A basic look at coronavirus statistics
Chart 1
ANALYSIS
By Joe America
All of the numbers we will look at are from the Department of Health. Are they perfect? No. Are they the best indicators we have? Yes.
The data are current up to April 11, 2020.
Chart 1 shows the enduring climb of confirmed coronavirus patients in the Philippines. It shows a slight flattening, but we know that wide scale testing has not yet been done. In all likelihood, the trend is still pretty much vertical, and not peaking. We’ll examine this further as we proceed.
First, let’s look at trends on recoveries and deaths. Both are climbing, as we would expect. At some point, recoveries will accelerate. We are not there yet, as Chart 2 illustrates. It takes several weeks and re-testing to confirm a recovery, so this is not a worrisome pattern.
Chart 2
Chart 3 below introduces a new concept of “Beds Freed Daily”. This is the sum of recoveries and deaths among confirmed patients. A five-day moving average is used to smooth out the day-to-day fluctuations. We can see that, as the base of confirmed patients increases, so do recoveries and deaths. These beds can be given to new patients coming in. The whole purpose of flattening the curve is to recognize that hospital facilities are limited. Re-use them.
Chart 3
Hospitals are seeing about 35 beds per day freed up right now.
How many new coronavirus patients are coming in and demanding a bed? Look at Chart 4 below, which shows new patients daily, again a five-day moving average.
Chart 4
This is good news on the surface, but we must look at it as “pending more active testing”. The demand for beds currently is running about 150 per day, down quite a bit from the first of April.
Well, the concept is clear now. Beds freed are running at 35 per day, but demand is 150 or higher. We are not near the peak, but things seem to be moving in the right direction.
In Chart 5 we combine the two readings to see how far we are from the peak, the peak being when enough beds are being freed up to handle the new cases coming in. That is, when the index hits 100%.
Chart 5
The trend is right. It is pretty convincing, but at 25%, we are not at all near the point where overworked hospital staff will begin to see some relief.
My guess is it will be mid-May before relief sets in..
One more trend line bears mentioning as the trend line is a little disturbing. What are deaths to confirmed cases? That is shown below in Chart 6.
Chart 6
The trend was down until the first of April, but now it is ticking up. This is likely a reflection of weak testing being done right now and poor identification of new cases. We know the global death rate is likely somewhere between 3% and 4%. The Philippines is significantly higher than this, and trending up.
The other factor that could be affecting the death rate is the quality of medical services delivered. Not enough ventilators? Pay the price.
Right now, we don’t know which is which, but can track this indicator as more testing is done in future weeks.
– End –
The Society of Honor by Joe America 
If the numbers are more or less accurate, this viral outbreak proves that it can’t be deterred by warmer weather as usually happens with the common colds.
What this signifies is that governments in temperate regions are expecting a flattening out and hoping to restart their economies by summer. If restrictions on air travel and social distancing are lifted, asymptomatic infected individuals could very well set off a second wave of sickness and devastation.
Yes, true. I do think the lockdown was a good step, albeit adopted after a bit of panic when the first death was reported. Now there are concerns about the economy, which is the main argument for easing up on the lockdown. I expect that there will be stepwise easing starting around the end of April. I think that is too soon.
“Lifting restrictions too quickly could lead to a deadly resurgence. The way down can be as dangerous as the way up if not managed properly.” – WHO chief
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-52248516
A the idea of a “step-wise easing” is already getting some opposition in New York. gov Cuomo issued a warning that ” We will sue if Trump issues order that puts New Yonkers in danger” I expect that many Democrat governors will oppose Trump’s attempt open up the economy. I have the feeling that there is a political interest to weaken the economy and blame the president for the deaths so his ratings will fall. Like in this video: Let’s Make A Deal: Trump or Coronavirus https://youtu.be/w1-GrBy67LY
I read that there are two Democratic Groups, One in the West Coast with three States including California, Washington; one in the East Coast with six States including New York, New Jersey — all with sizeable populations and contributing greatly to the US Economy — planning their health – economic strategies on the covid-19.
While there may be some Democrats (small, percentage-wise, I believe) who are using the present pandemic for unsound political views/ ends, I believe — since we are writing of “feelings” here — that those 9 Governors together with most of the officials of those States are sincere in balancing the health-economic interests of their State.
Political interest to weaken the economy?
Dude, the economy is already hemorrhaging as we speak. 16 million Americans have filed for unemployment in the last 4 weeks alone. GDP have contracted by as much as 20% in the last quarter. Even Chase Manhattan projects a depression level devastation.
You don’t have to spin this as a political conspiracy to weaken the economy. As Dr. Fauci stated, it is not for Trump or the devil to decide when might America start to open; the virus does.
The science averse Orange Man at the White House have belittled the threat of this pandemic when it was still possible to keep the infections and casualties at a minimum.
“We are okay, we are doing fine. It will be gone soon, believe me, like a miracle – it will just be gone. Don’t worry about it.”
Reassuring words of wisdom from the retarded Twitterer-In-Chief.
Agree, Micha. Your Orange Man is the one weakening the economy the more for political ends!
Ano ba yang Presidente mo Micha. Hindi ko sasabihing na “nasisiraan ng ulo” kundi ang mas mabait na salita: “nasisiraan ng bait.”
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/14/politics/donald-trump-coronavirus-governors-economy/index.html
Nandorman is implying a soon to occur event of economic weakening, presumably cooked up by democrats, to make Trump an unpalatable choice in the November elections.
I’m saying the economy is not only already weak, it is now in the ICU on life support and is being feed intravenously by that $2 trillion MMT money.
What is the virus, what is the testing (frequency-accuracy-randomness)?
Did feel reassured by the slow increase compared by other countries. Metro Manilla 40km away. But 2 days ago we had the first couple affected in the subdivision (+/- 2000people), the wife send to the hospital the husband in quarantine. Then 2 entrances closed, only one remaining. Today 5 more people in quarantine. Just an hour ago somebody tried to bring back in his helper with symptoms, stopped by guards…
Thing are getting individual and real, statistics no more relevant.
Yes, at that level, statistics don’t mean much. Too close. Stay healthy.
So we have this Php275 billion corona relief package courtesy of congress in coordination with the BSP. Seem like we’re finally catching up on MMT.
As always, it’s the mechanism for distribution that’s vulnerable to leaks and corruption which will defeat the purpose of providing relief and as a stopgap measure for economic bleeding.
Bavarian Prime Minister Markus Söder said today that for the first time, recoveries have exceeded new infections, don’t know if he meant in Bavaria or whole of Germany. What is also true however is that the death rate in Germany is rising and ICU beds are filling up, seems this was one of the expected scenarios so probably they will keep the lockdown to weather out the peak capacity. Söder did mention a few days ago that two other state PMs had promised help in case patients needed to be moved from Bavaria, so obviously there is already a contingency plan.
Prevalence is also important. A study from Gangelt near the Dutch border indicates that 15% of the population in that hotspot may have antibodies. Still far from the 70% needed for herd immunity. A similar randomized study of 4500 people across Munich is now being conducted. Let us see.
Austria and Czech republic are doing a gradual easing, with the option to snap back if things get worse again. Masks are mandatory for public life in both countries. Germany is still making sure there are enough masks to go around. Internal EU borders will stay closed while travel into the EU also stays closed probably even longer as UK, USA and now Latin America are heavily hit. Industry never fully halted in Germany, though car manufacturers had to stop due to lack of parts. China restarting may mean VW and the rest starting again, maybe by May?
Asian style Smartphone Apps for anonymous contact tracing may be one further measure to keep whatever comes back under control.
BTW the three factories in Germany that produce reagents for Covid tests seem to be running dry, so there may be a need to slow down the need for testing by locking down a bit more. The German President said tonight not to expect life to fully go back to normal even after a lockdown.
Lots of ambulances on the streets today. As the lockdown here started on March 21st, exactly three weeks ago, the recently infected will be from the phase just before the lockdown plus a week to show symptoms. Lockdown went nationwide on March 23.
By Wednesday there will be a presscon with Merkel and all 16 state PMs, I have read. Probably the data evaluation of data from Tuesday will play a major role in deciding.
My gut feeling tells me extension until early May, maybe with small loosening exceptions.
TECHNICAL NOTE
Just a small technical note on the data (charts) presented in the current blog. I am commenting particularly on the shape of the [5-day averaged] chart of deaths against cases shown in Chart 6 or what is known as Case Fatality Rate or CFR.
