Winter is coming, be prepared!
By Chemrock
The disappearing president is dead as the people of Malawi suspected. His death was hushed up to prevent the swearing in of the deputy president and to enable the installation of someone else to the presidency. Calm down, I am not referring to Marawi but the African state of Malawi, 2013 and President Bingu wa Mutharika. Africa is full of heads of state who disappear for days, sometimes timed at periods when people were suffering. Many of those who disappeared resurrected themselves days later, others never made it back. Robert Mugabe of Zimbabe resurrected a few times. The Malawi homonym is not meant to be a joke. Listen to this — these disappearing African presidents all built institutions that center around personalities and their allies, instead of creating strong independent institutions to serve the people.
On the other side of the globe, during the height of election, Hillary Clinton had a fall and they shortly announced publicly she was suffering from pneumonia and was receiving medication. Here, all indications point to a president having a serious health issue which are being brushed off. For his report that the president is gravely ill, Kit Tatad was lambasted and cursed with enlarged testicles and venereal disease. If that were the fate for believing the president is very sick, then there are millions of Filipinos walking around with enlarged testicles.
The people have a right to know of a leader’s state of health as expressly stated in the Constitution :
Section 12. In case of serious illness of the President, the public shall be informed of the state of his health. The members of the Cabinet in charge of national security and foreign relations and the Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces of the Philippines, shall not be denied access to the President during such illness.
Unexplained physical absence of a leader exposes poor leadership. In countries with poor democratic institutions, the death of a leader causes a power vacuum. It is for this reason that the Constitution has a Section 12. The people need to be prepared. I wish the president good health but given what is already public knowledge about his medical condition, we need to stare at his mortality or incapacity in the face and consider the consequences.
Let me be very clear here. This is not a clarion call to go to the streets. ‘Be prepared’ as Baden Powell would have it. Team Robredo ought to have a good game plan to hit the dirt running, and those that clamour for real change ought to ask what they can do, as individuals, as groups of like-minded Filipinos, what part can they play, to help Philippines return to a state of normalcy, of a people in pursuit of better lives, not killings. Without an organised opposition and a shadow cabinet in Philippines politics, it took Duterte a very long time to assemble his cabinet. That displayed a candidate in 2016 well prepared for electioning but not for governance. Team Robredo had better make sure they don’t repeat this feet dragging because she will inherit a country under stress and instability.
Philippine political leadership have mostly been reactive. Note how long it took the Mar Roxas team to realise the impact of the well-organised social media strategy of his competitors until it was too late. Note how much everyone under-estimated the black propagandas of Bongbong. I first noticed Marcos revisionism almost ten years ago when most people put it off as vain attempts to whitewash the family name. The nonchalance of the locals to this attack on Filipino sensibilities and the dangers it hold for the country, baffled me for years. When it eventually became apparent the end game to the Marcos revisionists was a sequel to the evil emperor, the irrevocable damage was evident in 2016 election. A serious Team Robredo need to move several steps ahead of the competition, and the Oracle of Delphi says beware the health of the president.
“Be prepared” is the motto that Baden Powell gave to the Scout Movement he founded. In its simplicity, it challenged kids to acquire badges for excellence in various fields, from tenderfoot to a chest full of accolades to become an eagle scout. The idea was to impress young minds to a positive ideal of always able to handle situations that life may throw our way. The movement taught kids to simply enjoy a healthy outdoor life ingrained with civic responsibilities and a moral compass. There are now about 28 million boy scouts worldwide, testimony to the wonderful gift the founder gave to the world for which he was made a Baron. In Philippines, great sacrilege has been committed when the adult leaders of the local scout movement chose a high corruption-tainted vice-president as the Chief Scout. That act was later surpassed by replacing the latter with a foul-mouthed and violent sitting president, whose first personal address to the kids was a call to take up arms to kill drug users and peddlers. This is symptomatic of Filipino society that shows time and again, the inability of institutional leaders to take ownership of their own mandates and instead prostrate themselves before an emperor.
