bank with the Chinese.
      So Trillanes accused Del Rosario of some sort of conflict of interest,because of ties to MVP.

      That so far is what we are told.
      Enrile questioned this because of so many unknowns.

      So how did Trillanes sold off the Philippines,like Alunan and others had been spreading?

      Fred,can you enlighten us?

      • karlgarcia says:

        Philippine Coast Guard meets Chinese Coast Guard.

        • Juana Pilipinas says:

          Talk about David and Goliath. Take note, DFA. This is a visual of the relationship of the two countries. A giant looming over at 90 pounds weakling. Do I see another Chinese cutter in the background? Are they doing the “cabbage?”

        • “There is only one power on Earth that can stop the Chinese from poaching in our EEZ. That is the US,” said Carpio amid President Rodrigo Duterte’s strong opposition to joint patrols and anti-US rhetoric.

          Duterte had called for a stop in joint patrols in the West Philippine Sea, saying he does not want “trouble.” He said he wants military patrols to be limited to the country’s 12-mile territorial sea.

          But according to Carpio, the Constitution mandates the military to patrol the country’s 200-mile exclusive economic zone and not just the 12-mile territorial sea.

          “The Constitution says the State shall protect its EEZ. The Philippines must protect its EEZ, that’s the mandate of the Constitution,” Carpio said.

          Article XII, Section 2 of the Constitution directs the State to “protect the nation’s marine wealth in its archipelagic waters, territorial sea, and exclusive economic zone, and reserve its use and enjoyment exclusively to Filipino citizens.”

          “The only way to protect that is to send patrol ships there because if a foreign fishing vessel will poach on our waters in the EEZ, the only way we can stop them is to patrol there,” Carpio said.

          The Spratly Islands, a chain of islands and islets believed to rich in oil and minerals deposits, is outside the country’s territorial sea but is within and even extends beyond the country’s EEZ, and is being claimed in part or in whole by the Philippines, China, Malaysia, Vietnam, Brunei and Taiwan.

          The Malampaya deep water gas-to-power project is also outside the country’s territorial sea as it is located 43 miles from mainland Palawan.

          Carpio said the Philippines stands to lose billions of pesos “if anyone can attack our facility in Malampaya.”

          “It will endanger our energy security in Luzon and we’re going to lose a lot of fish and that will amount to billions of pesos,” Carpio said.

          Carpio was a party to the case lodged by the Philippines before a United Nations arbitral court against China’s nine-dash line claim over the South China Sea.

          In a ruling last July, the court dismissed China’s excessive claim and upheld Philippines 200-mile EEZ under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea.

          http://www.gmanetwork.com/news/story/584624/news/nation/justice-carpio-only-us-can-protect-phl-s-eez-from-chinese-poachers

          • Ybarra Crisostomo says:

            This is the reason why we should talk to China for joint exploration, and we can only do this if we have good relationship with them. If we protect it with force with the help of US, it would be war. We don’t want war.

      • Fred Escobar says:

        The old administration tried to hide these events from the people but unfortunate as all dirty tricks do come out at the end, this one of them. The government provided logistics for all the 16 trips that Trillanes did to China. What for? This Trillanes only knows. NO reports whatsoever was made by him. Acting as an envoy of a country must be sanctioned by the government and a report must be made and witnessed by another foreigner affairs person who should accompany the envoy as a witness. None of these protocols were followed in this case. Why because as I said earlier, it a clandestine move by Trillanes himself. He is the devil in disguise. The accomplish is the government itself. In as much as there has been a lot of attempts to find out what he did in China in the 16 trips he made to China, total silence was all that faced the researchers looking into it. Only Trillanes knows and he won’t divulged it at this moment. Maybe he is holding it like an ace under his sleeves for another evil move that he is planning for this new administration. These are the facts at this moment. Hopefully he goofs and reveals it sometime in the future. Ciao

        • karlgarcia says:

          https://thenutbox.wordpress.com/2012/09/30/why-trillanes-is-the-wrong-man/

          From blogger J, sometimes he comments,here.
          He works for the DFA

          He provided good insight,and filled in some blanks.

          • karlgarcia says:

            I know I already said Hasta la Vista to Fred, but this is for all of us.

            But here is what blogger J said about back channeling.

            “This blog disagrees with these rabid critics, of course. There is nothing wrong with back-channeling when dealing with a foreign power on something as serious as the Scarborough stand-off. In fact, it’s a fairly common practice of statecraft: It allows nations, in times of crisis, to test waters, send feelers, and thereby explore every possible way to resolve conflicts, even as they parrot an official line. There was, however, something seriously wrong about choosing Senator Trillanes to be the President’s back-door point man.”

            I may agree or disagree with J with the choice of Trillanes,because of my biases.

            But,backchanelling as said by J has been a common practice.
            Should the practice be stopped?
            i don’t know,there will always be a backdoor negotiator in every crisis.

    • cruise says:

      talks with china happened even before trillanes…remember nbn-ztn deal and north rail…golfing vacation of xpgma and fgma brokered by abalos, i believe spratleys was also a topic in the discussions.

