You cannot separate the economic from the political (the return of the cowardly technocrats)

Ernesto Pernia, Director-General of the National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) [Photo source: GMA News]

By Andrew Lim

During the presidential campaign of 2016, then candidate Duterte uttered a pledge to revive the country’s steel industry if elected. This blog, along with others were vocal and unanmious: it did not make economic sense at all, with global steel prices dropping. Not helping Duterte was the fact that one of his ardent supporters was a major steel manufacturer back in the day. To the credit of candidate Duterte, he reversed position on this.

When he won, a laudable thing Duterte did was to appoint seasoned economists and finance managers to his cabinet and gave the impression that he will be laissez-faire with them, citing in his trademark aw-shucks manner his incompetence in economics. Another positive decision was to appoint an insider to the Central Bank governorship instead of a banker and ideologue of the PDP-Laban party, which appears to have become a surrogate of the Chinese Communist Party lately.

But recent events amply demonstrate that you cannot separate the economic from the political completely; bold political decisions force economic managers to start with the endpoint: this is what the President wants; fit your economic policies around it. In a recent forum, NEDA secretary Pernia was unable to answer this question credibly: why are we getting these Chinese loans at much higher interest when the Japanese are offering much lower rates?

Persuasively argued by Manuel Quezon III in his recent column, the DICT’s dilemma stems from the same situation: the endpoint has been determined: a third telco player has to come in and it has to be from China. Work backwards from there.

Everything is already decided by Manuel  L. Quezon III, Inquirer

In my opinion, this reveals that this current batch of economists and finance managers seem to be made of the same stuff as the technocrats of the Marcos era: technically competent but cowards to go against the President even if their economics and their consciences are screaming otherwise.

Back in Marcos’ time, credentialed technocrats like Virata, Alba, Laya, Sicat all shared the same traits: incredibly smart, but they would never contradict Marcos. They would never question his disastrous decisions which saw the economy contract as our loans piled up, most of which went to his cronies.

JC Punongbayan came up with an even more compelling essay in Rappler of the dangers President Duterte’s policies on our resources in the West Philippine Sea and the Philippine Rise: are we putting ourselves in a position where our resources are put up as collateral once we find it hard to pay back the Chinese loans?

What scares me the most about China’s new, ‘friendly’ loans by JC Punongbayan, Rappler

Populists are popular, but they drive the economy to the ground. Venezuela’s Chavez and Maduro courted the masses with Chinese made refrigerators but look where it got them: hell on earth. Trump wants to start a trade war on steel and aluminum. Who are the economists backing him up on this? Chief economic adviser Gary Cohn is set to resign.

This is what I want our local economists and finance managers to do, if they have any love of country or decency left: stake your name on Duterte’s policies by defending it in writing. Otherwise, voice your protest before it is too late.


78 Responses to “You cannot separate the economic from the political (the return of the cowardly technocrats)”
  1. Marcos took over an even better running Philippines than Duterte did – ahead of most of Asia. Looks like the Filipino happy-happy mentality does not think of the end of the party.

    Deutsche Mark to Peso around 1:1 in 1968, peso buying power was better than DM.

    In 1971, rice shortages – my mother joined UP Coop then for the NFA rice.

    POEA founded 1975. Fixed exchange rate. High black market rate for $. Remittances of OFWs had to partly go via Embassies. Migrants and OFWs paid taxes. No BIR receipts no new passport.

    Buildings and roads ALWAYS looked cleaner on propaganda than in reality. Reality caught up in the early 1980s. The world economy didn’t move that fast then as now both up and down. Many yellows formerly pro-Marcos – in better times. Many were upstarts like today’s typical DDS..

  2. edgar lores says:

    It is true: you cannot separate the economic from the political.

    And it is also true: you cannot separate the political from the moral.

    In not standing by their professional integrity and bending to Duterte’s whims, the economic managers are not being morally upright.