The way I see it, institutions for goodness, for peaceful, lawful way of life, are falling like nine pins. The Army maintains a 50-50 chance that professionalism may prevail. The Office of the Ombudsman is the last vestige of rule of law in the land but the Ombudsman retires in a year’s time. The Supreme Court waivers in its great responsibilities as justices with tendency for judicial activism are tipping the scale of justice. For the majority of peace loving Filipinos flying the democratic banner, there is no Pac-Man defense. This is a defense strategy in a hostile takeover where the targeted company turns around and acquire equities of their unwanted suitor and thus regain control. All other institutions of the country have been weakened and compromised by men and women who swear blind loyalty to a president who said “The constitution means nothing to me”. All these corrupted institutions are the ghosts in a Pac-Man game coming after you, and there are no power pellets for you so there is no way to eat the ghosts. And these ghosts will come after Leni in broad daylight.
In the event of the demise of the president, will there be a peaceful transition of power? There is real danger of corrupted institutional leaders coalescing around another chosen leader to retain their spheres of power. In their heart of hearts, all incumbent institutional leaders know they have broken laws when they did so. The triumvirate of Aguirre-Calida-Panelo know they have dragged Philippines book of laws through the mud. PNP leadership knows their hands are blood-stained. Many in the Executive know they have spent a major part of their time in office politiking rather than serve the public. Sycophants in the Legislative know they don’t sit in the house to protect the interest of the people, but for personal gains and family interests in some mines in Mindanao etc. There will be powerful voices who will back forces of chaos to save their posteriors. The Pnoy admin went after the corrupt officials of Arroyo, a Leni Robredo presidency is bound to go after officials who broke laws. Those that have abused power are afraid of a President Robredo and people with lots to lose are a dangerous breed.
There have been much talk of assassination plots on the president which is really ludicrous. Duterte critics are by far peace loving, law-abiding, and democratic people, the very type that Candidate Duterte derided when he told Mar Roxas “If you do not dare to kill, you are not fit to be president.” Only masochistic, power-crazed, impunity, rent-seeking people live by the guns and they shoot birds of the same feather and some. Should the president slowly retreat into oxygenated rooms like Ferdinand Marcos, then assassination attempts on the VP is a very clear and present danger. Once again, the Oracle of Delphi sighed and say beware he who challenges, whose family have killed for money and power. I certainly hope Team Robredo takes this very seriously.
What about the hordes of people who mass fist salutes, who go wild in social media with new-found courage to curse and threaten those whose opinions do not jive with theirs? Most are harmless ranters, perhaps misguided, often ranting as a bravado exercise. Some may be true believers of whatever populism of the day is, and they are entitled to such inclinations. There should be no wave of righteous assaults on them. However much the incivilities are hated, freedom of expression is worth respecting. But libelous postings and propagation of fake news are something else. A Leni admin will face a terribly difficult mountain to climb as the president has allowed the ground to split into two warring camps, but it’s not a Sisyphean endeavour. Embrace the objections and the criticisms of these people and never be seen to be exclusive towards them in policies. Focus on results in governance and some can be persuaded to re-evaluate their views. Be the greatest nation builder as Duterte has been the greatest divider. The colour yellow has been irreparably smeared. Let us gift Leni a coat of many colors, and if there are Filipinos who react like the ten brothers of Joseph in Genesis, we know how the story ended.
But there must be no place in important government jobs for people like Mr Darwin Canete. June 12, Philippines Independence Day, a day of celebration and rejoicing, and a public prosecutor incites social media followers to kill people who don’t share his views! People like him must be booted out at all costs. It’s scums like him that prevent Philippines from moving forward. The country’s investment in his education has been a total waste, a sad saga of opportunities denied to others more deserving. There should be no witch hunt, but peace and law-abiding civil servants who want to do something decent for their country must themselves weed their organisation of these scums. The minor appointments may be ignored, but those with decision-making authority much like Mr Canete, ought to be held accountable.
I asked what can ordinary people do, those who have had enough of the rut the country is in? Civil disobedience and another Edsa is out of the question. Your pesos will hit 60 to the dollar. Power lies in you and your votes if only you vote wisely in the next election and educate those around you. Just take responsibility and effort to learn your candidates. And I do mean really learn, not just listening to their sweet words but measure them against their deeds both in and out of office. I never understood the sycophants in Congress and the Senate. Why do a turncoat to gain favors of an Executive that garnered 38% of the votes and antagonise 62% majority? The majority should punish the likes of Sotto and a whole bunch of game players in both Houses come Election 2019. There are many things you may not like that are represented in both Houses. Simply drop these candidates. Federalism, impunity, vulgarity, moral decadence, turncoats, those who want 9 old kids in prison, death penalty lovers, those who can’t see EJKs, etc, which is your pet hate. For me, turncoatism is about the most decadent behaviour. These are people who stab you in the back. They are the primary reason why it is so difficult to govern the country. Retake Congress and the Senate from those scumbags and Philippines have a chance of moving forward. Just make your vote count is all.