    • chemrock says:

      Escobar you take China as an idiot to negotiate with Trillanes. The good senator was simply an emissary, a high class messenger that time. Back channels are simply used as feelers, to sound out each other. Obviously the vibes from China was not good that’s why the Pnoy admin pursued the case in UN. And now having taken one step forward, we are taking two steps backward.

    • Ric says:

      It doesn’t matter that Duterte inherited the problem from someone else, Fred. His job is to fix it nonetheless. That’s why he’s president in the first place. If he fails to do so we will rightly call him incompetent at best and traitorous at worst.

      I know that many Duterte fans believe that Trillanes gave Scarborough to China, but this seems unlikely in the extreme. Firstly, he doesn’t have the authority to give it away, so he couldn’t have done it even if he wanted to. Second, why would he want to? What’s the motive? Why would he give it away back then and suddenly change his mind now?

      My understanding is that these were back-channel negotiations, and either through those negotiations or American mediation, both Philippine and Chinese ships were supposed to leave the shoal at the same time to end the standoff. And as we know, our ship left the Chinese, being deceitful liars, stayed. So, you can blame Trillanes for trusting the Chinese, or you could blame the US for not taking action when China broke their promise, but it’s simply a lie to claim that Trillanes gave Scarborough away.

  15. Michael Gary says:

    All anyone has to do is look at Tibet.
    Next it will be Mongolia or Myanmar or even North Korea or Bhutan…..
    Any country sharing a border with the Chinese, had better beware…..

    • chemrock says:

      Michael that is not a fair comment. Remember it was the Mongols who invaded China. Keep the perspective. I don’t think China is on an expansionary course. So we need to understand their reason on their aggressive action in WPS. It’s not for the resources, because they can achieve that easily through commercial cooperation with Phil’s. So far, only Irineo has presented a coherent explanation for China’s move, that is, choking off oil supply to Sorkor, Taiwan n Japan. Whilst that is a logic, I don’t think it’s the objective. That is a strategic act in war times which is not the case currently. In fact, these 3 countries can consider that as an act of war by China. So why is China risking being branded a phariah by their action? I have a different view which I’ll explain in a blog I’m planning.

  16. Anton Lau says:

    Business interests of friends from davao
    who supported his campaign (banana growing oligarchs) is more important.

  17. Juana Pilipinas says:

    I wonder how PRD will react to the article below. Abangan and susunod na kabanata:

    http://www.gmanetwork.com/news/story/584955/news/world/icc-prosecutor-deeply-concerned-about-philippines-killings

  18. NHerrera says:

    Now we come to the real score.

    IT IS ALL ABOUT CHINA. The illegal drug war — fuelled by a supposed objective of solving PH’s pestering but overblown drug problem in the context of other countries drug problem being solved there by sane approaches knowing that killing is not the effective way to do it — is the BIG SMOKE SCREEN. That is why ALL RATIONAL LEVERAGE has to be jettisoned down somebody’s a..s, or ours, whichever makes you happy when you visit that tiled little room in the morning.

  19. Sup says:

    “O’ Rise Ye Land of Happy Fools!”

    Seems like we are being used?

    “O’ Rise Ye Land of Happy Tools!”

    🙂

  20. victor says:

    I think not only the west philippine sea …maybe someday the whole country philippines to China…ang Hongkong ay kaya nilang ipagtanggol ang karapatan ng kanilang bayan sa mga tsino maski maliit lang sila…pati mga pilipinong mga mangisngisda di maka panlaot sa sarili nating bakuran para nalang tayo na kaya nilang takutin at maging sunodsunoran nalang sa kanilang gusto,dapat sana ipaglaban natin ang ating karapatan sa mga dayuhan na mag-aapi sa ating bansa gaya ng sinabi ng pangulo na di tayo dapat na maging sunodsunoran nalang sa amerika kung ano ang kanilang gusto….sa china pwede na siguro…?

  21. karlgarcia says:

    Once more.
    China is one of the main souces of Drugs,why can’t Duterte even talk about that?????!!!!!!
    Say something about it already!!!!

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illegal_drug_trade_in_China

    • karlgarcia says:

      China is a major source of precursor chemicals necessary for the production of cocaine, heroin, MDMA and crystal methamphetamine, which are used by many Southeast Asian and Pacific Rim nations. China produces over 100,000 metric tons of acetic anhydride each year, and imports an additional 20,000 metric tons from the United States and Singapore. Reports indicate that acetic anhydride is diverted from China to morphine and heroin refineries in the Golden Triangle.[citation needed] China is also a leading exporter of bulk ephedrine and has been a source country for much of the ephedrine and pseudoephedrine imported into Mexico; these precursor chemicals are subsequently used to manufacture methamphetamine destined for the United States. China is developing a significant MDMA production, trafficking, and consumption problem. Although China has taken actions through legislation and regulation of production and exportation of precursor chemicals, extensive action is required to control the illicit diversion and smuggling of precursor chemicals.