    And Duterte is far, far past the Plimsoll line of acceptable morality than any previous president. He disavows his campaign promise that he would defend the country. And he mocks the people for believing in him. “Naniwala pala kayo,” he derisively mouths.

    The Philippines ship is sinking fast, commanded by a captain and crew without a vestige of honor.

  3. andrewlim8 says:

    I foresee a White Paper coming out from the UP School of Economics, or the Ateneo in the next couple of years, as the effects of the Duterte impositions on the country’s economic policies begin to emerge.

    In the meantime, Pernia, Diokno et al would look at the ceiling, twiddle their thumbs, and play the violin.

    • karlgarcia says:

      Did you work for or with SEPO before?

      Here is their Economic Report.

      Click to access 2017%20Full-year%20Economic%20%20Report_Revised_Final_22Feb2018.pdf

      Let us see the White Paper from UP and Ateneo after two years.

      • karlgarcia says:

        From the report.

        “For 2018, the economic outlook remains broadly upbeat but downside risks persist. External headwinds include uncertainties that may further constrict global financial conditions and heighten volatility in financial and capital markets. While a sustained upturn in the United States economy is generally expected, a steeper than expected slowdown due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Korea, rebalancing in China, and the economic slowdown in Japan and the Euro zone could drag down growth. Production cuts and rising global demand are also expected to exert upward pressure on world oil prices, while protectionist policies in some advanced economies may adversely impact trade and cross-border investment flows.
        On the domestic front, factors that delay the delivery of infrastructure projects will likely constrain productivity and thus, dampen economic prospects. A higher than anticipated inflation due to the newly enacted tax reform package, higher oil prices and weak currency also poses a risk if not addressed accordingly by the monetary authorities. Non-economic factors such as political noise and pressures to pass popular but unsustainable policies, as well as adverse natural and weather conditions also threaten the growth outlook.”

  4. NHerrera says:

    As I thought about the current article and wrote this post, I see edgar’s post after refreshing TSH. It is related in a way.

    Politics and economics — as in the children song of the wheels and the bus: the wheels on the bus go round and round, round and round, round and round. Which may raise the trivial question: which comes first bad politics or bad economics?

    Indeed it is a truism: politics and economics cannot be separated — without even talking of technocrats. Going outside the Philippines aside from the article-cited Venezuela, we have the current US, China, Russia, and UK.

    A sign of the times, the cycle of human history — human evolution and scientific progress notwithstanding?

    • NHerrera says:

      Clarification: the post does not argue against the great distortion that may come in the future economy because of the screwed up politics of the Admin.

  5. karlgarcia says:

    Who ever coined Political-Economy was very correct.

  6. NHerrera says:

    Too early in blog for this? Example of bad politics in the supposedly non-political Supreme Court. Senator Trillanes seems to have the inside scope.

    The opposition senator said he issued the statement following reports that certain Supreme Court (SC) justices, “headed by Associate Justice Marvic Leonen … were maneuvering to force the unconstitutional removal” of Sereno, who is being subjected to the impeachment process for alleged dishonesty for not filing her statement of assets, liabilities and net worth (SALN).

    • karlgarcia says:

      Still on topic of cannot separate Politics from economics and vise-versa.

      • NHerrera says:


        On the undue haste to remove CJ Sereno before the orderly procedure prescribed by the Constitution — Impeachment by the HOR and subsequent Senate Trial — is finished, one can reasonably ask if the forces that started the process rolling are doubtful that the Senate will sustain the move to oust the CJ from office. If this conjecture is true, this explains well (at least to me) the moves to preempt the Senate Trial.

        • NHerrera says:

          A COROLLARY

          From which conjecture, if true, follows the question why some pro-Admin Senators will want to go against the Admin tide, since clearly the six minority Senators who may not convict Sereno in the Senate Trial are not enough. Three more (or is it two?) are needed from the majority. Without going to the specific Senators, is there some remarkable reason(s) why the these three Senators will acquit Sereno along with the six?

  7. karlgarcia says:

    It just takes one member to be afraid of China to say that ASEAN is afraid of China.

