The tipping of the Philippines to China

Analysis and Opinion

By Joe America

The Philippines is tipping to China. I can feel it in my bones, or see it in the tea leaves, or divine it from the conjunction of the planets.

  • The discovery of about 200 ships at Whitson (Julian Felipe) Reef was a marker in the water, a statement by China that the Philippines is in play. Protests have been lodged and the boats have been moved around. But not out.
  • The vaccine situation in the Philippines remains dire. Many people think the Pfizer availability was intentionally dropped to allow Chinese vaccines to have prominence, and after a donation of about 500,000 doses, the Philippines purchased 1 million doses of Sinovac. Clearly, Chinese vaccines were given priority.
  • Bong Go remains the President’s closest adviser. He is a member of the Chinese crony business ring run by Dennis Uy and interfacing with Michael Yang in Beijing. Davao remains the main hub of travel between China and the Philippines.
  • ABS-CBN agreed to run a China-backed ‘news’ program promoting China’s belt and road initiative. Belt and Road is imperialism at its finest as China purchases entry into, and power over, other nations.
  • Oligarchs in the Philippines are primarily Chinese-Filipino. They operate as Filipino nationalists, in the main, but the ABS-CBN case suggests a tipping to China is possible.
  • Dennis Uy, a new oligarch, operates on China’s side of the loyalty line, partnering with China government’s China Telecom and other mainland investors. He is currently under stress from the pandemic, but we can expect to see him return to acquisitions when it’s over. Powered by China.
  • Mining and farming companies across the nation sell product to China. They are more loyal to their customers than to the Filipinos residing on the land they want.
  • Many suspect China funded President Duterte’s election in 2016 and will spend big to control the 2022 elections.

China is gaining control of government, commercial enterprise, and propaganda outlets. This is not accidental, driven by fate or Filipinos. The pandemic has cut off active street protest, not that outrage is even noticeable beyond the educated pro-democracy elite. It is largely an uninformed and compliant citizenry boxed in by thuggish tagging and killings by the Administration’s armed forces and police.

What can stop the relentless push of China into the Philippine power framework? (1) War between China and the US, or (2) a tilt of ever-fluid Filipino senators, agency heads, mayors, and oligarchs to a ‘new nationalism’. My famous bookie Sal places the odds of both at less than 20%.

My son is learning Mandarin.

Comments
182 Responses to “The tipping of the Philippines to China”
  1. Lil says:

    lol. old man is waving his vaccine slot to look like a hero to dutertards
    but he’s actually waiting for Pfizer or Moderna. lol
    and you thought he was actually going to take his Master’s vaccine in front of millions of Pinoys.

    • kasambahay says:

      hi, lil, surrounded by too many dutertards, the old tatay is becoming one of them. not allowed to hold the 1st vaccine arrival longer aloft, vaccine was taken from him before he could contaminate it and put right back in its box.

      old tatay had wanted to go to china kuno to personally thank xi, ay hindi pala. the chinese came in droves instead, in their 200 plus boats.

      • kasambahay says:

        few days ago, his daughter sara went to singapore for health reason kuno. if she went there to buy vaccine for her father and beat the rush . . . my lips are sealed.

    • It will be allies against axis based on the US slap-down of Russia today.

      • Karl Garcia says:

        Sanctions to the max.

        • kasambahay says:

          it has been reported recently po that 120 presidential guards got covid infected. if they’d been priorly vaccinated with the chinese vaccine, just so duterte can be protected, I hope both psg and doh are forthcoming with data. if there is mix and match vaccines to be done, least there is data to evaluate and compare, how workable the mix and match can be.

          even roque got covid infected and readily got himself a bed at pgh. I dont begrudged roque a hospital bed as all those that needed urgent hospitalization ought to have a bed.

          I think, people’s anger should be directed at both doh and the govt for not having anticipated the high demand for hospital beds and providing the funds needed, and not at a patient who only wanted what is best for themselves.

          roque might be spox, but as patient, he deserves the care given.

          • Karl Garcia says:

            Some of those who got the jab tested positive again? Even those vaccines with efficacy rate of 90+ can still have fatalities much more a 50. Percent efficacy rate.

            • The reported fatalities among those vaccinated with Pfizer are something around 50 out of many millions, less than a percent of a percent of a percent or so, see NHerrera’s computation on Twitter, out of 40K who might have died otherwise.

              As for the PSG, so many still getting infected if all were vaccinated seems unlikely even with a not so effective vaccine. Either they were never vaccinated or aren’t positive. With a government that has lied so much both of the two are not just possible but probable.

              Contrast to Harry Roque today was Angela Merkel taking her first jab of AstraZeneca when it was her turn according to official priorities. That is what is called fairness.

              • How almost completely vaccinated Israel is pushing cases down:

              • Karl Garcia says:

                Nherrera should drop by and post his presentation.
                I am apalled by the propaganda machinations.
                If kasambahay is showing compassion to Roque, yeah right it is not his fault if there is favoritism and palakasan

              • Karl Garcia says:

                We have had the longest ineffective lockdown in this earth. looking strict is not being strict.

              • kasambahay says:

                now that roque knows how it is to be covid sick and how important prompt medical attention is, it is hoped he will be more circumspect and kinder to others.

              • Karl Garcia says:

                Roque used the room reserved for the president per Garin.

              • Karl Garcia says:

                NHerrera’s tweet

            • kasambahay says:

              ah, roque has seemingly dodged covid bullet and is now back in the land of the living, now he can take a punch, lol! I’m preparing my left hook.

              anyhow, I dont think garin is that agrabyado vs roque, else garin would have marched into pgh, rip ventilator off roque’s face and drag roque out of bed, lol!

              and if garin is really that concerned, she ought to look closer to home. her fellow congresistas are taking ivermectin as prophylalxis contra covid, to make them covid proof kuno. even senator sotto is into ivermectin as well and reported no ill health, safe kuno yang ivermectin, sabi.

              as doctor, garin ought to tell fellow congresistas to seek medical advice before taking invermectin. most likely, doctor would have told them to be on the safe side and have their full blood studies (blood test) done. have baseline data, that all their organs such as liver and kidneys are functioning normally pre-ivermectin. after about 6mos, to have the blood test done again, the results compared to baseline date. if there are signs of diminishing liver or kidney function, they’d be mad to continue taking ivermectin.

              but if they still continue on taking ivermectin, may informed decision sila and know what they are up against.

              • kasambahay says:

                susmaryosep! slippery slope has begun in dr eric domingo of fda already giving compassionate permit to three hospitals for them to use ivermectin on covid patients. my friend are asking are the hospitals perhaps veterinary hospitals and their patients are animals on four legs? breakfast talk lang po namin, kaming mga bisaya are sobrang talkative, lol!

                hope lang po, the said hospitals are forthcoming and keep meticulous data, and not harming their patients on two legs. I would hate to see patients put on continuous ivermectin therapy having to undergo dialysis or kidney transplant months thereafter, their kidneys inadvertently ruined in the long run.

          • Seems the DOH ICU database is bad and especially not real-time.

            An ICU bed is for example only useful if there is staff to (wo)man it. Germany had to revise its ICU bed count because of chronic understaffing over here that has made Germany look for nurses abroad again for some years now, last time that was done was in the 1970s. And of course over here patients are moved by ambulance to another hospital, by helicopter or even in rare cases med evac plane, in case there is no more capacity in the hospital. Also of course there is a regular analysis of numbers being done. The relevant hospital associations over here are also already ringing the alarm, for instance Saxony is already now moving patients to neighboring states I read recently.

            I find how Philippine hospitals give families of patients the runaround awful. It is awful enough how government offices there do that to people, but that is not as existential. Although for ayuda it can be, people can get infected waiting in those hopeless lines.

            • Karl Garcia says:

              The opening of tourism has left out the hotels as emergency hospital like accomodations as options. Home care should be supported even where home quarantine is banned.

              • sonny says:

                Karl, in Chicago at the initial outbreak when stats were pointing to the surge in Covid cases State and City politicians, the Illinois National Guard, Army Corps of Engineers and the Private Sector synched counts of patients vs resources moved in lock-step manner to meet the anticipated crises. Chicago as one of the major venues of conventions in normal times seems to have a feel for real-time demand for living accommodations. Thus as the numbers materialized the accommodations both those in-place were geared up and the make-shift ones were swiftly set-up for triage. Thankfully the critical health-care personnel and support staff were big-heartedly braced for the demand. The public were as well-informed as possible by needed counts and indicators by the media.

              • Karl Garcia says:

                Thanks

              • kasambahay says:

                home care should be supported, I agree wholeheartedly. and not just supported but those on home care to be monitored as well. people kasi tend to tell what they think you want to hear. families stand up for each other and sometimes suppress the truth just so they wont look bad. monitor and visit them at random, see if they are really home and not out and about, going to church, namamasyal, visiting friends and relatives, and spreading covid.

                people dont like authorities like tanods, polis, etc, visiting them at home even for the purpose of health checks. it’s against human rights kuno, their loud outcry. ay naku, lost in translation. only those put on home care are to be monitored, visited and health checked at home. those not on home care ay hindi pinapakialaman. there is difference.

              • Karl Garcia says:

                Why persist in this mass recovery reporting then later also report that some recoveries were actually deaths.

              • Karl Garcia says:

                Home care. Is the way to go for those with enough room and bathrooms and enough money.

              • Karl Garcia says:

                The Department of Health (DOH) said 93 more people succumbed to the disease, including 20 who were previously reported as recovered, bringing the death toll to 16,141.

                Read more: https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1421698/hospital-declogging-begins-mild-cases-moved-to-isolation-facilities#ixzz6sklLH9vo
                Follow us: @inquirerdotnet on Twitter | inquirerdotnet on Facebook

              • Karl Garcia says:

                According to Health Undersecretary Leopoldo Vega, about 96 percent of the total COVID-19 cases are mild to moderate, with high chances of these patients recovering from the disease.
                He said severe cases needed proper clinical management at the hospitals, while mild and moderate cases could be managed in isolation facilities or at home.

                Read more: https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1421698/hospital-declogging-begins-mild-cases-moved-to-isolation-facilities#ixzz6skm07874
                Follow us: @inquirerdotnet on Twitter | inquirerdotnet on Facebook

              • kasambahay says:

                ganyan kalupit yang covid, those that recovered from the it can still be re-infected.

                mild to moderate cases dont always lead to full time recovery, there are times po when mild to mod cases exacerbate to become full blown covid and those around them are in danger.

              • Karl Garcia says:

                Again, I request them to hold tourism, to free up hotels. No one likes the current quarantine facilities, some escape.

              • Karl Garcia says:

                But it still offers hope.

                https://www.cnnphilippines.com/news/2021/4/23/Healthcare-firm-offers-home-services-for-patients.html

                Bottomline: those mass recovery numbers are useless if the emergency rooms are still full.

  2. Two things one could out together here:

    1) MLQ3 says that most Filipinos gravitate towards the powerful.

    http://www.quezon.ph/2008/05/29/malakas-at-mahina/

    Think of this as working from the barangay level to Congress supermajorities to internationally. 1594 it was to Felipe II, 1899 it was to USA, 1942 it was to Japan and 1944 back again to the West. Exceptions prove the rule I guess.

    2) Tiglao is crazy but he might be saying what some Filipino powerful think.

    https://rigobertotiglao.com/2020/10/14/us-has-become-a-failed-state-irrelevant-now-to-the-philippines/

    OK this was when Trump’s USA looked disastrous and Duterte for all we know really hoped for Sinovac by December.

    (Humabon at least tested his new potential patron Magellan as to whether he could deliver, so one could say he dealt in the same way as many a Filipino leader since time immemorial, but smarter even by amoral standards)

    • It shows Tiglao is crazy, goes with the near-term winners, does not grasp the see-saw vagaries of democracy, and will become instrumental as an agent of China’s propaganda.

      • ABS-CBN cancelled their China-sponsored ‘news’ show today after a blast of protest. My bookie Sal says the “nationalism” solution is now 33% probability.

        • I am finding the present Twitter discussions especially those around the Chinoys @mrsunlawyer and @easy_jonathan very interesting. These are Chinoys who still speak some form of Chinese, usually the southern Chinese dialect Hokkien. They therefore found the focus on Mandarin by that “news” show a bit inappropriate to say the least. Jonathan Sy wrote about how different and more cosmopolitan the Southern Chinese identity is, more businessmen whereas Communist bureaucrats often are Northerners. Once he also wrote that the Northern transliteration of his name would be Xi not Sy.

          What is also interesting about Chinoy identity is that most are Hokkien, some say this made them just another Filipino tribe. Also those like Xiao Chua whose Chinese ancestors came in the 19th century usually are mixed as Chinese traders came alone and married locals. Those who came in the 20th century are less mixed, some still don’t like their children to marry locals. One Chinay from Cebu (who still speaks Hokkien) mentioned on Twitter how mad she was when some distant relatives looked at her strangely when she told them her father was mixed, I think the word is “hoshia”. Anyhow the world of Chinoys is less secretive today than it was in my impression in the 1970s.

          • Yes, agree, it is enlightening to get those perspectives.

          • LCPL_X says:

            I don’t wanna sound racist, but Filipino (Malay look) and Chinese (Han look) look similar to me over there, I mean I know like in Singapore there’s Malay, Chinese and Indian, and the 3 tend to be separated. its obvious.

            But in the Philippines pure Han or pure Malay look was to me at least my impression seen the same by locals.

            What made Filipinos differentiate was more the height, so if you’re pure Han look big wow, you’re a dime a dozen, but add the height aspect, you’re suddenly Chinese mestizo;

            Then there’s the actual Spanish mestizos who are apparently still plentiful there, then of course the half European (or other exotic mixes).

            In my experience, lightness of skin (which is dependent on whether someone stays in the sun a lot or not), height, then actual mestizo standards. That’s what Filipinos noticed more.

            My point, in Singapore (and Malaysia/Indonesia) you can tell Chinese, thats Malay, and Indian.

            The Philippines was more melded like the stuff that kept the 3 ethnicities Singapore separate didn’t play a role in the Philippines. Even the term Chinoy, I ‘m not familiar with in my time there, so I gotta feeling the concept of Chinoy is also obsolete.

            So the notion of Filipino as a stand alone identity has caught on.

            I seriously doubt the Chinese can make any propagandizing Chinoy or Chinese-Filipino identity. They are better off sending Chinese boy band pop stars there, like what Korea did. Or Anime/Manga.

            But attempting to racialize Filipinos like in Singapore, not gonna happen in the Philippines. I just don’t see it, and most of my expertise comes from my time on Mango Ave.

            • Yep, in Singapore and Malaysia the ethnic identities are more distinct.

              Rizal whose great-grandfather was named Domingo Lam Co was the first to define Filipino as the identity for all, while the Spaniards still heavily distinguished.

              Land papers from the 19th century (I have some from our folks) still distinguished and had the racist terms indio, mestizo, chino etc after the given name.

              Filipinos with Chinese ancestors who came in the 19th century have no memory of the old country anymore and yes they are mixed.