First, the numerator is the death numbers which on April 10 was 221, a small number on a statistical basis, smaller still early on. Also, please note that although I will be commenting below on Chart 4 (averaged daily cases), I recognize that the CFR is based on the Cumulative Cases (Chart 1) as the denominator in the calculation of CFR. Mathematically, the cumulative cases (Chart 1) is the integral or running sum of the daily cases (Chart 4).
If we assume that the deaths lag the cases by 10 days, more or less, then the following may be observed with the CFR Chart 6: low in the period late March-early April, higher around April 10. If one looks at Chart 4, the averaged daily cases, one sees a broad and substantial daily case hump (about 300 cases daily) in the range of late March-early April; lower on both sides of the hump.
– This hump of the daily cases is about 10 days to April 10 which hump of daily cases contributed most to the deaths which appeared on or about April 10 because of the lag, manifested in the higher observed CFR there;
– On the other hand, 10 days more or less to the left of the hump (Chart 4) the daily cases were lower and manifests itself in a lower CFR (Chart 6) where the hump in Chart 4 occurred;
– The higher CFR in the early stage may be attributed to a lower statistical number base but more importantly due to a lower regime of testing — thereby understating the cases.
Q.E.D.
Thank you, NH.
Thank you very much for this comprehensive review. It gives a great picture of where we are.
If you add to this the following link and use the LOG scale, you see something else interesting
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-covid-deaths-per-million?tab=chart&country=CHN+NLD+FRA+ITA+PHL+ZAF+KOR+ESP+THA+USA+GBR
It seems that all ‘developed’ countries are on the same curve and will end up with 350 deaths per 100k. Whatever they did. China and Korea, however, managed to beat the curve by massive testing.
Philippines is on a unique curve, probably the result of the many islands. But each island, is a community in itself and could end up ‘on the curve’. But, a lot of time was bought by the lockdown. If that time gets used to initialize mass testing, then Philippines might very well follow Korea and China by limiting the damage and open up again in a few months. It this massive testing is not implemented, there is no reason why Philippines would not follow the rest of the world and end up in the 350 range, massive death toll. So, there is a great opportunity for Philippines to protect it’s people. I pray they use it and borrow more time until a vaccin or medicine is available.
Great analysis. I hope so, too.
It is long said that the testing is for formulating a strategy not just to know the number of sick.
The president said that the 100 k test kits is enough
If each PUI gets tested 5 times then that is just for 20 k cases.
We should be used to that the president aleays says not to take his opinion as an expert opinion because he is no expert .
Panelo even said not to take him seriously.
Egad!
In my opinion, if you want to contain like in China and Korea, you need millions, if not tens of millions of testkits. You then can expect the same like Korea, a few hundred deaths. This is the WHO advice. And it enables you to open up the country soon again.
If you know it better than the WHO and order less testkits, you end up with tens of thousands of fatalities and an economy in tatters. Unless… Unless somebody finds a vaccin or remedial medication soon. As the latter is very unlikely, I personally will batten down the hatches and prepare for a very long stay abroad and hope that you the older people have the option to isolate for a very long time and the young people….. you probably need to work, it will become a difficult time, consider specializing in Internet skills (Oracle, Arduino, Raspberry, GIS, AutoCAD, Revit, game designing), things you can learn and practice in isolation.
Strength and wisdom will be needed to survive the coming year, but never forget who made the decisions against the advice of the WHO.
In my book your opinion is very valid.
Here are the FDA approved test kits as of 8 April.
https://drive.google.com/open?id=1L3bmJe8rJFm47xESAll6Q1ye1SSY16E0
What we need to know about the UP test kits.
https://cnnphilippines.com/news/2020/4/7/UP-COVID-test-kits-what-you-need-to-know.html?fbclid=IwAR0RWflvIDnusdmitiWr2jm3gHwqdO_eMzBUppQsv32QKqRuFIgSlRWQbis
Valenzuela started their own mass testing.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/04/philippines-valenzuela-city-begins-mass-localised-testing-200411203022883.html
I hope we do not run out of lab technicians and labs.
https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2020/04/14/2007170/covid-mass-testing-begins-metro-manila-today
Neph, I like list of approved test kits. (Off-note: am tracing back your comments on infrastructure; relating to the farm-to-market vulnerability of fresh produce, viz the corn thing)
Here is a link
https://opinion.inquirer.net/125485/farm-to-pocket-roads
For his articles
https://muckrack.com/cielito-f-habito/articles
Thanks, Neph. Will read n digest.
Pablo,
If you will permit me.
I looked at the chart in the link you provided. Thanks for thate. The chart ends on April 13 and shows Spain and Italy having deaths per million (in million not 100k) in the neighborhood of 350. I believe this is not the end of the game for Spain and Italy, and although they have reached their peak daily cases and deaths, the deaths per million may most likely climb above 350 (400?, 450?).
This is just my gut writing, but I do not believe most developed countries will follow the death per million score of Spain and Italy.
A case in point. Before the recent revised projection of the epidemiologist models, the US authorities were counting on at least 100,000 US deaths when the pandemic runs its course. Their recent revised number is 60,000 deaths. If we were to use this April 13 number of Spain/ Italy 350 per million on the US with a population of 331 million, we will get 116,000 (= 350*331).
Of course, I may be wrong on the eventual number in the US.
Absolutely. Sorry for the 100k mistake, it should have been 1000k indeed.
And yes, forecasting whether 60k deaths in the US or 120k will be difficult, just a slight change in conditions can make a huge difference once you’re “on the curve” or just a bit off. Just releasing the restrictions a bit early or not testing enough or…… The deaths in the US will most likely be between the Vietnam losses and the WW2 fatalities. The question is if that country will accept those losses, knowing that if they had listened to the warnings which got stronger and stronger since SARS and MERS, they could have limited it to only a few. Or if, like Hitler did, the country is going for the blame game. Go after China and destroy our society. Seen it, been there, done it. Playing with fire.
Most interesting will be the coming month.
I am stuck in South Africa and saw yesterday the most impressive TV appearance of the medical team here. They stated that any death of a fellow countryman is unacceptable but have to balance between hunger and virus. And in a 3 hour presentation they presented the country (on all channels simultaneously) in a completely transparent way what the options are, what they are going to do and why. Afterwards questions from journalists and even normal people via WhatsApp. And the president? Not in sight. He trusts his team and the although the president presides the emergency team, he presents the critical issues (e.g. lockdown). Not posing every day and at the same time threatening to fire his best scientist.
Use the link again now and you will see the next day’s development. It’s such a sad show every day, I wish we could just kick down those curves, but the developments are fascinating, frightening and explosive.
Stay safe
You too; stay safe. Informative close view of the situation in South Africa. Thanks.
The Department of Health has significantly improved its data report and now shows testing center outcomes, bed availability by type, and ventilator and PPE equipment availability. Impressive upgrade that does a lot for my own confidence, for sure.
https://www.doh.gov.ph/2019-nCov
The last 24 hours were tough with 50 deaths against 40 recoveries. The mortality rate crept up to 6.39%. Confirmed cases now stand at 4,648 with 220 additions. “Beds Freed Daily” ticked up to 26.36% on a five-day moving average.
Yes. The DOH covid19 Dashboard has more information. I have not visited it again until now.
Looking at the recent data, I find that the remaining testing kits as of today may not last beyond the end of the month.
From DOH data, the ratio of confirmed cases to testing done is currently 14%. The remaining testing kits of 86,625 versus used kits of 38,640 [the latter, to arrive at the current total confirmed cases of 4648] gives a ratio of 2.24. If the ratio of confirmed cases to testing done remains at 14%, this means that the confirmed cases can total 10,411 (=2,24*4648) cases for the remaining testing kits to be all used up. I estimate that this confirmed cases total will occur on or about 14 days from now, or on or about April 27. I do not believe 10,411 will be the PH’s maximum infected cases. Thus, DOH must be aggressively finding ways to get more test kits.
I think the UP test kit is now being manufactured in the Philippines. I don’t know the volume they can produce. Also, some communities are buying their own, I believe. But I agree, it bears watching. Also, I think it is important to look at bed counts by ‘in Manila’, and outside. I’ll make that suggestion to DOH today via their suggestion link.
A video of what UP is doing. Don’t be surprised by PGH as that is the hospital where UP medicine students do the practical years before they get their M.D., an American era institution like U.P. itself. The UP anthem is played, haven’t heard it in a long time.
Germany and other EU countries may make use of more efficient mobile phone based contact tracing after the lockdown period. The privacy proof apps exchange tokens via Bluetooth with neighbouring phones and transmit these tokens to a server. If one person with such an app is tested positive, his tokens are checked and all who were near that person in an X day period before are alerted to get tested. Singapore and Sokor used similar apps. I will get the app when it is here.