For the Leni haters, I say to them. Show me any elected politician who holds no official appointment, has an office budget that’s drastically reduced by cabinet drooling to see her fail, and sacrificed the palatial office of the prior VP to move into a smaller office to save cost for the government. Show me any politician in the land who can walk the talk about helping the poor like Leni. Her advocacy for the poor was no boast. To fund her advocacy for the poor, she garnered private enterprise support for her projects. Her projects are works in humility, no Leni posters or banners, no Leni faces on packages or boxes, no “L” on crosses or rosaries. Instead, all contributors are honoured with names and amounts listed for all to see. If you wish to see the list, click here. In a year when many champions of the poor are loud, Leni silently took leadership to spread 53 million pesos to the deserving, with many more projects under review. Not a single centavo extracted from the tax-paying public.
Leaders have important matters to attend to, whilst those with time on hand and idle minds concern themselves with trivialities. These are Cinderella stories that enliven the massa and a total waste of energies for leaders to respond. I will go low and partake one such incident currently trending because it draws out the goodness of the VP. One Facebook commenter, Dr Eli Alegardo, severely criticised Leni for rummaging through garbage in Harvard, thereby damaging the good reputation of bigshot OFW Filipinos like him. This comment went viral. Dr Alegardo prefaced his comment with some self-aggrandisement, a boast of a Best Physician of the Year award, and of course some photos of hand-shaking with some US congressmen at award ceremony. He did not declare the award was just a piece of paper for donating $1,250 to some US Congressional committee, in other words, basura. Thumping down Leni was just an opportunity to build up his faux importance. It takes one lacking in integrity to talk of integrity. Leni has the humility to help her daughter collect used furniture pieces at a popular recycle center, a time-honored practice of undergrads, as the young scholar settles down in her dorm in Harvard University. Had she wanted designer furniture for daughter Aika, all Leni has to do is to make a few phone calls, and there will be many corporates more than happy to sponsor her and have them shipped all the way to the US. Once again, Leni has shown there is nothing plastic about her and she is careful with money. Asec badass Badoy once again was quick to show her ugly side as she jumped on the bandwagon to insult the VP. It showed Dr Badoy, just like Dr Alegardo, has no respect for people who don’t have millions and who cherish frugality. Leni is the unusual kind of leader that Philippines need – resourceful, dedicated, honest, no frills, and who walks amongst the poor. The Harvard incident is no shame, it clearly demonstrates here is a lady who can look after the purse of the country. She is in the mold of servant-leader, a rare breed similar to Pnoy. If there were ten Leni’s, Philippines will fly. As there is only one Leni, treasure and support her when winter comes and see what she can achieve for the people.
The Society of Honor by Joe America 
thanks for this detailed, comprehensive article..really enjoyed reading and demonstrated your efficiency and credence in the light of Leni’s detractors..keep up the good work, Chemrock…you can grind and nail down those bastards
Thanks Tina. Time to roll up sleeves.
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1. Powerful.
2. There should be no need for oracles to speak. The signs are clear.
3. Nevertheless, because people play blind, deaf, and dumb, oracles must speak.
4. May people listen, understand, and heed — take to heart — the warnings.
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Since Filipinos are where the Greeks were before the philosophers – mired in superstition – it takes an oracle to drive the message home.
Hope people stop hoping for another EDSA 1. The days of innocence are definitely over.
Indeed days of innocence are gone. Seems the SC just closed the door.
No argument Chemrock about Leni. The basura about her helping her daughter in Boston is just base basura.
But with Dutters ? Well he is the elected king of the Philippines – or should I say ‘elected emperor ‘ ?
He will arrange his time as he sees fit. And if he wants to spend some time in seclusion for whatever reason, then he will.
The constitution says otherwise. But frankly that clause flies in the face of age old political reality which is what determines actual behaviour.
Yes Bill, power looks down from the barrel of a gun, even it it’s a Chinese army reject.
Here is one perspective that requires faith in the Christian scriptures, as told in Revelations:
I predict much, much suffering and cataclysm in the coming immediate future.
The likes of Trump, Erdogan, Duterte, the tinpot dictators in Africa, and the denial of climate change, the erosion of democratic institutions, the death of civility, the blurring of right and wrong, plus massive manipulation via the internet will usher in the end times.
