The American Presidential Election and the Philippines
Candidates Biden and Trump [Photo source: CNN]
By Joe America
The American presidential election may significantly affect both Philippine and US policies versus China. We often hear the criticism that President Obama failed to bring the US into Asia to counter China. We have not yet heard from Democratic candidate Biden on the subject of China. Trade, nada. Open seas, nada. Mutual Defense Treaty with the Philippines, nada.
We know the Trump Administration has turned aggressively to China to put a halt to her theft, bullying, and bad behavior. US officials cite the Philippine arbitration win as the grounding in law they need to keep seas open and free. Philippine defense and foreign affairs officials cite the Mutual Defense Treaty between the US and Philippines as their backstop should Philippine vessels be attacked.
Well, Asia is only one policy plank in the US election. There are others. Income inequality. Horrid handling of the coronavirus. The economy. Immigration. Relations with allies. Global warming fostering climate change. Policing and discrimination; riots and killings.
We in the Philippines may be inclined to look at it from provincial eyes. China and open seas. But there’s a lot more to it than that.
I personally like the US hard-pivot to Asia and agree that it could have come sooner and stopped intrusions such as China’s take-over of Scarborough Shoal.
My problem is I can’t get down to the policy issues for the bigger umbrella issues of character and principle.
- Do I think an honest president is better than a liar? Yes.
- Do I think a compassionate president is better than a racist? Yes.
- Do I think a president who seeks to unify is better than one who divides? Yes.
- Do I think a president who respects democratic institutions is better than one who tears them down? Yes.
These fundamentals affect every policy decision. Matters of trust and integrity are important to me. Oh, yes, there is no question I am richer because of Trump’s economic plan that favors businesses such as his own, and that has driven the values of my investment portfolio, which is tech heavy, into the stratosphere. But easy come, easy go. America needs to stand for something other than near-term profits for the economically entitled.
What good are my stocks if my son inherits a wasted planet?
I’m for Joe Biden.
Almost half of America is not.
This blog article will set aside the discussion space so we can hear your views.
Do keep the discussion focused on issues, and civil. Thanks.
The Society of Honor by Joe America 
Biden first addressed the BLMs by having a mixed raced VP,
As a non Fil am still interested in US affairs.
Political correctness became we are correct and you are deplorable.
I even read some one hitting alm that maybe he would distespect 911 by saying that all buildings matter.
I hope Biden speaks up on Indo Pacific affairs soon enough.
I alao hope that he is not a liar,not a racist,not divisivd, and will respect democratic institutions.
There was a post recently by isk implying that the dems were sort of denying bipartisan decision making of the Gulf war. Isk you can correct me if I am wrong.
I read somewhere that the dems were against barring inward or inbound flights from abroad before the lockdown and now they are making fun of : “It is what it is” by Trump.
Just my one centavo.
I’m thinking Biden will follow the counsel of his defense chiefs which is hawkish against China. He has no issue to grind against Trump on it. And he may not wish to politicize defense. He’s old school in that regard. We’ll have to wait and see.
We will wait and see.
Karl,
Prominent political figures in American politics often times are good comedy materials.
In that comedy segment the host and the audience made fun of Biden’s comment of not being anti-war.
Here is Biden’s stand on wat without being lost in translation or misquotation.
—-
End Forever Wars: Biden will end the forever wars in Afghanistan and the Middle East, which have cost us untold blood and treasure. As he has long argued, Biden will bring the vast majority of our troops home from Afghanistan and narrowly focus our mission on Al-Qaeda and ISIS. And he will end our support for the Saudi-led war in Yemen. Staying entrenched in unwinnable conflicts only drains our capacity to lead on other issues that require our attention, and it prevents us from rebuilding the other instruments of American power.
Elevate Diplomacy: As president, Biden will elevate diplomacy as the premier tool of our global engagement…..
—
Thank you.
Pleasure.
That’s the problem, when the war gone awry… hands must be cleaned.
Thanks Karl.
https://www.factcheck.org/2019/09/bidens-record-on-iraq-war/
Here is what I can gather on Biden’s policy on China and Taiwan.
https://thediplomat.com/2020/07/team-bidens-policies-on-china-and-taiwan/
Thanks. Speculative. Does see new realities. Biden has been ‘one China’ on Taiwan. That’s interesting. See if that’s changed.
Biden’s China policirs.
https://thediplomat.com/2020/07/team-bidens-policies-on-china-and-taiwan/
Double post. It is speculative, My speculation is that Biden’s followiing Trump’s lead on China and probably Taiwan.
If Biden wins, that means no more MAGA and we start reaching out to the world again. That usually means more wars again. Because projecting American ideals, usually means projecting military might.
If Trump wins, that means more MAGA, which means about face from the world, and work on our selves. You guys take care of yourselves, we take care of our infrastructure and this whole lib vs. lib divide (liberal vs. libertarian, more gov’t vs less gov’t). Less to zero wars. Because pause on projecting American ideals.