Aside from a good public health system, I think it also takes a national ID system to combat a pandemic. Continental Europe and most of Southeast and East Asia have it. UK and US don’t, and the Philippines does not either. Should help with contact tracing. Knowing people’s address.
If you can’t test all, at least do survey style tests. Munich has randomly chosen 100 voting districts out of 1001, is testing 30 randomly selected (by walking) households in each, around 4500 people out of 1.5 million total. To determine prevalence, the closer to 70% (herd immunity) the better. Depending on how high or how low, determine next steps – as a calculated risk always dependent on continued testing. Even Germany is short on reagents produced locally, so it has to slow down.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/poorer-eastern-european-nations-could-teach-the-west-a-lesson-on-coronavirus-11586718779
An article about how poorer Eastern Europe reacted faster than overconfident Western Europe, for fear that their moribund health systems would not hold.
The obedience to the state still very present in ex-Communist countries may also have helped. Also, they are not travel hotspots so they had a head start, reacting after just a few days.
Speaking of Eastern Europe. Hungary is being harshly criticized now for taking extra steps to curtail the spread of the virus. The country is now considered by some Western Europeans as a totalitarian dictatorship even though the emergency measures to combat the Wuhan corona virus is working in Hungary. It’s all because the government is authorized to adopt extraordinary measures in departure from the provisions of law in the interest of people’s health, legal security and the stability of the economy. Just a few days ago Former United States Ambassador to the United Nations Susan Rice has called for Hungary to be expelled from the European Union in her CNN interview. She also Tweeted “Kick Hungary out of the EU.” Not just her but a long list of high profile leaders and politicians are saying the same. Strangely enough I’ve read articles placing Hungary and the Philippines in the same category, as examples of dangerous totalitarian dictatorships. Not uncommon to read about pm Orban followed by President Duterte. I don’t have to tell you that Hungary and other V4 countries are not dictatorship and this is just a hysteria. I find it amusing that Hungary never encountered the Philippines during it’s history and doesn’t have a shared past but now they are placed in the same “boat” I’m Hungarian with a Filipina wife and daughter and we find this very amusing.
Yeah, Orban, Duterte, Bolsonaro, and Trump – the four horsemen riding the wind of fascist revival.
Actually what is a fascist?
I though it would be someone with brownshirts or blackshirts like Schutzstaffel . Anyone against such a leader can expect these gentlemen to come at midnight and be hauled away and never be heard of again. Duterte has his DDs. As for Trump, he is really a lousy fascist. He was almost impeached by a meagre 3 or 4 show of hands.
Actually what is a fascist? How PM Orban and also the PM Mateusz Morawiecki of Poland -also a favorite target- came to this equasion along with Duterte and Hitler? Most Hungarians just shake their head in disbelief when they see the hate propaganda against their government. The same government that they overwhelmingly reelected again and again and enjoys a constitutional majority. Eastern Europeans understand that it’s also an attack on them and they now came to a point where they interpret it as anti-Hungarian bigotry and attack on their nation. It’s becoming personal. The Left on the West doesn’t understand that. The Islamic, Nazi and Communist occupations and dictatorships educated Eastern Europeans to a consciousness that the West can’t comprehend. This will come to a breaking point.
Well chemp, seems like you have not been paying attention. America has prided itself as having a long history of supposedly democratic governance. Institutions were created to insure that no megalomaniacal ruler will abuse the power of the presidency. Many of those institutions today are performing their functions under heavy duress and assault from just such a megalomaniacal made for reality tv executive. Vacancies in the lower judicial courts, for example, were filled with Trump appointed sycophants who express extreme right wing ideologies.
So while the Orange Man may not have yet gone to the level of a Duterte or an Orban in terms of criminal oppression, he certainly has all the inclinations of a faschia. His hostility towards immigrants and people of color mirrors the initial hostility of that German mass murderer towards the Jews.
Remember also that he has nothing but seal of approval and kind words for such world luminaries as Duterte, Orban, and Bolsonaro.
Fascists aren’t born overnight. But if you keep on ignoring the red flags, you may just wake up one day being hauled off to the nearest detention center – waiting to be processed.
If you believe that PM Orban is a fascist then you are not thinking strait. It’s just wrong and ignorant on so many levels. Intellectual honesty is not a value in Western European media and tragically on the Left anymore when it comes to Hungary and it’s PM.
” I find it amusing that Hungary never encountered the Philippines during it’s history and doesn’t have a shared past …”
I was in Catholic high school in the ’50s when we followed Imre Nagy and Cardinal Mindszenty and the stories from Hungary. I vividly remember the front page pictures of the Manila Times of Hungarian students throwing stones at communist tanks.
Of course, as a citizen of Chicago, a Euro-American melting pot and also Asian I see the faces of young first-generation Hungarian-, and Filipino- and Korean- and Chinese- and Vietnamese- and Japanese- American reporters on the 10 o’clock news daily.
So yes, world history/culture is looping on itself. 🙂 Of note: Italy & Spain have quite sizeable Filipino populations, viz Corona hotspots – approx 145,000 Fils in those 2 countries.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overseas_Filipinos
Yes, Cardinal Mindszenty is a hero. I’m impressed by your knowledge. Interestingly the Leftist press labeled him a fascist. You know the logic: If you are anti-commie then you are a fascist. It didn’t bother them that he was hated by the Nazis for openly speaking out against them. But you know how commies/socialist are and how they hate, they killed 20 million in Eastern Europe alone. Seems like some things never change. As per Filipinos living in Hungary? There are a few. More tourist however. I run into them myself when I visit the capital. They are usually visiting from Western Europe where they live. As per East Asians concerned, Hungary has a large Vietnamese community thanks to the communist past of our countries. Thanks for the link. I also give you a link of a Vietnamese-Hungarian pop star no Filipino as of yet (maybe my daughter one day) : https://youtu.be/KEbaachixTo
You’re welcome.
Very nice video. I did not understand the Hungarian of course. I hope you’ll allow your daughter to understand Pilipino (our language). Some linguists say it is easiest to learn languages below 13 yrs of age. I wish I taught my two sons Pilipino & Ilocano when they were little. Take advantage of your daughter’s native musicality. 🙂
Be corona safe for you and your family.
PS. My favorite Hungarians: Franz Liszt and Fr. Stanley Jaki, OSB.
I’m glad you didn’t say Zsa Zsa Gabor or Bela Lugosi. I didn’t know about Stanley Jaki, thanks for the info.
HEURISTIC — USING RATIOS
Heuristic ~ heuristic process or method = a heuristic technique, often called simply a heuristic, is any approach to problem solving, learning, or discovery that employs a practical method not guaranteed to be optimal or perfect, but [may be considered] sufficient for the immediate goals.
I visited the JHU-CSSE (John Hopkins University – Center for Systems and Science Engineering) Dashboard on Covid-19 a while ago and got for the United States:
Number of Tests = 2.935 million
Confirmed Cases = 582,607
Deaths = 23, 628
[Note that the numbers keep changing depending on date and time of viewing because of updates.]
Now let us do some ratios:
C/T = 0.20; D/C = 0.04.
What I sorely lack is the number of hospitalizations which is a measure of the number of beds and sundry medical equipment and staff needed. Let us do some magic.
Let us assume H/C = 0.20. Is this reasonable? To me, it is. But I will not argue if you don’t believe so. We then have these interesting identical ratios:
C/T = 0.20
H/C = 0.20
D/H = 0.20
If we put this in a pyramid chart:
The whole pyramid is the Test, T = 1.000
The lowest top slice is Cases, C = 0.200
The upper top slice is Hospitalization, H = 0.040
And the topmost slice is Deaths, D = 0.008
Or for every 1000 tests:
T = 1000
C = 200
H = 40
D = 8
COMMENTS:
1. The above is not meant to imply that the Tests drive the occurrence of the Cases. Rather to suggest perhaps that Cases are uncovered with more Tests, otherwise only those showing clear symptoms may reveal the Cases, not those that are Asymptomatic of which there are many.
2. Thus, the need for more tests especially when lockdown or shelter-in-place is loosened. Thus tests, contact tracing, more tests, isolating and caring of symptomatic cases, serology tests for asymptomatic and recovered cases are clearly called for.