The ensuing chaos and despair these people and their ideologies bring will make people seek a “savior” who can restore order amidst the chaos. And that could very well be the Anti-Christ himself.
Trump, Duterte and their cousins are not the Anti-Christ, but they are surely enabling his arrival.
Though I am still optimistic that good will triumph over evil eventually, it always comes at a very high price. It has always been like that. People react only when it is too late.
In my view, another tell-tale sign that the end times are coming is when massive numbers of people justify evil as necessary to attain a supposedly noble objective (ex. Trumps’ justification for his tweets, Duterte’s EJKs.)
In the local scene, people laugh at rape jokes.
Are there any cognitives out there who can corroborate if they detect the presence of malevolent forces as people laugh at these jokes? Because one point of view is that only the Evil One has the power to make people laugh at these.
“Those who forsake the law praise the wicked, but those who keep the law strive against them. Evil men do not understand justice, but those who seek the Lord understand it completely. …”
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1. That’s sad and disturbing when people feel the end time is near.
2. Indeed, as I look around, the weight of evil, like darkest night, seems to press so heavily that the good is crushed beneath and hardly any light escapes.
3. I have always felt that the universe is purposive and that there is a moral order to the universe. That evil will be punished and the good rewarded. As Kant put it: “Two things fill the mind with ever new and increasing admiration and awe, the more often and steadily we reflect upon them: the starry heavens above me and the moral law within me.”
3.1. The former is (objectively) there for all to see and the latter, from my view, is (subjectively) self-evident… and other-evident. I mean I see it in myself and I see it in others.
3.2. It is a gross understatement to say that my faith, like yours, is being sorely tested.
4. The end time is a paradigm of all religions. A common feature is the arrival or return of a Savior. Wikipedia notes that the end time is linear in the Abrahamic religions and cyclic in the Eastern ones.
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/End_time
4.1. A paradigm of religion is of necessity a paradigm of the human mind. It is a way of thinking. We know that the mind has ways — patterns or templates — of apprehension. Correlation, causation, reasoning, purpose, pareidolia, synesthesia – all of these are patterns. Even in madness, there is method.
4.2. What we do not know is whether our patterns of apprehension align with Reality.
5. Should oracular prophecies then – and specifically that of the end of time, the Last Days – be given credence?
5.1. There are many versions and they all differ. So it comes down to Faith. As I have maintained, all Faiths are valid and true not only in the subjective sense that each is an experiential reality but also in the objective sense that each is a possible reality. There is superposition… and the wave function may not collapse to a single reality. As there is a plurality of states, there may also be a plurality of outcomes.
5.2. We know that Purpose – which is a pattern of mind — is not a given. When I say we live in a purposive universe, I do not mean that I have an inkling of what that purpose is. Or that I truly believe there is one that is foreordained and can be foretold. I even doubt there is a moral order; certainly, the external evidence suggests against there being one.
5.3. But if like Kant, we are cognizant of the moral law within, then we are impelled – not by fear but by integrity – to abide by it. In our lives, we either find and practice our personal purpose or create it. Or not at all. And character is fate.
5.4. This is to say that character – individual and collective – is fate. Accordingly, as individual character changes, so must collective character and fate change.
5.5. Perhaps, this open-endedness is also true of the fate of the nation, the world, and the universe. This may cause some to despair. It causes most to err in the sense that they are not aligned interiorly. It causes others to hope, and to live by that hope. It causes some of the latter to rise to the challenge.
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To put it simply, during time of despair , there is always a flicker of hope. It is up to us to turn that hope into faith and stronger we face the challenges.
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Thea, thanks. You condensed superbly what I wanted to convey.
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Nice, Edgar.
Leaving out faith of whatever religious preference, Mother Nature has had enough. Earth is going into it’s death throes. Many, such as Trump, are not concerned because it won’t happen in our lifetime.