              In the Philippines you will do have Chinese-Filipinos whose grandparents came sometime after WW2 and the upheavals in China. These families tried to stay “pure” as the old folks still wanted to go back “home” when things got better there, or to Taiwan.

              Marcos did two things that heavily influence how this group is now:

              1) mass naturalization back in 1975

              2) Chinese schools were forced to teach in English and to teach Filipino. Chinese as a foreign language only not as main medium of instruction.

              Nowadays even Chinoys who still speak some Hokkien or a bit of school Mandarin speak Filipino and English at home. Some code-switch between Filipino, English and Hokkien.

              Prof. Vicente Rafael BTW has written in his book “Motherless Tongues” about how Manila street slang has Spanish and Hokkien words in it, and how he learned his first bad words in Hokkien from Chinoy neighbors. Also part of the Filipino mix.

            • chemrock says:

              @ Lance
              “in Singapore (and Malaysia/Indonesia) you can tell Chinese, thats Malays…”

              Your observation is true. And I think the answer lies in religion. The Malayans in Malaysia and Indonesia are preodminantly Muslims. Islam tends to be non-inclusive so the social divide is very distinct, very unlike Filipinos who are predominantly Christians.

              Chinese is not homogeneous like the Japanese or Koreans. The Hans are actually the southerners who were eminent during the Han Dynasty. My ancestral family name Liu came from the line of Han emperors. Han Dynasty was the 2nd dynasty of China that was founded in 201 BC. It was the golden age of Chinese civilisation.

              Again, as you can see, Islam has a non-inclusive problem. All the different races of Chinese melted into Hans. Even souther Mongolians and Manchurians (Ching Dynasty) all melted into Hans. But the Uyghurs remain distinct as they are predominantly Muslims.

              • LCPL_X says:

                Thanks, chemp… I never thought of that angle. Though I’m aware that Islam goes from Atlantic to Pacific, and includes all races at this point, except Native Americans or Arctic peoples maybe to include Siberia.

                But what s the mechanism that’s making the Chinese-Filpinos meld into the Malay Filipinos? just inter breeding, or Hokkien/Taiwan natives is just so like Austronesians to begin with.

                Then again this type of living arrangement would i think promote inclusivity,

                Because for sure, you can see Chinese from Malaysia and Indonesia, and Singapore, resist the urge to meld with Malays, but not in the Philippines. A lot more interbreeding in the Philippines, hence i guess more fun.

            • LCPL_X says:

              I would also include that there are also more Chinese Moros than say in Indonesia and Malaysia, chemp.

              Maybe Ireneo can comment on this, but I saw more Chinese Moros with prominent status in Philippines, some still carrying Chinese names, like Lim, Tan, etc.

              And to Wil’s matriarchy (there is no true matriarchy by the way as studied by anthropologists, there’s always a brother, or uncle, or father from her line directing, thus bilineal is more approriate), a bunch of these familys have women as representatives,

              So Islam patriarchy is out the window also.

              But yeah, this only occurs in the Philippines i’ve noticed. or more prevalent there.

          • kasambahay says:

            chinay from cebu must be lucky. her being of mixed breed, she must have the much sought after double lidded eyes without going under the knife. chinese, japanese and korean girls are crazy about double lidded eyes and often undergo the painful cosmetic surgery.

            it’s weird how some of my chinese acquaintances from college come closer to look me over, often lingering to see my eyes. it’s natural, I told them, I got double lidded eyes at birth.

            • LCPL_X says:

              “The epicanthic fold is often associated with greater levels of fat deposition around the eyeball, a feature most accentuated in native North Siberian, Aleut and Inuit populations. The adipose tissue is thought to provide greater insulation for the eye and sinuses from the effects of cold, especially from freezing winds, and to represent an adaptation to cold climates. It has also been postulated that the fold itself may provide a level of protection from snow blindness. Though its appearance in peoples of Southeast Asia can be linked to possible descent from cold-adapted ancestors, its occurrence in various African peoples precludes a cold-adaptive explanation for it appearing in the latter groups. The epicanthic fold found in some African people has been tentatively linked to protection for the eye from the high levels of ultraviolet light found in desert and semi-desert areas.”
              https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epicanthic_fold

              kasambahay, Bushmen in southern Africa also carry the above genes you’ve described.

              • kasambahay says:

                salamat po. I noticed president xi of china has mono lidded eyes, his eyes are droopy and hooded like a cobra. as xi grows older still, he’ll look like a dog with a hangover.

                if xi is vain like putin, he’ll go under the knife and have the excess skin from the folds of his eyelids trimmed. putin seems in good shape and like to show off like the ancient egyptian pharaohs showing their fitness to rule at seb festivals. putin is showy as well, riding bare back on horses and showing his hairless torso, swimming in icy waters and coming up in skimpy swimming trunk ala james bond. then putin is martial artist bruce lee, doing tae kwon do and bringing down opponents. compared to the rest of the world’s leaders, putin seems to be the shortest, hence his need maybe to appear fitter, shorter in stature but stellar in wealth, fitness and reputation.

                president xi’s wife, the opera singer madam xi, has double lidded eyes and looks youthful.

              • LCPL_X says:

                I never even really noticed, kb. but you’re right!

        • LCPL_X says:

          Trump wanted out of forever wars, Biden thought this was good policy also, now we’re finally out… but I’m sure the military-industrial complex will attempt to pull the US back in again, profiteering makes good profit.

          So in a way Tiglao is correct, Trump’s MAGA or America First, is the new policy. I don’t agree with him that the US is a failed state, but for sure the US will not be over extending any time soon. Americans can stomach patrols thru the South China sea,

          but seriously doubt we’ll want to jump into another forever war.

          I don’t think China wants to either, which means all this is all still at the diplomatic level, as evidenced by what Teddy Locsin did. So everything is up for negotiation, Joe’s ABS-CBN odds going up, stuff like that.

          Propaganda can be recountered. Filipinos use these two Spanish words a lot, cuentada and maniobra very much like Ireneo’s exposition of the word “discarte”, but where “discarte” is more like checkers or the card game Go Fish, the

          2 words i’ve italicized are chess/go level thinking. Filipinos need to stop thinking in terms of “discarte”, shallow short term. I gotta getz minez.

          Think more in terms of calculus and manuever. In negotiations , karl, not expensive war machines. Its a mindset Teddy Locsin has, better that all Filipinos start thinking in these terms.

          • Yes, China wants to conquer the world without war, as they are doing with the Philippines. They are now embarked on building a set of international laws that will allow them to exert pressure and punishment for wrongdoings in other lands. Watch for an enduring global battle of legal power-pushing. I also read an article that says they have three ports in Australia they seek to control. Brisbane was one, RIP Edgar. So it will not be possible for yellows to escape to anywhere, soon.

            • LCPL_X says:

              Well, this is kinda what world powers do, Joe. They extend, they expand. Dole and Del Monte are in the Philippines. Don’t forget Subic and Clark. Commerce and military.

              I’m surprised Australia would allow them access; but 3rd world nations I can totally see getting bought out by China. Africa and South America, the Chinese are there too.

              Athens did exactly the same thing which pissed Sparta off; but remember England and the US were in that same exact position. but it seems China has learnt from us,

              they use holdings and secret companies. So no need to actually colonize. Hands off, kinda better it seems.

              But my point still stands, all this can still be negotiated. I don’t think theres a Sparta right now, who’ll want to do anything about China’s Athenian plays. But they do got the money.

              • A lot of Greek colonies in Southern Italy were Spartan, though some were Athenian or Corinthian: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magna_Graecia

                Sicily was a patchwork of Greek and Phoenician/Carthaginian colonial towns.

                Contrast too the difference between Portuguese colonialism in Asia (trading posts not entire territories) versus Spanish style. Dutch a bit more territorial, English totally territorial.

                But don’t underestimate hearts and minds (and souls) in that equation.

                Islam spread all the way to Indonesia. Spain used Catholicism and was just as fervent about it as its former Moorish overlords were about Islam. UK and US have trained elites (the UK in India and elsewhere, the US in the Philippines) in their mode of thinking. Romans Latinized what is now Northern Italy, Southern France and the Iberian Peninsula – Romania is a special case as it was populated by Roman settlers. England managed to all but erase Gaelic in Cornwall, Scotland and Ireland – they all speak English today.

          • Well, Locsin is a member of the old Filipino elite. In fact very representative – a member of a landowner family with both Spanish and Chinese ancestry, old school in an annoying way when he calls some Filipinos “stupid natives”.

            But for all their faults the old “creole” (Nick Joaquin’s term) Filipino elites (mestizos of all shades plus Westernized “natives”) were as Nick Joaquin wrote the builders of the Filipino nation, thus more strategic than national villagers like President Duterte or Manny Pacquiao. Partly Chinoy Aguinaldo was an asshole, but he did try to build a navy as Karl mentioned, and Karl’s source for that also mentioned that he thought of securing major trading ports with it.

            Another article by a military strategist Karl quoted mentioned strategic thinking as important, while Joe has mentioned many Filipinos lack that. President Aquino also had strategic thinking, building alliances across the region like with Japan.

            As for long-term, the USA always has had phases of going back into itself (it also did after Wilson built the League of Nations, only coming back to help Europe after Pearl Harbor, even WW1 it only joined in 1916) and returning into the international scene.

            Long-term that has probably been good for American power as it avoids the classic trap great powers fall into after a while – over-extension. Romans, British, Soviets went there. Meaning it IS foolish to assume America will just fade away, “I shall return” more likely.

            As for long-term survival of powers, the lack of inclusiveness and at least theoretical equality will mean China will not be able to hold that long. Compare how more inclusive powers like Rome and Britain, yes also the US with its influence on global culture have fared against empires that acted overtly discriminatory like Germany or Russia. Spain is a mixed bag as it tolerated native languages in the Americas until 1770, when the order came to Hispanize. They lost most of those colonies not too long after that. Ottoman Turkey admitted people from all parts of Empire into its civil service, probably also one thing which kept that empire going on longer than it normally should have. China so obviously looks down on others that it may not win a lot of loyalty in the long run.

            What that all means for long term maniobra is clear I think. How exactly the Philippines plays ball in such a situation may be situational but the long-term perspective is key. Not short-term and transactional like Humabon, as I already wrote in a previous article.

    • sonny says:

      “…Now be honest: If no vaccine after all is invented and the pandemic becomes worse than the Spanish flu pandem ic that killed more than 100 million, which country would you prefer to live in – the US or China? ”

      I think I’ll throw up.

      • kasambahay says:

        ahem, if it was me, I’ll do what the grave robbers did in the middle ages. they survived the black plague and pillaged the graves of the buried rich, stole their buried worldly goods and possessions, jewels, heirlooms, etc. the robbers were reportedly using medicinal herbs on their persons: the unguents and oils that kills o stupefy germs and diseases. walking among the infected and badly decomposed bodies of the dead and looting. the robbers were probly initiates of necromancers and not scared of the dead having studied them fully.

        I’d probly stay in me well stocked bunker deep under the ground and wait out the cataclysm. staying put and not going to china o estados unidos.

      • sonny says:

        In the vicinity of RT!

    • kasambahay says:

      my interpretation of roque’s private diplomacy is: a diplomacy when you’re not having a diplomacy.

      instead, duterte was seen on a quad bike that did not go anywhere, safer on 4wheels instead of two wheels. bong go always around in case duterte lost his balance and fell.

      duterte also jogging just like makoy was, once jogging on tv to show the nation makoy is still among the living.

      private diplomacy, too private there is nothing to report. nothing to celebrate, none to be proud of.

  3. Wilfredo G. Villanueva says:

    Colonialism by propinquity. Alaska used to be Russia’s, some southern U.S. states used to be Mexico’s. But wait. Taiwan stands out as separate from the mainland, valorously. The Philippines, too, has natural barriers against Chinese hegemony, such as:

    Language;
    Culture;
    Religion;
    Treatment of women (we’re matriarchal);
    Treatment of dogs;
    Mutual animosity.

    Oh, they can grab the reins of power, but can they stay in the saddle?

    When the educated middle-class has been decimated by pogrom, a new resistance will take shape naturally. I’m glad to be a Filipino. Suplado tayo. Mapang-api tayo, mapang-mata. A new Philippines will be born, birthed by new Filipinos who have learned their lesson. Perhaps this era of Chinese domination is precisely what the doctor ordered. Out of the crucible, we will rise. Patriotism is never free, never bloodless. Check our history.

    • The educated NCR+ middle class is already now being decimated by Covid.

      And the hopes of some who still hope to be relatively high up in a Chinese-run era might be dashed, much like hopes of some Filipinos who saw the Japanese in 1942 as an Asian alternative to the Western way were dashed when Japanese troops slapped Filipinos. Japan today is a bit different but Mainland China still has a clear superiority complex that will sooner or later collide with a very reliable element of Filipino culture, Filipino pride.

      As for the cultural contrasts, fully agree. The patriarchal/matriarchal aspect is the strongest. The believer/unbeliever one I would add as well. The Chinese empire which Mainland China still basically is acts like the old Roman Empire towards believers. There was a time when it resisted Buddhism and watered it down. It went against Nestorian Christians and barely tolerated Muslims. Many Chinese in Taiwan etc. are Christians and will not want to be under a regime that is based on absolute, nearly Pharaonic rule.

  4. Karl Garcia says:

    Vaccine diplomacy. Paraguay joins others in ditching Taiwan for China’s vaccines.

    • Karl Garcia says:

      I thought Imgot the wrong link, but it is a story within a story.

      • Karl Garcia says:

        Latin America must rethink their vaccine strategy and pivot to China.

        https://businessmirror.com.ph/2021/04/17/are-chinas-covid-shots-less-effective-experts-size-up-sinovac/

        • Karl Garcia says:

          Vaccine Diplomacy

          One can’t help feeling resentful when one thinks about it. Here we are today, having to make do with a vaccine whose reported efficacy is the lowest among all vaccines, prodded only by the thought that “the best vaccine is the one that is available.” In a desperate situation, this mantra has become more persuasive. But, we should not forget how we got to this dismal situation. The Duterte administration preferred a Chinese vaccine from the very beginning, not for scientific reasons, but because China had supposedly given its word that, being a friend, the Philippines would be at the top of its priority list the moment a vaccine for COVID-19 becomes available. President Duterte himself takes every opportunity to praise Chinese biotechnology, seeing it as an affirmation of his avowed foreign policy pivot to China (and Russia)—away from the West, particularly the United States and Europe.

          Read more: https://opinion.inquirer.net/139418/vaccine-diplomacy#ixzz6sL3EvfEw
          Follow us: @inquirerdotnet on Twitter | inquirerdotnet on Facebook

          • kasambahay says:

            there is high probability po that what china did to our country, china will do same to paraguay. the promised vaccines are just promises, like the build build build that barely comes to fruition. the promised high speed railway in mindanaw, well, buti pa ang terrorist rebels, they followed up on promises and do as promised.

            china promises the world many things, many countries taken for built and road initiatives, and china deliver so little. while many countries got lulled including our own, china gotten time to work and pursue its ambition unchecked and unhindered.

            our country signed on the dotted line and since china did not deliver, we should consider the agreement null and void. duterte’s best and brightest lawyers should see to it.