3. When one looks into the 60,000 total revised projections of deaths from covid-19, one may get an idea for the total tests implication, total cases uncovered, and the associated cumulative hospitalization requirements First, note the additional deaths is 36,000 (= 60,000 minus current deaths of 24,000). Thus using the ratios:
– Additional Tests required = 4.5 million
– Additional Cases uncovered = 900,000
– Additional Hospitalization needed = 180,000
As I wrote above: heuristic — using ratios
Of course, I remain to be deeply embarrassed if those numbers are wild off the mark.
Manong NH, I think if your model seeks to give an estimate of how much testing would be required to safely relax lockdown restrictions maybe a some tweaks are required. I would submit the model significantly underestimates the amount of testing required because US testing figures and policy is is to ration limited testing capacity to those who are already symptomatic. The primary goal of safely relaxing lockdown restrictions and letting the population go back to work requires that testing capacity is available to separate and isolate those who are infectious whether symptomatic or not. Another approach is to only let those who have recovered from infection return to work on the likely but unproven presumption that they are immune and safe from reinfection. Furthermore, in order to contain isolated clusters of infection from becoming uncontrolled contagion, testing will have to be expanded to included contact tracing and testing. These contacts may neither be symptomatic nor infectious but simply suspected virus carriers because of physical proximity to a confirmed case.
To capture these necessary adjustments, a large and complicated mathematical model would be required. But these are the very testing prerequisites that public health officials are advising should be in place before opening up the economy. But neither you nor I have the time nor expertise to attempt to construct such a model. Having said that, if I were to crudely tweak your model, perhaps refining C so that it consists of C1=Confirmed and Symptomatic cases , C2= Confirmed and Asymptomatic Cases, C3=Recovered Infected Cases and C4= Traced Contacts. Experience from Wuhan and infected cruise ships suggest that C2 is is in the range of 1 to 3x C1 after adjusting for false negatives due to testing inaccuracy or that it was done too early in the virus infection cycle.
Maybe so, Josephivo. But I believe Manong was confining his scope to the US situation.
RUSSIA’S CASE
While on the subject and prodded by today’s news, I briefly looked at the Russia case on covid19 infections. The current confirmed cases stands at 21,102 with 170 deaths.
While 21,102 is comparatively small compared to those in Europe and the US, the current Russia Doubling Time (DT) is about 5 days from my look at the data in recent days.
If DT = 5 days, in 1 month or 30 days corresponding to 6 doubling cycles the numbers are as follows:
Cycles Cases
1 42,204
2 84,408
3 168,816
4 337,632
5 675,264
6 1,350,528
Obviously Russia will take measures in the next few days to avert such rapid growth.
I am wondering why the bright minds of Russia were not on the ball in this early enough. Putin, shades of Trump? What is clear to me is that Trump and Putin are no Supremo Xi.
I would be glad to read Irineo’s comment on the Russian covid19 infections from his perch in Germany.
What about randomness of the tests? From testing people with all symptoms over people with some symptoms to suspect people to all people…
What about type of beds, in hospital covid-19 (ICU?) beds, hospital beds, elderly home beds, untested mortalities at individual homes…
What about different types of tests and there accuracy rates? In many countries all test are allowed and wielded for high standards of accuracy afterwards…
The variation of all this over countries and states makes “global” projections impossible, only local ones could make sense. For global projections just toss a coin.
Caliphman, Josephivo:
I appreciate your comments — they point to Heuristic 01 to my Heuristic 00. Stay safe.
The following link is a report of the experts in the game with tools and data at their command. I have not digested yet a good portion of what the report is saying though.
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/04/14/science.abb5793.full
I read enough of it to grasp that the focus of that report is not on the testing required to loosen lockdown restrictions safely. That is the crux of the issue that Trump and the 50 state governors face in the US and it is all about testing. I have laid out the testing capabilities and components that top US epidiomologists are advising should be in place before undoing the lockdown. If the idea is to model the total amount of testing required based on their recommendations which are most likely to be followed, then I see little point in delving in a tangential analysis of how Covid-19
virus is transmitted. But if that is one desire, by all means please indulge yourselves. As for me, I am out.
Thanks. You did me a favor of what the report is about.
Even if the lockdown is lifted today, many Americans would want to wait indefinitely and not resume life as normal.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jackbrewster/2020/04/14/even-if-us-lockdown-was-lifted-today-most-americans-wouldnt-resume-life-as-normal-new-poll-finds/#9ae700d77641
“In Wisconsin and Ohio, farmers are dumping thousands of gallons of fresh milk into lagoons and manure pits. An Idaho farmer has dug huge ditches to bury 1 million pounds of onions. And in South Florida, a region that supplies much of the Eastern half of the United States with produce, tractors are crisscrossing bean and cabbage fields, plowing perfectly ripe vegetables back into the soil.
After weeks of concern about shortages in grocery stores and mad scrambles to find the last box of pasta or toilet paper roll, many of the nation’s largest farms are struggling with another ghastly effect of the pandemic. They are being forced to destroy tens of millions of pounds of fresh food that they can no longer sell.
The closing of restaurants, hotels and schools has left some farmers with no buyers for more than half their crops. And even as retailers see spikes in food sales to Americans who are now eating nearly every meal at home, the increases are not enough to absorb all of the perishable food that was planted weeks ago and intended for schools and businesses.
The amount of waste is staggering. The nation’s largest dairy cooperative, Dairy Farmers of America, estimates that farmers are dumping as many as 3.7 million gallons of milk each day. A single chicken processor is smashing 750,000 unhatched eggs every week.
Many farmers say they have donated part of the surplus to food banks and Meals on Wheels programs, which have been overwhelmed with demand. But there is only so much perishable food that charities with limited numbers of refrigerators and volunteers can absorb.
And the costs of harvesting, processing and then transporting produce and milk to food banks or other areas of need would put further financial strain on farms that have seen half their paying customers disappear. Exporting much of the excess food is not feasible either, farmers say, because many international customers are also struggling through the pandemic and recent currency fluctuations make exports unprofitable.
The widespread destruction of fresh food — at a time when many Americans are hurting financially and millions are suddenly out of work — is an especially dystopian turn of events, even by the standards of a global pandemic. It reflects the profound economic uncertainty wrought by the virus and how difficult it has been for huge sectors of the economy, like agriculture, to adjust to such a sudden change in how they must operate.
“It’s heartbreaking,” said Paul Allen, co-owner of R.C. Hatton, who has had to destroy millions of pounds of beans and cabbage at his farms in South Florida and Georgia. Even as Mr. Allen and other farmers have been plowing fresh vegetables into the soil, they have had to plant the same crop again, hoping the economy will have restarted by the time the next batch of vegetables is ready to harvest. But if the food service industry remains closed, then those crops, too, may have to be destroyed.“
karl,
I never understood why here in California, sit-down restaurants are begging county officials to be licensed to sell groceries. Although many restaurants have remained open as pick-up and/or delivery, but because many people now prefer cooking their meals at home, that’s down.
But people want to buy groceries. They’re lining up. Not to mention those who can’t afford anymore, they have to line up at food banks— which i’ve also been too early on, but lines are too long now (if you don’t want COVID19, its best to do food bank drive up line up, drive by and they give you a package of essentials, you don’t get to pick but next to zero contact).
Turns out there are grocery items that go straight to retail, and there are groceries that go straight to restaurants, work cafeterias and schools. And for some odd reason not explained in the article in full, the two supply routes don’t cross! The article hints at business relationships being established for years, but why they can’t just be repurposed now i dunno.
Either way, i wish restaurants do get to sell groceries, but I suggest they follow the food bank model, and just pre-package their stuff (maybe box 1, box 2, box 3, give the buyer a menu to choose from), and just drive up and/or deliver. We need to salvage all these foods. Then the farmers can finally figure out, Hey this will be the new normal, and thus properly apportion their lot for more specific wants and needs.
I’m noticing also that people here have started growing their own herb and vegetable gardens, and have bought fruit trees. And have started using charts like these, https://www.davewilson.com/home-gardens/growing-fruits-and-nuts/selecting-varieties-and-rootstocks/fruit-and-nut-harvest-chart to stagger their crops.
So farmers need to take into account, which crops are easier to grow by these new urban farmers in their backyard, front yard, porch, apartments, etc… yup, I kinda hope life doesn’t return to normal, karl. People are now eating healthy knowing that COVID19 is looking for diabetics and heart problems folks. I noticed the over-weights are really taking PPEs seriously too, karl!!!
I notice more people walking and biking too just around their neighborhoods, and the gas prices are really low now because mostly there’s no where to go. All in all, I think COVID19 is good for people, karl.
Meanwhile India will allow farming, manufacturing to slowly resume.
https://ph.news.yahoo.com/india-allows-rural-poor-virus-lockdown-113903880.html
I’m sure they’ve calculate who’s expendable , karl. Over here, every one is still some one important and can’t be lost to COVID19.