In Europe, xenophobia is reaching record levels, where even food has become a lightning rod for extremist right wing nationalists. Justifying it as preserving their heritage, they are campaigning to ban “foreign food” from places like Forence, France, etc.
https://www.eater.com/2017/6/30/15892900/italy-ban-ethnic-foreign-food-immigrants-kabab-nationalism
That is true but xenophobia thing is debatable and it is contrary to these news.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2575724/Parents-fury-pork-sausages-banned-school-menu-replaced-halal-meat.html
http://www.ilgiornale.it/news/cronache/pisa-scuola-vieta-mortadella-rispetto-ai-bimbi-islamici-1409531.html
Translation: Pisa-school-forbid-mortadella-respect to Muslim children
When thousands arrive on your coast in a daily basis not as tourists but immigrants with no work nor papers, you must be alarmed. By humanitarian reason, these immigrants(most illegals) are being given free medical services,free education, refuge/house and daily allowances. Which is clearly a big cut in the public budget. IMHO, it is no xenophobia,it is an acrobatic move between taking care of your ground while being kind to thousands of people who entered in your perimeter.
Creative. Powerful. You did it again. The juxtaposition to develop the article is superb: the case of African Malawi President, Baden Powell, “hitting the dirt running,” your recall of what BBM was up to ten years ago, not repeating the sins of ill-preparedness of the past. Great work and thanks, Chemrock.
It may just turn the winter into spring. if the signs are heeded and we act accordingly!
Forgot to mention the picture accompanying the article to put the exclamation mark to the article — your idea or Joe’s? In any case, thanks to both of you for publishing the article.
Thanks HHerrera. I came across the picture by chance.
I was just thinking, we have not been writing with SEO (search engine optimisation) on mind. The one I did with some SEO thinking was the Bangladesh robbery.
Alegado’s rant about VP Robredo on FB:
It is a shame that a FilAm doctor in the US is either not aware of the 3 R’s or he is not environmentally savvy.
Here is an EPA link about being good steward of Mother Earth:
https://www.epa.gov/recycle
It is not frowned upon in the US to REDUCE, REUSE or RECYCLE. A lot of Americans are very proud of helping the environment. There are a lot of sensible movements that are cropping up to minimize waste, carbon footprints, greenhouse gases, pollution and other deleterious factors that may hasten global warming.
To those who are condemning VP Leni for recycling and reusing: GET ON WITH THE TIMES! HELP THE EARTH!
What is actually shameful is his support for the Marcoses, whose history of plunder and oppression he conveniently denies.
Which is more shameful, rummaging through rubbish vs plundering your country and revising history to suit your nefarious objectives?
Thanks for that info, Andrew. I did not know that he is a Marcos’ toady. That explains the pettiness about the VP. I thought he is just afflicted with the climate change denier or the “matapobre” syndrome.
Eli B. Alegado” My heart is 100% Filipino and my mind is owned by the world.”
Ok Dok….but…….Finish your study in PH and fill your pockets in USA and Canada….Why not you not help Filipinos to become a rural doctor in lets say……..Marawi?
I did’nt know that too, so that’s where the angst was coming from. His practice should be destroyed if only his US patients know aboiut it.
Although it would not come as a surprise to me that a person like Alegado would support the Marcoses – but I am curious if this information is based on personal knowledge (andrewlim8) of Alegado or is it from a news item or a personal declaration from Alegado?
I am in total agreement in preparing for a post-Duterte scenario. However, there is also a need to acknowledge that in the current environment, such preparations would be interpreted as an intent to destabilize or overthrow the government especially since there is much effort in denying that he is about to go. Damn if you do, damn if you don’t. What a mess.
I would like to tell this Fil-Am doctor that Leni Robredo, Vice-President of the Republic of the Philippines is NOT a fake VP as he puts it. He was declared winner by the COMELEC. The same COMELEC which declared Rodrigo Duterte, now President of the Republic of the Philippines as the winner. If your premise is that VP is a fake one, then it follows that Rodrigo Duterte is also a fake president. Now, where did you get that fake thing? I guess you have been reading fake news.
Now, with regards to this issue, I read that Harvard sends recyclable items for the students. She merely teacher her daughter to be frugal. As a Harvard scholar, she is not raking in Money. The best scholarship is actual the Japanese Government Scholarship program since, whether tightening belt or not, it is still generous with financial assistance. But scholarships anywhere else in the world, whether, US, UK, Europe requires a great belt tightening. Why not donate to her instead of bashing Leni for being frugal. After all, even as VP, she is not raking in money either. And shouldn’t we be glad that she is not using government money to support her daughter? Unlike the Marcoses, etc. etc.
What a a moron this doctor is.
“Boys will be girls and girls will be boys
It’s a mixed up muddled up shook up world except for Lola” …a line in the Kink’s song Lola (name of a bacla, not grandma)
For being frugal, VP gets condemned. It’s OK for a presidential junket to Russia bringing with him a whole bunch of hangers on, even if chartered flight meant no marginal costs, hotels and meals are’nt free..