The buzz in DC right now is GPC (that’s Great Power Competition) and NPA (Near Peer Adversary), stupid unnecessary acronyms for China. Yes, we remember WWII, going insular equals other powers increase. But if you study Trump’s game with China,
with 5G and TikTok, he’s essentially blocked China off, contained it. Where the Biden/Clinton types (i really think Obama too was a nationalist like Bernie also same-same w/ Trump) would further increase China’s status, thru coochy-coo geo-politics, meaning here China have more, here ‘s more of our jobs and deficit, you get more powerful. Please have some more, China.
So no Biden ‘s past dealings with China wasn’t good for the USA. Trump’s has uncovered our weak position with China. he’s pushed back, and lo and behold, China’s not so powerful after all, lots of vulnerable points.
If the choice is a more powerful China then go with Biden; a weakened more exposed China then go with Trump.
But my point here is that Americans could care less what our policy is regarding China, so long as jobs return to the US, that’s basically what MAGA is about; so too lessening wars.
the World should celebrate a more tame USA, with less wars abroad. Less wars means we can use more tax dollars here, not there. Don’t be in such a hurry to go to war with China. South China Sea is already lost, bye-bye
like Go when you have a group of stones that ‘s been surrounded, you cut your loses and strengthen your other groups, like the Celebes Sea and the Philippine Sea. Indonesia and the Philippines should protect the Bajaus en mass, all thru out the Celebes Sea, by so doing when China
or Chinese fishing boats and pirates go for the Celebes Sea, both Indonesia and the Philippines can say hey these Bajaus are under our protection. Same with Philippine Sea, its kinda big but start connecting your stones there too.
re China, yup Filipinos are better off with Trump, at least he’s not gonna make China stronger. He won’t help the Philippines, but he won’t make China stronger either.
The China situation is much more than contested seas. It’s stolen proprietary information, gamed trade, unfair competition, and tipping the global balance of power to a brutal, totalitarian philosophy of governance. And biological whatever this is.
If Americans want a self-contained near-term future, China will eat their long term lunch. Trump’s people see it. I suspect Biden’s will, too. So to me, there is no distinction on China policy between the two candidates at this point. Speculation is speculation, make-up stuff. I’ll await Biden’s policy on China before judging.
Agreed, much more than South China Seas, but as pointed out 5G is now ours, under Hillary we’d all be enjoying Huawei 5G right now. And then more wars in the ME.
Of course, Biden can’t run on the platform of “my China policy is the same as Trump’s !” , he’d have to be opposite. Maybe he’ll say we’ll annex HK, but my point here, Joe, is that there’s only two choices really,
1. Continue down the same Dem China policy.
2. Or copy Trump.
If Biden copies Trump, why vote for Biden? Because his rhetoric sounds more feel goody, lol, don’t look at words look at actions. We’ve never before been where we are with China, Joe. Don’t get me wrong, the US Navy is like a dog in heat right now and humping anything that looks like China.
But what’s keeping everything together re geo-politics is the fact that we have a president that talks a lot of smack, but doesn’t want to go to war. Usually it’s “American resolve” then war; same pattern, now world leaders don’t really know what to do.
Biden will again be “American resolve” then war. Not with China because China pays. Trump’s like Zima, zumthing zifferent.
Vote for Biden for character and respect of democracy.
Fresh from the oven to your door:
AUGUST 31, 2020
Joe Biden Delivers Remarks on Public Safety and Law Enforcement.
2020 Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden delivered remarks in Pittsburgh on public safety and law enforcement.
https://www.c-span.org/video/?475311-1/joe-biden-delivers-remarks-public-safety-law-enforcement
For speed readers, here is the speech transcript:
https://www.rev.com/blog/transcripts/joe-biden-pittsburgh-speech-transcript-august-31
He got it right, the issue is lawlessness. When one refused/resist/fought back the arresting police officers, this ends up in tragedy. The violence could have been controlled had the city and states officials did their sworn duties to protect the lives and properties of their constituents.
And why most of the violent protest occurred in Democratic run cities for months? And why those organizers/leaders of this movement continued their activities when they knew this will end up in chaos?
As to fracking, there are lots of Biden vs Biden videos on this issue.
As an observer, in America it seems the art of compromise is gone. DACA though unconstitutional has good intention. On the other hand, securing the border is relevant too to control the influx of economic migrants, I think.
@LCpl_X, it seems that China isn’t that vulnerable like you wish to think.
https://news.yahoo.com/trumps-tariffs-coronavirus-chinas-exports-190336534.html
Andrew,
vulnerability is a spectrum. I never said China is vulnerable, just that under the Dems China tends to increase in power, but with Trump in office China gets dialed down. China is Near Peer Adversary all the Pentagon white papers are talking about.
Now for the scenario where China and the US disentangle themselves, sure i’ve posted on that too awhile back, and China gets Africa and SE Asia. that was then, but according to where 5G is being set up, it turns out SE Asia is going to US too, not sure about Africa yet.
There’s more sense in the US now, that we should start buying Made in USA. And that’s a big deal, never would’ve happened without Trump.