  5. “Who discovered China?” “Chiara Zambrano, just beside Palawan.”

  6. Filipino nationalists like M.H. Del Pilar and Mariano Ponce once had links to other Asian democratic movements in their time.

    I can imagine how betrayed some Filipinos felt by Japan back in 1942.

    • What Bonifacio had tried to do in 1898, get Japanese support, Ponce got.

      Surprised about this, first time I read about it. But the ship with arms sunk.

    • Karl Garcia says:

      Excerpts.

      THE anger and frustration among Filipinos over China’s blatant military incursions in Julian Felipe Reef in the West Philippine Sea have been flooding the pages of Facebook for more than a month.

      The latest sentiment analysis of BluePrint.PH from 11 March to 11 April 2021 showed increased negative emotions of Filipinos over the issue of territorial disputes on West Philippine Sea.

      The Facebook post of media firm ABS-CBN on April 9, 2021: “TINGNAN: Namataan ang ilang daang fishing vessel sa Julian Felipe Reef sa West Philippine Sea [LOOK: Hundreds of fishing vessels were spotted at Julian Felipe Reef in the West Philippine Sea],” had the highest engagement with 30,715 reactions, of which 55 percent are angry.

      The post coincided with the “Araw ng Kagitingan” (Day of Valor) celebration on April 9.

      Another ABS-CBN post on the same day: “Obligado ang United States na tumulong sa Pilipinas sakaling atakihin ang mga barko at aircraft ng bansa sa West Philippine Sea, ayon sa US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty. Ito ang babala ni US State Department spokesman Ned Price kaugnay ng tila pagiging mas agresibo ng China sa pinag-aagawang teritoryo [The US is obliged to help the Philippines if any of its ships or aircraft are attacked in the West Philippine Sea, under the MDT. This was stated by US State Department spokesman Ned Price in connection with China’s aggressive moves in disputed territory],” earned the second highest engagement score of 14, 245, with 69 percent “likes.”

      BluePrint.PH sentiment analysis also showed strong frustrations over what was perceived as government inaction on China’s violations of the Philippines’s rights to its exclusive economic zone, based on comments in the top two posts.

      The comment, “Nakakahiya. Ibang bansa pa nagtatanggol sa atin kaysa sa mga lider ng Pilipinas [It’s a shame, that it takes other nations to defend our rights (over West Philippine Sea) instead of our leaders]” has the most number of “likes” at 727.

      Another comment: “Now, the Commemoration of the Day of Valor, while Duterte flexes his strength for those who are weak, but for those as BIG and ferocious as China, he is a Kitten. Ironic!. Lesson learned, Presidency should have the highest standards,” earned the second highest number of “likes” at 703.

      Malacañang’s “no comment” reaction over Chinese vessels that chased the ABS-CBN crew earned the fourth highest engagement score with 46 percent “haha” and 36 percent “angry.”

  7. Karl Garcia says:

    Sometimes I feel guilty abiut my negative sentiments against China, but here is a study of how the world feels about China.

    https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2020/10/06/unfavorable-views-of-china-reach-historic-highs-in-many-countries/

    • LCPL_X says:

      karl,

      If you compared how China’s handling COVID19 vs. say High Speed rail, and comparatively with the US. It would be different.

      How China’s able to move its populace (cleanly) vs. the US which actually was leading in railways pre-WWII, but allowed car/oil to dismantle its railroads, now under Biden we’re trying to play catch up (and we don’t even have high speed).

      Reading that poll, I was thinking if COVID19 did begin in the US, we wouldn’t have contained it either. Sure maybe the US will be more transparent about it, but with Americans so averse to being locked down, or even wearing masks, we’d have shared it to the world to.

      Watch those videos about high speed rail, that I think is what’s going to slow down climate change, because the US is gearing up to do the same, with Biden’s funding of Amtrak.

      As for COVID19 , its here to stay, just like the flu. No use crying of spilt milk.

      • Karl Garcia says:

        Build build roponents should take heed.

        Massive infrastructure projects are almost always more expensive, complicated, and time-consuming than they seem at the outset—even with sufficient funding and unwavering political support. Most of the ARRA rail projects had neither.

        Writing in 2010, in a sweeping overview of what was planned in Mass Transit magazine, Peterson noted how much more money would need to come: “The network of high-speed corridors reflected in the map above could cost as much as $1 trillion to complete over the next several decades, particularly if it is pursued in the incremental manner described by the administration,” he wrote.

        The challenge was compounded in 2010 by midterm elections that sent many of Obama’s plans, including those for years of continued investment in high-speed rail, careening off course. The Republican party enjoyed a landmark victory—the greatest since 1948—in the House of Representatives, with a net gain of 63 seats. Republican governors displaced Democrats in 11 states. Many of the successful candidates were affiliated with the Tea Party movement—an informal grouping of anti-tax populists who ran on a platform of reduced government spending.

        Conservative antipathy toward rail, sometimes characterized as the “war on trains,” comes from many angles. On the one hand, there’s a simple reluctance among many to invest federal or state funds: Train lines are expensive to build, often require costly maintenance (or ongoing state subsidies), and can’t always deliver certain return on investment. Highways, by contrast, are almost always extremely well used, with an estimated federal cost of between 1 and 4 cents per driver, compared to the cost of 13 cent per rider for Amtrak.

        There are other objections, too. On a practical, political level, rail tends to benefit people living in cities, who do not tend to vote Republican. Others are more ideological: Certain conservatives, including the commentator George Will, see trains (and public transit more generally) as having the secondary goal of “diminishing Americans’ individualism in order to make them more amenable to collectivism.” Writing in Newsweek, Will applauds the theoretical freedom enabled by automobiles, which “go hither and yon, wherever and whenever the driver desires, without timetables,” Trains, meanwhile, requite “deference” to the will of the community and when it is most convenient for its members to travel—not to mention its financial support.

        • There are also European liberals who dislike trains as “collectivist”.

          • LCPL_X says:

            With MMT / Biden, that may now be all do-able. Micha can correct, but the Feds simply need to tax gas, and they get what they want which is more EV and expanded rails. I’m sure the interstate system will still be intact, but combustible engine is done.

            Still not near where China is now; but Amtrak plans is the most controversial in Biden’s infrastructure plan, which means gas/auto industries will pull no punches. But with California going full EV by 2030. I’m thinking Biden will get his way. MMT is the way.

      • Karl Garcia says:

        I will explode if I get the suggestion to relocate the fishermen or teach them other things to do.

          • LCPL_X says:

            Well, unlike Badjaos , karl… Zambales fishermen would be heritage, that is where they’ve fished for awhile. Maybe Palawan fishermen too were heritage, but those Muslim names just stood out for me, which allowed for other considerations, namely repatriation/financial aide.

            So unless we see Badjaos again in Zambales, repatriation/aide wouldn’t be approriate.

            But consider that fish has been declining in general, either because of over fishing and/or environmental issues. China would just be the icing on top of that cake of issues. Like how English and French fishermen fight over their catch between their seas.

            It’s more of an 8 billion world population issue really , than territorial waters, karl.

            China ‘s 1.5 Billion (i’m rounding here), compared to 108 Million for the Philippines, China’s gonna get theirs, it doesn’t help either that they are de facto the next super power. Remember Japan went into northern China for food/resources; Nazi Germany to Russia for the same. hence WWII.

            So again, my argument for the Badjaos was an internal domestic Filipino issue; the Zambales problem is just part of the bigger whole of geo politics… like I said, 12 years ago no one really bothered to raise a fuss about it, now China’s entrenched and with 1.5 billion mouths to feed ,

            invariably … THEY ARE GOING TO OVER FISH, they’ve run into the same problem in the East China sea, so they’ve dispatched their fisherman to their new stomping grounds, the South China sea.

            Either convince the Chinese to go vegetarian, or Filipinos to do so– given that its the Chinese with power right now, might be a good idea to look into rabbits and guinea pigs as a cheap, renewable (because they have lots of babies) option, like in South America.

            But I’ll post the question again, what is the fishing situation like in the Philippine Sea???

            • LCPL_X says:

              karl,

              Here’s another way to think about this, below is a early 1990s study about overfishing in Zambales… so waaay before China’s in the picture.

              http://www.cbcrm-rc.freeservers.com/CaseStudies/dizon.html

              The exploitation of marine resources is a critical issue plaguing the country, where approximately 85% of the total population lives in the coastal areas and 5% relies solely on fishing as their means of subsistence.

              Destruction of coral reef habitats and over fishing lead to declining fish catch. Floods and soil erosion due to heavy rains have caused extreme siltation and decrease in marine resources. Almost all parts of the country’s marine area have suffered from these problems.

              The small fishers are often blamed for the degraded state of the coastal areas, mainly because of their use of dynamite, poison and destructive fishing gear. A significant number of fishers from San Salvador, Masinloc, Zambales as an example, had once been engaged in illegal fishing methods. They used sodium cyanide and dynamite to catch fish with seemingly no concern for the long-term effects of the practice on the marine resources. The use of destructive fishing methods reached an alarming state when the fisheries showed significant sign of depletion.

              Illegal fishing by small fishers, at the scale it is conducted, is not the principal cause of depletion of nearshore fisheries. Rather, artisanal fishers resort to use of distinctive methods of fishing to cope with the loss of coastal productivity. Recent studies have shown that lack of adequate management of these rich natural resources led to over-exploitation and constant decline fish production, especially within the municipal waters. As a result, income of small fishers remain inadequate leading them to employ more efficient, even destructive fishing methods, such as blast fishing to increase their catch.

              The government’s ability to arrest the practice of illegal fishing has proven to be inadequate despite the existence of numerous fisheries and environmental laws, as well as bodies charged with enforcing these laws.

              _______________________________________________

              • Karl Garcia says:

                Argumentum ad absurdum.

              • LCPL_X says:

                Not really, karl

                These are two overfishing practices;

                1. China, Based on essentially numbers; and 2. that’s Philippines, based on lack or desire to care for the future. Bahala na.

                You see its also cultural. Chinese is basically forward thinking, IMHO, many people so get them food; Philippines, we have this forever, who cares typa attitude.

                All aspects worth considering, IMHO,karl.

                It goes back to this sentiment,

        • LCPL_X says:

          karl,

          First, I Googled overfishing 1990s Philippines; then overfishing 1980 Philippines,

          but this study is really detailed with stats and maps from the 1970s. This was a big issue since then apparently. But dynamite and chemical fishing I know about in general, just not familiar with the historical aspect of said practice. That there is connection with the China overfishing issues is a good counterfactual analysis to consider, karl.

          Best to always consider all angles of an argument , not get pigeon hole to just one causality. Time and space a very important part of counterfactuals.

          link here: http://pubs.iclarm.net/libinfo/Pdf/Pub%20SR76%204.pdf

          • Karl Garcia says:

            Two wrongs do not make it right. If you see a broken window and lots of unbroken ones do you throw stones at the unbroken ones?

            • LCPL_X says:

              Though I agree with the first sentence, karl. I don’t understand the second.

              The point here is that China’s overfishing is wrong; but Philippine overfishing is also wrong. All windows broken.

              Ireneo’s article is saying Zambales fishermen are saying Chinese fishermen are to blame but we

              have studies after studies since the 80s to 90s documenting Filipino fishermen already overfishing. Due to dynamite and chemical fishing.

              No matter which of the two country’s bad practices overfishing is there, that’s the fact, so and this is my point about relocation,

              even if China leaves miraculously , and Zambales fishermen are left alone, chances are based on those 80s-90s studies, you would still have them complaining about lack of fish.

              Either stop fishing or move elsewhere. But like Joe said solutions is beyond my pay grade, so just focus on Filipino overfishing.

              That’s the counterfactual here.

              • This article (2018) describes the tuna fishing industry, which is in peril because of “Market Two” fishing practices in the Philippines.

                https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/aug/23/they-are-taking-out-a-generation-of-tuna-overfishing-causes-crisis-in-philippines

              • LCPL_X says:

                That’s a good article, Joe.

                I’m just starting from scratch about this whole overfishing issue, but then started Googling California’s overfishing, and the problem here is more bureaucratic really about management, here is a good article:
                https://green.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/10/24/2-fisheries-collapsed-unnoticed-study-says/

                “However, many other fisheries have failed to follow this process — sometimes due to a lack of data, or in some cases, the data just simply were not used or considered,” he said. Dr. Quinn pointed out sport fisheries often have “limited money to do things like surveys.”

                While some fishery-independent data sets might be discarded if they prove irrelevant or inaccurate, Dr. Quinn said, alternate data are worth seeking out. “My belief is you try to use as much data as you possibly can,” he said.

                At the end of the day, Dr. Erisman hopes that the study will stimulates debate about how the bass stocks are assessed and managed. “Their management hasn’t changed since 1959,” he said. “Hopefully this sparks some kind of change.”

                But at some point, i think, to curb overfishing here we went to the Market One model (do away with Market Two), from there license each fisherman, fine/fee, so as to make fish expensive. Less fisherman, more expensive fish, you’ll appreciate fish more.

                With more justification for fisheries enforcement, more enforcement agencies;

                if you notice that article is essentially about contact tracing and testing, all data driven, ironically if you police your own fisheries, you’d end up policing China’s. So the solution is somewhere in enforcement of ocean/seas stewardship,

                And China as collectivist society seem to respond better to shortages and pollution, scaled up solutions. Like them going EV and high speed, similarly all President Xi has to do is tell his people to stop eating fish, like maybe a year or two, and you’ll have replenishment.

                But i’ll Google more on how California andthe Left coast did it. I gotta feeling same with the East Coast, just more protected areas and more enforcement. and plus data.

                So karl’s correct more Coast Guard enforcement but not really border patrols , but fishery and seas protection patrols. Then schools , gov’t entities, can focus on data collection.

                This is all very interesting.

  8. @sonny OT – found this excellent explanation of the difference between Classical Latin (as used in Netflix Barbarians) and the Eclessiastical Latin most of us learn, even with interesting nuances such a how Southern Italians still pronounce ending vowels like the Romans did back in the days while modern Romans no longer do, how final m and n sounds actually were more nasal in Classical Roman (someone once told me like in Portuguese) and the letter s was pronounced more like in Spanish. Even the scene in Barbarians where tribute is exacted is praised for how the cavalryman alternates between formal Latin when speaking to the “barbarians” and colloquial when speaking to another Roman military man.

    Same channel (the Sicilian who does it gives a lot of attention to historical detail, wow) about how Cortes defeated the Aztecs, around the same time Magellan was traveling and got killed. Gives an idea of the armies and the fighting of those days.

    • sonny says:

      PiE, I have given up on the spoken mode of classical Latin. The written mode is easier to follow in verse (The Aeneid, Medieval Ecclesiastic) and prose (The Gallic Wars, The Vulgate). (Note: I am not aware of Latin classical linguists practicing in the Philippines)

      • Karl Garcia says:

        In this blog it is De gustibus non disputandum except when it is of bad taste and just wrong.

