When we stop being opposed, can we build something for a change?

Analysis and Opinion

By JoeAm

Opposition to President Duterte is creating some strange happenings. For one thing, people who helped him for five years suddenly grew integrity, or a conscience, and started pointing fingers at him. Or a different way to express their opportunism, more likely. Then, amusingly enough, we have Trillanes and Colmenares on the same team, which is a lot like AFP troops joining NPA in the mountain village fiesta.

Well, from this we can figure out that things are about to change. A little or a lot. We’ll know next May.

I do agree there is a lot to be against. The Administration’s hostility toward Filipinos and affection for mainlanders, for one thing. The brutal drug war that has not found any big-time drug lords but killed thousands. The botched handling of the covid fight, from testing to vaccines. Corruption galore. Incivility that degrades what it means to be Filipino. Where’s the dignity in Duterte?

I suspect a lot of those will be dealt with on Day 1 when De Lima is released. Or not released. And Duque is fired. Or not fired. And Go and Yang are jailed. Or not jailed. And the ICC is invited in. Or not invited in.

On Day 2, the building should start though. Reconstruction, I suppose. My wish list would include:

  • Get education back on track.
  • Tighten up the covid fight.
  • Return police to blue uniforms.
  • Get a real infrastructure program going.
  • Get tourism fired up.
  • Invite China out of the WPS under penalty of confiscation of her assets in the Philippines.
  • Define ethical rules for lawyers and lawmakers; get them back to building.

That’s just the beginning. Climate change is real. Prepare for it. Develop industry, tech or military works. Figure out if casinos fit tourism or are too ‘dirty’ to work with. Get agribusiness and fishing back on their feet and managed properly. Build a vaccine production plant so we don’t have to do this again.

  • Build integrity.
  • Build intelligence.
  • Build infrastructure.
  • Build jobs and wealth.
  • Build security.

Yes, Day 2 will be just as important as Day 1.


Photograph: “Sunrise in Mount Pulag” by FranzZeph, via TripZilla.ph

96 Responses to “When we stop being opposed, can we build something for a change?”
  1. I guess exactly this can-do spirit, this sense of possibility that above article exudes is what the Philippines needs. There is for me exactly one possible leader who has that can-do, optimistic against-all-odds spirit in the Philippines. And who keeps inspiring people and who keeps people at the center of things. But I do wonder if she will dare run in a country stuck looking back – as MLQ3 mentioned in a 2019 article – and in a country obsessed mostly with blame instead of taking charge and getting stuff done. Of course some people will have to take responsibility for their misdeeds, within the wise limits of the law. One of the first things needed on Day 2 is an overhaul of the legal and penal system to something more modern and effective, and there is one woman now in jail who is capable of doing it, maybe even faster than her first attempt. Of course Filipinos will have to vote proper Senators and Congressmen as well to support all those efforts. Proper modern legislation is needed including the shelved 2014 Criminal Code Draft.

    I am not holding my breath though on 1) VP Leni running 2) Filipinos finally letting go of resentment and getting into a can-do mindset that elected can-do people and 3) a Supreme Court stacked by patronage finally becoming a true guardian of the law.

    Your optimism and not giving up on the Philippines is admirable. I cannot say the same for myself actually. Hope is still there though, I fortunately have not yet come to pity the Philippines as a nation that blew all the changes it was given, again and again in history.

    • Posting this long Twitter thread by Carlos Jugo who summarizes how the Philippines more or less got from 1971 to 2021 to give some context to all of this.

    • Karl Garcia says:

      I can not give up on the Phillippines
      I will be discourage if Leni will not run, but I am here to stay.
      Also as long as TSOH welcomes me here, I am also here to stay.
      I hope I won’t deevolve to an undesirable commenter.

    • JoeAm says:

      My attitude pretty much mirrors yours, not particularly optimistic. But that does not mean I can’t climb up to the moral pulpit and preach in hopes that someone influential might be in the congregation taking notes.

      • JoeAm says:

        I’d add that all the craziness going on in the US, and chempo passing by to spew a little of the stuff, means that greener pastures are turning brown, making this side of the pond look a little less dismal.

        • I really hope Germany doesn’t get more infected by the madness in places like the US, Brexit UK, Hungary, Poland etc etc especially as our main defense WAS Merkel and we have Federal Elections today. Let’s just see.