      China not only continues to be a major transit route for Southeast Asian heroin bound for international drug markets, but also for Southwest Asian heroin entering northwestern China from Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Tajikistan. A majority of the Southeast Asian heroin that enters China from Burma transits southern China to various international markets by maritime transport. Drug traffickers take advantage of expanding port facilities in coastal cities, such as Qingdao, Shanghai, Tianjin, and Guangdong, to ship heroin along maritime routes. Southwest Asian heroin (mainly from Afghanistan) represents as much as 22 percent of the heroin entering northwest China. Chinese authorities believe that these trends will increase and they attribute these increases to the continuing development of the infrastructure and economy in China. China is being forced to develop a complex counter-drug strategy that includes prevention, education, eradication, interdiction, and rehabilitation.

      • madlanglupa says:

        The fact that some of them are involved in the trade means, in a sense, a form of vengeance against the Western powers who once tried to control China using opium.

        It is but one of many forms of cultural warfare, the objective being is to corrode the moral cohesion of an enemy..

  22. Bert says:

    “FINAS OFFERS TO USA the Panatag shoals for a 75yr lease for use as a USMILBASE in exchange for modern mil hardware for finds and a small afp presence in the base with USA shouldering all the reclamation and development costs.”—cruise

    That will not happen under the Duterte administration.

    But, guys, relax lang kayo. The West Philippine Sea is not the Emperor’s water to give to China. On the other hand, the West Philippine will be the Emperor’s Waterloo. Just wait and see, guys. Please wake me up on the day the Emperor abdicated the throne, okay?

    • karlgarcia says:

      Hello Bert!
      Your comments are missed.

      • Bert says:

        Hi, karl. I’m always here with all you guys, just watching and having fun as always, reading the marvelous discussions going on here in The Society.

        Unlikie you guys, I’m not worried at all what our President Duterte has been doing all along. I’ll just let him do his thing, digging his own hole with his mouth and with his hands. I know what’s going to happen because as you all know I have a very reliable crystal ball and I’m constantly looking at it all the time.

        Please tell Joe and all the other folks not to worry too much.

  23. karlgarcia says:

    Speaking of ICC jurisdiction.

    May silbi din pala si Gordon,thanks to hs sponsoring the International Humantarian bill in the senate and its eventual passing into law,nagkaron ng jurisdiction ang ICC sa pilipinas.

    I just hope someone will tell Duterte to take this seriously.

  24. Renan Torrecampo says:

    Well said. But last year many of Filipinos have predicted Du30’s move & until today there’s no mistaking that he’s giving them all away. He should be ousted, impeached..whatever it takes before its too late.

  25. Sup says:

    Why a bullet train from Subic to Clark?
    Dino ( new Subic chair) said that they will build that with Chinese money..
    There is a new 4 lane toll road between the 2 places with almost no cars..very silent road…

    http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/824440/sbma-eyes-bullet-train-from-subic-to-clark

  26. Jay N. Ramos says:

    Oh, he understands LEVERAGE very well. That’s precisely why he’s giving away the WPS to the Red Chinese.

  27. Pablo says:

    Why worry? Many businesses in Philippines are owned by Chinese anyway. Yes, Filipino Chinese, but with links which China can and will exploit. it is a matter of only a few years and the business influences will have seeped through to politics.
    Chinese leverage.

    • chemrock says:

      There is no such thing as Chinese leverage. The PRC Chinese look at Chinoys, Malaysian Chinese, Indonesian Chinese and Singapore Chinese with disdain.

      • NHerrera says:

        I believe that disdain too. It is a triumph of that most useful tool of authoritarian regime — one probably perfected by Hitler’s Goebbels.

        One cannot be just blond and white, one has to be “Aryan.” Funny how it came to the farcical Nazi Doctors measuring the facial features against the standard Aryan face. And when it comes to using technical tools like the caliper, no one can compare with the German or Japanese.

        I am of Chinese descent but because of dilution I have lost the standard feature of the current mainland Chinese supporters of the Politburo.

  28. Bill In Oz says:

    The ABC Radio National program had a very interesting 15 minute program about Duterte last Thursday evening. The discussion was particularly good. Two criticisms of it though.Neither of the guests interviewed were Filipino; just an Australian and a Hong Kong based American. And there is no transcript.One has to listen to it ..

    http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/betweenthelines/duterte-harry/7926276

  29. Bill In Oz says:

    An informed outsider perspective :
    Chines foreign policy in the South China sea & West Philippines sea since 2001 has been predicated on disrupting the USA alliance system in the region. So the Philippines as an ‘ally’ of the USA has been a target of this strategy.

    A side note : since 1992 when the USA was forced to leave Subic Bay Navy & Clark Air Force bases, the Philippines has clearly been a ‘weak’ ally of the USA. So it was an obvious target.

    But now clearly the Philippines under Duterte, is no longer an ally of the USA .In fact I think he is trying to lead the Philippines towards being a Chinese ally in the region. Why ? To lesson the chances of conflict and to gain access to Chinese financial support and technology to encourage further development within the Philippines.

    In this context it would make sense for China to ease off the pressure on the Philippines via a vis the West Philippines sea. This will help strengthen China Philippines friendship ties. And avoid the build up of public opinion hostile to China in the Philippines which would undermine the friendship.

    Watching what China actually does over the next year or two, will show if this idea is right or wrong.

    • karlgarcia says:

      I guess the Chinese will pull out until next sighting. or until we meet again(hasta la vista).
      It could be a few months or a few days,depending on the talks.