    “ The reason for this is that any statement issued by Asean should be done through consensus and if any member
    objects, then it is rejected or revised.

    But the bigger reason is that some members of Asean such as Laos and Cambodia, and now the Philippines, are beholden to China because of the largesse that they have received from it.“

  8. chemrock says:

    My obstinate viewpoint I have stressed here is that the reasonable mind often surpasses trained and professional minds. Your point on pre-determined outcome in relation to 3rd telco from China is obvious to most people. But the fool-hardy two new players that are vying for the opportunity cannot see it and will waste their time, effort and money preparing for a bid.

    Pre-determined outcome situation are prevalent everywhere, even in Singapore. I remember years ago when our Defence Ministry was scouting for new fighter planes, it was pretty obvious to me the govt will select the US F-16. To put on a good show of openness, we invited bids. This was no cheap bidding. Competiting players from US, UK, France, Russia and others came with their fighter planes. Yes, the planes were shipped to Singapore. Just imagine the wasted cost. In the end, it was a fait accompli. We selected the F-16.

    Putting aside hanky pankies, there is a very obvious reason why the China telco will be selected. Why should China lend Phils to buy a deal from somewhere else? China’s loan is an exim bank loan, which means they finance their own exports.

    • andrewlim8 says:

      “My obstinate viewpoint I have stressed here is that the reasonable mind often surpasses trained and professional minds. ”

      I have a different take: moral courage, rational analysis and love of country is easily defeated by a tribal culture of following the strong datu. The Philippines in the year 2018 is still really a primitive non-state, non-country. 🙂

    • karlgarcia says:

      China is not even in the top 10 and top 3 importers of Steel and Aluminum respectively to US.

      Canada, EU and Japan maybe Korea will be most affected.

      • karlgarcia says:

        I just learned that it was not unfair trade practice that led to the downfall of US steel industry, it is the refusal to modernize.

        • Pernia is citing warnings, along with some needed actions, including speeding cash transfers and clamping down on price gouging improperly tied to TRAIN. I wonder what The next edition of train will look like.

          “Measures to curb inflation and cushion its impact on the poor are urgently needed, the National Economic and Development Authority said, as the inflation rate for February 2018 reached the upper band of the government’s target.”

          • karlgarcia says:

            Now it is up to Dominguez and Congress.
            Neda’s warning should suffice, but it wouldn’t.

            • chemrock says:

              t’s a tough balancing act, but it’s not Dominguez’s problem. It’s BSP and Pernia’s.

              BSP remains confident inflation rate will be within their tolerable limits although it is now reaching the upper band. My gut feel is the inflationary impact of TRAIN has been grossly down-played by the admin. To fight inflation, BSP will need to raise interest rates, which in turn will spiral off more inflationary pressure unless the economy expands sufficiently. Increasing interest rate is bad news for Build Build Build (80%/20% domestic/foreign loans) as domestic loans get more expensive, straining an already strained budget. An inflation inspired weakening of the economy will add more pressure on the peso forcing BSP to protect the currency via open market operations. Net result is depletion of foreign reserves, which in turn accentuates a loss of confidence in the peso.

              The old adage rings true – if it ai’nt broke, don’t fix it. A poorly managed economy is like a crumbling Dutch dyke wall. One hole is patched up, only to see another cracking and water seeping through.

        • Pernia is citing warnings, along with some needed actions, including speeding cash transfers and clamping down on price gouging improperly tied to TRAIN. I wonder what the next iteration of TRAIN will look like.

          “Measures to curb inflation and cushion its impact on the poor are urgently needed, the National Economic and Development Authority said, as the inflation rate for February 2018 reached the upper band of the government’s target.”

        • NHerrera says:


          On economic implications of policies, Paul Krugman makes an interesting observation. US imports is about 15% of GDP, with a trade gap of 3% of GDP [Imports-Exports]. If the 20% tariff on imports across all goods are applied — and assuming price elasticity of import demand is 1.0 — the import shrinks by 3% (= 15%*0.20), thus wiping out trade gap to zero.