          And of course those of you who are over there like Karl and yourself have the prime responsibility of trying what you can to make those pastures greener, just like we over here will have a struggle to keep our pastures green in the coming at least 4 years.

          • Given the results of todays election, does that mean karl’s MMT article below is in effect now? how about cyber currency in the EU? I believe Frankfurt is your NYC , what’s the buzz there?

            I gotta feeling if this France submarine thing can be used as canary, NATO will shrink and the English speaking nations will consolidate and form a proper organization, maybe invite Poland, for some reason the Polish military really works well with American military weird, but i doubt they’ll have anything significant to contribute save their special ops.

            Any talks of inviting Cyber Ninjas there post election? I read its pretty close.

            • Karl Garcia says:


              The Seven Years’ War (1756–1763) was a global conflict, “a struggle for global primacy between Britain and France”, which also had a major effect on the Spanish Empire.[13]

              Seven years war reinvented?

              • France is done, and Germany is done. Once the Scandanavian countries decide, Vikingland for Vikings. The rest of Europe falls. Or simply becomes another ‘stan country.

                English speaking nations will consolidate, UK (and eventually Ireland will forgive the English ) thus will simply face west, close down borders with continent. US and Canada (Canada knows the US is their southern border just like our southern border should be Mexico, hence they can afford to say things like bring me your tired and your poor, and yada yadah, all rhetoric their immigration laws are actually akin to Australia and NZ), .

                Which brings us to ANZAC, they’ve already taken over Hollywood, so getting US military bases (with Canada and UK) in northern Australia and parts of NZ should not be a problem.

                Alliances will be language based, Singapore speaks English will stay with US. The Scandanavians are pretty English friendly (they talk good English) , with Denmark onboard we’ll have to do something about Greenland.

                As to Finland, I don’t really know what to make of them. They’ll be the Arctic Switzerland.

                India speaks English. The Gulf States and KSA too. I see more English speakers eventually as the lines will be English vs. Chinese. Koreans and Japanese will be better English speakers.

                Have you ever seen a Chinese keyboard, karl. Not very conducive to typing, so they’ll come up with a more voice activated internet. or imagery based i dunno. symbols too complicated, invent the alphabet already! welcome to modernity, LOL!

                j/k!!! that’s not a racist joke, but definitely linguistic one! LOL, here’s the article: https://www.digmandarin.com/how-to-type-in-chinese.html

              • Karl Garcia says:

                These are the the two most important keys.

      • There are not only vicious cycles, virtuous cycles also exist.

        Better than just giving up especially for you who live there.

        • kasambahay says:

          filipinos dont always give up, we just change course and adapt, put on hold what must be put on hold for the rainy days. we detour albeit grudgingly, then get back on track.

          we dont always get what we want but does that not stop us from trying again and again until we get a satisfactory semblance. a better outcome.

          many are pinning their hopes on leni coming forward to lead our nation besieged from within. she is still hoping to unite the opposition vs the present admin this coming election. but unity is illusive and power has blindsided candidates. and leni is probly getting used to the idea that she is the only opposition, the rest are duterte’s satellites.

          and trillanes is starting to piss me off, so impatient! I bet a full glass of suntory he’ll stage a coup vs leni, if leni as president cannot mobilize the reform in the amount of time trillanes so wanted.

          • Karl Garcia says:

          • kasambahay says:

            instead of being impatient and seething, trillanes ought to think of better ways to be popular and unforgettable, and entertain his audience, his previous pushup exercises is getting a bit staid. move those hips, trilly, and dance the rumba! show those fancy footwork. those ‘too much talking’ candidates are hugging the microphone, blah, blah blah pa more, but if trilly dances, all eyes will be on him, lol! dance as though he’s rodulf nureyev. yan baga is better than hiring entertainers. save him some money too. virile and agile, aba, marami ang naglalaway sa kanya, lol! can he play sax like bill clinton? guitar?

            seriously, ‘too much talks’ candidates are digging their own graves. some are are getting inconsistent and contradict themselves.

            duterte given generic job? right, he can report for work at any generic times of both day and night, outside office hours included, lucky if he turns up at all! he can work at generic locations too, in bed inside kulambo, in his generic pajamas for use of both men and women, and animals and beasts. generic job and his productivity is generic as well, measurable in generic ways. his pay is generic and can be paid in coins and tansan and he eats generic too, fish bones and serviettes included.