Why is the wwe given the go signal to go live in FL and the UFC to form a fight island.
The owners are now part of Trump’s task force.
Are the athletes and actor/athletes expendable?
WWE is basically a play, but for stupid people. So as long as it’s just the cast and crew, no audience except for TV, its their own cost/benefit. Same-same for UFC, no crowd.
Essential = expendable, karl. it’s the folks being told by the gov’t to go out there, and risk their lives. Lol! like the military basically.
Duterte said the vaccine of Eli Lily will reach the world by May and when it reaches the Philippines, the ECQ will be lifted.
There you have it folks, this will go on until May or June.
https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/news/nation/733853/duterte-claims-big-pharma-has-developed-anti-bodies-vs-covid-19/story/
Not a vaccine but a cure.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/13/eli-lilly-ceo-hopes-to-start-testing-coronavirus-cure-this-summer.html
But this is a sort of repurposing, first a malaria drug in Japan and now an Arthritis drug will be tested fir COVID I hope it works even if there are many naysayers.
Unlike Razon who has written off 2020 and RSA give premium to health before Wealth, the richest amongst Tycoons wants to restart the Philippines.
https://www.philstar.com/business/2020/04/13/2006858/government-urged-gradually-restart-economy
Yes, consider all the mall stores going bankrupt, or the malls themselves if they forgive rents. Huge sucking sound around the malls is money being lost. And the airlines and bus companies. Banks are at risk, I suppose. I wonder how over-borrowed Dennis Uy’s assets are doing.
Me too (Uy).
No light at the end of the tunnel for cruise ship crews.
https://news.abs-cbn.com/spotlight/04/16/20/nobody-cares-about-the-little-people-cruise-crews-file-covid-19-lawsuit
“All in all, I think COVID19 is good for people.”
Good for the planet too. Pollution and carbon emissions are down by as much as 50%.
Global warming might be averted if we extend this lockdown for 5 years. 🙂
We just need to get COVID19 to the rich now, Micha. Get someone to swim to Geffen’s f’ing yacht and sneeze on him; deliver much needed supplies to mansions in Florida, Washington, etc. etc.
The circle of life needs to touch everyone.
LOL! So long as there’s still WWE and UFC me and karl are happy!!!
Though some are hit with Covid LCx.
It also proved that all those military spending proved to be useless.
This coming from a military brat.
karl,
Have you seen the Trevor Noah w/ Bill Gates interview? Bill Gates identifies the Internet; Medical; Water/Power as the 3 most important industries post-COVID19— 3 industries he’s got vested interest in, Microsoft; he funds Vaccine companies; his Terrapower/Omni Processor (sewage to water).
I agree all three are the top going forward post-COVID19. Terrapower is important for 1st world; Omni Processor for 3rd world.
His got it covered.
He has got it covered.
He was quick to adjust to the cloud going to to toe with AWS.
He was not able to beat the iphone so he got rid of that cell phone unit.
Water from poop is needed in the remote areas.
Mini gasification from human waste if done well can make homes mini power plants.
Never ceases to amaze me.
karl,
I’d love for sports to re-open again.
But no crowds. Just NBA playing televised, same with football; or soccer; baseball. But the added variable now is COVID19. So you’re watching a game on TV and enjoying the game, but also paying attention about who’s sneezing and coughing and who they are sneezing and coughing on.
For instance, LeBron James dunks but sneezes and Anthony Davis was posting up. So now people will take bets on COVID19 popping up 7 to 14 days later.
Eventually people will tire of all these sneezing and coughing, COVID19 because of its R0 , will always win.
So people will focus more on eSports. I don’t think COVID19 will ever mutate to get into the internet. But since its a virus maybe there’s a possibility still. LOL! I predict eSports will get bigger— hell NASCAR drivers are already doing it!!! Lol.
https://www.theverge.com/2020/4/15/21221999/formula-e-sim-virtual-racing-series-f1-nascar-pandemic (i’m pretty sure they’ll soon realize that Hey some 13 yr old can do this stuff far better than any real life driver!!! Lol. )
https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2020/04/15/2007486/chinese-medical-experts-find-philippines-risk-inability-cut-covid-19-source
Our inability to cut off the source of the virus is due to our inability to cut our ties with the source.
those dumb chinese medical experts ought to pinpoint the source of the virus so we can go and cut it off at point blank. what’s the point of having experts that cannot even identify where the sources is holed up? if they are really experts they should be offering solutions not more problems.
lowly people from the bangketa know only too well we cannot cut off the source of the virus without the ‘experts’ seconding the motion.
duque might as well tell the experts to go and cut off the tie that bind us to the source, maybe they can see better with their chinese eyes than what we filipinos can see with our own eyes.
tell us where the source is! tell, tell, tell, so we can cut, cut, cut it.
haha, now it’s appearing tuloy na the wet market in wuhan is not really the source of the virus, o nagmula duon. emerging talk now is that the virus escaped from the biolab in wuhan.
hard to trust the chinese and what they’re saying.
Since Feb or earlier they denied this and dismissed it as a conspiracy theory.
https://www.vox.com/2020/3/4/21156607/how-did-the-coronavirus-get-started-china-wuhan-lab
Filipino’s are very pragmatic, so let’s tackle it is a pragmatic way. At this moment, it does not matter where it originated. Fact is that it was mishandled in China for a short while, but then they took (what now appeared) very effective measures. Fact is that it was (and still is) mishandled in almost all of the rest of the world. We need “all hands on board” to get rid of this virus. Where it originated will be sorted out later, no doubt. And that is where we need the WHO desperately, maybe a little bit different approach, but we need the scientist right now to fight this virus.
All distraction at this moment will result in a longer time before we get rid of this virus, resulting in more deaths, many more deaths than “9/11” and therefore should be considered as a terrorist activity.
Is there any other definition possible for people who put whole nations is a stranglehold just because they personally did not want to loose “businesses”.
denials aplenty and conspiracy theories all denied as well, coming closer to the truth na kasi. those in detective work, the more there is denial, the more they looked closer and all possibilities looked into, time consuming but.
the chinese health team will soon be going back to china on 19th april 2020? and took economist’s scalp, pernia’s, as bounty. tasked with post covid19’s new normal, pernia did not get to see the fruits of his poisonous tree, haha. chua is replacing pernia, so quick talaga to find pernia’s replacement, the admin is. have chinese connection, will pronto get post.
had chinese health team been to cebu too? kasi there is spike of infection there kaagad. okay maybe more testing was done and caught more of those infected as well. 10 filipino health facilities were visited by the team and now I’m watching tuloy if the 10 health facilities will report spikes as well.
to pablo’s ‘did not want to lose busine’, I will add po did not want to lose face as well. face is important, brand name is important, keeping up with appearances at all costs. I dont really know where I’m going with this, but I’ll go anyway zat is freedom!
geography is eating at me, location, location, location. I mean the proximity po, economical in both distance and travel. the near proximity of wuhan biolab and wuhan wet markets like they are feeding off each other, is what I mean.
experts always said the genome of the virus did not seem lab engineered; what they failed to tell is that it’s one angle out of the many more probable angles. been inside a biolab? there are lots of animals there being tested, others cannot stand the rigors and die, other survive only to undergo more enhanced testing, some brutal.
now, those animals been tested, the dead and the near dead, the rejects and the whatnots, whose to say they wont end up in nearby wuhan wet market instead of being destroyed?
it cost money to destroy lab animals no longer useful, better make money by selling them undocumented in the blackmarket, to be butchered and sold ironically as health food along with other animals smuggled in from the wild.
china has been the source of bird flu, swine flu, sars and now the deadly coronavirus.
We got safe advice. Sarcasm
https://globalnation.inquirer.net/186945/chinese-experts-suggest-more-quarantine-sites-improved-test-capabilities-in-ph/amp
Sage advice
The long overdue adjustment of numbers from China.
http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-04/17/c_138984408.htm
china got pressured to reveal them number. I think, it was mainly pres xi’s close friend, trump, that constantly chip at china, pressuring china to step up and come clean. so, the number is about 50% more chinese deaths now than previously reported and if trump not let up and chip further still, we could be looking at 300K chinese deaths altogether, instead of the initially reported 3K plus.
hay, naku, statisticians the world over will now have to adjust thier number and maybe anticipate for belt and road: more adjustments to come.
They have the nerve and the gall to call it transparency.