      • If one just hears how different Shakespeare’s English sounded which isn’t comparatively that long ago, one can appreciate how long ago and how different Classical Latin was from the Latin languages and countless dialects of today..

        Even reading the Tagalog of the late 19th / early 20th century is hard, which is why the movie Heneral Luna is actually a compromise between modern usage and old terms, though I find the Cavite accent of Aguinaldo very well done by Mon Confiado. Of course the classic “na-galaw pa ba iyan” by Aguinaldo’s mother is a grammatic usage many in Manila don’t even know about nowadays, one has to be from Batangas or Cavite or have had some contact with them to know certain nuances of Tagalog only they have. BTW one od the last scenes from the movie Goyo which is the sequel to Heneral Luna is from 1935. Just an aside as one finds the times transitioning between a generation before and of course one already knows how the times barely 10 years later will be..

    • Karl Garcia says:

      The Portuguese, Dutch, British, Germans, Japanese, French all sailed away. China will also sail away.

      • One look at the map tells me that is not as likely as with the former.

        • Karl Garcia says:

          I hope they solve the gravity problem along with others in Mars and move there.

          • China is planning a permanent moon base together with Russia.

            Hope the nine-dash line is not then extended into three dimensions.

            • Karl Garcia says:

              Soon they will claim the solar system. The nine planet line.

              • LCPL_X says:

                https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Outer_Space_Treaty

                Fellas, that would be the governing treaty, but the test like Teddy Locsin keeps on hammering is tradition leads to laws.

                In the end, if you guys have watch The Martian with Matt Damon, UNCLOS is still the law.

                So essentially it is in fact the same as the South China sea strategy, go there, stake claim, then build tradition of use and staying there.

                But i think the Moon will simply be like Antartica, nothing really to do there, but as spring board to Asteroid belt and Mars perfect, China will want to lay claim over where ice/water is found on the Moon.

                here,

                Article V: “States Parties to the Treaty shall regard astronauts as envoys of mankind in outer space and shall render to them all possible assistance in the event of accident, distress, or emergency landing on the territory of another State Party or on the high seas….In carrying on activities in outer space and on celestial bodies, the astronauts of one State Party shall render all possible assistance to the astronauts of other States Parties….”

                Article VIII: “A State Party to the Treaty on whose registry an object launched into outer space is carried shall retain jurisdiction and control over such object, and over any personnel thereof, while in outer space or on a celestial body….”

                Article XII: “All stations, installations, equipment and space vehicles on the moon and other celestial bodies shall be open to representatives of other States Parties to the Treaty on a basis of reciprocity….”

                (thus, all laws and traditions are already obsolete)

              • Karl Garcia says:

                Talk to your hand.

              • Off-topic, but very interesting. https://www.cpf.navy.mil/news.aspx/140158

                I sent you a video on twitter. I don’t know how to get it here.

              • Karl Garcia says:

                Saw it just now Thanks!Cool, nice to have.

              • LCPL_X says:

                The kicker when in comes to drones and state-to-state violence, especially peer-to-peer states, is the Rules of Engagement. Since both China and the US can absorb losses of drones, some would even say they’ll encourage it for profit, this all should lead to a mutual understanding of where lines are drawn,

                like the Mutually Assured Destruction, but more malleable because its drones and not nukes.

                So picture Robot Wars games , but with both countries also trying to hack and remotely destroy each others drones like thru lasers and satellites. All this “R&D” will only result in better tech, for when we all end up in the Moon again and in Mars.

                With the first Mars drone helicopter flying, I’m thinking China is trying to hack it, orjust the mere attempt, to crash it on its mother rover. Just to make a point.

                Just like Robot Wars you get better tech.

                I still maintain that killing humans with robots is counter productive; but if you factor in space travel and exploration and exploitation of space resources, these drones actually can stand for more improvements. thus all good all around, for all.

                It all leads to Asimov’s FOUNDATION trilogy. rendering all territorial disputes now, all moot.

  9. Lil says:

    The old man and his minions hate being humiliated and exposed for the useless, inutil assholes that they are. They’re now red-tagging community pantries.
    Maybe it was the Karl Marx quote. Maybe the DDS are just that stupid. Maybe it’s both.
    Careful, everyone. Don’t go wearing red out there. But Swastikas are ok.

    • I don’t think they are stupid, just caught up in being important to their benefactor. They feel important, validated. Probably weak, conflicted people.

      • kasambahay says:

        parlade is busy man, with his 19billion budget, he’s redtagging those behind community pantries, baka raw mga leftists seeking donations overseas to fund said pantries. baka, baka, baka. abakadae gahalamana.

        gotta hand it in to parlade, his imagination is build build build better than mine. kung talagang alam ni parlade na may overseas connection yang community pantries, he’s swooping now, maybe to ask for his cut, his payola? haha.

        folks, duterte is doing his own community pantry and approved pension of – veterans? raised to 20 thousand pesos a month. only his chosen people gets said pension, the rest can starve.

        parlade, can you pls redtag duterte? his community pantry sucks, lol!

        • kasambahay says:

          modernisation of the armed forces and to show how modern the army is, parlade updated to redtagging with ultra high visibility on social media. it can never be said now that the army is behind the time and does not know their keyboards.

          • kasambahay says:

            like joeam, I dont think of dds as stupid, cretins, morons and whatnot sort of people. some dds (duterte diehard supporters) are probly gainfully employed in the army, enjoying the full benefits of thier profession, their state of the art apple and android devices to die for.

      • Lil says:

        Hey Joe I follow you on Twitter. It’s under lily rach.

    • kasambahay says:

      community pantry, jumping on the hype, foreign sec locsin posted then deleted comments on his sosyalista friends, (sosyalistas as in communists? chinese communists?) having their own community pantry kuno, pics were posted of food laden tables na parang smorgasbord sa resto, indoor and not outdoor ang setting.

      the weird thing is: aside from locsin, no one local has reported having avail themselves of the said locsin’s sosyalista friends’ food. pics of supposedly free food pero walang pila, where are the needy people? ah, invisible people, nice, lol! weirder still, locsin did not say where exactly his friends community pantry is located. inside chinese embassy, mayhap, where you would have to be invited to get in, lol!

      • kasambahay says:

        iba po ito: heard ko po days ago sa united nations forum, vaccine czar galvez saying richer countries are hoarding vaccines thus making it harder for poorer countries like ours to get vaccines. dyos ko, I nearly choke on my glass of suntory! really, galvez, did duterte get to you, too?

        I called my friends overseas and asked if they’d been hoarding vaccines. absolutely not, sagot nila. putting vaccines in safe storage with correct temperature is not hoarding, but common sense.

        instead of thanking richer countries for donating billions of their own taxpayers money to covax facilities where vaccines are pooled and doled out to deliberately poorer countries like ours, deliberately poorer because our citizens knowingly propped up a govt that sorely lack competence; galvez accused richer countries of hoarding.

        bad manners on display sa united nations forum.

  10. Karl Garcia says:

    SCMP makes Duterte look brave..

    https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/southeast-asia/article/3130207/it-will-be-bloody-philippines-duterte-threatens-stake

    What Duterte actually said is that he will send ships only when China starts drilling.

    • Karl Garcia says:

      No matter how it is spinned, he is a defeatist.

      • LCPL_X says:

        I’m sure DU30 is acting in concert w/ Xi,

        1. fishing is the most important. That’s why Xi is instructing DU30 not to worry about it.

        2. China is not drilling/mining there (at least any time soon). But the answer to number 2 is more interesting IMHO, karl.

        Fish not so important because theres other sources of protein, other sources of fisheries.

        But that number 2 signals China is now basically like California or certain EU states and have now divested from oil; mining you can understand because they can mine else where. But I thought the South China sea was for oil all along. the reason for all the infrastructure.

        So its just for fishing now??? hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm….

              • kasambahay says:

                just heard po, duterte is not attending asean summit sa indonesia. baka teddy locsin will attend instead.

                baka may sakit si duterte, may covid, lol! pero seryosly, mayhap duterte cannot face his fellow heads of state without losing his own head, when ask what is he going to do with the chinese communist menace in julian filepe reef. is that part of his previous verbal agreement with pres xi? methink, the agreement is so vague, duterte cannot make head or tail of it. yango lang ng yango, did not ask question dahil did not want to look idiotic.

                na-belt and road si duterte. other countries like australia canceled the belt and road agreement. may mga provisions kasi na very unspecific daw, vague and difficult to understand, maybe to make china able to insert anything or update said agreement to whatever fits china’s current and future purpose. good thing that australia’s federal govt overruled the premier of the state of victoria, the premier who signed the belt and road agreement.

                duterte dont want to go to war with china; but he can cancel the anomalous belt and road. the pen is mightier than the sword.

              • Karl Garcia says:

                what alter-ego says, he says.(excuse)

              • Karl Garcia says:

                he does not care about Myanmar, he is also afraid that he might say something hypocritical like being for human rights.

              • kasambahay says:

                been there, done that. our country was once where myanmar is now, e.i, the sustained killings of civilians at a point of a gun in duterte’s failed drug war, the thrashing of human rights, the incarceration of senator de lima, the militarisation of public service, etc.

                duterte would feel at home sa asean summit, he’s familiar with the litany; asean countries closer to the military than to the people of myanmar. and since myanmar refugees are threatening to overwhelm the borders of adjacent countries, asean countries must be seen to do something even though asean countries barely alienate one of their own.

                methink, the asean summit is a summit when you’re not having a summit.

      • kasambahay says:

        methink, china has already drilled a hole in his head, his brain leaked long ago.

        • kasambahay says:

          communist china dont need to drill for oil sa karagatan natin. all china has to do is bring their aircraft at navy at mag-refuel sa dabaw, welcome sila anytime of the day and night, lol!

          • kasambahay says:

            and to think that our fishermen got harassed by chinese militia whose fuel are probly sourced from dabaw, I can be forgiven.

    • LCPL_X says:

      karl,

      I’m thinking now that overfishing is not as bad as more oil mining.

      The solution for overfishing is easier, whereas the solution for dependence in oil is much more difficult.

      So here in California, we have no more coal; much of the eletricity now is thru natural gas, but in the desert in Socal a bunch of solar arrays everywhere. The trajectory then is to go the renewable route— lately what’s abuzz here is Lithium mining in the east and south of California, i’m sure Nevada too.

      The fact that China’s priority is fish and not oil means its clearly headed towards where California is right now, and that’s pretty impressive considering the European century (London, Luddites, etc. 1800s) and the American century (1900s, WWI to WII drill baby drill ) was based on coal and oil.

      Plus its 1.5 billion population.

      in 10 years China was able to skip all that mess (1800s and 1900s) with coal and oil and went straight to where California is right now.

      I hope China has invested in lab created meat or cricket protein, or convinced its population to eat beef or something, so as to not overfish. Make Wagyu beef popular in China, beer drinkin’ cattle is good for everyone.

      But if you track how California fixed its own overfishing problem early in the last century, it was just a whole lot of protected waters and then enforcement. So again refer to our above discussion re Filipinos use of dynamites and chemicals, and all that enforcement should be carried over to enforcement against other countries.

      The next big issue is China’s population pyramid, karl.

      Soon they’ll be fishing for Filipinos, to help care for their aged and aging population. that’s a lot of butts to wipe!!! There’s room to negotiate here, karl. All is not lost. But are Filipinos satisfied with only being care-givers??? that’s the question one needs answered before

      negotiations. One’s worth needs reevaluation.

      • The statement ‘satisfied with only being care-givers’ strikes me as being the elitism of the privileged. When you come from poverty, care-giving is a profession. Life’s a ladder to the skies, eh, no top for the aspiring, and the first step is just as prestigious as the one way up there where you are. Of course some Filipinos are on a higher step than you, which makes me wonder if you are satisfied with only being you.

        • LCPL_X says:

          20 years ago, most Chinese were just peasants, Joe… 2021, most now are taking vacations in Europe.

          Don’t make this personal, I’m talking about state policies that benefit its constituents. Not one on one stuff. Remember I’m just a PhD in Google, not purporting to be educated with high degrees and stuff. nor a doctor or lawyer, just some guy with Google , Joe.

          This is Chinese vs. Philippine policies.

          • I’m not taking it personal. I’m on a high step. I’m calling out what appears to be your crass elitism and disdain for people who struggle. Like, how can you be so out of touch with what life is like for people who have little money and not many choices? Google more. Gain comprehension. Gain compassion.

      • Karl Garcia says:

        In this pandemic times, I wish we had more nurses and caregivers here and abroad.

        • LCPL_X says:

          Joe, here’s what I mean in graph form:

          • Then distinguish between government and Filipinos, as people.

          • I’ve declined to publish your last remark because it continues to demean caregivers.

            • LCPL_X says:

              Joe,

              This is along the lines of “Filipinos are mendicants” tradition, IMHO its the same vein. If its offensive because I’m no Filipino then thats another issue. But understand that I’ve been consistent in representing the perspectives of say the negritos, badjaos, low flying pigeons, etc. etc.

              When no one even bothers to bring them up.

              My critique is simply that Filipinos = their gov’t, it is after all a democracy, Joe… only Filipinos keep on voting into office folks who aren’t qualified.

              But this notion of victimhood, that Their gov’t does not equal the Filipino people is probably also the wrong way to see things. Because it transfers the blame on others, when in fact Filipinos vote those that represent them.

              I don’t think China 20 years ago sent out OFWs, to be national heroes to send money back home; or BPO industry , sure China went the manufacturing route, but 20 years from zero to hero is a big deal, and although China is no democracy , China does have a history of ousting tyrants. the Chinese are happy with Xi and his predecessors. The Chinese communists have to keep on delivering, otherwise bye bye.

              But since WWII, even when Filipinos received a lot from the US and from Japan as reparations, they never ascended. I’m sure Singapore nor China didn’t have restaurants that revolved around over looking cities like in Cebu and Manila in the 1960s.

              My point, the Philippines was in a pretty good place post-WWII, its the penchant for mendicancy (karl’s favourite phrase) that’s kept Filipinos down. Start IMHO in taking ownership of this pattern of elected officials.

              So Ireneo’s wrong, Filipinos = their gov’t , both are just too mired in mendicancy to ascend. At the state and individual levels. There’s a direct correlation between mendicancy and compassion , Joe. Same reason Mother Theresa never really got anyone rich.

              • There are words and ideals and concepts, and there is life on the ground. The challenge is to fit them together, not to hold to the words and ideals and concepts as actually being life on the ground. That’s a form of fallacy, deception, ignorance, or lunacy, it seems to me. Filipinos the people are more subjects than boss.

              • And it is not really a choice.

              • LCPL_X says:

                ooops, that fb link didn’t work, here:

                http://philippinehistorysourcematerials.blogspot.com/2011/02/our-mendicant-foreign-policy.html

                “We have become victims of our own propaganda which we pompously call “psychological warfare”. Like a small dog, we go tagging along behind Uncle Sam wherever he goes in Asia, barking here and there at the Communists, with our little, almost inaudible, bark. Of course the enemy knows that “our bark is worse than our bite” and so far we have not produced any reaction except perhaps some annoyance.