Marcos claims election was compromised, he was cheated of VP vote. But a compromised election and Duterte’s votes are OK. Was Mar Poe cheated?
Boastful Aligado does not deserve the recognition he had. What a shameful character. I would not consult him for anything👎🏻
The high and mighty will have their day of reckoning. He probably lost some patients because of his awful post.
SOMEWHAT OFF TOPIC
Talk about winter, what has recently happened in the Korean Peninsula is a look ahead of a possible and fearsome world winter.
The North Korean claimed that its “July 4” missile test “gift” to Trump flew 2800 km in altitude and 930 km in range. With its satellite technology and analysis, the US, SK, and Japan must have confirmed this claim (altitude/range). With that basic data, even elementary Newtonian Mechanics — which I did myself — confirms that with a flatter trajectory, with the same missile engine, NK can convert the missile flight to a range of about 6000 km with a corresponding decreased altitude, and bingo, Alaska is now a good target.
Now putting a nuclear warhead in that missile and solving what was earlier mentioned as “re-entry” problem so the warhead does not go kaput or burned on re-entry to its final target is of course debatable. But prudence dictates that one assumes NK has achieved some breakthrough with this recent missile test.
(Sorry for this insertion, but nuclear winter is scary to me on a higher level than our possible local winter.)
We are 3,102 kilometers from North Korea.
Whose missile defense will save us if we become a target?
Those leaked transcripts real or imagined about Duterte and Trump might be reason enough to make us a target.
China and Russia won’t stop them, all they can do is say it is unacceptable.(missile tests to the real thing)
Although, the Philippines is on the missile flight path which might makes us a probable collateral damage during a missile failure, the country is not on the North Korea’s Hate List. Aside, the Philippines is the third largest trading partner of North Korea. http://www.worldstopexports.com/north-koreas-top-import-partners/ Add that to Kim and Pres. Duterte’s similarity. Only similar minds can understand what plays inside their brains. Most likely,they will evade antagonising one another.
Thanks for your inputs Thea. Glad to know that we are not on Nokor’s hate list.
Thea, karl,
It is comforting to know that KJU may reserve those nuclear-tipped missiles for targets the likes of US, SK, Japan, but the radiation fallout from a lot of high-powered nuclear bombs unleashed — unlike the puny Hiroshima, Nagasaki ones — may not spare us. Especially if that event happens during the Amihan Season.
There are really no winners in a thermo nuclear war.😕
Another chilling prediction that may result in runaway inflation from the article below. ING Bank, a Dutch financial institution, forecasted that due to US rates increase and instability of domestic politics, the peso may weaken further this year and through 2018:
http://www.manilatimes.net/peso-weaken-yr-2018-ing/336614/
High inflation and a government budget anchored by foreign and domestic loans and tax increases do not bode well for the nation and its people.
JP, thanks for the link. I have not followed the oil price development, so I hope oil price in dollar terms does not rise too — for if the two come together (P/USD and oil price) then transport and electricity prices will go up, etc.
For oil prices to rise, watch for Trump-Putin co-operation. If all goes well for both of them, US will lift economic sanctions, then they will allow oil prices to soar again.
But oil prices will only rise if demand picks up. And that is just what is not on the careds in the immediate future. See here Chemrock
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-07-02/next-financial-crisis-not-far-away:
Bill, yes we know the price of oil like most things, is subject to supply and demand. And yes, demand has slowed tremendously which partly explains the drop in prices. US machination has been responsible for the direction of price movement of oil, despite the fact there is OPEC. Oil has been priced down to kill Russian economy.
I have been writing of economic doomsday for quite sometime. There are pessimists like me, but there are equally many optimists, including many here in TSH. Of course I certainly hope I’m terribly wrong, but I fear the worse. One of Spain’s largest bank Banco Popular went under a few months bank. Santander Bank had to do national service and buy out BP to prevent a contagion in the banking system. This is a symptom EU’s problems are not yet over. Italian banks are on the brink. All indicators in US — bond market, equities markets, derivatives,— they all point to bursting at the seams, but they are all still holding.
Bill, interesting series of charts in that link.