MY NUMBERS FOR THE DAY
Without commenting on the scope and accuracy of the numbers, but taking only the official figures of the PH covid19, the current doubling time (DT) in days, using 5-day averages are:
Case DT ~ 14 days
Death DT ~ 9 days
If the Case DT remains at 14 then increases in the coming days, that will be relatively good news.
With respect to the Death DT — as seen in other countries — this number tends to be lower than the Case DT because it comes mainly from the evolution of the New Cases some 5-10 days in the past, that is, before the Deaths. [Thus, even with declining New Cases, in which case the current Case DT increases, the Death DT tends to be lower in number compared to the Case DT.]
In the case of Russia,
Case DT = 4.8 days,
Death DT = 4.4 days.
In Russia’s case, the numbers are in their robust exponential phase, both in the the Cases and Deaths — something which concerns the Russian Authorities.
Thanks to Cable TV and Newspapers Online for wising up to Trump’s Reelection Campaign cum Coronavirus Briefing.
They cut in when it is about the coronavirus briefing and cut out when it is about himself and or his reelection campaign.
I want to listen to President Trump’s Coronavirus Briefing for its importance to the worldwide fight against the virus, especially as it impacts the PH. But gee whiz not a prolonged mainly reelection campaign. It is about time for the competing TV companies and newspapers to finally wise up. But not Fox News, of course.
It seems ironic that Trump’s been the same consistent person since June 16, 2015 when he came down the escalator to announce his candidacy, and only now do the cable news channels realize its all bs.
But because of COVID19, Americans aren’t gonna settle for the edited version, they wanna watch it live now. Figure out what Trump’s gonna do. Its all a guessing game, you don’t watch the WH briefings for truth or directives, you watch them for tells.
Like poker.
See where Trump will take us. Leaving it to the governors vs. a full scale Federal martial law is smart; but I think Steve Bannon’s martial law lock down is still in play. I think Trump’s play is to let the hospitals fill up first, then he’ll implement martial law— not before (that would’ve been Hillary’s play, which would be too soon at least as far as Americans w/ guns are concerned).
NH, if you Google Fox News and Cable News viewership ratings its FOX News ahead, and have been for awhile now even since b4 Trump.
But i think specific to COVID19 news, people aren’t necessarily watching these WH briefings, for entertainment sure, or for prognostication as I like to do re Trump’s play sure, but day to day people are watching county briefings, if they are watching at all. Most here are binge watching shows and movies.
I can tell you that Netflix’s the Goop Lab are great episodes, along with Narcos Mexico Season 2; over at Amazon Prime Video its Tales from the Loop.
I also enjoy watching John Oliver’s show,
You must be joking. Micha’s Orange Man declaring Martial Law because the States Hospitals are overflowing blamed on the Governors’ mismanagement?
What best way to justify it, without inviting the ire of 2nd Amendment proponents, NH? Remember that Hillary would’ve already called for Martial Law ala Wuhan at the Federal level back in February.
MUSINGS ON GOING BACK TO WORK, TO SCHOOL, ETC
Let us do something a la Einstein’s Gedankenexperiment or Thought Experiment. Let us assume 100 percent accuracy in tests; that once a person is tested and found negative he remains so unless infected; that those found positive can be isolated effectively and cannot infect others.
1. Let us take the case of the US with a population of 331 million. If by some magic in our Thought Experiment we are able to test all 331 million in a day, then the problem of going back to work becomes a No Problem. All those found negative in the tests — can go to work; go to school again, etc. Those found negative are taken cared of as best as possible.
2. Now the reality. Testing of 331 million even if 1 million can be tested per day (it currently stands at about 120,000 tests per day) will take 331 days or about 11 months. Now we may assume that there are fractions of the population that do not require tests because the probability that these fraction is infected is very low. Say this is 20 percent. We still have 80% or 265 million to tests — needing about 9 months to do the test at the rate of 1 million per day.
3. There is of course the more realistic approach. Take all the current positive cases who are still able to communicate (not in ICU) and check their contacts . Assume all contacts are accounted for. There will be lots of those, but those are the priority ones to administer the tests. The current cumulative cases less the deaths and those in ICUs may number about 600,000 (currently confirmed total cases is about 677,000).
4. If each of these 600,000 have an average of 5 contacts, we have then 3 million tests to make PRONTO. If this can be done in an instant as if by magic then again we may say that the problem is solved. It is possible that out of the 3 million contacts, 20% (the current Cases/ Test ratio in the US) or 600,000 will be positive, for a grand total of 1.2 million cases. Note too, that so far, some 3 million tests have already been made, with this additional 3 million tests for the contacts, the total test will then be 6 million, out of of the 265 million we are focusing on, leaving 259 million (=265-6) untested.
5. But wait, some X number may not have been the contacts of the 600,000 but got infected and worse are asymptomatic because they happen to touch the doors of public buildings infected by the virus from those contacts. When “back to work, school, etc” comes around, falsely assuming that all infected are accounted for, these others, part of the 259 million, will be spreading the virus.
6. So some tests will have to be done randomly on these 259 million. For practicality these tests have to be categorized though random in each category — because some places are more prone to infections because of demographics, densities, etc. What fraction of the random tests to be made on these 259 million is of course a matter of calculation by the epidemiologists. Will 30% of the 259 million or 78 million be sufficient? If so,the associated tests for those at the rate of 1 million tests a day will take 2.6 months, taking us to early part of July.
I suggest after my numbers ramblings above, not to be focused on absolute numbers, but only to say in retrospect: the race against time to test, contact trace and isolate was/ is still the best move. Certainly, the epidemiologists in the US knew this after having the lead time observing the China, Korea outbreaks.
It is also a way of demonstrating to myself why massive testing per day is needed before a return to work. I understand Korea had/ has done 400,000 tests a day. Current US test rate is 120,000?
Sorry for the clutter.
Here is my quick and dirty sketch to illustrate my points above. I hope it helps rather than confuse the more.
The white points have to be dealt with, and there are many more of those.
I think this is how epidemiologists also think, thus politicians who ‘d agree with them. Politicians would then convert all this numbers thinking and attempt to apply it to people. Again Hillary’s Martial Law in February.
Sure an otherwise great Thought Experiment under lab conditions, similar to where Hillary was on Egypt, then on Libya, and then on Syria (Hey everyone should experience “DEMOCRACY” that was her thought experiment, precipitated BREXIT among other things).
NH, your 1-2, you have to remember that the anti-vaccination movement started over here, which isn’t really about vaccines but about not having a choice whilst big government gets to do whatever it wants. So even with tests, I think most Americans will not partake.
the notion of “you can work; you cannot work” is already discrimination!
3 unlike China we can’t really contact trace via our phones, sure phone companies have records, and those meta data type stuff can be acquired by the government, but they’ll fight tooth/nail not to release personal info due to lawsuits from people (ie. privacy, marriage dissolved due to info found, etc. etc.).
No one’s gonna sit and answer “where did you go” questions, and with the R0 so high it would be a waste of time.
4 Again see 1-2.
5-6 on random tests, if 1-2 non-random tests won’t be popular, 5-6 random tests will be especially so.
Your ‘sketch’ above reminds me of some terrorist network model derived from cell phones. and you ‘re finding hunting for the obvious terrorists (out in open, symptomatics) and sleepers (asymptomatics). there’s a good chance that they don’t wanna be found, NH.
Maybe this is a intergenerational divide, NH. but you seem focused on returning to normal, when after all this there will be no going back. We all bitch and moan about Climate Change here, but when an actual solution presents itself (no thanks to us) we deny it its logical end.
Michigan has already seen protests, only 1 misstep from gov’t officials to elevate that to a riot. And Michigan with its various militias is a perfect place too where this would start, but I can tell you here in Northern California you got militias too, and also old hippies that just wanna be left alone.
My point, factor in non-participants into your Thought Experiment.
I can’t see these folks agreeing to anti bodies tests or vaccines. But they do make a good point about pot holes, LOL!
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/17/far-right-coronavirus-protests-restrictions
I may call all of them idjuts or craaazzyyy but they would do the same to all who goes against them.
That’s not the point, karl. The point is either all partake or not at all. So any “thought experiment” has to account for this reality, that’s my point. What to do start kidnapping people to vaccinate them, that’s what happened in India for small pox vaccinations.
Consider my post as a one thing leads to another post, not unlike your posts.
On second thought if they do not heed any order of lockdown is that what you call responsible freedom?
I bet they would not protest if we have a massive HIV pandemic or if half their neighborhood gets hit with COVID.
Consider also that most of Trump’s supporters are mostly Whites.