          Without tacking on retaliation measures by countries, he says substituting domestic production for the shrunk imports will require employment to increase by 1.5% [Krugman’s estimate] which will not happen because the US is near full-employment.

          Krugman ends with:

          What would happen instead is that the Fed would raise rates sharply to head off inflationary pressures (especially because a 20 percent tariff would directly raise prices by something like 3 percent.) The rise in interest rates would have two big effects. First, it would squeeze interest-sensitive sectors: Trump’s friends in real estate would become very, very unhappy, as would anyone who is highly leveraged (hello, Jared.)

          Second, it would drive up the dollar, inflicting severe harm on U.S. export sectors. Greetings, farmers of Iowa!

          So protectionism wouldn’t do very much to reduce the trade deficit, even if other countries didn’t retaliate, and would inflict a lot of pain across the economy. And that’s without getting into the dislocations caused by disruption of supply chains.

          Add in the fact that other countries would retaliate – they’re already drawing up their target lists – and the fact that we’d be alienating key allies, and you have a truly terrible, dumb policy idea. Which makes it quite likely, as I see it, that Trump will indeed follow through

          (Bolding mine.)

          Now, even a student of economics such as myself understands that.

        • NHerrera says:

          Thanks again folks — karl, Joe, chemrock — for my continuing lesson in the arithmetic of economics that the economic managers must certainly know but, I hope not too timid with the Boss, going forward, to rectify the situation so that that Dutch dyke wall does not crumble altogether.

  9. Sup says:

    Same same….?
    Signed in 2005, the agreement involved the PNOC, the China National Offshore Oil Co. (CNOOC) and Vietnam Oil and Gas Corp. (PetroVietnam). It covered a total 142,886 kilometers in the disputed South China Sea and included almost 80 percent of the Kalayaan Group which the Philippines claims. Reed Bank near Palawan was also included.

    There’s a dark story behind the JMSU.

    It was connected to the $904.38 million package of investment from China that included the graft-ridden Northrail, NBN-ZTE telecommunications deal and Zhongxing Technology Equipment (ZTE) Diwalwal mining project.

    So important were the deals that Arroyo had to leave the bedside of the sick Mike Arroyo at St Luke’s Hospital and flew to Boao, China to witness the signing of the agreement for the jumbo loans.

    Malacanang’s press release aptly described Arroyo’s quick trip to Boao thus: “That’s the way things looked like for President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo in her brief stay in this picturesque coastal town Saturday as she ‘came and went like a thief in the night,’ bringing with her an avalanche of Chinese investments to the tune of $904.38 million.”
    While Phoenix is currently mostly a fuel trader, distributor and transporter, some analysts speculate it is well-poised and cash rich to move into more upstream operations in potential partnership with a major Chinese oil company such as China National Offshore Oil Corp (CNOOC)

  10. josephivo says:

    Politics as economics are multidimensional, some areas overlap completely, some act on different planets. Just some fears:

    I see a rampant inflation (I don’t belief the official figures) and inflation seems to be used to pump wealth from the bottom to the top. And a lot of this wealth pumped upwards is reinvested safely outside the country, preventing the needed healthy wealth creation investments inside the country. But the major-president has other priorities such as reshaping the country as his personal backyard and eliminating the bad guys, currently being the drug users and human rights advocates.

    P.S. All the economic experts employed see their performance evaluation by the “have’s” as much more important than the evaluation by the “have-not’s”, hence the effects described above.

  11. andrewlim8 says:

    Let me put this not-too-far-fetched scenario for discussion: what if the 3rd telco player from China gets the business and their first move is to make their cellphones (say a Huawei) free to every Filipino for a locked-in subscription (complete with embedded surveillance software)?

    How many of the 105M Filipinos will jump at this? I’d say a lot.