            • JoeAm says:

              Sonny Trillanes is like the Lone Ranger, doing it his way, straight arrow all the way, no Tonto around to keep him from wandering out into the desert. He’s the only true opposition other than Robredo, Roxas and no-names. He’d be stern as President. The Philippines could do a lot worse.

              • mundski says:

                Totally agree. Just imagine what Trillanes would do if he wins the presidency jackpot. I was hoping 1sambayan nominates him initially. If not for the troll armies that hounded his rep for years and years. BUt i do agree he can join in the dance once in a while, show his relaxed state, I saw him trying tiktok and instagram, he could do more, just enough to cast some light against all the darkness thrown upon him, which in effect left him misunderstood. People should realize arrogance is fine, and his isn’t even at the level of Duterte’s arrogance, as long as you’re on the right side of things. I think his deadline for Leni is a way of putting pressure on her, it’s his way of “encouraging” i guess

              • kasambahay says:

                can the stern man also be a well rounded man, has a soft side and fun side, and not altogether an angry young man?

                trillanes is his own best cheerleader. and if he wants the presidency bad enough, he’ll go through the all hoops on higher level this time. the stakes are higher, what worked for him before may not be enough now, he has to spread himself more, farther afield, let the nation see the entirety of him, not just a magdalo of yesteryears but an exciting citizen of today’s world. he needs to sweat! work hard, not just talk hard.

                all candidates talk hard, promise hard, sell hard, that’s election. trillanes has to do more than talk just hard, he has to ‘act’ hard to sell himself.

                dont want to make a fool of himself? I think, he already did! so back it up, shrug it off! rumba! he has already made an entrance, now he has to make his own space.

              • kasambahay says:

                kung ako si trillanes, I’ll forget leni at the moment and prepare myself for the campaign ahead. and not hold out to leni, or trillanes will end up blaming leni.

                trillanes needs to concentrate on himself, focus on himself. leni can win the presidency, can trillanes win the vice presidency? prepare to embark on a campaign like trillanes is already a presidential candidate, fine tune all his people skills, plan his speeches, etc.

                if later on, trillanes must give way to leni, he can easily adjust his state of preparedness, he is dexterous enough for the job. he’s magdalo.

    • NHerrera says:

      Yes, we will know the local terrain after May 2022, but we have to do what has to be done to nudge that terrain. Sort of downsizing our expectations but not giving up on real efforts towards something better. This amidst big constraints/ environment — a local socio-economic-cultural propensity, climate change, a never-ending struggle against deadly diseases, wide-spread war with or without the use of nuclear weapons. [I wonder which will knock out the human species first. Forgive this last morbid thought. I thought of deleting it but decided to let it stay.]

      • kasambahay says:

        my friends are saying it’s common and normal for older people to have morbid thoughts mostly concerning end of life. they are at that stage where the afterlife is coming nearer and closer. the mind and body seems to be preparing the olds for what is to come, slowing down and detaching from society, the inevitable ending.

        what is not okay is for younger people to have the same morbid thoughts as older people. younger people are on threshold of life, so many things to discover, to enjoy, land jobs, buy houses and own properties, to fall in love, get married and have children, travel the world, etc.


  2. “Figure out if casinos fit tourism or are too ‘dirty’ to work with.”


    If prostitution is pretty much encouraged in the Philippines,

    and sex tourism brings in money– this is both from outside money import and also prostitution by way of OFW export (ie. in Singapore, HK, the Gulf states). Overall prostitution. Then another vice, namely gambling should be seriously considered, and there are already casinos there big and small.

    On Mactan island for example. You have one big one near the airport (Joe’s been there), but there are a couple of surrounding smaller casinos (on the same island) that specifically for Koreans. They seem official, just smaller and a more homogenous clientele. Maybe there are more like now it but for Chinese , i dunno.

    But the prostitution world and the gambling world (unless its underground i suppose) don’t generally mix. Again for example in the Philippines on Mactan island that big casino is visited by tourists and rich Filipinos, its classy. Unlike in Vegas where a prostitute can flirt with you whilst you play, 90% of Filipina prostitutes will be obvious in a casino setting.

    The other 10% (actually lesser) can pass for what Filipinos call sosyal meaning they are light skinned with nose bridge, Chinese looking a plus too.

    My argument here is that any argument against casinos on grounds of increasing vice, the two worlds … prostitution and gambling in the Philippines don’t mix. They only come together in hotel rooms, but if the hotel has a strict policy enforced on visitors that go to the rooms, this too can be curbed.