For example,
This i’ve seen a lot of here in the West Coast now, i’ve only seen this in the East Coast, so they’ve stepped up production for sure.
https://blacklocustwood.com/black-locust-lumber/
This one is what I’m excited about,
https://www.bridgestone.com/technology_innovation/natural_rubber/guayule/
caliphman and Micha can talk more about import/export and how a central bank plays a role , but i’m only showing samples of what i’m seeing, now for sure Halloween is almost here and costumes made in China are back, either they are new or just last year’s I dunno,
and will there even be Halloween this year? i dunno. lots of unknowns.
p.s.— a bunch of people now going to Whole Foods, mostly Amazon Prime folks are the new customers.
The Electoral College has to be scrapped. The Electoral College may have been a good idea at the time of the framing of the constitution but it is outdated and definitely perverse today.
Agree.
Electoral college worked the way it was designed. tyranny of majority vs. tyranny of minority; 2016 it curbed the tyranny of the majority. Dems have to actually
win over the minority. But 2020, thanks to all the anti-cop (equals anti- law and order) stuff, the minority seems to be growing. that’s suburban households.
I am for Biden too. Though, obviously I can’t vote in the US election. That said, let me put my first post this way:
The policy plank that is missing in Biden’s is probably, in my opinion, aimed to win by a limited choice of critical issues rather than go-to items that can offer a distraction and good targets by Trump and the GOP to exploit. As some say in this election — 63 days to that date currently — the main fight is between the issue of self-defined or imagined violence and the associated self-defined/ imagined law and order issue that Trump represents versus the non-stop lies and fatal handling of coronavirus and racism and their effects on Americans that Biden and Team choose to concentrate on.
If Trump wins re-election, his character will not suddenly reverse. The self-promotion and lies will still be there, but probably he will be persuaded more in the remaining years to work on improving his statements and actions so that he can be seen in history as not a bad US President after all. That will be debatable of course — as perhaps his sister Trump Barry and niece Mary Trump can attest.
Here is an issue on fitness that Biden may challenge Trump during the First Debate, from reading something after that post above:
Challenge Trump to a push-up by [Biden] doing a good number on stage and showing a year of tax returns, then he will agree to a Fourth Debate that Trump craves.
Just picture Trump doing the push-up if you can. I wonder what that will do to his tie and his hair.
I hope I am civil in my post as the blog has advised. 🙂
That is:
Joe Biden has to run an aggressive campaign that goes way beyond reminding people he’s nicer than Trump.
This reminds me of a Joe we know — nice and sweet but does a good punch that hits home. 🙂
Remember Biden’s been holed up in his basement, NH. Even the last day of RNC, Kamala Harris had to talk for Biden. So over here, it’s like where’s Joe Biden. So he first needs to get out of his basement, and be seen amongst the public, NH. Then he’ll look strong.
You can’t look strong, w/out any public events. Sure wear masks, but it has to be in public. Public is where politicians appear strong, leave push ups for American Ninja Warrior. Irrelevant.
You are such a cornball Trumpist. Everything is turned toward Trump. Even if we knew Biden’s breakfast cereal, you’d put a spin to it. lol
I have to check what cornball [Merriam-Webster: silly] is before posting this.
Haha. Indeed. My friend Lance seeing Biden eat corn-flake cereals will complain the cereal bits are small, not big enough to look strong. 🙂
It’s election time, if Bernie was on the ticket, i’d be going nuts for Bernie, alas only Trump is the sane choice (which is insane really).
I won’t be surprise if Micha secretly votes for Trump either, Joe. He’ll the closest right now to enacting MMT. and Micha knows it, not Dirrrty Delaware Joe Biden. Can you imagine if Biden utters the letters MMT? the sky would fall. Delaware would be like Atlantis!
I’d rather hear it from Micha than you trying to put words in his/her mouth. By the way, I read this article this morning. Trump has lost the military support that usually goes to the Republican candidate. https://www.militarytimes.com/news/pentagon-congress/2020/08/31/as-trumps-popularity-slips-in-latest-military-times-poll-more-troops-say-theyll-vote-for-biden/
Heh heh. You got it!
Piling it on, sorry, Lance.
This part of Biden’s Speech in Pittsburg rhymes rather well with the link Joe posted about Biden getting the military support which usually goes to the Republicans.
Joe Biden: (14:44 into the audio)
And instead of telling Vladimir Putin that there’d be no putting up with this, that there’d be a heavy price to pay if they dare touch an American soldier, this president doesn’t even bring up the subject in his multiple phone calls with Putin. It’s been reported that Russian forces just attacked American troops in Syria, injuring our service members. Did you hear the president say a single word? Did he lift one finger? Never before has an American president played such a subservient role to a Russian leader. It’s not only dangerous, it’s humiliating and embarrassing for the rest of the world to see, it weakens us. Not even American troops can feel safer under Trump.
Most Marines I know subscribe to Leatherneck and/or MC Gazette, Joe.