    • NHerrera says:

      Andrew, just going by the numbers. For a mass-produced Huawei phone such as you described, P5000 a piece seems reasonable. At PHP52 per USD, and assuming all 105m gets such a phone, it comes to USD10 billion — a reasonably low amount for China considering the strategic objective.

      • NHerrera says:

        On the other hand, why spend that much or even a significant fraction of that if we are already a Chinese Province? Would that make sense?

        • Sup says:

          i am sure the politicians will use ONLY Apple….

          • NHerrera says:

            Right. Going further on our numbers heuristic, of course there are children in the 105m and politicians who prefer the apple, so if we deduct the 10% of the ABC class, and the portions of the D class who will snub the Huawei along with the politicians, and the children of the D and E class, we may have only about 60% of the 105m availing. So that whittles down the USD10B estimate to about USD6B. Still, the Chinese Officialdom will say, why bother since PH is effectively our Chinese Province — especially since there are no secrets we cannot get direct from some horses’ mouth.

        • andrewlim8 says:

          One compelling reason to spend on that is to use the Phils as a proving ground for untested technologies.

          For instance, we are almost there when it comes to simulating video and speech and make it almost indistinguishable from actual video and speech. Imagine the impact of that on fake news and disinformation- which is confined to text today.

          A Chinese province makes for a great laboratory for mind manipulation. With Filipino gullibility high off the charts, a lot can be accomplished.

          Imagine a fake video and speech of say, a simulated reputable doctor claiming vaccines cause leukemia.

          People will eventually figure it out, but note the impact it will have on everything- you will not trust even the real thing now.

  12. andrewlim8 says:

    Read this piece on how easy it is to make fake videos with facial swap:

    • You just have to see how perfectly they mixed the already dead Carrie Fischer into Star Wars 8. In Star Wars Rogue One, the Grand Moff Tarkin (also created from the already dead actor from Episode 4) still had a somewhat shaky picture.

      Those who are complacent now within the opposition – and I think most still are – should try to imagine the following scenario: lynch mobs guided by fake video news of all “enemies”.

      Bad enough that Calida might be Ombudsman in four months when Carpio retires. With the power to suspend any official he wants, at will. Don’t be naive and expect the records of the suspended investigation against Duterte to survive. Calida is the Lord of the Shit. Dark Side.

  13. karlgarcia says:

    Zimbies today, Zombie-Lemmings tomorrow.
    (in reference to the telco scenario, i just watched a teleserye about that(la luna sangre))

  14. andrewlim8 says:

    Here’s another one on how sophisticated fake news will become in the coming years:

    A Chinese province like the Phils makes for a great testing ground.

    Opposition gathering steam? Why not try to ignite ethnic tensions say, Ilocanos vs Kapampangans?

    • the anti-“yellow+elitist” propaganda already works perfectly in a fractured society, no need for much more than that, in fact the left has its share of fault in making the simplistic anti-elite narrative normal, the anti-oligarch+mestizo narrative is of course Marcosian/rightist/MRP:

      There is I think deep envy about what is perceived to be a privileged life, as opposed to one’s own. Why otherwise make a big deal about Leni’s dresses, like some have done – yet admire the dresses of Isabelle Duterte at a lavish debut? Of course, Leni Robredo has already been identified as part of the other tribe, those who have “had it all” (not true for Leni who lived in the dormitory when she studied at UP) while “we” never had anything and now have the right to luxury and the good life. Even if no one can claim that Leni is lighter in color than most, or Sereno’s nose way too sharp!

  15. karlgarcia says:

    The Chinese will not wait for the Manila Bay future reclamations thanks to Andrew Tan and Henry Sy.
    Andew Tan wiill take care of the Entertainment and Henry Sy with the additional condos and office spaces.

    • karlgarcia says:

      More will pull out if incentives are removed.

      “The removal of incentives could lead to pullout of companies from the Philippines, according to Charito Plaza, director-general of the Philippine Economic Zone Authority (PEZA).