But before I proceed —
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My head aches and more intensely so when price rises. I have collected data and made an obsession of doing so. Then I made a correlation and lo and behold the correlation coefficient is better than 0.95. Does that mean that high prices drive my head aches or the other way around? Then not content with that I observed, and then started to collect a lot of data too — that when the wife’s complaining is low my head ache is less intense and when she complains the whole day because of prices my head ache is more intense. Thus, I correlated the length and intensity of my wife’s complaint and found that it correlates well with my head ache. So now I find that the cause of my head ache is not the high prices but my wife’s complaint.
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— The above is of course contrived. But what made me uncomfortable with the findings of the link is the conclusion that energy consumption drives economic activity. There is correlation but causation is another matter. Economic activity driving energy consumption, rather than the other way around? There is also the matter of efficiency so less consumption as technology improves. More AI?
A lot of pretty charts, I must admit.
(Just my opinion. My betters here at TSH can punch holes with this kind of thinking, knee-jerk, I must admit.)
Have you looked into Zero Hedge reputation? Is it a credible reference?
I read the article and it contains some grains of truth but its doomsday theme turned me off. Further reading grouped it with Breitbart, Drudge Report and Fox News. It reeks of Pro-Russian and pro-authoritarian rhetorics. I respect your freedom but I, myself, am not fond of alt right rags.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zero_Hedge
http://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Zero_Hedge
http://business.inquirer.net/232545/ing-bullish-ph-economy
A different presentation of the ING findings
Is PDI trying to walk on eggshells not to ruffle the feathers of the powers that be and fend off the attack of the flying monkeys?
I thought the Manila Times is pro-Duterte and the Inquirer is anti-Duterte.
Me, too. That was quite a role reversal in reporting. Ah, things that make one go, hmmmm…
hmmm.
O.T. Very interesting background about Duterte changing mind always….This is about Marawi.
http://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news/nation/617032/duterte-pushed-deal-to-end-marawi-siege-then-backed-out-muslim-leader/story/
Very insightful write-up but it brought me cold spine. It is about the danger that our VP Leni might face in case of the demise of the President.
Absolutely Thea.
Compelling! Again Chemrock you rock! 👍
I can feel the chills as winter is nearing. May Leni be protected when the time comes and hoping all the growing opposition unite behind her.
Nothing else chills the blood than a Venezuelan preview of what’s to come:
http://news.abs-cbn.com/overseas/07/06/17/venezuelan-lawmakers-beaten-besieged-in-latest-violence
Jimenez-David laments the oversaturation of hate speech becoming the new normal as we are seen as a hostile nation:
http://opinion.inquirer.net/105358/why-the-deluge-of-hate
I cannot know what breaking point would come in what form: will this regime be able to show its iron hand, or a popular revolt because the people have been scammed? But I know that PRRD has General Bato but no equivalent of General Fabian Ver, without which to carry out his Final Solution.
My oh my, the opposition led Congress was attacked by pro-administration militants.
Good thing it has not happened here yet, all I recall was the fisticuffs between a congressman and the Sgt at arms when Erap was impeached.
With Paquiao there in the senate, hope there will never be any fisticuffs.
But the rallies have not led to protesters barging in Congress.
PS
Soon, Año will retire and go to DILG, I hope the next in line will do his duty.
chemp, this is interesting I didn’t know DU30 was AWOL. Reminds me of my favourite story growing Mark Twain’s “the Prince and the Pauper”, and movie “Weekend at Bernies’s”,
I hope he shows up soon, chemp, or the VP (and her folks) gets ready, I gotta feeling things are gonna get real interesting over there. Great read!
He is in the news again consoling Paquiao and asking the Communist Party founder here if he wants to see peace before he dies. Add to that his usual thanks to Martial law supporters.
Thanks Lance.
As Irineo puts it, the Age of Innocence is over.
The President now knows exactly where everbody that matters stand. From now on, it’s a solo show.
“The Supreme Court waivers in its great responsibilities” = wavers (verb), not “waivers” (noun.
I would take both meanings from chempo’s context. 🙂
haha thanks EF you are right my editor missed that, both the man and his AI.
My AI identified that wavers was correctly spelled! 🙂 🙂
Thanks, Chem. Agree on all points, except, yellow is irreparably smeared? The thread that holds the country is frayed, and it’s the color yellow. Can’t help feeling this way. Yellow was birthed as the welcome sign for Ninoy Aquino. I will never cut myself from this moral lifeline. It has worked for me, and I’m sure there are others who are like me who still turn a moist eye on August 21, 1983, on the man who stood up to be counted. Not too many Filipinos are like him. While black seems to be the new color of protest, make an incision on black trappings and there you will see yellow as bright as sunrise, as hopeful as a flower in bloom. Marcos black prop smeared yellow, yes, but yellow resists mud.