Of those Whites many are obese, suffering from diabetes and heart issues; many are also smokers thus lung issue to boot. They are poor. But since the news is playing up mostly blacks and Latinos succumbing to severe COVID19, most Trump supporters will still defy lock-downs and such.
Racism is part of the American DNA after all.
Asians are affected around the normal range. Same with Whites. I’m sure Pacific islanders and Native Americans with their obesity, diabetes and heart issues too, lung issues three, are up their with Latinos & blacks, but COVID19 just hasn’t reached their neck of the woods yet.
I’m not gonna say stupid or not stupid, because unlike WWE ,
I still hold the position that COVID19 must be allowed to develop fully as a pandemic. I’m like the Lorax, and the more body bags the better going forward, means change for better. So, although i don’t share their ideology I share the logical end w/ them– thus means still justify the end (means here is the virus which is w/out consciousness).
If we solve this now (not that I think any nation will, right now) then we’ll just go back to where we were before. We need a kick in the nuts, karl. COVID19 hopefully is that. So, IMHO everyone just get a stick or a belt, or something and
bite down on it really hard and hope your personal logistical plans are tight (and get Netflix if you don’t already have it). This will hurt. And this will take awhile.
Darwin… all over again.
Seems nature finds out the stupids.
There is hope after all?
Let’s try to keep our families out of this madness.
No, not kidnap and vaccinate, just arrest and isolate/expel/jail is enough. Society needs rules, endangering your fellow citizens in that way is unacceptable. Smallpox is not the flue, not even corona, it had a 30% dead rates, 30% Indians is a lot and the rest of the world isn’t immunized anymore, so you calculate the risk. How many loaded nuclear bombs you need to create the same effect? Allow them too for wiling citizens to possess?
During the Malta plague epidemics, they at least knew how to stop the problems eventually: isolate and if you did not stick to the rules: execute.
I am not advocating the latter, but it certainly showed that only if you take it serious, even simple rules can get rid of the problem. Do not need atomic bombs. Ofcourse, that was not a serious idea, but it shows how serious the situation has become and how ‘simple’ we can solve it, if only we wpuld cooperate as ONE world.
Malta has around half the land area of Metro Manila, so any contagion there spreads easily.
And of course people in the olden days were less educated than today. A lot of modern discipline stems from public education, before people were harder to “convince”.
karlg, social distancing, quarantine and isolation are not good for people’s mental health. we need hugs, proximity of other humans, their smiles and kisses and reassurances, the sound of human voices, pat on the back and the warmth of human interaction.
starve of both human interaction and inter-connectedness and people go bat crazy.
Do that at home with your loved ones, you do not have to hug your next door neighbor.
But you are right my parents live just a few meters away yet when I visit them I just give them a flying kiss.
On another note, they say in India that Social Distancing is for the privileged.
The best analogy to factoring in these non-participants, which I gotta feeling there will be a lot of, is having a peeing section in the pool.
Either all or nothing, NH. Mandatory or not mandatory, if not mandatory then there you have it , you’ll essentially have a peeing section in the pool.
And if you ‘ve been in a pool when someone pees (especially when dehydrated) that orangy to yellow then basically clear but you know it’s now all over the pool, that’s pretty gross!
No peeing in the pool is one of those universal unwritten rules.
dont worry too much po about urine in the pool. urine is organic and pool water is regularly tested for ph value:acidity vs alkalinity and adjusted accordingly with chlorine and sometimes commercial salt added to make pool water safe. further more pool water is filtered and continually top up.
humans I think are the only animals that drink it own pee! therapeutic kuno yang pee in some vedic culture.
at saka, we recycle pee and poo water, undergoing several chemical processes and the processed water became drinking water, faucet water. cheers.
Heck we bathe in the sea with all the excrements of all the living things on earth.
Hahaha… though the analogy wasn’t really about the sanitary nature or medicinal uses of pee.
I think I will start testing urine (my own) as hand washing alternative, because I’m noticing my dry hands from too much hand washing especially when no lotion around may make me susceptible to the virus from cracked hands.
So will try peeing on my hands for disinfection/decontamination. Thanks, kasambahay.
As my daughter of ages past would have said, gross. Cheers to you on a Sunday, nevertheless, Lance.
This plague has destroyed many conventional thinking that Trump and his plutocratic allies don’t want the serfs to know as much as possible.
They want the peasants back to work and continue to be the wage-slaves of the moneyed class in a neo-liberal bubble. Thing is, neo-liberalism will be a crippled crock after this pandemic and, Allah be praised, may it stay deservedly so.
Among the myths that was destroyed, was the myth of federal deficits :
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/17/coronavirus-deficit-american-economy
Micha,
So you’re cheering for COVID19 too??? if so we’re team COVID19 then. I’m hoping AOC ends up being President come November. I gotta feeling all those oldies in DC will bite the dust. So its MMT for all. AOC is probably asymptomatic right now, or if she does end up contracting the virus, she’ll probably just fart it out cuz she’s so young, and healthy, and beautiful— with those crazy MMT eyes of hers!
In some twisted ironic ways this virus is really a knocker of world order exposing vulnerabilities and destroying myths but “cheering” is not the word I’d use for it considering how “this disease can attack almost anything in the body with devastating consequences, from brains to toes” :
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/04/how-does-coronavirus-kill-clinicians-trace-ferocious-rampage-through-body-brain-toes#
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Wall Street parasites are financing the primary challenger to AOC.
https://theintercept.com/2020/04/15/aoc-primary-challenger-cabruso-cabrera-wall-street/
Wall Street’s going down, Micha.
As for the science mag article, should we re-name COVID19 to Selena Gomez virus? if the virus just triggers Lupus then Lupus is the cause of death not the virus no? I’m no pathologist.
Let the wrestling or hair-pulling or whatever extravaganza begin. Would love to see that.
“Wall Street’s going down..”
Hah, if only that were true. Judging from the latest round of federal rescue, Wall Street firms have been emboldened and empowered than ever. The TBTF banks remain unreformed and unregulated. They continue to make risky bets and hedges because they know that even if they fail Uncle Sam will always be there. These are the folks who were among the firsts to learn the insights of MMT and used it to their full advantage.
The corrupt Treasury Secretary have set aside $430 billion from that $2 trillion congress legislated rescue package and, by the magic of fractional reserve, turned it into a $4 trillion slush fund which he alone has the full discretion to disburse, free of oversight, to his cronies and favorite friends at Wall Street.
Wall Street’s not going down, they have taken over the reins of government power – the ultimate coup de tat’, a corporate power grab.
And they are more than happy to throw you a few crumbs to chew on.
AOC is far prettier than Cabruso-Cabrera.
AOC is younger and healthier too.
Thus AOC will win.
Wall Street is in NYC.
NYC is the hardest hit by COVID19.
Thus Wall Street will fall.
Micha, as you’ve said before Wall Street is actually operating under MMT rules.
They are just getting a head start. Once MMT rains down like Manna from heaven.
There will be no reason to save or invest. Wall Street is about investing, convincing people that saving is not cool.
No more saving and investing, because MMT is Manna equals no more reason for Wall Street.
Now of course this all hinges on AOC not dying from COVID19.
Of course, the folks that got a lot of money first will have a lot of money, I’m just speaking here Wall Street as an industry.
“We cannot produce the face masks and ventilators that our citizens need to help stave off death, and we blithely send underpaid nurses to fight a contagious disease with little protection other than plastic garbage bags, but we still build the world’s most advanced fighter jets and aircraft carriers. Meanwhile, millions of Americans live in squalor, our infrastructure is collapsing, and our vast national wealth is sequestered in the hands of a tiny elite. Never has the distortion of our collective priorities been clearer than in the last few weeks.”
https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/04/16/opinion/our-response-coronavirus-demonstrates-how-far-america-has-careened-off-track/
How the new abnormal might look like:
https://slate.com/technology/2020/04/coronavirus-covid19-lockdown-summer-normal-ed-yong.html
Very good informative read!
This is what we should not do.
Consider testing as a waste of money and the hospitals will be overwhelmed like what Holaido did.
I take back what I said about SOKor they did the right thing by testing to the max, well I only said it was to early to tell and there is a second wave coming.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-52305055
Hokkaido
karl, thanks for the link. Enlightening. What do we say in the vernacular: nabinat ng masama?
Oo NH
I don’t think humans will be defeating COVID19 any time soon, karl. Even with testing. Sure East Asians and Scandinavians maybe can pull this testing everyone hat trick; not nowhere else will it happen, karl. For the US it s suspicion of gov’t (plus heterogeneity); for Philippines its lack of funding.