    Which brings us to Micha’s argument, which I’ll re-visit from three blogs ago, here: https://joeam.com/2021/08/29/guesses-are-not-knowledge-theyre-bets/#comment-439508


    A “casino economy” is a pejorative term. It is used to refer to the ways and means of Wall Street financial institutions which basically suck money from the real economy. A giant squid octopus as Taibbi puts it.

    Wall Street firms are not doing anything productive, they are merely giant sucking machines – electro parasites feeding on the hard work and productivity of the laboring class.

    Yes, I do understand that casinos tend to win, thus why said industry is profitable. Like gov’t sanctioned lotteries here in the states (Powerball will be at $550 Million dollars come Monday, which means I’m spending $2 for a chance at my dreams, Micha). That $550 pot is sucking money from the real economy, everyone knows this, and everyone participates, well for me I only buy when it reaches $500 Million generally– but most lottery addicts spend upwards of $100 + dollars a week.

    Lotteries are less complicated than casinos, remember w/out sweepstakes Dr. Jose Rizal would not have been able to purchase some prime real estate in Dapitan. But similar profitability.

    In casinos, there’s slot machines, and blackjack tables and other pure chance games, then theres Pai-Gaw and Poker that require some skill to play, meaning luck isn’t the main factor.

    There s a bunch of these skill based players that have made a living because of Vegas. In essence , you can be a “professional” gambler. Just like Pacquiao improved his lot via boxing (and gambling essentially), many Filipinos too can partake.

    A literal casino – the ones you advocate for in Boracay – operates on the same sucking scheme. A casino operator sucks money from the gullible in a legalized mobster operation. Accurate accounting for taxable revenue is highly suspect because the operator could always wine and dine the local tax collector and make a deal.

    So, Micha, your argument that casinos only prey on the gullible is wrong. You can say most, sure, but then most who are gullible do so for the fun, people in casinos, lights flickering, the noise, etc. All that to many who lose in Vegas is the point and the source of fun. Which i know is kinda stupid, but gullibility vs. fun. Like donating to televangelists, i suppose, makes people happy.

    Which leaves us only with your Wall Street is Las Vegas analogy.

    I’ve already explained how democratizing Vegas is, and lately because of sites like Robinhood (Game stop fiasco), regular people are now partaking in Vegas as well as in Wall Street. Instead of insider trading and analyses done by Ivy league types, the Robinhood website is more crowd source, meaning they just follow the memes like Dogecoin and screw with Wall street thus.

    And are able to game the system like a flock of small birds, or crows in Hitchcock’s the Birds.

    Where your sanctimonious socialist arguments fail, these regular folks are co-opting from within. So just like you have “professional” gamblers in casinos, some 17 year old with a gaming rig and a Robinhood account can both be gaming and play Wall street at the same time. And racking bank.

    So you’re wrong, gambling (of all types) can provide an out for people in the dredges. That is the wider point here.

    Thus creating something from nothing.

    That part I’ve argued against with chempo and supported your position on MMT on that matter; but on the matter of it being profitable for the little guy— I’ll always support the little guy. Cuz I’m one.

    And just like a circle, prostitutes in the Philippines can also profit because those girls can play some mean card games. Tong its. Teach ’em poker and the sky is the limit, then before you know it they’ll have Robinhood accounts and take on Wall Street from Mango Ave.

    Now that’s a beautiful thought, Micha. Though I’ll be the first to admit MMT and UBI are better ideas in macro-. But AOC i’m sure will agree with me , on principle, for the little guys.

    In conclusion, Joe, et al , nope casinos are not too dirty to work with. think also of all the banking and site security improvements ala Vegas that will be the side effect of said industry.

    As for the current blog. I do believe Inday Sara will cover day 1 and day 2 accordingly. For sure, though D5 will remain shut out. Politics is like gambling, you gotta lick your index finger and point to the sky and feel where the wind blows.

    • Micha says:

      DU30 and his looting sycophants were trying to justify the building of casino in Boracay as a source of revenue for covid fund which, considering that it’s a national gov’t official doing the scavenging, is a pathetic way of doing the business of governance, assuming good faith.

      If he wants real money, he should look at congress.

      But, methinks all that casino-for-revenue charade is just smoke and mirrors to cover their behind for the stinking corruption they routinely commit.