      “Once we remove or stop incentives, investors will pull out. Those which are here will start preparing to close and look for other areas. The Philippines no longer monopolizes ecozone (development),” said Plaza, adding that most if not all competitor-countries in the region are building ecozones and are coming up with incentive packages to attract investors to locate in their countries.

      She added the Tax Reform for Acceleration and Inclusion (TRAIN) 2 is sending worries to investors “which is why we are lobbying to the secretary of the Department of Finance (DOF) to give us time to prepare new incentives.” ”

      • It is good to hear direct speech regarding a potential threat. I read that a survey indicated red tape for businesses is increasing again, after having fallen under Arroyo and Aquino. I think government service is moving backward to the old days, if my recent experience at the local LTO is any indication. It used to be an efficient place but has returned to the ways of arrogant and slow.

  16. Popoy Del R. Cartanio says:

    TSoH may just delete the piece below, I have written may be nine years ago amid a kind of meltdown affecting vulnerable nations. I can’t find the real old file for more info about it. To a resilient people with the tensile strength of abaca fiber, pliant as a bamboo bending with the constant winds, whose daily lives resonate economic meltdown conditions, Life for the heroic Pinoys might already have changed for the little better. If so and if the description of the daily grind no longer apply, the Filipino masa can rise prouder with laughter; because the way they were before they already had left behind. If it hurts or if it’s obsolete, then delete this nuisance piece.

    Ang Sagad na Sayad sa Krisis Ekonomiya

    Trabaho ang Ugat ng Krisis — Noon decada 60 bilang isang tindero sa maliit naming sari-sari store, naranasan kong ako’y lapitan hingan ng awa ng ama o ina na nawalan daw ng trabaho, Mga anak daw nila ilang araw ng hindi kumakain. Humihingi kahit kunting bigas o lumang tinapay. Noon madali pang malaman sa kanilang kilos ang taong peke. Lubos at di pekeng tulong puede pang asahan maski sa mga politico at taong gobierno.

    Ang tingin ko sa krisis ganito. Sa mga mahihirap na bansa hindi tulad ng Amerika, Canada at Britanya mas matindi ang dagok ng krisis ekonomiya. Sa bawat tao o indibidwal, maaring ang ramdam ng gutom at uhaw, tindi ng sakit at panghihina mas grabe dahil walang kakayahan at tunay na malasakit ang gobiernong tulungan ang mga walang trabaho. Unang-una maski noon wala pang krisis, dapat bukal sa liderato ng gobierno gamitin ang puso at utak para pasulungin ang buhay ng mahihirap.

    Ang epekto ng krisis sa mayaman at mahirap na bansa ay pareho. Laganap ang tanggalan sa trabaho. Pero ang epekto sa mga karaniwang tao o indibidwal at pamilya ay mas matindi dahil sa maraming anak, walang ari-arian, walang mauutangan, at halos walang kawanggawang matatakbuhan.

    Halimbawa Isang bansang mahirap —Ang teorya, na simula ng siyensia ay hindi galing sa hangin o panaginip. Kalimitan tunay na pangyayari at karanasan ang basihan. Kung totoo ba o hindi, ang opinyon ng karaniwang taong bayan puedeng paniwalaan. Halimbawa, isang mahirap na bansa sa estadistika opisyal (official statistics) meron tatlongpu’t pito (37) milyong mangagawa. Siete porsiyento (7%) lang ang walang trabaho. Ibig sabihin ng gobierno: Halos tatlong (3) milyon lang walang trabaho, ang natitira, tatlongpu’t apat (34) milyon ay meron trabaho. Ayos at patag ang ekonomiya pag ganito ang sitwasyon sa mga nakatira sa mayaman bansa at kung ang estadistika ay hindi peneke ng gobierno. Puede na, maski sa ordinariong mangagawa, puede nang mabuhay ng isang kahig isang tuka. Hindi mahirap humanap ng trabaho, dahil sa bawat sampung (10) tao tatlo (3) lang ang walang trabaho. Sa isang naghahanap ng trabaho, dalawa lang o kaya kunti lang ang kakompetensiya.