Yellow as we know it, represents the good.
However, assuming a Leni presidency, carrying the yellow banner into Malacanang is to bring an emotional baggage along. I say drop the emotions, but certainly not all the moral values you mentioned.. Sticking to the marketing brand of yellow is divisive and no longer appropriate at Malacanang. That’s why I say wear a coat of many colours..
Chemrock, I share that view. I myself have a yellow sentiment — and thus share Wil’s sentiment too. But if Robredo at the helm comes to pass, she needs the best thoughts, strategy and set of actions, combining not only yellow sentiments but those held by the non-yellows. Yes “optics” — that word so in vogue these days — is important, among others. She may need to transform herself to a Merkel, Filipino-style.
We need someone to mold her to be like that but retain the excellent moral values. Perhaps ex Pres Ramos? He still supports Du30 as what I recall.
I understand Robredo or her staff reads TSH. She needs to mine the gold we have here.
I remember I was col sec, it was the traditional Christmas lantern parade, students and faculty didn’t have any lantern, were singing the song all way in the parade, we stopped, sung and danced facing the makeshift grandstand behind Quezon Hall and Oblation. Later I was told the College won a prize for its rare kind of participation. Honoring Ninoy.
Memories are hazy now, but there’s an Ilonggo legend told to me in Mindanao, not sure now whether it was Toothpick’s group, or the Tadtads, or the Barracudas, or the Sagrado Corzon de Jesus when they fight brother Muslims, like Lincoln’s Union soldiers fight with background musical marches, The Ilonggos only have hi-fi blaring the music link below:
I give up after this, Please delete all my post below this reply. Don’t know how to do it. The song is Tony Orlando’s “Candida”
https://www.toutube.com/watch?v=WROdwlk9_8&index=4&list=RDc_SN_sx_9rY
“Memories are hazy now, but there’s an Ilonggo legend told to me in Mindanao, not sure now whether it was Toothpick’s group, or the Tadtads, or the Barracudas, or the Sagrado Corzon de Jesus when they fight brother Muslims, like Lincoln’s Union soldiers fight with background musical marches, The Ilonggos only have hi-fi blaring the music link below:
“Candida” by Tony Orlando”
by popoy
Nice cooperative tandem there from TSH: persistence by Popoy then passing the baton to (caught by) JP. I enjoyed listening to those “golden oldies.”
It is nice here. The TSH are populated by quite a few over 40s, and from time to time they post items like these which bring back memorable thoughts of yesteryears to me.
Thanks to Popoy and JP.
Merci Joan de Ph, este Juana de la Ph. It’s 1:07 am here, can’t describe how happy it is to see diminished efficiency been rectified by a kind soul. Salamat po, este hija.
Hey thanks, danke Herr Herrera BUT what do you mean :quite a few years over 40s?” Yabang like wine comes with age. I say to friends: what do you mean being senior, being elderly? I say I am 40 plus 40, or 30 plus 50. Man I am 60 plus 20. I ain’t no old piece of meat, Man!
Yes indeed: good wine comes with age. I am about a year younger than you, so I am practically of the same wine vintage — yabang ko. Hehe. 🙂
toast pare ko
kampay
sindabad
cheers
swerte sa aton guid
for God and Country
Tsagalag Brods
tagay kay joeam
bottoms up .
All that and more, especially ‘bottom’s up!’
Yellow pansies bloom in winter. Snow covers them during hard and harsh winters and yet they appear fresh and unfrazzled when the snow melts. Well the picture is of yellows amongst a background of white ( the presence of all colors). I rather like that idea of yellow(tards), being prepared for winter and when spring comes there are even more yellow daffodils to confound non believers and cynics. Of course I grew up knowing the ‘ tie a yellow ribbon round the old oak tree’ symbolism heralding Ninoys coming back and being sentimental about it but having experienced true winters in a foreign land, had altered my perception of things happening in our country. I believe ‘ faith’ will be our redemption in weathering this harshest of winter.
A crystal ball scenario over a year ago. Now a READ on reality without the ball. What a piece!
You read Raissa Robles’ s blog yet? She posted a video and wrote an article titled “Is the President ill?” after some reader of her blog commented about a video about PDuterte’s “shaky hands.”