    • JoeAm says:

      I’m pro-casino myself, properly regulated, not like pogos. I think there is a huge market for it in Asia, and it fits with fun-in-the-sun as a tourism umbrella. Like Vegas. But I have to acknowledge there are opponents who see the vices first and not the jobs.

      • Micha says:

        A casino project is more aptly in the interest of a provincial or city/municipal gov’t. The national gov’t should not stick its nose in such mundane revenue generating scheme because it is already monetarily sovereign. It should instead concentrate on the macro side of things, like what kind of real productive economy we should be having.

      • kasambahay says:

        for me, jobs in boracay casino is just a bait, so the heavy weights of vices can sneak in with all trumpets blaring. along with heavy borrowings from overseas again, considering our nation is short of funds. as with pharmally, we can expect the same shenanigans happening again, prices of building materials skyrocketing faster than tesla could orbit earth, the passage of building permit ‘greased’ off for ease, corners cut here and there considerably.

        we would have no problems with covid funds, buying vaccines, and saving lives, if only duterte’s allies have not been uber busy lining their own bottomless pockets! their greed is limitless! no wonder duterte wants casino built in boracay, his allies moreso. yes, please.

        it’s vegas’ fortune they dont have duterte and his allies in resident there. only visiting shooter with high powered guns.

  3. Micha says:

    “Invite China out of the WPS under penalty of confiscation of her assets in the Philippines.”

    Interesting you should say that because two foreign policy experts argue that China is already a declining power which, like Germany in the early 20th century, would trash about and engage in destructive war while it still thinks it has marginal chance of winning.


    • Karl Garcia says:

      But China thinks one day QUAD will self destruct or implode.But the author of the aticle says that is to hide distress.


    • Micha says:

      China has managed to surround itself with hostile powers : Japan, India, Australia, and the ASEAN group re WPS. It is very good in antagonizing its own neighbors.

      The US/UK/Australia alliance is a formidable foe.

      • kasambahay says:

        there might be a bit of a problem, the newest govt in taiwan is pro-china and now wants better relationship with china.

        the pro-west taiwan president lost in the very recent election, I hope he wont be put in prison and tried in china. or he could jump ship and seek asylum.

      • Karl Garcia says:

        Yes if Quad can involve Asean thst would make us secure as in not insecure.

        That prp chinese Taiwan president elect maybe gooď or bad for us. The US may rechannel military support to other ASEAN members including PH

        • kasambahay says:

          if no money has changed hands, maybe taiwan’s purchase of military hardware from america can be put on hold, until such a time a less threatening govt is in place. kasi with taiwan’s pro chinese stand, it will be easy for the big brasses in china to come and inspect the american military hardwares.

          I trust joe biden has some trick up his sleeves, and not enrich more china’s military capabilities. but if the taiwan’s purchase is already locked stocked and barreled, joe biden can take precedent from austalia and get out of the deal. due to unforeseen circumstances, the reason given.

  4. Karl Garcia says:

    Everytime I retweet something about MMT, some Europeans react. They are into it.


  5. Lita Guiao says:

    The post suggests an Isko Presidency. My take.

    • Karl Garcia says:

      I think that was the other post Lita.
      I see Joe’s posts on twitter and FB that points out Isko’s bad decisions

      • JoeAm says:

        If Lito thinks this post favors Isko, then he favors Isko and is feeding the post into that framework. I think Moreno upset a lot of people with some of his recent remarks, keeping De Lima in jail, accepting Duterte on his cabinet, etc.

        • Are there any candidates or potential candidates demanding D5 out of jail and/or campaigning on this?

            • Well, i guess the follow up question is,

              how can Isko be dinged for that, if no one is doing it?

              • NHerrera says:

                Lance, this is nitpicking. But I am uncomfortable with the logic here.

                Suppose Isko said I will let my children play with cow dung. Then it does not need even a single person to say I will not let my children play with cow dung — for Isko to deserve being dinged.

                And so is the case of Isko’s statement on D5, a logical parallel.

              • “I think Moreno upset a lot of people with some of his recent remarks, keeping De Lima in jail, “

                I see you’re point, NH. and you’re right.

                But my point is , the people that Joe mentioned as upset, well they have to post up their own candidate who’ll say the opposite, ie. D5 out of jail.

                Absent of that, you have that old precept that beggars can’t be choosers . Thus cannot be too upset w/ Isko.