                Let us awake from the daydreams of adolescence, and cease to imagine ourselves as saviors of a world in distress, riding on our fanciful adventures for which we have neither heart nor strength, while we neglect the care of our own concerns.”

                ________________________________________

                But words always tend to become reality, Joe– why ideas are so dangerous. Words incite. its its purpose.

              • You are so full of, um, it. 🤣🤣😂 Words are words, zillions of them. Some become reality, some help us figure reality out. Most lead to knowledge and a few are dangerous. The Philippines is burdened with a history you had little part in, and I’d venture to say will move forward without your views as much as holding a thimbleful of importance. The biggest question for me is whether disadvantaged Filipinos KNOW they can, with enough others, chose a destiny that treats them better. I suspect the concept escapes them and explaining it would generate the famous ‘nosebleed’ stare, where they hear the English but can’t connect with the meaning. Through no fault of their own.

              • LCPL_X says:

                The concept escapes them? No, unless Filipinos have all suffered from Zika head syndrome, I suspect they are like the rest of humanity, Joe.

                See the difference in how we both view Filipinos? I’m wanting to see them be more. Fight for it.

              • I do, which rather proves the point, you have no idea what is going on here.

              • LCPL_X says:

                What I know about the 3rd world and the 1st is that in the end, we all poop, pee and eat, drink the same, and sleep and screw. The difference is in where and how we want to do it in. That’s the only difference.

                I guess I’m the glass half full guy here in saying that Filipinos should demand better places and imagination to do all 4. But kasambahay has already hinted though unintentionally at this demand for better, Joe.

                Young Filipinos wanna be rock stars and models. Sure probably wishful thinking, but at least its the opposite of mendicancy. Dream big. It’s a start , Joe. Thats essentially the point of my argument.

        • kasambahay says:

          I heard po robot caregivers are being trialed, they dont get sick with covid, dont expect to receive much pay, and only need maintenance and service now and then.

          • Karl Garcia says:

            human touch missing.

            • kasambahay says:

              going to be very costly human touch is. care givers are diminishing breed, not enough of them and the ones we have now are getting older and retiring soon.

              younger people want to be rock stars, models, entrepreneurs, tik tokers , socmed celebs and influencers, etc. very few want to be dedicated accredited caregivers vetted by universities and colleges, their skills honed by years of studies and experience in the workplace.

              people being cared for are sometimes violent and strikes at caregivers, nangangagat, nambabato ng baso, nagmumura, etc. most care givers need rabbies and tetanus shots.

              • kasambahay says:

                caregivers at entry levels are tasked with looking after people face to face. older and more experienced care givers progressed to become administrators and supervisors and only after they have done additional courses and meet criteria relevant to thier job.

              • Karl Garcia says:

                Sigh

              • I removed your expletive as I didn’t understand what provoked it or who it was aimed at.

              • LCPL_X says:

                kasambahay,

                This is exactly my point!

                These young Filipinos should want to be rock stars, models, influencers, etc. anything but work that promotes mendicancy.

                Mendicancy.

                Break this mindset, and I’m sure this new generation of Filipinos will want more out of their representatives.

                Want less and of course it’ll be more of the same.

                I read somewhere that Filipino doctors, take nursing exams in Canada, EU and the US because they feel they cannot be doctors in the 1st world. This is mendicancy in action, the de-valuation of oneself, kb.

              • Missing the point LCPL_X.

                The structure of the medical field in the US prioritizes the migration of nurses over doctors. They apply because it is easier. I have a lot of friends who went that route. The difference between those who became nurses whereas those who became doctors in the US was simply family background. Those coming from relatively rich families had the resources to become doctors in the US whereas those who didn’t just go the nurse’s route.

              • Karl Garcia says:

                Sorry Joe, I do not want to get banned here and I am not asking anyone to be banned, but I already got a comment or more deleted for calling out LCX post as assholery. I know LCX means well, but he is so mean. Implying that doctors took nursing exams because they could not cut it as doctors in the FIRST world is just another assholish post.

              • Yes, he is practicing assholery today and is oblivious to it. I think there is a new social disease going around where people become so enamored of their own place in the world that they consign others to a lower place. It’s the root of conspiracy theories, trumpism, and DDS.

              • I just though of this German song, here with subtitles:

              • LCPL_X says:

                karl, check again what I said, i didn’t say they can’t be doctors, i said they think they can’t, they’ve consigned themselves as less.

                Gian, interesting perspective, but it doesn’t explain why there’s more Indian (from india) doctors in the US. Lots of doctors from Caribbean med schools too– which is weird. I think its the first notion at work.

              • LCPL_X says:

                Gian,

                So the U.S. has prioritized Indian doctors, and Philippine nurses, but not Philippine doctors. Does not make sense at all.

                kb below, is correct I think most Philippine doctors see nursing as an easier route, less responsibility and such. But I am simply connecting it to mendicancy mindset, where in they’ve already decided being doctors in the US is so much more difficult.

                Thus what kb said below is more plausible than what Gian says is some sort of immigration statute, because its really weird then that theres like almost a monopoly of Philippine nurses in the US, but no Philippine doctors, but there’s a bunch of Indian, and even Persian, I’ve met Nigerian doctors too.

                So there’s a shortage of doctors here, thats making big hospital chains dip into 3rd world doctors, yet Philippine doctors would rather be nurses. It just doesn’t make sense, Gian,

                so hopefully some of your friends can clarify. Thanks.

              • kasambahay says:

                I’ll jump in for gian: despite shortage of doctors, western countries wont lower their standard and would rather bring 3rd world doctors up to western level.

                about indian and nigerian doctors getting employed ahead of filipino doctors, it may well be that both india and nigeria are commonwealth nations. so long as they dont have criminal records, final yr medical studients from both india and nigeria can travel anywhere in the commonwealth with less fuss and often do their practicum/residencies in western commonwealth countries like canada, australia, new zealand, england, scotland, etc. there is generous study assistance in the commonwealth counties, money wise, loans.

                may lamang sila and already have prior access to western technologies and knowledge of western terminologies. and after successfully completing residence, they are often offered entry level employment and after qualifying period, some stayed while others immigrate to estados unidos, i.e, after paying their student loans.

              • TY KB.

                based on public data per every 1000 there are 0.6 Pinoy doctors to 0.9 Indian Doctors.

                This disparity increases if you multiply it by the 10X difference in populations.

                Also, If I go on personal experience as LCPLX loves to do ALL my batchmates who wanted to go to the US are practicing there right now. ALL the doctors in my family who wanted to practice in the US are there right now.

                Also another anecdote. ALL of the doctors who studied as nurses that were family friends are now dual citizens and back here and are practicing as doctors.

              • sonny says:

                FYI: for skills-transfer, respect for & compliance with standards are key. Because of traditional proven success and quality assurance, an immigrant should be knowledgeable of the local requirements of the trade or profession he/she is looking to be part of.

            • LCPL_X says:

              There is a chance I suppose if one was a care-giver for say an old movie actor in Hollywood, gets written into said actor or rich person’s will, then care-giving would have paid off. Or inherits a car or house or million bucks.

              But now we’re in the realm of gambler’s fallacy. Though i’m sure it happens.

              • kasambahay says:

                rock stars and models po, at some point in their lives need care givers too and could well be mendicant. rock stars and models sometimes have to beg their agent for work, not all rock stars and models stay on top of their games and have to compete with others. rock stars that can no longer fill venues end up having career change and become care givers, some become taxi drivers. broke.

              • Some get totally screwed by their agents who make the most money out of them. In fact based on my tabloid wisdom it seems some talent show contracts are designed that way to milk the winners after 3 years and it is rare any of them is still popular then.

                Faded TV stars in Germany get sent to the so-called jungle camp where they have to be mean to each other and humiliate themselves, it is Germany’s answer to Wowowee.

              • LCPL_X says:

                What’s usually meant by rockstars and models is that they will be rich and/or powerful. At the very least not dependent on others. Though, true everyone gets old, or even fails the point I think

                is to reach higher. As oppose to lower.

              • kasambahay says:

                as for filipino doctors unable to work immediately as doctors in 1st world countries, it may well be they cannot hit the floor running and need to acclimatize, their bedside manners have to be brought up to scratch and they need to attend prescribed bridging courses on top of the qualifications they already have. also their knowledge of local, cultural customs and language proficiency need to be vetted and fine tuned. if they can do all that and pass all requirements, they can be doctors in 1st world countries.

                nurses on the others hand, may not want the responsibilities that doctors have and chose to remain as nurses. plus the professional indemnity insurance paid by nurses are not as high as those paid for by doctors.

              • sonny says:

                “… as for filipino doctors unable to work immediately as doctors in 1st world countries, it may well be they cannot hit the floor running and need to acclimatize, …”

                Their performance during their residency (clinical specialty) and the licensing process (written & orals) usually suffices to vet their competence for public practice. Supplementary information/certification also helps the process.

                Language/Communication proficiency is very important and super-critical (e.g. leadership, sales, legal, teaching, nursing, customer service fields) to enter, survive and thrive in the profession/career.

            • LCPL_X says:

              kb and Gian, et al.

              Thanks! The commonwealth connection may or may not inform why there’s less Filipino doctors to Indian doctors in the US, although I can see the probability of Indians going to UK, or Canada, or Australia, then finally to the US (non-commonwealth). probably because in those English-speaking countries, socialize medicine won’t be too profitable in the long term, they come here.

              Lots of Filipino nurses too in Australia/UK, even Ireland, not so sure about Canada.

              But Gian’s ratio of Filipino and Indian doctors, I think is more likely the answer we’re looking for. More Indian doctors in India, equals more Indian doctors here. Maybe I’m mistakenly assuming that doctors and nurses are a package deal, ie. where you have med schools you’ll have proportional nursing schools, by the way, there are hardly Indian nurses here.

              thus the disparity is the issue. Which I’m still very interested about.

              Here’s a graph from last Census which I thought might be informative, specific to California. Now keep in mind that Filipinos have been coming to California since the 1900s (after the Spanish American war). but Indians as a group are recent comers here, and they mainly populate the tech sector.

              Filipinos its the medical field and civil service sectors; the Chinese, and I notice HK’ers and Taiwanese are lumped in as Chinese, are private enterprise (business, import/export, etc.) But there’s newer Chinese like Oscars’ big winner tonite Choe Zhao who are kids of rich Chinese families sent to schools in the West (I’m very excited about Marvel’s ETERNALS under her directorship, by the way).

              I think the numbers for Filipinos and Indians are spot on, and in a way explains the nursing and physician disparity also, but mostly because of tech and civil service sectors pay. FWIW, I think that Chinese income average would be larger, but Chinese tend to not trust banks and tend to hide money at home. So in the Census they’d also not disclose.

              Also, relevant to the discussion pay close attention to the size of the circles, Chinese and Filipinos tend to be neck and neck. Indians considerably less.

  11. LCPL_X says:

    On Tuesday morning, I posted a pre-verdict version of this column on Star Tribune Opinion, suggesting it might be useful to cast oneself as a metaphorical “13th juror” — if only to examine whether one has paid sufficient attention to the trial and the evidence to second-guess the actual verdict when it arrived. For what it is worth, and for the record, here is what I wrote:

    “For my part I find myself prepared — were I going into deliberations — to be persuaded to convict Chauvin on the least serious of the three charges against him, manslaughter in the second degree. His failure in the final minutes of his restraint of George Floyd to recognize Floyd’s dangerous distress and to provide medical aid rises to the level of ‘culpable negligence’ required by the statute.

    “I’m unconvinced that the state proved ‘beyond reasonable doubt’ the deliberate infliction of harm or conscious creation of deadly danger required for the more serious murder charges. But Chauvin’s dereliction of his duty to care for a person in his custody seems clear.

    “The cause-of-death issue is a mess, and has been from the start. The formulation of Hennepin County Medical Examiner Andrew Baker that the whole overwhelming encounter with police ‘was just more than Mr. Floyd could take by virtue of [his] heart conditions,’ seems the soundest conclusion. But has the state proven ‘beyond reasonable doubt’ that it was the wholly indefensible portion of Chauvin’s conduct that made the fatal difference, rather than the whole ordeal? I’m most convinced if, once again, the focus is on the failure to provide lifesaving aid.

    The 12 ordinary jurors in this case saw things differently. And now the jury has spoken. All of us must respect the actual verdicts as we brace for reaction, and for the appeals.

    D.J. Tice is at doug.tice@startribune.com.

    D.J. Tice is commentary editor and an opinion columnist for the Star Tribune, based in Minneapolis. He previously served seven years as political news editor. He has written extensively about Minnesota and American politics and history, economics and legal affairs.

    https://www.startribune.com/the-verdict-of-a-13th-juror-on-chauvin-and-the-trial/600048059/
    _______________________________________

    Best opinion on the verdict.

  12. Re energy, Thailand is now building floating solar farms.

    That is an interesting way of utilizing sea space.

    https://fb.watch/5362nJkHuS/

    • kasambahay says:

      carpio is right po, duterte is like a headless chicken, lol! duterte should not be asking such questions to carpio, carpio is not united nations rep.

      duterte once attended united nations conference at nagsalita duon,and should have asked the said question then. instead pinagmalaki ni duterte ang ICC ruling and was applauded.

      about time duterte cancel the build build build, now china is coming closer closer closer.

  13. Karl Garcia says:

    https://globalnation.inquirer.net/195612/china-doubles-down-on-ownership-claim-on-wps-tells-philippines-to-respect-it

    —-

    If Duterte bows down and say that there is nothing we can do, what kind of a president is he? Can anyone tell those who will vote for those allied to him that they will be making another huge mistake.

    • madlanglupa says:

      That’s why starting today we have to tell just how potentially dangerous some of his allies would be once they win larger national positions.