      Bill,what happened to the Chinese buying land in Australia,was it really cancelled or where the Chinese able to use dummies.

      In the Philippines,the GMA offered to lease 1 million out of the 10 million hectates of agricultural land,but nothing hapenned as of today.

      The Chinese warned the Australian visitors, that their words should match their actions,would they do the same with Duterte?

      • Bill In Oz says:

        Karl, The proposal to buy the Kidman Pastoral group of cattle stations was blocked by the government…The leasehold land involved is also part of an area used for weapons development…And since then a rich woman named Gina Reinheart has made an offer to buy the Kidman Pastoral group with Chinese minority shareholding.

    • A most fascinating assessment, Bill. Makes a lot of sense. Thanks.

      Maybe you should write it up as a blog? It presents The President’s moves as wholly sensible.

      • Bill In Oz says:

        I do not think that all Duterte’s policy initiatives are sensible.. And In fact I am not sure that even this pro China initiative is sensible long term.

        Question, how reliable or predictable, is China as an ally or partner under their current regime ?

        China’s rise to prosperity and financia, & militaryl power, happened because of the huge expansion of trade with the USA post Nixon’s visit in 1971…Such developments should have encouraged the development of genuine friendly relations between China and the USA.( as it did for example between Japan & the USA in the 1950-80’s.) But that has not happened.

        However seeing Duterte’s moves is this light allows some understanding of what Duterte is up to.

    • Bill In Oz says:

      I think the Rappler report of the Chinese embassador’s comments re Duterte’s visit to China next week, is interesting.

      “MANILA, Philippines – Chinese Ambassador to the Philippines Zhao Jianhua on Friday October 14, said China will avoid discussing the historic ruling on the West Philippine Sea (South China Sea) when Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte visits Beijing.

      “You know our position on the arbitration and the award, so I don’t expect, and I don’t hope, that issues that can be divisive will be picked up,” Zhao said in a forum.

      The Philippines on July 12 won a historic arbitration case against China over the West Philippine Sea, but Zhao said both parties prefer to focus on boosting trade, among other things.

      “The visit is about friendship and cooperation. It will be focusing on the things that unite us and the things where both sides can benefit,” he explained.

      This comes as Duterte is set to make a state visit to China from October 18 to 21.

      Earlier on Friday, Philippine Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) spokesman Charles Jose said Duterte will focus on trade and investments during his trip to China.

      Business leaders told Rappler that around 400 businessmen will join this trip.

      “There will be a lot, and I mean a lot, of business contracts that will be signed,” Jose said.

      Jose, however, said he was unsure if Duterte will bring up the West Philippine Sea (South China Sea) dispute with China.

      In any case, the DFA spokesman said the plight of Filipino fishermen remains a “top priority” for Duterte. He added that the West Philippine Sea dispute “is not the sum total” of the Philippines’ ties with China.

      Duterte earlier said he is unlikely to dwell on the dispute over Panatag Shoal (Scarborough Shoal) in the West Philippine Sea during his trip to Beijing.

      “Magalit man tayo, hangin lang. ‘Di natin kaya,” Duterte said. (Even if we express anger, it will just amount to nothing. We can’t back it up.) – Rappler.com

    • NHerrera says:

      Bill,

      There is something comforting for the Philippines about that concept — warming up to China will lessen the pressure on the Philippine. And impliedly the armed conflict that may drag PH with it via collateral damage or otherwise when the two elephants engage in a shooting game.

      The US has evolved into a kindly country, probably not quite a paper tiger, but can one discount that the Strategic Interest of the US is compromised by the embrace between PH and China. And the US, just like a jealous lover may in fact cause the very conflict that PH is trying to avoid by cozying up with China according to your concept? A normally rational man does the crazy when the jealousy emotion takes control — a farfetched analogy I admit.

      I do hope you take up Joe’s encouragement for a blog that expands your thoughts. Please do.

      • Bill In Oz says:

        It’s not my intention to NHerrera…I put three comments here as it seems appropriate. to that way of seeing what Duterte is up to..But as there are 3 comments by way of response, perhaps a separate blog is not needed

  30. karlgarcia says:

    Give me a lever long enough and I could move the moon.
    -From the Chinese that told that to Archimedes.

  31. Sup says:

    this is the Davao plane owner:
    The mega TRC was donated by Huang Rulun, a Chinese businessman and philanthropist who, according to Health Secretary Paulyn Ubial, “has no business interest in the Philippines” and whose businesses are all in China.
    http://www.rappler.com/nation/149209-chinese-fund-drug-rehab-center-ph

    Buttttttttttttttt

    If he has no business in the PH why was he be able to earn in 5 years Ph enough to start a company in China?

    Huang Rulun was born in hardship in Fujian Province in southeastern China and found success in the trading business after he moved to the Philippines in 1986. He returned to China in 1991 and invested in real estate. Today his privately held real estate developer, Century Golden Resources Group, has over 20,000 employees and has invested in 20 five-star hotels and 10 shopping malls.

    http://www.forbes.com/profile/huang-rulun/

  32. Christian Cease says:

    Economic gain is only a partial and secondary Chinese objective – might even regard it as collateral. The real Chinese objective in claiming 90% of the South China Sea/West Philippine Sea is strategic advantage. That is my thesis.