                But the bigger dilemma here is that D5 (all pun intended, ie. opposing lemmas) is not important enough for any candidates to fight over , especially on principle. I can understand Inday Sara not wanting D5 out.

                Certainly Isko, won’t want her out, its too much hassle, at least not during campaigning.

                But VP Leni should be yelling and screaming about this issue, get D5 out of jail, if she is truly the saint she is made out to be. That’s why i’m surprised with Joe’s short answer.

                I don’t care for D5, see that finger pointing above, but VP Leni must make D5 her banner.

                But I suggest she wait for Inday Sara to throw her candidacy first, then VP Leni can after, just like DU30 in 2015, waited til a believe Christmas time?

                Then they get associated w/ baby Jesus, and gifts. Throw in D5, and that’s a good contrast, save D5 vs. stay D5 (in jail).

              • JoeAm says:

                The horses are approaching the gate. They are not yet running the race. A few of the jockeys are drunk. Isko is listing right.

              • JoeAm says:

                And the answer is, the campaign has not yet begun.

        • Karl Garcia says:

          OK Joe.

  6. felix g zamar jr says:

    Resuscitate a more pro active Filipino friendly Moral Recovery Program that could bring out the best and authentic Filipino values not just among public servants but to all citizens of good will. There is a need for more effective story tellers that could show and tell what positive practices principles and tenets in life that are common and prevalent in Filipino communities.

  7. NHerrera says:

    Inquirer columnist Joel Ruiz Butuyan wrote an article, “The defeat of the trolls,” yesterday. It may be true in, say, Twitter and Facebook (?) [the latter, I do not do], but I wonder if the masa shares that sentiment. Does the TSH-world even share that sentiment?


    Prior to the arrival of COVID-19, trolls were having their heyday. Fact-checking groups like Vera Files and Rappler had their hands full warning the public of a stream of false stories peddled by trolls.

    Then came the pandemic. It forced tens of millions of Filipinos to be restrained in their homes, limiting them to interact through cyberspace. The atmosphere got spiced up with a government that committed blunder after blunder and acts and omissions that worsened the health and economic crisis brought by the deadly virus. People vented their anger on social media. In no time, the creative juices that flow in the veins of Filipinos turned expressions of anger and frustration into biting, scorching, yet also comical and amusing, expressions of dissent. An ever growing tide of real people are now creating memes, inventing maxims, and posting hilarious graphics that strip ruling leaders of respectability and instead portray them as bungling clowns and inept shysters. The crude output of trolls has been no match to the imaginative inventions of real people who have been provoked in anger. The comparison is similar to pitting a boring PTV4 program against a mega-hit teleserye of ABS-CBN in the same time slot.

  8. mundski says:

    I totally agree. The country has devolved not only with what are tangibles but also in ideals and morals. The country is at risk though next year of doubling down on its previous mistake with a BBM or Sara and could delay our natural course to progress through democracy. Is this another learning phase we have to face as a nation? The infighting, especially againsts the loyalists and fanatics, meaning the DDS and Marcos loyalists. They probably wont go away but we couldn’t afford another surge of their kind.

    I would also love to see ABS CBN be back on air as redemption for the damage done against the “critic”, and seeing Delima freed. Then we can probably have something to teach people how to discern a propaganda, and track down the actual propaganda, troll farms and armies. They’ve worsened the problem of miseducation and given it a totally different meaning, to the point of embarrassment. The internet has paved the way for these pervasive propaganda machines, but at the same time has given democracy a ton of space for civic engagement and a voice. We also need technocrats back in the top posts and science at the forefront, under the guidance of a new anti-trapo leadership

  9. NHerrera says:

    Taking off from the current blog topic, I place Day 0 as May 9, 2022, the general election in the PH. We may place Day 1 and Day 2 as those days after that. And the deadline for the filing of the certificate of candidacy on October 8 as Day -213. Preparatory to Day -213, MLQ3 has been Tweeting interesting items.

    MLQ3 is one of those I follow on Twitter. He has been Tweeting the movements of political butterflies as they move from one political party to another [non-parties really, worse than your neighborhood social parties and as forgettable], and the announcements of these butterflies to be Pres candidates of this or that party, etc. One of the more recent items from MLQ3 is this interesting chart he titled, “Speculative Final Slates 2022.” Here is the chart:


    In case the picture comes out blurred in your device, the speculative 2022 slate, per mlq3, has the following Pres-Vp tandems:


    MLQ3 also has his speculative Senatorial Slate in the lower part of the chart, with none appearing below Pac-Pim tandem.