I ‘ve never read anything from Military Times, let me research, but I gotta hunch it’ll be backed by the Clinton Foundation.
As for Micha as a fellow Bernie supporter there’s only two ways, and I know Micha loves MMT. Logically, Micha’s better off with Trump if MMT is the point.
It’s Micha’s decision, not yours. Simple. Wait. We might hear from Micha.
“MilitaryTimes.com is a part of the Sightline Media Group, formerly known as the Army Times Publishing Company, which first published Army Times in 1940. Throughout its history, the company has a strong heritage and tradition of meeting the highest standards of independent journalism and has expanded with publications serving all branches of the U.S. military, the global defense community, the U.S. federal government, and several special interest, defense-oriented industry sectors. MilitaryTimes.com provides quality, unbiased reporting on the important issues for the military community . . .”
Chart from the link posted by Joe above:
NH, it’s a dirty business…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Khasham#Unofficial_Russian_sources_version
“The number of casualties from the Feb. 7 fight is in dispute.
Initially, Russian officials said only four Russian citizens — but perhaps dozens more — were killed; a Syrian officer said around 100 Syrian soldiers had died. The documents obtained by The Times estimated 200 to 300 of the “pro-regime force” were killed.
The outcome of the battle, and much of its mechanics, suggest that the Russian mercenaries and their Syrian allies were in the wrong part of the world to try a simple, massed assault on an American military position. Since the 2003 invasion of Iraq, the United States Central Command has refined the amount of equipment, logistics, coordination and tactics required to mix weapons fired from both the air and ground.
Questions remain about exactly who the Russian mercenaries were, and why they attacked.
American intelligence officials say that the Wagner Group, known by the nickname of the retired Russian officer who leads it, is in Syria to seize oil and gas fields and protect them on behalf of the Assad government. The mercenaries earn of a share of the production proceeds from the oil fields they reclaim, officials said.
The mercenaries loosely coordinate with the Russian military in Syria, although Wagner’s leaders have reportedly received awards in the Kremlin, and its mercenaries are trained at the Russian Defense Ministry’s bases.
Russian government forces in Syria maintain they were not involved in the battle. But in recent weeks, according to United States military officials, they have jammed the communications of smaller American drones and gunships such as the type used in the attack.
“Right now in Syria, we’re in the most aggressive E.W. environment on the planet from our adversaries,” Gen. Tony Thomas, the head of United States Special Operations Command, said recently, referring to electronic warfare. “They’re testing us every day.”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regent,_L.P.
This tells me, Democrat bent, Joe.
Huh? The link doesn’t say anything. What is Democrat bent?
The ripostes are interesting, nice and lively.
[In my youth I did foil fencing. Riposte is a quick parry and attack.]
More than the absolute numbers note the trend. And Joe’s link says the end of the chart was done before the two conventions.
@Joe, @Lance:
Huh? From here too.
NH/Joe,
Regent LP owns Military Times, and I just realize too that they also owned AFJ, that’s Armed Forces Journal, which I use to read regularly and went dark in 2015 or so. They had a lively blog, which is partly why I ended up here when that went dark.
I was trying to find flaws in the stats, I instantly went for the newspaper and ownership, but realized the stats were compiled by a school. It does not reflect my understanding of folks in the military, thus the doubt.
But having now read the article, it’s a sampling size issue I think. NH can address this more i’m sure. But i don’t buy the polling. If they can prove that they asked the same exact folks from 2016 to 2020, then that might give it credence. Otherwise,
Dubious.
say to HI to Ireneo for us when you move to Switzerland, Micha! 😉
In other words, the facts don’t fit your bias, so discard the facts. A sampling of over 1,000, which they used, is plenty big enough to have statistical integrity.
But she noted the poll, which has been administered in the same way for the past four years, is not a perfect snapshot of public opinion within the entire military force. The average age of poll respondents was nearly 39 years, and the participant pool was culled and verified from Military Times subscriber lists and databases.
Feaver said the poll “is a good sample of the career-oriented military members’ views, which may be different from the junior enlisted view of things.”
(from the article)
Joe, I’m no officer and the bulk of the military is enlisted.
Whatever.
@Joe, if the sample size of 1000 is a random sample, the standard deviation (aka error) is plus-minus 3%.
Thanks
The imagined law and order issue, it’s already September, 2020.
https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/executive-order-safe-policing-safe-communities/
The fatal handling of Coronavirus and racism vs the early restriction of International travel and setting up the logistics (navy hospital ships) among others.
As an observer, parang mahirap humakbang sa makitid na tulay kung salat sa pang balanse hinggil sa usapin.
@Lcpl_X
The current operating strategy of the Bernie wing is to unite behind Uncle Joe and pull him back hard from the middle towards the left when he’s already in office.
Whether that strategy will work is, of course, still up in the air. And given what happened in the primary where the centrist Dems let loose their long knives on him after South Carolina, not all of Bernie progressives are on board. Already, Jimmy Dore is forming a coalition for a third party that could field candidates for the 2022 midterms.