    Consider this: Submarine launched nuclear missiles, ballistic or cruise, offer a massive advantage either as a first strike option because submarines could come closer to an enemy’s coastline or a guaranteed retaliatory strike because their locations are hard to detect.

    So, to increase the chances of Chinese missile submarines to go out to the Pacific undetected and equalize the US Navy’s missile submarine threat to the Chinese mainland (by deploying theirs closer to the US coastline), China needs to control the deeper waters of the South China Sea that are adjacent to the Philippines. I would venture to say that the US will never allow this to happen, unless it finds another solution – perhaps through a massive leap in military technology in tracking missile submarines.

    The Philippines has the opportunity to take advantage of its position as a pawn. Whoever leads the Philippines need to study how Cleopatra VII almost succeeded, or how she totally failed in preventing imperial Rome to happen. The world 100 years from now has its fork in the road today, and the Philippine position is its very crux.

  33. Raw l Saw 2 says:

    Maybe you are totally right in what you are saying…however there is big question roaming in my mind and im sure the president and the most common people would be thinking the same way….”Why all these things brought out just in this administration while effective preventions should happen just as the time the Chinese people put the little structure near scarborough?” If our political men were so concern about that including former pres. Ramos then this sleeping Giant could not simply streach their power up to that point of our territory…the truth is that none of these political figure in our country is patriotic enough to do the right thing but instead mumbling their mouth in the media and polishing the said in words only but their hands are extending on the pocket of China…you may not understand the point of “tatay digong….if you cant beat them, join them after all we are trading with them until now, so with our US ally. Dont you know that the Chinese made it on the second rank of world economy on their own because the world could not simply refuse their system style, the wolrd denounces their products on the reason that generally they are of substandard but the world keep on buying it…and this is because they are firm in their projections so as our country begining to do the same. Ally or no ally to these two superpowes we have to stand for our own and be like them in the sense…this is the right time with our new leader though we are small country we can be economically giant of our own…

    • I find it fascinating reading your comment, along with that of Christian Cease. He overlays the military strategy of China, you the cultural values. Both see the Philippines as crucial in the play among superpowers.

      Thanks to both of you for fresh perspectives.

  34. NHerrera says:

    Interesting turn in the discussion here on the development of the narrative concerning the “9-dash Chinese lake.” There is time and circumstance involved — the crossover of advantage to disadvantage or vice versa between the US and China: land based stations and launching pads versus flat tops and submarines, etc.

    US’s firm or “iron clad” insistence on Freedom of Navigation in waters based on international laws — to which China and its allied countries are signatories to — can be blocked only by armed might to which it (US) can more than respond to in the foreseeable future. Last I read its fleet of superb modern flat tops and submarines are still A-OK ranged against the opposition with its mis-firing missiles sold lately to the Indonesians (or are these just junk materiel being dumped on the Indonesians?).

    Time and circumstance indeed.

    [OK, I will now move on to another Tom Clancy.]

    • NHerrera says:

      A multi-player GO Board Game these World Powers play. And the Winner is …

      The enemy of my enemy is my friend, but not to forget that current resurrected friend was my enemy.

      “Its a puzzlement.”

      • karlgarcia says:

        Russia also defied or ignored an UNCLOS tribunal ruling.
        —–

        The ruling has implications not only for the SCS and the states in it, but for UNCLOS as well. If China defies the ruling, it will be the second time that a major power has ignored a ruling by a tribunal set up under UNCLOS, after Russia’s refusal to participate in the case brought against it by the Netherlands for seizure of a Greenpeace vessel and its crew. In August 2015, a tribunal had ordered Russia to pay damages, which it has refused to do. Under Article 296 of UNCLOS, tribunal rulings are final and binding on the parties.

  35. venus salas says:

    What a pity for us Filipinos, goodbye WPS…binabargain ka sa saging…

    • Raw l Saw 2 says:

      Bakit nag i export ba tayo ng saging s USA?..IT’S where we will turn our heads for a better partnership, unfortunately you wont believe that it’s china not the america

        • Sup says:

          I think there are more US guy’s using their ”bananas” in the Philippines.

          🙂

          • karlgarcia says:

            http://www.philnews.xyz/2016/10/truth-netizens-claim-duterte-rehab-project-pnoy.html?m=1

            Sup,
            Naughty,naughty on your banana comment.hehe.
            But look at the link above on how the drug rehab center was defended.

            It is true,the ppp prison project did not push through. Sinasabi lang naman na ang original plan was for a prison.
            Anong kinagagalit nila. And this no cost to the government is the same with ppp,no mattet how you spin it. Free construction? when you donate it, someone has to maintain it,so no free lunch. Walang libre libre. But, we should be thankful to the philantrophist for all his donations.
            So thank you Mr. Philantrophist.

            • Sup says:

              Ok, since it did not went through public bidding ( that would already take more then 100 day’s) put all responsible in their ”own” jail…. 🙂

              • karlgarcia says:

                hehe.
                There are many a donated properties to the government that are put to waste becayse of no budget,there are many sequestered by the government that are now useless.
                There are many housing projects that leaves the developers in tears because they can not turn it over,because of messy paper work,no water,no electricity,etc.