  14. http://www.biznewsasia.com/defending-philippine-eez-and-territory-in-the-south-china-sea/

    By Justice ANTONIO T. CARPIO
    Former Senior Associate Justice, Supreme Court of the Philippines
    Why is the South China Sea important?
    Today the South China Sea is one of the most important international waterways in the world. About $5.3 trillion in ship-borne goods traverse the South China Sea every year, four leading exporting countries use the South China Sea for their maritime trade.
    You have China, you have Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, about 65% of the petroleum imports of South Korea, 60% of the petroleum imports of Japan and Taiwan passed through the narrow strait of Malacca on the way to these countries.
    And today 50% of the petroleum imports of China pass through the narrow state of Malacca going to China. But before 2015, 80% of the petroleum imports of China passed through the narrow strait of Malacca. 
    And China was always worried that someone might block this narrow strait and the Chinese economy will grind to a halt. So China built two pipelines, one for oil and the other for gas from the coast of Myanmar to Kunming in Yunnan province and these pipelines started operating in 2015.
    So today, 30% of the petroleum imports of China pass through these two pipelines, and only 50% pass through the narrow strait of Malacca. About 12% of the total annual fish catch of the world comes from South China Sea.
    Rich in fishery
    The South China Sea is very rich in the fishery. It’s a very small sea. It comprises only about 2.5% of the ocean surface of the world but it accounts for 12% of the annual fish catch because of the Spratlys.
    The Spratlys are an extensive collection of atoll—atoll reefs and the Spratlys are where the fish spawn—they lay their eggs there and the eggs and larvae of the fish that spawn here are carried by currents to the coast of China, Vietnam, Luzon, Palawan, Sulu Sea.
    The coast of Indonesia here in the Natuna, the coast of Borneo, Vietnam and that’s why we have a lot of fish in the South China Sea. If you remove the Spratlys you will not get as much fish as you have now in the South China Sea. The South China Sea is also rich in methane hydrates. 
    Methane hydrates
    What are methane hydrates? There are lumps of minerals found at the bottom of the sea. At the bottom of the sea where the temperature is very cold and the pressure is very strong, ice crystals form around natural gas, so natural gas is encapsulated in ice crystals and there’s now a technology to extract this natural gas.
    Methane hydrates are estimated to be more abundant than oil and gas combined. The world reserves of methane hydrates are more than the combined reserves of oil and gas in the world. And China has estimated that the methane hydrates in the South China Sea could power the Chinese economy for 100 years at least.
    So China now is testing here on the coast of Guangdong, a pilot area where they are extracting methane hydrates. China is a technology to extract natural gas from methane hydrates. The US has the technology and Canada has the technology and Japan also has the technology.
    $5.3 trillion goods pass thru the South China Sea
    The South China Sea is now a very important international waterway. Of the $5.3 trillion shipborne goods that pass through the South China Sea every year, about $1 trillion of that is US inbound and outbound trade. And another $1 trillion is European Union inbound and outbound trade.
    So these countries outside of the region have an interest in maintaining peace and stability in the South China Sea because their exports and imports pass through the South China Sea.
    The South China Sea is also dotted with hundreds of small rocks above water at high tide. If the rock is only an inch above water at high tide it’s considered still land or territory entitled to a territorial sea of 12 nautical miles all around.
    A rock with 155,000 hectares equivalent surface
    What is the surface area of that? That’s about 155,000 hectares. How large is 155,000 hectares? That’s more than twice the land area of Metro Manila, more than twice the land area of Singapore.
    So if you own a tiny rock—one inch above water at high tide in the South China Sea you own everything within the territorial sea you own all the fish, oil, gas, and mineral resources. So a tiny rock in the middle of the South China Sea is very valuable.
    So that countries now fight over these small rocks and that’s why we have the South China Sea dispute. Because those rocks are very valuable even if you cannot grow a single tree in that rock, it still has a 12 nautical mile territorial sea around that and that’s a huge area. 
    Pagasa Island
    Also even if the rock is submerged at high tide it is still a value.  In the proceedings at The Hague, we showed to the tribunal Pagasa, that’s our largest island in the Spratlys and we told the tribunal that Pagasa being above water at high tide it’s about 45 hectares in area, it has a territorial sea around it—12 nautical miles but in this area, there is a low tide rock here and under UNCLOS a low tide rock can be used to measure the 12 nautical miles. (see page 9) 
    So if you measure the 12 nautical miles from this rock, then we have an extended here—our territorials are more than 12 nautical miles from the coastline of Pagasa because we’re measuring it from this rock—that is low tide. That rock is not land it is not territory because it’s submerged at high tide but you can see it at low tide that’s why it’s called the low tide rock. 
    It still has value because it can extend your territorial sea and the tribunal upheld us. And that’s why the tribunal said Subi Reef is part of the territorial sea of Pagasa because if you measure the 12 nautical mile territorial sea from this rock Subi reef is part of the territorial sea. If it’s measured from the coastline here of Pagasa, Subi reef is outside our territorial sea.
    But UNCLOS allows that under Article 13 part of 1, we can use this as our baseline—the low tide rock. Now China did not participate in the proceedings of The Hague, but China submitted a position paper. China said, we’re not participating but this is our position—and this is—in that position paper, China said, we own the South China Sea because we owned it since 2000 years ago.
    Fake news
    We were the first country to discover, name, explore, and exploit the resources of the South Sea Island. This is the historical narrative of China why they are claiming the South China Sea as theirs. And this historical narrative has been taught to every Chinese citizen from grade school to college. 
    So every Chinese general, admiral Politburo member, diplomat, professor, businessmen, bureaucrat—they have been taught this historical narrative and they sincerely believe it—they sincerely believe that they own the South China Sea since 2000 years ago.
    They were the first to discover, name, explore and exploit—this historical narrative is totally false. I call this the fake news of the millennium—the fake history of the millennium. It’s totally false and we will—I will prove it here.
    Now in 2009, China submitted this map to the United Nations, this is called the nine-dash line map of China. And the note verbal that accompanied this map, China said, we own everything within the nine-dash line and the tribunal of The Hague said it is only from this the date that the world was notified of China’s claim. (see page 9 map)
    Although the nine-dash line map was made by China in 1947, it was only distributed within China and it did not bind the world.
    From 2009, when this was submitted to the UN, was the time when countries should object and we objected to this map we protested—China does not own the waters within the nine-dash line.
    And Indonesia protested. Vietnam protested, so many countries protested. Now in 2013 China published a new map, which is called the vertical map because the orientation is vertical—and in this map, China added the 10th dash on the eastern side of Taiwan. So the nine-dash lines are still growing up to today—there are ten dashes now but I still call it the nine-dash line.
    In this map, if you look at the legend of the map, this shading which means national boundary is the shading you find in the ten dashes—the same shading on the continental land boundary of China.
    So China treats the waters within the ten dashes here, in the same way, it treats its territory here-it’s land territory.  China treats the waters as its national territory and we protested also this map.
    Now let’s go back to a little bit of history, what happened in the South China Sea from 1946 to 2017. Before World War II, the southernmost territory of China was Hainan.
    No Chinese sailors
    Not a single Chinese sailor or soldier was stationed in the South China Sea, none in the Paracels. None in the Spratlys. None in Scarborough Shoal.
    Throughout the Chinese dynasties, the southernmost territory of China was Hainan. China never occupied any of the territory islands in the South China Sea. Now, when did China move out of the Hainan?
    Before World War II—just before World War II, the Japanese seized the Paracels from the French.  The French occupied the Paracels at that time. Japan also occupied Itu Aba, the largest island in the Spratlys and Japan put up a submarine base in Itu Aba.
    That submarine base was used in the invasion of the Philippines with the defeat of the Japanese forces. 
    The Japanese forces left the South China Sea, China made its move.
    In 1946, after World War II, when the Japanese forces left the South China Sea, China seized half of the Paracels, the other half of the Paracels was recovered by the French and inherited by the South Vietnamese government.
    China seized Itu Aba in 1946
    Also, in 1946, China seized Itu Aba the submarine base of the Japanese. So China made a great leap in 1946 from Hainan to the Paracels, and to the Spratlys.
    In 1974 towards the dying days of the Vietnam war, China seized the other half of the Paracels from the South Vietnamese government, which was very weak at that time already.
    There was a battle there—the battle of the Paracels. In 1987, China put up a radar weather station on Fiery Cross Reef.
    In 1987, UNESCO was conducting a global oceanic survey, and China volunteered—China said, we will help UNESCO, we will put up a radar weather station on Fiery Cross reef to help UNESCO and it was a very noble act nobody objected everybody applauded China.
    Today, the Fiery Cross Reef is an air naval base of China.
    China seizes Subi Reef in 1988
    In 1988, China seized Subi from the Philippines. We did not even notice it—it was not reported in the newspapers in Manila.
    We were not familiar then with the UNCLOS but China seized Subi Reef and at the same time China sees Johnson South Reef from the communist Vietnamese and there was a skirmish in Johnson South Reef between the Vietnamese and the Chinese and about 69 Vietnamese sailors were killed in that skirmish.
    China seizes Mischief, Scarborough Shoal, Sandy Cay
    In 1995, China seized Mischief Reef from the Philippines.  That was widely reported in the papers in Manila; 2012, China seized Scarborough Shoal from the Philippines, widely reported also; and 2013, China seized Luconia Shoals from Malaysia.
    Luconia Shoals is just 54 nautical miles from the coast of Sabah; in 2015 and 2016, China started building air naval bases on its seven geologic features in the Spratlys. China started reclaiming those geologic features, creating artificial islands.
    In 2017, China seized Sandy Cay from the Philippines. China seized it by surrounding Sandy Cay with its maritime militia vessels. The same way that it seized Scarborough Shoal from the Philippines. China surrounded it with their vessels—their coast guard vessels and their maritime vessels, and that’s how they seized Sandy Cay from the Philippines.(see page 9 map)
    Sandy Cay near Pagasa
    Sandy Cay is just two nautical miles from Pagasa, our largest island in the Spratlys. But the Duterte administration is still in denial. The Duterte administration does not accept that—or does not tell the Filipino people that we have lost Sandy Cay to the Chinese.
    So if you look at these developments from 1946 to 2017, you will see a creeping expansion by China in the South China Sea and that is exactly what happened from 1946 to 2017.
    In February 2016, a few months before the tribunal issued its ruling in July 2016, the Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi gave a talk in Washington DC at the CSIS, which’s the leading think tank in Washington DC.
    Before diplomats from all over the world, Foreign Minister Wang Yi said, China and the Philippines are very close neighbors, separated by just a narrow body of water. China and the Philippines are very close neighbors separated by a narrow body of water. Think of that. How can we be very close neighbors separated by just a narrow body of water?
    This is it, since the nine-dash line constitutes the national boundary of China—China owns all of the waters to the west and we are left with this sliver of water as our territorial sea and exclusive economic zone.
    So from Balabac Island, our southernmost island facing the South China Sea Chinese territory is just 64 kilometers away. From Bolinao in Pangasinan, Chinese territory is just 70 kilometers away from Y’ami Island, our southernmost territory in the Batanes, Chinese boundary is just 44 kilometers away.
    Historical narrative
    This is the historical narrative that has been taught to every Chinese citizen. So when President Xi Jinping came here last November 2018. Before his actual arrival, the ambassador of China, Ambassador Zhao wrote an opinion piece in Philippine Star. 
    He wrote—it appeared on Nov. 15, 2018, and in that opinion piece his opening sentence said—stated that, being separated by only a narrow strip of water, China and the Philippines have been close neighbors for centuries. So this is the historical narrative again this according to Ambassador Zhao is the context of the visit of President Xi Jinping to Manila.
    Since the Philippines and China are very close neighbors, President Zhao is visiting the Philippines and this was officially published in the Philippine Star and  I asked the Star editors who provided this picture and the editor said, Ambassador Zhao.
    The subtle message of the Chinese is that President Duterte and the entire cabinet agree that the Philippines and China have been very close neighbors for centuries. Separated by only a narrow strip of water. The Duterte administration never contested this never objected to this.
    So President Xi finally arrived in Manila and when he arrived he published an opinion piece on a full page in Manila Bulletin and Philippine Star and in that full-page ad was entitled “Open Up New Future Together for China-Philippines Relations”, and in his opinion piece, President Xi said, over 600 years ago, Chinese navigator Zheng He made multiple visits to Manila, Visayas, Sulu on his seven overseas voyages.
    So President Xi was telling everybody in the Philippines that the Chinese were here in Manila over 600 years ago. Why did President Xi say this? Because last year, 2019 the Spaniards celebrated the 500-year departure of Magellan from Spain to the Philippines.
    Magellan left Spain in 1519 and two and a half years later he arrived in the Philippines in 1521, so next year 2021 we will be celebrating the 500 year anniversary of Magellan and the arrival of Christianity. But President Xi is saying “No we were ahead. We were in the Philippines 600 years ago.” 
    The Spaniards arrived 500 years ago only.  President Xi is saying—we were ahead of the Spaniards by over a hundred years so the Chinese are saying, “we were the first to discover the Philippines and the consequence of that is—since we were the first to discover, the islands in the Philippines belong to us.
    But, they will say, “We are generous. We will not recover Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao but, we will keep the Spratly Scarborough Shoal, that is the message of President Xi. But this narrative is totally false. Zheng He never visited the Philippines. That’s the article of President Xi in the Philippine Star, that’s in Manila Bulletin.
    Now there is an international Zheng He Society and they have a branch in Singapore. These are composed of scholars, and in 2005, the Singapore Zheng He international society published a book, “Admiral Zheng He and Southeast Asia” and one of the article in that book was written by Professor Hsu and the title of his article is, “Did Admiral Zheng He Visit the Philippines?” Professor Hsu said, Zheng He never visited the Philippines.
    The word Chan Cheng was actually a Ming Dynasty name for a Malaystate in Indo-China. They thought that Chan Cheng refers to Luzon.
    But Professor Hsu said Chan Cheng is a Ming Dynasty name for a Malaystate in Indo-China. Was there a Malaystate in Indo-China? Yes, The Champa Kingdom. The Chams were descended from the Austronesians. We Filipinos are descended from the Austronesians. We speak a language—Tagalog is derived from the Austronesian language, and the language of the Chams was also derived from the Austronesian language.
    And the Chams put up a powerful maritime kingdom in Central Vietnam. This was before the arrival of the Europeans in the South China Sea. So this was before the 1400s before the 14th century. The Chams were so powerful that the South China Sea was called the Cham Sea.
    The first name ever given to the South China Sea was the Cham Sea because the Chams was a powerful maritime kingdom in Central Vietnam facing the Cham Sea. Last December, I visited the Da Nang in Central Vietnam and there is in Da Nang a Cham Museum and one of the books sold there is this book, and the book says, that the name Zhan Cheng comes from the Champapura  that means “the town of Champa.”
    And the inhabitants of the Champa Kingdom were the Chams and they were the Cham language fell under the Austronesian umbrella. The Chams were distant cousins because they were Austronesians just like us.
    So Zheng He actually visited Central Vietnam and Chan Cheng is in Central Vietnam not in the Philippines. Now, there is a Chinese scholar, he works in the People’s Republic of China, the Naval Hydrographic Institute.
    He wrote an article in the International Hydrographic Review in 1988 and he traced the root of the voyages of Zheng He from China to Central Vietnam all the way to the Strait of Malacca.
    Here is the Philippines, so Zheng He never even saw the coastlines of the Philippines and this is from a Chinese scholar who works in the People’s Republic of China. Now in 2018, National Geographic Magazine published an article on the 7 Voyages of Zheng He and that article contained a chart of the voyage of Zheng He, the nautical root of Zheng He.