Personally, am just too exhausted with the Orange Man’s mendacity, corruption, and racism. He’s done enough damage, most of it irreparable, in one term. I think I’d consider moving to Switzerland if he gets another..
I hope you’re good at yodeling , Micha. But seriously though, i’m surprise your lack of disdain for the Dems considering twice now they’ve thrown Bernie under the bus (2020 was actually kinda fair fight). So you’re not voting then?
I truly believe BLM 2014-2015 is the reason for Trump 2016, and just before 2020 election, they revived BLM 2020. It’s almost like they want Trump to win.
The line of thinking that “black lives matter’ drove white racists to rebel and unify behind Trump? It incited fear of immigration and all those Muslim terrorists trying to get in, and them damn Mexicans sneaking over the border to work the farms? That’s your thinking?
Nope, my thinking is Americans in general prefer law and order, to chaos and lawlessness.
Violent crimes is down , Joe, from the 90s on, so why would violence by cops on blacks go up? So no, cops aren’t going after blacks, but that is the basis of BLM. local news made national.
Becuz that doesn’t ring true, for example here in L.A. metro area , police interactions with blacks is totally better compared to Daryl Gates time, but mostly because the black vs. Mexican issue is at play, which have made blacks allies of cops.
that’s why you don’t see South Central burning, Joe, but BLM wants us to think this is a national issue.
And we saw that after St. Louis and Baltimore riots in 2015, voters rejected BLM, elected Trump. BLM will vote Trump into office again , Joe.
Okay, Nostradamus. I’ll go by the polls which say Trump is in deep grass.
Just remember the polls also favored Hillary in 2016, Joe.
Right, then Comey blew her campaign out of the water and Russian bear hats were flung to the skies in celebration!
The Comey effect was accounted for, Joe. They made a big fuss over that remember? And still Hillary led the polls. Why do you think Rachel Maddow cried? She thought Hillary was really gonna win. Everyone did, Joe. Then 3 states flipped. Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin. Guess where Kenosha is? Where did Biden make his “Trump wants to Defund the Police” speech today? BLM is a huge part of all this.
Agree it’s a part. How has yet to play out. So we can watch.
Here’s good study on what happened with the polls in 2016,
https://www.aapor.org/Education-Resources/Reports/An-Evaluation-of-2016-Election-Polls-in-the-U-S.aspx
“State-level polls showed a competitive, uncertain contest… In the contest that actually mattered, the Electoral College, state-level polls showed a competitive race in which Clinton appeared to have a slim advantage. Eight states with more than a third of the electoral votes needed to win the presidency had polls showing a lead of three points or less (Trende 2016).[2] As Sean Trende noted, “The final RealClearPolitics Poll Averages in the battleground states had Clinton leading by the slimmest of margins in the Electoral College, 272-266.” The polls on average indicated that Trump was one state away from winning the election.
…but clearly under-estimated Trump’s support in the Upper Midwest. Polls showed Hillary Clinton leading, if narrowly, in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, which had voted Democratic for president six elections running. Those leads fed predictions that the Democratic Blue Wall would hold. Come Election Day, however, Trump edged out victories in all three.
There are a number of reasons as to why polls under-estimated support for Trump. The explanations for which we found the most evidence are:
Real change in vote preference during the final week or so of the campaign. About 13 percent of voters in Wisconsin, Florida and Pennsylvania decided on their presidential vote choice in the final week, according to the best available data. These voters broke for Trump by near 30 points in Wisconsin and by 17 points in Florida and Pennsylvania.
Adjusting for over-representation of college graduates was critical, but many polls did not do it. In 2016 there was a strong correlation between education and presidential vote in key states. Voters with higher education levels were more likely to support Clinton. Furthermore, recent studies are clear that people with more formal education are significantly more likely to participate in surveys than those with less education. Many polls – especially at the state level – did not adjust their weights to correct for the over-representation of college graduates in their surveys, and the result was over-estimation of support for Clinton.
Some Trump voters who participated in pre-election polls did not reveal themselves as Trump voters until after the election, and they outnumbered late-revealing Clinton voters. This finding could be attributable to either late deciding or misreporting (the so-called Shy Trump effect) in the pre-election polls. A number of other tests for the Shy Trump theory yielded no evidence to support it.”
You are effectively saying 2016 =2020.
As a scientist, I subscribe to the saying, when the facts change, I change my mind.
But keep selling if the Editor allows it. You may still convince Joe, Micha, and me — about why your Dear Leader is invincible.
Nope, BLM is the same, meaning the law and order vote. There’s COVID19 and the fact that Trump has no wars. Other factors too.
But BLM is the same, NH.
Patrick Basham, director of the Democracy Institute, said: “In any political campaign, there’s a moment that tells you which way the electoral wind is blowing.
“That moment arrived on Wednesday. Joe Biden restated his support for peaceful protests but, crucially, condemned the violence that has come to dominate the monthslong nationwide protest movement. “When a candidate changes his tune three quarters of the way through a race, it is not because he knows he holds a winning hand.