                This is what we expect from granting emergency powers of any sorts,there are no shortcuts.
                No short cuts,no free lunch.

              • karlgarcia says:

                More puzzles.
                The health secretary signed a deed of donation last september,but construction started at July,just as Duterte was just warming his chair.
                Definitely they now say that Duterte met with the donor prior to elections.

                Pinoy was reluctant to sign a Prison project (in the same Ft Magsaysay)because it might be called a midnight deal.

                The government now thinks that it is ok to have a sunrise deal and commence construction at sunrise. ( about July ) as long as it is a donation.Cool!

            • cruise says:

              speaking of maintenance, we are still infants (gov side) when it comes to maintenance. there are some moneys (some none) allocated for maintenance but it seems this is another big source of kurakotan (if it is not broken, don’t do anything on it is the practice, kwartahin na lang). look at pnr, it used to be the envy of southeast asia but due to lack of maintenance, the northside died, the southside slowly dying or practically dead, many of the rail path is squatter’s paradise. our elevated trains (l/mrts are having similar fates). look at our streams, rivers, canals and esteros practically not maintained, kaya we feel it when it rains.
              sana our new rehab building will be maintained too other wise it will die its slow death, baka pati ang rehab patients food maintenance ay pagdiskitahan din like sa muntilupa nbp ayon kay jv baste. but kudos to nlex (privado ito) they do good maintenance, we really see where our toll fees are going to. if finas taxes are just spent for their intended purpose, mas ganda at katakamtakam po sana ang finas at palagay ko walang mga gutom at palaboy laboy pati siguro may affordable hi rise pabahay sa mga mahihirap at ordinaryong workers (sana the gov/leaders will have a strategic vision that workers will have a walking distance to their place of work if not a one commute ride or bike commute, where there is a concentration of offices or factories, a nearby hi-rise affordable pabahay will also arise).

  36. NHerrera says:

    PROOF OF KILLINGS BY POLICE IN THIS SEASON OF ANGUISH FOR THE BARBARISM IN OUR MIDST

    This news I believe was already posted here. But I am repeating it. It is about the killing of a crime crusader in Mindoro by motorcycling men in tandem which men turned out to be police officers, one wearing a bonnet and jacket, the other a wig and mask. They were caught and wounded by responding local police.

    I can’t express my feelings better than this article of Inquirer’s Randy David:

    http://opinion.inquirer.net/98218/when-cops-turn-into-masked-killers

    What will my once greatly admired Sen Gordon say about this?

    • karlgarcia says:

      He discussed this in the senate hearings with the police chiefs present I think,let me try to look for his comments.

      • karlgarcia says:

        I could only find Lacson’s statements saying that we are not yet sure they are police.That was before more evidence came up.

        • NHerrera says:

          Thanks karl for the effort. Karl, I believe you are working overtime as Chief Librarian of The Society without additional pay. I will petition Joe to at least provide a San Mig now and then since edgar has stopped dispensing with the popcorn.

        • karlgarcia says:

          I rember he asked why no cases are filed yet.
          ——-
          Isa sa mga nakaka-shock na sinabi ng IAS ay wala pa silang nakakasuhan ni isa mang pulis. Sa pagdinig ng Senado ukol sa extrajudicial killings noong Miyerkules, tinanong ni Sen. Richard Gordon, justice and human rights committee chairman ang IAS kung mayroon na silang nakasuhan at nagulat ang senador nang sabihing wala pa. Hindi napigilan ni Gordon ang magsermon sa mga inimbitahang police officials. Tinapos na ang hea-ring sa extrajudicial killings at maraming naiwang katanungan. Wala ring gaanong nahukay sa mga pulis na sangkot sa drug killings.

          • karlgarcia says:

            He just made IAS looked like fools to champion his advocacy of a third party internal affairs preferably civilian.
            Does he mean outsource,or hire civilan government employees??
            Budget na naman!

            • NHerrera says:

              Thanks karl. A plus point for Gordon. That redeems Sen Gordon somewhat in my mind.

              It is to the credit of The Society the unwritten tradition here of admitting an error in judgment or a negative comment when confronted with facts to the contrary. I try to practice that.

  37. chemrock says:

    Andrew my money is on you. When an SC justice Caprio felt it imperative to take the trouble to prepare a presentation to brief the president on the intracies of the WPS and the latter refused to grant him an audience, there is nothing left to be said. Caprio was left to brief a few key secretaries who informed him that the president has seen his presentation. Watching a PowerPoint slide is a world of difference to listening to a learned mind. History may record that the Philippines lost those islands on whims of a president’s petulance. Caprio may term it direlection of duties.

  38. NHerrera says:

    WHAT IS THE GOAL?

    Like others here, I believe the country is entitled to a statement of the Goal of President Duterte on the pivot to China.

    By its nature the Goal may have some national security element and so that component may be left out, but the essence of the Goal have to be stated precisely because the current President is termed as a psychopath — justified or not. If we are to be like sheep, whose current Shepherd is not a Good Shepherd by any measure, we need to know.

    “I am the Good Shepherd; I know my sheep and my sheeps know me.”