    • NHerrera says:

      Along with the speculation of MLQ3, I have speculation of my own but numbers speculation. Without putting the names of the Tandem from MLQ3’s chart, I looked at the Presidential Candidates (PC) of the Tandem. It is interesting that with the use of some anchor numbers and what we may know of those PCs, that we may make plausible scenarios of the numbers. Here is the heuristic, but first note,

      – Admin corresponds to the Administration’s share of voters sentiments
      – Opp corresponds to the Opposition share

      If we assign a plausible 40-60 share of the Admin-Opp as viewed by the voters in general and note that the grand total is 100, as it should be, we have for the PCs plausible shares the numbers in red. I have not identified the names of the PCs but surely you will know who those names are, from the scenario. Note, as you may already have, that a PC grabs from the Admin/ Opp those shares he may likely get.

      Well, that is my scenario.

      Joe, will you kindly lend me a few bottles of SanMig to give to your bookie Sal and see how he plays the numbers. From the records, he makes an inspired observation from his crystal ball when his brain is stimulated with at least a few bottles of SanMig. 🙂

      • NHerrera says:

        Nope. Pres Candidate in Tandem 3 is not our Pambansang Kamao.

      • JoeAm says:

        Will do, on the morrow.

        • JoeAm says:

          I asked Sal about MLQIII’s projected tandems (Moreno/Sotto, Marcos/Duterte, Pacquiao/Pimentel, Robredo/Trillanes), and your own allocation of 60/40 favoring the opposition.

          “That’s some high-level thinking!” he exclaimed as I passed him your San Mig. “That swap of Marcos for Sara is genius, as she is too principled for that tandem and a team of murderous crooks fits together better. They’ll be attractive to the greedy and angry. I do think Moreno will fold if he is not at the top, so I put him along with Pacquiao as second rung players. The real battle will be between Marcos and Robredo. The 60/40 split, which is about right, suggests Robredo will win 40/35, or even by more. Duterte will be VP though, until the ICC jails his ass.”

          • NHerrera says:

            Thanks. I salute Sal. He is prescient for one. He seemed to have intelligently assessed what the most recent Pulse Asia Survey will show relative to previous surveys — meaning the crucial trend rather than the survey’s absolute numbers or ranking, in both P and VP categories. And that, considering that not all the horses are at the gate and have not started running. Keep that gem of a Bookie engaged, Joe, even if you have to bill me for a sizeable share of future SanMig supply. 🙂

            • JoeAm says:

              Sal did that before the poll came out, showing for a fact that beer is a magic elixer.

              • JoeAm says:

                Speaking of Sal, I showed him this research article and he went off into one of those unstoppable howling gales of laughter. That was 20 minutes ago and he’s finally slowing down to wipe his eyes. Anti-vaxxers have low intellectual humility.


              • NHerrera says:

                Thanks for that link to the research paper.

                I can understand why Sal had “unstoppable howling gales of laughter.” The hypothesis — that intellectual humility is negatively associated or correlated with anti-vaccine attitudes and positively correlated with intention to vaccinate — seems intuitive enough especially to Sal, sober or not. [I too found the hypothesis intuitive enough, and I am sure you did too.]

                The researchers defined clearly what

                – intellectual humility means and its facets;
                – anti-vaccine attitude means and its facets;
                – intention to vaccinate means and its facets.

                Good paper. Though again like Sal, we may laugh — much ado, on what is intuitive? 🙂 But the researchers went through the scientific efforts required to prove their hypothesis statistically, utilizing some 400 participants.

    • NHerrera says:

      As if to confirm MLQ3’s Speculative Final Slates 2022 I mentioned above, Willie Ong said on TV, “bukas ako kung magbabago ang isip ni Mayor Isko sa VP candidate” [Ong is open to the change if Mayor Isko changes his mind on his VP candidate]. A placeholder after all?

      Is Lacson similarly open to change? 🙂


  10. NHerrera says:


    I like this — a quote from an NYT article:

    After Mr. Putin, knowing that Ms. Merkel fears dogs, deliberately summoned his black Lab into the room where they were meeting, she offered a biting explanation: “I understand why he has to do this — to prove he’s a man. He’s afraid of his own weakness.”