    Sa kultura – sa palagay ko – ng mga mayaman o mga umasensong bansa binuo at lumago ang mga estadistika ng empleyo o ng agham ekonomiya kaya mas akma sa kanilang sitwasyon. Nasa klase ng mangagawa ang magbabadya ng ayos na estadistika. Dalawang klase lang: tunay at pekeng mangagawa ang sukatan ng tindi ng epekto ng krisis. Kapag yung mga halos walang trabaho (peneke sa record) ay ibinilang sa mga mangagawa na ang kinikita ay kayang bumuhay ng pamilya, ang resulta ay pekeng estadistika. Oo nga’t hindi ganyan kadali dahil meron tinatawag na underemployed o kulang sa regular na oras, sa sweldo at pribilihiyo sa regular na trabaho.

    Potensiyal Biktima ng Krisis — Isipin natin kung ang tatlongpu’t pitong (37) milyong mangagawa ay nahahati sa tatlong klase: tunay, peke at diyables (unemployed).pero para simplihim ang isip, dalawang klase lang: yung meron trabaho at yung wala. Ibig sabihin – ayon sa halimbawang estadistika – tatlongpu’t apat (34) na milyon ang meron trabaho at tatlong (3) milyon lang ang walang trabaho. Dalawa at magkabilang talim ito ng isang punyal. Hindi puedeng sabihing pitik lang sa kamao ang epekto ng krisis sa ganitong estado ng trabaho, dahil sangkatutak ang maaring mawalan ng trabaho. Sa kabilang talim, puedeng sabihin hindi bale, marami man ang mawalan ng trabaho, marami pa rin ang hindi mawawalan. Pero papano kung marami sa kasama sa meron trabaho napakaliit ang sweldo? Kahit saan tignan, pareho rin kaya pag tumarak ang punyal – nagkaron ng krisis – ang hiwa magkabila. Sugat tiyak magdurugo.

    Pero ang masakit – na teoriya – kung ang estado ng meron trabaho (34 milyon) sa bansa ay hahatiin sa tatlong bahagi: isang bahagi (one-third) pekeng trabahador at dalawang bahagi (two-thirds) tunay na trabahador. Lalabas napakarami, dalawangpu’t dalawa (22) milyon meron tunay na trabaho at kunti lang pekeng trabahador, labing isang (11) milyon lang. Parang ganito ang labas ng pekeng estadistika:

    Tunay na trabahador 22 milyon – yung mga regular ang trabaho, mga sapilitan miembro ng seguridad sosyal tulad ng GSIS at SSS. Mga teachers, sundalo, pulis, sikyu, taong gobierno, may ari at regular na empleyado ng kalakalan pribado tulad ng shopping malls at shopping center,mga botika, mga meron 20 taong pwesto sa palenke, mga propisyonal tulad ng abogado, doctor, dentist, nurse, enhinyero, OFWs at iba pa. Sa grupong ito yung mga hindi bossing o may ari ng negosyo ay masasabing isang kahig isang tuka. Sa kabilang banda yung mga bossing sa gobierno at tunay na namumuhunan masasabing kahit hindi kumahig, puedeng tuka ng tuka.

    Pekeng (sa stats lang) trabahador 11 milyon lang ba? – Ito ay mga nagkakariton ng gulay, basura at sirang bakal, nagpipingga ng biik at baboy, mga sidewalk vendors, mga starters ng jeepney at FX taxis, pa extra-extrang FX at jeepney at bus drivers, mga regular at extrang conductor ng bus, regular at extrang tricycle drivers, mga kabataang barbero, mga manicurista ng paa, mga mandurukut sa EDSA, mga Ateng Five-Six sa palengke, regular at extrang padyak drivers, mga self-employed sa Payatas at Montalban dumpsite, mga watch-your car boys, mga fixers sa opisinang gobierno, mga nagrarasyon ng dyaryo, mga barangay tanod, mga extra sa pelikula, mga waiter at waitresses, mga GRO at hostesses, mga puta at call boys, mga kubrador at Cabo ng Jueteng, mga on-call plumber, carpenter, house painter, mga background dancers sa TV. Ang grupong ito. meron panahon walang trabaho ay mabibilang sa limang kahig isang tuka, kahit papano nabubuhay pilit pinagdudugtong ang magkabilang dulo, tanghalian sa Lunes idugtong sa tanghalian sa Martes. Meal to Meal ang problema sabi noon ni Fernando Poe Jr. Pinakamalaki ang kontribusyon at pinakamaraming biktima ang grupong ito sa VAT ng gobierno.