    The sheeps of the Good Shepherd trust that they will not be led to the cliff in the end. But it is understandable that we, at least here in The Society, is wary where this Shepherd will lead us.

    There are sweet objectives galore being paraded — to pursue an independent foreign policy; increasing trade of “bananas” and investment not only from the traditional ones; etc — but this is not the GOAL.

    What is worse is that the Goal, unstated already as it is may be underpinned by other than national interest.

    • NHerrera says:

      The following article which appeared in the Inquirer and authored by former President Ramos gives nuances to my comment above. It is very appropriately praised and gives due credit to his Chinese counterpart in the discussion. FVR talked about items that will bring trust-building between the Philippines and China — to which his counterpart agreed.

      http://opinion.inquirer.net/98206/breaking-the-ice-in-south-china-sea

      I hope that contrary to the impression we get from the mouthings of President Duterte, he takes FVR’s report into consideration when he makes that important visit to China in October 18-21.

  39. cwl says:

    When I was in college ( early Martial Law years ), my political science professor always insisted that there is no rule of one ( pertaining to Marcos dictatorship) nor rule of many ( pertaining to the era before Marcos declared ML) but always there is rule of few.
    And I think that holds true today in the country under Duterte. He could have a selected trusted few with him at center charting the country’s pivot towards China.
    And i believe that the core leadership have already decided that USA is on the way out as Pacific and Asian power and that members of that group are just positioning themselves to maintain their hold on the Philippine society, politically and economically.
    We saw that happened in early 1900s when the elite embraced the Americans as their new masters when it was clear that Spain was an empire past.
    The Philippine elite has a very inglorious record not to consider the idea that they will embrace China as what they did to America before.

    • NHerrera says:

      Embrace one; but dis-embrace another which recent history shows is not as bad as the one He is trying to embrace now. Why? What is the motivation behind the unstated Goal?

      “Is a puzzlement.”

  40. I hope Duterte supporters would just think and really think. We have a lot to loose in dealing with China. The things we will get from China (ie business deals/contracts, financial support, etc) is minuscule compared to what we will be loosing.

    • Ybarra Crisostomo says:

      We will lost what specifically? Let me just remind you, Panatag Shoal is not our territory. Explorations on WPS for natural gas was done through partnership with foreigners, see the Malampaya, it is 90% owned by foreign owned corporation and 10% owned by Philippine goverment.

      • I think the issue is, under whose laws will joint exploration, development and production occur? Because the EEZ exploration rights at Panatag belong entirely to the Philippines, the Philippines must, constitutionally, insist that agreements be bound by Philippine law. China has not accepted this in the past. Partners can be from anywhere.

        By way of introduction, may I ask, are you Filipino? Where are you located? What is your interest in the Philippines? Thanks.

        • Ybarra Crisostomo says:

          It would be best if exploration, development and priduction would be under the laws of the Philippines. But it should be really covered by a law? Or just agreements that would benefit both parties the most? I believe China would want this before the 2012 standoff that chilled the relationship of both countries.

          I am a Filipino, i live here in the Philippines and I support its President.

          • It is not a matter of choice. The Philippines remains a nation of laws under the Constitution. The president is not empowered to deal sovereign rights away. Read Assoc SC Justice Carpio on this matter.

            • Ybarra Crisostomo says:

              I believe that no one has the power to deal sovereign rights, but we are talking here is EEZ rights. Justice Carpio is right, we will protect it, and we will. Joint exploration of it is not a violation of constitution. Look for Malampaya.

              • Malampaya is operated under the laws of the Philippines. Joint exploration is allowed. It would not be allowed if development were under the laws of China. That is the sovereign sticking point, or has been in the past. China’s opening requirement is to recognize Chinese sovereignty over the locations to be developed.

                Kindly define “we”. Are you a member of the Duterte staff?

              • karlgarcia says:

                Ybarra,
                I am not here to call you a propagandist,if you think that I am one,fine with me.
                I may question Duterte a lot,but he can not be wrong all the time.

                I agree,we must avoid war as much as possible.
                Our sovereign rights allows us to explore,fish,etc and we must protect that rights according to our constituotion mbut International laws state that we allow passage and allow them to loiter at our EEZ.
                For me local laws trump international laws if they are doing more than just passing by,we must tell them to leave,and if they won’t?

                Then this will never end,but should we trust them right away,as you suggested.
                Look at their history of poaching,bullying,etc.

                You might say we talk to the Chinese,what if the WPS would not be in the agenda for their whole stay there,not even a close door meeting.
                As of today,the DFa is not sure if WPS will be a subject matter.

              • Ybarra Crisostomo says:

                @The Society, “we” are the Filipinos who believe that our country needs reforms.