Do not talk about funding and MMT in one one thread LCX.
Expect the borders to stay closed for a while in any case. Most of Eastern Europe shut the borders to Western Europe quickly when Covid hit Italy. 14 days quarantine for returning migrants and workers. Even JAIL for those who break it. Trucks stood almost up to Berlin at the Polish border when it closed. The EU had to create Green Lane rules to keep supplies up. Those who know about the Berlin blockade and the Allied supply airlift know how precarious the logistics of modern cities are, how easily they starve if not supplied.
Romanians are now being flown in to help harvest Germany’s crops. They will live separate from other people, distanced among themselves, I can imagine they will be forced to self-isolate when back in Romania. BTW China’s system of residence and work permits by city and region is a carbon copy of the old Soviet system, which itself was a carbon copy of the system used in the pre-WW1 German Reich. Much of the SOPs in Eastern Europe are of German or Austrian origin while a lot of Pan-European standards are Napoleonic. No wonder the UK felt strange in the EU. They have more in common with the USA, not only language also resistance to national IDs and mandatory residency registration. Western Europe is somewhere between Eastern Europe and UK/US in terms of freedom / order.
Don’t care how long, but stay at home.
Instead of learning to loveyour neighbor, learn to love your loved ones.
Freedom schmidam.
Non participation shmashun
If i do get COVID19 I’m gonna go find Geffen’s yacht , swim for it (while my lungs are still good), once on board, i’ll go find Geffen then sneeze and cough all over him, then jump off, and swim back ashore… oh, and I’ll probably say something like MMT MOFO!!!
Here before the tests went aplenty, one way to find out if you have COVID is to cough at the face of a politician.
If this goes any longer, the tatch and cruise biz will sink.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-30/geffen-s-superyacht-isolation-draws-outrage-while-industry-sinks
PM Markus Söder of Bavaria said those who stand up to early get a relapse.
De facto Bavaria is opening a week later than the rest of Germany, though it is just a partial easing not a release. In fact part of it is getting people used to a new normal.
ireneo, nowadays, common prac po yan for hospitals to release patients sooner than later. bed is needed and it cost around $200 a day to house, feed and care for a recovering patient. better to send them recovering patients home to recuperate on their own time and at their own expenses. and told they were to contact their gp in case of further health problems. there is network of reporting between gp and hospitals, with gp receiving missives beforehand, updating gp of said patients status. sometimes, there is home visits too.
it’s not really patients choice to stand up too early, they were made to do it, pushed.
For those who think the Philippines is Balkanized, look at the real Balkan today:
https://translate.google.com/translate?hl=de&sl=de&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ard-wien.de%2F2020%2F04%2F16%2Fcoronavirus-aktuelle-lage-in-kroatien-ungarn-oesterreich-und-balkan%2F
Aspects of the Philippine situation including checkpoints, poor areas discriminated, weird regulations (see Kosovo which has a kind of odd-even scheme for people being outside) plus political reactions from martial law (Hungary), consensus (Romania) and criticism (Slovenia).
or disunity within the government like in Romania:
“..President Iohannis canceled an agreement between Prime Minister Ludovic Orban and Interior Minister Marcel Vela that they had previously had with the Patriarch of the Orthodox Church, His Bliss Daniel. With Orban’s approval, the interior minister had originally decided with the patriarch to ease the strict curfews for Easter, with effect from Good Friday (April 17th). This decision met with opposition from the Minister of Health and the President, who strictly opposed easing. On Wednesday, Iohannis finally reversed the controversial easing, which was subsequently confirmed by the government..”
(Orthodox Easter is this Sunday, as they never accepted Pope Gregory’s calendar reform)
After all the mess here comes another. Some 163 who have recovered were tested positive again so soon in South Korea. A similar report comes from China. We hope this is just a fluke.
Pre-covid19 when we go out we do not consciously think of a car or plane accident or being mugged. But now and in the future we may become conscious in varied degrees of playing Russian Roulette whenever we venture out.
Mystery it is
The false positives and false negatives is really a bummer, a Russian roulette.
FROM MY READINGS OF TODAY: THE CASE OF NORTH DAKOTA
I am following this for academic reason and the potential lesson that can be learned on the covid19 cases in this low-population but wealthy agricultural state.
North Dakota’s Gov. Doug Burgum (R) was the first on April 16 to issue a plan to reopen the state by May 1, even beating Trump’s announcement of reopening guidelines. Now Gov Burgum said during a press conference on Saturday that the number of new coronavirus cases in North Dakota have increased significantly several days in a row — 28 new cases reported Thursday, 46 Friday and 90 Saturday — increasing the cases from 364 to 528
I calculate the doubling time to be about 5.5 days. Considering the comparatively small cases, with aggressive contact tracing and testing, the state may just be fortunate to nip the case surge before it becomes unwieldy. It is a matter of academic interest to me how it progresses with its planned reopening.
AN INTERACTIVE CHART
While on the subject here is an interesting interactive chart. If you open the link, titled “Tracking Covid-19 cases in the US,”
https://edition.cnn.com/interactive/2020/health/coronavirus-us-maps-and-cases/
and check the chart towards the end of the webpage one sees a chart. By zooming and double tapping on the screen on one of the dim curves one can make appear the covid19 case chart for a US state, where the dim curve becomes a bold red curve for a US state from which one can read the current Doubling Time. Unfortunately, before tapping — much like a fortune cookie — the dim curve is not identified as referring to a particular state. Nevertheless I tried and found that for quite a few states, including the whole US, the Doubling Time has graduated to a range of two weeks to a month, meaning that most of these States are about ripe for reopening, if their request for massive testing are realized.
A RESURGENCE IN SINGAPORE
And now we have the resurgence in Singapore, considered before now as a model in the handling of the coronavirus:
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/18/asia/singapore-coronavirus-response-intl-hnk/index.html
While in the worst-hit countries of western Europe and in the US, thousands of cases are being reported every day, Singapore has a population of 5.7 million people and a total area of around 700 square kilometers — it is smaller than New York City — meaning those numbers are more significant.
But Singapore also has advantages that many larger countries don’t. It only has one major land border, with Malaysia, and can keep a tight control on people entering by air. It also has a world-class health system and a propensity for somewhat draconian rules and policing that can benefit a government when trying to control a pandemic.
So what went wrong?
The answer appears to lie in overlooked clusters of cases among migrant workers living in cramped dormitories and an underestimation of the speed at which those infections could spread through a city where lockdown measures had not been put in place.
The Covid19 Case Chart of Singapore is interesting. The case numbers were relatively low and growing slowly until April 8, from then it grew from 1623 to today’s (April 19) 6588.
I checked that on April 2, its Case Doubling Time was 13; about a week after that, 9; and today about 5. Fortunately for the country, the death from the virus stands only at 11 — a death to cases rate of only 0.2% compared to more than 4% for most countries.
LESSONS
In my opinion, my two notes above offer, including what is happening in Japan and Russia, lessons for Trump, his “FOX” friends, and some Republicans itching to reopen especially in the light of statements of shortages in the necessary massive testing — coming from almost all sectors, including fellow Republicans and Red State Governors.
Hinay, hinay lang Boss.
AN INDICTMENT
I would like to add the following paragraphs from the link about Singapore above — an indictment on Singapore on its treatment of migrant workers [sours greatly my Sunday]:
It’s unclear whether those infections were from migrant workers coming in from outside, or if the virus was circulating among the largely-untested population for some time. What is evident is that the conditions that workers live in made effective social distancing — or “home” quarantine — next to impossible, making it easy for the virus to spread.
“The dormitories were like a time bomb waiting to explode,” Tommy Koh, a Singapore lawyer and former diplomat, wrote in a widely-shared Facebook post earlier this month. “The way Singapore treats its foreign workers is not First World but Third World. The government has allowed their employers to transport them in flat bed trucks with no seats. They stay in overcrowded dormitories and are packed likes sardines with 12 persons to a room.”
Koh added that “Singapore should treat this as a wake up call to treat our indispensable foreign workers like a First World country should and not in the disgraceful way in which they are treated now.”
From Germany’s BILD paper editor-in-chief, a sharp response to Xi Jinping:
A lot of truth in that. Thanks for the video.
Database of hospitals and quarantine centers in Metro Manila:
https://www.philstar.com/covid19-emergency/manila
Useful information. Thanks, Irineo.
https://news.abs-cbn.com/ancx/culture/spotlight/04/19/20/recent-data-suggests-the-philippines-is-doing-better-in-flattening-the-curve
We are doing better according to the numbers.