  11. Karl Garcia says:

    The Next admins DOH, DTI, DOST should continue the plans to partner with Indias largest vaccine manufacturer
    The Virolology institute must be pushed
    The genome center must be spread nation wide.
    If we need to hire foreign virologists , geneticists,etc to do so then so be it. But after enopugh pinoys have been trained then slowly let them go.

    For procurement have an Executive order to suspend the track record requirement for bidding for a purchase. Aside from it is violated anyway by presidential fly by nights, we must have a solid manufacturing base of quality.
    License plates could have been done here, PPEs could have been done here.

    It seems that we exchange quality for quantity as evidenced by our patis manufacturing and redistribution, repackaging. We just put little amount of fish, the rest are water,caramel and salt and that pwede na or mediocrity should change.

    Tariff protection and subsidies are only for the big boys who can afford a trade war with each other, but small fry like the PH tariff do not protect the small people, it only protects the big guys.
    The big guys just dump their cheap products to the detriment of the poor nations manufacturers and farmers,traders,etc

    Start spending for the Navy and the airforce.
    Spending for the army only exacerbates our local forever wars and the over reliance of the police with the army.
    If resources are dedicated to the navy and the air force, we can concentrate on external defense, the police will handle internal security.
    Make it easier to manufacture ships and planes, choppers here.
    if licensing is the problem then do not make it a problem by asking for a license to manufactureand choice of local integrated supply chain.

    Our car centric infrastructure should change by stopping proposal of those elevated highways, more trains.
    travel ship is more pollutive make all carbon based alternatives non pollutive,

    EOS for FOI, land use,UBI,Wealth tax then make certifications of urgency.
    More LEDACS than weekly cabinet meetings of sweet nothings.

    Internet for all that is non pollutive.

    • JoeAm says:

      Totally agree. The Philippines has 106,000,000 citizens but no ability to manufacture vaccines, weak manufacturing, and small boat-building effort. Leaders seem too busy stealing to do anything constructive.

  12. Karl Garcia says:



    Micha stressed that vaccines should ideally be one time only.We all hope for 1 shot vaccines.

    The MMR happens to have viruses that do not mutate at all. I hope no one makes or even think of a mutating bioweapon of this.

    For polio, it took so long to get rid of this pesky virus and it also needed a one time booster.
    The Common cold has a gazillion variants that is why there is no cold vaccine.
    Flu variants pace of mutation is slow enough to have a vaccine upgrade yearly.

  13. NHerrera says:


    After Germany’s recent election, here is an item from Bloomberg:

    Many Germans view finance as a servant of industry rather than an industry itself. But transforming Germany from a combustion-engine driven economy into something fit for a greener and more digital world requires a dynamic banking sector that can fund investment in technology and offer savers better choices.

  14. NHerrera says:


    Meantime for those who still enjoy toys like toy soldiers, planes, warships, and submarines…

    Here is Grant Newsham, a retired US Marine officer, writing for ASIA TIMES an article titled, “Japan’s defense awakening is not woke enough.”

    An arms race – not really. The Chinese build-up over the last 20-30 years has been the biggest and fastest in history – and despite the fact the PRC faced no enemies. Nowadays, the few countries that have woken up – see Australia and Japan —– are just trying to protect themselves. The Chinese are way ahead of them, unfortunately. Even the Americans are playing catch-up.

    China has caught up, as a senior US Air Force General lamented the other day: “We’re out of time.”

    A Cold War? Yes. One can debate the terminology, but I would suggest the PRC has been conducting a multifaceted war on multiple fronts for the last 30 years against the US and every other country in the region.

    We may have not wanted to admit it or to call it a war – preferring the term “competition” – but Beijing will tell you it’s been a war to defeat its main enemy – the USA – and to teach the Japanese a lesson (and take back the Ryukyu Islands).

    The only thing missing is the shooting. But from Beijing’s perspective, do things right and the war will be over without any fighting – since nobody (including the United States) will be able to resist at any reasonable cost.

    Of course, that is just one man’s opinion.

    • Karl Garcia says:

      Russia has been the willing or unwitting victim to China’s reverse engineering spree, the other tech they have to steal.

      Japan gave their trade secrets literally beginning with panasonic, Japan shrugged off the anti Japanese sentiment of the Chinese and transferred some of their manufacturing to China.

      The Quad is the only hope so to speak.

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