  41. caliphman says:

    Its not clear to me that Chinese territorial claims are in conflict with our maritime rights and obligations as expressed in the UNCLOS rulings and the Philippine constitution. Whether China owns or not the sunken or partially submerged rocks at Panatag or other places has nothing to do with rights of underwater exploitation, fishing, and navigation in the seas surrounding it. The biggest direct negative impact of the current dispute in Panatag is it deprives the country of one of its richest fishing grounds, which even China and other nations are also entitled to under UNCLOS. The constitution binds the Philippine government from selling or giving away its sovereignity over the country’s land and territorial seas, tne latter of course being defined by international law (read UNCLOS) or as may be gleaned from local law or prior SC decisions. The US interest is not enforcing UNCLOS but preserving freedom of navigation of the seas or airspace including in EEZ or the 12 mile territorial seas limits. For the Philippines to join or not join US naval vessels in patrolling and enforcing navigation rights within its EEZ signifies nothing as we have never taken up the role as guarantoror defender of such a right globally. Whether the country enters in a joint exploration agreement with a foreign partner of its EEZ natural resources should not be legally or ethically problematical more than many such similar partnerships in mining minerals and metals on Philippine ground. Perhaps much of this furor is premature or unwarranted? Maybe its just better to wait and see,

    • caliphman says:

      Its is good to recall that the previous administration also had a two pronged strategy in resolving the precursor crisis with China which had to do with a standoff over fishing right at Panatag. The first was headed by DFA which centered on appealing internationally and the US in finding a way to solve the standoff and the second was to engage in furtive bilateral talks using Trillanes as the presidential emissary. As I understand it, the talks failed when an agreement to deescalate the crisis by a mutual pullout of the sole Philippine naval vessel and the few remaining Chinese coast guard cutters was not honored and only the Philippines left on the appointed day. So a bilateral approach may work except the agreement should have been written, publicized and confirmed at a highest of levels to avoid another fiasco.

  42. Off topic:

    To somebody whose articles, and comments here at The Society and at FB I truly respect. May God bless your union!!

    May your marriage be filled with all the right ingredients: a heap, no, not just a heap..lots and lots of love, dashes and dashes of humor, unlimited touches of romance, and a million spoonfuls of understanding. May your joy last forever. Congratulations!

  43. Ka hec says:

    Maybe, but just maybe only, that duterte chose only whom to those two superpowers would be our seat backrest. Maybe it is china just because of its rising into world power. We cannot deny the truth that there will always be only one superpower country to rule. Always attached to a decision is to choose. But i believe that he is doing this sacrifice only for our safety, and i believe on what he just said that there would no 2nd world war if the americans were not here.

  44. Estrang Jero says:

    Paranoia, you’re so concerned about building walls you already forgot how to co-exist.

  45. pak_yellowshits says:

    galing mo kaso isa kang yellowshits kaya ungas ka rin paksyet! di uto uto mga tao ngayon dahil alam namin isa kang bayaran ng yellowshits

  46. Jason says:

    Not digong fault. We were stronger when were with marcos then next administrations had been so dependent with the Americans. In history ninoy Aquino sold Sabah and perhaps noynoy too sold the west Philippine sea or Scarborough. They should have protected or prevented it to happen and now they are blaming digong with their incompetence. In my opinion the Aquino or yellow could have done worst.

    • My gawd, I hate idiot analysts who visit this blog and fill it with tripe that someone else made up for them to spew, so much regurgitation from the ailing brains of the amoral. 10

      • caliphman says:

        This is the weakness of a blog’s anonymity. How many people would stand up in front of an audience who could recoognize them and spout gibberish showing their utter stupidity and ignorance? 11

  47. Pabloinnasidman says:

    Thanks,

    But I do not propose or use it as an excuse for pursuing that direction. I see it as almost inevitable seeing the present situation. We seem to agree that China will see Philippines as a resource to be exploited. I am afraid that with the one-child policy and the imbalance of the sexes in China, the resources will be mainly human. I see a bleak future for the Filipino’s apart from the ones who are already abroad. The country will be raped, but as you said: it seems to be what is wanted. Darwin’s Law, maybe. But still a bleak future. In the mean time, we will not give up, naturally, there still is hope that something will change. Michelle Obama said it just right recently. Hope is an essential part of life.
    But still, as an engineer, i would not.like to build on the current foundation.

    • Your scenario makes a lot of sense, actually. The poor were in a hurry and voted emotionally, and so are likely to remain poor. The educated and well-to-do who voted for Duterte were also impatient, I guess, and did not see hope in the Philippines as a rising star. Pity.

  48. Mayette Del Rosario says:

    This article makes me sad but this is all true. Irreversible, walang bawian or else gyera tayo. Yan ang sasabihin satin ng mga intsik.

  49. karlgarcia says:

    For the right to defend only???

  50. tonytran2015 says:

    It is no surprise to any reader of Chinese history.

    China is practicing the policies of Forever Expanding and Strike-then-Consolate (named Talk and Take by the author).

    I have compiled the following two short blogs to explain those games to Phillipinos, Indonesians and the naive Western policy makers.

    https://survivaltricks.wordpress.com/2017/04/01/%e2%80%8bunderstanding-chinas-perpetual-wars-against-its-neighbours/

    https://survivaltricks.wordpress.com/2017/04/03/%e2%80%8bunderstanding-the-strike-then-consolate-tactic/

  51. Buddy Sulfurcrest says:

    China will be a country of retirement homes ( if they had such facilities which they, won’t , more so their expansionist days will be over , other than there waste lines, that’s about it for China’s takeover, in another 5-10 year . So hang fire hope the philipinas finally work out brains from bull dust when it comes to elections ; & hope they’ve not destroyed things beyond repair, ?

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