“He does so because the electoral ground is shifting beneath his feet.”
According to the poll, law and order is the top political issue with 37 per cent putting it as the most important, followed by 27 per cent for the economy.
https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1329181/us-election-2020-donald-trump-joe-biden
The Express. Okay. My impression is it is of those ad-infested tabloids appealing to, whom, escapes me. Someone on the outer fringes of the norm curve I’d guess. I don’t read them. I like my news reputable and readable.
By the way, it’s peculiar to me that COVID-19 wasn’t one of the top issues. Protests I get. Economy. OK. But not Trump’s folly, hundreds of thousands of dead Americans?
Well, Lance, Micha said his piece and answered Joe’s earlier query. Because he does not like the development of the intra-dem-party primary, does not logically lead him to jump to the fire and vote for Orange Man who he despises, just to spite the dem party. I believe it is a principled response.
But going to Switzerland? Swampland is that bad, huh?
Of course, Micha’s not gonna move to Switzerland, NH. All the bankers and billionaires are there. I won’t be surprise if Micha joins the Trump administration, once he green lights MMT.
The shamelessness, the mendacity is appalling enough, but when lives are at stake, it becomes horrible. The recent announcement from the FDA on its consideration of Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) for coronavirus vaccine before Phase 3 trials are completed is of that kind, no doubt prodded by your Orange Man. The logic being the application of the general rule for EUA: when there is no alternative way to mitigate the effects of the virus, EUA can be undertaken. But we know there is an effective uncostly way to mitigate, through mandating the use of masks, social distancing, etc, which numerous studies have shown to be effective while waiting for that vaccine, which must get the trust of the populace to have enough of them taking it to produce herd immunity. With trust lost because of these magic tricks, It will surely increase the anti-vaxxer percentage. And thus, ruin the very object of the vaccine. Goodness gracious.
Some numbers: with 100% efficacy, a safe vaccine for coronavirus — from my readings — requires 70-75 percent vaccination to yield herd immunity. With an increase of anti-vaxxer percentage beyond, say, 35 percent which is likely if trust in the vaccine softens because of FDA machination, herd immunity may not be reached through the vaccine. So the other part of the immunity will come from the practice of wearing masks, etc. [Besides, the vaccine though safe may not be 100% effective — which will be a complicating factor.] That will be a pretty picture.
The term, “Holy Ghost,” can be found mentioned in at least 6 blog articles at TSH.
For example, in November 2016, Josephivo wrote:
x-
I wrote about our “post-factual” society in a previous blog, but now I realize there is a more fundamental shift. One can discuss the wingspan of a Philippine eagle and the wingspan of the Holy Ghost. This are two very different fields, one should have factual underpinnings, and the other is solely based on beliefs. In the new world it seems that we threw away this distinction. Every issue is solely a belief thing and thus facts are superfluous or even stronger they are “elitist”.
-x
Are you a social media bigot?
http://j.mp/ja-hg3 243
Note about the shortcut:
ja – JoeAm
hg – Holy Ghost
3 – 3rd of the 6
243 – the number of comments posted in that article
More on this, later, if JoeAm will permit me to continue posting.
(Of course, I intend to relate my posts to the topic here.)
Shortcuts keep it short … and pithy.
IMHO.
http://j.mp/ja-hg
ja-hg1 45
ja-hg2 122
ja-hg3 243
ja-hg4 50
ja-hg5 265
ja-hg6 664
ja-hg7 61 (after my posting)
so what’s
ja-hg8 42?
because that’s the meaning of life, i7sharp!
Lance,
Thanks for your input.
Let me use more examples:
1.
“ja-hg6 664”
http://j.mp/ja-hg6 664 comments
“Ist Gott tot? (Is God dead?)”
In it, you will find this:
x-
Lance,
2 Peter 1:21
“For the prophecy came not in old time by the will of man:
but holy men of God spake as they were moved by the Holy Ghost.”
Moses could not have known by himself, for example, the life spans of Adam, Seth, …
“And all the days that Adam lived were nine hundred and thirty years: and he died.”
Genesis chapter 5
i7sharp
-x
2.
“ja-hg6 50”
http://j.mp/ja-hg4 50 comments
“Halleluyah – a blaze of light”
Excerpt:
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I do not know what chemrock means by “filled with Holy Halleluyah”
but the phrase brought to my mind, “filled with the Holy Ghost,”
which, by the way, occurs eight times in the King James.
-x
Remember all the Muslim Brotherhood fellas that Obama had implanted in the White House and Hillary had surrounded herself as advisors? Let’s bring them back. Vote Biden.
Is this Biden’s trademark gaffe, or was he quoting a script by the Muslim connections, or was it an honest ignorant misquote?
He’s not a scholar of Islam and made a mistake in the eyes of some. Let’s draw up a t-chart and list Biden’s mistakes to the left and Trump’s lies and gaffes on the right and see which is worse. Or better yet, let’s set aside the fallacious one-off cases of humanity not being perfect and look at the policies and deeds. And character that underpins them.