    And it follows the same route—from China he went to Central Vietnam through the narrow Strait of Malacca. The Philippines is here. So, Zheng He never visited the Philippines. In fact, all the scholars all over the world are unanimous. Zheng He never visited the Philippines.
    Now the largest island in the Spratlys is Itu Aba. It’s about 45 hectares compared to Pagasa. Pagasa by the way is 36 hectares only.
    So this is occupied now by Taiwan. The issue in the arbitration is—is this island capable of human habitation of its own? Because if it’s capable of human habitation of its own it is entitled to a 12 nautical mile territorial sea plus an extended continental shelf up to 200 nautical miles. 
    Now if this island is not capable of human habitation of its own then none of the islands in the Spratlys would also be capable of human habitation of its own and therefore, all islands in Spratlys will be entitled only to 12 nautical mile territorial sea. China has declared that Itu Aba is capable of generating 200 nautical miles EEZ.
    So that EEZ will overlap with the EEZ of Palawan and there will be an overlapping EEZ and therefore since China made a reservation in 2006—that in case of overlapping EEZ’s China will not be, subjected—will not submit itself to compulsory arbitration.
    And therefore since this island has an EEZ, the tribunal of Hague has no jurisdiction over the case. The issue of whether Itu Aba is capable of human habitation of its own or not was crucial in the case. Because if it’s capable of human habitation then, its EEZ of 200 nautical miles would overlap with the EEZ of Palawan and therefore the tribunal has no jurisdiction because this island is just over 200 nautical miles from Palawan.
    Now, what was the ruling of the tribunal? The tribunal said, to determine whether an island is capable of human habitation or not, you must look at its natural condition whether it can sustain a stable community of people, and in Itu Aba people can live there because Taiwan has put up two desalination plants.
    People can gather—there are vegetable gardens there, there are fruit trees there because Taiwan imported garden soil from Taipei and placed it up in Itu Aba so you can plant fruit trees there now in Itu Aba. But the tribunal said that will not count because you must look at the natural condition. And the tribunal said it is a natural condition, it’s a borderline case whether Itu Aba can support a stable community of people. 
    There is water when there is rain, but when there is no rain you don’t find water in Itu Aba. The topsoil is very thin so it’s a borderline case. And in that case, if it’s a borderline case you must look at the historical presence of people in Itu Aba. The people actually inhabit Itu Aba in the past. There is no record whatsoever—none.
    So the tribunal said since there has been no record of human habitation in Itu Aba, then it’s probably because Itu Aba is not capable of human habitation of its own. So, the ruling was Itu Aba, the largest island in the Spratlys is not capable of human habitation of its own and therefore it has no EEZ it is only a territorial sea.
    And that was the reason why the tribunal said, we have jurisdiction. Because there is no overlapping EEZ between Palawan and any of the features in the Spratlys. Let’s go to Scarborough Shoal, that’s Scarborough Shoal—just a piece of rock that’s at the high tide that’s the only thing you can see. So, it’s a high tide elevation—it’s above water high tide—so it’s land, it’s territory.
    China says it’s capable of human habitation of its own and it’s entitled to 200 nautical miles Exclusive Economic Zone and we said, of course not—it’s so obvious, it’s not capable of human habitation.
    Not a single blade of grass grows there. You cannot squeeze a single drop of freshwater. And so the tribunal agreed with us, that Scarborough Shoal is just a rock.
    It’s entitled to 12 nautical miles territorial sea but—that’s all. It cannot generate an Exclusive Economic Zone–the tribunal of course said that under UNCLOS a coastal state can claim 12 nautical miles of territorial sea, and if there’s space an additional 188 nautical miles or a total of 200 nautical miles from the coastline, and if there are space another 150 nautical miles. So the maximum that the state can claim under UNCLOS is 350 nautical miles.
    China is claiming more than 350 nautical miles. China is claiming Reed Bank which is about 800 nautical miles from Hainan. So the claim of China to waters within the nine-dash line beyond 350 nautical miles has no legal basis. That’s the ruling of the tribunal. Every state in the world, every coastal state can claim only up to 350 nautical miles—12 nautical miles territorial sea, 200 nautical miles EEZ measured from the coastline and an additional 150 nautical miles measured from the edge of the EEZ.
    That’s all—you cannot claim beyond that because that’s UNCLOS, that’s the law of the sea and so we were very confident that the tribunal would uphold us in our position that the nine-dash line has no legal basis at all to claim waters beyond what is allowed under UNCLOS. But our problem was, we knew that the problem would be, how to enforce the ruling.
    Because the Chinese people have been taught historical narrative that they own the South China Sea. And the Chinese government will not comply with the ruling because the Chinese people will say, why are you giving away territory that has been handed down to us by ancestors? These are sacred waters—sacred territory—sacred islands.
    So the Chinese government would not comply, otherwise, the Chinese people might throw them out. So we had to ask the tribunal, kindly rule on whether that historical narrative of China is true or false, whether there is factual basis for that historical narrative.
    Thankfully, the tribunal obliged—so we raised this issue. As a matter of fact, did China have historic rights? We’re talking of history now not a legal basis. So how did we convince the tribunal that China never had historic rights? Well, we presented over 170 ancient maps the most number of maps submitted in any international arbitration, and represented maps of the Chinese Dynasties which China cannot disown. We presented Philippine maps and maps of other Southeast Asian countries and represented European maps of Asia made by European cartographers. And we presented official documents of China after the Qing dynasty. 
    So let’s go to the maps. For the Philippines, I will present only one map the most important map of the Philippines. This is the 1734 Murillo Velarde map and this map is the first map to give a name to Scarborough and that name is Panacot.
    This is the first map that gave a name to Scarborough Shoal and that name is a Tagalog word Panacot. Why Panacot? Panacot means danger, if you are the captain of a ship and you don’t know where Panacot is, your ship could hit the rocks of Panacot and your ship will run the ground. And that is what happened to a British tea clipper ship called Scarborough it ran aground on the rocks of Panacot and the European cartographers renamed the shoal—Scarborough Shoal.
    China became a republic after the end of the Qing Dynasty, 1912 and as a republic, you must have a constitution and China had several constitutions. Their first constitution—Provincial Constitution in 1914,  defined their territory because you must define your territory in your constitution.
    The territory of the Republic of China continues to be the territory of the former empire the People›s Republic of China interpreted the former empire to refer to the Qing Dynasty territory. China made that declaration in China No. 2, History Archives, China International Press.
    Largest expansion of Chinese territory
    That’s in the 1980s because at that time China was trying to prove to the world that Tibet forms part of China and during the Qing Dynasty, Tibet was part of China.
    So China, according to the People’s Republic of China that published this, the former empire refers to the Qing Dynasty, because the Qing Dynasty was the largest expansion of Chinese territory in history.
    That was the largest expansion of Chinese territory.  It included Tibet. It included Xinyang.  But unfortunately for China, the southernmost territory of China during the Qing Dynasty was Hainan. So that is the constitution of China. Their territory is the territory of the Qing.  The territory of the Qing never went further south than Hainan.
    Territory ends at Hainan
    The next constitution of China, the constitution of 1924, the same. The territory of the Republic of China continues to be the traditional territory, which means the territory of the Qing. That territory ended in Hainan as the southernmost territory of China. 1937 constitution of China still the same, the territory of the Republic of China continues to be the territory it owned in the past. And their largest expansion was during the Qing dynasty.
    Jan. 1, 1947, the last constitution of China still the same, the territory of the Republic of China are those encompassed with traditional boundaries. In their own constitutions, China said our territory referred to the territory of the Qings–the Qing dynasty but that territory ended in Hainan.
    Humiliation
    China suffered what they called the century of national humiliation because starting in the 1820s toward until the end of the 1800s foreign powers from Europe and even Japan and Russia occupied territories of China. You have the British, you have the Portuguese. 
    The Chinese suffered a lot of humiliation. They were defeated in several wars with the European powers.  So their people drew maps, they called this map, “Map of China’s National Humiliation”. Their people said, “When China becomes strong again, we will recover all the territories that we lost to the foreign powers.”
    And they drew lines around China and said, we will recover everything within the lines. They included other territories that they never owned in the past.   They would get even Borneo—part of Borneo, they would get Cambodia, Vietnam.  These were drawn by private citizens. But it was circulated widely within China.
    In the map of the national humiliation of 1926, China never included the Spratlys or Scarborough.
    They never thought that they lost the Spratlys or Scarborough because they never thought they owned the Spratlys or Scarborough.  But you will see here they included the Sulu archipelago as part of the territory to be recovered.
    Sultan of Sulu
    Why? Because in 1417, the Sultan of Sulu, Sultan Paduka Batara left Sulu on a grand voyage to China. He brought with him his wife, his children, his large entourage and they sailed to China and brought gifts to the emperor. It was like a grand tour and probably he brought south sea pearls.
    And the Chinese saw it and they said, that Sultan is now a vassal of the emperor because he was given a tribute—he was giving a tribute to the emperor.   So they included the Sulu archipelago as part of the territory of China to be recovered. Because Sultan Paduka went there giving a gift but they interpreted it—the Chinese interpreted it, as a tribute as a vassal.
    It’s very dangerous to bring a gift to China, to the Chinese Emperor or Chinese leader, because they will consider that as a tribute and you become a vassal.  When you give something, you have to qualify and clarify that it’s just a gift it’s not a tribute.
    Later, Sulu was excluded
    Here is another Map of National Humiliation, the 1938 map. Thankfully, they excluded the Sulu archipelago but still, they never included the Spratlys or Scarborough Shoal. In their wildest dreams, they never thought that Spratlys or Scarborough should belong to them. They never included the Spratlys or Scarborough Shoal in their Maps of National Humiliation.
    This map was taught to elementary school children and that’s why the Chinese really believed that they owned the South China Sea, because this includes South China Sea.
    Now in 1943, while the civil war in mainland China was going on between the communists and the nationalists the Kuomintang—the Kuomintang was in control of the government and the Ministry of Information of the Republic of China at that time in 1943 published a handbook.  The Kuomintang was trying to introduce the Republic of China to the world so, they published a China handbook and of course if you introduce yourself to the world, you have to state your territory.
    In Chapter One of that handbook, China said, “Our territory extended to the parcel group, Triton Island is the southernmost territory.
    In that 1943 handbook, China never claimed the Spratlys or Scarborough Shoal. They said, “our southernmost territory is the Paracels. Their own document—official document–the handbook was revised in 1946, they published a revised edition of the book. And it is in this handbook, the 1946 handbook which was actually published in 1947 but it contains a supplement of 1946.
    Coral islands
    It is in this handbook that China claims sovereignty over the Spratlys, they call it the Coral Islands but at the same time, China admitted that the Coral Islands are contested among China, the Commonwealth of the Philippines, and the French in Indo-China.
    China did not claim indisputable sovereignty over the Spratlys; this is 1946. China said, yes we’re claiming the Spratlys but it’s also claimed by the Philippines, by the French in Vietnam, so they never claimed indisputable sovereignty.
    That’s the handbook 1940. It was released in 1947 but there is a 1946 supplement so you either call it 1946 or 1947. Published in New York because with the ongoing Civil War, they didn’t have a good printing press in China.
    Nine-dash line map published in 1947
    In 1947 China made this map, this is the infamous nine-dash line map and China circulated this internally among the Chinese government offices for validation.  In February of 1948, China released this domestically, in China. In this map, the nine-dash line map, China now gave a name to all the features in the Spratlys but they just copied the names in British charts.
    They did not give original names and they included Scarborough but they did not have a name for Scarborough Shoal.  We are now in 1947 and China still didn’t have a name for Scarborough Shoal. China used this China Sea Directory, published in 1906 by the UK and given the same names Luconia Shoal, that’s the British name, transliterated it to Chinese Lu-kang-ni-a. James Shoal transliterated it to Zengmu tan.
    Scarborough was originally Panacot
    So China just copied the British names; they were not the first to give names to the Spratlys and of course, in Scarborough we gave it a name in 1734, Panacot. The Europeans renamed it Scarborough Shoal after the Scarborough ship ran aground in 1748.
    1947: China still had no name to Scarborough Shoal.  If you go to the Spratlys in the Paracels you will see these sovereignty stone markers. These are stone markers which says, “China was here in 1901”. “China was here in 1902”.  The Chinese point to these markers as evidence that they own these islands.
    Totally fake markers
    These sovereignty markers in the Paracels in the Spratlys are totally fake.
    In 1987, the province of Guangdong published a book, a compilation of the names of all the islands in Nan Hai South Sea explaining why they named these islands the way they were named.
    This book has a very interesting Annex and Editor’s Note part of the book. As a background in 1937, June, China announced that China was sending this guy, Huang Qiang to the Paracels to check if the Japanese have established bases in the Paracels and to assert Chinese sovereignty over the Paracels, that was the announcement.
    But actually, Huang Qiang had this secret mission and he made a report of his secret mission, a confidential report of July 1 because he went there June so he wrote this report July the following month and in his report, he said, “I placed these stone markers in North Island it says they’re commemorating the inspection of 1902. In Woody Island, commemorating the inspection of 1911.
    Markers done in 1947 for 1901 inspection
    He  was planting these antedated stone markers in 1937 and he placed these markers in about 24 places in the Paracels.
    He was there in 1937, he was planting markers commemorating the inspection of 1901, so these are antedated.
    When China published the book—when the Guangdong province published this book, a lowly clerk saw this confidential report and decided to include it as an annex to the book.  The confidential report became part of the book, by mistake.
    I was alerted by a friend of mine Franco Javier Bonnet who has written extensively on the South China Sea, he’s a French scholar.
    He said, all of these stone markers in the Spratlys and in the Paracels are fake. So I said, I must have a copy of this book and so I asked a friend of mine who frequented Manila and Beijing on business to look for a copy of this book in secondhand bookstores in Beijing and he was able to secure to buy one copy.
    He scoured all the bookstores in Beijing and found one copy and I have that copy and this is a picture of that book and I guess I suppose that after we published this, the Chinese government I understand recalled all copies of the book.   This is a very rare book now.
    Fake markers
    The stone markers in the Paracels are fake and the Chinese cannot deny this because it’s there in their own publication. How about the stone markers in the Spratlys? On page 291 of the same book, there is an Editor’s note, that the stone tablets on two islands—West York Island and Spratlys Island might have been erected by the Taiwanese navy in 1956. Not in 1946 as the stone tablets indicate.
    The  stone tablets in West York Island says, “Erected in December 1946”. The stone tablet in the Spratly says “Erected in December 1946”.
    Where they really erected in 1946? In 1946, after the Japanese forces left, Itu Aba, the Kuomintang government sent a ship to the Spratlys, the Taiping.  It was a US ship donated to the Kuomintang and they renamed it Taiping.
    And the captain of the ship went only to Itu Aba and he planted the marker there, but he never went to West York Island in 1946. He never went to Spratly Island. When he saw the book saying that there are stone markers there in the Spratly Island and in West York Island planted in December 1946, he went to the editors of the book.
    The only genuine marker is in Itu Aba
    The editors of the book are professors in Guangdong universities and he said, “I was the captain of that ship that went to Itu Aba in 1946 in December. We never put up any stone tablets in West York Island or in Spratly Island, we put up one only in Itu Aba.”
    So the editors said, they placed a note, those stone tablets might have been erected by the Taiwanese navy in 1956, not in 1946.
    Why 1956? Because as I said, after the defeat of the Japanese forces in 1945, the Kuomintang took possession of Itu Aba in 1946, but they left Itu Aba in 1949-1950 because the Chiang Kai-shek forces, the nationalists, fled the mainland to Taiwan and Chiang Kai-shek recalled all the troops to help defend Taiwan against what they expected was a communist Chinese invasion of Taiwan.