    Epekto ng Krisis —Sa Teoriya, ang pankalahatang epekto ng krisis: sa mga Diyables (3 milyon) bago mag krisis, TEPOK; sa mga isang kahig-isang tukang (85%) trabahador, GAPANG; sa mga bossing sa gobierno at mayayaman (15%), OKAY LANG, WA EPEK; sa mga pekeng empleyado (11 milyon) na limang kahig isang tuka: NAGBABAGANG PUSO, KUMUKULONG DUGO.

    Para nanamnamin ang init ng krisis at bumaba ang presyon, puede segurong arkilahin yung mga pelikula ni Henry Fonda, James Dean, Gary Sinese at John Malkovich noong panahon ng depresyon sa Amerika. Kahit napanood na magandang ulitin.

    Mantak ninyong isipin ang darating pang epekto ng Krisis na puedeng itulad sa Intensity 8 ng lindol o kaya 8 meters tsunami sa mga dalampasigan ng dagat Pacifico.

    Gaano karami ang matatanggal sa trabaho at mapapasama sa grupong limang kahig isang tuka, epekto’y NAGBABAGANG PUSO, KUMUKULONG DUGO? Ilang milyon sa tatlongpu’t apat (34 ) milyon may trabaho daw ang mawawalan ng trabaho at mapapasama sa tatlong (3) milyon Grupong ang epekto’y TIPOK?

    Hindi dapat ma alarma ang mga bumabasa habang hindi nababasa ang kaalaman sa bituka ng krisis ng mga taong ang silid aralan ay hindi pabrika kundi bangketa o kaya’y squatter area?

    • karlgarcia says:

      The eleven million strong underground economy, majority pay vat.
      That was then. Now, they also have to pay excise taxes and some or most of them together with some of the 3 million jobless pay with their lives.

  17. karlgarcia says:

    If the Chinese debt problem is overblown, how come they are selling assets or deleveraging?

  18. karlgarcia says:

    If the reason of Pernia is Japan’s ODA disbursements is spread too thin, that is factual.
    But to say Japan is too slow to process release of funds and China is faster, that is the BS part.
    Corporate debt in China is on crisis level, our side needs to do due diligence everytime, how will that make it faster.
    Maybe, Pernia was amazed of how fast the Chinese were able to build a railroad, he thinks the Chinese can railroad everything?

  19. Sup says:

    Political Economics lesson nr1

    Headstart this morning…..

    ”Sen. Cynthia Villar says a bill will be filed in the Senate to create a “Boracay authority” that aims to manage the development of the island.”

    Huh? Why? They even own large properties in Boracay and know how to deal the LGU…

  20. NHerrera says:

    Well, we seem to have good news from the north. North Korea seems to have indicated its willingness to talk with the US. I hope JKU is not up to his old tricks again.

    My takeaway:

    “Look, buddy Trump, I worked on friend KJU as promised; all of us may be happy soon not to spend too much on our deadly toys; so how about pulling back that tariff thing, after all with respect to steel and aluminum, you are hurting your traditional allies more; deep regards” — your friend and fellow President for Life, Xi

  21. According to Philip Lustre from his FB post, PRD received election campaign contributions from China. That is a prohibited source from Sec 95h of the OEC and Article IX-C Section 2 (5) of the Constitution.

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  1. […] You cannot separate the economic from the political (The return of the cowardly technocrats) […]

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