No, I don’t remember the Muslim Brotherhood fellas. I remember an economic catastrophe that he righted, and a decent, intelligent black man winding with dignity through the nasty minefields that right wing nutters and racists set up for him.
chemp’s point is good too, Joe, and I too remember the Muslim Brotherhood connection, but I don’t place too much weight in it, i think its wrong , but its par for the course, it’s the same with Republicans and Liberty law school students in D.C. (because you know lawyers are the next priesthood),
i’ve been calling out Liberty and Regent university law grads (Falwell’s and Pat Robertson’s schools) in D.C. since my ACLU article here. Now all this Falwell pool and wife scandal, ouch. same-same religious hypocrisy.
But i see it as the same, product of a democracy, like lobbying, China sends “experts” to DC too. Everyones interest is represented in DC, except that of the American public. All we want is for wars to stop, plus law and order at home, and we’ll get things done same as we’ve always done
since the pioneer days, since wild wild West days, Joe.
Your view that Biden can show good in polls but lose the electoral college is well-stated in this Boston Globe article. “You don’t have to like Trump to vote for him.”
https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/08/31/opinion/biden-is-track-lose-electoral-college/?outputType=amp&__twitter_impression=true
I see my friend chemmy is still around and added his voice to this witches brew of who now appears likely to win the November elections. The question of who Should win should not even be a question except to those unlike Micha and me as well most of humanity who remain human and humane and cannot stand the lies, corruption, selfish narcissism, and last but least the incompetence of Trump and his administration. To those supporters whose olfactory senses have not been overwhelmed by the stench of his character, personality, and lack of ethics, then what is at issue may not be a weak mind but lack of a moral compass.
Having said that, it is true Trump is a savvy political animal and almost everything he does is driven by political calculation and self interest regardless of the cost and risk to Americans and the world at large. Biden and Democrats should not be overconfident. The odds are narrowing that an orange haired Duterte may emerge and rule this country in a second term.
For those who follow or are invested and prospered in the US stock market, despite these calamitous times, heed what it has to say about the odds favoring Trump or Biden come this November based on the best and most recent information currently available. This article is fairly technical but,having worked in Wall Street myself, credible.
In summary, the writer’s opinion is the market is indicating a future narrowing trend in Biden’s lead over Trump after discounting the latest political trends. This is based on an analysis of put and call option futures pricing and relative volatility which of course us subject to change.
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2020-09-01/buy-biden-and-faangs-markets-mix-noise-with-clear-signals
You’re making it sound like Trump is sui generous, caliphman. Like he is an aberration. when Americans have and since Bill Clinton been seeing succeeding Presidents as sub specious (i’m sure others were dirrrty too, but i’m talking media thus public perception ).
Hillary and pizza-gate, for example, for all the Q-anon snickering among the liberal Dems, Hillary never explained why the pizza code words in her emails (extra pepperoni, extra cheese, no anchovis, etc.). Of course they were code words, and all she had to say was that hey my email and messages could be compromised, thus the secret speak,
but they were just political matters really or national security stuff. I ‘d rather not talk about it, and that’s all she could’ve said, and nip at the bud, but because she insisted to just laugh it off, conspiracy theories developed, now
That Epstein ‘s dead, and his gf arrested, we’re now finding hey maybe Q-anon was right after all, not child sex ring per se, but more like teenage high school girls in secret mansions and islands (per what was uncovered). See now the conspiracy theory becomes real, and lo and behold, Bill Clinton’s photo with said girls,
now the narrative is connected, and it all makes sense, but had Hillary nipped it in the bud, we’d all not even be able to connect all this as such.
That’s just one clear example, all others are hidden, so my point Americans like to see things clear, transparency, and Trump comes the closest, because he’s kinda dumb speaks what he thinks, no filter. So there’s lies and lies, but Trump’s not so hidden.
Again, most Americans connect Delaware w/ dirrrty dealings especially after the Panama papers. While we’ve seen Trump since 70s match dirrrty with dirrrty with mafia and nyc politicians. So this notion that its a moral fight, it’s not
its just not, caliphman. Because they are all dirrrty at the top. you’re in Wall Street you know this with all the secret companies and moving money around, etc. Micha i’m sure knows this too.
it’s a Lesser Evil situation, and not what you purport as this Good vs. Evil stuff. Americans are pretty smart, maybe not many have college degrees, but they can figure stuff out.
Caliphman, thanks for sharing the link. I read the article with interest but confess to not understanding the various nuances the writer discussed on my first, rather quick read. The ending portion of the article corresponds, I believe, to your concluding paragraph, illustrated by the chart below which the two economic Nobel laureates call as Tail-Sharpe Ratio: measured by “the ratio of upside volatility — or good risk implied by call options — over downside volatility – or bad risk implied by put options.”
Previous to June there is marked volatility in the chart and much less so from there. There is, of course, the observed tightening of the competition towards the end of the chart when the two conventions had run their courses.