    So they left and they returned only in 1956 as a Taiwanese navy now, that’s why the editors put that editor’s note and when they returned they probably erected those stone markers in West York Island and Spratly Island and put the date there, December 1946, antedated. It’s very clear those stone markers are totally fake.
    Now, just before we filed our case against China with the UNCLOS tribunal at The Hague, I visited the Chinese Manila website, the Chinese Embassy website in Manila and I saw this, in that website, this is the screenshot China said, “we were the first to discover Huangyan”. That’s Scarborough Shoal for them.
    In 1279, because in 1279, Guo Shoujing put up an observatory in Huangyan Island upon instruction of Kublai Khan.
    Guo Shoujing mission
    Guo Shoujing was the Leonardo da Vinci of China at that time. He was a brilliant mathematician, engineer, he was an astronomer and he built canals for China and Kublai Khan instructed him, make an accurate calendar because we want to know when the four seasons will end and start.
    Guo Shoujing put up observatories—astronomical observatories, 26 on mainland China and 1 in Nan Hai, 1 in the South Sea.
    Where in the South Sea did he put up his observatory?
    This screenshot says, the Chinese Embassy in Manila says, he put it up in Scarborough Shoal—Huangyan Island. However, in 1980 when Vietnam and China were quarreling over the sovereignty of the Paracels, the Vietnamese had very strong records—story records that they own the Paracels.
    China pulled a rabbit out of its hat and said, we have an older title to the Paracels because in 1279 Kublai Khan ordered Guo Shoujing to put up an observatory in the Paracels.
    Remember Kublai Khan put up 27 observatories—26 on mainland China and 1 in the South Sea were in 1980.  The Chinese were saying that was in Xisha or what is internationally called the Paracels and they published this in Beijing Review, official publication of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China.
    The astronomical observation point Nanhai was in today’s Xisha Islands that it shows that Xisha Islands will be in the bounds of China at the time of the Yuan dynasty.
    Paracels and Scarborough are 380 miles apart
    So they said Guo Shoujing put up the observatory in the Paracels. Today, the Chinese are saying Guo Shoujing put it up in Scarborough Shoal. The Paracels are 380 nautical miles away from Scarborough Shoal–it’s very far.
    The brilliant guy Guo Shoujing could not have made a mistake. If he put it up there in Paracels, he could not have put it up in Scarborough Shoal.
    Now, of the 26 observatories that Guo Shoujing put up in mainland China, one still exists today in Henan province and this is it—a huge 12.6 meter high. There’s a sundial here massive bricks could he have put it this observatory on the rocks of Scarborough Shoal.
    Now the rocks of Scarborough Shoal are very small maybe three meters high above water at high tide. Maybe at most 10 people can stand on it. Could he have put it here. If you superimpose the astronomical observation point in Henan it would look like that.
    He could not have placed it there, impossible. So legally China cannot now say that Guo Shoujing put up the observatory in Scarborough Shoal because they used that argument against the Vietnamese in 1980.
    Physically, it’s also impossible; they could not have put it up there. 
    So the (Hague) tribunal said China never had historic rights in the South China Sea. They cannot identify—the tribunal is unable to identify any evidence that would suggest that China historically regulated or controlled fishing in the South China Sea.
    Scarborough Shoal—huge 150 square kilometers in the area. Now, who owns Scarborough Shoal? We all know that in the Treaty of Paris of 1898, Spain ceded the Philippines to the US for $20 million. 
    The Treaty of Paris contained these lines—the treaty lines of the Treaty of Paris and Spain ceded to the US everything within the lines for $20 million. Unfortunately, Scarborough Shoal is outside the line. The Spratlys are outside the lines, a big problem for us.
    So Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in his lecture at CSIS in Washington in February of 2016 before diplomats from all over the world said, the Philippine territory is regulated by three treaties—the Treaty of Paris of 1898, the Treaty of Washington of 1900, and the treaty of 1930 with the British.
    And there is a line in those treaties everything to the East was ceded but to the West, they were not ceded and Wang Yi said, Nansha the Spratlys and Huangyan Scarborough Shoal are all in the West of 118 degrees, they are outside the treaty lines.
    So the Philippines does not own these islands. So how do we answer that? We answer that by going to the second treaty of Washington of 1900. After signing the Treaty of Paris the Americans came here and they found out there were many islands outside the treaty lines.
    In the Batanes, we have the Scarborough Shoal, and then Sulu archipelago, Mapun Island, Turtle Island—they were all outside the treaty lines. So they went back to the Spaniards they said, hey let’s clarify there are still many islands outside the treaty lines can we clarify that these islands were also, ceded to us?
    And the Spaniards said, no we will not sign. And the Americans said, we will pay you an additional $100,000 and the Spaniard said, yes we will sign.
    Treaty of Washington shows Scarborough belongs to PH
    So the Treaty of Washington was signed and Spain clarified that it had all relinquished to the US “all titles and claims of title which (Spain) may have had at the time of the conclusion of the Treaty of Peace of Paris, to any and all islands belonging to the Philippine Archipelago, lying outside the lines”.
    Any and all islands belonging to the Philippine Archipelago lying outside the lines are also ceded to the US for an additional $100,000.  The Treaty of Washington is actually the more important treaty because it includes all islands belonging to the Philippine Archipelago within or outside the treaty lines.
    So the question is, what are the islands belonging to the Philippine Archipelago lying outside the lines? What is our frame of reference in locating these islands? It says, any and all islands lying outside of the treaty lines belonging to the Philippine Archipelago.
    Murillo Velarde map
    What is our frame of reference? The 1734 Pedro Murillo Velarde map because this is the official Philippine territory under the Spanish regime and this is what they have ceded to the Americans under the treaty of Washington and the Treaty of Paris and that includes of course Scarborough Shoal and the Spratlys.
    This map is still alive today. This map determines our territory—territory that was ceded by Spain to the US and which is now our territory as the Republic of the Philippines. (see pages 14-15, 1734 map)
    So we have to go back to this map that’s why when this map was auctioned off because there’s no copy of this map in our public libraries and when a copy of this map was being auctioned in Sotheby’s I asked the public librarie—the national museum–the private museums, if they can bid for it, they were not interested.
    And the public government on museums didn’t have the budget for it so I asked a friend to bid for it and if he wins—to sell it at a cost to the government because I want a copy of this map in the National Library so that schoolchildren—when they see this map you don’t have to explain to them.
    Scarborough Shoal is part of Philippine territories in 1734. The Spratlys are part of Philippine territory since 1734. So he bidded for the map and fortunately, he won and he has donated it because the government offices—the National Library, National Museum don’t have this in their budget.
    My friend just decided to donate it to the National Library. So it’s been donated to the National Library.
    Now, before the ruling came out, China claimed this shaded area. When the tribunal said, the nine-dash lines have no legal effect, so immediately you have high seas in the South China Sea about 20-25% of the South China Sea of high seas and all-around that. You have the Exclusive Economic Zone of the Philippines, this could belong only to the Philippines.
    Because it’s only the Philippines, that is the adjacent coastal state and this is the EEZ of Malaysia in Sabah, EEZ of Brunei, EEZ of Malaysia again in the other part of Sabah, the EEZ of Indonesia in the Natunas, the EEZ of Vietnam, and the EEZ of China.
    Automatically you have high seas and exclusive economic zones around those sizes. This area the shaded area in red is what we won. How big is that? That’s as big as larger than the Philippine national territory—the land territory.
    These three depths are still disputed because they are rocks above water at high tide between the Philippines and China that’s still in dispute because the tribunal has no jurisdiction over territorial issues. Only jurisdiction over maritime issues.
    So we won an area of 376,000 square kilometers in the South China Sea, free from any Chinese claim. This is larger than our total land area. If you put all our islands together, you get only 300,000 square kilometers. We won an area—maritime space—larger than our total land area and we own everything within this huge maritime area—all the fish, oil, gas, and other mineral resources.
    Maritime zones
    Now, there are maritime zones under UNCLOS assuming this is Palawan, you have a territorial sea of 12 nautical miles from the low watermark. From the edge of the territorial sea, you measure 188 nautical miles. You have the EEZ (exclusive economic zone) and from here, you have the high seas, this is our extended continental shelf. This is the area belonging to mankind, but the point here is that, from the edge of the territorial sea-ward, there is freedom of navigation and overflight.
    Civilian aircraft, military aircraft, civilian vessel, a military vessel, can sail and fly in this area without getting the consent of the coastal state because there’s freedom of navigation for all countries of the world.
    So when the ruling came out, the US said, we will sail and fly in the South China Sea. France said we will also sail and fly. We will ask our European neighbors to join us in a regular patrol in the South China Sea. The British said we will do the same, when our two aircraft carriers are finished we will sail them in the South China Sea.
    Australia said we will continue to sail and fly in the South China Sea. Now, the tribunal made a specific finding on Mischief Reef—the tribunals said, we find Mischief Reef is a low tide elevation. It’s submerged at high tide—so it’s low tide—you can see it only at low tide–and therefore, Mischief Reef has no territorial sea and cannot be owned because it’s beyond the territorial sea of any state and it forms part of the exclusive economic zone of the Philippines.
    Ruling on Mischief Reef
    There is a clear categorical ruling by the tribunal that Mischief Reef has no territorial sea, no territorial airspace, it’s part of the exclusive economic zone of the Philippines. And as part of the exclusive economic zone of the Philippines, it can only be exploited by the Philippines. Only the Philippines can put up structures there if China still there now, China is there as a squatter.
    Now, that’s Mischief Reef—huge it’s totally submerged at high tide in its natural state before the reclamation by China. Today, three-kilometer military-grade runway, barracks for thousands of marines, you have radars structures there, entry and exit for warships, and submarines.
    That’s the runway in Mischief Reef any jet fighter here can reach Manila in less than 20 minutes. Can reach part of Princesa in less than 10 minutes. The radar here can monitor any aircraft that lands or takes off in Puerto Princesa or in the entire Palawan area.
    This one—airbase and naval base—is both an air naval base. The Chinese call this, their Pearl Harbor in the South China Sea. This is a dagger pointed at us because, this Mischief Reef air naval base of China will be used by China to enforce the nine-dash line as China’s national boundary.
    When the ruling came out, the Americans decided to test. Because the ruling said, Mischief Reef has no territorial sea. The US sailed this ship Zig-Zag because if this were a territorial sea, this ship should sail straight line—continuous without stopping.
    But to show to the Chinese here in Mischief Reef, that this is not a territorial sea because it’s an artificial island. The Zig-Zag, they conducted man overboard operations, they sent a lot of their drones to prove so they are they were actually enforcing the ruling for us.
    And this ship, the USS Giffords sale there on Nov. 18,  2019, the same way to show to the Chinese that this is not a territorial sea. They were enforcing the ruling and this plane, the US Poseidon which can detect submarines that are submerged and can drop torpedoes from the air, flew over Mischief Reef.
    And this was the conversation between the Chinese ground controller and the US aircraft. The Chinese gun controller said, “leave immediately to avoid any misunderstanding.” The US aircraft said, “we are conducting lawful military activities beyond the national airspace of any coastal state.”
    This is not a territorial airspace, we can fly here, because there’s freedom of overflight, this is part of the EEZ of the Philippines. So, the Americans were enforcing the ruling for us, not because they love us, but because it’s in their national interest to protect their sea lanes. Remember the $5.2 trillion trade of shipborne goods that traverse the South China Sea every year.
    Over a trillion of that is US trade inbound and outbound trade. They have to maintain freedom of navigation and overflight. The French—they have two naval ships that continuously sail in the South China Sea because they want to maintain a naval presence in all exclusive economic zones, because in the exclusive economic zones their freedom of navigation.
    The British—they have two naval ships also sailing continuously in the South China Sea because they want an unbroken presence in the South China Sea. Because they want the rules to preserve the integrity of the rules-based international system. That’s the code word for the ruling, they want to enforce the ruling without saying that we›re enforcing the ruling there.
    It’s a euphemism for them, integrity of the rules-based international system. The Japanese have two helicopter carriers every year they alternate in sailing in the South China Sea. This dock in Subic, the last time it was here, I visited it and I asked the captain of the ship, wherein the South China Sea did you sail? And he answered, in the West Philippine Sea.
    Philippine EEZ
    That’s our EEZ. What did you do in the Philippine EEZ? He said we sent aloft this helicopter, that’s military activity. They were telling China, this is an exclusive economic zone of a coastal state and we have freedom of navigation here.
    The Indians, every year they send a naval task force in the South China Sea to assert freedom of navigation. The Canadians do the same every year to preserve to assert freedom of navigation. So all these naval powers actually enforce the ruling for us because they are showing to the Chinese that these are exclusive economic zones or high seas.
    Remember, China refuses to accept that there are exclusive economic zones in the South China Sea within the nine-dash line. These naval patrols of the naval powers rebut that forcefully. All this freedom of navigation of flight operations is directed at China. This is not your waters, these are high seas or exclusive economic zones of other coastal states, and therefore we can sail here.
    What to do now?
    What should we, as Filipinos do now? We should encourage all the navies of the world to sail in the South China Sea and in particular in the West Philippine Sea so that they will enforce the ruling.
    Also, we should ask our neighbors Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Brunei to help us explain to the Chinese people that China never had historic rights in the South China Sea it’s totally false and all of us in ASEAN should educate the world that China never had historic rights in the South China Sea.
    All these claims of China under the nine-dash line is totally false. We should continue resorting to the rule of law because we have no other choice. Why don’t we have a choice? Well, our Constitution says, we renounce war as an instrument of national policy and we cannot enforce the ruling by going to war. We have to use the rule of law and also the UN Charter prohibits war as a means or use of force or threat of force as a means of settling territorial or maritime disputes.
    War or use of force or threat of force has been outlawed under the UN charter and under our own Constitution, what is the power of the president? Can the president declare war? No, he cannot even declare war. The power of the president is limited to calling the armed forces in case of invasion, but he cannot direct an aggression against another state it’s not one of his powers, only if there is an invasion can we call it the armed forces.
    The power to declare war is lodged in Congress by two-thirds of both Houses in joint session assembled, voting separately shall have the sole power to declare the existence of a state of war.
    That’s our Constitution, so we must fight this battle with China. We must preserve our sovereign rights in the West Philippine Sea through the rule of law.

  15. https://amp.dw.com/en/next-major-war-will-be-very-different-pentagon-chief/a-57395358

    ..Amid concerns about China’s rapid military modernization and aggressive rise, Austin warned that the US military cannot be satisfied with believing it has the world’s strongest and most capable armed forces— “not at a time when our potential adversaries are very deliberately working to blunt our edge.”

    The Pentagon chief did not mention China by name. However, in another speech, the outgoing commander of the US Indo-Pacific Command Adm. Philip Davidson repeated his assertion that China is using “pernicious” behavior to challenge US dominance in the region.

    Davidson has been outspoken over his concerns that Beijing could potentially try to take Taiwan by force within several years.

    Defense analysts have noted that China has sped up its construction of a wide range of sophisticated weaponry in recent years and has displayed more aggressive behavior in its claims over disputed areas of the South China Sea.

    The US, on the other hand, has been focused for two decades on combatting extremist groups like al-Qaida in Afghanistan and, more recently, the “Islamic State” (IS) group in Iraq and Syria..

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