The link presents a contrast to the link posted above by Joe on the Electoral College item. I may note that this article by John Authers presents different ideas with cautionary words compared to the aggressive tone by John Ellis in the link on the Electoral College.
I don’t know anything about this stuff, NH.
But I do know that the housing market is hot of late; one guy I talked to who knows something about this, said most people since the beginning of COVID19 lockdowns, took out their stock/bonds money and
started buying homes with it, because interests are low and more secure than stock market.
So i think not so smart people, seeing the writing on the wall, have adjusted, and bought real estate, thus and this will make Micha happy Wall Street and finance industry should eat itself up, and the world will be better for it.
I hope it does tank as caliphman predicts! chemp predicted something similar awhile back.
FOXtards I know, left the stock market awhile ago, to buy gold, so they have gold and guns in their basements. Ironically, they are like in their 80s. I jest, to put me in their wills all the time, becuz truth is best said in jest. 😉
I just viewed FiveThirtyEight charts on the Electoral College chance of winning in the June 1 – September 1 date range. Here are the numbers for what it is worth:
6/1 Biden chance 70% Trump chance 30%
6/28 Biden chance 79% Trump chance 21%
9/1 Biden chance 69% Trump chance 31%
If done well those can be accurate in the following sense. Take a coin scientifically designed to land face up Biden with 70% probability and Trump with 30% chance probability. On a single throw it can indeed land Trump face up. In fact, even a 90% Biden-10% Trump coin can land in that single throw with Trump face up.
What I am trying to say in my posts, I suppose, is that we may not really be successful in arguing what the result of the US Election on November 3 will be, although we can present plausible reasons one way or the other (the other side may not be convinced though, hehe). Perhaps more productive, individually, is the reason we give why One Win over The Other is good for the Philippines in the case of Filipinos, and good for both the US and the Philippines for other contributors here whose hearts beat for both countries. In my case, it is also for both countries because what happens in the US will ultimately matter to the World. My close relatives though living outside of the US are affected by the results of the election in the US.
Yes, it’s illusive. We might argue that Trump is good for the Philippines because he’s sent ships and planes here to push China back. Unless it is all just an election ploy.
And as brown people, how can a white supremicist pay dividends for us?
Biden is unknown until he states a policy, and even then ‘ifs’ get attached.
I keep going back to character and values as a basis for my vote. Not the individual policies which can go either way.
I imagine that is probably along the lines our dear departed edgar lores will write on the conversation. Which is an important point as the planet heads towards some climate change catastrophe — of which the US is being given examples lately — compounded by more viral pandemics to come, not to mention a nuclear disaster.
Joe, regarding character:
Joe Biden vis-a-vis Tara Reade
Where would you look for facts?
Wikipedia helped me wity my curiosity.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Biden_sexual_assault_allegation#:~:text=In%20March%202020%2C%20Tara%20Reade,assistant%20in%20his%20Senate%20office.
@Karl,
How is this – in comparison to the Wikipedia article?:
http://j.mp/i7-reade-1
Excerpt:
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RUSH: This is the most incredible thing. I had an email exchange going back and forth today with my friend Victor Davis Hanson. Victor Davis Hanson was on Tucker, Tucker Carlson last night. And he pointed out that the #MeToo movement ended the moment it happened to Joe Biden. The moment that a prominent leftist progressive is impacted, it’s over. And that was the day Tara Reade stopped being believed.
And his point was, I was clarifying, “Did I hear you right?” And he wrote back to me. He said, “Rush, it’s even better than that.” He said, “How about when Mr. Woke is a victim of a home invasion and he calls 911 and gets a busy signal? That’s when this defund the police movement’s gonna end.” That’s the exact — do you know Victor Davis Hanson? Were you talking to him today? Because that’s the example you just used here, Gerard.
CALLER: I was not, but pretty high respect because he’s a smart thinker like you are. And I was just doing the critical thinking like you’ve always taught in terms of how these movements are started but, more importantly, how they’ve ended up. And it just kind of popped into my brain that usually it happens when there’s hypocrisy or something occurs and they’re called out.
RUSH: You’re absolutely right. I think, though, there might be some caveats here. But here’s the general theory, folks. Last night Victor Davis Hanson on Tucker Carlson said the #MeToo movement ended the moment it reached Joe Biden. And it wasn’t Biden, it was the fact that Biden’s a Democrat nominee, the presumed nominee. It’s like emails being illegal, illegal servers, once it reached Hillary Clinton, oops, no crime here, because we can’t find intent. Remember Comey’s press conference.
-x
Thanks for that.
You really follow Rush Limbaugh.
End of me too? (MTM)
Pandering to BLM?
Two things strike me. One, people are reading less in-depth such that skim and snip is the methodology and discourse has given way to links, and 2) Edgar Lores was masterful at keeping the discussion high-minded. I miss him greatly and don’t wish to continue discussion in the tabloidian fashion where points are scored rather than knowledge shared.
Thank you to all.
Stay safe.
Wear your mask over your nose.